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@StiramKannan77:
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The warning bell for BJP?
2019 May & 2024 - What could be the situation?
BJP loses Bengal:
The Congress & the left parties arose unitedly. Furthermore, the Furfura Sharief had locked hands with them building a front that the Ms could not but love.
Owaisi could not ally but was sure to split the M votes. The Hindus were disgruntled with the M appeasement of TMC. The critics from the state opined that Hindus were spoiling to teach Didi a lesson.
So, with Ms going the other way and Hindus favoring the BJP, TMC was placed between a rock and a hard place. Bengal was ripe for an important change.
This was the perception created by the media neglecting the reality on the ground. BJP & its local leaders were sitting on an ivory tower & having their calculations based on the defections. Perhaps, a deja-vu feel of the 2004 Shining India campaign?
At the dawn of 2nd of May, we found that none of the analyzed forecasts based on observations did happen. The Ms were careful and calculative not to allow splitting of their votes, at the last hour, apparently concluded that the didi was their biggest benefactor.
So consolidated was their thinking that the Congress-Left-Furfura alliance did not get a single seat. Owaisi too drew a blank.
Mamta came out as the biggest beneficiary of this consolidation. One has to keep in mind that this was the biggest win TMC has achieved so far. TMC couldn't have won so big without a good number of Hindu votes.
It won a larger share of Hindu votes this time around perhaps, more than BJP!
2nd May was a much more saddening day for BJP. Another election, the results of which were announced the same day was that of UP local elections.
The first blow was Mayavati winning quite a few seats. So, are the Dalits going back to their old party?
What about the Yadavs? Well, they had also revived their old love affair with SP.
BJP may be the winner of these elections, but their victory was Pyrrhic - their total was just four seats more than SP.
The numbers can help some conclude that the BJP was a winner of these elections, the real conclusion is that the BJP was a loser with its Hindu vote bank fragmented into castes.
Some may even reject this result as simply that of local elections. However, quite often the local election results forecast the results of bigger elections. This, Bengal results tell one that the Hindus do not mind voting for a leader who has not done anything assertive 4 them.
We just voted Mamata Banerjee to power. So, what exactly do the Hindus want? Jobs? Safety of their women? Security of their own lives. Hindu brain has become frozen.
Nothing records on Hindu minds now, not poverty, not dishonor of their women, not even loss of their own lives. Fact is, there is nothing called a Hindu-Vote-bank as other religions have. Hindus can be easily divided by castes - Reservation is one good tool to do so!
But let's disregard Bengal. Last time also, the BJP majority was without contribution from this state. However, UP is another matter wholly.
Both in 2014 & 2019, Our party BJP had won a very large number of seats from this state & the number of seats here played a large role in BJP achieving an overall majority in the Parliament.
Furthermore, the SP and the BSP, the two principal parties of the state that failed either to gain a single seat or to get seats even in double numbers.
In 2024 too, BJP will require almost a repeat of the same performance if it wants to form a government. And that is exactly where the rub is. If the local election results are any indicator, the performance this time will fall much below the line.
Do you think the BJP will form govt? in 2024? Well, that question will be answered in 2022 itself when the state elections of UP are due. If the performance of BJP in these elections is poor, compose a piece of suitable music for Modi's farewell in 2024.
So, the presumption of Amit Shah, the over-confidence of the party workers, too-much reliance on Modi's image (which is fading though and great effort applied by one and all in the recent past),
deafening silence on farmers' protest, more commercial and less of administration, etc., should be addressed and brought into control.
Take these warning bells precariously! No time to relax! Connect to the roots. Back to Basics! TINA will not go a long way!
I just can't imagine Rahul or Priyanka or Mamata becoming the PM of this country! For this sake, BJP should wake up from their slumber; wriggle out of the perceptions and comfort zone.
Warning bells are deafening my ears and not theirs it seems...
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Reply to this:
https://twitter.com/DNobody101/status/1 ... 63744?s=19
@DNobody101
1/n
Bangal has CHANGED
BJP has achieved the Unthinkable
Mamta is going berserk and we are seeing the post poll violence on Dalits because Mamta has realized that BJP has done the unthinkable
2/n
Mamata lost the election in Nandigram, which has around 35-40% Ms is the biggest proof of the BJP's win.
Suvendu had won Nandigram in 2016 with a vote share of 67.2%.
He got 48.5% this time compared to Banerjee’s 47.6%.
Let us analyze this result first
3/n
let us understand one basic bottom line first:
out of 100 Muslims, almost 90-94% has voted in Bangal in 2021 elections
Out of 100 Hindus, only 65-70% has voted
Keeping this in mind,
90% of 40% Ms in Nandigram makes up 36% Votes
70% of 60% Hs, makes up 42% votes
4/n
But 36% + 42% makes up only 78% voting, while reported voting is 88%
So, we split the Extra 10% according to the 40/60 ratio
so, in Nandi gram voting, we may consider Ms real voting% as 36+4 = 40%
And Hs voting % as 42+6=48%
Normalizing these 40% and 48% to 100 would make
5/n
Normalizing these 40% and 48% to 100 would make
Ms Votes = 45% in Nandigram
Hs Votes = 55% in Nandigram
3% Hindu votes went to Minakshi Mukherjee of CPI(M)
So it was the fight between 45% Ms and 52% Hs Votes
Mamta got 48% and Suvendu got almost 49% votes each
So Mamta got only 3% Hindu Votes, out of 49% Hs Votes, while Fighting as the CM candidate
Suvendu got 46% Hindu Votes, out of 49% Hs votes
Now Convert it back to 100% of Hindu Votes
And there Lies the fruits of Sacrifices of BJP Hindu supporters
7/n
Reality is
Mamta got just 6% Hindu Votes in NandiGram
While Suvendu Got 88% Hindu Votes
(6% H votes went to CPI(M) Hindu candidate)
Not going in to maths of converting it back to Pure numbers..
Let me just give you the Numbers
There were 2,28,467 votes polled
8/n
Hs votes were about 1, 20, 000 out of 2, 28, 000 polled
CPI(M) got 3,000 Hs Votes (NOTA got 1000 Hs Votes)
Mamta Got about MAXIMUM 8,000 Hs votes (taking into account all the errors in my calculations)
Suvendu Got 1,11,000 Hs Votes
Mamta Got 8,000 Hs Votes
9/n
NOT a BAD Performance by BJP and MODI , I would say
But we still lost Bangal
Coz in many seats, more than 20% Hindus voted for Mamta's Party
But the fact remains:
1. BJP has almost 70% of Hindu Votes In Bangal, so it will get about 25 seats in 2024 Loksabha from bangal
10/n
2. Mamta can be dislodged any day if Modi wishes so and .....1 most probable date is after 2022 UP elections, coz Modi won't risk 2024 lokSabha in bangal under her watch
3. Mamta has played her best hand, this consolidation of Muslims will never be achieved again
11/n
Fault lines among Muslims ( like furfura Sharif and Owaisi) will be opened by BJP now
All in all, Bangal has One more Election Due in 1-2 years
This was NOT the final
12/n
Regarding UP, BSP is BJP's Hidden card Now
SP can not defeat BJP in UP
more than 25% Yadav Votes are with Yogi and MODI in UP
Muslims would NEVER vote for SP in Block, as BSP and other Owaisi types can be bought and implanted there anytime by Amit Shah
13/n
Bottomline:
1. Losing UP is NOT an OPTION for Modi/Shah
2. SP do not have Appeal or Money or Caste Calculation to challenge BJP in UP
3. MONEY matters eventually and Pappu has made sure that No Baniya like Ambani/Adani would Back anyone else than MODI/BJP in near future
14/n
All is well
Everything is Totally under control
I do NOT see any Panic buttons anywhere in near future
Except a small border clash with China
