Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

[ldev]

Interesting article. Interview with the ex-CIA counter terrorism chief in South and South-West Asia.

India has good reason to worry over Taliban's rise: Ex-CIA official

As someone who oversaw operations in Afghanistan as the CIA's chief for counterterrorism in South and Southwest Asia during 2016-18, Douglas London had a ringside view of key developments and events that culminated with the fall of Kabul to the Taliban on August 15.

London, who was involved in assessments of Afghanistan prepared for former US president Donald Trump and consulted as a volunteer with Joe Biden’s counterterrorism working group during the campaign for the last presidential election, says India has good reason to worry about the rise of the Taliban, given Pakistan’s backing for the group and the complicated security scenario in the region.

The CIA veteran, who retired in 2019 after 34 years of service, argues that what happened in Afghanistan was worse than an intelligence failure, and outlines the Haqqani Network’s long-standing ties with the Pakistani military. London, who is publishing a memoir of his time at the CIA this month, “The Recruiter: Spying and the lost art of American intelligence”, talks about how the US-Taliban peace deal of 2020 was the “worst agreement” the US has ever negotiated.

Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanekzai has been out of the country for 20 years. He was part of the Taliban five who were traded for [kidnapped US soldier Bowe] Bergdahl. Moreover, Stanekzai was under house arrest by the Taliban before 9/11 and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar was left to rot in prison for eight years. If the Taliban really wanted Baradar out, I guarantee you they could have gotten him out. They made no such effort because he was long out of favour with the Taliban's senior leaders then living in Pakistan.

So, all these people that are talking about Taliban 2.0, a kinder, gentler Taliban are under the lights of cameras, whereas we don't know what’s going on where we have no visibility, nor what's in the minds of the Taliban's actual decision-makers.

[chetak]

one of the valleys in panjshir

[Santosh]

What is all the more galling is that pos like tsp punches so much above its weight while a country like India that has 10x the heft won't attempt anything of the sort.

India really needs to learn how to fight through a proxy. China fights India through Papistan, Papistan fights India through multiple flavors of Islamic terrorists, Papistan fights Afg through Taliban. For a while India had ltte in SL (leave aside for now the utility or liability of ltte for India) and that got decimated under MMS watch. NO proxy worth mentioning in Nepal, Papistan or AFG.

[NRao]

Resistance forces have recaptured all areas from Taliban last night. Taliban flag removed from all places where it was hoisted yesterday. Close air support provided by Afghan airforce (refer to earlier tweet)

[CalvinH]

This is too late to ask this but I would like to understand this puzzle -

If Amerikis just wanted to leave at any cost,
Amerikis had 4 years to recruit and train ANA and make a solid plan with allies for their safe return - why they had to negotiate with Taliban in 1st place?

Something is very very fishy. But why no ally of USA or strategic partner was questioning this negotiation move of USA?

As it turns out all that matters was return of USA forces and closure of Afghan chapter. Concern for the afghan people was absolute pretense.
Then why all this tamasha of peace negotiations?

Why India should let go of USA without knowing the truth? Why should India accept this back-stabbing from USA - because it appears they are more interested in empowering Pakistan.

Americans have been trying to build and train ANA for 16 years now. Not 4 years. ANA was ramped up to a good numbers and equipment by 2011 when NATO mission started to wind down. Obama administration added significant number of new trainers after that when ANA was found lacking.

In summary US has realized that they cant rely on ANA for their departure. So they started to negotiate with Taliban. They had no other option. Everyone knew it including Taliban.

[CalvinH]

No analysis on why ISI chief visit was so publicized and not kept hush hush? What signals does Pakis want to give with this? Were they forced to do this openly to prove a point?

[Aditya_V]

Look the Americans deliberately made the ANA incompetent- if they had used the Hazaras and Northern Alliance Pakistan goose would have ben cooked, but clearly that was not in the UK which seems to tied in the hip with Pakjabistan for some reason.

So a series of behind the scenes activities where the Taliban were made to win for the Pakis sake( everyone knows its Pakis and Not Afgans who now have power in Afganistan).

Some how wondering whether there is deeper game afoot which could be

1) Pakis will try some misadventure with us along with Chinese at the same time soon, LOC, LAC, militant attacks with BIF riots?

2) Ergodan has been has made some anti-Iran speeches in the last 1 year, Azerbhaijan-Turkey-Pakis-Qatar are really close, Iran also has Azeri populated areas. Is this some plan to attack Iran from 3 sides as the Afgan Iran border terrain is much better that the Baluchistan-Iran Border. That way Pakis and Turkey can get hold of Iran rich Natural resources

3) Destabilize Russia by attacking through the soft underbelly of Tajiskistan, Uzbekistan and try to get access to Central Asian republic resources, Pakis tried this with Western support before 9/11.

I think it will be combination all 3, Pakis will take the risk- I think we must work in the back channels and work with Russians -Tajiks and hopefully Iranians if they have brains have smelled the coffee. If they play foolish games with the Chinese, the Iranians will be overun.

But clearly there is something bigger at play here. It was never in Afgan interest to have Taliban rule so ANA giving up does not make sense.

[KLNMurthy]

Interesting article. Interview with the ex-CIA counter terrorism chief in South and South-West Asia.

India has good reason to worry over Taliban's rise: Ex-CIA official

I think people need to start talking. I think the Pakistani generals need to realise that time is not on their side, [because of] having cultivated a lot of these forces that can consume them as well. I'm just worried the timing is not right because the Indian government has not extended a hand to the Muslim community inside of India, and is therefore probably not in a real great position to start looking at compromise with the Pakistanis or the Chinese.

We like to say that Indian Muslims are Indians first, except for a few bad apples.

That doesn’t seem to be the CIA’s view. Here he seems to be basically saying that Indian Muslims are Pakistani proxies.

Am I reading it correctly?

[SinghS]

The simple facts are :
Pakistan wants Taliban in Afghanistan.
Afghanis are fragmented along tribal lines yet united by Islam...so if there is no infighting; it is a barbarian society
America doesn't want to do anything anywhere else and wants to save it energy and national resources. Its a war tired nation. It would look for other NATO members to rally behind it for future actions. Unilateral actions are big no-no in near future.
Europe is weak.
Turkey and Pakistan are rubble rouser.
Iran is surrounded by enemies, yet is a deeply Islamic state and not trustworthy.
China has influence in Iran, Turkey, Pakistan and won't like a fight among them. This would lead to loosening of control over Islamists and would create problem for her too.
China would also like a relative period of peace and expansion in Islamic and African nations for it growth, as it has border issues with most of developing nations.
China's control on Islamic nations are going to be reduced in future as they form a block.

Do your math. In my opinion nothing is concrete as it is a turning point in history with no strong pole. We would need a strong nationalistic government, for next 20 years till some equilibrium is reached in world order.

My 2 Cents.

[Pratyush]

The celebration amongst the Indian Muslim's of the Taliban take over should open a lot of eyes.

Add to it the self induced self segregation from the main stream in India. I feel that his views are justified to some extent.

[Ambar]

No analysis on why ISI chief visit was so publicized and not kept hush hush? What signals does Pakis want to give with this? Were they forced to do this openly to prove a point?

What exactly do they have to fear ? Despite their well known perfidy including allowing OBL to live literally next door to their military HQ they've faced no punishments or reprisals of any kind. No matter how we spin it its true that the Pakis-Turkey-Qatar-China-Russia bloc have come out of the Afghan war with a upper hand and all that India, US and EU gained are a bunch of refugees. ISI chief is in Kabul because pindi doesn't want the taliban to forget who their daddy is. He is probably also there to oversee the panjshir operations and negotiate better terms for the haqqanis.

[Aditya_V]

Why such a free pass to US and UK, they would have supported the rightful self determination of Baluchistan in that case. West has been very sympathetic to Taliban and Pakis. Only 9/11 act partially against the Taliban while even allowing the bulk of the leadership to escape from Kunduz in Oct 2001.

In fact Russians are also helpless after their 80' a invasion of Afganistan came a cropper.

[Ambar]

@BHL 5 Sep

Just received from #PanjshirValley credible informations about: #Pakistan commandos fighting #Massoud’s people; one commander of #SSG on the ground; cobra helicopters in air; few #Pakistani ID left on battlefield; and, in #Kabul, maybe coordinating, Lt Gen Faiz Hamid from #ISI .

via @BHL 5 Sep

Don;t fall for those tweets. While the news of paki regulars fighting alongside the taliban is true, all these tweets about paki F16s, downed PAF choppers, slain SSG commandos etc. are being tweeted by paki handles to troll Indians. Someone photoshopped an old pic of a dead soldier with face of paki tv host amir liaquat and that too was being spread/shared as "real pictures" from Panjshir ! The worst ofcourse was our clown central tv channels falling for clips from video games, a clip of a downed F16 in Arizona from 2015 etc. as proof of PAF's involvement in Afghanistan !

[Pratyush]

TSP providing air cover for Taliban in Panjshir is not really surprising. Hell they were enforcing a no fly zone with Afghanistan border during the last phase of the fight and warning the Afghan airforce not to fly.

This was in July. Just after the US left Bagram.

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/saadmohseni/status/ ... 4519251970

Saad Mohseni
@saadmohseni
Anti Pakistan protests in Kabul, happening right now

https://twitter.com/natiqmalikzada/stat ... 4490989569
Natiq Malikzada
@natiqmalikzada
Today, curse of the Taliban and Pakistan are heard from all over Kabul.
In dozens points in Kabul, separate groups, mostly young men and women, have begun protesting. They are chanting "Death to Taliban" "Death to Pakistan"

Down pointing backhand indexThis one is from Dahan e Bagh area, Kabul.

https://twitter.com/sangpuchangsan/stat ... 9763602433

Sangpu Changsan
@sangpuchangsan
Afghan protesters gathered in front of Pakistan Embassy in Iran, chanting "Death to Pakistan"

#FreeAfghanistan #SanctionPakistan #Iran #PanjshirValley #TalibanTakeover #Afghanistan

[shyamd]

Just wanted to share a timeline/thread

I think consensus within current TSPA establishment is they regret recognising the previous Taleban govt without support of international powers - bad PR and guilt by association. Especially that Taleban was not inclusive last time - this created its own instability. This time TSPA want there to be inclusive govt (with TSPA at the top to veto anything big .... like GOI involvement)

TSPA has outlined 2 core national interest:
1. Vision for future of Afghanistan (particularly the Durand Line border)
2. Role of India in that region

Previous Afghan govts failed on both counts. Right from the start Afghan govt told then senior TSPA officers that they don't recognise durand line.
Also the US was setting up ANDF ORBAT to focus on Pakistan(!).
Taleban takeover of Afghanistan was a necessity in their eyes. But there is no guarantee that they can control Taleban indefinitely.... Question is what is Taleban position on points 1 and 2 above.

TSPA expectation is that instability in places like FATA, Baluchistan and other places will reduce once Taleb take over is complete

Assessment of Security Situation post Kabul takeover


TSPA priority
- TSPA support Taleban priority firstly will be to consolidate, secure and prevent any forces that can launch a counter coup. Apparently Kabul is not completely secure and the Taleban are still continuing operations.
- Negotiations are taking place between Taleban and forces that are capable of resisting thus the general amnesty for former Afghan govt officials (to complete the coup which means the Taleban/TSPA are still worried about resistance forces)
- The other issues is that TSPA know that there are a lot of groups that are not under direct C2 of TSPA - these will need to be dealt with as well eventually

- Consensus for major powers is that as long as Taleban is truly 'inclusive' then pressure will be taken off Taleban - I believe funds of the Afghan govt have been frozen or about to be frozen
- ISI backed troops such as LeT and JeM are playing a significant role. They have two roles - keep control of Taleban gangs going lose/off the chain and prevent forces that can launch a counter coup.

GOI moves
- First priority is securing all Indian nationals, diplomats and other interests of the Sikh/Hindu community. Majority of the work was completed in 48 hours from the green light given by GOI leaders.
- The next will be to re-establish connections with key players (some of whom are in Delhi) and others in central asian states.
- GOI have a choice. Either support those ready to launch a counter coup and make the point that Taleban hold is weak/vulnerable or move to a long term strategy which is to be recon/surveillance/intel focused.

With only around 9% of indian population vaccinated GOI's primary focus is to get this fixed.

Expectation is that we'll be back to stadium murders soon.
Apparently GOI - Taleban meeting was reported in arab press (the one that MEA denied that took place). Taleban said they welcome Indian investments in infra & education as these are for the benefit of all afghans. They also said the Taliban pledged to remain neutral in the India-Pakistan conflict, especially with regard to Kashmir, and affirmed that it has its own future policy on Pakistan.

They have also pledged not to interfere in Uyghur issues in china.

Be careful....maybe ISI want us to think that. From speaking to people I'm getting the sense all dirty business (terror training) will be shipped of to Afghanistan from places like Mansehra and PoK. TSP will follow the international community publicly...i.e. if the powers recognise, they will recognise... if they don't then TSP won't.

The impact will be TSPA will come out of FATF and look clean... they'll say all terror planning/training is happening from "ungoverned places".

Iran has close ties with many in Talebs but they aren't trusted.

UAE has approached Turkey for alliance on Afghan file.

Latest summary is:
- TSPA has sent feelers to London and DC on who may recognise the taleban govt. TSPA want to resolve Afg govt issue quickly because there is concern about refugee inflows
- KSA via former intel director Turki al Faisal is re-establishing contacts with Taleban. This is brokered via ISI. Meetings have been held with Mullah Yaqoob (Mullah omar's son) and other seniors. KSA view is better to have a taleb govt who will be more sympathetic vs Iran.
- I'm reminded that Taleban is a coalition of groups that range from anti TSPA, drug gangs, extremists, nationalists, Pro-Pakhtun ethnic groups, pro -TSP backed terror groups like Haqqani Network, former Afg govt officials... PLA is backing one faction, Iran another - particularly those in border districts with Iran... Russia also involved...(rumour has it ISKP was getting $$ from Russians...)... Sorting out and agreeing powersharing between these groups is proving a little difficult. Each person has earned their seat on table... and each country is having their rep on the table via shura council (incl. Iran)..
- Taleban are being asked to repay debts to these nation states like Russia, Iran, TSP, China who supported them over the years.
- UAE cooperating with Turkey/Qatar alliance on Afghanistan...but it's early days.
- Threat of counter coup has largely reduced..

Qatar has been shocked by how different the 'on ground' situation is compared to the promises made in Doha. Qatar, US and others in the region were promised a 'transitional' govt and preparations were seriously underway (hence why the ANA was asked to go slow or withdraw and their C2 had collapsed). The talib mil commanders on the ground ignored all of this and carried on incl. entering Kabul despite all promises by the Talib political leaders not to do so.

It is the military leaders who have the greatest influence over the situation.
Abdul Qayum Zakir (now the defence minister of the Taleb govt. He is the leader of Badri 313 ), Mullah Yaqoob (Mullah Omar's son and leader of the military movement) and Haqqani Network (ISI backed) are the key players in control of the situation. Apparently the military leaders are not cooperating with the political members like Stanekzai and others.

----------------------------
GOI stating that once a permanent govt is formed towards year end, they will talk to that Talib govt..

Apparently HQN faction is dominating Kabul (Jalalabad - Kabul axis). Mullah Yaqoob has Kandahar area. Not sure if its psyops but they are saying Yaqoob and Haqqani are not cooperating wrt political settlement. Haqqani wants inclusivity with previous govt but Yaqoob not interested.

UK Foreign Min met TSP/A to discuss Afg. UK and US answer is that what was promised in Doha was not delivered and therefore we are far away from recognizing Taleban Govt.

Not sure if it’s true but ISI chief in Kabul today probably to attempt to sort things out

Latest I’m hearing is that UK is speaking to Tajik Govt to see if they can pressure Ahmad Massoud to join a future Govt in Afghanistan. (Which means TSP is promising west that Doha agreement will be implemented)…

Latest SitRep

- GOI is implementing a strategy & plan on Afghanistan that was created earlier this year. Plan was in process of being updated during collapse.
- GOI will not recognise the Taleb govt but will maintain links via Doha and Moscow.
- Intel assessment is that TSPA will turn up temperature in LoC and J&K very soon... There is a gradual redeployment of terror groups towards LoC (with Afghans being spotted).
- Meet held between PM, Def min, Home min yesterday. Number of options have been proposed by the Nat Sec (Defence is an element of Nat Sec) team with dealing with Afghan situation... Range of issues are being managed including how GOI will secure it's interest (i.e. make sure Afghan soil is not used for terrorism which is the top priority).
- My view: Armed forces (IA/IAF) will be making preparations for deployment to somewhere in central asia in coalition with regional powers (if green light provided). I suspect Brigade level operation with some air cover. Primary task will be border security.

- Not discussed but Tajikistan has made their intent clear - they will defend the interests of the Tajik population in Afghanistan. In August, Tajikistan mobilised 100k troops and called up 100k reserves. Russia is supporting these moves and have also joined in drills and are conducting border patrols/exercises. Volunteers have joined up with the National Resistance in Panjshir (with some state sanction)

Also hearing that ANA aircraft from Tajikistan were used to attack Talib positions today in the main road/valley into Panjshir... Sub-valleys are still being held by NRF.

- Russia also calling for inclusive govt similar to UK/US. Ultimately they want someone in charge of Afghanistan and to make sure there is no terror impacting the Central Asian states
- NSA level meeting between India - Russia to be held today to discuss Afghanistan
- Russia will be conducting military drills in all states sharing border with Afghanistan. India may be joining.

Other side matters:
- There is growing feeling in some quarters in Delhi that British intel and ISI were in cahoots on trying to get DC to recognise Taleban..

[nam]

Only Pak can celebrate taking over a failed state. The jokers have been looking for every possible avenue to appear "superior" over us. Doesn't even register to them they are on IMF dole and taking over another failed state.

Given Afghanistan is now a pariah state, awash with weapons.. everyone over there is now "on-hire". If GoI loosen it's purse strings, we can create lot of trouble across the Durand line...and keep PA busy.

[chanakyaa]

...
Intel assessment is that TSPA will turn up temperature in LoC and J&K very soon... There is a gradual redeployment of terror groups towards LoC (with Afghans being spotted).
...

With UP elections just around the corner and General 2 years out..Bakis will not miss the opportunity to put Modi govt. in embarrassing position from a nat. sec. perspective. It is now or never for them. Looks like AFG air space is being avoided by commercial/civil aviation, which is good. Evil Means used by bakis and other proxies — hijacking (ic 814), high profile hostage, taking down civilian aircraft (e.g one over Ukraine) are few things, I’m sure govt. paying close attention to from a security perspective. Anything repeating should lead to complete dismemberment of piggystan.

[chetak]

@BHL 5 Sep
via @BHL 5 Sep

Don;t fall for those tweets. While the news of paki regulars fighting alongside the taliban is true, all these tweets about paki F16s, downed PAF choppers, slain SSG commandos etc. are being tweeted by paki handles to troll Indians. Someone photoshopped an old pic of a dead soldier with face of paki tv host amir liaquat and that too was being spread/shared as "real pictures" from Panjshir ! The worst ofcourse was our clown central tv channels falling for clips from video games, a clip of a downed F16 in Arizona from 2015 etc. as proof of PAF's involvement in Afghanistan !

masood is also tweeting, as are many others including gora reporters

Ambar ji, take a look there and it will help separate the wheat from the chaff.

things are not going all smooth for the taliban or the pakis and there is a revolt of sorts that seems to be slowly gathering steam in afghanistan.

If the revolt ignites, then a lot of players from the gelf, eyran and even some from the CAR including the russkis will start to poke their noses.

In such a case, will the CIA allow itself to be excluded, especially with numerous ameriki hostages still incountry

[NRao]

Mongolian needs to take a bow

[Ambar]

Here's the tentative cabinet of the newly minted emirate. Source @WION News

By the way, wasn't Stanikzai in a US prison after 9/11 ? Imagine him shaking hands with western foreign ministers/foreign secretaries !

1. Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund Acting Minister of State/Acting Prime Minister.

2. Mullah Abdul Ghani, Deputy Prime Minister.

3. Mohtaram Mawlawi Abdul Salam Hanafi, Assistant to the Prime Minister.

4. Mawlawi Muhammad Yaqoub Mujahid, Minister of Defense.

5. Alhaj Mullah Sirajuddin Haqqani, Acting Minister of Interior.

6. Rumi Amir Khan Mottaqi, Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs.

7. Mullah Hedayatullah Badri, Acting Minister of Finance.

8. Sheikh Mawlawi Noorullah, the head of the Ministry of Education.

9. Mullah Khairullah Khairkhah, Head of the Ministry of Information and Culture.

10. Qari Din Hanif, Head of the Ministry of Economy.

11. Sheikh Mawlawi Noor Mohammad Saqib, Acting Minister of Hajj and Endowments.

12. Respected Mawlawi Abdul Hakim Shari, Acting Minister of Justice.

13. Mullah Noorullah Nouri, Head of the Ministry of Borders and Tribes.

14. Mullah Mohammad Yunus Akhundzada Acting Minister of Rural Development.

15. Sheikh Muhammad Khalid Sarparast, Da`wat and Guidance.

16. Mullah Abdul Manan Omari, Acting Minister of Public Works.

17. Haji Mullah Mohammad Issa Akhund, Acting Minister of Mines and Petroleum.

18. Mullah Abdul Latif Mansour, Head of the Ministry of Water and Electricity.

19. Mullah Hamidullah Akhandzadeh, Acting Minister of Aviation and Transport.

20. Mawlawi Abdul Baqi Haqqani, Acting Minister of Higher Education.

21. Mawlawi Najibullah Haqqani, Acting Minister of Communications.

22. Haji Khalil-ur-Rehman Haqqani, Acting Minister of Refugees.

23. Mullah Abdul Haq Wasiq, Acting Director General of Intelligence.

24. Haji Mohammad Idris, Head of Bank of Afghanistan.

25. Molavi Ahmadjan Ahmadi, Head of Affairs.

26. Mullah Mohammad Fazel Mazlum, Deputy Minister of Defense.

27. Qari Fasihuddin, cheif of Army staff.

28. Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai Deputy Foreign Minister.

29. Molavi Noor Jalal Deputy Minister of Interior.

30. Zabihullah Mojahed, Deputy Minister of Information and Culture.

31. Mullah Taj Mir Javad, First Deputy Director General of Intelligence.

32. Mullah Rahmatullah Najib, Administrative Deputy of the General Directorate of Intelligence.

33. Mullah Abdul Haq Al-Khand, Deputy Minister of Interior in the Counter-Narcotics Department of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

[ldev]

Interesting article. Interview with the ex-CIA counter terrorism chief in South and South-West Asia.

India has good reason to worry over Taliban's rise: Ex-CIA official

I think people need to start talking. I think the Pakistani generals need to realise that time is not on their side, [because of] having cultivated a lot of these forces that can consume them as well. I'm just worried the timing is not right because the Indian government has not extended a hand to the Muslim community inside of India, and is therefore probably not in a real great position to start looking at compromise with the Pakistanis or the Chinese.

We like to say that Indian Muslims are Indians first, except for a few bad apples.

That doesn’t seem to be the CIA’s view. Here he seems to be basically saying that Indian Muslims are Pakistani proxies.

Am I reading it correctly?

I have a different take on that highlighted statement. He is wrong if he and his former employer believe that better treatment of Indian Muslims by the Modi Government is a pre-condition for Pakistan being receptive for better India-Pakistan relations. Because he has mis-read the basic rationale for Pakistani enemity towards India. IMO Pakistan wants mini Muslim majority enclaves within India i.e. Muslims in India to be ruled by Muslims. He is looking at it from the standard US viewpoint as to what constitutes a Muslim extremism threat to the US. It is not the same threat that India faces. India faces the same threat that the US faces but also a ++ unique threat that Pakistan alone poses to India's integrity. His assumption can be proven wrong by simply looking at the outreach to Muslims in India by previous governments from 1951 to 2014. Did that truly ameliorate the Pakistani position towards India?

[Cain Marko]

What is all the more galling is that pos like tsp punches so much above its weight while a country like India that has 10x the heft won't attempt anything of the sort.

India really needs to learn how to fight through a proxy. China fights India through Papistan, Papistan fights India through multiple flavors of Islamic terrorists, Papistan fights Afg through Taliban. For a while India had ltte in SL (leave aside for now the utility or liability of ltte for India) and that got decimated under MMS watch. NO proxy worth mentioning in Nepal, Papistan or AFG.

IF there is a fightback happening in afg vs Taliban, India should be out there providing air support, if not anything else. If tsp supports talib regime, India should bomb it occasionally just on principle. They can't be allowed to feel secure.

[Samay]

Don;t fall for those tweets. While the news of paki regulars fighting alongside the taliban is true, all these tweets about paki F16s, downed PAF choppers, slain SSG commandos etc. are being tweeted by paki handles to troll Indians. Someone photoshopped an old pic of a dead soldier with face of paki tv host amir liaquat and that too was being spread/shared as "real pictures" from Panjshir ! The worst ofcourse was our clown central tv channels falling for clips from video games, a clip of a downed F16 in Arizona from 2015 etc. as proof of PAF's involvement in Afghanistan !

masood is also tweeting, as are many others including gora reporters

Ambar ji, take a look there and it will help separate the wheat from the chaff.

things are not going all smooth for the taliban or the pakis and there is a revolt of sorts that seems to be slowly gathering steam in afghanistan.

If the revolt ignites, then a lot of players from the gelf, eyran and even some from the CAR including the russkis will start to poke their noses.

In such a case, will the CIA allow itself to be excluded, especially with numerous ameriki hostages still incountry

As long as Afg is the principal supplier of narcotics neta slaves will talk to anyone. Supply chain would be more important than democracy for these ?

[Ambar]

Don;t fall for those tweets. While the news of paki regulars fighting alongside the taliban is true, all these tweets about paki F16s, downed PAF choppers, slain SSG commandos etc. are being tweeted by paki handles to troll Indians. Someone photoshopped an old pic of a dead soldier with face of paki tv host amir liaquat and that too was being spread/shared as "real pictures" from Panjshir ! The worst ofcourse was our clown central tv channels falling for clips from video games, a clip of a downed F16 in Arizona from 2015 etc. as proof of PAF's involvement in Afghanistan !

masood is also tweeting, as are many others including gora reporters

Ambar ji, take a look there and it will help separate the wheat from the chaff.

things are not going all smooth for the taliban or the pakis and there is a revolt of sorts that seems to be slowly gathering steam in afghanistan.

If the revolt ignites, then a lot of players from the gelf, eyran and even some from the CAR including the russkis will start to poke their noses.

In such a case, will the CIA allow itself to be excluded, especially with numerous ameriki hostages still incountry

Chetakji, no one knows who is controlling Masood Jr's twitter handle in this fog of war. Until 2 days back he was saying taliban are nowhere near Panjshir, today we see images of taliban destroying Ahmed Shah Masood's tomb ! If there are dead paki regulars then its good, if some of them are SSG then it is even better, but outside of twitter and some known paki handles trolling Indians and our media with all sorts of fake news, no one has seen a conclusive evidence of dead paki soldiers in panjshir let alone a downed helicopter.

[nam]

India should form a deal with Tajikstan and Russia to create a buffer zone in the Northern regions. Example already exist to what Turkey has done. Afghanistan is defacto divided.

The people of the North can be funded and armed to take on any attacks by the cavemen.

It is a given that part of the Doha deal was to recognise the cavemen. I guess the western countries wanted to do it through a backdoor. In the form of "interim & inclusive government". Something i don't understand is what is in for the western countries? it is not as if the bunnies will allow a millitary base!

Afghanistan seems to have divided in to cities versus rural, pashtuns versus others.
The cavemen are fundamentally village thugs. It is fundamentally a fight between the villages versus the cities. There are protest in cities, as people there don't want village fellows to lord over their life.

Pak as usual went around arming these village idiots for it's political needs.

[nam]

The only issue in the current situation is that we allowed the bikaristan a easy victory. Got to keep them in the mess, so that our borders are safe.

[nam]

Beggaristan up to the usual tricks. Seems confirmed by CENTCOM.

https://twitter.com/BenjaminHallFNC/sta ... 7164105729

I wish GoI kick off a humanitarian mission over Panjshir and drop food & water for the besieged valley. Nothing stopping us from flying from Ayni.

[KLNMurthy]

We like to say that Indian Muslims are Indians first, except for a few bad apples.

That doesn’t seem to be the CIA’s view. Here he seems to be basically saying that Indian Muslims are Pakistani proxies.

Am I reading it correctly?

I have a different take on that highlighted statement. He is wrong if he and his former employer believe that better treatment of Indian Muslims by the Modi Government is a pre-condition for Pakistan being receptive for better India-Pakistan relations. Because he has mis-read the basic rationale for Pakistani enemity towards India. IMO Pakistan wants mini Muslim majority enclaves within India i.e. Muslims in India to be ruled by Muslims. He is looking at it from the standard US viewpoint as to what constitutes a Muslim extremism threat to the US. It is not the same threat that India faces. India faces the same threat that the US faces but also a ++ unique threat that Pakistan alone poses to India's integrity. His assumption can be proven wrong by simply looking at the outreach to Muslims in India by previous governments from 1951 to 2014. Did that truly ameliorate the Pakistani position towards India?

I am not buying his view that goi didn’t reach out to Indian Muslims. Of course he is wrong.

I was calling out his logic that to reach out to tsp, goi has to reach out to Indian Muslims, implying that there is a deep bond between IM and tsp. Officially we deny this bond exists. CIA view on the bond may be more realistic.

[vinod]

India should apply pressure on western border and ensure Pakistani focus is removed from Afghanistan.

Now start fund insurgency to the hilt in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Keep them boiling in their own stew. All the while applying pressure on western border. Drain Pakistani resources.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/mull ... 210907.htm
Taliban unveil hardline interim govt, Haqqanis included
Source: PTI - Edited By: Utkarsh Mishra, September 08, 2021
The Taliban on Tuesday unveiled a hardline interim government led by Mullah Mohammad Hasan Akhund, with key roles being shared by high-profile members of the insurgent group, including a specially designated global terrorist of the dreaded Haqqani Network as the interior minister.
Mullah Hasan, the chief of the Taliban's powerful decision-making body 'Rehbari Shura', will be the Acting Prime Minister while Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar will be his deputy in the 'new Islamic government', Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said at a news conference in Kabul.
The announcement of key figures in the caretaker government comes weeks after the Taliban seized control of war-torn Afghanistan, ousting the previous elected leadership which was backed by the West.
The Taliban have previously said they wanted to form an inclusive government.
However, all of the Cabinet ministers announced on Tuesday are already established Taliban leaders.
A statement attributed to Taliban Supreme Leader Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada told the government to uphold Sharia law.
The Taliban want 'strong and healthy relations with our neighbours and all other countries based on mutual respect and interaction', the statement, released in English, said -- with the caveat that they would respect international laws and treaties 'that are not in conflict with Islamic law and the country's national values'.
Sirajuddin Haqqani, a specially designated global terrorist and son of the famous anti-Soviet warlord Jalaluddin Haqqani who founded Haqqani Network, is the new acting interior minister in the 33-member cabinet that has no woman member.
Haqqani has been one of two deputy leaders of the Taliban since 2016 and has a $10 million US bounty on his head.
Khalil Haqqani, Sirajuddin's uncle, was appointed as acting minister for refugees.
Two other members of the Haqqani clan were also named to positions in the interim government, indicating the hand of Pakistan in the Taliban-run government.
The announcement of the interim government comes days after Pakistan's spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Director General Lt Gen Hameed dashed to Kabul on an unannounced visit last week.
.....
Gautam

[vinod]

Doesn't the grouping of taliban leadership in a single place a juicy target for an air strike?

Iran, Tajikistan, anyone?

[rsingh]

Doesn't the grouping of taliban leadership in a single place a juicy target for an air strike?

Iran, Tajikistan, anyone?

You mean a rouge ANA plane from tazzzzikistan ? Bismillah to you.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/govt ... 210908.htm
Govt of terrorists: US lawmakers on new Taliban govt
Lalit K Jha, September 08, 2021
Top American lawmakers from the opposition Republican Party on Tuesday hit out at the Taliban over their announcement of an interim government in Afghanistan that includes a specially designated global terrorist.
"Don't be fooled. There is nothing more moderate about the revived Taliban government. This is a government of terrorists, by the terrorists, and for the terrorists," said the Republican Study Committee, which is the largest conservative caucus in the House of Representatives and chaired by Congressman Jim Banks.
"The Taliban's new cabinet comprises former Guantanamo Bay detainees, designated terrorists, and other individuals closely tied to foreign terror groups like Al-Qaeda and the Haqqani Network," Congressman Tim Burchett said.
Burchett said the Taliban clearly have no intention of moderating their extreme beliefs and methods of government, and the Biden administration is "foolishly trusting them to keep American citizens and allies safe".
"President Biden needs to show some strength and let the Taliban know they cannot put Americans in danger or facilitate acts of terror without serious retribution," he said.
"This is a government of terrorists, by the terrorists, and for the terrorists," said the Republican.
"President Biden still clings to an insane fantasy that the Taliban is kinder and gentler. It's nonsense," said Senator Ben Sasse, a member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
"Haqqani is the Taliban's new interior minister for precisely the same reason the FBI's got a USD 5 million bounty on his head: he's a bloodthirsty terrorist," Sasse said.
......
Gautam

[Dilbu]

Iran draws red lines on Afghanistan

After weeks of strictly sticking to a line of neutrality, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh struck a note of warning about the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.

Speaking at a weekly press briefing on Monday, Khatibzadeh warned about foreign meddling in Panjshir, the last stronghold of opposition against the new order led by Ahmad Massoud who is the son of legendary anti-Taliban commander Ahmad Shah Massoud. Khatibzadeh also strongly condemned the Taliban attack on the valley and described the death of opposition leaders there as “martyrdom,” a major indication of Iranian resentment at the Taliban’s inchoate political deliberations to form a government.

Khatibzadeh said Iran was reviewing the reports of foreign intervention. “This should be reviewed,” he asserted.

Khatibzadeh pointed out, “Afghanistan’s history shows that foreign intervention, both direct and indirect, has resulted in nothing but defeat for the aggressor force, and the Afghan people are independence-seeking and zealous, and certainly any intervention is doomed,” he said.

The Panjshir issue must be resolved through dialogue, with the mediation and presence of all Afghan elders, Khatibzadeh underlined amid reports of the Taliban advance into the valley.

The spokesman noted, “Neither side should allow this path to lead to fratricide. The Taliban must abide by its own obligations under international law and its own obligations by whatever it says. Starving the people of Panjshir, besieging the Panjshir region, cutting off water and electricity in this region is a matter of concern.”

Khatibzadeh stressed that “humanitarian law under international law must be respected.” He once again called for an inclusive government to be established in Afghanistan, one that would include all ethnoreligious groups of the war-torn country.

[g.sarkar]

Doesn't the grouping of taliban leadership in a single place a juicy target for an air strike?
Iran, Tajikistan, anyone?

You mean a rouge ANA plane from tazzzzikistan ? Bismillah to you.

Rouge means red, like Khmer Rouge. Perhaps you mean rogue?
Gautam

[shyamd]

Intel assessment on Afghanistan

- there is a coalition of countries with shared interests (US, UK, India, Russia, central Asian states and China) with respect to terror emanating from Afghanistan that are cooperating.
- meetings taking place more regularly.

- inclusive Govt was always going to be a challenge for the taleban. Lot of intel effort was put in to get the Ghani Govt (and previous Govs) to be inclusive… so ppl were always aware that Taleban will struggle to do this.
- intel guys are very clear that this is a blow to ops… there is no substitute to being on the ground

Delhi is viewing the current situation as a national security crisis.

TSPA are thrilled and celebrating with current situation. Lots of boasting in the region.
I’m told ordinary folks are fearful… many are moving family to Peshawar/TSP or elsewhere. General brain drain.

[ldev]

Intel assessment on Afghanistan........

TSPA are thrilled and celebrating with current situation. Lots of boasting in the region.

Well, General Faiz Hameed, ISI chief is sounding positively gleeful and boastful as he says, "Don't worry, everything will be all right" to the journalist questioning him. This scene was when he arrived in the Serena Hotel in Kabul 3 days ago which ironically was bombed in 2008 by his friends in the Taliban.

[Dilbu]

India, Russia warn against terror groups operating from Afghanistan

The two countries have also decided to set up combined teams comprising of foreign ministry and national security officials of each country to conduct a detailed assessment of the Afghan situation so that future course of action with the Taliban Islamic government is decided by both India and Russia.

The two sides agreed the Taliban must be held to their promises, which included respect for basic human rights, including for women, and not to allow their territory to be used by militants groups.

"There was convergence of views on the presence of international terrorist groups in Afghanistan and threat from terrorism to Central Asia and India," the official said.

India fears that militant groups that operate from Pakistan may also use Afghan territory to orchestrate attacks and says Pakistan should be held responsible because of its close links to the Taliban.

Russia fears turmoil in Afghanistan could spill over into Central Asia, which it regards as its southern defensive flank and as a sphere of influence from which radical Islamist threats could emanate.

Patrushev and Doval discussed the deepening of bilateral security cooperation with a focus on further cooperation on anti-terrorism, combating illegal migration and drug trafficking, Russia's Security Council said in a statement.

[Dilbu]

Unkil has clearly sided with TSP and China and have implemented their strategy in Afghanistan as part of its cut and run policy. They deliberately kept every one guessing about the assessment on Taliban's pace of advance on Kabul while simultaneously rendering ANA ineffective on the ground. This has left India, Russia and Iran in a spot of bother. TSP-Unkil made sure Talibunnies have secured the borders against the formation of Northern Alliance 2.0 before rapidly moving to capture power. Unkil has clearly thrown India under the bus and GoI, as usual, was pressured into inaction against TSP on LoC. Now there appears to be a late realisation in Moscow and New Delhi about the lost opportunities and the need to work together to identify the way forward. Hope this results in some solid action on the ground and not just kadi ninda through joint statements.