Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

[Leonard]

The question that needs to be asked -- where is the $$$$$$$ -- moolah coming from ie -- Follow the $$$$$$$

Talibs are driving brand new TOYOTA pickups -- Apparently TOYOTA dealers had the Largest ever Turnover in Paki/Pubistan .. -- So where did this $$$$$$ come from -- Pakis are Broke -- Imrand is Selling his Buffaloes and Renting out his whore-house ...

Each Toyota Truck is like $40,000 -- $50,000 -- Bigger models like TUNDRAs are closer to $75K ...

Who is PAYING for the DIESEL / PETROL -- that is being used up ? Mullah Sandwich/Diesel can't do this on his own ...

How are the HUMVEES -- which give 4 Miles per Gallon -- getting fueled ? How many $$$$ per fuel up of an Humvee ?

Talibs are getting loaded with Weapons -- AK-47s, RPG's, Grenades, Ammo, Binoc's etc -- who's paying for that ??

What about GOSHT for the TALIB's -- They are getting fresh food -- Not the DONKEY meat -- That's for the ABDULs ... Who's paying $$$$

Talib's also need to feed their 1 -2 DOZEN -- rug-rats/5 women/5 Dozen goats -- Where's that coming from $$$


This might be another PET project from certain deep state to "drag" in the POKER PLAYERS ...

Pakis
Chinese
Russians
Qataris

What's the POT $$$$ on the table ?

From keeping track of the $$$$$ flowing in -- we will SLOWLY get answers -- Then we can DEAL with the Hands ... All in Good time ...

[ramana]

Same mistakes as in Iraq. They fired the Iraqi army rank and file who went on to form the sunni ISIS.

Exactly. There was a US official Paul Bremer Executive order #2 disbanded the Iraqi Army


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Bremer
Dejavu all over again.

[ramana]

Leonard, Only US has money to squander in slush funds.
Good questions.

[ramana]

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/13/10273905 ... evacuation

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/1 ... ve-updates
Taliban nears Kabul as major cities fall in Afghanistan: Live
Taliban seizes six more provincial capitals in a single day as the US, European countries evacuate embassy staff.
Tamila Varshalomidze and Mersiha Gadzo, 13 Aug 2021
The Taliban armed group has captured the provincial capitals, Qalat, Terenkot, Pul-e-Alam, Feruz Koh, Qal-e-Naw and Lashkar Gah, hours after capturing Herat and Kandahar cities.
It so far has control over 18 provincial capitals across Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is tipping towards civil war and the West must understand that the Taliban is not a single entity but a title for a myriad of competing interests, the United Kingdom’s defence minister says.
“Britain found that out in the 1830s, that it is a country led by warlords and led by different provinces and tribes, and you end up, if you’re not very careful in a civil war, and I think we are heading towards a civil war,” Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells the BBC.
“The Taliban is not entirely a single entity, they break down underneath the title into all sorts of different interests,” Wallace said.
.....
Gautam

Gautam, I think the plan is for Kabul to fall on August 14 Pakistan Independence day. Lets see if that happens.

[chetak]

Same mistakes as in Iraq. They fired the Iraqi army rank and file who went on to form the sunni ISIS.

Exactly. There was a US official Paul Bremer Executive order #2 disbanded the Iraqi Army


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Bremer
Dejavu all over again.

and they were mostly allowed to keep their weapons

[Vips]

What are the chances of an effective non-pashtun front like the Northern alliance coming up or getting revived? Where is Rashid Dostum?? Taliban having no opposition or competition means Pakistan getting carte blanche in Afghanistan.

[g.sarkar]

Leonard, Only US has money to squander in slush funds.
Good questions.

Ramanaji, When you are old all you have left is anecdotes. Now, we know the US spent billions of dollars in Afghanistan, the question is on what did they spend all that money? At my place of work, we used to have one week of annual training. A part of it was in the range, and this was run mostly by ex-service men (often marines) as they knew all about weapons. I remember, quite a few years ago, our trainers were very excitedly talking about new job opportunities in Iraq and Afghanistan, as security experts with private security companies. My trainers were willing to take an early retirement to go abroad. It seems that there were plenty of jobs going in both these countries for private soldiers with “security” background. I asked them what was the going rate? Well, they were asking for $150K-200K plus per year. I then asked them was that not a little too steep? They told me that in California they were making around $100K per year. They certainly expected more in a faraway country where their life could be in danger. They also told me that there were tax advantages in working in Iraq and Afghanistan. Food and accommodation was also included. That made it very attractive.
Unlike India, the billions spent by the US in Afghanistan went to line the pockets of US businessmen and corrupt Afghan politicians and warlords. As the saying goes, you can not buy an Afghan, you can only rent him. American money came back to America. Nation building was not important, money was not invested there. After the US leaves, there will not be much to show for all that money spent. It is indeed Maya. On the other hand everyone can see the infrastructure projects that India financed.
Gautam

[Ambar]

What are the chances of an effective non-pashtun front like the Northern alliance coming up or getting revived? Where is Rashid Dostum?? Taliban having no opposition or competition means Pakistan getting carte blanche in Afghanistan.

Taliban is the opposition to taliban. The taliban is not and has never been a monolithic force, while the canon fodder aka the "talibs" (students) were from deobandi seminaries in Afghanistan and Pakistan in the 80s and early 90s, their leaders were warlords running their own fiefdoms. Lets go back 20 years to Oct of 2001 and remember how easily the coalition forces just walked in and took over Kabul ? It was easy because there was no government or a military to speak of. The warlords just shrugged off, took their cut of the dollars & **** from the new force in town and went about their business. Now that the coalition forces are packing up, the same warlords claim to be the taliban.

Within the next few days the "taliban" will take over Kabul and what will follow is what happened in the 90s after Najibullah was out of the way. i.e. one warlord fighting against another and a namesake "leader" in Kabul or Kandahar who only controlled his men and not all the tribes and clans across Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Its a cursed country which has been in turmoil for more than a 1000 years, the only way forward is to split and splinter it. Trouble is, the geography is so inhospitable that it will be near impossible to hold the borders. Somehow i feel Pakistan is about to pay a very high price for its duplicity, and no, i don't think the confused and delusional yanks are the ones who will be extracting it.

[yensoy]

Has there been any discussion around Taliban using Pakistan for strategic depth? In the past, the Pakistani army wanted depth and considered Afghanistan under Taliban as it's own real estate.

This is indeed a great point and a possibility. There is worry in Pakiland about TTP, and the Pakhtunistan movement which aims to reunite Pakhtun lands on both sides of the Durand line. It is well within the realm of possibility for a super state to emerge under hardcore islamic rule covering AfPak. That may actually not be a bad thing - pushing Pak a few centuries further back, and possibly pulling Afghanistan a few centuries ahead from where they are today.

[sidp]

We should definitely plan to evacuate Amarullah Saleh and his family to safety before Kabul falls. He is a true friend of India. Pakibans wont spare him for sure.

[Ambar]

We should definitely plan to evacuate Amarullah Saleh and his family to safety before Kabul falls. He is a true friend of India. Pakibans wont spare him for sure.

He is rumored to be in Tajakistan, besides he has friends in Europe and the US so he'll be fine as long as he plays it smart.

[Vinod Ji]

Bluntly put

China, pakistan & russia benefitting.
Usa loosing face n credibility like in Vietnam.
India having to cope with battle hardened terrorists/jehadis

Afganistan having a civil war / unrest.eventually breaking up with largest being pakhtunistan under the influence of pakistan. Other areas under influence of bordering nations. Afganistan might cease to exist as we know it. Whole region becoming unstable.

[chetak]

As expected, runditeevee provides an all India platform for the taliban like it usually does for paki terrorists.

runditeevee interviewed the taliban spokesperson muhammad sohail shaheen who defended his terror outfit from accusations of crime.




and this is the version that the Indian muslims will believe.

Mission accomplished

[chetak]

poisonous uncle



and venomous auntie, both are congi and also commie pasand

[chetak]

Bluntly put

China, pakistan & russia benefitting.
Usa loosing face n credibility like in Vietnam.
India having to cope with battle hardened terrorists/jehadis

Afganistan having a civil war / unrest.eventually breaking up with largest being pakhtunistan under the influence of pakistan. Other areas under influence of bordering nations. Afganistan might cease to exist as we know it. Whole region becoming unstable.

eyran will not shy away from claiming its share of the afghan territory over which it has historic and ethinic ties

[CalvinH]

The question that needs to be asked -- where is the $$$$$$$ -- moolah coming from ie -- Follow the $$$$$$$

Talibs are driving brand new TOYOTA pickups -- Apparently TOYOTA dealers had the Largest ever Turnover in Paki/Pubistan .. -- So where did this $$$$$$ come from -- Pakis are Broke -- Imrand is Selling his Buffaloes and Renting out his whore-house ...

Taliban now control all the border crossings and trade. They can make their own money.

Didn't see any videos of Talibs driving brand new Toyota trucks. Like the one we saw for ISIS. Do you have any link?

Rest of the armaments is all ANA stuff. Humvees, M-4s with all accessories, NVG etc. They got brand new Scan Eagle drones too..

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 4038408196

Oil - they must be getting it from Iran. They can pay for it. Plus not sure if Iran is charging as Taliban's are friendly towards Iran. There are no Hazara massacres in Taliban captured Hazara dominated areas.

[Manish_P]

^ and don't forget the most important crop in Afghanistan- poppy

UN Survey Finds 37% Spike in Afghan Poppy Cultivation

The United Nations said Monday that opium cultivation in conflict-ridden Afghanistan increased by 37% in 2020 compared to the previous year, potentially producing an estimated 6,300 tons of opium.

Afghanistan’s southwestern region, as usual, accounted for 71% of total opium production, while cultivation in the eastern region had reduced by 28%.

Southern Helmand province, which is mostly controlled or contested by Taliban insurgents, remained the country’s major opium poppy cultivating province.

Poppy cultivation has increased in most regions of the country, with 22 out of 34 Afghan provinces growing the opium poppy last year, decreasing the number of poppy-free provinces from 13 to 12 when compared to 2019.

[viveks]

Yeh toh desh ko ujadne raaton raat capital pahunch gaye...

[Cyrano]

Documentary on UK Camp Bastion being dismantled in Afghanistan. Those advocating for Indian boots on the ground will appreciate the colossal logistics & equipment that went into building it and now dismantling it

[uddu]

Without capturing PoK and further, Afghanistan will remain out of bounds for us. If PoK and further territory in our hands, then there is no need to dismantle anything ever. We will be home.

[pralay]

Gautam, I think the plan is for Kabul to fall on August 14 Pakistan Independence day. Lets see if that happens.

Ramana ji, I was wondering the very same yesterday, whether Afg and Pak/India will have same day as independence day

[SRajesh]

EAS Jaishankar being an ex-diplomat, I feel has played the cards right and the ex-Foreign Sec's don't like that junior is doing better than they ever could!!
Afghan or Blinken, Quad or Shangai group, all that the ex-FS(paki pasand or not) predictions have fallen flat!
Let Bunnies take over Kabul and for the dust to settle for any engagement with them.
I read a statement from Talib negotiator in Doha, that India should not send troops but its help in building infrastructure is appreciated!!
Despite all the prediction, the Dam India built has not been destroyed
I

[kit]

There will a boom in narcotics trade from the Golden Crescent., As Taliban has the most profitable way to make money

Now

The soon going to be biggest opium producing country
Next door nuclear armed Army run country sponsoring terrorism

The worst mix of narco fuelled terrorism with access to nukes will flood western countries

India needs tighter border controls

Coming times would see the narco jehadis spread to central Asia

[srin]

I wonder if Afghanistan is worth saving. The people don't seem to have a sense of nationality, nor the will to defend themselves. How can cities fall to the bunnies and how come there are no pitched urban warfare battles ?

[Pratyush]

The surprising or not so surprising part is the combat ineffectiveness of the ANA.

After all this time and effort. They have absolutely not been able to come together as a coherent force.

[jamwal]

I posted a poll on Twitter, interested to see what people around think. Results so far after 3-4 hours.

Should India provide military and financial/logistical aid to #Afghanistan?
I'm not in favour of any Indian aid of any type to Afghanistan in near future. Who is a deserving recipient and how'll you ensure that it's utilised well and not used against India?


Yes, both. - 10%
Only financial/logistical - 30%
Only military aid - 15%
No aid at all - 45%

https://twitter.com/JaidevJamwal/status ... 7959209986

[g.sarkar]

Without capturing PoK and further, Afghanistan will remain out of bounds for us. If PoK and further territory in our hands, then there is no need to dismantle anything ever. We will be home.

Dividing Pakistan into 4 or 5 parts should be the goal. That will reverse the trends that started with the partition. Capturing POK is important, but it is not the ultimate goal.
Gautam

[g.sarkar]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/us/p ... istan.html
Fearing Kabul’s Fall, U.S. Officials Implore Afghans to ‘Fight’
The calls to action underscore the stark reality that the United States has no intention of rescuing government forces.
Michael Crowley, Aug. 13, 2021
As the Afghan government lost control of more than a dozen cities in a matter of days, Biden administration officials repeatedly urged its collapsing security forces to demonstrate “leadership” and “will” to defend Kabul, their capital — underscoring the stark reality that the United States has no intention of rescuing them as the Taliban storm across the country.
Echoing several other top U.S. officials in recent days, John F. Kirby, a Defense Department spokesman, noted to reporters on Friday that Afghan government forces had numerical and firepower advantages over the Taliban and suggested they should be able to stop the onslaught if only they tried hard enough.
“We will do what we can from the air, but they have the advantage. They have greater numbers. They have an air force. They have modern weaponry,” he said. “It’s time now to use those advantages.” A day earlier, Mr. Kirby was more explicit. “No potential outcome has to be inevitable, including the fall of Kabul,” he said. “It doesn’t have to be that way. It really depends on the kind of political and military leadership that the Afghans can muster to turn this around.”
President Biden has spoken in similar terms, saying on Tuesday that Afghan forces “have got to want to fight.” The next day, Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said the Afghans “have what they need,” but must determine whether they have “the political will to fight back.”
But Afghan forces are suffering from shattered morale, diminishing supplies, and the shock of a war they are losing much faster than all but the most pessimistic analysts expected.
.....
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/11/us/p ... pe=Article
Taliban Advances in Afghanistan Could Bring Political Peril for Biden
The president had hoped to win credit for ending one of America’s “forever wars.” But new risks are coming into view.
Michael Crowley, Aug. 11, 2021
When President Biden announced his plan to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the politics seemed relatively simple: Many polls showed that Americans supported ending the country’s nearly 20-year involvement in a war whose goals had become obscure.
But four months later, with the Taliban storming across the country much faster and more ruthlessly than expected, new political risks are coming into view for Mr. Biden, who had hoped to win credit for ending what he has called one of America’s “forever wars.”
Now U.S. officials are racing to evacuate Afghans who assisted the American military and may be targets of Taliban reprisals, and are contemplating the prospect of hastily evacuating the 4,000 Americans at the U.S. Embassy in the capital city of Kabul.
The threat of a Taliban conquest and new risks to U.S. personnel and allies in the country could cause Americans who had been paying little attention to Afghanistan for the past several years to reconsider their views, particularly if Republicans amplify a message of American failure and capitulation.
“Everybody’s worried about a repeat of the Saigon images,” said Brian Katulis, a foreign policy expert at the liberal Center for American Progress, referring to the chaotic April 1975 evacuation of the American Embassy in South Vietnam’s capital. Desperate Vietnamese clung to the struts of departing helicopters as the city was being conquered by Communist forces.
Americans remain focused on domestic matters like the coronavirus and the economy, and are unlikely to care much that the Taliban have captured unfamiliar cities like Kunduz, said Mr. Katulis, who has studied public opinion about foreign policy.
“But this could change,” he added. “If you have a parade of horribles continue to unfold in Afghanistan, it could seep into the public consciousness the way Iraq did in 2013 and 2014” when the Islamic State stormed across that country after American troops withdrew.
Speaking to reporters at the White House on Tuesday, Mr. Biden said he did “not regret” his decision, noting that the United States continued to support Afghanistan’s government and security forces but adding, “They’ve got to fight for themselves.”
........
Gautam

[srin]

I don't think we have too much to worry about Afghanistan effect on J&K. I think that the border fairly secure. I also think there is a "speckled band" effect (read Sherlock Holmes for the reference) - that if we push back hard, the menace is going to attack the host. So, I think it can lead to some interesting times for the Bakis.

Also, for all that Russia is playing some games (not inviting India to meetings etc), their backyard - Tajikistan etc - are the ones going to be in trouble.

[nam]

You just contradicted yourselves in two paras. How can a rental state get high on defeating two super power BS. Most Pakis know the truth about their role. The others either fake it and have money/franchises in Europe/US or have short lives.

To quote Hamid Gul, "we defeated the Soviets using American money, now we will defeat the Americans using American money". It doesn't matter who knows the reality. There are enough yahoos in Pak, who will believe they have defeated 2 superpowers and there are enough Generals ready to take money from anyone to meet their goals.

PA Generals will make any deal needed with anyone to prevent blowback of their actions and will prepare enough yahoos to go around destroying things, because the yahoos believe they will win and just need to bid their time.

There is no contradiction as far as Pak is concerned.

[chandrabhan]

I fail to understand why are indians getting undies in twist over Afghanistan? Moreover it is Afghans killing Afghans and implementing Sharia, which Afghans themselves want. They want and they are getting it. Whoever doesn't want, leave islam and come to india. On serious note, India has enough cards to play and make this war long drawn and drag it to propose partition along ethnic lines. Pashtoons can have their homeland down south and have a border free bonhomie with their cousins across the Durand line.
They were the ones raiding Punjab and then ruling north as Lodhi sultanate. Butchered Hindus..aligned with Mughals & again butchered. Filled Harmandir sahib's pond with Horse shit and broke the temple. What are we lamenting actually? It is good for us that they will find their own strategic depth in Pak... TTP is there

[chetak]

FATAH: Chris Alexander’s voice in the wilderness

FATAH: Chris Alexander’s voice in the wilderness

Tarek Fatah
Aug 11, 2021

Former immigration minister Chris Alexander is pictured at the Toronto Sun office on April 18, 2017.


Former immigration minister Chris Alexander is pictured at the Toronto Sun office on April 18, 2017. PHOTO BY DAVE ABEL /Postmedia Network

Article content

If the betrayal of Afghanistan by its American and British allies confounds you, perhaps a reading of the late Egyptian-French political scientist Samir Amin would help us understand this all-too-common phenomenon.

In describing the world through the lens of the North-South divide, Amin said: “Never have the armies of the North (the West) brought peace, prosperity, or democracy to the peoples of the South (Asia, Africa, or Latin America).”

Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani too blamed the country’s deteriorating security on the United States deciding “abruptly” to withdraw its troops.

“The reason for our current situation is that the decision was taken abruptly,” he told Parliament, adding he had warned Washington the withdrawal would have consequences.

Yet, it is individual voices in the West who have stood up over the din and speak truth to power in exposing the criminal silence of their own governments as they make common cause with tyrannical governments in the South.

One such voice is that of Chris Alexander, Canada’s former ambassador in Kabul and minister of citizenship and immigration in former prime minister Stephen Harper’s cabinet. Alexander also served in Kabul from 2005 to 2009 as deputy special representative for Afghanistan responsible for political affairs, relations with the Afghan government, the international community and the military.

For some time, Alexander has singlehandedly pointed to the catastrophe facing Afghanistan that has such rogue states as Iran and Pakistan as its neighbours.

In May this year, Alexander openly referred to the Taliban as conducting Pakistan’s proxy war and then let loose a series of tweets warning the world about the real culprits behind the death and destruction raining on Afghanistan as soon as the Americans abandoned ship and ran away from their responsibilities in the middle of the night.

The Taliban had conned America during the Doha ‘Peace Talks’ despite warnings by many that the jihadi terrorists were practising the fine art of lying employed by many Islamist groups.

Alexander unfortunately seems to have been given no time on the airwaves or presence in print. In fact, Canadian editors and TV pundits seemed to have made it a point to keep his words out of circulation.

Thanks to Twitter, Alexander’s views came as a breath of fresh air for Afghans who needed no convincing that the Taliban attacks originated from across the border in Pakistan.

It was left to Alexander to expose Pakistan’s hidden hands. His current pinned tweet says:

“There will be no permanent ceasefire in Afghanistan without sanctions on Pakistan. Pakistan’s ‘forever war’ must end.” He added the hashtag #SanctionPakistan, which later was trending worldwide.

There will be no permanent ceasefire in Afghanistan without sanctions against Pakistan.

Pakistan's 'forever war' must end.#EndProxyWar #SanctionPakistan

— Chris Alexander (@calxandr) August 2, 2021

In other tweets that surely left the generals in Pakistan seething with anger, Alexander tweeted: “Pakistan’s invasion of Afghanistan constitutes an armed attack and act of aggression under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. The international community must take action under Articles 41 or 42 to uphold international law and the rules-based international order. #SanctionPakistan.”

Alexander’s tweets finally got the Pakistan government to react. On Aug. 2, the Pakistan Foreign Office rejected his allegations on the cross-border movement of Taliban from Pakistan, terming it “unwarranted” and “misleading.”


It did not take long for Alexander to respond. Three days later, the former Canadian diplomat shared a picture of Pakistanis lined up at the Pak-Afghan border waiting to join their designated Taliban group.

As the war in Afghanistan continues, the silence of Canada’s government, and opposition leaders, on the verbal attack by Pakistan on a former Canadian ambassador was surprising.

Chris Alexander is the only Canadian politician who can see the warning signs on the walls of Afghanistan.

[chetak]

#BREAKING: Consul General of Pakistan Toronto Abdul Hameed has written to Head of Conservative Party of Canada & leader of opposition @erinotoole to take appropriate action against Chris Alexander @calxandr for exposing Pakistan’s terror links on social media.

Rawalpindi nervous?

via@AdityaRajKaul·11 Aug

[Lohit]

A historical analysis of the Afghan state's role in the Indian sub-continent and its extrapolation to potential geo-pol implications

Afghanistan and the subcontinent: an inseparable history of conflict

The region and peoples that live in the current state of Afghanistan have been playing a very unique role in the Indian subcontinent for almost 1000 years.

Afghans live in a unique country. Its climate is extremely inhospitable with majority of the land experiencing either hot or cold desert conditions. Agriculture and industry has therefore been very hard to pursue given these conditions. However sitting at the "center of Asia" - and tempered by the harsh conditions, the warlike people of the country have often "struck out" throughout their history and have taken up a predatory role - bandits looting caravans, tribes breaking out of their desolate mountains to raid cities and in fact, for long tracts of their history - conquerors and rulers of surrounding lands. If I was to use an analogy, the wolf comes to mind.

A good source to get a bird's eye view of their domination as conquerors can be had by eyeballing this page - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_w ... fghanistan

If I were to chronologically look at tracts of Afghan history of the past 1000 years, I see it as -

1000-1215 AD: Ghurids. Orignally Buddhists, post conversion to Islam and consolidating the Afghans they ruled over a massive kingdom covering modern day Pakistan and most of North and Eastern India.

1290-1325 AD: Khalji. Post a period of decline and confusion post Ghurids and domination by Iranian Khwarezmids, Afghan Khaljis came into thier own and ruled over modern day Pakistan and large tracts of North, West and Southern India.

1325-1525 AD: this was a period where Afghanistan was chewed up a lot by the Mongols and mostly kept within hemmed within the Timurid empire.

1525-1738: Mughals. Afghanistan was splintered into 3 parts the western part being ruled by Iranian Safavids (abutting the current Hazara provinces), Northern by the Mongol Buryat Khanates and Eastern by the Mughals. Afghans did very well under the Mughals - Babur more or less considered Kabul as his home and this sentiment remained for all following emperors. Afghan soldiers and administrators were key in ruling the subcontinent for the entirety of the rule and Kabul served as the royal mint and armory. Even Afghan adventurers such as Dost Mohammed, came down and formed kingdoms like Bhopal. Bengal Afghans, Rohillas - all shapes and sizes of Afghans had a great time.

1747-1823: Durranis. Post a hiatus caused by Iranian Nader Shah, Afghans consolidated and unified under Ahmed Shah Abdali and established rule over modern day Pakistan and parts of North India. Durrani rule was peak of predation over Punjab and also its raids deeper into norther India including the one where the reduced the Maratha army at Panipat.

1830-1947: Emirate of Afghanistan. With the coming in of the British rule in India, the Afghan direct rule abated but it was marked by three Anglo-Afghan wars - all wars where the first bullet was fired by the Afghans - and countless skirmishes where Afghanistan repeatedly disrupted territory in modern day Pakistan. Constant skirmishes and raids made the frontier known as a wild, restive region.

1947-73: Kingdom of Afghanistan. The Durand line caused several skirmishes with Pakistan including serious ones in '49, '55 and '60. The relations could be described as quite bad.

1973-96: Republic of Afghanistan. The soviet satellite which was devastated by the Afghan war saw conflict often spill to Pakistan, thousands of Pakistanis directly died fighting in the war. Had the republic survived they would have tried to dismember Pak.

1996-2001: Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Taliban ruled over the part of Afghanistan excluding controlled by Northern Alliance for all of five years. However in this period, Taliban either directly exported or gave refuge to mujahedin mercenaries who went on to fight in far flung areas from Chechnya, North Africa, South East Asia, Kashmir, Xinjiang and ultimately the conspiracy which hit New York. Meanwhile they caused major problems to India with militancy in Kashmir reaching historic highs. And while Pak was not attacked, large part of Pak were "Talibanized" with Taliban freely imposing their cultural will and power over Waziristan and FATA. PAk kept quiet and took it in the ar$e like the r@mdi it is.

2001-present: Transition government. Involved in numerous skirmishes with Pakistan. However the real challenge came via Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (seeds of which had been sown in the region during the Emirate period itself), which ran an insurgency which resulted in the deaths of thousands of Pakistani soldiers and tens of thousands of civilians.

Insight: We therefore have the history lesson of a thousand years to conclude that Afghans, inevitably prey on other nations - this trend is only reinforced when Afghans are consolidated and united under a single authority - as seems to be happening right now. At the very least, Punjab and Sindh have practically been Afghan tributaries for 1000 years. That is simply how Afghanistan and its people survive, else they tear themselves apart.

With this insight here is my attempt at reading geo-pol tea leaves in the near to medium term ('21-'26),

US, EU: Tactically the retreat is a big win as the coalition rids itself from the world's first trillion dollar war which was needlessly propping up a thoroughly incompetent and corrupt Afghan plant regime. The biggest beneficiaries of the massive Allied effort clobbered into place by Bush's hectoring, ironically, were countries who were fence sitters: India which saw Kashmir insurgency ebb, Uighurs in China, Chechens in Russia, assorted militant groups in the Middle East, East and West Africa - all saw their "safe space" being taken away giving the respective nations a chance at respite and shoring defenses. Yes, there were the ISILs of the worldbut with an Afghanistan under Taliban, the situation would only have been much worse. The sheriff of the world can therefore hang his boots and take some well deserved rest. However, fully expect AQ and other old ghosts of the past to re-emerge within the next couple of years causing violent terror attacks on the west to surge. Politically this may strengthen right-wing parties.

China: A major stink bomb just went off in China's backyard. I fully expect most BRI projects to stall and die out as the region is engulfed in a massive spiral of violence. While I do think any potential Uighur upsurge will be crushed down with a mailed fist, it will still cause China problems on its Eastern front where it wants to otherwise single mindedly focus on India. There already are reports of Uyghurs making up a few thousands in number of the Taliban. Overall the stakes in South China Sea and the Malacca straits as the only reliable trade route will increase and China's efforts to militarily secure this route will also build pressure on ASEAN, Taiwan and Japan - increasing instability and likelihood of war.

Russia and the Stans: A Taliban victory is terrible news for Putin and other assorted dictators who rule the Stans. I fully expect separatist movements from Tatarstan to Chechnya to reignite. Ditto for Stans as Uzbeks, Tajiks etc now make up 40% of the Taliban and they will be more than eager to spread their banner over the countries of their ethnicity. Realpolitik from the West will only encourage these efforts to shake up Putin's throne.

India: Like the ANA, India was also afforded 20 years to prep up its defenses. While one has clearly failed, it is to be seen how well India is able to deal with the surely coming upsurge in militancy. I fully expect a massive spike in fighter numbers, weapons and tech in the Kashmir insurgency. The more disturbing scenario is - in an increasingly communally divided India, such violence can also boil over to other parts of the country which have otherwise been quiet for two decades. The Taliban are essentially Deobandi and Barelvi - both Islamic movements with 10s of millions of followers in India as well, worst case scenario could see a massive influx of radicalized Indians who receive training and weapons in Afghanistan and wreck havoc in India, derailing the already stalled economic progress. As India becomes more exposed to such risks, it will feel increased pressure to toe the US line esp in SCS. Overall a grim outlook faces India.

Middle East, Africa and Turkey: This region may face a divergent outlook. For most nations - Islamic movements will now have a safe sanctuary to organize, train, plot and gain strength - to challenge the dictatorships that rule these countries. Given the often extremely reactionary and short term thinking that the leaderships of these countries indulge in, some might even fund and facilitate such activities. However, Qatar and Turkey - might actually gain geo-pol by using Afghanistan's strength in waging asymmetric war by acting as agents that trade in this commodity. Fully expect civil wars and violence to reach new heights. Also tensions between Turkey-Qatar and GCC bloc may rise.

Iran: Given that Afghanistan is 90-95% Sunni, the scenario looks bad for Iran as Sunni militants there will gain much strength. Like China however it is in a position to brutally clamp down on such movements. I do not however, see any silver lining for Iran as Taliban gain complete domination in Kabul. Iran may become more tightly coupled with the Turkish-Qatari axis to save its skin from the Taliban, in turn fueling tensions vs Saudi led GCC.

Pakistan: Taliban gaining absolute control over Afghanistan in my opinion has the worst portends for Pakistan. What the western media characterizes as Pakistan's "control" over Taliban is more often a case where Pakistan actually having scant choice in the matter. Going along with Taliban afforded Pakistan advantages such as mujahidin's to deploy against India. The "new" Taliban has supplanted Pakistan's role of an intermediary by dealing directly as it is doing with China or via Qatar or Turkey. The withdrawal is an economic catastrophe for Pakistan as a new refugee influx looks very likely. However most importantly, billions of dollars of money that flowed from the West and were ultimately earned by Pakistani businesses as direct or "gray" exports to a modernizing, NATO occupied Afg will now disappear. The West looking to find a whipping boy for its "failure" will look at "punishing" Pakistan economically via sanctions that will push its tottering economy towards total economic collapse. The West may also indulge in realpolitik to encourage movements such as TTP - potentially causing massive bloodshed and instability. The TTP insurgency last time was severe - even as TTP was being droned and NATO squatted over Afg safe havens, this new one will be magnitudes of order more severe - and with no aid/weapons/intel coming from the west to Pak. Pakistan with an ideologically conservative society and rampant poverty - these present naturally fertile grounds for such an insurgency to bloom. Instability will also mean drying up of "last hope" Chinese projects and connectivity that were hitherto progressing under the thankless shade of NATO in Afg. Most critically however - as the 10s of thousands of Pakistani mujahidins who fought for Taliban return to KPK and Waziristan, they will naturally want to put in place in Pakistan the same system as they put next door. Afg eyes will again look hungrily at Peshawar and Quetta. Meanwhile on the Eastern front, Pakistan has traditionally used mujahidins in a calibrated manner in Kashmir to ensure India also responds "proportionately" - never an all out war but enough to keep India bleeding and its own population scared and under control via the Indian bogeyman. The challenge now however, will be holding the massive surge of the unemployed (post Kabul fatah) and highly motivated mujahids back. Given India's new nationalistic "muscular response" policy - this only means that total war with India becomes more likely than ever. Worst case scenario for Pakistan, the sub-continent and the world is the old nightmare of mad mullahs gaining power through a revolution - and by extension - Pakistan's nukes. Finally: for anyone wondering how a Afg-Pak conflict might go down, considering the "professional and strong baki army", may read - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Anglo-Afghan_War - this may play out, without of course the Brits, Sikhs, Gurkhas and Dogras at play and may commence by summer next year once the loot in Kabul starts running out. Influx of Pashtuns into Pakistan will also fuel resentment in other provinces such as Punjab but especially Sindh and Baluchistan - adding steam to Sindhudesh and Independent Baluchistan.

Overall, given a few years, I expect the world to clamor back to the US and its allies for security and weapons sales. Also given the upheavals that are going to go down in the backyards of US' main strategic rivals - Russia and China - stand to loose in the SCO sphere and get hit economically, strategically. So notwithstanding any spectacles of Taliban unfurling its banners over Kabul on the 9/11 anniversary, US stands to gain overall mid term with heightened risk of terrorist attacks - any such attack will mean pressure on Pakistan to deliver on the undeliverable. The biggest losers look to be sub-continental nations, with Pakistan and India facing the grimmest scenarios.

Finally, let me also put up a long term view (completely ideal and hypothetical): the only solution to the Afghan issue is hinted at by the period under the Mughals where Afghanistan was split into three. Even now, a likely solution may involve a truly global military and diplomatic effort whereby the North goes to Stans, Western provinces to Iran and Eastern Pashtun provinces to Pakistan. The only catch however is that a super-large Pashtun population may again in turn alienate and cause resentment/separatism amongst Punjabi, Sindhi and Baloch populations of Pak.

Summary - US withdrawal is likely infact going to strengthen it geo-politically while causing massive problems for the world at large but especially countries of the Indian subcontinent - politically the old "clash of civilizations"/xenophobic/right-wing dispensations will gain ground. Looking at historical patterns, the solution to contain the restive, war-like people of Afghanistan is to split the country along religio-ethnic lines and assimilate the regions into larger, stabler nations.

Course of action for India:
Trust but verify any overture from taliban - as it will most likely be a taqiyya maneuver. Default mode for India should be highest level of alert. Replicate what we did for the Northern Alliance - the only good Taliban (radical jihadi, trained and fed by ISI) is a dead Talibani. Train Indian media to raise human rights abuses in Afg to build pressure on US and the West to align with India to build pressure on Taliban and Pak and ensure no "aid" reaches these countries in the guise of "stabilizing them" ie more geopolitical games. Globally we should be the most steadfast and staunchest enemies of the Taliban, there can never be any peace with them. Also, Kashmiris should be told that this is the final opportunity for them to reform or we clamp down as hard as possible and sanitize Kashmir like Xi did to Turkistan or Stalin to the Stans.

All this and self belief. Indians pre-Islam dominated Afghanistan and Pakistan for 3000+ years, we have the same DNA, we can surely do so again.

[nam]

Despite the rapid progress, the only air asset that seems to have fallen in to bunnies hand is one Mi24 and some Mi17 and other choppers. Not even 10 birds.

Unless ANA managed to move all the asset to Kabul and the entire ANA-AF is deployed for Kabul defense.

This tells us ANA was not really armed with worth while birds. They never had the air logistics or air power mass to create a difference.

US had created a well dressed version of Talibs with Humvees instead of motor bike.

[Cain Marko]

I fail to understand why are indians getting undies in twist over Afghanistan?

It's not "over Afghanistan" but over the possibility of increased terror activities in Kashmir and India, something that has happened in the past..90s.

[nam]

I was right. ANA-AF has only 19 propeller Super Tucano! US deliberately kept ANA devoid of airpower to pacify Pak.

Even the Soviets provided more powerful air assets to Afghanistan, when they were around.

As soon as US stopped air support ANA knew it was time's up. It folded.

[shyamd]

The sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan is about US ability to switch significant resources to focus on China. Biden admin sees Afghanistan as a waste of time and money.

Various influential people in Europe etc tried to change Biden’s mind… US admin wasn’t even willing to enter into discussion on the topic

[Manish_P]

...ANA-AF has only 19 propeller Super Tucano! US deliberately kept ANA devoid of airpower to pacify Pak...

Well said.

At the same time they supplied Pak AF with AAMs and helped with the upgrades of the F16s, trying to first pass it as to be used against the taliban in the WoT and then openly stating that it was for deterrence against India..

[Ambar]

Someone in MEA is smoking some potent hashish if what ABP is reporting is true.

https://news.abplive.com/videos/news/in ... es-1476170

The Taliban is moving towards capturing Kabul. Meanwhile, as per the information received from high sources of the Government, India can give shelter to people coming to India from Afghanistan. In view of the growing threat of Taliban, there has been a significant increase in visa requests to come to India from Afghanistan. In view of the growing threat of Taliban, there has been a significant increase in visa requests to come to India from Afghanistan.

We literally have millions of illegal bangladeshis, rohingyas even hundreds of thousands of pakis inside our country already. As much as it hurts to see ordinary afghanis once again live under the taliban, we cannot risk a further threat to security by inviting thousands of afghanis to live in India. Btw, there are already over 40,000 afghani refugees who live in the NCR region alone. Also many who came during the war years of 80s and 90s never went back.