Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 15 Jul 2021 22:06

Wednesday at 7pm: 39.1cr: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1735596
Thursday at 7pm: 39.49cr: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1735977

39,49,78,565 - 39,10,53,156 = 39,25,409

I think Suraj San's prediction of 6 crore doses administered in the first half of July has been realized.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 15 Jul 2021 22:36

Folks:

I would like to draw your attention to the following Health Ministry press release of this morning:

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1735781

I check this press release every morning about the current vaccine stocks with the states, and the number of doses in the pipeline. There are a couple of significant things I noticed in this report this morning:

More than 40.31 crore (40,31,74,380) vaccine doses have been provided to States/UTs so far, through all sources and a further 83,85,790 doses are in the pipeline.

Of this, the total consumption including wastages is 38,39,02,614 doses (as per data available at 8 AM today).

More than 1.92 Cr (1,92,71,766) balance and unutilized COVID Vaccine doses are still available with the States/UTs and private hospitals to be administered.

The number of vaccines in stock with the states (1.92cr) is very good. It had fallen below 1cr at the beginning of July.

The number of doses in the pipeline (83,85,790) is the highest I have ever seen since I started watching this report.

It looks like Suraj San's prediction about increased vaccine availability in the second half of the month is coming true.

Another significant change in this morning's report is the table they have included in this report. I don't know how to include that table in this post, so someone more tech-savvy please help me by posting this table.

It is a very simple table showing the supply, consumption, stocks, and pipeline of vaccines as of today.

If the ministry publishes this table every morning going forward, it will clear all the confusion, and eliminate 80% of the doubts and misinformation about the current vaccine availability in the media.

I think Mansukh Mandaviya came up withn this table. He is addressing the gap in communication head on. I like that. The best way to shut up the motivated comments by the media and the opposition is to provide timely facts and figures.

JMT

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 15 Jul 2021 23:38

July 1-15 is 59.6 million. Almost 6 crore yes.

The pipeline was 7 million late in June, increased to 16 million in early July and progressively to 17 and 18 million last week. The rising number suggests volume in 2nd half will remain solid .

The table is a new format and certainly an improvement.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 16 Jul 2021 00:59

Lot of good information, hence posting in full:

Vaccine supplies still a concern, as the pace of vaccination hovers at half-way mark

The government has revealed that they are supplying only half of what is required at about 45 lakh doses per day
As the Centre and States lob allegations of vaccine inventory “mismanagement” at each other, experts worry that the pace of vaccination hovers at the half-way mark of the required 90-odd lakh per day.

The government by its own projection of 13.5 crore doses to be supplied in July, has revealed that they are supplying half of what is required at about 45 lakh per day, noted virologist Shahid Jameel, told BusinessLine. “What we need is 9 to 10 million (90 lakh to 1 crore) doses per day for the rest of this year,” said Jameel, Director, Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University.

There is clearly a supply issue linked to how much has been ordered, the delivery schedule and whether companies were working to capacity, he said, pointing out that vaccine companies too needed time to make the vaccines once the requirement is communicated to them.

Industry insiders said that Serum Institute of India, makers of Covishield, has touched about 10 crore doses a month, while Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin reportedly is about 2.5-odd crore. Covaxin is not an easy vaccine to make, said Jameel, adding that its turnaround is four months for each batch.

Till date, nearly 39 crore vaccinations were carried out in the country. The share of Covishield in this was 34.16 crore, while that of Covaxin was 4.83 crore.

On the Centre’s statement Wednesday that some States and private vaccination centres were not picking up stocks or paying for it, Jameel said, the Centre could take them to task. “This is side-tracking the real issue of placing early purchase orders,” he said, adding that the Centre and States needed to talk and sort this out.

States seek more
In the three weeks of the Centre’s revised vaccination programme, States have been asking for more vaccine supplies tailored to their population profile.

A senior official in Kerala said the State, which is still facing the brunt of the second wave, requested for 90 lakh doses of vaccine for July. “But we have got only less than 14 lakh doses so far in this month,” the official said adding after much persuasion, the Centre has agreed to give an additional 5 lakh doses in next couple of days.

A senior health official in Punjab similarly said the supplies are very skewed. “We would be getting some supplies today which will last till the day after. But the next scheduled supply is on July 21. What would we do till then,” the official asked.

In Tamil Nadu, vaccination outpaces the supplies. For instance, last week about eight lakh vaccines arrived, and were administered in three days as opposed to over a week or a couple of months ago.

"As the vaccine hesitancy is slowly vanishing, we need to administer more shots so that we cover maximum persons at a short period of time. However, for this, we need more vaccines from the Centre," said a senior government official.

Gujarat government officials ruled out any shortage and its Chief Immunization Officer, Nayan Jani said, “We are getting regular supplies from the Centre - more than we received earlier. The supplies have increased, but now that the vaccination has been thrown open for all above 18, the population to be covered has suddenly gone up. So far, we have administered about 2.8 crore doses, whereas the targeted beneficiaries are about 4.7 crore in the State.”

However, Gujarat's overall pace of vaccination has slowed down from the initial week of new vaccination drive that started on June 21. In the first week June 21-27, average doses administered were about 4 lakh per day, which reduced to 2.75 in the following week ending July 4.

Complaining of a vaccine shortage, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee alleged that vaccines were not coming “as per schedule”. Against a request for 14 crore doses, the State was allotted 2.12 crore doses. In her letter to the Prime Minister, she called for 11.5 crore more dosages to “cover all eligible people”. Bengal has on an average been administering 300,000 doses per day; against a capacity of administering 10 lakh doses per day, the letter claimed.

Telangana reported a lack of Covaxin supplies, particularly in government vaccination centres. The State, which has administered 1.27 crore jabs so far, is witnessing a steady pace in the administration of doses. Covishield holds a share of over 80 per cent of all the doses administered so far in the State, with Covaxin contributing the remaining portion. SputnikV made it presence felt with a share of about 50,000 doses.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 Jul 2021 07:12

nandakumar wrote:Have a question on the SUTRA model. The predicted value of fresh infections gets updated in the model to reflect current actual. From 15th May they have updated it at least 4 times to my knowledge with the latest model incorporate the actual upto 13th July. If the model value us what the actual is till as recently as a day or two ago, how useful is it for managing/ planning the health infrastructure for the future?

Good question, I hope I could find some time to answer this in some details but *very* good and clear answer to this (and much more) can one find in this excellent presentation from today's talk by none other than prof Manindra Agrawal. (More of this in my post in math dhaga).

The link is <Use this link - video starts around 5 PM IST a few seconds wait>

This is an excellent link - Audience is expert mathematicians but this lecture is not that technical and if you have a good back ground you can follow the math. It does answer what is being asked very clearly IMO.

Basically:
Model is not "prediction" of future - like astrology.
It is also not fitting a curve on existing data and doing some extrapolation.

It is a mathematical model, especially developed for Covid-19 type pandemic. It is quite advanced and gives excellent prediction (near time - few months in future) *IF* parameters suddenly don't change . (eg more deadly variant - or people do unpredictable behaviour). It also helps us understand the past (how effective various measures were) and can play scenerios *very* reliably - eg what the effect of a lock-down will be etc.

It is more like say Newton's gravitation model - may be a little more complex- Observations of positions for centuries one can estimate the "parameters" eg Mass of Sun, Gravitational constant, distance from sun etc and then the equation is used to predict the future position - much more accurately than "curve fitting".

The situation here is more like weather prediction - not just guessing or looking at past data - but using data, and submitting those values in the model. One still can't predict hurricanes years in future but can do a good prediction of near by events and thus saving lives.

Basically Sutra has few parameters - few we can understand and can easily estimate from the data .. few are very hard to estimate or find true value (eg total number of cases - as reported value is not accurate as there is not enough testing etc).. This model gives *VERY* powerful mathematical tools to find those parameters - (IMO *NO* other advance model comes close - this is one of the top world class model according to experts).

The parameters in this model are:
beta - contact rate (how fast one gives the virus to others)
gamma - how fast one recovers.. (The value is about 0.1 for covid - as about in 10 days a person will recover)
eta - rate a person dies - if he contacts virus.
rho - "reach" of pandemic (how much it is localized)
epsilon - ratio of *actual* cases vs those which are tested positive (or have symptoms etc) (One of hard parameter to estimate from data)
etc..
The beauty, IMO, is the model has very powerful methods to get these parameters from existing (routinely reported data ) by powerful mathematical, epidemiological and statical tools... and based on these few parameters when graphs are drawn if fits the actual (past values too) very nicely -- for different districts in India or different countries...
Anyway sorry for long post, hope this helps.. ..

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 Jul 2021 08:04

^^^ Let me emphasize why people think SUTRA is a class above other models:
1 - It is the *only* model which can determine *all* parameters from daily reported published data.
2 - Provides an *excellent* understanding of past.
3 - Assuming parameters do *not* change (which is most of the time - except drift period or sudden changes) medium range projection is quite accurate. (compared to other models) -
4 - Can easily incorporate vaccine data (and loss of immunity etc type data from other sources) to accurately determine beta and rho.
5 - Can do "what-if-scenerios" (what if 25% more deadly variant than delta comes etc or effect of lock-down).

What it does not do (or does not do well)
- Cant predict changes in future parameters. (Will a new variant come -- will people suddenly start a protest march etc)
- In the "drift" period (major parameter change time) the predictions are not that accurate. (If you see my earlier messages in this thread - our prediction of the timing of the third wave was on the spot but the height was not - and I did say so - -- this was due to the fact that in March things were "drifting" and prediction was hard.. (Intuitively a small error in reporting of daily cases in those days could make a big difference - the sutra model uses 7 day average which is more stable but it takes time)

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 Jul 2021 09:25

Okay - Here is "Third wave scenario"
(Let us see how good this prediction is

)
(Save this post)
(All credit to SUTRA Team - many/most graphs are from their published sites and if you share - please acknowledge it)
(Historic - check out my posts in brf - last year's prediction (done pre-sutra era) were quite accurate - in fact in graphs I posted last year in fall the prediction went up to end of February and were quite in agreement with actual data.

All parameters had a change in March/April - especially beta... delta variant and the wave which we never thought will come to India was extremely devastating.

But here we are again - see how accurate we are!

Hopefully a small ripple in October - which may become smaller if people only act sensibly.

We assume:
Vaccine rates: 5M/day Ave in July (We need another in 80M by the end of this month)
6M/day average in August.
9M/day in September, October and November.

We also assume: (Conservatively)

30% people gets immunity after one month after the first dose.
60% people gets immunity after one month after the second dose.
40% of the people who got covid before the second wave lose their immunity after 3 months - rest are immune.
20% of the people who got covid after the second wave (delta) lose their immunity after 3 months
beta (which is around .25 now but was worse about 0.4 in beginning of the second wave) becomes 0.4 around the August end but does NOT go higher. (NO NEW Variant)

Then we have "optimistic" - green curve - A ripple.

If vaccine rates are not that high or say effectiveness falls to 25% (one shot) and 50% (two shots) from 30/60.
We have "Intermediate scenario - still virtually same as optimistic one.

BUT if we get a 25% more transmissive variant then Delta - we get the pessimistic purple curve- The peak is about as high as the second wave. ( Delta+ and Lamda - from the data may be more dangerous but they are similar to Delta in term of transitiveness).

---
The BIGGEST Impact, IMO one can make is use of *masks* -- it can *really* bring down the peak.
Vaccinations, while extremely important - need to be kept above 5-6 M/day in next month or two and then go up to 9-10 M/day but higher vaccine rates alone, if crowds etc are not managed may not be the answer. (Many reasons - it takes a few months for vaccine to take effect and we have to stop the spread via more effective way).

If you want to do your own calculations - here are the (current) parameters for India..

..
beta = 0.25 , eta=.0014, epsilon = .033, gamma = .1, rho = 90%,

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 16 Jul 2021 09:26

Amber G
Many, many thanks for your excellent exposition on the SUTRA model. Although maths is not my strong suit, I will go through the link you have supplied. Your post itself is a very good substitute for that, I think. On a broader note: Past is a guide for the future not just in terms predicting the future (an over simplification of the utility of past data) but it helps shape our response in the present for controlling better, the future. I made the mistake of thinking about the model as extrapolating the future.

sankum · Post by **sankum** » 16 Jul 2021 14:16

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.timesofi ... 458737.cms

. The total production of Covishield and Covaxin in August-December is placed at 88 crore doses. Despite a shortfall of around 3.5 crore doses in July, Covaxin production is put at 38 crore in this period, slightly less than the 40 crore mentioned in the SC affidavit. The glitches in its production are understood to have been sorted out.

COVAXIN production in August can be expected to 6 Cr and later 8 Cr per month.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 16 Jul 2021 20:33

Covid-19: Government orders 66 crore vaccine doses worth Rs 14,505 crore

NEW DELHI: The government is placing its largest order yet of Covid vaccines at 66 crore doses worth Rs 14,505 crore to procure Covishield and Covaxin shots that will help it to substantially meet the vaccine availability projections it had made in the Supreme Court.

The order is in line with the Centre’s estimate of 135 crore doses being available between August-December as stated in its affidavit submitted to the Supreme Court on June 26. Apart from the order for 66 crore doses, the government has made an advance payment to reserve 30 crore doses of Hyderabad based Biological-E’s Corbevax vaccine, official sources said.

This means a total of 96 crore doses are expected to be available on account of government procurement during August-December. While the 96 crore doses comprises Centre’s share of 75% of the total manufactured doses, the private sector will also have another 22 crore doses of Covishield and Covaxin available during the period.

The order and other anticipated supplies, said officials, will help India remain on track to ensure vaccination for the 18+plus population by the year-end.

The total production of Covishield and Covaxin in August-December is placed at 88 crore doses. Despite a shortfall of around 3.5 crore doses in July, Covaxin production is put at 38 crore in this period, slightly less than the 40 crore mentioned in the SC affidavit. The glitches in its production are understood to have been sorted out.

Apart from Covishield, Covaxin and Corbevax, the government’s estimate of 135 crore doses also included Sputnik V and Zydus Cadila’s vaccine. While Sputnik V locally manufactured supplies are yet to start, Cadila’s approval is pending. Ten crore Sputnik and five crore Cadila are estimated to be available this year, according to the Centre's affidavit.

“Government has already made an advance payment 96 doses and another 22 crore doses will be available for the private sector, thus securing a large bulk of the expected supply well in advance,” said an official source.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 16 Jul 2021 20:36

India orders 660 mln vaccine doses amidst warnings over shortages - media

The Serum Institute of India, which manufactures Covishield, has raised monthly production to about 100 million doses.

The government says Bharat Biotech's monthly output will jump to as much as 70 million doses in July/August, from about 10 million doses in April. Production could rise further to nearly 100 million by September, it says.

Bharat Biotech, which has been struggling to raise output of its vaccine, did not respond to a request for an update on its production plans.

"I expect the vaccine shortage to continue and as per the planned vaccine supply, it appears that the daily average for the whole of July will stay below 4 million," said Rijo John, health economist and a professor at the Rajagiri College of Social Sciences in the southern city of Kochi.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 16 Jul 2021 20:42

One of the news stories also said the price being paid this time by the GOI is higher. About Rs 215/dose for Covishield including GST, and Rs 225/dose for Covaxin including GST. This is compared to the previous price of Rs 157/dose including GST.

I can't find that story this morning. I think it was on Economic Times or Business Standard. I should have saved the story. Sorry.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 16 Jul 2021 20:44

India orders 660 mln vaccine doses amidst warnings over shortages - media

"I expect the vaccine shortage to continue and as per the planned vaccine supply, it appears that the daily average for the whole of July will stay below 4 million," said Rijo John, health economist and a professor at the Rajagiri College of Social Sciences in the southern city of Kochi.

It is interesting how the media (Reuters in this case) scrapes the bottom of the barrel in order to publish a slanted quote. A professor in a college of social sciences is now an expert on vaccine production. By the article's own admission, the so-called current shortage is not that short, given the ramped up production of both Covishield and Covaxin. Even the difficult-to-produce Covaxin's shortfall is not that much, to BBIL's credit. In effect, this article needs to put a negative spin somewhere, so manages to get hold of someone to achieve that goal.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 16 Jul 2021 21:20

arshyam wrote:
India orders 660 mln vaccine doses amidst warnings over shortages - media

It is interesting how the media (Reuters in this case) scrapes the bottom of the barrel in order to publish a slanted quote. A professor in a college of social sciences is now an expert on vaccine production. By the article's own admission, the so-called current shortage is not that short, given the ramped up production of both Covishield and Covaxin. Even the difficult-to-produce Covaxin's shortfall is not that much, to BBIL's credit. In effect, this article needs to put a negative spin somewhere, so manages to get hold of someone to achieve that goal.

Prof of social science, in a college not known for any high quality research, even in its home state.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 16 Jul 2021 21:40

Amber G. wrote:Okay - Here is "Third wave scenario"
(Let us see how good this prediction is )
(Save this post)
(All credit to SUTRA Team - many/most graphs are from their published sites and if you share - please acknowledge it)
(Historic - check out my posts in brf - last year's prediction (done pre-sutra era) were quite accurate - in fact in graphs I posted last year in fall the prediction went up to end of February and were quite in agreement with actual data.

All parameters had a change in March/April - especially beta... delta variant and the wave which we never thought will come to India was extremely devastating.

But here we are again - see how accurate we are!

Hopefully a small ripple in October - which may become smaller if people only act sensibly.

We assume:
Vaccine rates: 5M/day Ave in July (We need another in 80M by the end of this month)
6M/day average in August.
9M/day in September, October and November.

We also assume: (Conservatively)

30% people gets immunity after one month after the first dose.
60% people gets immunity after one month after the second dose.
40% of the people who got covid before the second wave lose their immunity after 3 months - rest are immune.
20% of the people who got covid after the second wave (delta) lose their immunity after 3 months
beta (which is around .25 now but was worse about 0.4 in beginning of the second wave) becomes 0.4 around the August end but does NOT go higher. (NO NEW Variant)

Then we have "optimistic" - green curve - A ripple.

If vaccine rates are not that high or say effectiveness falls to 25% (one shot) and 50% (two shots) from 30/60.
We have "Intermediate scenario - still virtually same as optimistic one.

BUT if we get a 25% more transmissive variant then Delta - we get the pessimistic purple curve- The peak is about as high as the second wave. ( Delta+ and Lamda - from the data may be more dangerous but they are similar to Delta in term of transitiveness).

---
The BIGGEST Impact, IMO one can make is use of *masks* -- it can *really* bring down the peak.
Vaccinations, while extremely important - need to be kept above 5-6 M/day in next month or two and then go up to 9-10 M/day but higher vaccine rates alone, if crowds etc are not managed may not be the answer. (Many reasons - it takes a few months for vaccine to take effect and we have to stop the spread via more effective way).

If you want to do your own calculations - here are the (current) parameters for India....
beta = 0.25 , eta=.0014, epsilon = .033, gamma = .1, rho = 90%,

Please post in a blog.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 16 Jul 2021 23:06

Brites, may I request to write short,precise and meaningfull post. Why to post the analysis of some simple data in the the form of 3 page essay? And more 3 page essay to analysis precious analysis. Most of the time we can explain this with bullet points. Essay on eye and brain. It is simple as that.
It is not only for this thread. Afganistan and strategic thread are getting boring no go areas. Salam

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 17 Jul 2021 01:17

Kakkaji wrote:One of the news stories also said the price being paid this time by the GOI is higher. About Rs 215/dose for Covishield including GST, and Rs 225/dose for Covaxin including GST. This is compared to the previous price of Rs 157/dose including GST.

I can't find that story this morning. I think it was on Economic Times or Business Standard. I should have saved the story. Sorry.

Thanks. Do you know the breakdown of orders by SII and BB here , of that 660 million ? I have recorded the history of orders to date, except this latest one, in the following thread:
Indian Covid-19 Vaccine Orders to June 8 2021

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 17 Jul 2021 02:46

Suraj wrote:
Kakkaji wrote:One of the news stories also said the price being paid this time by the GOI is higher. About Rs 215/dose for Covishield including GST, and Rs 225/dose for Covaxin including GST. This is compared to the previous price of Rs 157/dose including GST.

I can't find that story this morning. I think it was on Economic Times or Business Standard. I should have saved the story. Sorry.
Thanks. Do you know the breakdown of orders by SII and BB here , of that 660 million ? I have recorded the history of orders to date, except this latest one, in the following thread:
Indian Covid-19 Vaccine Orders to June 8 2021

Here is one story on price:

Modi govt finally raises vaccine prices, will pay Rs 215 for Covishield, Rs 225 for Covaxin

Haven't seen breakup of order quantity yet. Will keep looking.

Thanks

sankum · Post by **sankum** » 17 Jul 2021 03:03

Simple maths estimate.
Rs 14505 Cr total order value of 66 Cr doses.
34.5 Cr Covisheild @Rs 215/dose
31.5 Cr COVAXIN @Rs 225/dose

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 17 Jul 2021 04:11

Thursday at 7pm: 39.49cr: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1735977
Friday at 7pm: 39,93,62,514: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1736284

39,93,62,514 - 39,49,78,565 = 43,83,949 on Friday

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 17 Jul 2021 04:21

Covid-19 vaccine: Govt awaiting response from Moderna, says Dr VK Paul

The government is waiting to hear from vaccine company, Moderna, on some issues and a response was expected any time now. Talks are going on contractual specifics and has not concluded yet, V K Paul member, health, Niti Aayog, at a health ministry briefing on Friday.

The Drugs Controller General of India has already granted permission to Mumbai-based pharmaceutical company Cipla to import Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine for restricted emergency use in the country. Moderna and Pfizer have asked for indemnity against adverse events caused by the vaccine as a precondition for launching of their Covid-19 vaccines in India. The government has raised some issues and had been hopeful of a response from Moderna.

On the drop in vaccination levels in the country, Paul said they had a visibility of around 13 to 14 crore vaccine doses this month. “Serum Institute of India has increased production of Covishield the last few weeks,” Paul said. Technical glitches in production faced by one of the companies had caused a dip in production and it has been sorted out and since then production has been increased, he said. Increase in vaccine production and new vaccine candidates coming would increase the country’s vaccine stock pile, he assured.

A ICMR study on vaccine effectiveness involving 1,17,524 high-risk police personnel in Tamil Nadu in the midst of the second wave had shown that two doses of the vaccines provided 95% protection against death while the single dose offered 82% protection. Paul said this data was significant as it was real life data and during the Delta variant-driven wave.

In a vaccine-related development, the government on Friday told the Delhi High Court that trials of Covid-19 vaccines by Zydus Cadila for those aged between 12 and 18 years was being completed and vaccination of children would be possible after regulatory approvals. Zydus Cadila had on July 1 announced plans to roll out ZyCoV-D, their Covid-19 vaccine in 45-60 days after regulatory approvals and scaling up of manufacturing.

With the WHO warning about the third wave of the pandemic, Paul said the next 100 to 125 days would be very critical for the country as a large section of the population was still vulnerable.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 17 Jul 2021 05:36

Some more pricing information in this story:

New price good, but Rs 250 a dose better: Covid-19 vaccine makers

These doses are expected to be supplied between August and December and according to sources the government will pay Rs 215 per dose for Covishield and Rs 225 per dose for Covaxin (both inclusive of taxes). The manufacturers roughly get Rs 205 per dose for Covishield and Rs 214 per dose for Covaxin.

This is around 36-40 per cent more than the current price of Rs 150 per dose that they were receiving.

“Pricing is always a factor of volume. The price range of Rs 215-225 per dose is not bad, however, a price close to Rs 250 per dose is better,” said one Indian vaccine maker who is also developing Covid-19 vaccines. SII gets around $3 per dose from the COVAX initiative, and now the Indian price is close to that.

In the international markets, both Covishield and Covaxin fetch better prices.

SII sells Covishield, the AstraZeneca-Oxford dose to the global vaccine initiative COVAX for $3 or Rs 223 per dose. For this, it has received $300 million dollar risk-funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Countries like Mexico, Nepal, and Bangladesh procure Covishield for $4 per dose, while others like South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka buy at around $5 per dose.

Bharat Biotech has claimed it fetches anything between $15-20 per dose in the international market for Covaxin.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 17 Jul 2021 09:59

sankum wrote:Simple maths estimate.
Rs 14505 Cr total order value of 66 Cr doses.
34.5 Cr Covisheild @Rs 215/dose
31.5 Cr COVAXIN @Rs 225/dose

Nice linear regression answer, was too lazy to do that myself.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 17 Jul 2021 16:35

How long does it take to see the updated vaccination certificate on Cowin?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 17 Jul 2021 18:18

Thakur_B wrote:How long does it take to see the updated vaccination certificate on Cowin?

In my family, its been available within a few hours.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Jul 2021 18:41

It appears that India may have crossed 400 million vaccine doses administered today.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 17 Jul 2021 20:58

Suraj wrote:
sankum wrote:Simple maths estimate.
Rs 14505 Cr total order value of 66 Cr doses.
34.5 Cr Covisheild @Rs 215/dose
31.5 Cr COVAXIN @Rs 225/dose
Nice linear regression answer, was too lazy to do that myself.

Suraj San/ sankumji:

Look what I found this morning:

https://www.financialexpress.com/lifest ... t/2292288/

If you scroll down, you see this blurb:

Coronavirus Live Tracker: Govt to procure 66 crore more doses of Covishield, Covaxin at revised rates
The Centre has placed an order to procure 66 crore more doses of Covishield and Covaxin to be supplied between August and December this year, at a revised price of Rs 205 and Rs 215 per dose, respectively, excluding taxes, official sources said. They said 37.5 crore of Covishield doses from the Serum Institute of India and 28.5 crore Covaxin doses from Bharat Biotech will be procured by December. "An order to procure 66 crore more doses of COVID-19 vaccines--Covishield and Covaxin--to be supplied between August and December, at a revised price of Rs 205 and Rs 215 per dose, respectively, excluding taxes, has been placed," the source said. (PTI)

Since this is a rolling column, the story may disappear in a short while.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 17 Jul 2021 21:21

Friday at 7pm: 39,93,62,514: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1736284
Saturday at 7pm: 40,44,67,526: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1736458

40,44,67,526 - 39,93,62,514 = 51,05,012 on Saturday

Good number!

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 17 Jul 2021 22:07

Government buying Covishield at Rs 215, Covaxin at Rs 225

“We are on path to achieving the target of 50 crore doses by July 31, this is crucial towards meeting our target coverage by end of this year,” the senior official said. Nearly 40 crore doses were administered across the country till 10pm Friday.

Given Saturday July 17's figure of 40.55 crore doses total administered so far, it leaves a target of 9.55 crore doses to be administered in the remaining 14 days till July 31st.

9.55 crore doses / 14 days = 68.21 Lakh doses/ day average.

Given that Sunday numbers are usually low, they will have to administer an average of 75 lakh doses/ day from Monday through Saturday, starting Monday July 19th.

It can be done, but will be tough.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 18 Jul 2021 00:59

^^^It's a desired target and as the supply situation is improving, the daily average of vaccinations will only increase. Whether the 50 crore mark is reached by July 31st or August 2nd or 3rd doesn't matter as desired targets look very achievable. The last 10 days saw nearly 4 crore doses administered.

sankum · Post by **sankum** » 18 Jul 2021 01:13

. The Centre has placed an order to procure 66 crore more doses of Covishield and Covaxin to be supplied between August and December this year, at a revised price of Rs 205 and Rs 215 per dose, respectively, excluding taxes, official sources said. They said 37.5 crore of Covishield doses from the Serum Institute of India and 28.5 crore Covaxin doses from Bharat Biotech will be procured by December

Figures match Total order Rs 14505.75 Cr.

37.5 Cr Covisheild @ Rs 215.25/dose
28.5 Cr COVAXIN @ Rs 225.75/dose

With 5% VAT

Good find Kakkaji, Thanks.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 18 Jul 2021 06:41

Here is more confirmation for the vaccine order quantities I posted earlier:

Govt to procure 66 crore more doses of Covishield, Covaxin at revised rates

The Centre has placed an order to procure 66 crore more doses of Covishield and Covaxin to be supplied between August and December this year, at a revised price of ₹205 and ₹215 per dose, respectively, excluding taxes, official sources said.

They said 37.5 crore of Covishield doses from the Serum Institute of India and 28.5 crore Covaxin doses from Bharat Biotech will be procured by December.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 19 Jul 2021 04:53

Status of all Covaxin production facilities:

Not much Covaxin supply seen from PSUs till early next year

India’s Covid-19 vaccination drive is unlikely to get much help from public sector institutions roped in to push up production of the indigenous vaccine, Covaxin, if one goes by the progress reported by these organisations.

Barring Indian Immunologicals Limited (IIL), the Hyderabad-based subsidiary of the National Dairy Development Board, no other unit is likely to be in a position to commence vaccine production before December.

Two PSUs — Bharat Immunologicals and Biologicals Corporation (BIBCOL) under the Department of Biotechnology (DBT) and Haffkine Biopharmaceutical Corporation (under the Maharashtra Government) — have said they would start Covaxin production only next year. The Gujarat Biotechnology Research Centre (GBRC) may start producing earlier but not before November-December.

“We are moving as per the plan. We have started with the manufacturing and the first batch is already under testing,” said IIL Managing Director Anand Kumar. IIL is first off the block because it has a Biosafety Level-3 (BSL-3) facility, a must for handling deadly pathogens.

Kumar said IIL will make about 2-3 million doses a month initially in the first phase, and in the second phase, starting November-December, it would add another five million doses a month.

“By December we will be able to make a total of about 8 million doses a month. We are building a new facility at the same site, and it will be ready by December,” said Kumar.

Officials with BIBCOL, the Bulandshahr-based state-owned firm, specialising mainly in polio vaccine-making, said, it may need another five months to roll out Covaxin from its facility. “Currently we are in the process of setting up a BSL-3 facility, which is essential for handling the virus. We expect to start Covaxin production by early next year,” said YK Gupta, Chairman of Board of Directors, BIBCOL. Initially, the production would be 3 million doses a month, which would be ramped up to 7 million in three to four months and later beyond 10 million, Gupta said.

GBRC, which along with Ahmedabad-based animal vaccines maker, Hester Biosciences Limited, and OmniBRx Biotechnologies Private Limited, said it has already signed an MoU with Bharat Biotech for production of necessary drug substances for the vaccine production in Gujarat.

Rajiv Gandhi, MD, Hester Biosciences, said the term-sheet has already been signed and all the documentation has been finalised. "Construction is going on towards creating the required BSL-3 facility. We believe we would be able to go into production in the month of November or December," said Gandhi.

"The initial plan was to go for the production starting August 2021. But it seems that the process will take a little longer than that," said a source without divulging further details.

Haffkine Biopharma, which also received grants like others from the Centre for preparing themselves to produce Covaxin, said in June that it would be take at least eight months before this 125-year-old vaccine making facility becomes ready for producing Covaxin.

Even though Bharat Biotech has commited four plants to produce Covaxin, not all four have started producing the vaccine as yet. As a result, the current production capacity of the firm is around 25 million doses a month whereas it needs to ramp up the production to at least 80 million doses a month if it has to meet the target of 400 million (or 40 crore) by December. In addition, it has to clear a backlog of around 6 crore doses by end of July.

A Bharat Biotech source said, uncertainty had back the ramp-up. Now that phase 3 trials results are encouraging, the management will not hesitate to speed up the work.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Jul 2021 05:40

Kakkaji wrote:Friday at 7pm: 39,93,62,514: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1736284
Saturday at 7pm: 40,44,67,526: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1736458

40,44,67,526 - 39,93,62,514 = 51,05,012 on Saturday

Good number!

18 JUL 2021 10:25AM https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1736493

Actual number for Saturday it seems is 40,49,31,715

Total 40,49,31,715 - 39,93,62,514 = 55,69,201

Good way to end the week.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 19 Jul 2021 11:10

Monday morning at 8:00AM IST 19 JUL 2021: 40,64,81,493
From the Saturday 17 JUL 2021: 40,49,31,715

This means about 1.55 million vaccinations on Sunday 18 JUL 2021. A low number.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 19 Jul 2021 21:38

About 4.9 million doses administered around 8PM Monday 19 JUL 2021.
41,13,55,665 cumulative doses Day 185.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 20 Jul 2021 02:50

5.2 million today.

Spoke to my dad in Hyd and looks like vaccine availability is pretty good. Most of our security, drivers and maids walked in with their adage cards and got the dose in a govt hospital. The only delay is feeding in the data. Others than that it’s become a quick process

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 20 Jul 2021 04:11

7-day rolling rate of new COVID cases has turned positive and on rise in the US, UK, Germany, France and few other countries...time to be super cautious.

VenkataS · Post by **VenkataS** » 20 Jul 2021 05:01

We should increase security throughout the supply-chain of these vaccine production facilities if we have not done so already. These should be deemed as national security installations.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 20 Jul 2021 05:48

SUTRA Model for a few other countries:

- UK - Peaking around end of July - (Peak height may go up a little more) (One of the main nation to watch with Delta variant - Death rates will be lower in this wave because of vaccinatios)

- Indonesia (where vaccination rates are low - also Chinese vaccines not working too well) has major problem - Also peaking around the same time.

- India's neighbor Bangladesh-- Phase is stable and peaking in July-end.

Near my home, in USA - things are different in different states, but it is going to be serious everywhere. Watching/plotting a few states more of this in another post.