nachiket wrote:The MRFA will not see service in IAF before 2030. We both know deals like this do not happen any faster than that in India. So the 10 year period will be the decade of the 2030's. Same time when the Mk2 is supposed to be ready. Also the very thought of spending billions starting at an unspecified date will make the baboos keep everything in abeyance in this decade. So bye bye MKI upgrade which arguably is far more important than any of these deals.
The contest as it runs right now - 114 MRFA deal - will not ever see the light of day. So you are correct there. Even the OEMs who are taking part in the contest are well aware of that fact. It is an open secret among the OEMs, that the IAF wants more Rafales and nothing else.
It appears that the plan is to order the Rafale in smaller batches. So perhaps an order of 36 - 72 birds and when payments are complete (in relation to deliveries), another batch will be ordered. Or it could be an order of 90 aircraft with screwdrivergiri, so 126 in total or 7 squadrons.
Where has it been reported what sanctions will be enforced the moment the S-400 comes in? Yes the S400 precludes the possibility of India ever getting the F-35, but who said anything about engine sales? If that is the case, we might as well scrap both the Mk2 and the AMCA now. It is too late to change the engine on the Mk2 and even the first 2 squadrons of the AMCA (and I am guessing all prototypes and LSP's) are to be powered by the same engine. Blanket sanctions will hurt us in a lot more ways too. Everything from the C-17's and P-8's to the Tejas Mk1/Mk1A will have problems with spares.
It is that very ambiguity nachiket, that is worrying the IAF i.e. what sanctions? which program? Remember the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report on MMRCA 1.0? It was documented by the CAG that it was the IAF that did not want an American bird in their stables for this very reason. And back in the late 2000s, there was nothing called CAATSA.
The American entrants are hoping that GOTUS will apply the necessary diplomatic pressure, but the State Department (like a regular alarm clock) keeps reminding India every few months, of what will happen when the S-400 comes. The IAF is publicly silent on the issue of the damocles sword (sanctions), but is well aware that it will likely be their day-to-day operations that will be affected. And contrary to popular belief by American apologists on BRF, sanctions is not some imagination that we on the forum are spinning out of thin air. The US State Department has consistently said that there will be consequences. What those consequences are, we will all come to know once the S-400 is delivered to the IAF in December. What would be worse is not applying the sanctions, but threatening to do that very act. And if India acquiesces on that threat, then the US will do the same again in the future and we will roll over like an obedient puppy. So pay the price, whatever it may be - slap on the wrist on one end of the spectrum, full blown sanctions on the other end of the spectrum and which will affect all American kit in service or something in between. But pay that price.
The proof lies in the pudding ---> why is the IAF insisting that after the first two AMCA squadrons, the turbofans must be of Indian origin? Why not continue with the F414 turbofan? Technically, that engine is proven and used on a variety of platforms. Why risk AMCA with a brand new turbofan? What is the plus in doing that? Especially with 123 Tejas Mk1/Mk1As all powered by F404 turbofans. And the plan was to have over a 100+ Tejas Mk2 with F414 turbofans. 200+ aircraft all powered by a proven and fabulous turbofan - a fact confirmed by a number of Air Chiefs - that comes from a country with a proven political unreliability. And 200+ aircraft - for the Indian Air Force - is a significant portion of the fighter fleet.
All three (F-16 Block 70/72, F-15EX and F-18SH Block III) American contestants in the MRFA competition have decades of service ahead of them. And all three will see service with the USAF and USN. And these aircraft will prevail in any conflict with the PLAAF. This is the same IAF that orders C-17s, C-130s, ISTAR, CH-47s, AH-64s, etc cart blanche...but yet when it comes to a fighter, they go to the French? Why not American? What is so fabulous on the Rafale that honestly the F-teens do not have?
By the way, CAATSA is a brilliant law to deny Russia any foreign military sales. Kudos to whoever in the GOTUS who came up with this.