India-Myanmar news and discussion

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 04 Apr 2021 23:49

Myanmar protesters paint anti-coup slogans on Easter eggs

"Myanmar’s most senior Catholic, Cardinal Charles Bo, tweeted an Easter message: “Jesus has risen: Hallelujah – Myanmar will rise again!”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... aster-eggs

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 11 Apr 2021 11:16

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/09/india/in ... index.html
India's top court rejects plea to stop Rohingya deportations to Myanmar
Story by Reuters and Manveena Suri, CNN, Fri April 9, 2021
New Delhi- India's Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a plea to stop the government from deporting to Myanmar some 150 Rohingya Muslims police detained last month, paving the way for them to be sent to a country where hundreds have been killed following a military coup.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has been trying to send back Rohingyas, a Muslim minority from Myanmar who have found refuge in India after fleeing persecution and waves of violence over the years.
Two refugees petitioned the Supreme Court for the release of Rohingya refugees detained in the northern Jammu region last month, and to block the government from deporting them. Their plea argued that refugees in Jammu "have been illegally detained and jailed in a sub-jail now converted into a holding center."
Their petition added the Indian constitution -- which states that no person shall be deprived of life or personal liberty -- by principle includes the concept of non-refoulement, which forbids the expulsion of refugees to a country where they are likely to be subjected to persecution.
But Chief Justice Sharad Arvind Bobde said the deportations could go ahead, as long as officials followed due process.
"It is not possible to grant the interim relief prayed for," the judge said in his order. "Regarding the contention raised on behalf of the petitioners about the present state of affairs in Myanmar, we have to state that we cannot comment upon something happening in another country."
......
Gautam

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 11 Apr 2021 11:23

Haresh wrote:Myanmar protesters paint anti-coup slogans on Easter eggs

"Myanmar’s most senior Catholic, Cardinal Charles Bo, tweeted an Easter message: “Jesus has risen: Hallelujah – Myanmar will rise again!”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... aster-eggs

Looks like after Nepal, Whites are ensuring that Jesus is going to rise in Myanmar too by bringing "democracy" to heathens. These Myanmar protestors have not idea how they are being played by White Christians

bharathp · Post by **bharathp** » 11 Apr 2021 21:55

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/09/india/in ... index.html
India's top court rejects plea to stop Rohingya deportations to Myanmar
Story by Reuters and Manveena Suri, CNN, Fri April 9, 2021
New Delhi- India's Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a plea to stop the government from deporting to Myanmar some 150 Rohingya Muslims police detained last month, paving the way for them to be sent to a country where hundreds have been killed following a military coup.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has been trying to send back Rohingyas, a Muslim minority from Myanmar who have found refuge in India after fleeing persecution and waves of violence over the years.
Two refugees petitioned the Supreme Court for the release of Rohingya refugees detained in the northern Jammu region last month, and to block the government from deporting them. Their plea argued that refugees in Jammu "have been illegally detained and jailed in a sub-jail now converted into a holding center."
Their petition added the Indian constitution -- which states that no person shall be deprived of life or personal liberty -- by principle includes the concept of non-refoulement, which forbids the expulsion of refugees to a country where they are likely to be subjected to persecution.
But Chief Justice Sharad Arvind Bobde said the deportations could go ahead, as long as officials followed due process.
"It is not possible to grant the interim relief prayed for," the judge said in his order. "Regarding the contention raised on behalf of the petitioners about the present state of affairs in Myanmar, we have to state that we cannot comment upon something happening in another country."
......
Gautam

conveniently left out in the above report is the advocate standing for the rohingyas
its prashanth bhushan
https://main.sci.gov.in/supremecourt/20 ... r-2021.pdf

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 14 Apr 2021 20:58

With regards to Myanmar troubles :
Just wanted to ask few questions and float a balloon:
With regards to Rakhine state was a part of Mughal India
Chin state part of Manipur kingdom ( control vacillating between Manipur and Burmese), and Myanmar people consider Chin kings as Indians and Chins are fighting a separatist movement.
Not sure if Myanmar will fall apart but in the even of 'Great Mantan' between Unkil/Lizard/Burmese if such a thing were to be encouraged: can India gains these two states as :
1. Already a proposal for Sittwe to Manipur trans-link
2.Solve our problems of 'Chicken neck'
3. Promote further Balkanization and stop Lizard from accessing Bay of Bengal
4. Gain control on Coco islands
I request people to be a bit indulgent with my kite-flying

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 15 Apr 2021 09:13

RSatchi:With regards to Rakhine state was a part of Mughal India
Chin state part of Manipur kingdom ( control vacillating between Manipur and Burmese), and Myanmar people consider Chin kings as Indians and Chins are fighting a separatist movement.

Rsatchiji, That does not sound right. What is the source for this information? AFAIK the Ahom Dynasty (of Rudra Singha fame) ruled that part of NE India/Myanmar almost until the beginning of the 20th century.

Not sure if Myanmar will fall apart but in the even of 'Great Mantan' between Unkil/Lizard/Burmese if such a thing were to be encouraged: can India gains these two states as :

china will not encourage US in its near neighbourhood, when it will lower their own influence with such an action. They will twist the arm of myanmar to bend over to their whims but the Northern areas of Myanmar are not really friendly to China, quite the opposite.
Also, the unintended consequences of creating a spoiler state in the region that is unfriendly to both India and China is more dangerous than any possible gains from the unlikely event of a christian kachin state friendly to India.

1. Already a proposal for Sittwe to Manipur trans-link
2.Solve our problems of 'Chicken neck'
3. Promote further Balkanization and stop Lizard from accessing Bay of Bengal
4. Gain control on Coco islands

If Myanmar is destabilized and there is no cohesive power to hold it in place, it will splinter into warring territories with new power centers, and India may as well give up on 1 and 2 in that case. For economic activity, there needs to be political stability -- militancy and internal conflict do not mix with economic activity and trade.

China has issues with the Kachin tribes which have been converted and are largely christian, and if they are allowed to rise up against the Buddhist Myanmar govt., they will readily flip over to some western christian power and be glad to work against India. So China making its way all the way to the Bay of Bengal is a far better option than some western neo-imperial country creating a few christian republics out of Myanmar.

converted christians have committed genocide of their own people who did not convert -- most recent example being the hutus and the tutsis. Of course, you will not find a single reference to the tutsi genocide mention the religion of the hutus, which is christianity -- the UN even downplayed the genocide until it was over and done with. The tutsis and hutus lived together for centuries until the belgians converted the hutus and left them as warring factions in the early 60s. This kind of bloodletting is highly likely if outside power are allowed to play hyooman rites in India's neighbourhood. China's belligerent warmongering is easier to deal with than this evil shyte that the western christian imperial powers have perfected to a science.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 15 Apr 2021 09:40

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... r-7274006/

Le Drian said that there is a “lot of solidarity” with Aung San Suu Kyi and the government that was “properly elected”. He underlined the “protests against the behaviour of the (military) junta that came out of the coup and that are continuing with their violent action in a more and more serious manner”.
Stressing that the European Union has adopted sanctions against the Myanmar’s military regime, he said they have put an end to all assistance to the Myanmar government. “I believe this is a serious attack against democracy in the southeast of Asia, and we need to maintain international pressure”, he said.

Payne emphasized the importance of working with ASEAN on identifying solutions in response to the military coup.

“The increase in violence and the increasing number of deaths are deeply concerning,” she said. “I strongly support the bringing together of an ASEAN leaders meeting in the coming week, that will occur early next week. And I would hope that that has the ability to press upon Myanmar…the cessation of the use of armed force against civilians, and for a very, very focused examination of the options for a way forward,” Payne said.

The quest for a foothold in the Indian ocean region for the EU and the US is Myanmar -- Sri Lanka is no longer an option because the Chinese have filled the gap after the west sanctioned them post-LTTE. These western neo-imperial ex-colonial countries, including France and Germany and USA, are very concerned about hyooman rites in myanmar because it is the weakest country in the region that is amenable to splintering, with a dash of democracy and a pinch of hyooman rites and a generous helping of religious freedom. Aung San Suu kyi's husband is british as are her sons, so this plan has been in the works for a long time.

Myanmar can be encouraged to take steps to not be a military dictatorship, and that is what the GoI is doing and what Dr. Jaishankar is talking about, but "regime change" of the tatmadaw only helps far away powers with an itch to have a naval base in the region. ASEAN is not going to be playing along with the EU, given how all of the military leadership of ASEAN states attended tatmadaw day (equivalent of Republic day in India)

We should note that these same countries that are so worried about hyoman rites in Myanmar, could not care less if the entire developing world in Africa and elsewhere perished because they have no access to a COVID vaccine. These are the kind of oiseaules who want India to follow their lead on saving "human rights" in Myanmar. The australian descendants of violent criminals from the UK, who put aborigines in cages and treated them like animals even in this century are also very concerned about the rights of humans in Myanmar apparently.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 26 Apr 2021 08:15

https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/a ... and-border

Last week, for the first time in 20 years, regime fighter jets dropped bombs not far from here, on the other side of the river. In this region of incessant warfare, the territory is partly controlled by one of Myanmar's oldest guerrilla groups, the Karen National Union (KNU). This armed group, which has been battling the central government for seven decades, is named after a large ethnic minority, the Karen, who number seven million throughout Myanmar out of a population of about 56 million.

The airstrike came just a few hours after an attack by the KNU, on March 27, against a Tatmadaw strong point a little further north of Mae Sam Laep. Ten Burmese soldiers were killed, including a lieutenant colonel. This was followed by four days of consecutive bombardments — from March 27 to 30 — that both KNU and local NGO sources claim left around 20 people dead and forced some 10,000 to flee into the surrounding jungles

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 26 Apr 2021 08:31

https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/myanmar ... ady-begun/

Philipp Annawitt
Philipp Annawitt is a former advisor to Myanmar’s parliament and government.

Min Ko Naing, a veteran political activist, and a leading figure behind Myanmar’s Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), the legitimate interim government opposing the junta, has put it clearly: Activists opposed to the junta should go to territories held by allied ethnic armed organizations in the southeast. “These territories will become ‘free zones’ where they can continue the fight against the military together with ethnic minorities. Those who remain in the cities will continue their fight by guerrilla protests,” he told Radio Free Asia.

between the junta which took power in the February 1 coup and the broad umbrella of CRPH and ethnic minority organizations that have just formed a National Unity Government (NUG).

The CRPH is similarly locked into confrontation. Its new ethnic allies are suspicious that the National League for Democracy, the ruling party ousted on February 1, will sell them out if presented with a chance at compromise so the CRPH needs to demonstrate firmness. Its political base is mobilized and riled up and is not looking for a return to the status quo ante. “The people of Burma would not accept [a negotiated settlement],” NLD executive committee member Phyo Zeya Thaw told me back in February.

Foreign governments need to recognize the NUG and release to it the funds frozen in bank accounts in the United States, Singapore, and elsewhere. They also need to ensure satellite-based telco is available to the NUG to direct civil disobedience action in Myanmar’s heartland from its base on the border with Thailand. Most importantly, the international community needs to help the NUG in putting its funds to use. This requires access to neighbors’ goods markets and financial systems and their open borders, particularly Thailand’s and India’s. Establishing these channels is vital both for the survival of the NUG and for the large-scale humanitarian operations that will soon be necessary. Any humanitarian support delivered by the junta will be rejected by the civil disobedience movement. Aid delivered through Thailand, on the other hand, could supply both refugee populations in NUG territory and the heartland and thus be more acceptable politically. These tasks are where international diplomatic energy is best focused right now.

The alternative is no smooth ride either: a long and hard-fought contest would see the NUG succeed as the Tatmadaw slowly disintegrates in the face of its glaring contradictions – a fighting force that defines itself of the protector of a Bamar Myanmar, murdering unyielding protesters in Myanmar’s ethnic Bamar heartland and being ground down in fighting stubborn guerrilla armies on multiple fronts in Myanmar’s borderlands.
Once the Tatmadaw starts wobbling, soldiers will defect or desert en masse, and the junta will lose quickly and decisively. Myanmar is no Syria; the junta has no secure political or territorial base to fall back on. Then the rump Tatmadaw will sacrifice the junta leadership to cut a deal and secure its influence within a new federal Myanmar.

What will happen to those sub-state autonomous zones, like the powerful Wa State?

Wa State is economically dependent on China, which supports it financially and provides military and civilian advisors and weapons.[27][28] It shares 82 miles (133 km) of frontier with China.[29]

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 26 Apr 2021 08:35

https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/crp ... government

Myanmar’s acting vice-president was appointed interim prime minister on Friday by the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), a body formed of elected lawmakers from Myanmar’s ousted civilian government.

Under the charter, there are also plans to establish a National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC) to coordinate cooperation among federal democracy forces. The NUCC will include representatives of the CRPH, political parties, EAOs, civil society organisations and CDM groups.

President: Win Myint
State Counsellor: Aung San Suu Kyi
Vice President: Duwa Lashi La
Prime Minister: Mahn Win Khaing Than

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 26 Apr 2021 08:58

https://archive.is/L42cf

Failure to Act Will Lead to a Failed State
By Derek J. Mitchell: Derek James Mitchell (born September 16, 1964) is an American diplomat with extensive experience in Asia policy. On September 4, 2018, Mitchell succeeded Kenneth Wollack as president of the National Democratic Institute.[2]

Most of the protesters on the streets of Myanmar are young. They have had a taste of freedom in the decade since the country’s democratic thaw in 2011. They harbor expectations that were once only aspirations for older generations. Even in the face of ruthless repression, their resistance will continue in a variety of forms. Many young people, for instance, are quietly training to establish a “federal army” to fight back against the Tatmadaw. Their chances against the well-equipped military are slim. But resistance throughout the country will continue indefinitely.

But the Tatmadaw’s historically strong internal discipline makes a split within its ranks highly unlikely.

China, India, Thailand, and other neighboring countries will feel the pressure once again to accept droves of migrants and refugees and reckon with growing lawlessness, violence, and desperation along their porous borders with Myanmar. The region as a whole will become less stable. The institutional credibility of ASEAN, which has so far made little serious attempt to check the new junta, will be shattered. The coup raises the prospect of Myanmar not becoming another autocratic state, such as Cambodia under Hun Sen or Thailand after the 2014 coup,but another Syria: a place of unrestrained destruction and irreconcilable division between a ruling clique and the broad mass of the citizenry.

ASEAN must lead the way. The group should make clear it will not grant Myanmar’s junta legitimacy through a seat at its table except to discuss a resolution of the current impasse. It should sponsor a broad-based dialogue—involving Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, the United States, and others—to forge a united front that delivers a clear and forceful message to the Tatmadaw and makes credible threats to shut off the military’s access to banks, schools, hospitals, and other sources of support should the Tatmadaw fail to end the violence and agree to open discussions with Myanmar’s elected representatives on a path forward.

Those politicians have established a shadow government whose legitimacy as the true representatives of Myanmar’s people should be recognized by the United States and Indo-Pacific countries.

The [US]administration can also underline the urgency and importance of the crisis in Myanmar by assigning a special envoy to coordinate policy with Indo-Pacific capitals.

Through its current wanton brutality, the Tatmadaw has awakened the majority Bamar ethnic group to the violence and the injustices inflicted on Myanmar’s minority ethnic groups for decades. This cross-ethnic solidarity offers the foundation of lasting peace and reconciliation in Myanmar and remains the defining challenge facing the country. The international community should seize this moment of opportunity by making extra efforts to get the military to relent and to create space for more robust interethnic dialogue about the country’s future.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 26 Apr 2021 12:36

If Junta wants to rule, they should adopt the strategy of Pak Army---> Do not rule directly but control the Govt. behind the scenes...
Coup is a bad strategy in the current international environment...

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 26 Apr 2021 13:38

I am sure some of the bleeding edge entrepreneurs are salivating at Myanmar which has the potential to be the new Vietnam which itself is the new China, as a manufacturing hub. Think about it - you need a large, docile, hardworking and cheap workforce and a strong administration to "guide" them. No other country in SE Asia has that profile. Philippines is large but ...ahem... messy like India; same with Indonesia. Malaysians don't want to work hard, Cambodians and Laotians are too small in numbers to matter, Thais have moved on to bigger and better (they are one of 2 major countries with a positive trade balance with China).

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 05 Feb 2022 06:35

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-12-10/

CHAMPHAI, India, Dec 10 (Reuters)
"I tried to run but I got shot again in the upper arm," Za Latt Thwey, who requested that he be identified by the name he uses as a boxer, told Reuters near a safe house in India's Mizoram state, which borders Myanmar.

More than a dozen so-called Chinland Defence Force (CDF) opposition groups have sprung up in the state[CHIN], according to three of the sources, who described an expanding network of fighters whose knowledge of local terrain is a major advantage.

They said the groups had established supply chains, food stockpiles and weapon depots and linked up with a long-established ethnic group called the Chin National Front (CNF) to train in combat and better coordinate operations.

Like the four other fighters Reuters interviewed in Mizoram

In April, some CDF groups met in Camp Victoria, the CNF's headquarters, to coordinate armed resistance against the Tatmadaw, according to the fighter from Hakha.

The CNF, which has a military wing, has become pivotal to the resistance, providing training and other support to several CDF groups across the state, said two fighters and a senior leader of the National Unity Government (NUG).

The NUG, effectively a shadow government, comprises pro-democracy groups and remnants of the ousted civilian administration. It has held talks with foreign officials, including from the United States.

In the early months of the resistance, nearly 2,000 volunteers from Hakha were sent to Camp Victoria for combat training under the CNF, the two fighters said, a level of coordination not previously reported.

Financial support for the rebels in Mindat has mostly come from the Chin diaspora and the NUG, said an ousted Chin lawmaker, who declined to be named.

Through multiple routes, including from India, the lawmaker said food, clothes, medicine and equipment were reaching the rebels each month.

Weapons and explosives were the hardest to procure, according to the lawmaker, the NUG leader and three of the fighters.

The U.S. State Department singled out events in Chin, and Thantlang in particular, in a statement last month urging the military to end the violence.

After the first police defectors trickled into India's Mizoram state in early March, followed by Myanmar lawmakers and thousands of others seeking shelter, the mountainous border province has become a buffer zone for Chin guerrillas.

Mizoram authorities estimate around 12,900 people have crossed over from Myanmar, including 30 ousted state and federal lawmakers, according to a senior Mizoram police official who declined to be named.

Some of the lawmakers and leaders have been helping the resistance, and as fighting intensifies they are seeking to unify and support the rebels.

The NUG wants to bring all armed resistance groups under a single command with the assistance of the CNF, said the Chin lawmaker and senior NUG leader.

CNF's Salai Htet Ni said the group and the NUG had agreed to work together, with the CNF "taking a leadership role in Chin State's defence and military warfare."

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 05 Feb 2022 06:55

Through multiple routes, including from India, the lawmaker said food, clothes, medicine and equipment were reaching the rebels each month.

Weapons and explosives were the hardest to procure, according to the lawmaker, the NUG leader and three of the fighters.

lawmakers, my foot. These are all militants who are aiming for violence in the region, which will do not good for India's securtiy either. Otherwise, why would they be complaining about the lack of bombs and weapons in the same breath as they talk of law and order, being "lawmakers" and all. These NUG should be thrown out back to Myanmar. hopefully none of this facilitation of US officials meeting Myanmar armed militant groups like NUG is being facilitated by India - that would be self-defeating.

The NUG, effectively a shadow government, comprises pro-democracy groups and remnants of the ousted civilian administration. It has held talks with foreign officials, including from the United States.

Also, what multiple routes? there is only India and Myanmar. Makes no sense.

These troublemakers from myanmar should be promptly handed over to the Junta, if we expect the Junta to assist us with anti-India rebels in the future. Nagaland recently showed how easy it is to create instability with fake intelligence, by the same people who want myanmar to fall apart,

https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/my ... eting.html

Some drama going on with ASEAN -- Hopefully GoI is filling the vacuum. Myanmar Junta is the only one stopping the place from breaking apart, which would play right into the hands of western powers, who would have the capability to create new ports and operate independently in the Indian Ocean, out of these newly formed independent states.

The military regime is increasingly isolated on the international stage, with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s January visit to the capital Naypyitaw the first by any foreign leader since the Myanmar military seized power.

As long as ASEAN controls the agenda and keeps it out of reach of the racist white colonial crowd(USA/EU), neighbouring countries have a vested interest in the stability of Myanmar and will work to keep it intact.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 11 Aug 2022 03:00

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/shootou ... er-3238461
Shootout Between Militants, Forces At 2 Locations On India-Myanmar Border
This comes days after militant groups in the region called for a boycott of Independence Day celebrations.
Ratnadip Choudhury, August 09, 2022
Guwahati: Heavy exchange of fire between militants and security forces took place at two locations on the India-Myanmar border in the Northeast today.
This comes days after militant groups in the region called for a boycott of Independence Day celebrations.
The first incident took place near Pangsau Pass in Arunachal Pradesh. The government said in a statement that militants fired at Assam Rifles personnel from across the India-Myanmar Border early this morning in the Tirap Changlang area.
A group comprising militants from NSCN(KYA) and ULFA(I) attacked the Assam Rifles camp, said sources. The militants used Rocket-Propelled Grenade and Lathode Bombs, the sources said.
The Assam Rifles personnel responded by firing at the militants. No casualty has been reported, a source said. A junior commissioned officer suffered minor injury in his hand, a government statement has said.
.....
Gautam

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 21 Oct 2022 16:58

while we are most engrossed in slavic wars, conflicts closer to home have taken an interesting dimension

https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/achie ... civil-war/

The acting president of Myanmar’s National Unity Government, the parallel civilian government which is fighting the junta that took power in a 2021 coup, recently claimed that resistance forces now control half of the country

https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/nu ... itory.html

On Monday, the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M), an independent group of prominent former United Nations (UN) human rights experts, said that their analysis has found that the NUG and resistance organizations have effective control over 52 per cent of Myanmar’s territory.

SAC-M said also that the Myanmar military can only claim to have stable control over 17 per cent of the country, as its rule is being actively contested elsewhere.

The group noted also that the regime is unable to govern and is reduced to being an occupying military force in a diminishing amount of territory.

Meanwhile, resistance organizations including the NUG, EROs, people’s administrative bodies, the Civil Disobedience Movement and other civil institutions are administering an increasing range of government functions and delivering services to millions of people.

The de-facto leader is one Duwa Lashi La, of Kachin descent, there is some Kachin population in Arunachal Pradesh

To prevent this outcome, the United States, regional partners, and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations should work more strategically with the National Unity Government and ethnic armed groups. While military aid is off the table for many countries, more can be done to strengthen the opposition’s political strategy and local governance. Engaging more effectively with ethnic armed groups to improve inter-ethnic relations is also critical to prevent fragmentation and help build the unity that the opposition needs to prevail.

Today, multiple ethnic-based conflicts in frontier areas are converging with an armed revolutionary movement across the interior, where the military used to recruit most of its members from the country’s ethnic Bamar majority.

The year ahead is a critical time for the National Unity Government, its armed allies, and ethnic armed groups seeking to create a federal democracy in Myanmar. If the United States and its Asian allies want a strategic partner instead of a chaotic pariah state, now is the time to take greater risks and engage more effectively with the opposition government and rebel groups.

https://www.jurist.org/news/2022/09/mya ... ingya-nug/

Last Wednesday, 14 September, 2022, U Kyaw Zaw, the spokesperson for the office of Duwa Lashi La, Acting President of the Myanmar NUG [the National Unity Government shadow administration formed in response to the Myanmar military junta that seized power in February 2021] published a personal statement (first released in English and then in Burmese) apologizing to “my Rohingya countrymen and countrywomen” for the misleading and harmful words he said he had used when he served as a witness at a Canada Senate Standing Committee on Human Rights on October 2, 2017. He admitted that regardless of his intention, his attempt to protect the civil government of the time by downplaying and denying the Rohingya genocide was morally wrongful and that he blindly relied on wrong facts. He also expressed his commitment, as a spokesperson currently serving the National Unity Government, to encourage the NUG to be more proactive on human rights and to establish a genuine ‘federal democratic union.’

This is not the first time an NUG official has released a personal statement expressing a change in their stance on the Rohingya. The Minister for Women, Youth and Children’s Affairs Susana Hla Hla Soe has also publicly apologized for her ignorance when serving as a parliament member for the past five years before the coup

https://www.stimson.org/2022/the-nugs-e ... -military/
basically a roadmap on what to do to destabilise your opponent and fukup your country forever more, very interesting, no kabuki theatre business, everything is open, from bombing critical infrastructure to attempting assassinations

In a 31 July speech, Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing extended the country’s state of emergency for an additional six months, in which time he also pledged to stabilize the economy. It was an interesting admission.1 If the bad news on the military front isn’t penetrating the fortress capital Naypyidaw, there’s a sign that the desperate economic conditions are starting to. While the junta has taken significant battlefield losses, the rapidly imploding Myanmar economy is their real vulnerability—and must be the NUG’s priority.

Min Aung Hlaing and his deputy Soe Win are now starting to purge the State Administration Council (SAC) and concentrate power in their own hands, retiring fellow generals and empowering a new generation of military loyalists personally bound to them.8 In August 2022, they began the purge and replacement of regional military commanders, 9 always a sign of weakness and insecurity.

There are also analysts who believe that Soe Win believes that Min Aung Hlaing has been too soft on the opposition and has let things get out of control; Soe Win could be plotting his own putsch, which would unleash an orgy of violence.10

Myanmar’s GDP contracted by 18%in 2021, and estimates for 2022, including the World Bank’s forecast of 3% growth, are wildly over-optimistic.11 Inflation has never been higher, hitting nearly 18% last quarter, with rice prices up 20%. Indeed, rice prices increased by 50% since the coup.12 40% of the population is now living under the poverty line. Meanwhile, foreign investors continue to head for the door; what little new investment is from China or Myanmar money returning via Singapore. Exports other than oil and gas have fallen. (Nevertheless, oil and gas revenues remain robust. The SAC claims that it earned $800 million in gas exports from April to July 2022, alone.13
There is such a shortage of foreign exchange that the government has had to impose currency controls. The government’s currency controls include forced conversion of foreign currency earnings at a below-market exchange rate. Foreign exchange is sold to businesses at the black market rate, with the net effect of crippling imports. The kyat is now trading at a record low, of 4,500/$1, and is thought to slide to 5,000/$1, while the official conversion rate was set at 2,100, up from the 1,800 peg.14 On 31 August, the Central Bank announced that they would spend an additional $200 million trying to defend the collapsing kyat. 15 Businesses are reeling from constant shifts in Central Bank policies.

Myanmar’s financial system is on the ropes. Immediately after the coup, there were runs on banks, and ATMs still are often without cash.16 The breakdown of mobile banking has done irreparable harm, especially to farmers and local merchants, who after many years embraced mobile banking. Other banks have been staffed with military officers to monitor transactions.

The farmers have been hard hit. The prices of urea fertilizer doubled and pesticides more than tripled.

The main responsibility of the NUG’s Ministry of Finance, Planning and Investment (MPFI) is to raise funds for the revolution.36 And they have done so with creativity and tech savviness, including raising some $40 million through the sale of zero-yield crypto bonds, issued in the Czech Republic.37 The NUG has held digital lotteries, imposed voluntary taxes, coordinated domestic and international donations, and auctioned off assets, including a recent auction of 400 plots, at either $12,800 or $32,000.38 All 400 plots sold within a day and 300 more plots will be auctioned soon. It has eschewed the illicit economy, raising money as the state that it seeks to be.

Indeed, the NUG’s problem has not been raising money but moving and spending it. In December 2021, the MPFI announced that it would use Tether, a blockchain crypto stablecoin currency as an official currency. The decision to use Tether was also in defiance of the Central Bank of Myanmar’s 2021 ban on cryptocurrencies. Then in June 2022, the MPFI announced NUGPay, a soon-to-be-released digital peer-to-peer payment platform using the Digital Myanmar Kyat (DMMK). It will be the first Central Bank digital currency in Southeast Asia. It will also have its own mobile app akin to a digital wallet like Apple Pay. To prevent speculation and maintain stability, the DMMK will be pegged to the US dollar; avoiding the unstable kyat. Because it is a distributed-ledger system using blockchain technology, hackers for the SAC government will be unable to dismantle this end-run around the formal banking sector controlled by the military.

t’s unclear whether the NUG would try to threaten states like India, which are lending funds to the junta at present. That would probably be counter-productive, but at least the NUG has tried to shut off access to private capital markets.

One of the key sources of revenue for the junta is its network of pipelines across the country. The government earns roughly $14 billion from oil and gas rents and pipelines to China and Thailand, accounting for 10% of government revenue.63 A parallel oil and gas pipeline crosses the country from the port of Sittwe to the Chinese provincial capital of Kunming in Yunnan province. A second gas pipeline goes from the Yadena gas field to Bangkok.

The NUG has focused on pressing foreign investors to withdraw from lucrative oil and gas projects as well as to sanction the Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE). Though Total and Chevron (reluctantly) pulled out, Thai and Korean firms filled the gap.64 Likewise, only the European Union has sanctioned MOGE; the United States has apparently given it a pass to accede to Thailand’s demands for energy security. Nonetheless, the US Congress may force the Biden administration’s hands, by requiring sanctions on MOGE in the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act.

As such we have begun to see the PDFs take matters into their own hands. In August 2022, PDFs set off two bombs on the gas pipeline.65 Though they did not shut the pipeline down beyond a temporary delay, it was a signal to Bangkok. The Chinese-owned pipelines, which cost roughly $2 billion to construct, are trickier. As much as the NUG does not want Chinese rents to go to the military, they still need China and hope that it will be an important source of leverage. More importantly, attacks on the Chinese pipelines would put significant pressure on their ally, the Kachin Independence Army, and their partner, the Arakan Army. Maintaining those close ties is far more important to the NUG, especially as the military has increased military actions against the Arakan Army in Rakhine State, a new front that they can ill-afford.

There is a clear concern about a Chinese overreaction should their pipelines be attacked. But the longer the conflict drags on, the more PDFs will demonstrate less diplomatic restraint.

While the NUG, its PDFs, and the EROs can slowly hollow out the military as a fighting force, they do not have the resources to sustain a prolonged war of attrition. The NUG is not going to win a decisive clear-cut military victory. Therefore, it needs to focus on the regime’s critical vulnerability, which is the economy. This has to be their military priority in the coming months. They will do this through targeted assassinations, lobbying for more international sanctions on the regime’s businesses and banks, denying the regime revenue, and attacking the regime’s logistic nodes, amongst other things.

the nug has an official site, full with media statements and the like
https://gov.nugmyanmar.org/

Varoon Shekhar · Post by **Varoon Shekhar** » 21 Oct 2022 19:13

Right thinking people, particularly Indians, should be sickened that a good person and friend of India, like Aung San Sui Kyi is going to be in jail probably for the rest of her life. Totally unacceptable.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 21 Oct 2022 19:24

Varoon Shekhar wrote:Right thinking people, particularly Indians, should be sickened that a good person and friend of India, like Aung San Sui Kyi is going to be in jail probably for the rest of her life. Totally unacceptable.

She enjoyed Indian hospitality and support and then sided with China. India needs to do whatever is in it's own interests, geopolitics is not about morals or friendship.

Varoon Shekhar · Post by **Varoon Shekhar** » 21 Oct 2022 19:36

^ Oh, definitely, India must engage the Myanmar military. It is absolutely vital. European censures of India are utterly hypocritical, impractical and useless. But Aung San doesn't deserve to be in jail, certainly not for the duration of her life. That's abominable.

titash · Post by **titash** » 21 Oct 2022 23:30

Varoon Shekhar wrote:^ Oh, definitely, India must engage the Myanmar military. It is absolutely vital. European censures of India are utterly hypocritical, impractical and useless. But Aung San doesn't deserve to be in jail, certainly not for the duration of her life. That's abominable.

Politics is a game of power. Sometimes you get to be the king (and it's good to be the king). Sometimes you get the danda up your backside. That's the name of the game.

The list of democratic leaders who got shafted is long and distinguished...Salvador Allende, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, Zulfi Bhutto, Benazir Bhutto, Mujibur Rehman, Nawaz Sharif, Ranasinghe Premadasa, Suu Kyi, JFK, Abraham Lincoln to name a few

One should always feel sorry for what happened, but whether or not one acts upon said feeling should depend on the expected blowback

In this case, keeping the Myanmar junta happy may screw the average Burma-walla but will ensure more stability and fewer deaths on India's side of the fence due to cooperation on counter-insurgency. Its a no brainer.

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 22 Oct 2022 00:02

Well after 70 odd years surely Myanmar people should fight for their democracy if they are really so keen. There is a lot of Chinese influence on the streets , at least we should have a govt that will help us as needed and secure our borders. Akhand Bharat first needs secure Bharat.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 22 Oct 2022 10:12

what comes before determines what comes after, the situation in Myanmar did not arise in a vacuum, it is imperative to gain an understanding of the eastern wing of the bob, selective myopia is redundantly short-sighted and detrimental to future progress. Bear in mind that the majority bamar are themselves immigrants to myanmmar, they started north of the himalayas, and gradually got enmeshed in the south asian social fabric of life.

The questions to be asked are:
1) what does the tatmadaw want?
2) what does the nug want?
3) what does us want?
4) what does china want?
5) what does india want?
6) what do the common people want?
in that very particular order only. Based on my understanding:

1) an isolationist, hermit-like state ala the state of the glorious leader. Initiated coup in 1962, formed a quasi-socialist / communist bloc, very anti-west, might have been a blowback from colonial days, explicitly forbade money transactions by ford foundation into the country, so they are right on the dot on certain issues

Initiated crackdown against rohingya in retaliation, but also initiated crackdown against buddhist monks (of the majority bamar) who were protesting food insecurity and poor handling after cyclone nargis.

Are they then like our neighbours to the west? acre of jungle land for timbre farming after retirement? and corner plots for river trading outposts?

2) the pro-democracy faction, for the moment at least, has publicly apologised for the rohingya exodus, head is a kachin that have led several secession movements against the central government (mostly tatmadaw, but also during the reign of democratic rulers). Has ties with extremist movement(s) of ne, funding is mostly sourced from ancient myanmar foes to the south and some from the south-east.

May include aspirational (common) peoples as well, short-term priority is to be rid of the military, or at least transfer it to pliable quarters.

3) might have funded nug through the patented "freedom and democracy programme", asset freeze of tatmadaw, usual litany of sanctions against bad state actors, but curiously asset freeze of the nug as well (to the tune of 1B usd), ultimate goal unclear at this stage.

4) shan and kachin are proto-chin, china has not publicly sided one or the other, but also remember not so long ago when myanmar held air raids and bombing campaigns in their north inside china's territory? do not hear much about that now

5) peace, stability, the usual chai-biskoot, long relations with tatmadaw, no public statement of any sort

6) aspirational, may be short-termed, universal dreams of fried chicken, apple watches, and netflix? maybe? myanmarese online have mostly been jaded and cynical of their situation, do not know

Please add for a greater understanding

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 16 Mar 2023 01:11

https://www.firstpost.com/world/china-p ... 98342.html
China, Pakistan pull a fast one on Myanmar, deliver junk fighter jets
The JF-17 fighter jet, which has been jointly built by China and Pakistan, has become a burden for the Myanmar Air Force
Ajeyo Basu, March 15, 2023
Yangon: The decision to buy JF-17 fighter aircraft from China and Pakistan has come back to haunt Myanmar. The JF-17 fighter jet, which has been jointly built by China and Pakistan, has become a burden for the Myanmar Air Force.
According to an ET report, Pakistan has had to send a team of engineers to Myanmar to fix these JF-17 fighter jets. Myanmar currently has 11 JF-17 fighter jets but none are currently operational due to technical glitches.
All the JF-17 planes, which were sold to Myanmar by Pakistan, have developed structural cracks and other technical problems. Myanmar, which is engaged in a conflict against rebel groups, lacks the technical expertise to deal with the JF-17 problem on its own.
Myanmar signed the contract to purchase JF17 fighter aircraft jointly developed by China and Pakistan in 2016. However, these planes started developing malfunctions and structural flaws in 2022.
China, Pakistan and Myanmar had hoped that the JF-17 deal will enhance the defence partnership between the three nations. On the other hand, Myanmar Air Force officers are going to Pakistan for a 6-month training stint.
......
Gautam

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 31 Mar 2023 19:19

Is Myanmar building a spy base on Great Coco Island?

New satellite imagery shows mysterious construction on an archipelago close to a strategic Indian navy outpost...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Apr 2023 20:56

When India gave up Cocos Islands to Myanmar, it was not for them to lease to China.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 03 Apr 2023 01:47

ramana wrote:When India gave up Cocos Islands to Myanmar, it was not for them to lease to China.

~~Can the islands be taken back now because they are leasing them to China? Was there a written agreement laying down the conditions on which they were given those Islands?~~

As per my reading of the Wikipedia article, this is not possible.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 07 Apr 2023 21:19

India confronted Myanmar about Chinese spy post on remote island

India has confronted Myanmar in recent months with intelligence showing that China is providing assistance in building a surveillance post on a remote island in the Bay of Bengal, according to Indian officials with knowledge of the matter.

Indian government representatives at various levels have shared satellite imagery with Myanmar counterparts that they said depicted Chinese workers helping to construct what appears to be a listening post on the Coco Islands in the Indian Ocean, said the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information. The workers were also seen extending an airstrip, they said.

In the meetings, representatives from Myanmar’s ruling junta denied any Chinese involvement and dismissed India’s concerns, the officials said. Still, India remains worried that the infrastructure will allow China to monitor communications from naval bases and track missiles from test sites on its eastern coastline, they said.

Major General Zaw Min Tun, a spokesman for Myanmar’s ruling State Administration Council, called the allegation that China was building a spy facility in the Coco Islands “absurd.” He denied that the topic ever came up with Chinese or Indian officials, and said Myanmar would never allow access to foreign troops.

“Myanmar and India always have discussions at many levels, but there was no specific discussion on this issue,” he said. “The Indian government already knows perfectly well that only Myanmar security forces are based there, and they are doing defense activities for their own country.”

In a response to questions, ministry of external affairs spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said the country would take “necessary measures” to safeguard its interests.

“The government keeps a constant watch on all developments having a bearing on India’s security,” he said.

The Chinese ambassador to Myanmar, Chen Hai, who met with some junta ministers earlier this week, didn’t respond to a request for comment. China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t immediately reply to questions.

Military tensions between India and China have risen since 2020, when the worst fighting in decades erupted on their Himalayan border. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has also taken action to restrict Chinese apps in India and woo foreign investors looking to diversify away from the world’s second-biggest economy.

Reports that Myanmar allowed a Chinese signals intelligence facility on the archipelago have been circulating since the 1990s. The issue came into focus again last week after London-based policy research group Chatham House released a report speculating that Myanmar was militarizing the Coco Islands, with the intention of conducting maritime surveillance operations in the area.

India has assessed that China has no offensive military capabilities on the specific island — Great Coco Island — and Chinese research vessels used for snooping in the Indian Ocean haven’t docked there to avoid stoking suspicions, the officials said. They added that no Chinese personnel are stationed on the islands permanently, even though the workers show up often to help set up equipment.

India plans to continue pressing Myanmar’s junta to block China from operating the spy post, the officials said, but they assess that the generals have become more economically dependent on Beijing since a 2021 coup brought several rounds of sanctions from the US and Europe.
China is Myanmar’s largest trading partner, and has invested in ports and energy pipelines in the Southeast Asian nation as a way to bypass the Strait of Malacca, which would be a choke point in any wider Asian conflict.

India has a military facility in the Andaman and Nicobar Island group less than 60 kilometers (37.2 miles) away from the Coco Islands. The nation is ramping up its capacity in that island chain, the officials said, without giving more information.

China’s surveillance activities came under the spotlight earlier this year when the US shot down an alleged spy balloon flying over its territory, a move that derailed plans for more engagement after US President Joe Biden met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Indonesia last November. The Pentagon said last week the balloon managed to gather intelligence from military sites, but the US was able to limit what it collected.

The US has warned of Chinese efforts to establish military installations in other parts of Asia. The Pentagon last year said that facilities at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base “will be the first PRC overseas base in the Indo-Pacific,” even though the government in Phnom Penh has repeatedly denied the accusation.

Beijing has also sought to gain a foothold in the Pacific. China Civil Engineering Construction Co. won a tender to redevelop an international port in the Solomon Islands, Reuters reported last month. Samoan Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa remarked at the time there were fears that “it might move into something else,” such as a dual-use military and civilian port.

Martin Meiners, a Pentagon spokesperson, said the US is concerned that China is “seeking to establish a global network of logistics and basing infrastructure that will allow the PLA to project and sustain military power at greater distances.”

While he didn’t comment on the alleged Chinese activities in the Coco Islands, Meiners said a particular concern is “the lack of transparency and clarity around the terms it negotiates with host countries and the intended purposes of these facilities.”

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 07 Apr 2023 22:42

^^Warn them that the facility will be bombed if INdia's security is threatened. It can be India's Cuba moment - what if China stations missiles on the island?

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 08 Apr 2023 02:19

sanjayc wrote:^^Warn them that the facility will be bombed if INdia's security is threatened. It can be India's Cuba moment - what if China stations missiles on the island?

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 08 Apr 2023 06:39

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 09 Apr 2023 05:16

Is it time to upgrade Quad to a more military nature?

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 11 Nov 2023 06:40

with the focus on all the sexy wars in the world, this unglamorous one goes unnoticed:

https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/brotherho ... narrative/

The stunning Blitzkrieg of Operation 1027 in northern Shan state over the past two weeks will possibly go down as the most pivotal and daring feat of arms in Myanmar’s many decades of civil war.

In the early hours of October 27, combined forces of multiple ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and a handful of allies attacked Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF) installations along the border with China and down the main highway linking Mandalay, Lashio and Muse.

The key border posts of Chin Swe Haw and Mong Ko were seized along with 80 military and police bases. More than 120 military bases have since been overrun and sizeable amounts of arms and ammunition seized, including reportedly a number of 14.5 heavy machine guns (HMGs) that can be operated in an anti-aircraft capacity, vital for countering MAF helicopter gunships and fighter jet attacks.

The operation was planned and spearheaded by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprising the ethnic Kokang Myanmar Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA), along with allies the Bama Peoples Liberation Army (BPLA), the reformed Communist People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Mandalay People’s Defense Force (MNDF).

It is too early to assemble a clear picture of the multidimensional operation. The MAF is still sending resupply columns to the theater of operations, which the TNLA and MPDF are reportedly ambushing on the main road around Kyaukme close to Mandalay Region. Heavy use of air power and artillery, including Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), are harassing the alliance forces but ultimately ground troops must retake territory.

the 3 brotherhood in question:

The Three Brotherhood Alliance (Burmese: ညီနောင်မဟာမိတ်သုံးဖွဲ့), also known as the Brotherhood Alliance, is an alliance between the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army formed in June 2019.

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (Burmese: တအောင်း အမျိုးသား လွတ်မြောက်ရေး တပ်မတော်; abbreviated TNLA) in Myanmar (Burma), is the armed wing of the Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF).

The TNLA is known for their opposition to drug trade, conducting operations where they actively destroy poppy fields, heroin refineries and meth labs.[7][8][9][10][11] The TNLA claims that they arrest opium smugglers regularly and the narcotics seized are publicly burned on special occasions to deter drug trade.

The group was formed on 12 March 1989, after the local Communist Party of Burma leader, Pheung Kya-shin (also spelt Peng Jia Sheng or Phone Kyar Shin), dissatisfied with the communist government, broke away and formed the MNDAA.[6] Along with his brother, Peng Jiafu, they became the new unit in Kokang.[7] The strength of the army is between 1,500 and 2,000 men.[7]

The rebels soon became the first group to agree to a ceasefire with the government troops. Thus the Burmese government refers to the Kokang region controlled by the MNDAA as "Shan State Special Region 1", indicating the MNDAA was the first group in the area of Shan State to sign a ceasefire agreement.[6] After the ceasefire, the area underwent an economic boom, with both the MNDAA and regional Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) troops profiting from increased opium harvests and heroin-refining.[8] The area also produces methamphetamine.[9] The MNDAA and other paramilitary groups control the cultivation areas, making them an easy target for drug trafficking and organised crime groups.[9] The Peace Myanmar Group allegedly launders and reinvests MNDAA's drug profits into the legal economy.[10]

The Arakan Army purportedly advocates for self-determination for the multi-ethnic Arakanese population, the safeguarding and promotion of the national identity and cultural heritage of the Arakan people, and the "national dignity" and best interests of the Arakan people.

In an interview with the Arakha Media (AKK) conducted in August 2021, Commander-in-chief of the Arakan Army clearly stated that the political objective of the armed revolution is to restore the sovereignty of the Arakan, and there had been no bargaining in the attempt to regain the lost sovereignty and there would not be in the future either.[13][25]

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 16 Nov 2023 17:05

a very exhaustive look on the conflict in various places, good primer for anyone following this one

https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/no-good-o ... ed-regime/

The Myanmar military’s commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung and his generals in Naypyidaw’s war room are now facing their own “Falaise Pocket” moment in the shape of an insurgent offensive that has swept across the north of Shan state over the last two weeks.

The trio includes the mainly ethnic Chinese Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which is spearheading operations in and around Kokang in the far northeast of the state; the ethnic Palaung Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), which dominates the northwestern hills and operates along the Mandalay-Muse highway; and the ethnic Rakhine Arakan Army (AA), which is based in Rakhine state on Myanmar’s western seaboard but which fields a contingent of around 1,500 troops alongside its allies in the north of Myanmar.

Within the first two weeks of hostilities, Brotherhood forces had seized several towns along the Chinese border, including importantly Chin Shwe Haw and Namkhan, and overrun scores of military bases and posts capturing huge stocks of munitions.

One option would involve the launching of a major counteroffensive aimed at retaking the economically vital trade artery that runs from Mandalay in central Myanmar to the trade hub of Muse on the northeastern border with China which remains under regime control.

Another would be to attempt to retain strongholds in northern Shan state anchored on the regional capital and headquarters of the Northeastern Regional Military Command (RMC) in Lashio city and fight for time.

A third would entail a bold decision to undertake a strategic withdrawal from the north Shan region and possibly also eastern Shan state, pulling out troops and where possible hardware while there is time to bolster defensive lines around the heartland centers of Mandalay and the fortress capital of Naypyidaw.

All three options have pros and cons. Anchored on the garrison city of Pyin Oo Lwin in the hills overlooking Mandalay, a big push counteroffensive backed by air power and armored forces that to date have been little deployed in the conflict would serve to restore the flow of trade with China.

Practically speaking, it would also effectively mean surrendering Shan state east of the Salween River to the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which would emerge from behind the wall of its ceasefire with Naypyidaw and in a matter of days join up Wa territory along the Chinese border with the separate swath of territory it already controls along Shan state’s southern border with Thailand.

Northern Shan state will be reinforced where possible to attempt a protracted defense of Lashio and Muse while assets under the two RMCs in Keng Tung and Koilam will be left in place to be overtaken by events in Myanmar’s national heartland – and then very probably face the ignominious prospect of having anyway to surrender to the UWSA.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 16 Nov 2023 19:30

Myanmar Rebel Groups Take Control of A Border Post with India, Capture Several Towns

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBN-xBmZYbU

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 19 Nov 2023 07:01

StratNewsGlobal on Myanmar violence and concerns for India:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMK9dohHlz8

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 19 Nov 2023 21:16

At least 26,000 Seek Refuge in India as Fighting Escalates in Myanmar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCOOfGgY5es

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 19 Nov 2023 21:57

Can I ask a lazy question? Are the rebels Elevens proxies ? Are they trying to establish another red state ( or they are wearing Green on red as of now ?) and why are our porous borders open to any damn refugee at any damn time ? What happened to the first village declaration by our beloved PM only to be swamped by refugees at the first instance!

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 23 Nov 2023 07:19

FYI

bala · Post by **bala** » 23 Nov 2023 08:45

Educational YT on the rebels at the myanmar india border.

Lt Gen Shokin Chauhan explains ..

China is not an innocent bystander, it is supplying weapons and ammunition. They are playing all sides, whoever wins they win. Manipur is a sensitive state for India. Chin control tamu, moreh. This area goes to Imphal. India to SouthEast asia connection goes via this route. There is free movement of people and Myanmar refuses to ID the people on its side.

The Shan state in Myanmar is drug/narcotics center. Rubies are also mined in myanmar. Naypidaw capture by the rebels is the goal but the Myanmar army is very strong and dug in. There are rebel groups in neighboring Laos and of course China.

Many insurgent groups operate in Manipur border area. They come and go anytime and quite impossible to police. In Mizoram, people have relatives in Myanmar. Mizos are Kukis. In Manipur, the Meithis and Kukis are at loggerheads. Mizoram does not allow biometrics of its people. Assam rifles are battling all these groups. Manipur police cannot fight the kukis.