Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 18 Feb 2022 17:14

Immy actually wants an invite from Joe Biden......it is a repeat of a 50s trick they pulled on the US. They were then in a similar situation where they were not getting invite from Ike or Truman (I forget).

They then pulled back channels through their Ambassador in Iran to get an invite to the USSR and the US fearful of Pakis going into the commie camp issued an invite to Liaquat Ali Khan to come to DC.

The joke will be on the Russians for falling for the same trick again.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 18 Feb 2022 17:25

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 18 Feb 2022 19:26

This deal seems like the Admiral Gorshkov deal. Too good to come to fruition. On top of that, there are other pipelines which have come under attack already. If it was such a good deal, the Chinese under CPEC would have done this, but even they won’t do it.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 18 Feb 2022 20:09

Pakistan and Russia have signed a pact for 1,100-km gas pipeline from Karachi to Lahore

Good old wash-rinse-repeat. Here a the same headline from 2015...

Pakistan, Russia sign 1,100km gas pipeline agreement

...
The pipeline is expected to get completed by December 2017 ( ) and has capacity of 12.4 billion cubic metres per annum.
...

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Feb 2022 20:34

OT but..imp
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics- ... y-project/

December 13, 2021

The Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline will surely become an important strategic tool for Russia to reactivate the South Asian vector of its foreign policy. Even though the project’s aim is not to gain a fast investment return and economic benefits, it follows significant strategic goals for both countries. As Russia-India political and economic relations are cooling down, Moscow is likely to boost ties with Pakistan, including cooperation in economy, military, safety and potentially nuclear energy, that was highlighted by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during visit to Islamabad earlier this year. Such an expansion of relations with Pakistan will allow Russia to gain a more solid foothold in the South Asian part of China’s BRI, thus opening up a range of new lucrative opportunities for Moscow.

Karsten Riise:
Pakistan’s Opportunities
Apart from its economic and political aspects, the Pakistan Stream Project also has clear geopolitical implications. It marks Russia’s growing influence in South Asia and points to some remarkable transformations that are currently taking place in this region. The ongoing geopolitical game within the India-Russia-Pakistan triangle is yet less favorable for New Delhi much because of the Pakistan Stream Project. Even though the project is not directly aimed to jeopardize the India’s role in the region, it is considered the first dangerous signal for New Delhi. For instance, the International “Extended troika” Conference on Afghanistan, which was held in Moscow last spring united representatives from the United States, Russia, China and Pakistan but left India aside (even though the latter has important strategic interests in Afghanistan).

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Feb 2022 21:21

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1 ... 7776875528

Leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) Dennis Pushilin announces the mass evacuation of civilians from the territory into Russia

Leader of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) Leonid Pasechnik also announces an evacuation. All of the areas in Ukraine under separatist control are currently evacuating civilians.

everyone out and Russia would bomb the hell out of uk ! (not UK

)

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 18 Feb 2022 22:55

Cyrano wrote:Why is ImmyDimmy so keen to visit Russia now? I'm thinking its not really for money, Russia is not known for being a generous donor for troubled countries or basket cases. He has some other bargain to sell that may seemingly benefit Russia in the current standoff but will be detrimental to India's interests. I'm wondering what it can be?

Pakistan has two export commodities: terrorists and heroin. Perhaps Immy wants to offer the services of ISI-trained terrorists as mercenaries to the Russian side in Ukraine. Yes, this would be the first time they were sent off to a conflict that had nothing to do with jihad, but maybe Pakistan is looking to diversify its markets.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 18 Feb 2022 23:19

Or offer its army for hire, like they do with the Saudis ?

"Aapne ghabrana nahin Putin saab, hum bhejengey sastey bandey marne ke waastey"

If they die at home they earn no $$$, if they die elsewhere there could be money to be made ? Repugnant as it sounds, its not beyond Paki's to do that.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 18 Feb 2022 23:41

With both sides now trading artillery and mortar fire, I guess we'll soon get to see more Javelins and also the new British "NLAW" anti-tank weapons in action, as well as the Turkish TB2 drones, which have already seen plenty of combat in Syria, Libya and Armenia. The Ukrainians will be employing all these against the LPR\DPR separatists, and if this escalation keeps up, perhaps against Russian troops as well. For their part, the Russians will be employing their upgraded Krasnopol laser-guided artillery, Kornet anti-tank missiles, their own combat drones, electronic warfare, and other systems they've fine-tuned in Syria. This standoff is looking more like our own 2003 standoff with Pakistan, which, like this current scenario, saw us slowly ratcheting up the pressure on the PA with artillery and other standoff firing. We didn't really want to invade Pakistan in 2003 and I'm convinced the Russians don't really want to invade Ukraine either, US hysteria notwithstanding.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 18 Feb 2022 23:58

Looks the "stable solution" arrived at for all sides going by the news is:

1) EU and Russia decide to continue with their gas trade, so EU's short- to medium- gas supply is now assured.
2) Ukraine does not get into NATO but conflict in Ukraine is at civil war level without threat of escalation
3) US continues to beat its war drums in the hope of fanning the flames from a partially burnt,wet cow-dung patty.
4) Russia keeps its troops within its borders with assurance to EU that it will not do anything as long as Ukraine is out of NATO
5) EU continues to hold the line that Ukraine is free to join NATO if it wants but actually blocking any such thing from happening, so this keeps the US off its back.

Only party that has not gotten what it wanted is the USA, which still wants a full-on conflict in Ukraine and return of "temporarily occupied crimea".

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Feb 2022 00:28

srikandan wrote:Looks the "stable solution" arrived at for all sides going by the news is:

Only party that has not gotten what it wanted is the USA, which still wants a full-on conflict in Ukraine and return of "temporarily occupied crimea".

well and of course, USA is far away and pretty insulated from any fall out !! .. economic or nuclear

.. not that it was not lost on anyone esp the Europeans .. Bore is has his own agenda trying to save his chair by doing as much theatrics as possible

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 19 Feb 2022 00:52

The false flag this time is the same as the "chemical weapons" false flag in Syria that was blamed on Assad but turned out to be the US-supported ISIS "rebels/white hats" a few years later.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status ... 2277018627

We categorically refute Russian disinformation reports on Ukraine’s alleged offensive operations or acts of sabotage in chemical production facilities. Ukraine does not conduct or plan any such actions in the Donbas. We are fully committed to diplomatic conflict resolution only.

Use of chemical weapons that can be blamed on Russia, causes an immediate international escalation in the UN and elsewhere as Russia is a signatory of the chemical weapons ban treaty.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemical_ ... al_weapons

Except

Seven State Parties, namely Albania, an unspecified state party (believed to be South Korea), India, Iraq, Libya, Russia and Syria have completed the destruction of their declared stockpiles. The United States is in the process of destruction and scheduled to complete in 2023.[28] The destruction of Libya's Category 1 chemical weapons was completed in 2014; destruction of its chemical weapon precursors was completed in November 2017.[29][30]"

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 19 Feb 2022 01:08

kit: well and of course, USA is far away and pretty insulated from any fall out !! .. economic or nuclear

new clear detergent,you say, and "voila"!

Explosions in eastern Ukraine prompt increased tensions with the US
On Friday, Russian state media reported a car bomb in Donetsk, Ukraine, an area from which pro-Russian rebels were reportedly evacuating people to Russia, according to reporting from the Financial Times. The US State Department spokesperson said earlier on Friday that the shelling in the area was a "false flag operation" and was being used to distract people from understanding Russia "is the aggressor in this conflict," says Voice of America reporting. US President Joe Biden is expected to discuss the matter with NATO leaders on Friday and speak on the situation publicly, The Associated Press reports. Russia is set to run several practice drills involving its intercontinental ballistic and cruise missiles on Saturday, according to AP, adding to fear of an invasion.

US State dept. seems to have not gotten the memo that everyone and their grandmother know they are incompetent, lying sacks of dung, but they will not let that stop them. I believe this is called the "can do American spirit".

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 19 Feb 2022 01:39

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... 9890317316

Looks like this "Indian Student" finished homework early and decided to take his bazooka for a ride.

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Feb 2022 02:12

srikandan wrote:https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... 9890317316

Looks like this "Indian Student" finished homework early and decided to take his bazooka for a ride.

apparently they would be in line for citizenship .. that is if he alive and well after whatever comes

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 19 Feb 2022 03:07

^^ next we will hear pleas to MEA and Modi to rescue him.

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Feb 2022 03:45

no comments !!

mody · Post by **mody** » 19 Feb 2022 12:48

Another major variable is the Iran nuclear deal, which a lot of people have not commented upon or have not realized about.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/midd ... icial-says

The Biden administration is pushing Iran to complete the deal. This would allow Iranian oil and gas back onto the market, which would help offset loss of Russian oil and gas in case of sanctions. The Europeans were never in favour of cancelling the original deal and would be happy to lap up Iranian gas. The price might be slightly higher than the Russian gas, due to transport and LNG involvement, as against getting it through pipelines.
However, if Iran is allowed back into the international energy market, then the Russian bargaining power goes down.

If the deal gets signed early, say within the next 2 weeks, it might lead to Ukraine starting an offensive on the rebel held Donbas region, egged on by US and UK no doubt!!
Russia would be forced to respond, triggering additional sanctions and the putting Nordstream-2 on hold.
These sanctions would be an extension of the CAATSA strategy. CAATSA only applies to Russian weapons exports. The new sanctions would be aimed all other Russian exports, especially energy. This would leave Russia being able to offer its biggest exports to only China in a meaningful way.

Today the US economy is almost 10-12 times the size of Russian economy. The relative difference in the economic power of the two countries is amongst the largest it has been in a while.

mody · Post by **mody** » 19 Feb 2022 16:44

BBC garbage propaganda reporting that separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk are going to general mobilisation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60443504

mody · Post by **mody** » 19 Feb 2022 17:10

The Old Yak Herder might have had some good insights to share!! A lot of old times are missing since the last couple of years.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 19 Feb 2022 21:08

From the NYT:

Putin’s Ukraine obsession

Winston Churchill once described Russia as “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” It’s a phrase that could equally apply to Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin’s leader, as the world awaits his next move on Ukraine.

To better understand him, we reached out to Fiona Hill, one of Washington’s foremost experts on the Russian president. Hill has served in multiple U.S. administrations as an intelligence officer and policy adviser, most recently as senior director for Europe and Russia on the National Security Council under Donald Trump.

She spoke with us about Putin’s longtime obsession with annexing Ukraine, her worries about how he’s closed himself off from outside information and his private boasts about his ability to “buy anyone” in the United States and Europe.

The following excerpts have been edited for length and clarity:

How would you evaluate the administration’s handling of this crisis so far? What’s worked and what hasn’t?

I think they’re handling it as well as they can be, given the circumstances. Writ large, what the administration is doing right now is certainly what I would recommend doing. But I don’t know whether we can say if it’s going to work or not. The real test is going to be over a long period of time. I don’t think this is going to be a short, sharp crisis.

What do you mean?

Putin’s been trying to get a grip on Ukraine for years now. They cut off the gas to Ukraine in 2006. He’s been in power for 22 years, and the whole of that time, he’s had Ukraine in the cross hairs one way or another, and it’s intensified over time. Putin wants to be the person who, on his watch, in his presidency, pulls Ukraine back into Russia’s orbit. And he could be president until 2036, in terms of what’s possible for him.

Is this fundamentally ideological for him, or geopolitical?

It’s about him personally — his legacy, his view of himself, his view of Russian history. Putin clearly sees himself as a protagonist in Russian history, and is putting himself in the place of previous Russian leaders who’ve tried to gather in what he sees as the Russian land. Ukraine is the outlier, the one that got away that he’s got to bring back.

And does that mean that he’s behaving irrationally here?

No, I don’t think he’s being irrational at all, from his perspective. He’s in a different frame from where we are. He’s living in history and his narrative of history. He also is part of a larger group of security people in Russia who have been opposed to NATO expansion; they want the U.S. out of Europe.

But it seems like he’s made his security situation worse.

That’s from our perspective, on the outside. We don’t know exactly what he’s saying internally. From his point of view right now, he’s put the squeeze on Ukraine and the Ukrainian economy is getting crushed. He’s got all of our attention. We’re all running around doing nothing but talk about him. As he would say, he’s got us listening to him now. Whether we’re hearing him on the terms that he wants us to is another matter.

And you think he’s willing to pay a very high price to get Ukraine — that he’s willing to bear costs that we would see as exorbitant?

Putin thinks that he can be more aggressive and wait us out and take more pain than we can. His goal is to make us split apart, to basically capitulate without actually doing anything. So he’s going to keep the pressure up. I can’t say whether he’s going to invade. But he’s certainly going to give us every impression that he’s going to do it, and he wants to try to find operational surprise. He wants to catch us out.

When he looks at the West’s response, how do you think he is reading the signals?

I don’t know what signals he’s actually getting directly, beyond what they give him in media compilations, what he might be listening to. And that’s part of the problem. We don’t know how good his intel is. And in some cases, we think it might not be great, because he certainly hasn’t read the mood in Ukraine as well as you might have thought. He obviously thought that we’d all fall apart internationally. He didn’t probably anticipate the Western resolve that he’s got in the form of NATO and European unity, but we don’t know what people are telling him.

People may be spinning to him that he’s done a great job — you know, that we’re all capitulating. He’s got a parade of European leaders coming and he’s trying to test them and see what they have to say. He’s looking for daylight between them, and then he’s making his own assessment.

Do you think the United States needs to squeeze Putin harder? To impose punishments now rather than waiting for some trigger to set off another round of sanctions?

That would be a mistake, to trigger off right now. It doesn’t work with just such crude messaging. You have to be able to show the cause and effect of sanctions when you put them on and off. Otherwise, the view then becomes, well, there’s nothing we can do anyway. Because the Russian point of view is that all the U.S. does is put sanctions on countries irrespective of what they do. We would just feed that narrative.

And we already are doing plenty of things. But if we put unilateral sanctions on, in advance of more action from Russia, we’ll have lost the allies. And Putin probably is banking on some of that.

Last night, I was at dinner with a European foreign minister and one of their under secretaries. And they were relating discussions that they’ve had with the Russians, where Putin’s told them bluntly that they can buy anyone they like in the United States or in Europe.

The Russians think that they can just outmaneuver the United States and all of the allies on sanctions and everything else. And they’ve been very successful at that, because they have lobbyists within our own systems who lobby for them. You can go down a long list of people who are on the board of Russian companies or do consulting for Russian companies.

Clearly, it’s always been for political leverage. And Putin explicitly says: I can buy anyone. I don’t, by the way, believe that he can, because I do know people who work with the Russians and maintain their integrity. But from Putin’s point of view, that’s very strong signaling.

You’ve sat it on meetings with Putin. Does he just kind of rant about his view of history?

He has his own rationality, and, in the past, he’s been much more measured. But I know a lot of people who’ve been through Moscow recently, and they’re saying the guy seems even more closed off to the news. We’re not really sure what kind of information he’s getting, and he seems more embittered. And is it the effect of Covid? Is it because he’s been stewing in his own juices for too long? We can’t really be sure what exactly he is thinking right now. You’ve got to hope that some saner voices are forcing a recalculation.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 19 Feb 2022 21:59

Biden Admn was completely clueless about rag tag Talibunnies. All knowing CIA and gung ho macho Army was left on the mercy of shoeless unwashed. And now they claim about knowing about war planning of Putin. Joke of our time.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 19 Feb 2022 22:22

^^^^
The Biden administration would be very happy to be proven wrong by President Putin. I don’t think being right about President Putin’s war plans will give President Biden any satisfaction whatsoever.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 20 Feb 2022 04:32

eklavya wrote:^^^^
The Biden administration would be very happy to be proven wrong by President Putin. I don’t think being right about President Putin’s war plans will give President Biden any satisfaction whatsoever.

This has nothing to do with being proven right or wrong. This is a classic case of Wag the Dog. Too much trouble at home. A stalled legislative agenda, soaring energy prices, high inflation, high current account deficit, weak economic growth for post pandemic recovery, and coming up next month a million dead from Covid mostly due to poor public health policy.

The US is one major crisis away from a failed state.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 20 Feb 2022 05:10

^^^^
Mort-ji, I’m not an expert on American domestic politics, but President Biden did not put those even one of the 150-200k Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders. The troops surrounding and threatening Ukraine answer only to President Putin.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 20 Feb 2022 05:58

eklavya wrote:^^^^
Mort-ji, I’m not an expert on American domestic politics, but President Biden did not put those even one of the 150-200k Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders. The troops surrounding and threatening Ukraine answer only to President Putin.

Those troops are on Russian territory and Belarus (with whom there is a strategic agreement). They are in their country and are doing military exercises. When done on the 20th, they start moving back.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 20 Feb 2022 06:07

^^^^
The indications on the ground are the opposite of what you have said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60448638

…. monitors reported a "dramatic increase" in attacks along the line dividing rebel and government forces in eastern Ukraine. There were more than 1,400 explosions in the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions on Saturday alone, monitors said.

Rebels in the self-declared people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk have ordered a mobilisation of all men of fighting age and urged other civilians to evacuate to Russia. The separatists claimed, without providing evidence, that Ukraine was planning to attack.

As reports of shelling continued, Germany and France became the latest Western countries to urge their citizens to leave Ukraine.

Russia has been holding military exercises in Belarus, close to the border with Ukraine. The drills followed a build-up of Russian troops - estimated by the US to be between 169,000 and 190,000, which includes rebels in eastern Ukraine - along Ukraine's borders.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said Russian forces were beginning to "uncoil and move closer" to the border with Ukraine.

In an earlier speech to the conference, US Vice-President Kamala Harris accused Moscow of trying to create a fake pretext for invading Ukraine and warned the consequences for Russia would be "severe and swift".

rags · Post by **rags** » 20 Feb 2022 07:34

Well now, the game and objectives are coming more into focus. So all the shenanigans is basically an attempt to subdue the Russian speaking breakaway territories in Donetsk.
Ukraine launches a campaign to clean out separatists which undoubtedly would bring Russian intervention.
Instead of the world seeing this as a Ukraine & NATO initiated crisis,
Biden Chacha insists that Russia is going to attack.
Well Ukraine will be the one attacking without which there would be no war. No wonder Zebra-sky sprinted to Munchen.
If I remember correctly, when Chamberlain gave away Czechoslovakia to Hitler, they did that in Munchen too without the Czechs being there. The principle being to never invite the bakra to the dining table.
This is all straight from the Paki/ Goebel playbook.
We have come a long way from Yeltsin’s drunken rants about NATO’s eastward expansion.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 20 Feb 2022 07:52

eklavya wrote:^^^^
Mort-ji, I’m not an expert on American domestic politics, but President Biden did not put those even one of the 150-200k Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders.

It is very clear to all that you are no expert on American anything. Be that as it may, Ukraine has amassed ~100K forces on their eastern border. They are armed to the teeth with American (my taxdollar paid) advanced weapons.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 20 Feb 2022 08:01

Many of us were on BRF when the US said there were WMDs in Iraq in 2003 and needed to neutralize it. Only the United Queendom and recent NATO eastern Eurotrash joined the US in Iraq, who failed miserably and ran from posts.

Now we are seeing the same - a self fulfilling prophecy by the BBC and CNN. Start a war and then claim the other guy attacked. Funny thing is that many in the American public can see through the crap this time around.

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Feb 2022 14:33

Mort Walker wrote:
eklavya wrote:^^^^
The Biden administration would be very happy to be proven wrong by President Putin. I don’t think being right about President Putin’s war plans will give President Biden any satisfaction whatsoever.
The US is one major crisis away from a failed state.

The US needs crisis situations to stay together.. remember common hatred can unify and polarize opinion. Their domestic issues as well as the UK s are too numerous to be fixed.. so this is the easiest way out. And better idea is to get someone to do the job for you.. and while you are at it get Europe to rearm and sell weapons...

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 20 Feb 2022 15:12

Please see below remarks made by Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, in Munich yesterday:

Speech by Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany and Member of the German Bundestag, at the Munich Security Conference

To put it plainly, there is nothing that justifies the deployment of well over 100,000 Russian soldiers surrounding Ukraine.

Russia is holding up the issue of Ukraine’s potential accession to NATO as a casus belli. That is a paradox – because there is no decision pending on the issue whatsoever.

We Europeans and the transatlantic community have warned Russia that military aggression against Ukraine would be a severe error.

We want this not to happen!

Russia has now disclosed its response to the proposals made by the US.

And I say that, yes, we are ready to negotiate.

In doing so, we will of course make a clear distinction between untenable demands and legitimate security interests. We must have the confidence to differentiate between the two, given everything that is at stake.

The fundamental principles enshrined by the OSCE are non-negotiable for us. Russia has agreed to them. And they include the right to freely choose one’s alliances.

At the same time, there are questions of security that are important for both sides. First and foremost transparency around weapons systems and exercises, risk mitigation mechanisms and new approaches to arms control.

At my meeting with President Putin on Tuesday, I made it clear that any further violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine will have a high price for Russia – in political, economic and geostrategic terms.

And at the same time I emphasised that diplomacy will not fail because of us.

As much diplomacy as possible, without being naive – that is what we strive for.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 20 Feb 2022 17:03

This is with respect classic smoke and mirrors. The Ukranian President only the other day spoke of his aim to get Nato membership as soon as possible and that it’s high on his agenda and in its constitution. So that is something that will happen soon and Russia is right to object and have concern about a military alliance solely devoted against it on its borders.

Unless of course you believe only US and Uk have security concerns and the rest must meekly agree

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 20 Feb 2022 19:37

^^^^
NATO has no intention of attacking Russia. Russia’s security and prosperity will however be hugely damaged if President Putin chooses to invade Ukraine.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 20 Feb 2022 19:46

Soon they’re all going to have to start asking themselves: was all this really worth it? Russia just wanted to be left alone in its own neighborhood. As they say in Texas, you f*ck with the bull, you get the horns.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 20 Feb 2022 19:57

Advisory for Indian citizens in Ukraine:

https://www.eoiukraine.gov.in/index.php

John · Post by **John** » 20 Feb 2022 21:03

Tanaji wrote:This is with respect classic smoke and mirrors. The Ukranian President only the other day spoke of his aim to get Nato membership as soon as possible and that it’s high on his agenda and in its constitution. So that is something that will happen soon and Russia is right to object and have concern about a military alliance solely devoted against it on its borders.

Unless of course you believe only US and Uk have security concerns and the rest must meekly agree

Before this most of NATO countries didn’t want Ukraine to be part of NATO, the country has little to offer in terms of resources to support it so US has to foot the bill and not to mention high levels of corruption makes anyone question allying with them. Even the measly US defensive aid to Ukraine was highly debated in Senate and House.

But this crises has changed that to neighboring Eastern European supporting or even calling for Ukraine in NATO, this will go down as one of biggest miscalculation in Putin’s career. It made NATO relevant and Europeans countries are spending on arms( lot of people in countries like Poland where questioning military spending & NATO), Ukraine is being showered with arms and $$ and Germany which was getting close to Russia is shifting back.

Putin gambit has been that he was hoping by deploying the forces he can get in negotiation table with western countries and offer to pull back if they agree to allow not let Ukraine into NATO. He was hoping US and Europe will go “sure we don’t really want Ukraine into NATO but we will agree ” He can then go back and claim a victory as man who stopped NATO. Putin can also show Ukraine no one will defend them where by boasting his image in Ukraine and use that to get his politicians elected in Ukraine.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 20 Feb 2022 22:06

eklavya wrote:^^^^
NATO has no intention of attacking Russia. Russia’s security and prosperity will however be hugely damaged if President Putin chooses to invade Ukraine.

May be not war, but definitely cut down the Russian size.
Putin has a choice - to get concrete concessions now or invade and pull back later to predefined positions. Or wait few more years and NATO and Ukraine starts slowly eating away the sovereignty of Russia. I know, our congi politicians would have done the latter, if they were in the same position. Putin knows the game well. We have always blamed Nehru for losing the Tibet as buffer. I doubt, putin will make that mistake.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 20 Feb 2022 22:10

NATO's European members will not get into war with Russia over Ukraine. So, Ukraine can forget NATO membership for sometime and wait until Russia is weaker.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 20 Feb 2022 23:05

OT, but the only waar Nato fights (with limited success) is claiming 2% of member's national GDP spend on the military hardware, which for the most part, rusts as mega waars become fewer and fewer. Thus you need more and more countries, else MIC will meltdown. Real power lies here...

(AP) EU chief: Russia could be cut off from markets, tech goods

MUNICH (AP) — Moscow would have its access to financial markets and high-tech goods limited under Western sanctions being prepared in case Russia attacks Ukraine, a top European Union official said Saturday.

The comments from Ursula von der Leyen, head of the EU’s Executive Commission, came as tensions over Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine intensified. U.S. President Joe Biden said Friday he was convinced” that Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade the neighboring country....