2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[stephen]

I think Modi has decided that this is a fight that he dosn't want to continue right now. Most probably he will let the states decide on promulgating their own laws or perhaps tackle it in his next term. This decision to repeal the law has caught everyone by surprise, most of all the agitation farmers. For most people this agitation had already lost steam and was almost a done and dusted thing like Art 370. I don't even think he is under any illusion that he is going to win back the support of the farmers lost during the agitation. At the most the it will be very minor, there will be a section of farmer supporters who might have disagreed with the laws but were nevertheless BJP supporters. These section will now definitely vote for BJP in the upcoming elections.
There is a lot more going on, on which he wants to focus and it most definitely have to do with our eastern neighbor. The storm is gathering in our eastern and northern front and he would want the whole nation concentrating on the coming months.
Blaming Modi for backtracking would definitely not be advisable as I am sure there is a compelling reason, which definitely is not the upcoming elections.

[Prem Kumar]

Dominance Hierarchy leads to stable societies in many species. True for humans too. To all members of a society, it must be clear what the power-structure looks like, who is on top, where does one stand in the ladder etc.

If this is clear, there is stability.

When the person who is supposed to be on top signals weakness repeatedly, then it leads to:

1) Confusion & lack of confidence in the minds of people
2) Emboldens other aspirants to the throne

One of the reasons Modi won by a landslide in 2019 was Balakot. It signaled alpha-animal features and gave people re-assurance that they are safe. That's also the reason why most people remember Indira Gandhi with fondness (1971), even though she was a disaster on so many fronts.

Modi needs to re-establish his dominance. A way to start is by crushing other aspirants to the throne & anarchists in a very visible way. Otherwise he is jeopardizing both UP 2022 and GE 2024

[chetak]

The worst part is this instead of thinking we only gained independence in 2014 it feels more like we are getting colonised again. Just like then say in the 1930s the judiciary and police and media are not with but against Hindus while outwardly there is a Government of India “appointed “ after elections with a majority but the governance is actually controlled by someone else BIF here instead of Angrez.
It is a running theme for the last 1000 years that our muscle is used against us time and again with the rajahs, maharajas, zamindars ruling us with an Islamic or Angrez emperors pulling the strings.
It seems a total liquidation of such ideology and idealogues is the only way out as if it is almost a law of physics. We have been dilly dallying the inevitable. If I look at Eastern democracies all went through such a catharsis violent at times and we have been trying to bypass that. Sometimes surgery is needed instead of antidotes and vaccinations. If not then it at least needs a singular focus and relentless use of inherited legal power to book criminals and get justice done.
Use the police or use the law full force 100% not 80 or 90%. Tolerance, multiple paths to heaven are nice religious concepts but not in governance, if we have a law then it has to be of singular interpretation and implementation. This fiddling will only give rise to Hydras which we can not just keep slaying at the cost of economy and individual liberty and right to live well

And the real minority in this country is the law abiding citizen who does not resort to anarchy because a law does not please him/her or their "community".

At the same time, laws get rammed down our throats all the time because they know there will never be any blowback, not on the street or even electorally and we will, time and again, quietly lump it.

[Karan M]

Forget votes from Punjab

Wasn't expecting them in the first place.. it's the risk of losing votes in other areas that's the concern

as long as they dont keep coming on the streets and join hands with BIF, thats ok for now.

That's exactly the problem Karan ji. BIFs know that there is good chance of getting their way with street power and seige action.

Punjab, sadly, is destined to head towards economic disaster

Which they will get out of by demanding subsidies, incentives and aid packages, debt relief and what not.. at the cost of other states.. just a form of Jizaya.

We are far away (~2.5 years from the next LS elections), recency bias plays a huge role in these things. If BJP swings UP its followers will forgive it IMHO for any perceived weakness in the face of obdurate opposition by granting it the benefit of the doubt ("we didnt like it but the strategy functioned").

The BIF issue is true to an extent but its overstated too. During CAA many BIF types got out on the streets - rioting. Police handled most of them, and the key folks later were hit with UAPA.

The bigger issue here was there werent some BIF/LWE types - they were literally a significant chunk of the dominant ethnic-religious community of a border state which had made it an issue of pride to "rebel" against the state, and no amount of logic was convincing them. Plus, their impact on the AF and possibly restarting an insurgency which never quite disappeared (judging by the adulation for people like B'wale). It was a tinderbox and the Govt decided that when its facing a two front situation with Pakistan and China, it didnt want another 0.25 front within. Punjab elections were secondary IMHO - when NaMO said he is doing it for the nation, the K issue is what he was referring too. Giving BSF control of 50km survey ops is also linked to this, given cross border ammo/drugs transfer attempts.

Added to it was the electoral impact in UP. A chunk of people based on ethnicity was supporting the above movement. Again, in AF too and any strict action against even the minority of people involved would be a propaganda win for the SP, BSP and INC before elections. BJP cannot afford to lose UP. It decides the LS elections as well plus they have phenomenal investment in the states development and want to retain it, and its leadership.

So personally if some JNU type thinks he/she has similar power or the rabid sorts from J&K think likewise, they are mistaken imho. This was a unique case.

Please read the article I linked to KLNM. Pros/cons were evaluated, the leadership decided to change tack.

The rest of the sops, and subsidies stuff -imho that's the SOP across states, but its split by caste and State level SOPs. The only way out is massive economic growth, which is why NaMO is so focused on PLI, Gati Shakti etc.

These other sops for votes issues will never really go away, but all we can do is reduce their need (by improving wealth per capita) and also by expanding the economy so much that it can sustain these cash disbursements much better than it can do so now.

These sort of things are common in politics - you win some, you lose some. And in some you have a quid pro-quo effort - like the one we are seeing here, its pointless to get so personally attached to such an event that it dispirits us when there are much bigger games afoot.

[greatde]

This can't happen without active collaboration of the oppressed with the oppressor. Case in point being how KL and Bengal Hindus continue to vote for Cong, Commies and Mamta (who are all openly anti-Hindu to the core, and don't hide it either). Notice refusal of Punjab Hindus to vote for BJP and continue to vote for Cong or Akalis, and wilfully live under the thumb of Jat Sikhs. Notice the behaviour of Kashmiri Pandits and their umbrage at being called Kashmiri Hindus rather than Kashmiri Pandits, with many openly abusing BJP and RSS. After 1,000 years of slavery, Hindus no longer consider slavery as stigma. They consider their slavery and persecution as normal and acceptable.

Stockholm syndrome. That's the big issue. Indians or rather Hindus have developed psychologically acceptance to invaders, abuses, rioters.

Even here, with farm laws, the poor farmers who are bullied, held hostage, still choose to be on the same side of them. Incredibly, the hostage/poor farmers worried, that they would die if their captor/abusers has power & money taken away through the 3 farm bills.

[Karan M]

raging and impotent keyboard warriors simply don't count. They have never counted and never will.

when it comes to voting for Modi, these jokers go on vaccations because of the holiday. They also know that the voting in important areas are carefully adjusted to ensure a long weekend or it will combine with a public holiday just to make sure that the wokes will find other avenues of escaping the voting process.

Ouch i know exactly the case, when elections occurred to replace a MLA who had passed away in harness, almost all the worthies got up and left for a vacation. Obviously an INC person was chosen. Logic was anyway state Govt was not ours etc. A few months later when BJP was scrounging seats to get back into power, the loss of that seat rankled. And now in that area, appeasement in full flow, common Hs dont even get to talk to that elected "representative" who has a crowd of "chosen voters" 24/7 who go around threatening local H's that "their person is in power". And icing on the cake, that elected representative is a H. Such is Indian "secular democracy".

[Karan M]

This can't happen without active collaboration of the oppressed with the oppressor. Case in point being how KL and Bengal Hindus continue to vote for Cong, Commies and Mamta (who are all openly anti-Hindu to the core, and don't hide it either). Notice refusal of Punjab Hindus to vote for BJP and continue to vote for Cong or Akalis, and wilfully live under the thumb of Jat Sikhs. Notice the behaviour of Kashmiri Pandits and their umbrage at being called Kashmiri Hindus rather than Kashmiri Pandits, with many openly abusing BJP and RSS. After 1,000 years of slavery, Hindus no longer consider slavery as stigma. They consider their slavery and persecution as normal and acceptable.

Stockholm syndrome. That's the big issue. Indians or rather Hindus have developed psychologically acceptance to invaders, abuses, rioters.

Even here, with farm laws, the poor farmers who are bullied, held hostage, still choose to be on the same side of them. Incredibly, the hostage/poor farmers worried, that they would die if their captor/abusers has power & money taken away through the 3 farm bills.

Stockholm syndrome and inability to understand a good deal when they have one. I get online or even RL campaigning/venting etc to force the BJP to change tack, adopt policies closer to one's point of view (after all, that's democracy and dedicated supporters, especially have an "extra" right to their belief!). But there are people who genuinely go and vote NOTA - because BJP isn't H enough or because its associated with Hs (because of their own religious affiliation) and will ignore the massive changes NaMo has wrought (for the better) in our economic and military structure. If I started listing them I'd run out of space - not being facetious, I track these sort of things and i genuinely cant remember the staggering amount of positive changes. Yet - for anger over 3-4 issues (and granted, they have a right to that anger, no party or leader can be or will be 100% perfect, and they need feedback to improve), they are willing to go NOTA or aggressively campaign against it.

I have seen Congy and coalition rule first hand almost all my life in India. I have no desire or pleasant aims to return to that blessed era of crippling economic waywardness, outright 24/7 communal appeasement, open and non stop terrorism across India while we wrung our hands impotently, and bills like the communal violence bill which targeted the majority just because they followed a religion the "grand old party"'s leadership and activists disliked. For everyone's sake, please think your options through and don't go NOTA or do similarly silly things.

[chetak]

the mullah, missionary, marxist and khalistani brigades

[KL Dubey]

Most posters likely did not listen to Modi's address. He is a democrat who is genuinely sorry when his efforts have been unsuccessful. This is not the first time....remember the initial stages of OROP, the land laws, etc. He plainly said he could not convince a section of the farmers and will redouble his efforts. This decision would have been made after much thought and discussion with actual farmers in western UP, HR, and PJ.

He will find another way to reform agriculture. Likely through state-based policies. For now he has decided that discretion is the better part of valor.

Modi simply does not think like the posters who are ranting that he has lost his power. If the Opposition is fooling itself into believing that it has "won", all the better for the coming elections.

Reinstatement of 370 etc are pipe dreams for anti-nationals.

[Karan M]

Sushant Sareen tweeted this, which is very relevant

Don’t know why but what Churchill said to Chamberlain comes to mind today: you were given the choice between war and dishonour; you chose dishonour, and you will have war.

All these pithy quotes are very well. They sound suitably ominous but the reality is different.

When China decided to take advantage of us, that too during the worst phases of the pandemic, the leadership didnt buckle and instead, deployed the AF. We are toe to toe with them in almost all key sectors. And that has prevented war so far, and even if it does arrive we are reasonably prepared for it.

The Chinese and the Pakistanis know this leadership isnt a pushover - which is why they are seeking to foment internal strife, and we are not doing the Uighur or Balochistan approach, as the other two have. We know the long term price the society pays and the consequences (internal and international issues) that will result. Instead we are adopting a variety of tricks which may appear concessionary but don't result in a raging, open conflict that has literally turned Pak into a hell-hole and China into a police state.

All I can say is I am glad Sareen ji isnt in politics. Clearly too emotional whereas politics requires a thick skin, constant agility and ability to take hard decisions one after another.

[chetak]

So after taking over our temples, the State expects us to have Halal certified prasadam?

and the jaggery prasadam would have plenty of spit in it, no...........





https://twitter.com/JaipurDialogues/sta ... 9845346304

[Sachin]

and the jaggery prasadam would have plenty of spit in it, no...........

There is also a story floating around that the said jaggery was outsourced from a Shiv Sena leader's jaggery factory in MH . That the shipment was originally for the Middle East, which was diverted to the socialist heaven.

[Primus]

Dominance Hierarchy leads to stable societies in many species. True for humans too. To all members of a society, it must be clear what the power-structure looks like, who is on top, where does one stand in the ladder etc.

If this is clear, there is stability.

When the person who is supposed to be on top signals weakness repeatedly, then it leads to:

1) Confusion & lack of confidence in the minds of people
2) Emboldens other aspirants to the throne

One of the reasons Modi won by a landslide in 2019 was Balakot. It signaled alpha-animal features and gave people re-assurance that they are safe. That's also the reason why most people remember Indira Gandhi with fondness (1971), even though she was a disaster on so many fronts.

Modi needs to re-establish his dominance. A way to start is by crushing other aspirants to the throne & anarchists in a very visible way. Otherwise he is jeopardizing both UP 2022 and GE 2024

Absolutely spot on. I was in Delhi at the time. The evening Abhinandan was released, I was having a drink with an uncle of mine who is rabidly anti-Modi. Even he had a tear in his eye and we drank an extra toast to the nation in celebration as The Hero walked across the border back home. The guys at the counter in small shops and everywhere else were describing the dogfights in detail, glorifying the exploits of our pilots, I was dumbfounded that these youngsters had so much knowledge and such fire in their bellies.

Nothing unites the nation like a common external threat and a strong leader who stands up to it. I recall LSB and the '65 war very well. I pray we don't reach such a situation again, but Modi must be supported no matter what, else we are all doomed.

[Primus]

Folks, the only way for Hindu civilization to survive and withstand the threat within is to be as powerful financially as the other side is. This is not about having rich people like Ambani and Adani on our side (that too is questionable), but having the financial power to harness street muscle, buy the media and protect our workers, like poor Sanjith.

Here is one such organization setting up a means to do so. Please have a look and support it the best way you can, a small amount goes a long way.

https://twitter.com/satyanveshan/status ... 19137?s=21

[Tanaji]

where are his army of supporters, where were they when scum like dakait were blackmailing the republic of India

From the very day we got our "independence" the congis and the commies really ran a semi islamic state where sharia was replaced by the marx manifesto and deluded, deracinated brown shahibs replaced the departed white ones, imbibing deeply the moghul mindset and their jizya culture of extracting Hindu wealth by the simple expedient of controlling the Hindu temples.

They did this wantonly, thus stymying the cultural, educational and spiritual growth of the Hindus while deliberately stunting their potential for growth.

The minorities, as during the britshit raj, continue to enjoy the perks while the majority Hindu taxpayer toils to pay for such state funded largesse.

Chetakji,

The Hindus gave BJP the majority in 2014 and further gave it an absolute majority in 2019. The reasoning behind this is it follow Raajdharam and do what is required without fear of coalition politics and not be at the mercy of partners. Forget the pet peeves we have such as temples, UCC, RTE, Mathura etc., the least one expects is to not kowtow to assorted anti nationals and anarchists. Bit too much to say Hindus should launch a counter demonstration and movement in support of farm laws? Especially when it’s own governments crack down on organisations that do so like Bajrang Dal? Unfair to blame the mango man.

On the flip side, Bhau Torsekar has come out and said that the laws were repealed because of the same reasons you alluded to. Apparently the Captain provided inputs that the coalition of drug mafias, Khalistanis and to some extent INC were going to instigate riots before Punjab elections and get units in the army to revolt. He points to 4 meetings with Modi, 6 with Amit Shah and numerous with Doval as proof. Getting rid of Amarinder as CM was first step of this. Apparently the counter to this was increasing BSF jurisdiction but supposedly the state government didn’t allow this (not sure how much this but is true). So the only option left was this…

I don’t know if this is a case of building a narrative using unconnected facts or the truth…

[chetak]

[Prem Kumar]

Sushant Sareen tweeted this, which is very relevant

All these pithy quotes are very well. They sound suitably ominous but the reality is different.

When China decided to take advantage of us, that too during the worst phases of the pandemic, the leadership didnt buckle and instead, deployed the AF. We are toe to toe with them in almost all key sectors. And that has prevented war so far, and even if it does arrive we are reasonably prepared for it.

The Chinese and the Pakistanis know this leadership isnt a pushover - which is why they are seeking to foment internal strife, and we are not doing the Uighur or Balochistan approach, as the other two have. We know the long term price the society pays and the consequences (internal and international issues) that will result. Instead we are adopting a variety of tricks which may appear concessionary but don't result in a raging, open conflict that has literally turned Pak into a hell-hole and China into a police state.

Don't dismiss it so glibly.

The withdrawal of Farm Laws is a mistake by Modi. Its not a fatal one, but its a big one nevertheless. As I posted above, it signals weakness. He has to give out other signals to recoup. The good news is that we are a long way from 2024. But UP 2022 is round the corner.

Modi has done a great job of managing external enemies. But is deer-in-the-headlights when it comes to street level, persistent protests of the CAA/FarmLaw kind. Its a new form of internal warfare (Urban Maoism 2.0) and needs its own playbook to deal with. We don't seem to have one - yet

Constructive criticism of him & his administration at this juncture is important. Modi & his many supporters ought to realize that the only true, well-meaning opposition are his supporters who demand more of him, but for whom country/civilization come before the party/man they support

[chetak]

naidu weeping copious (crocodile) tears at a press conference where he complained that AP CM insulted his wife.

he was recently refused appointments by AS and NM, both of whom flatly refused to see him.

he has been so isolated in state and national politics that he has no option but to publicly weep.

he may well be looking at the end of his political career, if not the electoral destruction of the political party, a party he misappropriated from his own father in law and sidelined him. what goes around always comes around too.

[sanjaykumar]

It would make the drug business a lot easier.

Punjab can export its industrial machinery fertilizers automobiles electricity.


Or wait. wheat and rice fertilized liberally with extorted subsidies will do.

[Ambar]

"Jiski laati uski bhains" - this saying holds true no matter where you are in the world and in every situation. BJP supporters were too early to celebrate the end of Congress forgetting that BJP has to operate and survive in a system designed from the scratch by Congress ! Congress built this ecosystem brick by brick for over a century to suit its needs, you either adapt to this ecosystem or you perish.

Predictably and almost comically Dakait, samyukta kisan morcha and other assorted agro-terrorists have now said their protests will continue until government covers all farm produces under MSP (remember only 24 produces are currently covered under MSP). They have also asked for farm loans to be waived off, free electricity, compensation for 750 deaths of "farmers" in the protest sites and government jobs for the kin of the deceased !

Next few months will tell how smart or how dumb this decision was. Whatever the consequences one thing is for sure that no government be it current or in future will attempt to touch agriculture reforms again. Secondly, BJP desperately needs some good political and policy advisors so they can improve the administration within the confines of thousands of existing laws instead of introducing new ones.

I remember talking to some disappointed and sulking BJP karyakartas in 2018 when BJP lost all 5 states which went into polls. Their anger and disappointment was that your average BJP MLA or MP or Corporator is just as corrupt, inept and a thug as the one from Congress or JDS or some other regional party. And my opinion back then and even now is BJP is like a contractor who may over invoice, pocket the difference and may even use some substandard materials in construction but Congress on the other hand will forge the papers of your house and sell your house to your neighbor ! So would you rather have a lower quality faucet or poorly plastered walls or not have a house at all ?

[kit]

It would make the drug business a lot easier.

Punjab can export its industrial machinery fertilizers automobiles electricity.


Or wait. wheat and rice fertilized liberally with extorted subsidies will do.

The narco drugs trade via AF-PAK will boom into India. And that will be coupled with arms and terrorists' movement. Once the drugs trade reach momentum, they will buy every cop and judge., fast forward this is enough to create separatist movements deep inside India. All facilitated through " trade" . NO TRADE WITH AF-PAK.PERIOD.

[Larry Walker]

Even after 36 hours - I am still unable to understand NaMo's actions. He is a 24X7 politician who survived and thrived to become PM despite the entire INC and the FF cabal baying for his blood for 10 years. He got elected with a bigger majority 2nd time. So if we part-time arm-chair khayali politicians can easily foresee its impact on his image and CAA revocation demands etc - then is it possible that NaMo did not see this ??
Or is that NaMo exactly wants what we fear - as we cannot see beyond a short horizon and neither are we privy to any info that he has or any plans that he made ?

[Ambar]

What a precarious position Punjab is stuck in ! Unless Captain manages to orchestrate a massive exodus from INC, PJ's future CM will either be a closet Pakistani or a open Khalistani !

[Ambar]

Even after 36 hours - I am still unable to understand NaMo's actions. He is a 24X7 politician who survived and thrived to become PM despite the entire INC and the FF cabal baying for his blood for 10 years. He got elected with a bigger majority 2nd time. So if we part-time arm-chair khayali politicians can easily foresee its impact on his image and CAA revocation demands etc - then is it possible that NaMo did not see this ??
Or is that NaMo exactly wants what we fear - as we cannot see beyond a short horizon and neither are we privy to any info that he has or any plans that he made ?

"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes

I still think it was done to salvage UP, save HR and give Captain the best chance to save Punjab. It was also done because the government sees a possibility of a war with Pakistan and/or China on the horizon. The timing though was all wrong, if repeal was the way to go the best time to do it would have been in June when the country was in the grip of 2nd wave of the pandemic.

[chetak]

All these pithy quotes are very well. They sound suitably ominous but the reality is different.

When China decided to take advantage of us, that too during the worst phases of the pandemic, the leadership didnt buckle and instead, deployed the AF. We are toe to toe with them in almost all key sectors. And that has prevented war so far, and even if it does arrive we are reasonably prepared for it.

The Chinese and the Pakistanis know this leadership isnt a pushover - which is why they are seeking to foment internal strife, and we are not doing the Uighur or Balochistan approach, as the other two have. We know the long term price the society pays and the consequences (internal and international issues) that will result. Instead we are adopting a variety of tricks which may appear concessionary but don't result in a raging, open conflict that has literally turned Pak into a hell-hole and China into a police state.

Don't dismiss it so glibly.

The withdrawal of Farm Laws is a mistake by Modi. Its not a fatal one, but its a big one nevertheless. As I posted above, it signals weakness. He has to give out other signals to recoup. The good news is that we are a long way from 2024. But UP 2022 is round the corner.

Modi has done a great job of managing external enemies. But is deer-in-the-headlights when it comes to street level, persistent protests of the CAA/FarmLaw kind. Its a new form of internal warfare (Urban Maoism 2.0) and needs its own playbook to deal with. We don't seem to have one - yet

Constructive criticism of him & his administration at this juncture is important. Modi & his many supporters ought to realize that the only true, well-meaning opposition are his supporters who demand more of him, but for whom country/civilization come before the party/man they support

Why should you judge Modi based on a single decision?

Didn't he have his spine intact when he abrogated Art 370, and did the surgical strikes.

BTW, the court has already stayed these laws for a period of three years, so what exactly is the damage done to the economy

The ground reality is that there are 21 states who sell outside the rent seeking, congi dominated APMC ecosystem which was specifically set up and tailored by repeated iterations to perfect the extraction of money from the farmers and control them by railroading their rights to buy and sell.

This in turn ensured that the farmer's votes were cast to please their political masters/benefactors and ensure their survivability.

The rest of the states will get there too, sooner rather than later, and will also cast off the yoke of the APMC and embrace a free market for better opportunities

what is dakait or his chamchas going to do... can his masters ensure that the APMC becomes legal and active in all these 21 states/UTs

[sanjaykumar]

Panjab needs to be divided along religious demographics.

The Hindu portion should welcome Indians while the Sikh portion can have 100% job reservation for locals.

I believe this become another dichotomy like North and South Korea.

Actually one of these will look like Afghanistan in3 years.

[chetak]

Panjab needs to be divided along religious demographics.

The Hindu portion should welcome Indians while the Sikh portion can have 100% job reservation for locals.

I believe this become another dichotomy like North and South Korea.

Actually one of these will look like Afghanistan in3 years.

there is a calibrated violence against the dalit sikhs using the arthiyas and their henchmen and also the nihangs. The Hindu's are quiet and submissive

the lynchings for blasphemy are not just random or even done spontaneously.

When needed, such incidents are manufactured and examples are made.

this is how systemic control and vote banks are maintained by spreading fear.

just like mumtaz bano's bengal

[dsreedhar]

Agree with Karan. The repeal was better in the interest of the nation at this time.
The farm protests have definitely exposed the presence of the assumed dead khalistani forces/movement, their being still alive and active to the general public and also its supporters internationally.
The BIF and Punjab farmers may see it as victory temporarily. But the rapid pace of development in next door UP will eventually bring them to senses and make them question their leaders. Also as the number of farmers go down as they move to other industry, their strength, street muscle and political clout will wane. It will happen eventually in due time.

[S_Madhukar]

The message was clear from the K gang that we will slaughter innocents and we have plenty of help and money on the BIF inside to make things happen in our favour. They are our TTP now so we decided to give them one less reason to instigate.
Great but now why is that Kartarpur open again so that Sidhu and gang can conspire more? Donate Punjabi largesse to AfPak? Is COVID variant risk zero? To verify what Captain said is true? I just don’t understand why have such porous borders in these times.
Dacoit and gang are still around. What stops another such issue in Siliguri. What will the cops do, let them ? At least mete out due punishments instead of confusing law enforcers ; who wouldn’t fill their boots when the law makers give out such conflicting messages.
If any one in the IA see this they will be like why do I man a border every inch along the way when you are Willy nilly making it porous anyway.
It feels like we are definitely a union of India instead of Republic of India having to appease one satraps or the other from going over to the other side as and when it suits them. This was for border states but now even the hinterland is risky. We can blame the Brits for the border lines they drew but if it was left to us God knows how it would have looked may be like the enclaves we had with BD.
Having made a U turn here I hope MAD don’t give up on other reforms

[Larry Walker]

[quote="Ambar"
"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes

I still think it was done to salvage UP, save HR and give Captain the best chance to save Punjab. It was also done because the government sees a possibility of a war with Pakistan and/or China on the horizon. The timing though was all wrong, if repeal was the way to go the best time to do it would have been in June when the country was in the grip of 2nd wave of the pandemic.[/quote]

I think some intel inputs of sinister plans for large scale violence and anarchy in Lucknow (kisan maha panchayat on 26-Nov) and the Parliament march (29-Nov).
May be the plan is to challenge Yogi's tough administrator image and either he resorts to thrashing these gangs and there is loss of life and it inflames Jats and Sikhs or Yogi remains mute spectator and that destroys his image just before the polls.
Any loss of Sikh lives in Lucknow would have also been portrayed as Hindu strong man killing Sikhs and conflagrating the Khalistani fire in Punjab.
They would be betting on Yogi showing his tough side and in response to that they can amass a larger violent crowd for march on Parliament which could potentially lead to bigger clashes.
NaMo would have made the announcement to remove the emotional appeal that these mobs can carry. Bereft of that - these mobs are just hooligans who can be dealt with the force of administration.

[Manish_P]

We are far away (~2.5 years from the next LS elections), recency bias plays a huge role in these things. If BJP swings UP its followers will forgive it IMHO for any perceived weakness in the face of obdurate opposition by granting it the benefit of the doubt ("we didnt like it but the strategy functioned").

This is very true what you say about recency bias. And most of the other issues which the BIF have taken up are overtly anti-hindu and/or anti-Bharat. They will unite the patriot voters if taken up near the elections.

The bigger issue here was there werent some BIF/LWE types - they were literally a significant chunk of the dominant ethnic-religious community of a border state which had made it an issue of pride to "rebel" against the state, and no amount of logic was convincing them. Plus, their impact on the AF and possibly restarting an insurgency which never quite disappeared (judging by the adulation for people like B'wale)...

It is an eye-opener to me that it is so bad in Punjab. J&K being what it is and Rajasthan under the Congress with the infestation in Punjab does mean very tough times ahead in the recent future. Having understood that, it is not like the Capt. in Punjab really inspires confidence either. He has been a life long Congi (who allowed the infestation to get this bad under his watch) and is only out to save his own empire, like his Maratha 'farmer' brother.. no saying when he will jump ship or at least get into an understanding with the Khalis.. really a dismal picture.

BJP cannot afford to lose UP. It decides the LS elections as well plus they have phenomenal investment in the states development and want to retain it, and its leadership

Totally agree. Hence the worry that one of the core voter base of the BJP, the middle class, might think that the BJP is also getting into the appeasement game and might be put off from voting. Here I am speaking purely from anecdotal observations of whatsapp groups I am part of. At this point most are baffled, quite a few are angry ('is this why we re-elected them with a thumping majority'), while a minority are 'there must be a good reason' types. Sigh. In a way I hope the BIF restarts their anti CAA and 370 reinstating shenanigans...

Please read the article I linked to KLNM. Pros/cons were evaluated, the leadership decided to change tack.

I missed it. Will check it out.

These sort of things are common in politics - you win some, you lose some. And in some you have a quid pro-quo effort - like the one we are seeing here, its pointless to get so personally attached to such an event that it dispirits us when there are much bigger games afoot.

Yes, that's really it, isn't it. Keep the faith and bash on regardless

[Ambar]

Despite the scary future that awaits us i am anxious to see what the future of Punjab and sikhs looks like. With all the evidence of how their brethren have been massacred at the scale of a genocide or chased off their homes in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the sikhs in India still think they have more in common with Pakistanis and share a solidarity with shantidoots in India against "hindu religious zealots". The recent fashion in NCR is to open up gurudwaras for Friday namaz and serve namazis food . Between their hobnobbing with radical islamists ,the slow conversion of dalit sikhs by evangelicals and the depleting water body in Punjab which is turning its once fertile land into poisonous arid fields, Punjab is poised delicately between rapid industrialization and complete collapse.

[shravanp]

I think some intel inputs of sinister plans for large scale violence and anarchy in Lucknow (kisan maha panchayat on 26-Nov) and the Parliament march (29-Nov).
May be the plan is to challenge Yogi's tough administrator image and either he resorts to thrashing these gangs and there is loss of life and it inflames Jats and Sikhs or Yogi remains mute spectator and that destroys his image just before the polls.

Some day BIF would eventually try all their best to do whatever they can including full blown out anarchy. Modii or Yogi will have to put up the risk of electoral benefits and go in full fledged hunting season.

[Prem Kumar]

Despite the scary future that awaits us i am anxious to see what the future of Punjab and sikhs looks like. With all the evidence of how their brethren have been massacred at the scale of a genocide or chased off their homes in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the sikhs in India still think they have more in common with Pakistanis and share a solidarity with shantidoots in India against "hindu religious zealots". The recent fashion in NCR is to open up gurudwaras for Friday namaz and serve namazis food . Between their hobnobbing with radical islamists ,the slow conversion of dalit sikhs by evangelicals and the depleting water body in Punjab which is turning its once fertile land into poisonous arid fields, Punjab is poised delicately between rapid industrialization and complete collapse.

This is a 100+ year project. Started with the Brits & their social engineering, identity-manipulation academic work. The weaning away of Sikhism from Dharma and their re-establishment as a monotheistic faith which is closer to Islam, is a well planned activity. Much like the Dravidian separatism in Tamilnadu, based on the Aryan invasion Theory

What we see now are the fruits of the poisonous tree

[Prem Kumar]

[

Why should you judge Modi based on a single decision?

Didn't he have his spine intact when he abrogated Art 370, and did the surgical strikes.

BTW, the court has already stayed these laws for a period of three years, so what exactly is the damage done to the economy

One must criticize when its called for. Yes, we all know that the SC has put the laws on hold. I had hoped that he (I use Modi as a proxy for the Govt too) would take on the SC and get it implemented. What we were witnessing was shot across the bow of both the Executive and the Legislature - by the black nighties on the one hand & the anarchists on the other.

It was important to establish not just dominance but also the "rule of law". That he chose not to fight this battle is a matter of concern and disappointment. Imagine the feeling of letdown by the lakhs of farmers who saw benefits in the laws & the lakhs of ordinary citizens, RSS workers etc who blocked & tackled for Modi in support of these laws. Will they stick their neck out the next time, if they feel that the rug can be pulled under their feet anytime? If this was an isolated act, then its different. But coming on the back of CAA, this signals weakness. Just like the RSS/BJP workers in Kerala, the average supporter of Modi/GOI will feel that much more tentative the next time.

This is as much about the benefits of farm laws as it is about perception.

[sanjaykumar]

Apropos industialisation of panjab. It won’t be allowed to happen.

The farmer will be reduced as the sole dispenser of patronage. Panjab will turn into a Gujarat or Tamil Naidu. Can’t have that in a deeply tribal society.

[vimal]

Apropos industialisation of panjab. It won’t be allowed to happen.

The farmer will be reduced as the sole dispenser of patronage. Panjab will turn into a Gujarat or Tamil Naidu. Can’t have that in a deeply tribal society.

Replace farmer with landlord.

[sanjaykumar]

That is too close to bania.

The rich farm owning people in panjab are hardly farmers. They are closer to feudal lords who have serfs working their lands. The focus is on those who call themselves farmers.

[hanumadu]

Are there any WTO rules regarding limits on MSP support, amount of subsidies given to farmers and government procurement? What if the farmers' agitation is a very elaborate plan to skirt making any such commitments by citing internal security issues? When Modi came to power, wasn't one of the first things he did was to backtrack on some of the commitments made by the UPA to limit government procurement?

PS: Not trying to find a 'master stroke' here. Just exploring possibilities.

[hanumadu]

https://www.firstpost.com/business/econ ... 81967.html

When the UPA government had agreed for the TFA in Bali during the last round of negotiations, it was in lieu of a proposed agreement on its food security requirements. The US, EU and other developed countries had opposed India's food subsidy programs if they exceeded 10 per cent of the total agricultural production, the limit permitted under the WTO (World Trade Organisation) rules.

Using the AoA, they picked on India's stock holding of food grains, minimum support prices to farmers and other subsidies while overlooking the fact that they dole out billions of dollars as indirect subsidies in their respective countries.

One way to look at the excess production of food grains is we will have better food security even if it comes at a steep price. We are 1.3 billion people and growing. In case of shortfall, there is no country in the world that produces enough for us to import even at a price. Look at the food shortage issues china has been facing in recent years. And the pandemic has only proved the necessity of having a huge food distribution program.