Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 30 Jan 2022 21:09

I know that Ukraine brought this upon itself by first building up forces along the Donbas pocket in preparation for their own invasion. I know they cut off Crimea's fresh water supply, starting employing Javelin missiles and Turkish drones against the separatists, and generally took a renewed aggressive posture towards both Crimea and Donbas. All true. The Russian counter buildup was warranted.

But the parallels to our own military buildup in 2002 are hard to ignore. In both cases, the other side refused to budge and it became clear that we had to "put up or shut up", as it were. Both military buildups failed to sufficiently intimidate an enemy with powerful foreign backing. In our case Pakis were backed by US, Saudis, China while in Russia"s case, the Ukies are even more heavily backed by the US & EU. Both military buildups we're intended to pressure the enemy into modifying his behavior without actually going to war. But in both cases, it became clear that this wasn't going to work.

The moral of the story is, if you're going to fight, just do it (like we did with the Balakot strike). Don't try to frighten an irrational and recalcitrant enemy, just smack them down if you have the means. And if you don't have the military superiority to back up your threats, then don't bother. In 2002 we had to reluctantly conclude that we weren't ready for war (by 2019 we were). And now, in 2022 Russia will have to reluctantly admit they're not ready either.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 30 Jan 2022 22:45

The threatening tones from the EU are precisely because Russia is ready, and the tanks seems to be reinforcements to deter the Ukrainian civil war from spilling in Russia. Russia has no reason to invade right now -- It already holds crimea, and Ukraine has no intention of cheesing off Russia if it will not get int NATO, which is not assured for Ukraine according to Germany. If Russia just sits at the border, what is Ukraine going to do with all the Javelin missiles and weapons they have acquired from the US? Use it as expensive office furniture?

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 31 Jan 2022 08:44

srikandan wrote:The threatening tones from the EU are precisely because Russia is ready, and the tanks seems to be reinforcements to deter the Ukrainian civil war from spilling in Russia. Russia has no reason to invade right now -- It already holds crimea, and Ukraine has no intention of cheesing off Russia if it will not get int NATO, which is not assured for Ukraine according to Germany. If Russia just sits at the border, what is Ukraine going to do with all the Javelin missiles and weapons they have acquired from the US? Use it as expensive office furniture?

Ukraine is going to use their new Javelins and their new Turkish drones and the thousands of other anti-tank missiles and other gear they've received, and they're going to attack Donbas with the aim of retaking the enclave in a quick, overwhelming attack. All you hear about is the Russian buildup, but nobody says anything about the 125,000 Ukrainian troops and 2500 tanks and armored vehicles that the Ukrainians have mobilized. With all their fancy new weaponry and 7 years of preparation, they're ready to strike. Russia will be forced to intervene in Donbas and will be blamed as the aggressor, subjected to crippling new sanctions and completely cut off from the world economy. This is bad for us as it pushes Russia into the arms of China even more.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 31 Jan 2022 09:25

From my research and understanding, message from Ukraine foreign ministry and EU has been pretty mild. Germany is totally dependent of Russian gas so are cold to any war, not to mention that this can quickly escalate into a global conflagration right on the footsteps of EU.

Most of the noise has emanated from US as usual and in line with its record of war-mongering in far off lands for the benefit of its MIC.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 31 Jan 2022 09:38

Hard to read what's going on,
Crimea annexation has not been a great success for the locals?
Nord stream 2 is apparently on the table and that will matter.

srin · Post by **srin** » 31 Jan 2022 11:44

One crucial information is missing: does Putin have popular nationalist support for action (overt or covert) in Ukraine ? Will they support Putin if the balloon goes up and body bags start appearing ? So, is the West fighting Putin or is it fighting Russia ? It makes a huge difference.

The Western media and governments keep missing this critical factor. They only look at the military hardware and forget the "software" (the will of people to make sacrifices in return for national interests).

My assessment is that annexation of Crimea was highly popular and I think Putin has pretty much a blank cheque to do what he wants in Ukraine now (as long as he doesn't lose). But I could be wrong.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 31 Jan 2022 12:00

The more important question to ask is how dependent Putin is on popular domestic support in order to retain his grip on power?

The biggest weakness or Russia is the relatively weak civilian economy.

He has not been able to fix that issue. If it further weakens then he might just have a revolution on his hands.

Inder Sharma · Post by **Inder Sharma** » 31 Jan 2022 19:04

Ruskkies stood up and supported even Stalin for the cause of 'Mother Russia'. do we really think that now they will dither in defending a Christian Nationalist Russia?

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 31 Jan 2022 19:46

YKanan: All you hear about is the Russian buildup, but nobody says anything about the 125,000 Ukrainian troops and 2500 tanks and armored vehicles that the Ukrainians have mobilized.

As Srin-ji points out the "software" is all important, as we saw in Afghanisthan with billions of $$s of US equipment crumble without a fight. Russia has a lot more experience conducting war than Ukraine does, so that would matter. Putin has local support for his actions, though Russia after Putin is when it will be at its weakest, not now.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 31 Jan 2022 20:11

Americans in Ukraine are not taking the State Dept.s warning seriously -- Russia moves weapons into Belarus at northern Ukraine border.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... ear-2022-1

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 31 Jan 2022 20:55

Vayutuvan wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Europe has no stomach for a conflict. Germany has shut all N-power plants, coal is a no go for green lobbies, so gas piped from Russia is the life line.
I have one doubt. Heard on Journal Editorial Review (or the one before) on Fox News that the pipeline from Russia to Germany is economically not viable but Putin is weaponizing the pipeline. Since Germany had given up Nuclear energy, I don't understand how this can't be economically viable. Naturally, Germany would have to pay enough to make it economically viable.

There is a lot of FUD from all sides.

"In every war the first casualty is the truth"

There is NS2... and regardless of how much US claims it will stop NS2 "one way or the other" if Russia invades Ukraine, I fail to see how that action is viable.

kit · Post by **kit** » 31 Jan 2022 20:58

vimal wrote:
Most of the noise has emanated from US as usual and in line with its record of war-mongering in far off lands for the benefit of its MIC.

Indeed., without the political appettite for all out wars, the American MIC will try remote controlled wars..with their weapons..

the whole world is fair game for them

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 31 Jan 2022 21:05

srin wrote:One crucial information is missing: does Putin have popular nationalist support for action (overt or covert) in Ukraine ? Will they support Putin if the balloon goes up and body bags start appearing ? So, is the West fighting Putin or is it fighting Russia ? It makes a huge difference.

not exactly. Russia just wants a nationalistic strong state and taking Ukraine will be more problematic from an economic perspective and anything thats net negative from economic perspective will lead to massive pushback from public now (Russian finances aren't looking excellent though its not very problematic). Plus, as you mention, with body bags, it will become unpopular quickly... and Ukrainians have built up defensively.

this wont be a walk in the park for Russia, by the looks of it. And longer in the deep areas with supply lines further out, can be complicated for Putin.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 31 Jan 2022 21:21

Russia has defensive/offensive deployments to the North in Belarus and to the East --don't see Ukraine matching these reinforcement inside their borders.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 31 Jan 2022 21:38

srikandan wrote:Americans in Ukraine are not taking the State Dept.s warning seriously -- Russia moves weapons into Belarus at northern UK border.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... ear-2022-1

BISMILLA err which UK border we are talking about?

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 31 Jan 2022 21:44

rsinghji: BISMILLA err which UK border we are talking about?

My fault. rsinghji. Got lazy -- I meant Ukraine, though Russia on UK's border would be nice to see.,

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 01 Feb 2022 00:49

UN security council meeting called by the US to discuss the Ukraine situation. Needs 10 votes to pass the resolution. India abstained. The US got the 10 votes it needed.

India Abstains From UN Security Council Procedural Vote To Discuss Ukraine Issue

Russia and China voted against the meeting, while India, Gabon and Kenya abstained. All other 10 Council members, including Norway, France, the US, the UK, France, Ireland, Brazil and Mexico, voted in favour of the meeting going through.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 01 Feb 2022 01:08

With 2 out of 5 veto-wielders against it, hard to see this Ukraine discussion yielding anything more than talking points and FUD/hot air.

kit · Post by **kit** » 01 Feb 2022 02:35

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... _tvshowbiz

lady was supposed to go from UK to uk

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 01 Feb 2022 04:35

Why Europe has no say in the Russia-Ukraine crisis

Europe, as EU High Representative Josep Borrell has loudly lamented, is not really at the table when it comes to dealing with the Russia-Ukraine crisis. But, given Europe’s need to prevent catastrophe, how is it possible that Europeans have so little say in the matter?

All the focus on the United States’ decline relative to China and the recent upheavals in US domestic politics have obscured a key trend in the transatlantic alliance in the last 15 years. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the US has become ever more powerful relative to its European allies.

One can see this power shift in virtually every area of national strength. On the crudest GDP measure, the US has dramatically outgrown the European Union and the United Kingdom since 2008. In 2008 the EU’s economy was slightly larger than America’s: $16.2 trillion versus $14.7 trillion. By 2020, the US economy had grown to $20.9 trillion, whereas the EU’s had fallen to $15.7 trillion. From rough parity in 2008, America’s economy is now one-third bigger than that of the EU and the UK combined.

According to the most recent Triennial Central Bank Survey from the Bank for International Settlements, the US dollar was bought or sold in around 88 per cent of global foreign exchange transactions in April 2019. This share has remained stable over the past 20 years. In contrast, the euro was bought or sold in 32 per cent of transactions, a decline from its peak of 39 per cent in 2010. The dollar has also sustained its position as the world’s primary reserve currency – accounting for roughly 60 per cent of official foreign exchange reserves, while the euro accounts for 21 per cent. The US has profited from the continuing dominance of its currency to gain an ever-expanding capacity to impose financial sanctions on its enemies and allies alike, without really needing anyone’s cooperation. Russia and China are fighting back against this capacity, with some success, but Europeans have mostly accepted it.

Between 2008 and 2020, US military expenditure increased from $656 billion to $778 billion. In the same period, the military expenditure of the EU27 and the UK declined from $303 billion to $292 billion. Worse, US spending on new defence technologies is more than seven times that of all EU member states combined.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 01 Feb 2022 04:55

The notion "NS2 is not viable" is propaganda.

Just look at the map, Haven't they just doubled capacity along an ALREADY ESTABLISHED path ?!
https://tinyurl.com/yckncmfd

compare how much cheaper, and a head start that is vs with drilling and developing fresh shale wells (e.g. Burisma of Hunter Biden fame) in Eastern Ukraine where a conflict scare is maintaned.

Ukraine retaliated against Russia by choking water from annexed regions.
Russia is squeezing gas transit fees from Ukraine.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/1 ... p-n21.html
https://www.gem.wiki/TurkStream_2_Gas_Pipeline

The US sanctioned Turkstream. Southstream was found "unethical" by the EU. But the EU still needs the gas. The US probably wants to dangle gas transit fees and NATO/EU membership to Ukraine.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 01 Feb 2022 05:26

So, from the EU's POV, Russian oil is far cheaper and more predictable than myriad suppliers like Turkey and Qatar alternatives being suggested by the US. Pre-condition for Ukraine living off transit fees is good relations with Russia, so that won't happen, unless Ukraine mends fences with Russia, which is unlikely.

So if pushed to a corner, EU would have to consider riskier supplies from Qatar and Turkey (and the local political consequences in EU countries if heating gas suppy is disrupted) vs. doubling capacity from Russia. That infamous tape of US officials sneering at Europe back in 2014.

https://news.yahoo.com/leaked-call-ukra ... 27463.html

The diplomatic furor with the EU drew attention to a gulf between Washington and Brussels, who agree on the goal to draw Ukraine closer to the West but disagree over how to achieve it. Some U.S. officials want to threaten Yanukovich's government with sanctions, including travel bans on individuals. Many Europeans worry that such tactics could be counterproductive, driving Ukraine's elite closer to Moscow.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pu ... ar-AALjzUZ

Putin detailed the end of World War II saying countries were forced to choose between Western countries and Russia.

"In fact, it was an ultimatum," Putin wrote, "the consequences of such an aggressive policy can be seen in the example of the Ukrainian tragedy of 2014."

"Why did you need to do this?" he said. "Why did the United States organize a coup?"

"Why did the countries of Europe weakly support it, provoking a split in Ukraine itself and the withdrawal of Crimea from its composition?" Putin wrote.

In 2014, an uprising against Yanukovych occurred after months of unrest following a trade deal that was rejected with the European Union, which resulted in Yanukovych being ousted from office and the overthrow of the Ukrainian government.

The revolution in part resulted in the annexation of Crimea by Russian troops.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 01 Feb 2022 05:51

https://turkstream.info/press/news/2020/222/

TurkStream comprises of two parallel lines, the first line serving the Turkish market, and the second line reaching the Turkish-Bulgarian border for further transport of gas to Europe.
<snip>
TurkStream is the project for a gas pipeline stretching across the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey and Europe, comprising of two parallel lines. Each line has a throughput capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters of gas per year.

Commercial gas supply through the gas pipeline started on 1 January 2020. On 8 January, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan officially launched TurkStream at an opening ceremony in Istanbul.

so US sanctioned Turkstream from earning revenue from EU, and Turkish economy is in free-fall. The Qatari alternative is supposed to connect to this Nabucco pipeline:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabucco_p ... ine-en.svg

The following map of pipelines from Georgia and to the south of EU.

http://images.derstandard.at/2012/06/21 ... 144111.jpg

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 01 Feb 2022 07:24

FM Lavrov suggests that a false flag to spark off a conflict is imminent -- last tweet in chain.

https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status ... 8568497156

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 01 Feb 2022 07:33

srikandan wrote:https://turkstream.info/press/news/2020/222/

TurkStream comprises of two parallel lines, the first line serving the Turkish market, and the second line reaching the Turkish-Bulgarian border for further transport of gas to Europe.
<snip>
TurkStream is the project for a gas pipeline stretching across the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey and Europe, comprising of two parallel lines. Each line has a throughput capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters of gas per year.

Commercial gas supply through the gas pipeline started on 1 January 2020. On 8 January, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan officially launched TurkStream at an opening ceremony in Istanbul.
so US sanctioned Turkstream from earning revenue from EU, and Turkish economy is in free-fall. The Qatari alternative is supposed to connect to this Nabucco pipeline:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabucco_p ... ine-en.svg

The following map of pipelines from Georgia and to the south of EU.

http://images.derstandard.at/2012/06/21 ... 144111.jpg

Btw, what happened to Oman/Qatar - India under sea pipeline? No news or movement

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 01 Feb 2022 20:23

India 'brave' to 'withstand US hand-twisting' on Ukraine vote in UNSC, says Russian diplomat
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 270703.cms
01 Feb 2022

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 Feb 2022 16:25

Pull back from Ukraine if you’re not going to invade, Blinken tells Russia

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in a call on Tuesday that now would be the time to pull back Russian troops from the border with Ukraine if Moscow is not intending to invade, a senior State Department official told reporters.

In a phone call that lasted around 30 minutes, Blinken and Lavrov has held a “professional and fairly candid” conversation in English, the official said, but added the there was no breakthrough or agreement and that Washington had not seen any signs on the ground of a potential de-escalation.

“We continue to hear those assurances that Russia is not planning to invade, but certainly every action we see says otherwise, with the continued buildup of troops, heavy weapons, moving to the border,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

“If President Putin truly does not intend war or regime change, the Secretary told Foreign Minister Lavrov then this is the time to pull back troops and heavy weaponry and engage in a serious discussion... that can enhance collective European security,” the official said.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 Feb 2022 16:27

Putin says West has ‘ignored’ Russia’s security concerns over Ukraine

President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia's security concerns had been ignored as tensions rage between Moscow and NATO over Ukraine.

“We are carefully analyzing the written responses received from the US and NATO,” he told reporters after talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

“But it is already clear that fundamental Russian concerns ended up being ignored,” Putin said, in his first significant public remarks in weeks on the crisis sparked by fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 Feb 2022 20:21

Russia says there was a 'mix-up' in its response to US on Ukraine crisis, as diplomatic pressure intensifies

Moscow (CNN)The Kremlin said Tuesday that there had been a "mix-up" over its reply to the United States on the Ukraine crisis, as diplomatic efforts to deter a Russian invasion picked up pace.

State Department officials confirmed Monday they had "received a written followup from Russia" to a document of proposals the US sent to the Kremlin last week on how to defuse tensions and pave the way for further security talks in response to Russia's demands on security. On Tuesday, however, the Kremlin said that Russia had not yet sent its "main reply" to the US. "There was a mix-up," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in a conference call. "It [the Russian correspondence] regarded a different matter. The main reply on this issue hasn't been handed over, it's still being prepared."

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 03 Feb 2022 05:22

AP Headline: A guerrilla war fought by dentists, coaches and housewives would be a nightmare for Russian military planners, according to both analysts and U.S. intelligence officials.

The humanitarians in the US fueling a war in Ukraine to protect the human rights of Ukrainians. If we are all lucky, one day Ukraine will turn into a free, democratic republic like Afghanisthan, Iraq, and Pakistan with the assistance of the USA.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 04 Feb 2022 08:39

Rakesh wrote:India 'brave' to 'withstand US hand-twisting' on Ukraine vote in UNSC, says Russian diplomat
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 270703.cms
01 Feb 2022

This was absolutely the right choice for India. I wasn’t 100% sure that our US-loving leadership wouldn’t backstab Russia in exchange for vague promises about supporting us on China or Pakistan.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 04 Feb 2022 09:19

Like who still believes in the lies of US Deep State? Havent we seen them do this over and over ? Even Americans don't trust them. smh

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 04 Feb 2022 16:37

Xi and Putin denounce Nato expansion as Ukraine tensions rise

China’s Xi Jingping and Vladimir Putin of Russia have signed a joint statement calling on the west to “abandon the ideologised approaches of the cold war”, as the two leaders showcased their warming relationship amid a tense standoff with the west ahead of the Beijing Olympics.

In the joint statement released by the Kremlin, Putin and Xi called on Nato to rule out expansion in eastern Europe, denounced the formation of security blocs in the Asia-Pacific region, and criticised the Aukus trilateral security pact between the United States, United Kingdom and Australia.

It is the two leaders’ 38th meeting since 2013. The two countries also pledged to step up cooperation to thwart “colour revolutions” and external interference, and vowed to further deepen “back-to-back” strategic coordination.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 05 Feb 2022 01:33

The key factor to recognize is that NATO is an entity with its own interests.

NATO is a military-babucracy that enjoys virtually unlimited funding with no questions asked. A lot of people get rich, advance in their careers, and acquire lucrative post-retirement sinecures thanks to the existence of NATO. Yet, NATO is not answerable to any government or electorate. In some ways, NATO is like a multinational corporation.

Except that MNCs at least produce and market something of value in order to exist. NATO produces nothing of value, has no public shareholders, and has had absolutely no justification for its continued existence, since 1991. So they have to keep inventing justifications. The latest Ukraine situation is just the latest step in a long game.

During the decline of the USSR, Reagan (and later George H W Bush) promised Gorbachev verbally that NATO would not expand any further. Gorbachev took this as a gentleman's agreement, and didn't insist on getting it in writing. That was a fatal mistake from the Russian point of view.

In 1991, the USSR dissolved. (Ukraine never existed as an independent, sovereign nation before this at any point in history).

By 1992, NATO felt that its existence was threatened. France, Germany, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium had already been discussing a Europe-based strategic alliance that would replace NATO and exclude the US. Poodle UQ was recalcitrant (of course). But it seemed like the Europeans would want to go their own way, and NATO was not happy about that. After all, the new European alliance would probably promote its own hierarchies of Jernails and Babus while dumping the existing NATO hierarchies out in the cold.

Washington was not happy about the proposed replacement of NATO by an all-European conglomerate either. After all, that would end Washington's influence in Europe to a sizeable extent.

So what happened was, NATO worked together with the IMF and World Bank (USA-controlled) in order to create conditions whereby NATO would be seen as indispensable by European countries who might otherwise go another way.

What they decided to do was destabilize Yugoslavia. I won't go into all the details here. But there is a very good Youtube documentary by Yugoslavian filmmaker Boris Malagurski that explains how this happened:

Essentially, Yugoslavia was economically crippled by a deliberate campaign of manipulation. Secessionism was encouraged by economic incentives. Ethnic warfare erupted right on Europe's borders. And NATO came rushing in to "save the day" (while also breaking up Yugoslavia). Thus proving that NATO was indispensable for Europe's security even after the USSR's demise.

As Ramana garu often says, it was like the Zamindar who pays the bandits to terrorize the village so that the villagers obligingly submit to the Zamindar's authority.

Next, in 1999, the newly-invigorated NATO (with lots of new funding and new support thanks to the Yugoslav conflict) started to include new members: Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic.

This was a direct slap in the face to Russia, which had been promised that there would be no NATO expansion. But Yeltsin was too drunk to notice.

In 2004 the process was repeated. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia (all former USSR republics) plus Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Slovenia were inducted into NATO. Now NATO extended well into the borders of the former USSR proper (not just Soviet-Bloc countries).

Putin was the President by this time, and he realized what was going on. In 2001, Putin had made an earnest and sincere attempt to reach out to the USA in friendship (after the 9/11 attacks, when he met George W Bush). But this was the thanks he got.

In the following years, NATO became even more ambitious and things became even worse for Russia. The game plan of NATO was:
1) Encourage aandolanjeevi "popular revolutions" against "authoritarian governments" within former Soviet countries. George Soros' OSF and other backers of "NGOs/human-rights organizations" were instrumental in triggering the process. The strategy itself had been developed by US-based thinkers like Gene Sharp since the 1970s.
2) Force Russian-backed regimes to give up power in those countries while putting pro-Western governments in charge.
3) Induct those countries into NATO as a "security guarantee" against Russian aggression.

This is all 2005 by the way, 14 years after the fall of USSR had brought an end to the very justification for NATO's existence!!

This is when you saw the Orange Revolution (Ukraine- failed), Tulip Revolution (Kyrgyzstan- failed), and Rose Revolution (Georgia- succeeded, with the accession of Shakashvili to the Georgian government).

Finally, in April 2008, at a NATO summit in Bucharest, NATO declared (unilaterally) that Ukraine and Georgia--both former Soviet republics-- would become NATO members in future. No reasoning given, no justification, nothing. Just a unilateral declaration.

This was the last straw for Putin.

In August 2008, Russia began to fight back. Shakashvili provoked the Georgia-Ossetia/Abkhazia war and Russia militarily intervened, inflicting a crushing defeat upon the Georgian armed forces.

This was a crucial episode because it exposed the hollowness of NATO's claims of guaranteeing security.

See-- like any money-addicted quasi-military Babucracy-- primary example, Pakistan Army-- NATO wants to rake in money from public coffers but never actually fight. Putin called their bluff in Georgia. NATO has no intention of actually sending their people to bleed and die; the only time it has actually done so was in Afghanistan, after the 9/11/2001 attacks, and we know what a disaster that was. One by one all the NATO militaries pulled out of Afghanistan, leaving only a shadow presence of typists and accountants behind while the Americans were left alone to do the heavy fighting. It was very clear that when things got really hot, NATO was a paper tiger.

So what's the situation now?

NATO (conveniently for the Babus of NATO) has a clause in its charter that says: we cannot admit any country whose borders are currently in dispute, or has an ongoing conflict with internal or external enemies.

Putin has realized that this is a good way to stop countries on the former-USSR periphery from being inducted into NATO. Make them have a problem of ongoing internal or external conflict. If Russia does that, NATO cannot induct them. That is one (among many) reasons why Putin invaded Crimea in 2014 after the George-Soros types orchestrated the Maidan Putsch. Now Ukraine's borders are disputed, so NATO cannot induct Ukraine. QED. Similarly in Georgia, borders are disputed with Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia-- so Georgia cannot be inducted into NATO. QED.

First important corollary to note: for Russia, the key interest is that the border conflict (internal or external) has to be ongoing and continuous. Unresolved conflict is the criteria for NATO not being able to admit a certain country. If the border conflict is resolved, one way or another, the country can be admitted. Only if it is constantly kept unresolved can the country not be admitted into NATO. Therefore it is a key strategic interest of Russia that countries which it does not want NATO to induct, should perpetually have some dispute.

Therefore, if Putin invades Ukraine and some negotiated settlement redraws the borders of Ukraine, just as the borders of former Yugoslavia were redrawn-- then it is no good to Putin. Russia does NOT want an independent Donbass or Crimea. Russia wants a Ukraine with undemarcated and disputed borders.

Second important corollary to note: for NATO, the key interests are two. (1) NATO never has to actually fight, but only take money from US and W. European governments in order to provide "security guarantees". (2) Therefore, the APPEARANCE has to be kept up of constant security threats from Russia against E. European countries, but no ACTUAL conflict involving NATO countries should actually take place.

If you view all the unfolding events in Eastern Europe/Ukraine with the above history and strategic imperatives in mind, everything will start to make sense.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 05 Feb 2022 02:00

https://sustainabilitymag.com/net-zero/ ... clear-tech

Germany seems to have backed itself into a corner by choosing gas over nuclear tech as "green energy"

-- so they are even more beholden to Russia. This is while Germany shut down RT.com and Russia shutdown Deutsche welle yesterday.

Ukraine is openly denying all the propaganda about imminent war, as is being trumpeted by US propaganda outlets. Seems like a stalemate as long as Russia keeps its tanks at the border.

kit · Post by **kit** » 05 Feb 2022 04:34

[quote="Dilbu"]Pull back from Ukraine if you’re not going to invade, Blinken tells Russia
[quote]

Americans impatient for "action" more than the Russians ? .. says a lot as to who is behind the propaganda war

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 05 Feb 2022 05:45

Rudradev wrote:During the decline of the USSR, Reagan (and later George H W Bush) promised Gorbachev verbally that NATO would not expand any further. Gorbachev took this as a gentleman's agreement, and didn't insist on getting it in writing. That was a fatal mistake from the Russian point of view.

Even if the Russians got something writing, it wouldn't have mattered anyway. Two reasons: Yeltsin was coopted but more importantly, the US is in the habit of going back on even written agreements. After 1991 fall of there USSR, there was nobody to call out on the US.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 05 Feb 2022 05:54

Rudradev wrote:By 1992, NATO felt that its existence was threatened. France, Germany, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium ...

A decade before that, early-mid 1980s itself, there used to be protests in the countries I highlighted above re. Amrcian missiles in their countries. These were almost occurring almost every month by mid-1980s. Couples in countries abutting eastern Europe were cohabiting without marriage so that they can avail two dole payments rather than a married couple dole payment. The latter was lower than two individual dole payments.

Weekdays by 3-4PM the bars would be full of partying people "nursing" 500ML ale steins.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 08 Feb 2022 02:25

Random american reminding India on Ukraine that India should follow a rules based order and support the USA, which has a tradition of ignoring all rules based orders..

Derek Grossman: India can no longer trust Russia. China-Russia ties deepening. Russian state-run media outlet criticizes New Delhi on Kashmir. Pakistan PM heads to Moscow this month with Putin likely visiting Islamabad soon. Russia invading Ukraine would undermine rules-based order India upholds

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Feb 2022 12:57

Poodle uvacha.
UK PM Johnson says sanctions ready if Russia attacks Ukraine

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said sanctions and other measures will be ready in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine, and his government will ask parliament for sanctions on Russian individuals and companies.

Writing in The Times, Johnson said Britain is considering deploying Royal Air Force Typhoon fighters and Royal Navy warships to protect southeastern Europe.

“British sanctions and other measures will be ready for any renewed Russian attack,” Johnson wrote.

“The government will ask parliament for new powers to sanction a wider range of Russian individuals and entities, including any company linked to the Russian state or operating in a sector of strategic importance to the Kremlin.

“I welcome Germany’s statement that Nord Stream 2 would be reconsidered in the event of an incursion.” The UK is also preparing to reinforce the British-led Nato battlegroup in Estonia, Johnson added.