Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 21 May 2021 05:18

Shameek wrote:^^ Pune is not as crowded as Mumbai next door. Pune was also quite high in the first wave. One of the challenges it faces is the rural areas surrounding Pune don't have facilities anywhere close, so people travel to Pune for treatment. The numbers we see are for the district and not just the city. Pune has one problem of a large population that spits in public and that has been said to be a factor. Also the administration was quite slow in implementing and enforcing restrictions.

I think i didn't put that quite right. I am not comparing Pune with Mumbai but with Hyderabad or Vishakha Pattanam and Tirupati. Hyderabad has 20% more population than Pune (AFAIK) and Vishakha 20% less give or take a few %ge points. May be Tirupati should be excluded. What about Lucknow, Patna, Bhubaneshwar, Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat?

Geography matters and living quarters do matter. "Interior" (as @vera_K ji calls) may come out better from this crisis.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 21 May 2021 06:21

India to scale up daily Covid testing to 45 lakh a day by end June

The Covid-19 testing capacity in the country will be increased to 45 lakh tests a day by June 30, Balram Bhargava, director-general, Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR), said at a media briefing on Thursday.

Currently, 20 lakh tests are conducted daily and this will be increased to 25 lakh tests a day by May 31 and 45 lakh by June end.

Compared with just eight lakh tests a day in early March, a record 20 lakh tests were carried out on May 18 and 19. As on May 20, the country had conducted 32 crore cumulative Covid-19 tests

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 21 May 2021 06:30

Kakkaji wrote:Today's official data on vaccination:

COVID-19 Vaccination Update- Day 125

There was this comment hodden inside today's PIB Release that I had posted earlier.

*Figures for 1st dose coverage for the States of Chhattisgarh Punjab include 6.2 2.3 lakh doses respectively, administered in the age of 18-44 yrs, from 1 May to 19 May 21, and reported on 20 May 21. These figures are yet to be reconciled on CoWIN.

As Suraj-san had posted earlier, ever since Phase 3 started states, don't seem to be sending their daily vaccination data to the centre on CoWIN.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 21 May 2021 06:38

Ventilation crucial in reducing COVID-19 transmission: Office of Principal Scientific Adviser

Well-ventilated spaces play a crucial role in diluting the COVID-19 viral load of infected air and help in decreasing the risk of transmission from one infected person to the other, the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser said on Thursday. In its advisory 'Stop the Transmission, Crush the Pandemic--Masks, Distance, Sanitation and Ventilation to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus', the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser (PSA) said ventilation is a community defence that protects all of us at home or at work.

The advisory highlights the important role well-ventilated spaces play in diluting the viral load of infected air in poorly-ventilated houses, offices, among others.

"Ventilation can decrease the risk of transmission from one infected person to the other," it said.

Just as smells can be diluted from the air through opening windows and doors and using exhaust systems, ventilating spaces with improved directional air flow decreases the accumulated viral land in the air, reducing the risk of transmission, the advisory explained.

"Ventilation is a community defense that protects all of us at home or at work. Introducing outdoor air in offices, homes and larger public spaces is advised.

"Measures to improve ventilation in these spaces must be taken up on urgent priority in urban and rural areas alike, recommendations for hutments, homes, offices and large centralised buildings are given. Simple strategic placement of fans, open windows and doors, even slightly open windows can introduce outdoor air and improve the air quality inside," it stated.

Introduction of cross ventilation and exhaust fans will be beneficial in curtailing the spread of the disease, it said.

In buildings with central air-management systems, improving central air filtration/increased filtration efficiency is especially helpful when enhanced outdoor air delivery options are limited.

In offices, auditoriums, shopping malls, among others, use of gable fan systems and roof ventilators are recommended. Frequent cleaning and replacement of filters is highly recommended, it added.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 21 May 2021 06:43

Nearly half of vaccination sites in Delhi for 18-plus likely to be shut from Friday: AAP MLA Atishi

AAP MLA Atishi on Thursday said nearly half of the vaccination sites for the 18-44 age group in Delhi are likely to be shut from Friday as the city has less than a day's stock of Covishield left.

The vaccination centres administering Covaxin to the people in the city have been shut for nearly a week, she said.

"We have less than a day's stock of Covishield left for the 18-44 age group. There are 99 schools where 368 vaccination sites are there. Nearly 150 of these sites will have to close down from tomorrow owing to vaccine shortage," Atishi said while issuing the vaccination bulletin.

The national capital has two days of Covaxin and nine days of Covishield stock left for the 45 plus age group, healthcare workers and frontline workers, she said.

The AAP MLA added that 50,000 doses of Covishield will be received by the city government Thursday evening.

Over 68,000 people were vaccinated against the novel coronavirus infection on Wednesday in Delhi. The number is less since Wednesdays and Fridays are reserved for routine immunisation of children and many COVID vaccination centres are shut.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 21 May 2021 06:46

90% of armed forces personnel have received both doses of COVID-19 vaccine

Around 90 per cent of the armed forces personnel have been given both the doses of COVID-19 vaccine so far, sources said on Thursday. They added that 97 per cent of approximately a total of 16 lakh armed forces personnel have got a single dose of the vaccine.

VenkataS · Post by **VenkataS** » 21 May 2021 07:33

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/19/99749257 ... o-covid-19
"Three days later, his dad developed a fever. And on the next day, April 15, he fell as he tried to walk to the bathroom in the middle of the night.
"I went and I picked him up, put him in the bed. It was alarming for me," Pradhan recalls. "So I checked his oxygen level. It was 87."
His dad was very sick. Pradhan rushed him to the hospital, but staff turned them away.
"The counter, where the reception is, he was not able to stand," he says. "The [hospital attendant] came and said, 'No, we cannot take him.' "
The hospital wouldn't admit Pradhan's father without proof of a positive coronavirus test. He'd had a test — but the results were delayed."

This is a failure of our medical system and processes. If a patient is that sick and you have hospital beds you should admit them, test or no test. Just look at the blood oxygen level and if it is below a certain threshold you admit the patient. Saving lives should have a higher priority than following processes or protocols.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 May 2021 08:12

Graph of vaccination trend:

(May be we should also start taking this into account in our modeling )

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 May 2021 08:18

This is huge: A rapid (5 minutes), sensitive (nanomolar) antibody test developed by a start-up at IISc Bangalore with DST support has been approved for manufacturing.
Here is why it is huge: The test measures the activities of IgM and IgG-- antibodies specific to the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Glycoprotein (S1), rather than the less representative usual suspect-- Nucleocapsid (N protein).
The test measures not just the presence of antibodies, but also their quantities. This is important in quantifying antibody fading and possibility of re-infection. Plus, the test can be used to measure response to vaccines, thus allowing an investigative role in vaccination programme:

Few Newspapers are carrying this story. eg:
https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/scien ... 594073.ece

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 May 2021 08:29

It's hard to get Pune right ..
(Pune - from the mode)

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 21 May 2021 09:31

Kakkaji wrote:Facts or agenda? Interesting article in Economic Times:

Are some Covid vaccines working better than others? The jury is out

With hundreds of millions of people now vaccinated against Covid-19, the coronavirus outbreak should begin to die down in places where a large chunk of the population has been inoculated. But that isn’t happening everywhere.

Instead, two paths are emerging: In countries such as Israel, new Covid cases are declining as vaccinations spread, while in other places like the Seychelles — which has fully inoculated more of its population than any other nation — infections continue to increase or even reach new highs.
.....
“We’ve got some super vaccines that are beyond expectation,” she said. “We’ve learned a lot and so imagine what the next one is going to look like.
Would the Gurus like to comment on the above?

TIA

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eek_20.pdf

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 21 May 2021 10:27

Indian Navy Designs Oxygen Recycling System To Prolong Life Of Oxygen Cylinder By Up To Four Times - Swarajya

Amid the second wave of Covid-19, the Diving School of the Southern Naval Command of the Indian Navy has conceptualized and designed an 'Oxygen Recycling System' (ORS) to alleviate the existing Oxygen (O2) shortages.

The Diving School has expertise in this area as the basic concept is used in some of the diving sets used by the school.

The ORS is designed to extend the life of the existing medical O2 cylinders two to four times, using the fact that only a small percentage of O2 inhaled by a patient is actually absorbed by the lungs, the rest being exhaled into the atmosphere along with carbon-dioxide (CO2) produced by the body. This exhaled O2 can be reused, provided the exhaled CO2 is removed.

To achieve this, the ORS adds a second pipe to the patient’s existing O2 mask, which sucks out the air exhaled by a patient using a low-pressure motor. Both the mask inlet pipe (for O2) and the mask outlet pipe (for exhaled air) are fitted with non-return valves to maintain a positive pressure and unidirectional flow of gases at all times to ensure the patient's safety against dilution hypoxia.

The exhaled gases, mainly CO2 carbon dioxide and O2, are then fed into a Bacterial Viral Filter and Heat and Moisture Exchanger Filter (BVF-HME filter) to absorb any viral contaminants.

After viral filtration, the gases pass through a high-grade CO2 scrubber with a High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter, which absorbs CO2 and other particulates, allowing enriched O2 to pass through unaffected.

The enriched O2 from the scrubber is then pumped back into the inhalation pipe of the patient’s face mask, thereby increasing the flow rate of O2 to the patient, and reducing the use of O2 from the cylinder.

Digital flow meters monitor the flow rate of O2, and the ORS also incorporates inline O2 and CO2 sensors with automatic cut-offs, which stop the ORS in case O2 levels drop below the normal limits, or the CO2 percentage exceeds normal limits.

However, this cut-off does not affect the normal in-flow of O2 from the cylinder, thereby allowing the patient to continue breathing easily, even if the ORS stops due to the cut-offs or for any other reason.

The first fully operational prototype of the ORS designed by Lieutenant Commander Mayank Sharma was produced on 22 Apr 21 and underwent a series of in-house trials and design improvements at the Southern Naval Command, with third-party observers from ISO certified firms.

“The system is now being progressed for clinical trials in accordance with existing guidelines, which are expected to be completed expeditiously, after which the design will be freely available for mass production in the country. All components used in the ORS are indigenous and freely available in the country,” the Ministry of Defence said in a statement.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 21 May 2021 12:50

Pune has been hit hard in every wave. I recall numbers were beating Delhi and Mumbai even in the first wave. Its not like people here are any more compliant or otherwise than the rest of the country. Then what gives? I once again blame the weather. Something to do with it being not too hot, or too sultry, or too cold, too windy or too rainy.
Enforcement was also not as good or as bad or anyother place I know of, where we have friends, relatives, colleagues. Its as clean or otherwise for any other city as well.
Also there seems to be a PMC/State government tussle. Vaccination has also tapered off quite a bit. We were averaging between 0 to a couple of hundred vaccinations per day for the last week atleast. Most numbers coming from military/command hospitals.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 21 May 2021 13:59

Similar story in most peaceful areas in mumbai

Spot the number of persons wearing masks in the two photos in the article

And the journo writes the article as if it is a positive news

Mumbai: Against all odds, Govandi-Mankhurd keep Covid-19 cases low

The M-east ward comprising Govandi and Mankhurd has emerged as an outlier during the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Despite apparent brazen disregard for lockdown norms shown by countless residents in the area, the city’s most populous and slum-dominated ward has been reporting fewer cases than any other area in Mumbai. BMC officials have attributed the positive trend to rigorous contact tracing against all odds.

Most of the markets and shops remain open all day, sometimes even in the presence of police, in Govandi and Mankhurd and people can be seen roaming about freely without masks. While 80 per cent of the population here lives in shanties in a maze of narrow lanes, most cases have been reported from high-rises.

Faiyaz Alam Sheikh, a social activist from Govandi, said the lockdown-like measures have made life tough for the locals. “People who live in slums are mainly daily wagers and the middle class who are dependent on small businesses they run. As there is no help from the government, I am not surprised that the shops here are open and people are seen roaming in markets. Obviously, they are working for survival. As far as masks are concerned, it has become people's mentality to resist rules,” he said.

Rehman Sheikh, another Govandi resident, offered a different explanation for so many people flouting rules. “The majority of the people believe that there is no pandemic. They feel the authorities are harassing only the poor and hence they are not following any guidelines. They shut their shops only when cops are patrolling. Once police vehicles move on, they open their shops again.”

DrRatnadip · Post by **DrRatnadip** » 21 May 2021 14:02

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/black- ... f8gd5mFfd-

This sudden increase in mucormycosis in this wave raises too many questions.. Govt trying to shift blame on overuse of steroids
. But Steroids are used for many other conditions and we never saw mucormycosis on this horrible scale..Many patients recieved much more steroids in last wave when we were still learning to manage covid..Why mucormycosis was not seen at that time?
Its growing suspicion in doctors that sudden increase in mucor might have something to do with use of industrial oxygen for medical purpose.. It is also possible that this new strain is somehow altering internal enviornment of respiratory tract leading to more favorable conditions for fungus growth.. We need to find root cause of this asap to prevent further spread of mucor in possible third wave , which many experts believe , will affect young population..

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 21 May 2021 14:20

Dr Ratnadip,
I read somewhere (cant remember where exactly) a couple of weeks ago that a potential source of mucormycosis could be the oxygen piping system in hospitals, which includes an 02 humidification water reservoir. Normally distilled water is supposed to be used, and regular cleaning and maintenance of the humidification system. It could be that any available water is being used and/or poor maintenance of the system.

For instance: Humidifiers for oxygen therapy: what risk for reusable and disposable devices?

Is there any data available to check if mucormycosis is being observed predominantly in hospitalised patients who received supplemental O2 ? And reusable humidifiers instead of disposable? If yes, it would give credence to this hypothesis. And remediation is quite easy.

If not, we need to look for answers elsewhere, and find some very quickly.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 21 May 2021 14:29

Another reference: When Uncontrolled Diabetes Mellitus and Severe COVID-19 Converge: The Perfect Storm for Mucormycosis

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 May 2021 20:16

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 21 May 2021 21:57

Delayed second dose is a winning strategy for vaccine-starved countries like India

Faced with a limited supply of shots and anxious populations waiting their turn, more countries are turning to an initially controversial strategy that’s now been vindicated by scientific studies: doubling or tripling the intervals between the first and second Covid vaccine dose.

A delay in getting the second shot not only allows the existing supply of shots to be more widely distributed, it boosts their protective power by giving the immune system more time to respond to the first inoculation. Levels of antibodies produced to fight off the virus are 20% to 300% higher when the follow-up vaccine comes later, new research shows.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 May 2021 23:02

Just for the record:
Posted last year - calculations from "super model"
Model computed with May 2020 Data - Projected till Jan 2021 overlapped with the current data.

Not a bad projection at all!
(The scope of the model, same as current sutra model was to project for next 6 months or so

Theeran · Post by **Theeran** » 21 May 2021 23:05

vijayk wrote:

no vaccinations in Coimbatore district the last two days. TN has a stockpile of 13 lakh vaccines. Either the govn is inefficient or plain malice for election washout.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 May 2021 23:05

Kakkaji wrote:Delayed second dose is a winning strategy for vaccine-starved countries like India

Faced with a limited supply of shots and anxious populations waiting their turn, more countries are turning to an initially controversial strategy that’s now been vindicated by scientific studies: doubling or tripling the intervals between the first and second Covid vaccine dose.

A delay in getting the second shot not only allows the existing supply of shots to be more widely distributed, it boosts their protective power by giving the immune system more time to respond to the first inoculation. Levels of antibodies produced to fight off the virus are 20% to 300% higher when the follow-up vaccine comes later, new research shows.

Hah. Switching Tactics: Why India Must Temporarily Prioritise First Doses Mid-Wave

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 May 2021 23:12

vijayk wrote:
https://imgur.com/8v3ngDQ.png

To add - The peak for TN, per the model, is around 25-29 May with about 36K new infections/day (7 days moving average)

disha · Post by **disha** » 21 May 2021 23:47

DrRatnadip wrote:
Its growing suspicion in doctors that sudden increase in mucor might have something to do with use of industrial oxygen for medical purpose...

A particular justice penguin asked why LPG cylinders cannot be repurposed? And when KKK hoards oxygen, it is bound to effect the certification process. Oxygen cylinders, concentrators are sold by fly-by-night operators without appropriate licenses. Do you think the pipes are cleaned? Or the piping in hospitals have clean infrastructure?

There is overuse of steroids as well. Humans love the prospect of taking one pill to solve all their self created problems. Taking hundreds of pills make them feel even better.

rrao · Post by **rrao** » 21 May 2021 23:50

A gentleman by the name of Bogini Anandayya, a resident of muthukur mandal,krishnapatnam,nellore,Andhra Pradesh with his knowledge of commonly available herbs has developed medicine for corona, His medicine includes a kashayam, a paste and eyedrops. The medicine which he developed initially for his villagers has proved so successful , that nearly 35000 ppl from Nellore and surrounding areas have come to take his medicine. AP CM invited ICMR doctors from center to assess the efficacy of the herbal preparation. The medicine is so good that the oxygen levels are improving miraculously after administration .The patients are turning covid negative with in few days of taking the medicines. The crowd is so overwhelmingly huge, the govt has asked the suspension of distribution of medicine fearing spread of covid. The amazing thing is that there are no side effects of any kind after using the herbal preparation. Medical Miracle of Krishnapatnam Ayurvedam in Nellore | LIVE Treatment For Critical Patient | ABN

https://youtu.be/E0cK4l9RnVM

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 22 May 2021 00:42

Today's official vaccination numbers:

COVID-19 Vaccination Update- Day 126

Cumulative Vaccine Coverage exceeds 19.32 Crore

More than 92.7 lakh beneficiaries of age group 18-44 Vaccinated so far

More than 13.8 lakh Vaccine Doses administered today till 8 pm

The cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in the country exceeded 19.32 Cr (19,32,97,222) as per the 8 pm provisional report today.

6,63,353 beneficiaries of the age group 18-44 years received their first dose of COVID vaccine today and cumulatively 92,73,550 across 37 States/UTs since the start of Phase-3 of the vaccination drive.

As on Day-126 of the vaccination drive (21st May, 2021), total 13,83,358 vaccine doses were given. 12,05,727 beneficiaries were vaccinated for 1st dose and 1,77,631 beneficiaries received 2nd dose of vaccine as per the provisional report till 8 P.M.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 22 May 2021 02:01

rrao wrote:A gentleman by the name of Bogini Anandayya, a resident of muthukur mandal,krishnapatnam,nellore,Andhra Pradesh with his knowledge of commonly available herbs has developed medicine for corona, His medicine includes a kashayam, a paste and eyedrops. The medicine which he developed initially for his villagers has proved so successful , that nearly 35000 ppl from Nellore and surrounding areas have come to take his medicine. AP CM invited ICMR doctors from center to assess the efficacy of the herbal preparation. The medicine is so good that the oxygen levels are improving miraculously after administration .The patients are turning covid negative with in few days of taking the medicines. The crowd is so overwhelmingly huge, the govt has asked the suspension of distribution of medicine fearing spread of covid. The amazing thing is that there are no side effects of any kind after using the herbal preparation. Medical Miracle of Krishnapatnam Ayurvedam in Nellore | LIVE Treatment For Critical Patient | ABN

https://youtu.be/E0cK4l9RnVM

I saw on whatsapp that he was arrested and they stopped distribution of the medicine. How far is it true?

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 22 May 2021 02:58

India will be in a position to vaccinate its adult population by end of 2021: Health Minister Harsh Vardhan

India will be in a position to vaccinate at least all of its adult population by the end of 2021, Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said on Friday.

At a meeting to review the pandemic situation in nine states and union territories, the minister said, "Between August and December 2021, India will have procured 216 crore vaccine doses, while by July this year, 51 crore doses will be procured."

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 22 May 2021 03:06

Pfizer-BioNTech pledge 2 bn doses to less wealthy nations

American pharmaceutical company Pfizer NSE -0.22 % and German company BioNTech pledged on Friday to deliver 2 billion doses of their Covid-19 vaccine to middle-and low-income countries over the next 18 months, amid international calls for more vaccine solidarity. The companies, which together developed the first vaccine to be authorised for use in the US and Europe, made the announcement at a global health summit in Rome co-hosted by the European Union’s executive arm and Italy.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that they expect to provide a billion of the doses this year and another billion in 2022. It was unclear whether the deliveries would take place through the UN-backed COVAX programme,

Bourla said his company last year adopted a three-tiered pricing policy guaranteeing that low-income countries get the shots at cost and to have middle-income nations pay about half the price wealthier nations are charged.

milindc · Post by **milindc** » 22 May 2021 03:28

vijayk wrote:
rrao wrote:A gentleman by the name of Bogini Anandayya

https://youtu.be/E0cK4l9RnVM
I saw on whatsapp that he was arrested and they stopped distribution of the medicine. How far is it true?

He was arrested to control the crowd. They booked him for flouting covid norms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnQwSgFNv6o

If the medicine works the man has discovered mechanisms that will win him multiple nobles in Medicine. In fact he has figured out a 'quantum mechanism' where the eye drops enter cornea issue and then impacts the Lung function. Another Noble for the fact that his paste penetrates the Skin tissue and then again goes to Lungs and impact the fibroids. He is giving 3 medicines, one is eye drops, one is paste and another is Kaadha. Now what impact the Kaadha will have in one hour is something extraordinary. The claims being made are just miraculous. One person had eye drops and his SPO2 improved from 85 to 93 in one hour per a news article.
Politicians from both TDP and YSRCP jumped on the bandwagon that his claims are true.. in fact they had press conferences along with him.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 22 May 2021 03:31

Kakkaji wrote:Pfizer-BioNTech pledge 2 bn doses to less wealthy nations

American pharmaceutical company Pfizer NSE -0.22 % and German company BioNTech pledged on Friday to deliver 2 billion doses of their Covid-19 vaccine to middle-and low-income countries over the next 18 months, amid international calls for more vaccine solidarity. The companies, which together developed the first vaccine to be authorised for use in the US and Europe, made the announcement at a global health summit in Rome co-hosted by the European Union’s executive arm and Italy.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that they expect to provide a billion of the doses this year and another billion in 2022. It was unclear whether the deliveries would take place through the UN-backed COVAX programme,

Bourla said his company last year adopted a three-tiered pricing policy guaranteeing that low-income countries get the shots at cost and to have middle-income nations pay about half the price wealthier nations are charged.

Looks like an effort to drive commitments before something like Covaxin takes over the volume market.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 22 May 2021 03:39

Theeran wrote:
vijayk wrote:
no vaccinations in Coimbatore district the last two days. TN has a stockpile of 13 lakh vaccines. Either the govn is inefficient or plain malice for election washout.

Nothing to do with the election or new govt per se. TN has been literally the worst performing state bar none in terms of vaccinations, even during the previous govt's tenure. What has made the vaccinations drop further in the recent past has been the lockdown with police going overboard with harassing people who have to go out for genuine reasons and the online epass system being very unreliable.

Also, the state not having a say in how to use vaccines given by the center has led to a lot of unutilized capacity, since a lot of above 45 people are not interested in vaccinations whereas under 45s are desperately searching for vaccination slots but can't be vaccinated by the state govt with the surplus stocks.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 22 May 2021 03:42

Amber G. wrote:
vijayk wrote:
https://imgur.com/8v3ngDQ.png
To add - The peak for TN, per the model, is around 25-29 May with about 36K new infections/day (7 days moving average)

Well, TN already hit 36K today. They adjusted the graph a few days back and the peak numbers were reduced from 40K earlier, and the cases again didn't follow the new plot.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 22 May 2021 04:05

Weekend reading.

Will Fauci’s Boss Answer the Questions about the Wuhan Lab?
A flu risk worth taking

Working carefully with influenza viruses they have engineered in isolated biocontainment laboratories, scientists in Europe and the United States have identified several mechanisms by which the virus might evolve to transmit efficiently in the ferret, the best animal model for human influenza infection. This research has allowed identification of genetic pathways by which such a virus could better adapt to transmission among people. This laboratory virus does not exist in nature. There is, however, considerable concern that such a virus could evolve naturally. We cannot predict whether it or something similar will arise naturally, nor when or where it might appear.

Given these uncertainties, important information and insights can come from generating a potentially dangerous virus in the laboratory.

Past time similar research is funded in India! The polity was busy with the IUCNA while the world had moved on.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 22 May 2021 04:12

This center/state distribution of vaccines has been a huge fiasco. Vaccination rate has dropped by a million/ day. This is a huge drop and I hope we don’t end up paying for this.

There is still vaccine hesitancy among old people but younger folks who want to take it are not finding slots. Check out prof shamika Ravi’s tweets for more info on this.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 22 May 2021 04:33

Atmavik wrote:There is still vaccine hesitancy among old people but younger folks who want to take it are not finding slots.

Why do you think the 45+ people are vaccine-hesitant? If anything, after watching the death dance during the second wave, the 45+ should be more eager to get the vaccine.

I don't understand this. If you are 80+, you may think why bother to take the vaccine. But if you are 50, or 60, or 65, I would think you would rush to get the vaccine, esp since it is free for you.

Can anybody explain the psychology behind this vaccine hesitancy among the older people in India?

TIA

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 22 May 2021 04:38

Govt mulling roping in 3-4 more firms to ramp up DRDO Covid drug production

NEW DELHI: Amid the ongoing pandemic, the government is considering the involvement of three or four more firms to ramp up the production of the drug 2DG, developed by the DRDO for the treatment of Covid-19 and do away with its scarcity.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 22 May 2021 05:31

My apologies of this topic has already been covered before. If covered, any links would be much appreciated.

It has been 5 months since the original batch of adults received Covishield and may be 4 months (??) since Covaxin, is there any study done or undergoing (most likely ICMR with the help of SII and/or BB) to understand "rate of decay" of anti-body/immunity? Me thinking, by the time, most of the adult population is vaccinated by the end of 2021 (this is still very optimistic), depending of how long the immunity lasts (6 to 24 months), it will be time to repeat the entire mammoth exercise all over again. Since this is a new vaccine, it is not yet know how long the immunity will last by age group, medical conditions etc. Advantage to India is that we have population and it would be easy to get data of how "rate of decay" of anti-bodies/immunity stackup against Covishield, Covaxin, and may Sputnik V. Last thing govt. wants is wave 3, 4, 5 create a mayhem, as we approach 2024. Hopefully, the vaccine production will ramp up over time, so there should not be any vaccine crunch.

Because EU is preparing for a long haul...For a population of 450 million, 1.8 billion vaccine orders have been made (i.e. 4x)

Pfizer and BioNTech to Supply the European Union With up to 1.8 Billion Additional Doses of COMIRNATY

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (Nasdaq: BNTX) today announced a new agreement with the European Commission (EC) to supply 900 million doses of COMIRNATY®, the companies’ COVID-19 vaccine, to the European Union (EU), with an option for the EC to request up to an additional 900 million doses.

This new agreement is in addition to the 600 million doses that have already been committed to the EU through 2021. The additional 900 million agreed doses are expected to be delivered on a monthly schedule beginning December 2021 and continuing into 2023.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 22 May 2021 06:43

The best that is known is that the Pfizer vaccine is effective for at least 6 months. The Pfizer CEO is on record stating that he expects a yearly vaccination will be required as is the case for other coronaviruses.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 22 May 2021 09:39

Atmavik wrote:This center/state distribution of vaccines has been a huge fiasco. Vaccination rate has dropped by a million/ day. This is a huge drop and I hope we don’t end up paying for this.

There is still vaccine hesitancy among old people but younger folks who want to take it are not finding slots. Check out prof shamika Ravi’s tweets for more info on this.

Stop with the vaccine hesitancy bogey. Vaccine shortage is why the numbers have dropped. They will go back up again as soon as production ramps up in July/August. Once there is enough supplies, govt can also focus on easier access.