2021 Five State Elections
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
BJP will lose onlee.
-
- BRFite
- Posts: 520
- Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Sir, if the TMC wins their goons will wreak terrible vengeance on the BJP karyakartas on the ground.williams wrote:Irrespective of who wins in Bengal, BJP got 3 seats 2016. It is still a major achievement.
Karyakartas are all-in on this election. Without BJP control of the state machinery and police, it will be a bleak 5 years ahead for them.
We need to WIN here. Merely a strong showing is not enough.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Still one more hour before we can see any definitive trend.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
sudarshan wrote:Can a person lose the seat and still be CM?
News18 is showing 137 for TMC and 85 for BJP. So is the Quint.
ECI, the definitive site, shows 58 for TMC and 33 for BJP out of 92. All leads, no wins.
yes
IIRC, they have to get elected within 6 months of swearing in
she will/can easily get someone from TMC to resign a safe seat and stand from there
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Hindus will have a terrible time in WB.Shaktimaan wrote:Sir, if the TMC wins their goons will wreak terrible vengeance on the BJP karyakartas on the ground.williams wrote:Irrespective of who wins in Bengal, BJP got 3 seats 2016. It is still a major achievement.
Karyakartas are all-in on this election. Without BJP control of the state machinery and police, it will be a bleak 5 years ahead for them.
We need to WIN here. Merely a strong showing is not enough.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
If Shuvendu defeats Mumtaz Banoo handsomely then he will stand tall, and will lead the BJP's charge against the marauding jihadists.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
How many election cycles it took for TMC to defeat CPI-M ?
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
There is very little anti-incumbency against TMC in urban, semi-urban areas. Almost the entire M vote from INC-Left has shifted to TMC. Bhadralok is still averse to BJP and has staid with TMC. Expect more appeasement. Big setback for NRC and national interest.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
mumtaz bano's national ambitions will have evaporated into thin air. No one will consolidate around her now, as she had expected with a massive win going in to the next gen elections as well as some of the major state elections.williams wrote:Irrespective of who wins in Bengal, BJP got 3 seats 2016. It is still a major achievement.
that was one of her major objectives in these elections
leaves the field clear for also ran aspirants like pawar and pappu among others.
the ropers, it appears from early indications, have consolidated massively and voted for the TMC whereas some of the Hindu votes are still split.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Hindus have again shot themselves in the foot with their mental blindness. Their formula seems to be: "Keep voting for Mamta and take the first train out of Bengal to look for a job in other states." In my company in Delhi, if I advertise for a job, 8 out of 10 resumes I receive are of Bengalis, half of them emailed straight from Kolkata. They will give their right arm to get a job in Delhi or Bengaluru or Mumbai. Most of the Bengali employees in my company are anti-BJP and still cannot comprehend why they are sitting in Delhi to do a job as an economic refugee, and why they couldn't find a job in Kolkata. But it is a matter of pride for them that they are anti-BJP.Supratik wrote:There is very little anti-incumbency against TMC in urban, semi-urban areas. Almost the entire M vote from INC-Left has shifted to TMC. Bhadralok is still averse to BJP and has staid with TMC. Expect more appeasement. Big setback for NRC and national interest.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Why do we keep forgetting the BD votes. WB election is remote controlled from BD.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Also, if TMC gets stuck below 160, then TMC will be broken.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Modi/Shah's bad times are apparently till Sep/Oct 2021.. absolutely worst till April, gradually better from May onwards.Avinandan wrote:+ 1
So for Bengal, the astrologer was correct after all
Losing WB is not end of the world, set back for sure.. bigger battle was fought and decisively won in 2019.
Hope BJP folks can imbibe the spirit of a Marathi general in the face of certain defeat & slaughter of his troops: ".. agar bachenge to phir Ladenge."
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
I am looking at the margins in WB. Most are low margin leads. So the gap has been narrowed but not enough. But INC-Left is finished in WB.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Looks like LF+INC+ISF vote has shifted to TMC. But still too early.
Barely 3 rounds have been counted out of average 17 rounds.
Barely 3 rounds have been counted out of average 17 rounds.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Margins are extremely think in most of the seats as I had guessed.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Good thing is Mumtaz Banoo is trailing by a handsome margin of 8000 votes.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
If Mumtaz loses, but TMC wins, then there is a possibility of Mumtaz putting her good for nothing nephew on the throne and rule the state by proxy. But that will see more defection from the party.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Now I am looking at vote share from ECI. Huge lead for TMC. So people are voting BJP at center and TMC at state.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Folks:
If Mamata loses Nandigram, that will be like:
1. Army won, General Lost. There will be many many metoo in TMC. Suvendu Adhikari will start having CM aspirations. A giant killer.
2. Operation successful, patient dead. Lutyens media will say waterloo of BJP etc, but remember that MaoMata lost!!!
3. Rona-Dhona will continue on this threads. Even if BJP/NDA wins 555 votes in national elections and all the state assemblies with 2/3rd majority. Not sure what I am smoking.
If Mamata loses Nandigram, that will be like:
1. Army won, General Lost. There will be many many metoo in TMC. Suvendu Adhikari will start having CM aspirations. A giant killer.
2. Operation successful, patient dead. Lutyens media will say waterloo of BJP etc, but remember that MaoMata lost!!!
3. Rona-Dhona will continue on this threads. Even if BJP/NDA wins 555 votes in national elections and all the state assemblies with 2/3rd majority. Not sure what I am smoking.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
So where do we see these margins for Bengal?
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
AIADMK not bad, 83-84, it was expected on low 60-50's. Good Job.
DMK is 111-110 not majority on its own as of now.
DMK is 111-110 not majority on its own as of now.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
I think DMK: AIADMK is now 130:101.... It's settled.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Getting rid of dish antennas near counting centers seem to have paid off..Kati wrote:I think DMK: AIADMK is now 130:101.... It's settled.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Is it safe to now call the election in West Bengal
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Its a bloody sweep by TMC, and the bloodshed is going to continue.vimal wrote:WB : https://results.eci.gov.in/Result2021/p ... htm?st=S25
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
2016 TMC won 211 seats. Now still 200+ it seems. Nothing changed, except that BJP is now in distant second position, and is thus highly visible as a sitting duck for the slaughter. And PK might still have the last laugh.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Not at all. We are barely in 25% count mark.AshishA wrote:Is it safe to now call the election in West Bengal
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Both Bihar and WB have lot of migrants, the lockdown is hitting BJP hard, Covid has been a god send to INC , Left and related parties. In TN also it has made a huge difference.
Last edited by Aditya_V on 02 May 2021 12:58, edited 1 time in total.
-
- BRF Oldie
- Posts: 10077
- Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
- Location: The rings around Uranus.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
They will, but it will be a less terrible time.SwamyG wrote:Hindus will have a terrible time in WB.Shaktimaan wrote:
Sir, if the TMC wins their goons will wreak terrible vengeance on the BJP karyakartas on the ground.
Karyakartas are all-in on this election. Without BJP control of the state machinery and police, it will be a bleak 5 years ahead for them.
We need to WIN here. Merely a strong showing is not enough.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Let us wait and see. I remember last MH election was like this. initially BJP looked like sweeping everything and then slowly things went the other way.Kati wrote:Not at all. We are barely in 25% count mark.AshishA wrote:Is it safe to now call the election in West Bengal
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
There are two ways the perception will be shaped after this election (if the trends hold and BJP stays below 100)
1) BJP made a huge gain compared to last time.
or,
2) TMC emerged victorious against the entire BJP machinery.
2a) BJP risked the nation by dropping the ball on COVID situation for WB elections and does not have anything substantial to show for it.
My money is on #2 and to an extent #2a.
1) BJP made a huge gain compared to last time.
or,
2) TMC emerged victorious against the entire BJP machinery.
2a) BJP risked the nation by dropping the ball on COVID situation for WB elections and does not have anything substantial to show for it.
My money is on #2 and to an extent #2a.
-
- BRF Oldie
- Posts: 10077
- Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
- Location: The rings around Uranus.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
^^^Only the last two phases were impacted when the 2nd wave began.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Hindus in Bengal and Kerala escape the consequences of their bad voting decisions by migrating out of the state for jobs. This acts like a pressure valve and then they see no need for a BJP managed government back in their states. In addition, they have been brainwashed to keep voting for governments which are openly hostile to Hindu interests, and shun any political party sympathetic to Hindus. No other race will be blind enough to do this.
Last edited by sanjayc on 02 May 2021 13:10, edited 1 time in total.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
In West Bengal there was no split vote. The UPA alliance parties stepped aside to allow a total consolidation behind TMC.
Add to this demographic consolidation on one side and it had been a sweep.
Add to this demographic consolidation on one side and it had been a sweep.
-
- BRF Oldie
- Posts: 4111
- Joined: 30 Jul 2004 15:05
- Location: Spectator in the dossier diplomacy tennis match
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
What options does MAD have now in WB ?
What can they do to cut the Islamists to size?
Let us see ...wait and watch if there are defections.
What can they do to cut the Islamists to size?
Let us see ...wait and watch if there are defections.
Last edited by Neela on 02 May 2021 13:10, edited 1 time in total.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
BJP will lose onlee.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
So the Delhi gameplan was played in W. Bengal. Transfer of vote from CONgoons to TMC. However, here they are losing their queen.Jarita wrote:In West Bengal there was no split vote. The UPA alliance parties stepped aside to allow a total consolidation behind TMC.
Add to this demographic consolidation on one side and it had been a sweep.
There will be several poachers to TMC now. Leftists. CONgoons.
It will be good to see a 3-way split in TMC.