Yes, they fear it and I think these are the most consequential results of this paranoia:ramana wrote:Chetak That painting reflects China's fears of a repeat of the 19th-century of Humiliation via "Open Door Policy" etc under Qing dynasty.
1) they are outwardly calling for increases in their nuclear arsenal
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224725.shtml
2) systematically decoupling with West through "dual track" economy with domestic market growth while still taking advantage of export markets,
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia- ... dependence
3) their building up of their silicon chip industry and the bifurcation of the global technology eco-system.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/amphtml/china ... 08343.html
The first will mean we'll need to reformulate our calculus for deterence when the chini nuke arsenal grows into the thousands to match the US -- even if the US gets them into an arms treaty since the one they have with Russia caps things for everyone at 3000 warheads.
The last two would mean a drastically changed Cheen who grew most of the last four decades on easy access to Western markets and being the top beneficiary of the globalized personal electronics production chain. This is where India must compete with other nations -- Vietnam, Malaysia, even Bangladesh -- for a piece of the supply chains leaving China from this separation.
The decoupling through dual track and technology bifurcation thus represents a major opportunity for India to take over some of those links with the West. Hopefully, it can turn India into the China of the 1970s - 1990s and China into the Soviet Union of the same period.
If the chinis succeed in either or both, it would make them immensely powerful without any constraints placed by need for foreign markets or technology. They have enough allies in MNCs and especially their cohorts on the Far East -- Japan, Korea and even Taiwan -- feeding them critical tech that they have an even chance of success. They grew internally during the Wuhan virus when their trading partners went into lockdown and then took advantage of the surge in exports when the West began to open up again. The US embargos on satellites and space tech did not stop them from developing a massive satellite industry and market and a space station.
IMHO, there is a 50-50 chance that Cheen will be drastically weaker with less access to the West. But conversely, they can be drastically more powerful with its domestic market growing far faster and much bigger than the US and with enough help from the usual suspects along with good old fashioned stealing and spying to allow them to create a parallel technology eco-system.