Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Mar 2021 22:32

I posted this on twitter:

https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/137 ... 18466?s=20

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 24 Mar 2021 23:09

Graphs shows that our seniors are relaxing on WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAYS.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 24 Mar 2021 23:17

I noticed very interesting stats on Cowin dashboard with regards to registration:

Total Registrations: 5.37 crores
FLW and HCW: 2.16 crores
Online: 0.79 crores
Walk-in: 2.41 crores

Meaning 2.41/3.2 = 75.2% of the general public has "contacted" Cowin platform through "Walk-ins." To me, it seems the technology may be a bottleneck for seniors getting vaccinated. In my chats with a few of my relatives also I found that they had a misconception that they need to make an appointment online to get the vaccine. When I insisted that they don't need an online appointment, a few of them walked-in to vaccination centers and got their vaccine.

One way the govt. can help accelerate vaccination is by announcing that online appointment helps but is not necessary. Walk-ins are welcome.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 25 Mar 2021 00:27

Technology is a general hurdle yes . The reason I looked at daily data is that there’s an observable trend independent of technology - the older group just shows up most at the beginning and end of week . There’s an opportunity cost in not opening up to general pop in midweek.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 25 Mar 2021 06:19

rsingh wrote:Graphs shows that our seniors are relaxing on WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAYS.

No. It shows government vaccination centers are closed and government distribution of vaccines is stopped - particularly on Sundays.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 25 Mar 2021 06:22

13.54 lakh doses given 24 March 2021 by 7PM IST. Total vaccinations over 5.21 crore (>52.1 million)

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=1707381

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 25 Mar 2021 07:44

Mort Walker wrote:
rsingh wrote:Graphs shows that our seniors are relaxing on WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAYS.
No. It shows government vaccination centers are closed and government distribution of vaccines is stopped - particularly on Sundays.

That’s not the case for the weekdays though - there’s a consistent trend of Tue-Thu being slow days and can be utilized for more coverage of general population.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 25 Mar 2021 08:04

What's the harm in higher paid vaccination lines subsidizing others or increasing production capacity that would not be amortized?

There are many Indian households that won't mind paying extra to have everyone vaccinated. If I was in India, I would even get all my household help get vaccinated too by paying higher.

There are economic returns too by having lesser lockdowns.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 25 Mar 2021 09:01

Moral hazard . Vaccine production is not yet expansive enough that there’s absolutely no question of supply shortage . On top of that, the medical resources are finite . I’m sure people will come up with jugaad ways in which it might be doable but it’s your job to think of every potential way it could go wrong and how you might handle that, too.

Anyone can come up with the one way something works . The really insightful approach is describing all the ways it may not work and then presenting a reasoned argument in favor. People often respond by saying ‘it’s the governments job to consider all the negative possibilities’. Sure, maybe, and that’s exactly why they haven’t done so ? the government is not going to destroy the optics by letting money overtake medical priority .

2.3 million vaccinations on Wednesday . 53.1 million total .

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 25 Mar 2021 11:31

This article has graphs for each state.

India’s second Covid wave

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Mar 2021 13:28

Astra Zeneca revised efficacy numbers

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/03 ... -a-little/

Imagine if this has happened to Bharat Biotech. The media would have denounced the vaccine as quackery. But this is from the white man... Anyway the correct thing has happened and it should be welcomed.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Mar 2021 13:51

via@ANI·20h

The top 10 districts where maximum active cases are concentrated are - Pune, Nagpur, Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, Aurangabad, Bengaluru Urban, Nanded, Jalgaon and Akola. Nine districts from Maharashtra and one fro, Karnataka: Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 25 Mar 2021 19:04

Maybe GoI should announce that an unqualified younger adult bringing a qualified person for vaccination can also get a vaccine.

Anecdote: in mid tier city areas, the average cost paid by an infected person this month in GJ is around 2lacs Rs for being in a private hospital for monitoring. Only surveyed who had received a first dose. All returned home after a week in hospital. Hard to tell if the first dose of vaccine allowed return home or the treatments administered during the hospital stay.

It would have been good idea for a journalist to canvass hospitals to obtain rough idea on bills paid statistics.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 25 Mar 2021 20:41

I think the GoI should increase the limit on the service charge being collected by the private facilities to at least Rs 150 per dose. Without some monetary incentive, it will be difficult to ramp up the number of doses administered per day. You need to enlist small private clinics in urban and rural areas in this effort.There are people who routinely set up mobile diagnostic clinics in the rural areas over the weekeneds, and they do good business. These people are quite capable of setting up mobile vaccination centres in rural areas and administering doses if they see some money in it.

On another note, I think it will take another couple of months for supplies to ramp up to the level required. Sputnik (manufactured by Dr Reddy's), and Novavax (manufactured by SII) will likely be the next ones approved. Then the Zydus Cadilla vaccine. After that it should be possible to administer 5 million plus doses per day.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 25 Mar 2021 21:43

Private hospitals are already allowed to charge up to Rs. 250 per dose. Supplies are the main constraint at this time just going by published numbers of production capacity.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 25 Mar 2021 22:11

1.52 million vaccinations until 7PM thursday. 54.6 million so far. Should be over 55 million by EOD.

I've posted a few pages ago stating those accompanying the eligible group should also be allowed to receive vaccination - ideally the entire household if possible. It's the sanest way to keep the older folks safe while simultaneously arresting transmission rate.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 26 Mar 2021 01:34

ritesh wrote:
Uttam wrote:India delays big exports of AstraZeneca shot as infections surge
Thats a good news. As they say charity begins at home.

Guys, need some clarification:
Dad is due for second shot of covidshield in couple of weeks. However this news of blood clotting is unnerving as he is stroke survivor of 3 yrs. Will it be prudent to get second shot which seems to be behind news regarding blood clotting. Can someone pls guide.

Ritesh Ji, I always say get the vaccine unless there is an absolutely compelling reason you cannot. In this instance there is very little evidence to suggest that the AZ vaccine increases clotting in people without a severe pre-existing clotting disorder. Your father probably had a stroke due to the usual causes, the main culprit being atherosclerosis where the clotting mechanism is normal.

The only controversy at this time appears to be around whether women in the reproductive age group with certain disorders may be more prone to clots with the AZ vaccine, even that is unproven. I used to see a lot of patients in this category come into the ER with DVT of the leg when I was working in the UK. Never saw it in India in all my years. Maybe to do with being on the Pill or some other factor.

Rest assured, your father is going to be fine, just get the vaccination done. It is the only way we can protect ourselves and the ones we love.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Mar 2021 01:51

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-56507988
double mutant variant found in India unlikely to be more severe than SA/UK variants, how ever can penetrate herd immunity to cause severe disease in unvaccinated people

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 26 Mar 2021 02:12

vera_k wrote:Private hospitals are already allowed to charge up to Rs. 250 per dose. Supplies are the main constraint at this time just going by published numbers of production capacity.

vera ji

The Rs. 250 per dose includes Rs. 150 as the cost of vaccine (It is the cost at which the GoI supplies the vaccine to the private facility, and is perhaps the lowest cost of a vaccine dose in the world today).

That leaves only Rs. 100 for the private facility to cover all its costs of facilities, staff, and management spent in administering the vaccine dose.

If I ran a private medical facility in a major city in India, I would not be too keen on participating in the vaccination program, as Rs 100 will be insufficient to cover my costs.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Mar 2021 02:33

so double mutant version found in India is a fusion virus produced by an Indian variant of nCV & California variant of nCV fusing with each other? Can someone explain please?

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 26 Mar 2021 02:45

Looking at the private hospital bills in cities, I don't think that one can get anything for 100Rs at a private clinic. Maybe if a private clinic ran a well oiled full day assembly line where they are collecting 100Rs every few minutes.

On the clot issue. Was not there worry that the virus infection itself causes blood clots? If that's true, then I rather take my chances with a vaccine. Especially, if there's a good chance of getting infected. Getting a routine medical checkup itself provides a good chance of getting infected if one's not well to do money wise.

durairaaj · Post by **durairaaj** » 26 Mar 2021 05:49

Based on experience of my mom, Covishield vaccine causes headache in some people after first dose. But dad did not show show adverse event or response. A relative grand mother showed extreme response of severe head ache. Whereas, the grandpa's was only mild fever.

Head ache indicates possibility of mild blood clot and only women seems to experience this. Men dont exhibit head aches.

My opinion, basing on recent data, is the right dosage regimen should have been half dose + full dose. Giving full dose in the first shot is giving a shock to people, especially women. Unfortunately, no country is running a trial on half dose + full dose. If we do half dose in first shot, we could double the number of vaccinated people and potentially stop the spread.

If some body here can interact with health ministry, please inform them about this.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 26 Mar 2021 06:27

Wonder why this is so.

Chile in 'critical' grip of second Covid wave despite one of best vaccination rates

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 26 Mar 2021 07:36

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-indi ... 59024.html
Coronavirus: 'Double mutant' Covid variant found in India
Thu, March 25, 2021
A new "double mutant" variant of the coronavirus has been detected from samples collected in India.
Officials are checking if the variant, where two mutations come together in the same virus, may be more infectious or less affected by vaccines.
Some 10,787 samples from 18 Indian states also showed up 771 cases of known variants - 736 of the UK, 34 of the South African and one Brazilian.
Officials say the variants are not linked to a spike in cases in India.
India reported 47,262 cases and 275 deaths on Wednesday - the sharpest daily rise this year. The Indian SARS-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics (INSACOG), a group of 10 national laboratories under India's health ministry, carried out genomic sequencing on the latest samples. Genomic sequencing is a testing process to map the entire genetic code of an organism - in this case, the virus.The genetic code of the virus works like its instruction manual. Mutations in viruses are common but most of them are insignificant and do not cause any change in its ability to transmit or cause serious infection. But some mutations, like the ones in the UK or South Africa variant lineages, can make the virus more infectious and in some cases even deadlier.
Virologist Shahid Jameel explained that a "double mutation in key areas of the virus's spike protein may increase these risks and allow the virus to escape the immune system". The spike protein is the part of the virus that it uses to penetrate human cells.The government said that an analysis of the samples collected from India's western Maharashtra state showed "an increase in the fraction of samples with the E484Q and L452R mutations" compared with December last year. "Such [double] mutations confer immune escape and increased infectivity," the health ministry said in a statement. Dr Jameel added that "there may be a separate lineage developing in India with the L452R and E484Q mutations coming together".
Mutations in the spike gene can make the virus inherently "better" at infecting people or can help the virus to escape neutralising antibodies.This means if the virus mutates in the "right way", it can reinfect someone who has already recovered from Covid-19. But scientists say reinfections will be very mild compared to primary infections in people who are vaccinated or who recovered already from an earlier case of Covid-19.
.....
Gautam

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 26 Mar 2021 08:49

2.36 million for Thursday. Now numbers have reliably settled into a 2.3-2.5m rate except Monday crossing 3m. Total 55.5 million.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 26 Mar 2021 11:24

We might go past 100K infections per day in this wave. So far mortality rate is not rising as fast though. Hopefully that is due to improved treatment and less severe cases (vaccination + built up resistance).

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 26 Mar 2021 11:34

vera_k wrote:Wonder why this is so.

Chile in 'critical' grip of second Covid wave despite one of best vaccination rates

Chile has been using mostly Chinese vaccination. To be fair, Israel was also experiencing high daily infections with similar vaccination rate. What it tells me is that we might not be able to get rid of covid by simply getting 30-40% vaccination rates, but would probably need >70% to stop it from circulating within the unvaccinated folks.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 26 Mar 2021 15:56

It seems we had an unplanned lockdown

https://twitter.com/jugalrp/status/1374 ... 05536?s=19

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 26 Mar 2021 19:57

SBI has put together a very interesting report on the second wave of Covid infection. I couldn't find the report itself but here is an article about it.

This caught my eye:

TN and Punjab seem to be most vulnerable. They have a relatively high level of urbanization, density and have vaccinated very few elderly. I don't know when this data was collected. Please share the original report if you can find a link.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 26 Mar 2021 20:40

The ball in the vaccination court is with states now. Center has so far transferred 8.29 crore doses, and states have administered only 5.5 crores and wasted some. A few states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Kerala, Uttarakhand, etc. are performing much better than others. Maybe there should be a quick conference of state health officials to learn best practices from states that are performing better at vaccinations.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 26 Mar 2021 20:45

Highest global COVID-19 contact rate in India

Indian Supermodel for Covid predicts national peak of second wave by mid-April with 70-80K new cases daily.

India is witnessing the world’s highest coronavirus contact rate, whereby an infected person is infecting another one every two days. What is worrying is the massive jump in contact rate this month, according to the Indian Supermodel for Covid- 19. The latest analysis through the model, initiated by the Department of Science of Technology, predicts the peak of the second wave by mid-April, when daily infections will be between 70,000 and 80,000, primarily driven by Maharashtra.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 26 Mar 2021 21:23

MoHFW also has daily state vaccination data:
Statewise Vaccination Coverage March 25 2021

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 26 Mar 2021 21:30

Pfizer begins Covid vaccine trial on infants and young kids

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 26 Mar 2021 22:20

As of 7PM IST today, nearly 57 million vaccinations.
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1707955

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 26 Mar 2021 22:33

It looks like the daily rate has settled down to a stable 2.3-2.5M with Mondays peaking around 3-3.5M, that will not rise until eligibility has been opened up further.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 26 Mar 2021 22:58

Besides the PRC, only the US and India are vaccinating at the highest rate. The US looks consistently over 2.5M/day and India is right there, just slightly behind. I think the PRC wants to boost up its numbers just so they can smack the smug Americans and Europeans and tell them to get their act together.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 26 Mar 2021 23:03

Mort Walker wrote:Besides the PRC, only the US and India are vaccinating at the highest rate. The US looks consistently over 2.5M/day and India is right there, just slightly behind. I think the PRC wants to boost up its numbers just so they can smack the smug Americans and Europeans and tell them to get their act together.

That may be true in terms of vaccines administered per day but not true in terms of vaccine administered / population. For that the leaders Isreal, UAE, UK, Chile, and the US, and a few other smaller nations.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 27 Mar 2021 01:08

Uttam wrote:Highest global COVID-19 contact rate in India

Indian Supermodel for Covid predicts national peak of second wave by mid-April with 70-80K new cases daily.

India is witnessing the world’s highest coronavirus contact rate, whereby an infected person is infecting another one every two days. What is worrying is the massive jump in contact rate this month, according to the Indian Supermodel for Covid- 19. The latest analysis through the model, initiated by the Department of Science of Technology, predicts the peak of the second wave by mid-April, when daily infections will be between 70,000 and 80,000, primarily driven by Maharashtra.

Wishful thinking if we believe we will peak at 70k to 80k. We are in the early weeks of our annual flu season, and it continues to peak until the rains hit, which in the recent years has moved from June to late August. We will overtake last year's daily numbers pretty soon but the CFR will be low as doctors now have an idea on what works and what doesn't. It is imperative we ensure enough supply of o2 and ventilators . The alarming number of people who are coming down with covid after the 1st dose of vaccine is worrying, but we need to remember that one of the things the vaccine is designed to do is reduce the chances of hospitalization and death, which it seems to be doing .

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 27 Mar 2021 01:38

Mort Walker wrote:Besides the PRC, only the US and India are vaccinating at the highest rate. The US looks consistently over 2.5M/day and India is right there, just slightly behind. I think the PRC wants to boost up its numbers just so they can smack the smug Americans and Europeans and tell them to get their act together.

And India, as well. The last article in GlobalTimes smugly reported about how Indians claimed their vaccination drive was world's biggest but it is doing a mere 2 million per day.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Mar 2021 02:00

Looking at data related to production:

Since late January, India has vaccinated 56 million, and domestics stocks are approx 70-75 million from a recent article. It has exported over 60 million vaccines. That is a total of >130 million vaccines produced in 2 months since inception.

Indian mass production started 1-1.5 months later than US and western Europe. China supposedly started making vaccines much earlier, but details are hazy.

This source from end Feb gives the following production timelines:
Pfizer: 130 million vaccines over 3 months, across US + EU production
Moderna: 65 million in 1.5 months
Sinovac: 105 million in 3 months

For single country production, Indian numbers are not necessarily an exaggeration to call the fastest/biggest or whatever. There's no reason to mock them - they're easily on par with or better than much more developed production supply chains elsewhere so far, and their alleged exaggerations much less than others. It's being done without even wartime production rules being applied, as is the case in the US since early February.

The Indian government has been reasonably smart in its actions so far. It knew that during Phase 1 it would not consume all the production, so it chose to export and make some publicity out of that. Exports have decreased since Phase 2 began, and probably have fallen to zero now, given the domestic demand.