Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status ... 30755?s=20 ---> After yesterday's press conference



https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status ... 96525?s=20 ---> Cutting the branches and not the roots



https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status ... 87840?s=20 ---> Interesting reality



https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status ... 95340?s=20 --->

[Haresh]

Afghanistan Is in Freefall. America Must Punish Pakistan For Its Role.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... ole-191725

[chetak]

UAE welcomes Former President of #Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani on Humanitarian grounds


UAE accepts ousted Afghan president Ashraf Ghani, family on 'humanitarian grounds'

HIGHLIGHTS

Ghani had fled Kabul along with his family on Sunday

In a Facebook post, Ghani said he left Afghanistan to 'avoid further bloodshed'

The UAE Foreign Ministry confirmed that Ghani is in the country but did not reveal his location

In a statement on Wednesday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it has accepted ousted Afghan president Ashraf Ghani and his family for "humanitarian considerations".

"The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation can confirm that the UAE has welcomed President Ashraf Ghani and his family into the country on humanitarian grounds," the statement said.

[Mort Walker]

Are there any credible estimates of how many Indian nationals are still stuck in Afghanistan? The WSJ was saying some 10,000-15,000 US nationals or residents are still stuck. Something like 1500/day are being evacuated. With Taliban blocking road access to the airport, this is going to get ugly in a few days.

[rsingh]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1427675952839020546

Reason why Americans left in haste.

[shyamd]

Are there any credible estimates of how many Indian nationals are still stuck in Afghanistan? The WSJ was saying some 10,000-15,000 US nationals or residents are still stuck. Something like 1500/day are being evacuated. With Taliban blocking road access to the airport, this is going to get ugly in a few days.

Not many left. Majority left in the weeks prior after GOI warning. Some afghan sikh/hindu community with indian passport still present.

[vijayk]

[vijayk]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/08/17/asia ... index.html
The Taliban knocked on her door 3 times. The fourth time, they killed her

[anupmisra]

And this is the “moderate” version of the Taliban that rampaged through Afghanistan last time. Where are the so called wokes and left wing liberals?

[chetak]

A short story in 2 sentences that explains why #Taliberal gang in #India loves @JustinTrudeau

The Govt of #France has evacuated the Gorkhas who guarded the French Embassy in Kabul.

The Govt of #Canada has abandoned the Gorkhas who guarded the Canadian Embassy in Kabul.

via@KanchanGupta·3h

[AshishA]

Do we know what kind of weapons were left behind by US? I am hearing that they even left behind black hawk helicopters? Aren't they supposed to be a important piece of hardware?

[chetak]

Do we know what kind of weapons were left behind by US? I am hearing that they even left behind black hawk helicopters? Aren't they supposed to be a important piece of hardware?

a lot of the afghan aircraft have already landed in one of the **stans, maybe tajikistan, not very sure of the country but sure that the aircraft have been flown out by afghan pilots.

The amerikis may have offered hefty rewards for such aircraft flown away to keep them from talibani hands

some others may now be in taliban hands.

[IndraD]

Revealation by Hukum saar on twitter https://twitter.com/hukum2082/status/14 ... 30304?s=20

1,2. A quick read on Taliban 2.0 and the fall of Kabul : 1.The change of regime was engineered by the US in full public gkare including promises of a transition and interim government 2.The ISI did not subscribe to the idea but asked the Talibs to play along regardless.
3.The old guard (Northern Alliance) Amarullah Saleh , Ata Muhammad Noor and Abdul Rashid Dostum were sidelined by Ghani on the directions of Zalmay Khalilzad

4.The fissures in the government were visible in the public posturing of the old guard which smelt a rat from the outset
5. As fighting erupted in Faryab and Herat, ANA and ANDSF fought back ferociously and managed to reverse initial losses

6. A message went went out from the Presidential Palace asking the ANA/ANDSF to stand down as a power sharing agreement was being worked out.
7. The Taliban true to their nature used this ceasefire to encircle ANA/ANDSF units and in some cases executed surrendered troops

8. There was total lack of cohesion at the command level and sustained infowar by the ISI ensured that troops deserted in large numbers
9.The Americans did not provide close air support (CAS) and delayed overhaul of key aviation assets which were critical to resupply ANA/ANDSF troops.
9. The decisions taken in Qatar and Washington were not communicated to CENTCOM in full.This led to a situation where the US Troops in Afghanistan did not get enough time to deploy demolition teams to destroy sensitive war fighting equipment
10. This was deliberate done because any such step would have led to widespread panic amidst the Afghan Forces who were battling the Taliban across a widely spread put front

11. The Taliban did not trust the Americans from the outset and made a lightening dash to Kabul
12. This was a classic "Hug" your opponent move which ensured that it had a good chunk of Foreign citizens and troops encircled in Kabul.A great bargaining chip to get the Americans to stop bombing their positions in the North and the West
13. This truly surprised the Americans as well a Ghani who was looking at a power sharing agreement with the Taliban alongwith Abdullah Abdullah and chief negotiator Hamid Karzai
14. Ghani was tipped off by his well wishers and made a quick exit allegedly with a lot of money (Critical in buying his Asylum)
15. Saleh had a Plan B in place by end of June 2021.However the Taliban put paid to his plans by taking Herat , Mazar-i-Sharif and Kunduz in quick succession.This cutoff all traditional Northern Alliance gateways
16. His retreat to Panjshir has landed him in a precarious situation as he doesn't have strategic depth to fall back. It is a position which he may have to abandon if he does not manage quick territorial wins to enable a land bridge to Tajikistan
17. ANA/ANDSF troops loyal to him have been unable to make way to Panjshir in the numbers he would have liked.His supply lines are non-existent and his allies look on helpless as supplying him by air is a very risky affair (not impossible)
18. The ISI has coached the Taliban well in projecting a more humane face.Ironically WAPO and NYT seem to be lapping up and are displaying new found love for Taliban 2.0

19. The Chinese will keep their cards close to their chest until the last American Soldier leaves Afghanistan.They will pay the ISI a bomb to get their hands on sophisticated American hardware
20. Ironically this isn't the first time that the Americans have left behind military hardware.The value of equipment left behind during the fall of Saigon was roughly estimated to be $1Billion in 1975

[chetak]

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9FuuZmVoAc ... medium[img]

sharpening their pencils and imagining the op-eds that they are going to be writing

By this time next week, there will be op-eds across the Western world, on how fascist India has refused to accept 20 million Afghan refugees. (twitter)

[chetak]

twitter

All western embassies leaving Afghans who worked for them high and dry, despite knowing that those Afghans are at most risk in a Taliban regime….

Just waiting for these western democracies (or think tanks based there to be exact) to teach India humanity and kindness etc

@ChrChristensen·Aug 17
Swedish staff left the embassy as their Afghan colleagues worked.

Then, they refused to answer calls from the Afghan staff and even blocked their official email accounts.

Left the country.

@jahootsen · Aug 17
From Dutch newspaper @NRC: When Afghan employees of the Dutch embassy in Kabul arrived at the office on Sunday, they were flabbergasted to find that the Dutch had all left without telling them anything.

They just left.

[shyamd]

Are there any credible estimates of how many Indian nationals are still stuck in Afghanistan? The WSJ was saying some 10,000-15,000 US nationals or residents are still stuck. Something like 1500/day are being evacuated. With Taliban blocking road access to the airport, this is going to get ugly in a few days.

Not many left. Majority left in the weeks prior after GOI warning. Some afghan sikh/hindu community with indian passport still present.

400 nationals left despite warning.

Looks like it was US who brokered the deal with Taleban to escort diplomats out.

[Ambar]

Not many left. Majority left in the weeks prior after GOI warning. Some afghan sikh/hindu community with indian passport still present.

400 nationals left despite warning.

Looks like it was US who brokered the deal with Taleban to escort diplomats out.

Iran , Qatar and the US . EAM thanked them on Twitter and called it a complicated mission.

[ldev]

A report dated November 30, 2009 by the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Does a post mortem on the circumstances on how bin laden was allowed to escape Tora Bora in December 2001. Interesting reading on how US special forces operated and what they wanted to do to get bin laden and how they were overruled by their superiors.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CPR ... T53709.htm

And speculation by David Frum, one of George W Bush's speechwriters that had bin laden been killed in December 2001, that the US would have left Afghanistan immediately since the primary culprit of 9/11 was killed. This is an article dated August 15, 2021

The one thing that could have changed the war in Afghanistan

[ldev]

400 nationals left despite warning.

Looks like it was US who brokered the deal with Taleban to escort diplomats out.

Iran , Qatar and the US . EAM thanked them on Twitter and called it a complicated mission.

I would say, Iran was thanked for allowing overflights into Afghanistan, Qatar was thanked because they probably used their Taliban connections to instruct the Taliban to provide the escort to the Indian embassy staff from the embassy to the airport. Remember that the Taliban political headquarters for the last 10-15 years is Doha. And the US was thanked for providing expeditious security and landing coordination at the airport, ahead of many other countries that were trying to also get their aircraft in. And Tajkistan was or should have been thanked for allowing the IAF to park it's plane in Ayni overnight while waiting for the embassy convoy to get to the airport.

[ramana]

UAE welcomes Former President of #Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani on Humanitarian grounds


UAE accepts ousted Afghan president Ashraf Ghani, family on 'humanitarian grounds'

HIGHLIGHTS

Ghani had fled Kabul along with his family on Sunday

In a Facebook post, Ghani said he left Afghanistan to 'avoid further bloodshed'

The UAE Foreign Ministry confirmed that Ghani is in the country but did not reveal his location

In a statement on Wednesday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it has accepted ousted Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his family for "humanitarian considerations".

"The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation can confirm that the UAE has welcomed President Ashraf Ghani and his family into the country on humanitarian grounds," the statement said.

Note the Qatar and UAE rivalry is playing out in Afghanistan.
Ghani seeks asylum in UAE while Qatar hosts Taliban meetings in Doha.

[Rishirishi]

Another article in National Interest by friend of India, Michael Rubin.

As always please click on the link so that more traffic is driven to the article... it will benefit Rubin if we do so. And please share widely.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/af ... est-191875

A great article everyone should read

Sum it up and implications.

1) Taliban do not have popular support. Neighbors will start supporting other ethnic groups militias (Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) They are all very sceptical of the Taleban. Only Pakistan will support Taleban.

2 Pakistan's importance to USA will diminish, as Pakistan do not have much to offer any more.

3) All the countries around AF will put pressure on Pakistan.

4) Pakistan will have to please China in one way or the other. Chinese are very calculative and will fast understand the costs are high for little return.

5) Last but not least, refugees and more extremism will create problems for Pakistan.

As usual the Pakistani establishment (military) win a battle but gain nothing but more problems. The average Pakistani pays the price.

[chetak]

the taliban is moving quickly...

they've already appointed their spokesperson in India

[chetak]

Trudeau is asked about the Gurkhas who were guarding Canada’s embassy who were left behind when staff were flown out.
He says the Gurkhas are Nepalese and Indian citizens so they don’t qualify for special immigration but they are working to have them air lifted. #cdnpoli

via@MariekeWalsh · 17 Aug

[vera_k]

The Return of ‘America Held Hostage’

The Islamist agenda essentially controls the Biden administration while so many Americans are stuck in Afghanistan.

[yensoy]

Trudeau is asked about the Gurkhas who were guarding Canada’s embassy who were left behind when staff were flown out.
He says the Gurkhas are Nepalese and Indian citizens so they don’t qualify for special immigration but they are working to have them air lifted. #cdnpoli

via@MariekeWalsh · 17 Aug

Nonsense double talk from slick Trudeau. Who ever asked about them to be immigrated into Canada? Get them out first and send them back home from wherever the plane was headed (usually to some place in the gulf).

[Roop]

Only Pakistan will support Taleban.

Not only Pakistan. At minimum, Qatar and China will also support. Maybe Russia will too.

[Roop]

Nonsense double talk from slick Trudeau. Who ever asked about them to be immigrated into Canada? Get them out first and send them back home from wherever the plane was headed (usually to some place in the gulf).

If these people had been Muslims instead of Gurkhas, he would have rushed over to Kabul to personally welcome them to Canada.

[sanjaykumar]

You will soon learn of an airlift of Sikhs from Kabul to Canada.

They will be taught English words. Taxi and Liberal for example.

[ldev]

Only Pakistan will support Taleban.

Not only Pakistan. At minimum, Qatar and China will also support. Maybe Russia will too.

Russia and China among non Muslim countries and the Muslim Brotherhood bloc of Qatar and Turkey plus Pakistan. And Iran. None of these ambassadors left Kabul and their embassies are operating normally. With the schism in the Sunni world, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt will eventually recognize Afghanistan but relations will be cool. Russia has said that it's recognition will depend on Taliban behavior but for all practical purposes it has defacto recognized the Taliban. Russia hosted a Taliban delegation for talks and have not withdrawn their ambassador which is tantamount to recognition.

[shyamd]

https://t.co/cuymxjHdAG

Ahmad Masoud appeals to west for weapons and supplies to launch resistance against taleban - see article he has penned in Washington post

I think international powers will be nervous at this point as they want to see if taleban will be inclusive as promised

[ldev]

https://t.co/cuymxjHdAG

Ahmad Masoud appeals to west for weapons and supplies to launch resistance against taleban - see article he has penned in Washington post

I think international powers will be nervous at this point as they want to see if taleban will be inclusive as promised

Qatar and Turkey will try and moderate the Taliban to increase the number of acceptable MB countries. Obviously Turkey feels that they have an inside track on the Taliban via Qatar and hence their play to manage Kabul airport after the US withdrawal. But that plan has cratered with the suddenness of the ANG collapse. And the Taliban have learnt some media management thanks again to Qatari tutelage and AlJazeera!! But the Taliban will not deviate from the very fundamental practices of Wahabi Islam. Just read the many Twitter threads, women have almost disappeared from public view.

Most likely, Pakistan will likely have far less sway over the Taliban than they would like. Pakistan's satisfaction will stem entirely from the fact that India is no longer there.

The US has frozen about $10 billion of the reserves of the Afghan Central Bank....virtually all the money they have. It will be interesting if the Taliban think of keeping the approximately 10,000 US citizens there as hostages!! It will like the Iran hostage crisis on steroids.

[vera_k]

The Taliban will get everything they want. By force using the 15,000 hostages. Or by goodwill for releasing the hostages somewhat smoothly.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/business/report/ ... 210818.htm
Taliban stop exports, imports from India
By Ashoke Raj, August 18, 2021
The Taliban have stopped all imports and exports with India after entering Kabul and taking over the country on Sunday.
Ajay Sahai, Director General (DG) of Federation of Indian Export Organisation (FIEO) told ANI that currently, the Taliban has stopped the movement of cargo through the transit routes of Pakistan, thereby stopping imports from the country. "We keep a close watch on developments in Afghanistan. Imports from there come through the transit route of Pakistan. "As of now, the Taliban has stopped the movement of cargo to Pakistan, so virtually imports have stopped," FIEO DG told ANI.
India has long-standing relations with Afghanistan, especially in trade. India has a large investment in Afghanistan.
"In fact, we are one of the largest partners of Afghanistan and our exports to Afghanistan are worth around $835 million for 2021.
"We imported goods worth around USD 510 Million. But besides the trade, we have a sizeable investment in Afghanistan.
"We have invested around USD 3 billion in Afghanistan and there are 400-odd projects in Afghanistan some of which are currently going on," Sahai said.
"...Some of the goods are exported from international north-south transport corridor route which is fine now. "Some of the goods go through Dubai route also which is working," he added. Sahai said India has healthy relations with Afghanistan in trade. Currently, Indian export profile includes sugar, pharmaceuticals, apparel, tea, coffee, spices and transmission towers. "Imports are related and largely dependent on dry fruits. We also import a little gum and onions from them," FIEO DG said.
.....
Gautam

[rsingh]

Neither EU, nor US has recognized atalibans as yet. They have 7000 troops on ground. Is it possible that once all civilians have lift Kabul 7000 troops start going out of Airport and taking Talibani one by one in street fight to take Kabul while air strikes take care of any reinforcement. It is quite possible.

[Deans]

https://www.rediff.com/business/report/ ... 210818.htm
Taliban stop exports, imports from India
By Ashoke Raj, August 18, 2021

Most of these exports don't reach Afghanistan. They are consigned to Afghanistan but get smuggled to high tariff countries like Iran and Pak. This will continue. The importer just bribes border guard A & C instead of A & B. These exports will continue.
Our import of dry fruit can be replaced almost immediately by sourcing from Iran. The exporters are all based in Dubai anyway.

[Manish_P]

I hope that was sarcasm.. RSingh ji

Else it seems like borderline fantasy

That is not how the US (and NATO) have fought wars. They are very particular in their fore preparations to ensure a significant overmatch capability (materials, equipment, secure logistical lines) over their opponents.

Nor for that matter any other proper 1st tier professional military force, not unless they are making a desperate last stand to defend against an invasion in their own home land.

[nits]

Do we know what kind of weapons were left behind by US? I am hearing that they even left behind black hawk helicopters? Aren't they supposed to be a important piece of hardware?

a lot of the afghan aircraft have already landed in one of the **stans, maybe tajikistan, not very sure of the country but sure that the aircraft have been flown out by afghan pilots.

The amerikis may have offered hefty rewards for such aircraft flown away to keep them from talibani hands

some others may now be in taliban hands.

And soon Pak may have a dekho over it and pass required info in whatever form possible and usable to chin or worst case buy some of them ( not just aircrafts) from Taliban

[RajSingh]

Good source for some current news from the account of a verified Afghan Commando

https://twitter.com/Sarfaraz1201

[williams]

Some additional info on what really happened. Khan point of view.

[rsingh]

I hope that was sarcasm.. RSingh ji

Else it seems like borderline fantasy

That is not how the US (and NATO) have fought wars. They are very particular in their fore preparations to ensure a significant overmatch capability (materials, equipment, secure logistical lines) over their opponents.

Nor for that matter any other proper 1st tier professional military force, not unless they are making a desperate last stand to defend against an invasion in their own home land.

You are right. I am wondering how come all knowing Pentagon left state of art helicopters to barbarians.