MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

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ldev
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by ldev »

ArjunPandit wrote:ldev ji, I don't need to remind you of the size of indian military and the corresponding pension bills.
If a conscious decision is made to reduce overall personnel as many military forces around the world have done, then a solution has to be found to allocate pension expenses under a different accounting head so that the defence budget is not handicapped with legacy costs.

However in the case of the IAF it is also the mix of aircraft it has. One of the primary reasons for the high revenue expenditure for the IAF IMO is because of the high percentage of SU-30 squadrons. They are heavy on current expenditure i.e. fuel consumption, 2 pilots, a large number of spare engines etc. What has directly led to this is the decision in the early 2000s to not go in for 126 Mirage 2000s as requested by the IAF. Capping the number of SU-30s to the original contract with Russia for 140 and then going in for 126 Mirage 2000s would have resulted in a balanced fleet in terms of capabilities as well as revenue expenditure. Sometime ago on one of threads there were actual numbers posted about the cost per flying hour for some of the IAF fighters. The Mirage 2000 was the lowest, the SU-30 was the highest if I recall correctly alongwith the recently inducted Rafale. But the Rafale situation is unique because the domestic supply chain is non-existent and everything has to be imported. MOD balked at the 126 Mirage 2000 request for various reasons I guess. Two that I can think of the top of my head are the upfront capital costs and the pressure from Russia to buy Mig-29s. I am sure that others on the board can think of additional reasons.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by KSingh »

ldev wrote:
KSingh wrote:there isn’t a justification for the MRFA nor feasibility it’ll happen. It’s 2022 and still it hasn’t moved beyond RFI, meanwhile every Tom, Dick and Harry is ordering Rafales leaving IAF far behind.
Furthermore Tom, Dick and Harry have much smaller defence budgets compared to India and yet have CAPEX expenditures which are equal to or higher than India. Just look at Indonesia or Japan or Egypt. IMO India's CAPEX vs Revenue expenditures are out of whack and there is no comprehensive strategy of renewing capital stock to mitigate obsolescence . It's all ad hoc, fighting fire perpetually by the seats of your pants.
As a % of GDP Indian defence spending has actually been falling since ~2012, I believe in 2018-19 it touched a record low of 1.5%

The problem is this is obfuscated because they include pensions in the budget and even international ‘experts’ like SIPRI add the entire MHA budget onto the MoD’s budget.


This has masked the proportional decline, add on MHA and pensions and India is spending 2.2% or so on ‘defence’ this translates into less than 20b for CAPEX for the 3 services (0.6-7% of GDP)


The tooth to tail ratio is far too low but only limited measures have been taken to address this, nothing comprehensive.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by LakshmanPST »

I guess with current budgets, MRFA is quite doable... But it will be too late given the time taken by MMRCA tender...
2-4 squadrons of Rafale G2G deal is the best option...
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by asbchakri »

LakshmanPST wrote:I guess with current budgets, MRFA is quite doable... But it will be too late given the time taken by MMRCA tender...
2-4 squadrons of Rafale G2G deal is the best option...
yeah but, please correct me if I'm wrong, the problem now is Rafale is flush with orders close to 150 +and it will take them nearly 7 years to complete those. Even if we place the orders now we will not see them until the end of this Decade, unless they prioritizes our orders over others.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

asbchakri wrote:
LakshmanPST wrote:I guess with current budgets, MRFA is quite doable... But it will be too late given the time taken by MMRCA tender...
2-4 squadrons of Rafale G2G deal is the best option...
yeah but, please correct me if I'm wrong, the problem now is Rafale is flush with orders close to 150 +and it will take them nearly 7 years to complete those. Even if we place the orders now we will not see them until the end of this Decade, unless they prioritizes our orders over others.
FWIW....see tweet below. A possibility, if India places a repeat order of Rafales. If it is close to 100 aircraft, then one line could end up in India. But that seems highly unlikely. At most another 2 - 3 squadrons, due to budgetary constraints. If another line is opened, India will have to pay for the cost of that line. Nothing is free, even if it is from my philanthropic friends at La France :)

Indonesia and UAE are set to get their Rafales starting from 2026 and 2027 respectively. On the line right now at Merignic, should be Greece, Croatia and possibly Egypt. The French have their own orders as well. The order book for India has been completed. Qatar should be done as well. So if a repeat order (36 - 54 Rafales) is placed now, then deliveries should be completed by 2026/2027. That is little under 4 years. Doable.

A repeat order is easier said than done though. Rafale has become radioactive in Indian political circles. The govt will have to tread carefully if placing a repeat order. There is a judicial probe going on right now in France over the Indian contract. The opposition in India is also continuously fanning the flames of a scam in the Rafale contract, despite being cleared twice by the Supreme Court of India. What will give the Govt a shot in the arm, is if the Indian Navy goes in for the Rafale M (over the F-18). Then the Govt can ask for an IAF-IN combo deal (36 - IAF and 26 - IN). Those numbers are just estimations on my part.

https://twitter.com/Simabras1/status/14 ... ea0BEBPwYg ---> Our facilities is fill of order. We're running at 100%. If India order a new batch of Rafale, we will have to open another line to satisfy everyone.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by asbchakri »

Rakesh wrote:
asbchakri wrote: yeah but, please correct me if I'm wrong, the problem now is Rafale is flush with orders close to 150 +and it will take them nearly 7 years to complete those. Even if we place the orders now we will not see them until the end of this Decade, unless they prioritizes our orders over others.
FWIW....see tweet below. A possibility, if India places a repeat order of Rafales. If it is close to 100 aircraft, then one line could end up in India. But that seems highly unlikely. At most another 2 - 3 squadrons, due to budgetary constraints. If another line is opened, India will have to pay for the cost of that line. Nothing is free, even if it is from my philanthropic friends at La France :)

Indonesia and UAE are set to get their Rafales starting from 2026 and 2027 respectively. On the line right now at Merignic, should be Greece, Croatia and possibly Egypt. The French have their own orders as well. The order book for India has been completed. Qatar should be done as well. So if a repeat order (36 - 54 Rafales) is placed now, then deliveries should be completed by 2026/2027. That is little under 4 years. Doable.

A repeat order is easier said than done though. Rafale has become radioactive in Indian political circles. The govt will have to tread carefully if placing a repeat order. There is a judicial probe going on right now in France over the Indian contract. The opposition in India is also continuously fanning the flames of a scam in the Rafale contract, despite being cleared twice by the Supreme Court of India. What will give the Govt a shot in the arm, is if the Indian Navy goes in for the Rafale M (over the F-18). Then the Govt can ask for an IAF-IN combo deal (36 - IAF and 26 - IN). Those numbers are just estimations on my part.

https://twitter.com/Simabras1/status/14 ... ea0BEBPwYg ---> Our facilities is fill of order. We're running at 100%. If India order a new batch of Rafale, we will have to open another line to satisfy everyone.
Yes i have thought about it(opening a line in India), but did not realize they are willing to open a second line there just for us in a G2G order. Well if we are paying, guess they will :|

If IN also chose it and IAF places that second order, then I guess it makes sense opening a line here as it helps India in the long run. Why do you think it's unlikely to happen, cost?.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by LakshmanPST »

asbchakri wrote: yeah but, please correct me if I'm wrong, the problem now is Rafale is flush with orders close to 150 +and it will take them nearly 7 years to complete those. Even if we place the orders now we will not see them until the end of this Decade, unless they prioritizes our orders over others.
I don't believe MRFA in its current form will go ahead unless IAF is OK with the delayed timelines... If we release RFP today, final downselect will take 5 years atleast, and commercial negotiations another 1-2 years...
First jet will join IAF only after 10 years... That is way too late...
Still, if IAF is OK with it, we can go ahead...
--
To speed up MRFA tender, we can reduce the time taken for downselect by tweaking the SQRs...
Few noob ideas that I have--->
> Eliminate Single Engine jets citing equivalent local option of Tejas Mk2...
> Eliminate Heavy category jets citing 260+ Su30s in IAF...
> Narrow it down to twin engine medium weight jets...
> Test only new features compared to what was tested 15 years back in MMRCA tender...
--
Another way to speed up the tender is to simply add a new requirement that the jet SHOULD have a Navy version capable of operating from a STOBAR...
That will automatically eliminate 6 of the 8 contendors...
And numbers may be increased to 140 (114+26) or IAF's requirement reduced to four squadrons [(72-84)+26 = 98-110 jets]...
In Rafale and F/A 18, test only new features and I guess Rafale will win easily...
---------
If we have to go for a G2G deal of 62-70 jets [(36-44)+26], I think we should pay more money for prioritized delivery...
That will be flagged as scam by opposition...
For these numbers, we can't get a local assembly line...
At normal prices, if we sign a deal today, we can get the first jets only by 2028 I guess...
But I feel Govt. needs to swallow the bitter pill and go ahead with prioritized delivery of these 62-70 jets...
----------
At this point, can't resist not sharing my most recent wet dream--->
> IAF should order 84 jets [(18 × 4 squadrons) + (2 reserves × 6 sqiadrons)]...
> IN should order 26 jets...
> Total G2G deal for 110 jets with 90 jets for local assembly...
> Get a local assembly line in partnership with any private company of Rafale's choosing...
> Heavily localize spares...
> Convert the assembly line into an MRO facility after all jets are delivered...
---->End of Dreaming<----
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

X-Post from the International International Aerospace Discussion thread...
Rakesh wrote:Turkey looks to buy eighty Eurofighter Typhoons
https://www.blogbeforeflight.net/2022/0 ... phoon.html
12 March 2022
Just something to think about;

* Turkey operates nearly 250 F-16C/Ds.
* Turkey has licensed produced a number of F-16s through Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI)

Today, their F-16 fleet needs a solid upgrade to counter the Greek Air Force's Rafales. An upgrade to the Block 70/72 would have been ideal for them. But Erdogan insisted on S-400 and he lost not just access to the F-35, but even additional F-16s and upgrades to the existing F-16s in the Turkish Air Force. America has turned down every Turkish request with regards to their F-16s.

Today, TAI cannot even build a modern combat aircraft without major systems coming in from other nations. Turkey will now spend billions - assuming they have the money - on acquiring a new fourth generation combat aircraft i.e. Typhoon because their fifth generation TF-X program is nowhere on the horizon. So what value did F-16 production really do for Turkey?

The reason I am posting this in this thread, is I am not sure if anyone remembers the Single Engine fighter discussion on BRF. Here is the link ---> viewtopic.php?f=13&t=7261

Click on that link above if anyone needs a refresher. Remember the yarns & fables BRFites were being fed by the Tier 1 industry experts on the value of F-16 production in India? Some of the classic lines that I still remember were;

1) For every one job at TASL (Tata Advanced Systems Ltd) - assembling F-16s - it would create a ripple effect by creating four other jobs.

2) F-16 production in India would get the ball rolling in other sectors of India's economy. That one still makes me smile :)

3) F-16 production in India would give access to also maintaining not only the IAF F-16 fleet, but the global F-16 fleet!

Lesson to learn is assembling any foreign fighter will amount to nothing, other than Transfer of Production (known colloquially on BRF as screwdrivergiri). The only real learning lesson is building your own fighter i.e. Tejas and the ecosystem that comes with it. While we are all cognizant of the falling squadron strength, the IAF will be better placed to order any other fighter (outside of the Tejas weight class) directly from the host nation, than spending billions to set up a factory which will do the same thing but at a higher cost with zero tangible return. A HAL-built Su-30MKI costs more than getting the same from Russia.

Thank goodness the SE fighter contest died a slow death. I really hope the MRFA contest goes the same way.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Kartik »

It has been clear for a long time that France is now India's strongest and most dependable strategic partner, with the most common viewpoint of all. This was also stated by none other than S Jaishankar, that France has been the nation that pays closest attention to India's needs.

It only makes sense then to close the MRFA contest, and go for direct Govt. to Govt. negotiations. Since there is no such thing as a strategic partnership with UK or Sweden to consider, why waste time with the Gripen E or Typhoon? MiG-35 and Su-35E can be ruled out thanks to CAATSA after this Ukraine conflict, plus there is the issue of how their defence industry will fare after the Western sanctions hit.

So with 4 of the fighters not really being contenders, we are left with the F/A-18 E/F, F-15EX and F-21. And with all the rumblings of threats of sanctions against India for not voting against Russia at the UN or importing crude oil from Russia, it is abundantly clear that there will be no US fighter imported. There is simply no way that the IAF and GoI will agree to have it's MRFA be prone to US sanctions. This must've been discussed at the IAF, MoD and GoI levels already. Just the rumours that the Biden Administration has been considering sanctions against India should be enough to end any consideration of US fighters.

That leaves us with only the Rafale. Already one of the most capable of the lot it will allow the IAF to reduce types which they have been wanting to do. It's a no-brainer when we already have 36 Rafales for which we've paid $1.1 billion extra to get ISE done. The earlier the govt. decides to go ahead with more Rafales, the better. As Karan M put it, the threat of a 2 front war is now only looming larger. India can afford the Rafale if it is to be the last fighter import. Already EU nations are bumping up their defence budgets, India should do the same. We are at a greater threat of a conflict than some of those EU nations but the GoI needs to take this much more seriously and prepare accordingly.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Kartik, I really hope we don't end up doing screwdrivergiri of Rafale. Although India just might end up doing just that, if the JV for the 110kN turbofan for AMCA and the proposed MROU facility for the Rafale is to be a reality. Hopefully assembling Rafale by a private player will be cheaper (or the same cost) versus acquiring them from France itself. HAL manufactured 140 Su-30MKIs I believe (please correct me if I am wrong), but still needs to go to Russia for permission to build more. Although I do get the part about the licensing. China OTOH shamelessly reverse engineers their Su-30s and calls it by another name. So all is well.

What I want to see is a ramping up of Tejas production (either by optimizing the existing lines or open a new line) + order a few more Mk1A units (at least two more, but four more would be icing on the cake) and wholeheartedly commit (not empty words, but a firm contract on a triple digit order) on the Tejas Mk2 program. If the IAF wants a new import of Rafale or any other MRFA, then the IAF must be made to agree on this. No agreement, no MRFA. The AMCA program that his present Air Chief keeps harping about, will not exist if there is no Tejas Mk2 ordered in significant numbers. Time for the GOI to step up and walk the walk on Atmanirbhar Bharat.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/indmilitarynews/sta ... YnfCsKz7NQ ---> Boeing is considering pulling out its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and will pitch the F-15E Strike Eagle II for the IAF MRFA program. Boeing is currently also pitching F-18 for the Indian Navy, in competition with Dassault Rafale M.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Cain Marko »

With all due respect to Modi and Co., the lethargy on the Rafale follow on order is borderline criminal. At a time when the AF is seriously losing numbers and when the threat of a war with China+Pak combine has scaled to altogether new levels, this sitting on the bottom with thumbs twiddling is mindblowingly callous. An order of 54 additional birds should have been placed in 2019 soon after Balakote and post 2019 - the time was ripe. This delay is unforgivable, and could prove to be very very costly.

THe desire to set up a line for 90+ rafale is a rubbish one - in terms of cost, time, and technology. This is a late 80s design - building it at an insane cost post 2025 is ridiculous.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Kartik »

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/indmilitarynews/sta ... YnfCsKz7NQ ---> Boeing is considering pulling out its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and will pitch the F-15E Strike Eagle II for the IAF MRFA program. Boeing is currently also pitching F-18 for the Indian Navy, in competition with Dassault Rafale M.
Probably wise to do so. The F/A-18 E/F just doesn't catch the fancy of a the IAF with it's kinematics and agility. In that respect the 9G capable F-15 Eagle II is more suited to the IAF than the 7.8G capable F/A-18 E/F. Will save Boeing the headache of having to provide all the details to IAF for the MRFA when the odds of it making it through are much lower.

In that respect again, the Rafale offers a much better RoI. 2 requirements, the IN and IAF's can be merged when it comes to building the type in India. Better economies of scale can be leveraged to negotiate for lower unit costs and higher ToT. 140 Rafales for the IAF and IN plus add the 36 already in the IAF and we could be talking of a really large fleet that could convince Dassault to set up the MRO for Rafales from all around our region.

No other type will be directly compatible for the IAF either. For the Rafale, we have had to spend $1.1 billion for India Specific Enhancements that only make sense when the Rafale fleet grows beyond 36 to a much larger number. For any other MRFA, it would be absurd to spend so much on IAF specific ISEs when it has been spent on the Rafale already.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by brar_w »

Boeing has been prepared to offer 9G capability on the SH for quite a while IIRC, just like they did with the land based Hornet. They have the test data from the original SH campaign that would allow them to lift the restriction. This was used a couple of years ago during some of their sales campaigns in Europe. The problem with the SH is the decision to cut down and stop production needs to be taken by Boeing in the next year to year and a half even if the production itself does not end in 2025 or 2026. This limits what they can offer. The F-15 EX is just getting started and it'll be in production this decade and perhaps even beyond so it may make sense for them to do that (though I'd need a little more than a random tweet to see if they are actually considering this seriously). Things have changed since the original MMRCA and it seems the competition so many years later will be b/w the same aircraft for the most part which means all the time wasted when they could have simply negotiated options in the original rafale deal.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Boeing’s Eagle-II fighter may join race for India's multi-billion-dollar fighter tender
https://www.ajaishukla.com/2022/03/boei ... -race.html
19 Mar 2022
The MRCA’s specifications are not yet out, so Boeing is uncertain about whether the Eagle-II or the Super Hornet would be a better fit for the IAF. “India needs to relook at their force structure in the light of Rafale and Tejas orders. If the gap is at the high performance end, the F-15EX could be a fit. But these are early days,” says the Boeing official.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Manish_Sharma »

So grippen to F15 EX and in between Rafale, ef2k, f16 all will be competing for the
MULTI ROLE FIGHTER AIRCRAFT competition. I mean f15 has payload equaling two empty weight grippen fighters!

What joke has this import obsession.

Until then they will keep flying mig 21s.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Cain Marko wrote:With all due respect to Modi and Co., the lethargy on the Rafale follow on order is borderline criminal. At a time when the AF is seriously losing numbers and when the threat of a war with China+Pak combine has scaled to altogether new levels, this sitting on the bottom with thumbs twiddling is mindblowingly callous. An order of 54 additional birds should have been placed in 2019 soon after Balakot and post 2019 - the time was ripe. This delay is unforgivable, and could prove to be very very costly.
I am assuming the GOI is waiting to see how the IN trials between the Rafale M and F-18SH will turn out. If it is in favour of the Rafale M, then the process should move much quicker.

The build up should not be with Rafale M, but in larger quantities of the Tejas Mk1A. IMVHO, there should be more orders of the Mk1A.

The Rafale is like a surgical knife - to be used for very specialized missions to make way for the sledgehammers (Su-30MKIs, Jaguars, Mirage 2000s, etc) to come in and do their job. Another 3 - 4 Rafale squadrons should be good. There is no money for 114 of them.
Cain Marko wrote:The desire to set up a line for 90+ rafale is a rubbish one - in terms of cost, time, and technology. This is a late 80s design - building it at an insane cost post 2025 is ridiculous.
I fully agree, but it appears to be that is the price to pay if India is serious about getting that MROU facility for the Rafale. The recently announced JV between Safran-GTRE for a 110kN turbofan for AMCA could be another price to pay, for doing assembly on the Rafale in India.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Kartik »

brar_w wrote:Boeing has been prepared to offer 9G capability on the SH for quite a while IIRC, just like they did with the land based Hornet. They have the test data from the original SH campaign that would allow them to lift the restriction. This was used a couple of years ago during some of their sales campaigns in Europe. The problem with the SH is the decision to cut down and stop production needs to be taken by Boeing in the next year to year and a half even if the production itself does not end in 2025 or 2026. This limits what they can offer. The F-15 EX is just getting started and it'll be in production this decade and perhaps even beyond so it may make sense for them to do that (though I'd need a little more than a random tweet to see if they are actually considering this seriously). Things have changed since the original MMRCA and it seems the competition so many years later will be b/w the same aircraft for the most part which means all the time wasted when they could have simply negotiated options in the original rafale deal.
I haven't seen any article stating that Boeing was willing to remove the wing folding mechanism on the Super Hornet for IAF. The restriction to 7.8G arises from that. It'll require a new wing to be designed and the certification effort won't be small. The Super Hornet also lugs around a heavy undercarriage (one has to see it in person to see how big it is) which is an unnecessary weight penalty for a land based fighter. But there is no plan to alter that either.

The F/A-18L addressed these and was significantly lighter, but it was a concept that didn't find any backers and faded away without any work being done. To date, they haven't offered such a land based Super Hornet in any competition, including in Finland or Canada where they had a good chance since Finland and Canada are existing Hornet operators.

Boeing would be wise to not offer the Super Hornet for the MRCA and rather focus on the F-15 Eagle II which seems to have a better impression amongst analysts and even ex-IAF pilots. But it's biggest issue will remain it's exorbitant cost to acquire, build and operate. When I talk about building the F-15, I refer to Boeing's own admission (in in-house Boeing magazines) that the F-15 was the most manually labor intensive fighter to build, especially when compared to the Super Hornet. Even assuming that the new build F-15 Eagle II's have more automation in the production processes, it is a large fighter and building it at HAL for the first few batches will be very costly.

As you pointed out, the most sensible approach would've been to negotiate with Dassault on follow-on options rather than wasting so much time on another MRFA competition. There is so much going for the Rafale that it is almost hard to believe that the GoI in good faith would've wanted to go for another MRCA competition if it wasn't for just sticking to processes defined and wanting to avoid any accusations of malfeasance.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Kartik »

Rakesh wrote:Boeing’s Eagle-II fighter may join race for India's multi-billion-dollar fighter tender
https://www.ajaishukla.com/2022/03/boei ... -race.html
19 Mar 2022
The MRCA’s specifications are not yet out, so Boeing is uncertain about whether the Eagle-II or the Super Hornet would be a better fit for the IAF. “India needs to relook at their force structure in the light of Rafale and Tejas orders. If the gap is at the high performance end, the F-15EX could be a fit. But these are early days,” says the Boeing official.
Really poor article. Ajai Shukla is angling for a visit to the St. Louis facility it seems and will most likely be in touch with Adm Surendra Ahuja who left the IN to become Boeing India's defence head. the article reeks of the smell of wanting to please those who got him to write it.

Sample this text, which will definitely please Prat Kumar (as Pratyush Kumar likes to be called at Boeing)

When Kumar was transferred to Boeing’s F-15 programme in Saint Louis, USA, his golden touch logged up the United States Air Force’s (USAF’s) purchase of 144 F-15EX Eagle-IIs.
Ajai Shukla also can't differentiate between Singaporean F-15SG and South Korean F-15SK that were essentially F-15Es and not the new F-15 EX Eagle II. Japan has no F-15Es in service at all and operates F-15J/DJs that were built in Japan by Mitsubishi under license in the 1980s. So much for pushing the type when he doesn't even know the difference.
The club of existing F-15EX operators now includes the US, Israel, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and, most recently, Qatar.


And someone needs to inform him that the IN is no longer looking for 57 MRCBFs but has trimmed it down to 26 since they are backing the TEDBF. And that the term TEDBF refers to ADA's in-development fighter and is not a generic acronym.
However, Boeing is extremely confident in its offer of the Super Hornet for the Indian Navy’s tender of 57 “twin-engine deck-based fighters” (TEDBF)
Someone at Boeing should cut his paycheck for writing such a lousy poorly researched article.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by brar_w »

The F-15EX is the new USAF standard of the Advanced Strike Eagle. The Singapore, Saudi, Qatari, and a few other Strike Eagle configurations (including the upgraded USAF Echo's) are generally referred to at Boeing as the Advanced Eagle configurations. This includes Japan's F-15J's as these are being offered (Boeing has now been put on contract) similar "Adv. eagle upgrades" as the USAF E's, EX's etc. Of these, the Qatari configuration is the closest to the USAF's F-15EX baseline though key differences include the EW Suite, and the software baseline (OFP) as well as the full suite of mission computers (though IIRC the QA includes the same MC as the EX) and a digital backbone (fiber throughout and computers and interfaces designed to the latest OMS standards) . None of the other advanced eagles have yet been cleared for the AIM-120D while the F-15EX has begun its certification process for it. Adv. Eagles get a digital EW suite (different from USAF), with MAWS and pylon mounted IRST. USAF's F-15EX configuration gets a new EW suite (AN/ALQ-250 EPAWSS), does not have a MAWS, and will use a pod mounted (Legion Pod) optional IRST utilizing its own computer and pod-pod data-link.

Haven't read the article, but no Prat Kumar at Boeing had no role in pushing F-15EX to USAF or even developing that configuration and its features. The USAF opposed the F-15EX right up to the point it was forced to accept it. The decision was financial and taken by the Office of Secretary of Defense via the Director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) as the most affordable and timely way to modernize the Air National Guard F-15C Eagles after it was determined that even with life upgrades (and new wings), they won't be able to meet the 2018 National Defense Strategy's requirement for readiness in the late 2020's through the late 2030s and perhaps even beyond. The NDS put a strong premium on the homeland defense mission meaning the USAF could not give the Guard hand me downs and expect them to meet the readiness and mission requirements asked from it. The Guard's F-35A's would all be expected to forward deploy leaving the homeland defense squadrons with older F-15C and F-16C aircraft. This necessitated a new aircraft for them and Boeing just happened to have been sitting with 4+ Billion dollar in upgrades and enhancements to the Strike Eagle family funded via FMS sales and USAF's F-15E upgrade program. The EX also pure-fleets the Guard with multi-role aircraft whereas the legacy F-15C's were air to air only (for all practical purposes).
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

brar_w wrote:The USAF opposed the F-15EX right up to the point it was forced to accept it. The decision was financial and taken by the Office of Secretary of Defense via the Director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) as the most affordable and timely way to modernize the Air National Guard F-15C Eagles after it was determined that even with life upgrades (and new wings), they won't be able to meet the 2018 National Defense Strategy's requirement for readiness in the late 2020's through the late 2030s and perhaps even beyond.
When will I ever see the bolded part replicated in India?

Which Raksha Mantri will ever sit down with the IAF (and the Navy and Army) and force them to accept local maal?

I truly *ENVY* the Office of Secretary of Defense and the Director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE).
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by brar_w »

Civilian / political appointees have full control over acquisition or policy decisions. The Guard needed new a/c so they went out and put Boeing on contract. Not very different from when they strong armed the USAF into cancelling the F-22 which forced resignations/firings of both the Chief of staff of the USAF and its civilian service secretary at the time.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

brar_w wrote:Civilian / political appointees have full control over acquisition or policy decisions. The Guard needed new a/c so they went out and put Boeing on contract. Not very different from when they strong armed the USAF into cancelling the F-22 which forced resignations/firings of both the Chief of staff of the USAF and its civilian service secretary at the time.
The above is obviously just not happening in India right now. And that is not just pitiful, but downright criminal.

I will concede the point that the Tejas Mk1A is not in the same league as the MRFA contenders, on a variety of measures. But the Tejas was primarily designed to replace the MiG-21 fleet. The fact is that the Tejas Mk1 is leagues ahead of the MiG-21, the Tejas Mk1 is more effective than the Jaguar in the DPSA role and the Tejas Mk1 is better than the un-upgraded Mirage 2000 (claims made by IAF pilots themselves!!!).

In light of this and with the acute squadron shortage the IAF faces, to order just 83 Mk1As and then jump to 114 MRFA is criminal indeed. Either the IAF has a squadron shortage or it does not have one. I don't advocate mindless purchase of local maal just to satisfy the Atmanirbhar Bharat slogan. But the Mk1 variant has sufficiently proved itself time and time again. I can only imagine the technological leap that the Mk1A will bring over the Mk1 variant and what a perfect replacement she will be for the MiG-21, Jaguar and perhaps even the upgraded Mirage 2000I/TIs.

Either all the test pilots at HAL are lying (when they make these claims about the Tejas Mk1) or the IAF just does not want anything coming out of HAL's stables. Which is it? Is the Tejas truly dismal or is the IAF only after phoren maal? So which is it? Is the IAF truly behind Atmanirbhar Bharat or is it just something that Air HQ throws around as a punchline at media events?

What is Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh exactly doing? Is there no one in Govt who can advise them of this malfeasance? I have lost faith in the IAF to advise the Govt on this. Where is the accountability? Is it beyond the scope or capability of this Govt to tell the IAF, that if they want X number of phoren fighters....then they have to commit to additional Tejas Mk1A units + a firm commitment (actual orders) on the Tejas Mk2. If the IAF is willing to accept screwdrivergiri of a 4th generation phoren platform in the 2030s, then why not do the same with local maal?

If this Govt is unable to do this, then what is the point of Atmanirbhar Bharat? Just import onlee. If the Govt is unable to face the IAF (and her sister services), then why are they calling themselves the Ruling Govt? What value does that term - Ruling Govt - then actually have? Exert the control that is constitutionally provided to you.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by venkat_kv »

Rakesh wrote:...
Rakesh Saar,
Allow me to digress a bit. As you and many more have remarked the Defense Minister or even the babu folks in the mod have very little domain knowledge. Even if someone from the forces are appointed they will not have complete domain knowledge of the sister forces either. i would think that even if an army man from infantry were to be made defense minister he may not know the nitty gritty details of armoured or engineers apart from whatever interaction the individual has with other people. So for him to know what kind of helicopters that IAF needs for transportation or subsystems Navy submarines needs will be quite hard (the person who can do that will be far and few in between who can read between lines and estimate how working of the ministry affect acquisitions which again will not need knowledge of technical details than more than a reading of people and getting things done.

As nachiket and some more posters in the past alluded, the work in MOD is more about pushing files and showing that all rules have been followed and if anything gets acquired then its only a side effect of the process as opposed to the actual work that MOD is supposed to be doing. I believe the late Manohar Parrikar tried to get the MOD to move in the right direction by asking them to make a decision and he would stand by it rather than push files like a pin ball machine and leave things in a limbo.

Coming to the IAF chief, I don't know about the inner thinking but as of now the MK1A and MK2 versions of Tejas are paper planes. (Before the BRF jingoes jump on me, my only reasoning is they are yet to fly). Hopefully in this year MK1A will graduate to a real plane with a prototype flying and in a year to two years you will have MK2 flying and these need to be pursued with dogged determination irrespective of any acquisitions. I will at the very least hold my opinion of the IAF chief untill the end of this year when MK1A "prototype" comes online and MK2 will hopefully solidify a bit more.

The main role of IAF is to fight and they are not yet in a stage in India where they are seen as partners in building MIC, and there is a change coming in very slowly. The previous chief was a big proponent of Indigenous weapon platforms and weapons (he could be a proponent of indigenous weapon platforms or maybe his flying in the Tejas might have also shaped his views on the platform) . the current chief so far not so much based on his public statements. It probably has lot more to do with organizational inertia where so far they have been asked to rubber stamp "most" of the decisions (after starving them for very long without any acquisitions) and now where they are expected to give a decision and stand by it. In such circumstances most of them will try to follow an established procedure and probably come up with new procedure to solve issues in absence of an existing one.

many toes will be stepped on and feathers ruffled when newer procedures are brought in to solve issues with each one trying to protect their turf and they often owe allegiance to their parent orgs (and this includes Services and MOD). In such a scenario certain things get delayed as we chart a clear path and needs constant engagement based on feedback. We may or may not be aware of all the changes that were mooted and then the current decision is arrived at.

Coming to current defense minister Shri Rajnath Singh Ji, i see two issues -
1. one the current administration prefers to resolve the issue silently - it ties down with what Suraj wrote in a Swarajaya article that govt prioritizes order and prefers to bring the change with order unlike our Congoons and Leftist goons with pseudo leftist Aapis who prefer anarchy. So work always get done silently without many big announcements on how they plan to do things.
2. There are many issues for the defense ministry/defense personnel that also needs the minister to focus, we don't have just one issue of planes for airforce that needs attention. You take a topic and it has issues when this govt took over - pensions, bullet proof jackets, helmets, obsolete weaponry, newer acquisitions lack of spares covering all the services, newer acquisitions that i can think right now. If we step into each services we have shortage of basic rifles, tanks, armored vehicles, transport helicopters, attack choppers spares for existing systems. So there is always an issue to solve than getting bogged down or stopping at one issue itself.

The way forward is through Atma Nirbharata indigenous route -whether it is due to budget constraints, sanctions fear or maturing of own products as time progresses all and every venue needs to be taken to get to where we need to be.

Some of the interviews also try to omit a few answers. I remember, during the rafale saga when the airforce officers went to answer the supreme court questions on acqusition of the plane, not a single so called mainstream news channels or bloggers covered it correctly. Infact they chopped and put answers up and down to try to give an impression that the Airforce itself was lying.

The proof as they say is in the eating, hence i want to wait until this year to see what the airforce actually does.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

venkat_kv wrote:Allow me to digress a bit. As you and many more have remarked the Defense Minister or even the babu folks in the mod have very little domain knowledge. Even if someone from the forces are appointed they will not have complete domain knowledge of the sister forces either. i would think that even if an army man from infantry were to be made defense minister he may not know the nitty gritty details of armoured or engineers apart from whatever interaction the individual has with other people. So for him to know what kind of helicopters that IAF needs for transportation or subsystems Navy submarines needs will be quite hard (the person who can do that will be far and few in between who can read between lines and estimate how working of the ministry affect acquisitions which again will not need knowledge of technical details than more than a reading of people and getting things done.
I agree on that point Sir. An army man will have little domain knowledge of the air force or the navy. So appointing someone like General VK Singh as Defence Minister will have negligible effect.

However the rot goes deep in the armed forces. A number of the senior leadership in the army, navy and air force are reading brochures of foreign maal and wishing for X from this nation and Y from that nation. So while the Govt has set Atmanirbhar Bharat as the goal, the services are not modeling their acquisitions with that as the primary aim. On the MRFA saga itself, I will illustrate that example.

* There is a contest to acquire 114 MRFA. Has the IAF ever sat down with the MoD and costed this acquisition? Is it financially affordable? Or is this going to end up like MMRCA 1.0 in where the IAF did the technical trials and then handed over the costing issues to the MoD? So is the excuse going to be something like....that is their headache and not our problem.

* I am not against the MRFA - in principle - but what are the plans to acquire additional Tejas Mk1As and Tejas Mk2s? That is what I want to know. I don't want to read khayali pulao talk of we-are-committing-to-the-AMCA, but give me a firm number (orders) of Tejas Mk2s and additional Tejas Mk1As. While additional MRFAs are necessary, what is going on with the Super Sukhoi upgrade? Improving the serviceability/numbers of the present fleet? Tankers? AEW/AWACS? Is everything on hold in search of the unobtanium 114 MRFA program?

* The timeline to complete all 114 MRFA will continue well into the next decade. So the IAF will be inducting fourth generation combat aircraft in the 2030s. But all things considered, non VLO platforms will still have significant utility in the future. My only hope is that the IAF applies that same yardstick to the Tejas Mk2 as well.

* The IAF has gone on record - from none other than the Air Chief himself - in stating that they will not hit 42 squadrons this decade. But yet the IAF will order only 83 Mk1As, when the previous iteration (Mk1) of this aircraft has exceeded the MiG-21 Bison, the Jaguar and the Mirage 2000 in capability? Ordering another 2 - 4 more Tejas Mk1A units really is going to cripple the IAF? Committing to a large order (minimum 100) of the Tejas Mk2 now, will derail the IAF's combat capability? With the acute squadron shortage and with experienced Bison pilots (the IAF lost three of them in 2021!) losing their lives, why is the Mk1A order only at 83 aircraft?

* I honestly do not know the answers to these questions and so I sincerely ask 1) how many IAF officers (ground and air crew) are partnering with HAL to ensure timely delivery of the Mk1A order and 2) how many IAF officers (ground and air crew) are working with ADA in the development of the Tejas Mk2? After all, with the goal of promoting Atmanirbhar Bharat...the IAF should leave no stones unturned.

* Has the Raksha Mantri or anyone in the MoD ever sat down with the IAF and asked them, are there any bottlenecks to acquiring any more Mk1A units? Has the Raksha Mantri or anyone in the MoD enquired with the IAF on what their long term plans are with regards to the Tejas Mk2 and the AMCA? Has the Raksha Mantri or anyone in the MoD ever asked the IAF what is going on with the Super Sukhoi upgrade, additional Netra Mk1s, ordering additional batches of Astra Mk1s, committing to a large order of Light Combat Helicopters, etc, etc, etc. These are all programs to further Atmanirbhar Bharat. One does not have to be a domain expert to ask these questions.

* If the IAF replies in the negative to these programs, then what are the remedial measures that have to be taken to ensure that these programs take off (in the figurative sense)? Once again, one does not have to be a domain expert to make such recommendations. After all, is not the end goal Atmanirbhar Bharat? Some of the stalwarts as Defence Ministers we have had in the past are the likes of AK Antony (who was well known for only defending the furniture at the Defence Ministry) and Mulayam Singh Yadav. To our beloved politicians, Defence Ministry is like any other Central Govt Ministry i.e. Ministry of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying. Same Thing Onlee!

The services are fully aware of this tamasha and are gaming the system to create a perpetual fountain of import. After 114 MRFA is acquired, then the IAF will launch another acquisition program called MRFGFA (Multi-Role Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft) to acquire over a hundred phoren 5.5+ generation combat aircraft, as the AMCA is not good enough. But then how can it be good enough, because you killed the foundation of the AMCA by hobbling the Mk1A and the Mk2 variants of the Tejas program. And that comedy show will go on for another 20+ years, just like the current one.

The IAF is well aware that these OEMs are not going to give you a GaN fab or Engine Technology, but yet they will whole heartedly recommend acquiring a phoren fighter, because that is the path of least resistance. It is a complete 100% ready made, off the shelf solution. Why invest time, energy and money in developing your own platform...when you can just buy one? And if you have a clueless Defence Minister (which most are), then it makes the task of importing that much easier. When the Project 75 contest was signed (the program to acquire six Scorpene Class SSKs), it was claimed by the then Govt and even the Navy, that there is transfer of technology. Now there is a contest for Project 75I (another six SSKs!) and the Navy is saying that we will get transfer of technology again. So what happened to the ToT from Project 75?

So how to solve this impasse? That solution (which is not easy) lies with the Raksha Mantri. But it has to get done. And the Govt has to be ruthless in this. Whoever does not comply with Atmanirbhar Bharat, their resignation needs to be demanded and acquired. If they are not whole heartedly sincere behind the goals of the Government, then why are they in the Government? But I am well aware that it is easy for me to say this, because vote bank politics factors into every decision in Government. This is an issue that is systemic across political parties in India. Just the nature of the political beast in India. But someone has to bell this cat, otherwise we will be forever importing onlee.
venkat_kv wrote:Coming to the IAF chief, I don't know about the inner thinking but as of now the MK1A and MK2 versions of Tejas are paper planes. (Before the BRF jingoes jump on me, my only reasoning is they are yet to fly). Hopefully in this year MK1A will graduate to a real plane with a prototype flying and in a year to two years you will have MK2 flying and these need to be pursued with dogged determination irrespective of any acquisitions. I will at the very least hold my opinion of the IAF chief untill the end of this year when MK1A "prototype" comes online and MK2 will hopefully solidify a bit more.
I don't know about this Air Chief's inner thinking as well. And while he is silent on the Mk2, there is another group that is eerily silent. Not a single reporter - NOT ONE - has ever asked this Air Chief about the Tejas Mk2. Ever since he became the Air Chief, he talks about Mk1A and then jumps to AMCA. And these reporters gullibly swallow that as gospel truth and move on to the next question. It is like they have all got collective amnesia. How deep is the rot?
venkat_kv wrote:Coming to current defense minister Shri Rajnath Singh Ji, i see two issues -

1. one the current administration prefers to resolve the issue silently - it ties down with what Suraj wrote in a Swarajaya article that govt prioritizes order and prefers to bring the change with order unlike our Congoons and Leftist goons with pseudo leftist Aapis who prefer anarchy. So work always get done silently without many big announcements on how they plan to do things.

2. There are many issues for the defense ministry/defense personnel that also needs the minister to focus, we don't have just one issue of planes for airforce that needs attention. You take a topic and it has issues when this govt took over - pensions, bullet proof jackets, helmets, obsolete weaponry, newer acquisitions lack of spares covering all the services, newer acquisitions that i can think right now. If we step into each services we have shortage of basic rifles, tanks, armored vehicles, transport helicopters, attack choppers spares for existing systems. So there is always an issue to solve than getting bogged down or stopping at one issue itself.
Playing coy and silent on Atmanirbhar Bharat is really not an effective strategy Sir. If things are happening behind the curtains and the Govt is not revealing her hand, then they are shooting themselves in the foot.

No one is asking for the maximum range of a scaled up Uttam AESA on a Super Sukhoi. But the average citizen should know that the Super Sukhoi contains a great deal - if not all - of kit that is sourced from within the country. No one is asking for the actual maximum range of the Astra Mk1 (or the in development Mk2 variant) BVRAAM, but the aam admi must be made aware that large orders are being placed of this missile and will replace all the older Russian and Western BVRAAMs currently in service.

If this government believes in Atmanirbhar Bharat, then orders for additional Netra Mk1s, Light Combat Helicopters, Tejas Mk1As, Tejas Mk2s, Astra Mk1/Mk2, etc must be publicly advertised at every opportunity. Or is one to assume that Atmanirbhar Bharat was only brought out, just to secure another vote bank?
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by venkat_kv »

Rakesh wrote:
So while the Govt has set Atmanirbhar Bharat as the goal, the services are not modeling their acquisitions with that as the primary aim. On the MRFA saga itself, I will illustrate that example.

* There is a contest to acquire 114 MRFA. Has the IAF ever sat down with the MoD and costed this acquisition? Is it financially affordable? Or is this going to end up like MMRCA 1.0 in where the IAF did the technical trials and then handed over the costing issues to the MoD? So is the excuse going to be something like....that is their headache and not our problem.

So how to solve this impasse? That solution (which is not easy) lies with the Raksha Mantri. But it has to get done. And the Govt has to be ruthless in this. Whoever does not comply with Atmanirbhar Bharat, their resignation needs to be demanded and acquired. If they are not whole heartedly sincere behind the goals of the Government, then why are they in the Government? But I am well aware that it is easy for me to say this, because vote bank politics factors into every decision in Government. This is an issue that is systemic across political parties in India. Just the nature of the political beast in India. But someone has to bell this cat, otherwise we will be forever importing onlee.

I don't know about this Air Chief's inner thinking as well. And while he is silent on the Mk2, there is another group that is eerily silent. Not a single reporter - NOT ONE - has ever asked this Air Chief about the Tejas Mk2. Ever since he became the Air Chief, he talks about Mk1A and then jumps to AMCA. And these reporters gullibly swallow that as gospel truth and move on to the next question. It is like they have all got collective amnesia. How deep is the rot?
Rakesh Saar,
I do agree with all the points you have raised. Again it goes back to the point that IAF or services are also being used to set up to lead orgs gradually (as a head of the project to get results and the OFB and HAL will fight tooth and nail to protect their turfs).

I would still say that MOD "might be" (only because I have no idea on internal working) holding discussions with the stake holders. The late Manohar Parriker Ji was one of the finest defense guys who atleast was able to ask pointed questions, which came to light quite late and after he had left the defense ministry.

The current chief will probably not be around to sign the 114MRFA deal if he is stepping down by 2024.

Also the post of CDS was created which is the one that actually communicates to the govt regarding the needs of the forces and what they need. The late CDS Bipin Rawat Ji (a fine officer and and an even better CDS) was regularly commenting on the needs and had repeatedly slapped down the Navy 65K carrier and also the IAF MRFA dreams with staggered purchase comments and the need to balance it with what is actually needed. I think the same will continue hopefully when the next CDS come online, If he was already there i don't think the service chief would be constantly commenting on the 114 MRFA.

The defense minister or the PMO will not openly criticize the forces for it would be bad optics, unlike the previous regime when the PM had asked the services to not fritter away precious resources while overseeing loot in thousands of crores right under his nose. Right now the services are behaving like errant kids in candy shop asking for every fancy thing they see. The CDS will bring some sense I think. Hence my comment for waiting to see till the end of the year when things stabilize a bit.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Does IAF Need Eagle II To Take On China?
https://www.rediff.com/news/report/boei ... 220405.htm
By Ajai Shukla, 05 April 2022
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Thakur_B »

Rakesh wrote:Does IAF Need Eagle II To Take On China?
https://www.rediff.com/news/report/boei ... 220405.htm
By Ajai Shukla, 05 April 2022
The answer can be derived from betteridge's law of headlines.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Pratyush »

The answer is a resounding no. The Su 30 will be good enough for the next 2 decades. Following which a new lo observable platform will be required for the IAF.

It's development should start once the first flight of AMCA has taken place. Using many of the technological solutions for the AMCA. So that it can enter service by 2040 timeframe. I will call it advance technology heavy multi role aircraft ( ATHMRA).
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

On the MRFA, he says this....

"Apart from that, we are continuing with our process for the MRFA. This is in a different category of aircraft. The RFI was issued. We got responses from 8 OEMs. All the RFI responses were analyzed. Now, in a short while, we should be moving the case."

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

As a side note (at the beginning of the video), Nitin asked about the synergy of the three services. The Air Chief gave an interesting answer. Perhaps, this might open the door for Rafale M for the Navy. Common platform to be shared across the services as per requirement i.e. MiG-29K in Ladakh. I still remember deejay's comment (I paraphrase), "The platforms don't belong to just one service." Stand alone phoren fleets are going to be too expensive to purchase and maintain. A retired Vice Admiral from the Navy alluded to that.

The first contract of Buy Global, Make in India (BG-MII) went to Airbus for the C-295. The second contract appears it might go to Dassault for the Rafale for IAF and Navy. The only rival to the Rafale is the F-15EX. None of the others (F-21, MiG-35, Su-35, F-18SH, Typhoon or Gripen E) have any takers in the IAF. But there is no naval variant of the F-15EX. Arguably for the first time in military aviation history, you have an air force eagerly pushing for a fighter aircraft for a naval air wing, because it vastly increases their own chances of getting the same aircraft. Air forces, the world over, dislike aircraft carriers and naval air wings.

What remains to be seen is how many aircraft will be acquired. If the BG-MII route ever comes to fruition, it will have to be a minimum of 100 aircraft for any line to be set up. Seeing how the Navy wants 26 aircraft, that leaves a balance of 74 (or 4 squadrons). But it might go a bit higher than 74 for the IAF, as attrition reserves + TACDE might require some airframes. A third base (apart from Ambala and Hasimara) will come up then. My guess will be Maharajpur AFS @ Gwalior - home of the Balakot Strikers (the three Mirage 2000 squadrons) and home to TACDE.

Two squadrons @ Ambala, two @ Hasimara and two @ Gwalior, for a total of six units (36 Rafales at present + 74 more = 110). The Navy will operate another 26 (18 single seaters + 8 twin seat trainers) from INS Hansa in Goa and from the upcoming Vikrant.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

This nearly two year old interview (between Shiv Aroor and Air Marshal Raghunath Nambiar (retd), the former AOC Western Air Command) in which he clearly says (at 33:15 in the video), that if the Rafale is chosen...the IAF needs 90 airframes and not 114. However affordability of 90 or even 74 airframes, is the elephant in the room.

LIVEFIST Talks To Air Marshal Raghu Nambiar

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by bala »

I keep wondering which MRFA manufacturer will agree to manufacture things in India for what 114 aircrafts. This is ludicrous to say the least, the capital cost of creating a facility and training people to do screwdrivergiri. The C295 case is totally different, we are talking about bleeding edge fighter crafts.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Cain Marko »

Has Macaroni been invited for some special occasion to India by the PM? Say, 15th Aug? I ask because this move for MRFA+Navy fighter will take a lot of political will to push through. And it is only worth pursuing if it goes through very quickly. If the birds don't start coming in around 2025-26, it will put a major spanner in IAF and IN plans/fantasies.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

bala wrote:I keep wondering which MRFA manufacturer will agree to manufacture things in India for what 114 aircrafts. This is ludicrous to say the least, the capital cost of creating a facility and training people to do screwdrivergiri. The C295 case is totally different, we are talking about bleeding edge fighter crafts.
We will not manufacture anything. We will do assembly and call it manufacture :)

Any manufacturer will gladly agree to this venture. They get a second line, charge an arm & a leg for assembling each aircraft but ship all the critical components (turbofan, AESA) as sealed units to just plug and play into the airframe. Why would they not do this? It is a multi-billion dollar lottery ticket that any OEM will gleefully cash in.

We got money to waste on this stupidity, but no money to buy a couple of used B747s or A340s to use as test beds for low bypass turbofans. Got time, energy and money to invest in this nonsense, but no money to invest in a GaN fab. Amazing!

The problem is most don't know the difference between assembly and manufacture. They see an assembly line at HAL and they assume that HAL is actually manufacturing the aircraft. In reality, HAL is only doing screwdrivergiri on the aircraft. Instead of Transfer of Technology, it is Transfer of Production. But not many know that difference and the ones that know (for vested interests), never bother to illustrate that difference.

HAL has assembled MiG-21s, MiG-27s, Jaguars, Hawks, Su-30MKIs, etc. The total quantity of these aircraft assembled, numbers in the high hundreds! But HAL still has to run to Mother Russia to build 12 more Su-30MKIs. Critical components of the Su-30MKI, still come from Russia.

When the Single Engine Fighter thread was going full throttle on BRF, the risk assessor was making the claim that F-16 production would be different from what HAL did. He claimed that the former will be Make in India, while the latter was Made in India. Before we laugh at the sheer stupidity of that sentence, the joke is actually on us. Because this is exactly the smoke & mirror and dance & pony show that HAL has been doing since independence. And this is why people gullibly believe the claim that Narendra Modi stole jobs/opportunities/livelihood/promotions from HAL employees and gave it to Anil Ambani on a silver platter.

Just in case, you or anyone else has *ANY* doubt that F-16 production would have somehow been magically different from what HAL did, see this tweet below.

https://twitter.com/aviation07101/statu ... jS0zCVBFtg ---> Looks like Turkey will get US Congress approval for FMS of 40 F-16 Block-70 and upgrade kits for some of its old F-16s. If sale goes through total strength of F-16s in Turkish Airforce (THK) will cross 300 mark.

Turkey has built far more than 114 F-16s, but still requires permission from Uncle Sam to upgrade or build new ones. Similar to the Su-30MKI story. But the Tier 1 industry experts who graced BRF with their divine presence, were reminding the rest of us that F-16 was going to roll other sectors of the Indian economy and that for every job at the Tata F-16 line, it would generate four other jobs in India. The horse manure (sprinkled with gold dust) that we were being fed was something else.

The value of all the TDs, PVs, LSPs and SPs that HAL has manufactured of the Tejas to date, is more worthwhile than all the MiG-21s, MiG-27s, Jaguars, Hawks and Su-30MKIs that HAL has done assembly on to date. The situation will be no different if we do assembly on Rafale.

Same story, different aircraft.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Cain Marko wrote:Has Macaroni been invited for some special occasion to India by the PM? Say, 15th Aug? I ask because this move for MRFA+Navy fighter will take a lot of political will to push through. And it is only worth pursuing if it goes through very quickly. If the birds don't start coming in around 2025-26, it will put a major spanner in IAF and IN plans/fantasies.
Macaroni :)

He does not need to come or be present. It would be a symbolic move, but not necessary.

If a deal for MRFA-MRCBF assembly is inked, it will be between the two nations. Just like the September 2016 signing - of 36 Rafales - the Raksha Mantri and the French Defence Minister will be there. Plus representatives from Dassault + whoever in India gets the red rose to assemble X number of Rafales. There will be lots of bonhomie, back slapping, hugging and French kissing. Dassault will be popping Champagne and Courvoisier, if such a deal was ever inked.

We will have funded their FCAS program, while our own Tejas Mk2 and AMCA programs will go on the back burner. Dekho...No Money!

But ToT will be there. That will be nice :lol:
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by bala »

Rakesh wrote:They see an assembly line at HAL and they assume that HAL is actually manufacturing the aircraft. In reality, HAL is only doing screwdrivergiri on the aircraft. Instead of Transfer of Technology, it is Transfer of Production.
Yes, Admiral, My Dad was intimately connected with Aircraft engine manufacturing at HAL, I know the story like the back of my hand on how things proceed in GOI. However the infra setup at HAL is quite a penny for any manufacturer, even with imported parts, to do screwdrivergiri of imported components. Unless they want to make the line for their future export endeavors to other nations (I am wondering who that could be) and leverage cheap labor. In C295 case Tata is footing the bill and they have some background making parts for aircrafts.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Bala, that is nice to know about your dad.

Don't worry about the pretty penny that the OEM will spend. They will reap that many times over. None of the OEMs are Mother Theresa's Home for the Aged & Downtrodden. These are FOR PROFIT companies. Everything they do, is designed with that motive in mind. So they will factor all the costs they incur and incorporate that cost into the deal. They will not enter into any contract/deal that will be financially negative for them. The CEOs of these companies are responsible to their shareholders. Thus these CEOs will do everything to ensure that their shareholders always remain happy. And profit is a very good thing and is very necessary for these companies to remain afloat.

Airbus will make sufficient profit in the C-295 deal. Not just upfront with the aircraft, but over the entire life cycle (measured in decades, not in years). Whoever wins the MRFA contest, will enjoy the same.

The loser in the MRFA deal is the customer (Govt, IAF and taxpayer).
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by ramana »

Rakesh wrote:The loser in the MRFA deal is the customer (Govt, IAF and taxpayer).
Fixed it.

The taxpayer either direct or indirect pays the bills.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Prem Kumar »

Rakesh wrote:On the MRFA, he says this....

"Apart from that, we are continuing with our process for the MRFA. This is in a different category of aircraft. The RFI was issued. We got responses from 8 OEMs. All the RFI responses were analyzed. Now, in a short while, we should be moving the case."
Why is it a "different category of aircraft"? There is nothing in the MRFA contender list that cannot be adequately performed by a combination of Tejas MK2, Rafale, Su-30 and AMCA

What I find annoying about people like Gokhale is that they can't ask even the basic level of tough questions: like why do we need the MRFA, in light of MK2 and Rafale? Where is the money going to come from? Why can't squadron strength depletions & pilot deaths be avoided by ordering more Mk1/Mk1a etc?

And no, I don't buy the argument that the questions are pre-vetted and the Chief won't answer them. Our journos are dumb-asses who can't do the basic homework. And too afraid of "access being cut-off" if they ask a barely provocative question. People like Nitin Gokhale are marginally better than the other bozos - that's all
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