Reminds me of some parents who, when their daughter get 99 (out of 100) marks in an exam ask " what happened to the 1 point??"(shouldn't it be 2-3 more days before we cross 400 million for people with at least one dose?)
("2-3" more days will eventually come! )
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On a more serious note:
The Sutra model (its recent projection about "third wave" which I posted about a month ago) - parameters seem quite stable and the projection is IMO quite reliable. Unless we get some new strain which is immunity escape and more infectious than Delta - there will just a ripple ... about 50 thousand/day or so of the peak.
Even if vaccinations do not go fast *and* say "contact parameter" (transmissivity of new variant increases or people go wild et) increase slightly -- we are still okay - still about 50 thousand/day or so at the peak.
Some states (like Kerala) may/will see some local peaks but overall we would be okay - health infrastructure will not be strained compared to earlier waves.
If we get a, say 25% more transmissive variant then delta - and vaccines etc are effective at most conservative values (say 50% only)..*even* than the peak will be as bad as first wave (about 100K/day of reported cases)..
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Looking back at the entire year - the model has been incredibly accurate - except for Delta (no model can predict if/when there would be a bad variant) - and in March/April time of phase transition.
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