2021 Five State Elections

[Kakkaji]

I think many BRF-ites are prematurely celebrating a BJP victory in West Bengal. There could be a proverbial slip between the cup and the lip.

The ‘silent voter’ and minority conundrum: Mamata Banerjee’s traditional vote bank could turn the tide against her

With West Bengal polls heading towards culmination, political strategists may be involved in finding the right political math behind the high voter turnout which the BJP has claimed to be benefitting. In Bengal, there are 3,58,45,115 male voters and 3,40,45,313 female voters. The women voters constitute 48.71 per cent of the total 6,98,91,751 voters. Just like Bihar where women voters have been playing a key role in getting Nitish Kumar back to power, Mamata Banerjee has been banking on women and Muslim voters for her return as Chief Minister for the third straight term. Traditionally, a high voter turnout has mostly resulted in sitting CMs losing the chair.

There are many seats including in Kolkata, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, Hooghly and Howrah where women voters have outnumbered men. If we talk about 44 seats of Phase-IV only, there were 11 constituencies where women voters are more than their male counterparts. In six of these – Sonarpur Dakshin, Sonarpur Uttar, Jadavpur, Tollygunj, Behala Uttar and Behala Dakshin, the women voters have an edge over the male. Of these 11 constituencies, the total number of female voters are 15,70,392 while that of the male is 15,66,161.

The story is not different in other constituencies where the women voters are either nearly at par with the men or slightly lower in number but play a decisive role. While the TMC has come out with ‘Bangla Nijer Meyeke Chai’ (Bengal wants its daughter) slogan to counter the BJP and cash on its ‘outsider’ plank, the party admits it is up against a formidable force. The saffron party has promised many measures including free transportation and reservation in government jobs to lure women voters. Notably, the SCs/STs voters, which have been voting dominantly for the BJP, also include women.

BJP will lose onlee.

[Vips]

^^ Kati's Post

After Amphan Cyclone, the rural and poor folks saw how TMC indulged in massive corruption with funds allocated for reconstruction of only top few TMC supporters in affected areas leaving ordinary TMC supporters high and dry. These and the other suffering silent voters will give Mumtaz Begum her comeuppance.

[ramana]

Kati, Any updates from Satta market?

[chetak]

If one were to turn this "painting" by mumtaz bano upside down,

what would it look like

[disha]

^Tauba Tauba Chetak'ji. Why are you laying a mine field!

[Punjabi]

^Tauba Tauba Chetak'ji. Why are you laying a mine field!

LOL...Its ALL about dimensionality, Coordinates/angles you view things from!...

[Narad]

Unedited video of Sitakulchi Violence.

[Kati]

Mumtaaz Banoo is visiting Cooch Bihar (Sitalkuchi area) today, and whipping up the communal sentiments among the peacefools.
[She is a curse for the country.]
In one video Mumtaaz is seen holding the infant of one of the deceased peacefool who attacked the booth-126.

Latest Satta market is giving BJP 177, TMC 95 and Others 22. It's on youtube already.

[ramana]

So just search for Satta Market Bengal on Youtube?

[Kati]

So just search for Satta Market Bengal on Youtube?

Yes Sir.

[OmkarC]

To temper expectations and have an orthogonal data point - one astrologer whom I trust predicted disappointment for BJP and a Maha style coalition coming up in Bengal with TMC + everyone ganging up to keep BJP out of power.. two bhaijans + TMC + Con-Left alliance.

Hope he is wrong.

[chetak]

There are a spate of muslim videos and muslim interview videos on SM and youtube all praising the BJP and the good and inclusive works done by Modi in the past years.

None of these taqiya interviews and videos existed before the very real possibility of a BJP victory and consequently, the strong possibility of a BJP govt in bengal started to emerge.

lots of bengali muslims are now claiming that they have joined the BJP, and BJP flags have made an impressive appearance in their erstwhile "muslim" only localities and ghettos. Uniformly, all muslims are blaming mumtaz bano and the TMC for atrocities in bengal over the past years.

One muslim video even says that " we kicked out the commies and now we will kick out the TMC" and by unspoken implication: "we will kick in the Hindus"

they are cursing owasi and are also "showing" anger towards the rohingyias.

Not one word however against the unabated illegal beedi influx that has gone on for decades or the CAA or the NRC.

They all know better than all of us that both pak and beediland already have NRC and no non muslim will ever emigrate to either of these countries

dar ka mahul hai ya the obvious taqiya desire to be on the winning side.

they are going by their 1400 year old playbook

[Manish_P]

And yet when the same underlying but overtly polished version of the playbook plays out in TV studios, you asked me not to bring out trojan horses or conspiracy theories, Chetak Saar

[chetak]

And yet when the same underlying but overtly polished version of the playbook plays out in TV studios, you asked me not to bring out trojan horses or conspiracy theories, Chetak Saar

did I do that, Manish_P saar...

my bad and also my sincere apologies.

uncharacteristic of me, to say what I did, but I defer to your recollection.

Rarely get in the way when someone is driving a bus over them.

edited for clarity

[Manish_P]

^ Abs. no offense taken, Chetak saar.

I am a very junior mango man and your illuminating posts over the past many years have had a big hand in providing me with clarity on the behind-the-scenes-going-ons in diverse areas.

[ramana]

Manish it's like a train.
Some are close to the engine while others are close to the guard compartment. And many or not even near the platform.
So with vantage view from the engine should not disparage the rest.
Need to bring them up to speed.
Just posting such media early on with all the FUD going on about Prashant Kishore genius it smacked of takiya.
Just my views.

I try to bring folks to the basis of thinking.

[ramana]

Chetak The IUF Siddique angst is MIM are Deccani Muslims while they are Bengal speaking.
So it's language-based angst.

[fanne]

wronf Info

[chetak]

Chetak The IUF Siddique angst is MIM are Deccani Muslims while they are Bengal speaking.
So it's language-based angst.

copy, saar.

[srikandan]

Now mamta wants to stretch the Security forces thin so she can intimidate the voters and win, like the last time. She and her party plumb new lows everyday. Seem to be getting desperate.

https://indianexpress.com/elections/wes ... t-7275623/

An EC spokesperson said the Commission was not considering “clubbing” the remaining phases, saying it was a legally difficult move as notifications for the poll phases had already been issued.

The Commission pointed out that it had directed the state’s Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) to convene an all-party meeting on Friday to reiterate its instructions on observing Covid-19 precautions during campaigning.

[ramana]

Kati, Chintamani is very hopeful of Phase 5. He thinks wrap up possible.

[Kati]

Kati, Chintamani is very hopeful of Phase 5. He thinks wrap up possible.

Ramana Saar, I want to be cautiously optimistic. Let's see how things pan out in Phase-5

Chetak Saar, true, those videos showing minorities praising NaMo Sarkaar are popping up. Let's step back for a moment. Even after 2014 GE there was
a sudden influx of minorities joining BJP in Bengal, and then it tapered off.The same happened after 2019 GE as well seeing BJP's stock in WB rising. The attitude of some minorities was/is that - "we want to safeguard our interests by sticking to the right party at the right time." For mango abduls joining the party is not a big deal, and they are encouraged provided they eschew typical tantrums. However, some notorious / corrupt minority local musclemen joined (ir wanted to join) BJP, and that made the party insiders make a lot of noise for obvious reasons. For example, in Birbhum district there was huge outcry after local TMC thug Manirul Islam joined the party (but then he left after the outcry). This guy - owner of several brick kilns - is notorious for extortion, and raping tribal (Santhal) women who work at the brick kilns.....

Anyway, in spite of Mumtaaz Banoo's votebank politics, some genuine minority voters want to try BJP for a very practical reason. Muslim dominated Maldah, South Dinajpur, North Dinajpur and Murshidabad districts send a large workforce to work in Gujarat. They come back during vacations, and bring back the stories of prosperity in Gujarat, and how there in govt jobs muslims have 9% representation (compared to less than 2.5% in WB). Also the muslim women are eager to give BJP a chance for two reasons: (a) Triple T, and (b) if BJP can bring economic prosperity in WB then the men won't have to travel that far in search for livelihood. (In deep rural areas some women are fearful that their menfolks might take other wives in distant places.)

Out of 30% minority vote, if even 1% vote for BJP then it would be a game changer.

[Kati]

Chetak The IUF Siddique angst is MIM are Deccani Muslims while they are Bengal speaking.
So it's language-based angst.

There is more to the difference between Owaisi and Abbas Siddiqi.

Owaisi is a western educated polished lawyer, - equally fluent in Hindi and English. He is more of a suave parliamentarian. On the other hand, Siddiqi speaks only in Bengali, has little command on Hindi, and can't speak English, and he is primarily a preacher.

Siddiqi's speeches are intoxicating, he speaks the language of downtrodden, he mixes bengali folklores, Allah Rasul, devotional tunes,.... and to some extent follows the style of a Bengali cultural doyen Kazi Nazrul Islam (the other father figure being Rabindranath Tagore). ...Watch him, he is going to create a new sphere of influence in Bengal. Right now he is just using INC and LF to consolidate his position, and openly says so. Not sure what lays ahead in Bengal if BJP comes to power, and Siddiqi forms a formidable minority opposition. Half of the congratulatory comments for Siddiqi are also pouring in from Bangladesh.

[madhu]

Pratap Simha
1 hr ·
Audio tape of Mamata Banerjee surfaces wherein she openly calls for rallying with dead bodies, threatening locals and instigating CRPF
https://m.facebook.com/MPPratapSimha/vi ... ernal&_rdr

[chetak]

Kerala High Court quashes police FIRs against Enforcement Directorate officials in gold smuggling case

via@PTI_News

[KL Dubey]

Pratap Simha
1 hr ·
Audio tape of Mamata Banerjee surfaces wherein she openly calls for rallying with dead bodies, threatening locals and instigating CRPF
https://m.facebook.com/MPPratapSimha/vi ... ernal&_rdr

MoMo didi is definitely a mental case.

[srikandan]

Mamta Banerjee is not a mental case -- she is an evil drama queen.

People like her and Arvind Kejriwal are great at riling up people when they are in the opposition, but they are incompetent morons who cold not manage the fleas in their underpants. So they just find new ways to pretend it was all someone else's fault, even when they were in charge of the situation.

Mamata Banerjee went on a dharna against the central govt. about some West Bengal issue when she was the CM. Mamta B., Uddhav Thackeray, Chandrababu Naidu, Kejriwal, amarinder singh, and the commies in Kerala follow the same script.

Incompetent criminals in charge usually have only one game in their playbook -- fool the public into believing it is someone else's fault so they can get re-elected by a gullible public with the support of corrupt, mercenary media outlets, and in the mudi who dont rejine, they have a ready made target to blame.

[Vips]

Chetak The IUF Siddique angst is MIM are Deccani Muslims while they are Bengal speaking.
So it's language-based angst.

Siddique has in an interview with Saurabh Dwivedi mentioned that Owaisi came to him for a tie up to fight elections in Bengal, Siddique was positive about it but when the party's shura (committee) wrote a letter to him and asked for a reciprocal commitment in Telangana he did not reply and put up 6 candidates to fight as AIMIM candidates without any tie-up.

Owaisi may be able to win some seats in Muslim majority areas in India but if thinks he can just steamroll past strong and entrenched Muslim regional parties like Siddique's or IUML or AIUDF then he has much to learn.

[Hari Seldon]

Overheard online:

"Amit Shah in one of the rallies says the congress leadership is foreign, the cpm ideology is foreign and the tmc voter is foreign."

Only.

[nachiket]

Overheard online:

"Amit Shah in one of the rallies says the congress leadership is foreign, the cpm ideology is foreign and the tmc voter is foreign."

Only.

He was more specific. He said MB called him and Modi outsiders, while the Communist ideology was imported from China and Russia, Congress leadership was brought in from Italy and TMC voters are infiltrators. The response from the crowd didn't seem too enthusiastic though in the video clip.

[Prem Kumar]

^ Was the response because he was speaking in Hindi?

Anyway, amazing tagline from Shah. I truly enjoy it when Modi-Shah are in election mode. It'll rain 6's & 4's!

[nachiket]

Yes it was in Hindi.

[Kati]

Voting percentage till 5pm is going to top about 80%.

[Ambar]

Has the campaigning been completely suspended in WB given the covid situation or is it only during certain days/hours ? How will this impact voting % and voter enthusiasm ? If there is a suspension of campaigning whom does it benefit ? The incumbents or the challengers ?

In KAR, Yeddi has tested covid positive again along with few ministers from his cabinet. Hope this won't have much of an impact on the by-elections.

[darshhan]

^ Was the response because he was speaking in Hindi?

Anyway, amazing tagline from Shah. I truly enjoy it when Modi-Shah are in election mode. It'll rain 6's & 4's!

Yup, they are actually good at winning elections. Plus they are experts when it comes to election time wittiness.

[Rahul M]

WB state govt employees are openly posting about TMC shenanigans including a secret report by police SP on teh incident @sitalkuchi which says that MB had called the night before & given clear orders to instigate crpf til they are forced to fire.
I think that says it all about which way the wind is blowing.

[ramana]

Kati, Looks like the 5th phase was about 35/45 for NDA.
About 130 already.
Need 148 to form govt.

[Kati]

Kati, Looks like the 5th phase was about 35/45 for NDA.
About 130 already.
Need 148 to form govt.

Ramana Saar, as a test case I studied six Kolkata suburban seats, looked at the various reporting as well as political commentators.

Out of these six seats,
advantage BJP in three seats
advantage TMC in one seat
a total toss up in two seats

Rajarhat Gopalpur Constituency: Advantage TMC
Subhajit Dasgupta (CPIM): young leader, very hard working and has a very clean image
Aditi Munshi (TMC): young housewife and an accomplished kirtan singer and will get women's vote
Samik Bhattacharya (BJP): Very good orator, and has been with the party for a long time. However, this time he is more active in social media than the presence on the ground.

Bidhannagar Constituency (posh Salt Lake area / suburb of Kolkata): Advantage BJP
Abhishek Banerjee (Congress): Not so well-known
Sujit Basu (TMC): Very well-respected leader, maintains a very good contact with common people, his office is always open 24x7 for the people. However, this time people are fed up with his associate bahubalis who reign supreme. In the 2016 state assembly election, people have watched helplessly how these bahubalis captured the booths. Originally was with CPM, was very close to CPM's powerful leader Subhas Chakraborty, but came out due to personal differences.
Sabyasachi Dutta (BJP): Came out from TMC just about two years ago, and before that he was with CPM, and ex-mayor of Bidhannagar till two years ago. Very well articulate, well respected person. Very confident about his victory. Has a good network of his own bahubalis. Has close contacts with BJP's top leaders Subhendu Adhikary and Mukul Roy.

Dum Dum Constituency (Part of Dum Dum Loksabha seat): Advantage BJP
BJP central leaders are keeping a close contact with this constituency, once a red citadel, as this is a prestige fight. They are keeping a close tab on the party candidate, as the constituency also has a large nonbengali voters.
Palash Das (CPM): working extremely hard, and a totally new face.
Bratya Basu (TMC): A leading intellectual, dramatist, stage actor and has had held several portfolios starting with the Education ministry. This time there is an anti TMC wave.
Bimal Shankar Nanda (BJP): Very well-regarded political analyst, very good orator, and an acute anti-leftist. Advantage Bimal-babu.

Kamarhati Constituency: Fifty-Fifty
A photo finish end will be seen.
Sayandeep Mitra (CPM): This time the CPM candidate is going to draw a large number of votes, yet he won't be able to win.
Madan Mitra (TMC): A very colorful leader of TMC. Once a powerful leader of Kolkata taxi union's leader. 
Raju Bandyopadhyay (BJP): A very hardworking street fighter. Always in the forefront of state politics. 

Panihati Constituency: Advantage BJP
An industrial suburb of Kolkata, but in the last two decades it has seen closure of factories one after another.
Tapas Majumdar (Congress): Not much of a factor in this seat
Nirmal Ghosh (TMC): A powerful local political family, and amassed crores of crores of illegal wealth. Speaker of the state house, but local people are very dissatisfied with this person. The existing municipal board, dominated by the TMC, is alleged to have embezzling central funds meant for water treatment facility.
Sanmoy Banerjee (BJP): A very respected local councilor and a good orator. He has been harassed and hounded by the TMC government for raising anti-corruption demands. 

Khardaha Constituency (part of Dum Dum Loksabha seat): Fifty-Fifty
A very important seat, as it has elected the state finance minister (five times CPM leader Ashim Dasgupta, and then TMC's Amit Mitra).
Debajyoti Das (CPM): Very hardworking new face of CPM, and will get a good number of votes, but won't win. The more he cuts the votes, the more harm is he going to do for the TMC candidate.
Kajal Sinha (TMC): A very well-known face and keeps a good contact with the local people, has high hope in this election
Shilbhadra Datta (BJP): A good candidate, and working very hard with the local people. Initially there was some hesitation among the grass root level party workers, but now he has run a smooth campaign.

[Kati]

With a possible sweep in the election, BJP leadership is already chalking out a dream ministry - a bunch of highly accomplished and very competent faces.

CM's position is still a mystery - Dilip Ghosh is a dark horse.

1. But the top five positions include possibly two Deputy CMs - one from the South Bengal, and one from North Bengal (a valid idea, since north is often neglected). Possibly Shubhendu Adhikari (representing the south) and Nishit Pramanik (representing the north).
Among the five top faces, I already mentioned about Dr. Ashok Lahiri - an accomplished economist and held top GoI posts. Dr. Lahiri will be entrusted to take care of the economic revival not only for WB, but also for the whole eastern Bharat.
Next is the Home Minister (including Police department), and it is likely to be held by Lietenant General Subrata Saha (who held vital operational responsibility in Kashmir). It is learnt that Both NaMo and AS want Lt. Gen. Saha take a hard look at the long international border, and make sure that the border is fully plugged, illegal infiltration and jihadi activities are checked as much as possible. The top fibe also includes one of the two women's names - Smt. Locket Chatterjee and Smt. Meena Devi Purohit.

2. Next is the most critical eight names who will hold important cabinet posts (provided they win their respective seats):
Mukul Roy
Banul Supriyo
Swapan Dasgupta
Rahul Sinha
Rantideb Sengupta
Rajib Bandyopadhyay
Mukut Mani Adhikary
Shamik Bhattacharya

3. If Smt Mafuja Khatun wins her seat (Sagardighi) (a tough call) then she will definitely find a berth in the ministry. This has energized the local party workers. Smt. Khatun is one of the nine minority candidates fielded by BJP this time.

4. Each minister will be given a fixed target for the first hundred days, and after that a hard analysis will take place with the central leadership. Based on that analysis, the ministry might be reshuffled and/or expanded.

5, Dr. Shyama Prasad Mukherjee's birthplace is Bengal, and hence BJP is throwing all in its disposal to this Bengal election. If this election is won, It is going to send a powerful message to the far corners of the country. That's why all the top central leaders are visiting the state almost every other day.

[Kati]

AS was asked yesterday while he was campaigning for Mukul Roy about his assessment based on the first four phases. He replied that BJP is expecting at least 92 seats in the first four phases.