From a briefing from Prof. Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma, (IIT Kanpur team )
For details see
https://covid19-forecast.org.
Key observations:
-
Second wave weaned off in most states
- Northeast States still recording high numbers
- India's daily average count - reduced from 400,000 to 63,000
- Test Positivity Rate (TPR) <5% - Most states
- Test Positivity Rate (TPR) >10% - Kerala, Goa, Sikkim, Meghalaya
- India's Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - increased to 3.5%
They considered three scenarios using the epidemic parameters of the second wave, assuming that India is fully unlocked on 15 July:
1. Scenario 1 (Back-to-Normal) : Third wave peak in October but a lower peak height than the second wave.
2. Scenario 2 (Normal with virus mutations): The peak could be higher than the second one and may appear early (September).
3. Scenario 3 (Stricter interventions): The peak of the third wave could be delayed until late October . Here, the peak will be lower than the second wave.
From what I can tell, Model is NOT taking vaccinations into account, The peak will be
*significantly* reduced if we can get 100-200 million vaccines per month...
One very significant item, we now know that single dose of Covidsheild will not be sufficient (it is providing about 30% efficacy in India)..the recommendation to policy makers is quite strong - get two doses as soon as practically possible. Like Canada and UK I think policy in India will chance pretty soon.
PS - Number of vaccines per day, as I was posting here for some time, I believe will increase - may be 10 M/day in coming weeks. I certainly hope so.