2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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bharathp
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by bharathp »

V_Raman wrote:what is this new caste census thing being bandied about. i am failing to understand where this is coming from.
I am thinking this is prashanth kishor's strat or the new BIF strat
they want to split Hindu votes into castes again
the caste census is to find out which castes are now "minority" or "backward" (not mutual, you can have a majority group thats backward)
and then it will be asked from ruling party for concessions. and then just lingayats were appeased to split from hinduism not too long ago, other castes will be pursued.
i think this is a clever strategy from their side. waiting to see how MAD counter it.
V_Raman
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by V_Raman »

the right solution is to build VISTA, new delimitation and increase the number of seats in parliament. then any caste based census is waste.
Ambar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

The past is the present, and the present is the future. Every ploy of mahagathbhandan orchestrated by their newly found messiah Prashant Kishore is old desi daaru packaged in a new colored plastic bottle. It is redux of mandal politics of the 80s and 90s but the idea is hardly new or novel, it was attempted last decade too in the form of various reservation agitations in every BJP run state . And now with UP around the corner, Nitish playing his usual games, Bengal debacle and a general election in 2 years time , MGB (Mahagatbhandhan) is once again going through its old worn out bag of tricks. Nitish wants caste census, Akhilesh Yadav wants caste census, Sharad Pawar wants caste census, Devegowda wants caste census, Momata doesn't care one way or another. At the most opportune time they'll demand a bigger reservation for various OBCs, this will be the next round of agitations after farmers agitation fizzles out. They will keep using the following sub-populations to further their agenda and hamstring the BJP government :

a. OBCs
b. Farmers and labors both skilled and unskilled.
c. Students.
d. Minorities.
e. Women

Classic marxist ploy really. You basically instigate those sections of the society that can be rapidly organized and carries a strong persecution feeling.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Ambar wrote:Classic marxist ploy really. You basically instigate those sections of the society that can be rapidly organized and carries a strong persecution feeling.
Which is why "SSS Vikas" of Modi is important. Benefits going to empower people of every section/group will weaken the ability of lumpen elements to organize them for instigatory activities.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SRajesh »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 197718.cms
and 'Kichidi' getting ready to be 'Potteed'!!!
Probably two camps in Opposition:
One favouring Cong leadership for the front
And the other preferably Mamata and PK!!
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SRajesh »

Probably SSS and revisiting Mandal with reservations is BJP formula of Mandal+Kamandal and SSS
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chanakyaa »

what is this new caste census thing being bandied about. i am failing to understand where this is coming from.
Is it because something on NRC is substantially may be moving forward? This may not be a bad news. I think BJP should come out in support of such census by saying this is an interesting idea. How can a caste census be accomplished without NRC being fully implemented down to last person in the border town of Mizoram? All oppo parties must support GoI in completing NRC, which will take another 5-6 years and reform caste based reservation to include income/wealth. Finish NRC and then only if satisfied, caste census. Spend another 5 years verifying/reverifying NRC, kick out bidis, Rohis ityadi. why waste an opportunity?
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

especially, no presstitutes, wokes, liberandus, and jnu jamaatis


Padma Shri list released for 2021, no Bollywood actor, no Cricketer, no politician, but ONLY down to earth people, who live and work for other people.

Modi government has completely side-lined all Delhi based Lutyens and Award Wapsi Gangs who were earlier enjoying full patronage from South/North Block Ministry Officials.

No wonder they are so upset, offended, vengeful and aggrieved.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

NCPCR Comprehensive Report: "for instance in West Bengal, 92.47% of the minority population is of Muslims and 2.47% are Christians,” says the report. “On the contrary, there are 114 Christian minority schools & only two schools with Muslim minority status"
via@by2kaafi

The full report 116 pages long can be downloaded from here: https://ncpcr.gov.in/showfile.php?lang= ... 1&lid=2041 via@by2kaafi
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

funny that none of these farmers allowed their sons to become farmers but depended on the state to nurture them and bring them up

so, who should be grateful to whom

Neeraj Chopra, is a farmer’s son.

The Singh-trio of hockey, Dilpreet, Gurjant & Hardik - are all sons of our farmers, and so is Bajrang Punia.

As we celebrate these medals, we must not forget the pain of our farmers who are protesting on the borders of New Delhi.
via@GulPanag
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sanjaykumar »

Subsidies.
bharathp
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by bharathp »

chetak wrote:
NCPCR Comprehensive Report: "for instance in West Bengal, 92.47% of the minority population is of Muslims and 2.47% are Christians,” says the report. “On the contrary, there are 114 Christian minority schools & only two schools with Muslim minority status"
via@by2kaafi

The full report 116 pages long can be downloaded from here: https://ncpcr.gov.in/showfile.php?lang= ... 1&lid=2041 via@by2kaafi
how many madrasas are there? count them and you will know.
while the RoL folks have their share of BIFs and their "convents" nurture a hatred or atleast indifference to anything indic, atleast they teach science and math
the madrasas on the other hand, are a double bonanza.. hatred of indics and no science
onlee
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_Sharma »

TWITTER

@Saffron 2034:

The level with which RW causally throws around imposing president rule in a conversation is proof of the absolute proof of pathetic civics knowledge.

In case of Bengal you cannot apply president rule. Mamta is sitting with 2/3 majority in her state. Their is no insurgency in the state. Hypothetically the moment if a president rule order is issued a PIL will be filed and SC will throw the file on centre's face.

It'll ask if the requirement of bommai judgement is full filled or not.

It'll ask if mamta government is in constitutional crisis ? Reply is no.
That's it. No further question will be asked. File will be thrown on face of central government.

You cannot dismiss a complete majority govt in today's time. Indira did it left and right becuase pre emergency day the only requirement of president rule was that if central government thinks a state is not fit to govern it'll be dismissed.

In today's time it can't be done.

What is being done are political killings. Mamta hasn't lost any control of her police. Their is no disaster in bengal that can't be controlled by their police. There's literally no way of imposing president rule there.

Imagine for a moment her government is assumed to be dismissed, president law can't be continued indefinitely. One day it'll have to be removed and elections will be held again.

She'll again play the sympathy card. And if she can win 2/3 majority with that broken leg drama can you imagine what a amazing victory she'll get after the imposition of president rule.
She'll get 294/294 seats. And imagine what will happen then.

So you want to hear the bitter truth ?

No you can't impose president rule. She's sitting with a humongous mandate.

The only way to fight is use her own strategy, the way she defeated left. Her cadre was literally slaughtered by the left till 2006. But she didn't stop fighting.

The only way you can defeat leftist regime is by Brute street power. Nothing else will work.

You can keep blaming modi and Shah. And it's your right. But the fact is that it's not even Muslim only. Almost 60% of Hindus have voted for her too. So they obviously want her.

Bengal will change when the bengalis will want to to change. The day they vote her out.

Until then we can keep crying on twitter make memes on modi & Shah. It'll be useless.

The only way to defeat an extremely popular regional party is Brute street force. That's it.

Again to the people that I am saying that I am blindly defending BJP is not true. But to say that they are not doing anything that is also absolutely wrong. They are doing everything that can be possible for centre. They sent CBI ED NHRC and suvendu has been on ground since day 1

The only thing where they failed was the absolute lack of communication from the central government for the cadre. A word of sympathy from Namo himself would have made a huge change. it would have energise the cadre and boosted their morale. I’ve no idea why they didn’t do it

A question that people are asking that can we should we bring an amendment to change the president law procedure ? Yes absolutely. but it will again be dismissed by the Supreme Court citing that it is violating the basic doctrine of constitution of which sovereignty is a part.

Moreover no government will dare to risk such an amendment because the day they will go out of power their own state government will be dismissed by the same law.

One day congress will again be back in power ( face it its inevitable ). If Mumbai judgement is amended right now the day congress comes to power it will dismiss the BJP state governments under the same law.

Power only look good till your preferred government is ruling in Centre

The best example is of UAPA. Congress bought it thinking that BJP will never get an absolute majority of its own so let’s use it to harass our opposition. Now bjp is using the same UAPA to give congress a taste of it’s own medicine and congress has been screaming since 7 years.

There will be many accounts that will shower worst abuses on modi and Shah. Beware of them. 90% of them are Congress bots created in year 2021. Following is a simple check to find if it's a genuine RW or Congress BOT

For those people that have free time and want to get into depth of Indian polity, they can refer to "Polity - Laxmikant" book. It's gita of parliamentary affairs. If you've a lot of free time on your hand and you're a political enthusiast, read it.

https://twitter.com/Saffron2034/status/ ... 13985?s=19
Vayutuvan
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vayutuvan »

Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER

@Saffron 2034:

The level with which RW causally throws around imposing president rule in a conversation is proof of the absolute proof of pathetic civics knowledge.
...
https://twitter.com/Saffron2034/status/ ... 13985?s=19
Manish Sharma ji, this is very fascinating. Is this a tweet thread from Saffron2034?
Manish_Sharma
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_Sharma »

^Yes
vijayk
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »



Vinod Sharma Retweeted
हिरण्यरेता
@Hiranyareta Aug 10
This one-minute summary of BJP's present plan of action to uproot the fort of Nehruvian politics and prevent itself from going back to 160+ party like in the days of Windbag Ii and playing Majesty's 'loyal opposition. Full video at this link.
https://youtu.be/iZG6tfS784A
1/3
Last edited by vijayk on 12 Aug 2021 05:58, edited 1 time in total.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

What the presstitutes showed you and what they didn't


Image


Image
venkat_kv
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

Vayutuvan wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER

@Saffron 2034:

The level with which RW causally throws around imposing president rule in a conversation is proof of the absolute proof of pathetic civics knowledge.
...
https://twitter.com/Saffron2034/status/ ... 13985?s=19
Manish Sharma ji, this is very fascinating. Is this a tweet thread from Saffron2034?
Vayutavan Saar,
There was an exact analysis posted by journalist Raka Sudhakar, an analyst and pro indic voice after the bengal violence. i had attached his video then, his video is in telugu for the uninitiated. Something similar about dismissal of mamata govt was also said by Bhau Torsekar, a Marathi journalist where he gives the example of post emergency Indira coming out of jail to finish Janata Party coalition after putting her in jail got her sympathy.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7837&start=3960#p2498624
Prem Kumar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Prem Kumar »

Good news on the Kashmiri Pandit front - at least, a start has been made!

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 257198.cms

Eventually, the entire land including PoK will return to its rightful owners, the Pandits - inshallah!
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Prem Kumar »

In the not-so-great-news, only 2 people outside Kashmir have been able to purchase land in it. Looks like the old rules (pre 370 abrogation) still rule the roost. This is like passing the CAA act but not notifying the rules.

Hope this is not by design & will be rectified soon:

https://twitter.com/AnkurSharma_Adv/sta ... 4293233668
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vimal »

Prem Kumar wrote:In the not-so-great-news, only 2 people outside Kashmir have been able to purchase land in it. Looks like the old rules (pre 370 abrogation) still rule the roost. This is like passing the CAA act but not notifying the rules.

Hope this is not by design & will be rectified soon:

https://twitter.com/AnkurSharma_Adv/sta ... 4293233668
Serious q, why would you buy land in J&K.
It was and still is terrorist infested place with no economic worth.
Last edited by vimal on 13 Aug 2021 04:34, edited 1 time in total.
Cyrano
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

V_Raman wrote:the right solution is to build VISTA, new delimitation and increase the number of seats in parliament. then any caste based census is waste.
How will increasing seats change caste politics? I don't see it.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

Cyrano wrote:How will increasing seats change caste politics? I don't see it.
Generally there is also 'reservation' in state assembly seats and parliamentary seats. Seats are ear-marked for women, SC/ST etc. Now if seats have increased and most of them gets classified as SC/ST reservation that will lead to changes in caste politics.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

Thats what I thought Sachin ji, it won't eliminate caste politics. May actually make it worse.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

RaGa it appears to have found out that the government got only 40% of the votes. So has started saying that this government doesn't represent the 60% of Indian population.

This is brilliant at so many levels that I am not sure who exactly came up with it.

By claiming that the opposition represent 60% of the votes he is beginning to lay down the foundation for rejection of 2024 mandate. If it's for NDA.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by srin »

By the same token, 80.5% of the country doesn't believe him ...
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Just weeks after Yeddiyurappa's resignation and Basvaraj Bommai taking over as the new CM of Karnataka, it looks like the BJP 2.0 government is once again in trouble for the exact same reasons - factionalism. The mammoth Bommai cabinet which already has 29 ministers to run the state (and if news is to be believed it will be further expanded), has hit rough waters just days after the cabinet announcement with the ever controversial mining baron turned politician Anand Singh demanding a different portfolio. Anand Singh, who was with INC (who btw has switched parties thrice in 10 yrs) just 2 years ago and was one of the key players in bringing down the JDS-INC government in state. is said to be unhappy with his current and rather ironic portfolio of Min. of Environment & Ecology .

On the other hand Bommai visiting HD Devegowda at his residence just days after coming to power has started a rumor mill that the BJP govt senses it may not last much long and will need to come to an agreement with JDS to form a coalition government in the state.

While i have said here several times over the last year that the return of INC with a thumping majority in Karnataka is nearly guaranteed, after fumbling the governance spectacularly for the 2nd time in a row the BJP will have plenty of time to think about the future while in opposition. If BJP has any real chances of coming back to power in the years to come then they need to start with a clean slate and rid of all the current "leaders" and start fresh. However so broken is the state on lines of castes, subcastes, and corruption that there is little hope of that ever happening.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sudarshan »

Pratyush wrote:RaGa it appears to have found out that the government got only 40% of the votes. So has started saying that this government doesn't represent the 60% of Indian population.

This is brilliant at so many levels that I am not sure who exactly came up with it.

By claiming that the opposition represent 60% of the votes he is beginning to lay down the foundation for rejection of 2024 mandate. If it's for NDA.
Au contraire, he is making it easier for the BJP to start talking about reforming the first-past-the-post system. It will turn out to be another brilliant self goal for the INC.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ashokk »

West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee invited to global peace event in Rome
KOLKATA: Chief minister Mamata Banerjee has been invited to Rome to attend an international event on peace — ‘Peoples as Brothers, Future Earth’ — on October 6-7 in recognition of her contributions to social justice and commitment towards the underprivileged and disadvantaged.
The other invitees include Pope Francis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Great Imam of Al Azhar (Egypt) Ahmad al Tayyib.
The invite from Marco Impagliazzo, president of the Community of Sant’Egidio, which is based in Rome, was sent to the chief minister on July 22. It congratulated her “on your significant election and for the important work for social justice, for the development of your country and, therefore, for peace, which you have been doing for over ten years now”. :shock:
The invite also said: “Allow me to tell you that I feel your commitment and your generous battles in favor of the weakest and most disadvantaged, very close to my sensitivity and to the work of the Community of Sant’Egidio in Rome and in all the world.”
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by khatvaanga »

Telugu grapevine is that a 'Former Union Minister from TDP met Amit Shah and will join BJP in coming days".

speculation is that the former union miniter from TDP is Ashoka Gajapati Raju.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by gauravsh »

Every now and then there is a huge roar about the advertisement money spent by the Modi govt. Most of the stuff I find is from wire / ndtv stuff. Any pointers to where I can find a more rational analysis of the data.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

By 2024 Sharad Pawar will be 83 yrs old, Devegowda will be 93, Mulayam Singh Yadav will be 84 - so the three remaining leaders of post-mandal politics will all be pretty old to have any claim to the 3rd front PM candidacy. This leaves us with Nitish Kumar, Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, Chandrababu Naidu and Momta didi. It is clear by this time that the new maestro of MGB (Mahagathbhandhan) is Prashant Kishore, he does not get along with Nitesh Kumar, Mayawati wont be acceptable to Akhilesh, Akhilesh wont be acceptable to anyone and Chandrababu Naidu's political future in his own state is shaky so projecting him as a pan-India leader is a non-starter.

This leaves us with Momta didi and PK himself. By building up Momta as the leader of the 3rd front PK is playing the long game. She is mercurial , has zero charisma , she is not acceptable at national level but yet by proposing her as the MGB candidate PK wants a backdoor entry to the candidacy. There are bound to be coalition partners who will be uncomfortable working with someone like Momata which can help PK project himself as the neutral, acceptable candidate from TMC. Nothing else explains the madness of trying to prop her up for the candidacy. The usual trick in Indian politics when you don't have a strong leader is to wait until the elections are over and then name a leader but PK seems to be working on a opposite strategy perhaps because he feels like there should be a "face" if they have any chances of winning against Modi. Either way the 3rd front is doomed without INCs blessings, and if INC manages to cross 3 digit seats on its own then there's no ways they'll play the bridesmaid to Momta or PK or anyone from 3rd front.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chaitanya »

sudarshan wrote: Au contraire, he is making it easier for the BJP to start talking about reforming the first-past-the-post system. It will turn out to be another brilliant self goal for the INC.
Is there discussion to reform first-past-the-post? If so, RaGa is an even bigger idiot... any idea what is in discussion? Ranked choice?
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Shri RVS Mani was a former officer of the Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt of India, posted in the Internal Security Division between 2006 and 2010. He was in the control room of Ministry of Home Affairs in New Delhi on that fateful night of 26-11, tracking minute to minute developments in Mumbai.





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcCrh1DUJbY



RVS Mani speaks about unanswered questions of 26-11



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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

In his book 'The Myth of Hindu terror' RVS Mani has written about the 26/11 conspiracy at length. While i have no doubt that there more than 10 terrorists who hit Mumbai on that fateful day, and they definitely had local support, RVS Mani at times can come across as someone with colorful conspiracy theories. He is a frequent visitor on PGurus youtube channel where he's been talking about 26/11 for years now.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vayutuvan »

Thanks for the youtube link. I will go through the video. I also subscribed to raka lokam. How is the channel?
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vayutuvan »

Pratyush wrote:By claiming that the opposition represent 60% of the votes he is beginning to lay down the foundation for rejection of 2024 mandate. If it's for NDA.
Taken from the playbook of The Hillary Clinton 2016 campaign. The usual objection to Trump being not the president is because Clinton won the popular vote. That went on for four years of Trump presidency a 2 million vote advantage out of a total of 80+ million had been touted. This might be due to Sam Pitroda getting dictated the talking points by Clinton's campaign folks.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

twitter
Reporter for Canadian state TV says India has duty to rescue NY Times reporters stuck in Afghanistan!

How can foreign citizens on foreign soil have right to Govt of India resources?

We are required to serve NYT because we are brown skinned?

Why shouldn’t @nytimes ask for help? Criticizing government in a democracy should not prevent it from assisting journalists in danger. All journalists criticize governments. That’s the job. Is there a quid pro quo in India that government helps only journalists who kowtow??
viaChris O'Neill-Yates@oneillyatescbc · 6h


and this is where she is coming from, the liberally privileged racist woke, and entitled white skinned presstitute

Be it the incredible images of India’s pandemic funeral pyres, Rohingya refugees, the brutality of cow vigilantism, or a heartwarming shot of a boy on a bicycle carrying his dog piggyback, Danish Siddiqui’s lens enlightened us. A tremendous loss.
viaChris O'Neill-Yates@oneillyatescbc·25 Jul
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sudarshan »

chaitanya wrote: Is there discussion to reform first-past-the-post? If so, RaGa is an even bigger idiot... any idea what is in discussion? Ranked choice?
I don't think there is a discussion yet, but the idiot can help get it started. Let him keep at it.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

the NYT seems afraid that their "journos" will have some encounters of the third kind, a la danish siddiqi, with some ameriki made, taliban chauffered humvees that were gifted to the talibs by bidenwa,

The New York Times that publishes a Sirajuddin Haqqani Op-ed, the same New York Times that consistently badmouths Modi’s India, now turns to Modi’s India with a request to facilitate evacuation of its journalists from Kabul.

All the irony that’s fit to print.
via@AdityaRajKaul·11h
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