Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 23 Feb 2022 00:41

The US had to leave Ukraine, otherwise if US forces engage directly with the Russians, the US military establishment will push for retaliation. For over 60 years, people like Gen. Curtis Lemay and others like him have established the doctrine for nuclear war and annihilation of Russia.

John · Post by **John** » 23 Feb 2022 01:04

Before this or even before Putin speech Ukrainians we’re against any US or western forces in Ukraine now there is broad support and Putin is widely despised. Even pro Russian politicians in Ukraine supposedly backed by Putin are switching sides.

Putin single handedly removed any sphere of influence Russia might have had all but guaranteed Ukraine joining Western Europe. He also managed to get US goal of getting Germans to stop the pipeline and also wide Europeans sanctions on rich Russians. It is almost as if Putin is a working for CIA

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 23 Feb 2022 01:10

John: Putin single handedly removed any sphere of influence Russia might have had all but guaranteed Ukraine joining Western Europe. He also managed to get US goal of getting Germans to stop the pipeline and also wide Europeans sanctions on rich Russians. It is almost as if Putin is a working for CIA

Ukraine is already part of West Europe geographically and that won't change ever, but Ukraine is not part of NATO, which is the point of contention -- substituting "western europe" for NATO is dishonest sleight of hand, hopefully unintentional. NATO is a military alliance, which is the core problem.

Putin may be widely despised, but the claim that Russia could have done anything in the current situation to stop Ukraine from joining NATO is bollocks, as it is the explicit line from US and EU, "Russia cannot stop Ukraine from being part of NATO".

By creating these "breakaway republics" of Luhansk and Donetsk, Russia has created a buffer zone that is NATO-proof. From Russia's POV, this "crisis" is over, since creating a buffer zone out of a part of Ukraine was the only option left if Ukraine joining NATO was inevitable according to US and EU. Ukraine without Luhansk and Donetsk joining NATO will be acceptable to Russia, since NATO can never get into these buffer zones.

John · Post by **John** » 23 Feb 2022 01:22

By creating these "breakaway republics" of Luhansk and Donetsk, Russia has created a buffer zone that is NATO-proof. From Russia's POV, this "crisis" is over, since creating a buffer zone out of a part of Ukraine was the only option left if Ukraine joining NATO was inevitable according to US and EU. Ukraine without Luhansk and Donetsk joining NATO will be acceptable to Russia, since NATO can never get into these buffer zones.

Pre crises Who in the west wanted Ukraine to join NATO? every leader including Biden was against it (US/European public was opposed to it as well) and Ukrainians themselves opposed it as well. Even NATO statement in 08 opening that door was widely criticized by US sectarary openly. Now almost everyone seems to agree Ukraine must be allowed into NATO. Before this there was lot of grumbling in Europe about NATO (esp after Afghanistan), he single handedly made NATO relevant.

Will Putin invade Belarus next because Belarus might join NATO some times in future may be in next hundred or two hundred years..

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 23 Feb 2022 01:30

John: Pre crises Who in the west wanted Ukraine to join NATO? every leader including Biden was against it (US/European public was opposed to it as well) and Ukrainians themselves opposed it as well.

Getting Ukraine to Join NATO has been part of US plan for decades going back to Carter's administration and his NSA of the time, so "who in the west wanted this"? The US govt. and its State Dept. that's who.

Now almost everyone seems to agree Ukraine must be allowed into NATO. Before this there was lot of grumbling in Europe about NATO (esp after Afghanistan), he single handedly made NATO relevant.

Nothing of the sort -- enough links have been posted on this thread from 2014 that will demonstrate that the above is just blatant falsehood, starting from the orange revolution. You can have your own opinions but not your own facts.

Will Putin invade Belarus next because Belarus might join NATO some times in future..

Those who paid attention the past week know that Belarus and Russia have good relations, seeing as to how Belarus is hosting Russian newclear detergents and conducted exercises with them.

Russia has repeatedly stated for more than a decade that NATO on its borders is not acceptable. And here you are pretending like this is some new development.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 23 Feb 2022 01:58

rsingh wrote: You are going for overkill regarding Turky. Has nothing to do in Ukraina . Let's not Alibaba stories in the name of strategic soch- vichar. SALAM.

Kucchh tho padhiyega.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/worl ... rones.html

Feb. 3, 2022
KYIV, Ukraine — President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey agreed on Thursday to expand supplies of one of the Ukrainian Army’s most sophisticated weapons, a long-range, Turkish-made armed drone whose use in combat for the first time in Ukraine last fall infuriated Russian officials.

Mr. Erdogan’s decision to provide weapons and diplomatically back Ukraine was a public rebuke to Moscow and another complicating factor in the mix of cooperation and conflict between Turkey and Russia, historical rivals for supremacy in the region around the Black Sea.

The promise of more arms for Ukraine, especially an offensive weapon like the Turkish drone, is an extremely sensitive issue for Moscow, which claims that its security is threatened and that it has no choice but to mass troops on the Ukrainian border. The Ukrainians, while welcoming diplomatic support, have said that what they primarily need are more weapons to deter any attack.

The Turkish leader’s visit to Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, to announce the arms deal came as diplomatic dividing lines are being drawn in the crisis, with the United States, Britain and Eastern European nations sending weaponry to bolster Ukraine in the event of war with Russia. An American airlift of anti-tank missiles and small-arms ammunition continued Thursday with the arrival of a seventh cargo jet of weaponry to Kyiv.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-fr ... y-in-nato/

Can the Russia-Ukraine crisis offer an opportunity to re-anchor Turkey in NATO?
Kemal Kirişci Wednesday, February 16, 2022

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... ussia-wins
What if Russia Wins?
A Kremlin-Controlled Ukraine Would Transform Europe
By Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage
February 18, 2022

The shock of a big military move by Russia will likewise raise questions in Ankara. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey has been enjoying the venerable Cold War game of playing off the superpowers. Yet Turkey has a substantial relationship with Ukraine. As a NATO member, it will not benefit from the militarization of the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. Russian actions that destabilize the wider region could push Turkey back toward the United States, which could in turn drive a wedge between Ankara and Moscow. This would be good for NATO, and it would also open up greater possibilities for a U.S.-Turkish partnership in the Middle East. Rather than a nuisance, Turkey could turn into the ally it is supposed to be.

So actually, Turkey even today has a lot to do with Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-memb ... 022-02-22/

ANKARA, Feb 22 (Reuters) - When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his decision to recognise two breakaway regions in east Ukraine as independent, NATO member and Black Sea neighbour Turkey swiftly criticised the move, but stopped short of announcing any punitive measures.
...

Striking the balance Turkey employed for decades, Erdogan often highlights his friendship with Putin but has warned Russia against an invasion and offered to mediate the crisis. He has also criticised the West's handling of things as a hindrance to peace.
...

On Tuesday, Turkey called Russia's recognition of Ukraine's separatists an unacceptable violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity. Ergodan - who visited Kyiv this month - rejected it and called on parties to respect international laws, likely his sharpest language towards Moscow since a crisis over Turkey's downing of a Russian jet near Turkey's Syrian border in 2015.
...

While cooperating with Russia in energy and trade, Turkey has also sold sophisticated drones to Ukraine and inked a deal to co-produce more, angering Moscow.

Complicating diplomacy, Turkey opposes Russian policies in Syria and Libya even as it forges cooperation on the ground there. It also opposes Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, and its recognition of the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions in Georgia as independent

VULNERABLE LIRA

Russia supplied some 46% of Turkey's gas last year, and Ankara is looking to strike shorter-duration gas deals with Moscow to relieve import costs. Inflation has soared to near 50%, hurting Erdogan's poll standing, after the lira crash.

The currency slipped to its lowest since mid-January on concerns over economic fallout including for Turkey's tourism sector, for which Russians are the top arrivals.

Without elaborating, Erdogan has said Turkey will do what is necessary as a NATO member in the event of a Russian invasion.

The 1936 Montreux Convention gives Turkey control over the straits within its borders, and during peacetime guarantees access for civilian vessels to and from the Black Sea. It also limits access of naval warships, helping to protect the Black Sea from militarisation.

See this map from another source: under international treaties, Turkey if it wants can completely seal off Russian naval access to and from the Black Sea with its control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.

Can Kasapoglu, director of security and defence studies programme at EDAM, said Turkey had made clear it backs Ukraine. But a Russian troop buildup in the Black Sea should "really worry" it, especially the risk of a change of leadership in Ukraine, he said.

"In this case, defence technology cooperation with Turkey may be suspended, as Russia is uncomfortable with a NATO nation's defence technological and industrial base developing ties with the post-Soviet space," he said.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 23 Feb 2022 02:05

Turkey is hoping to extract rent from the southern gas pipelines that will replace NordStream2 -- Turkey needs some cash, and the US has sold the Qatar/Iraq/Turkey route as the EU alternative for NS2, so Turkey's stance is expected.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 23 Feb 2022 02:42

I see your point regarding Turkey. Thanks for explanation, my bad for previous post. But if there is war involving Russia, then paper tigers like Turkey count no where. Yes Turky has right to block the Bosphorus as 100 year ban finishes this year and NATO may try to block black sea fleet. But we are talking about Russia.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 23 Feb 2022 03:07

After decades of bullying warmaking and dominating and pushing, somebody finally pushed back. It's about time. Thank you Russia. You have just shown the world that US\western hegemony and the dubious social engineering that comes with it... need not be the inevitable path for humanity. There is another path that humanity can take, another world we can live in. Let India and take note; we can go our own way. Many countries can now decide if they're only option is surrendering to the western bloc. Maybe we don't all have to roll over and betray our proud civilizations to become part of thise "world community" (IOW "the west"). Maybe we can still preserve our traditions. I say the time has come for India to do a little pushing back of its own.

We must demand the US stop all aid to Pakistan that isn't strictly humanitarian and we must insist on regular auditing of this "aid" to ensure that non of it is redirected to the Paki military or terror groups in any way. Failure to abide by this will have unspecified grave consequences. And if the US dares to threaten CAATSA sanctions over our pending S400 purchase, that tells us all we need to know about the Americans as an ally. If they're going to sanction us, then we need to treat the US as the enemies they actually are.

Too many of you have become too enamored of the Americans. You're so dazzled that you're not seeing straight.

sohamn · Post by **sohamn** » 23 Feb 2022 04:07

Y. Kanan wrote:After decades of bullying warmaking and dominating and pushing, somebody finally pushed back. It's about time. Thank you Russia. You have just shown the world that US\western hegemony and the dubious social engineering that comes with it... need not be the inevitable path for humanity. There is another path that humanity can take, another world we can live in. Let India and take note; we can go our own way. Many countries can now decide if they're only option is surrendering to the western bloc. Maybe we don't all have to roll over and betray our proud civilizations to become part of thise "world community" (IOW "the west"). Maybe we can still preserve our traditions. I say the time has come for India to do a little pushing back of its own.

We must demand the US stop all aid to Pakistan that isn't strictly humanitarian and we must insist on regular auditing of this "aid" to ensure that non of it is redirected to the Paki military or terror groups in any way. Failure to abide by this will have unspecified grave consequences. And if the US dares to threaten CAATSA sanctions over our pending S400 purchase, that tells us all we need to know about the Americans as an ally. If they're going to sanction us, then we need to treat the US as the enemies they actually are.

Too many of you have become too enamored of the Americans. You're so dazzled that you're not seeing straight.

I don't know which variety you smoke, but India can't support a external aggression and territory takeover by force -> because that can justify China's action as well. If you are drinking the commie cool aid, then please note that Russia actually blamed the Ukraine shit on bolsheviks and lenin. While, Russia is right to be scared about Ukraine being part of NATO, it doesn't give it right to invade and land grab ukraine militarily.

Very soon, we won't be able to be aligned to Russia even if we want - As a China, Pakistan and Russia alliance is in the making. Our only way out is to minimize strategic dependency on Russia, build our own weapon systems and expand our sphere of influence.

One thing I will give to Putin, with a economy one third to that of India - I punches way above its weight. And the main reason is that they have half of the world militarily and fuel wise dependent on them. This dependency gives them the core advantage. If Russia would have half the world consume their weapons or if gas reserves got depleted, then no one would give a rats ass to them.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 23 Feb 2022 04:37

Not a great fan of Arnab Da shouting debate. But this debate was bit quiter and meaningfull. Truly international debate.
https://youtu.be/2BP6mKGLp-g

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 23 Feb 2022 04:43

India is a nobody in this fight IMO. All we can do is watch and try to avoid any fallout on us!

We are truly a world's country who can pick no sides - we have people everywhere and anywhere and depend on anybody and everybody!

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 23 Feb 2022 05:53

^^ we have nothing to gain and have no dog in this fight.

I hope our strategic planners take on a desi medium weight tank project on a war footing, no time for summer winter monsoon and lunar testing

Additional Rafael’s are also a must but after the UAE and Indonesia order that will take time

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 23 Feb 2022 06:04

Waters are muddied. This is an opportunity and a challenge.

though a wet dream, I'd rather India wait for a moment where china is stretched and (re-)occupy some territory across the north west to the north east of India.

Time to supply weapons to Philippines, Vietnam, Burma, Indonesia, etc. and ask them to start some action. If china is supporting russia, India should lobby massa to supply the weapons. If china is not supporting russia, then lobby russia to supply.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 23 Feb 2022 06:10

All these are wet dreams and GOI knows that. There goal still remains to make sure we are not disturbed while we are getting the house in order - we have a huge cleanup effort needed and under way. Our entire posture is geared towards that including surgical strikes and economic policies - leave us alone, let our people come to your country for jobs, free trade agreements where appropriate, build a robust domestic finance network reasonably resilient to western interference, improve internal security, protect data rights and alleviate poverty.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 23 Feb 2022 07:53

This situation in Ukraine (Russian military forces actually physically entering the Donbas region) presents India with enormous political / diplomatic problems. (Of course it presents other countries with problems too, but I am concerned about India here). Specifically, the problem is: What does India do now? What is its official position on this matter?

We cannot simply shrug our shoulders and say, "This problem must be solved by peaceful non-military means. Violence is not acceptable. Can't we all just get along, people? (Rodney King style)". It's too late for that now. That line of argument was fine and valid as long as Russia and NATO were simply sparring with each other verbally, but now it is physical.

It's all very well to say that Russia was justified because of its vital national interests, but the fact is that Ukraine is not the only country in the world with troublesome separatist-infested border regions. India has exactly the same problem. Any argument India uses now to justify Russia's actions will come back and bite us in the azs someday down the road if China uses military force to enter Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh. Of course we will fight back militarily if that happens, but the fact remains that we would want the full diplomatic and political backing of "the world" (i.e. the West) if that happens. We will not have that support if we now weasel out and support Russia verbally / diplomatically.

This Russian move has to be at least verbally condemned by India. I'm afraid I see no other way out.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 23 Feb 2022 08:13

Roop wrote: Snip......
This Russian move has to be at least verbally condemned by India. I'm afraid I see no other way out.

India must not speak out on this issue. Any sympathy I had for Ukraine evaporated when in 2014 the incumbent was forced out of power with 6 months of his term still remaining.

With active collusion from the United States of America.

What is happening is just the blowback of that event.

Let it be sorted out by all concerned parties with or without diplomacy.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 23 Feb 2022 09:08

sohamn wrote:
Y. Kanan wrote:After decades of bullying warmaking and dominating and pushing, somebody finally pushed back. It's about time. Thank you Russia. You have just shown the world that US\western hegemony and the dubious social engineering that comes with it... need not be the inevitable path for humanity. There is another path that humanity can take, another world we can live in. Let India and take note; we can go our own way. Many countries can now decide if they're only option is surrendering to the western bloc. Maybe we don't all have to roll over and betray our proud civilizations to become part of thise "world community" (IOW "the west"). Maybe we can still preserve our traditions. I say the time has come for India to do a little pushing back of its own.

We must demand the US stop all aid to Pakistan that isn't strictly humanitarian and we must insist on regular auditing of this "aid" to ensure that non of it is redirected to the Paki military or terror groups in any way. Failure to abide by this will have unspecified grave consequences. And if the US dares to threaten CAATSA sanctions over our pending S400 purchase, that tells us all we need to know about the Americans as an ally. If they're going to sanction us, then we need to treat the US as the enemies they actually are.

Too many of you have become too enamored of the Americans. You're so dazzled that you're not seeing straight.

I don't know which variety you smoke, but India can't support a external aggression and territory takeover by force -> because that can justify China's action as well. If you are drinking the commie cool aid, then please note that Russia actually blamed the Ukraine shit on bolsheviks and lenin. While, Russia is right to be scared about Ukraine being part of NATO, it doesn't give it right to invade and land grab ukraine militarily.

Very soon, we won't be able to be aligned to Russia even if we want - As a China, Pakistan and Russia alliance is in the making. Our only way out is to minimize strategic dependency on Russia, build our own weapon systems and expand our sphere of influence.

One thing I will give to Putin, with a economy one third to that of India - I punches way above its weight. And the main reason is that they have half of the world militarily and fuel wise dependent on them. This dependency gives them the core advantage. If Russia would have half the world consume their weapons or if gas reserves got depleted, then no one would give a rats ass to them.

You can make your points without insulting the other member or engaging in ad hominems. Please don't repeat this.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 23 Feb 2022 09:10

Roop wrote: This Russian move has to be at least verbally condemned by India. I'm afraid I see no other way out.

With most of our key weapons and joint programs from Russia, last thing we need to do is take an overt stance against them. They agreed to supply us the same at short notice despite the PRC impact. Let's not forget this.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 23 Feb 2022 09:16

Roop wrote: This Russian move has to be at least verbally condemned by India. I'm afraid I see no other way out.

On the contrary, there is no need for us to do anything, barring the usual diplomatic noises - e.g. regret the escalation, need diplomatic solution,
both sides must de-escalate etc. - as others do when we face problems of State sponsored terror.

If, hypothetically, India condemned Russia and then the Chinese attacked us in Ladakh. Does anyone seriously think NATO/ EU is going to sanction
China ? Much less rush military equipment and advisors to India ? On the contrary, we were and will be faced with CAATSA, if we try to defend ourselves. It can be argued that China is too big for NATO to threaten. However, neither NATO or the UN made a serious effort to sanction Pak, which is a far less significant country than Russia.

Our policy has to be based on Realpolitik. For e.g. We vote against Russia if you send Pak to the FATF blacklist. Or, we won't consider any Anti Russia step, as long as you threaten us with CAATSA. Or, see if Russia can immediately deliver a squadron worth of SU-30s CKDs, a couple of AWACS & Air refuellers, at the right price.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 23 Feb 2022 09:20

I'd say don't do anything. If someone wants us to say something, we need to ask (diplomatically of course), what do i get? (Please channel internal chandrababu naidu). In this case, ask for the country but not for yourself (may be not too much of chandrababu naidu).

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 23 Feb 2022 09:48

While the current situation presents problems for India (e.g. rising Oil prices), it is also an opportunity.

Not many are aware that Russia is a large and growing source of our gas - through the northern (Arctic sea route). The gas reserves of the Yamal-Nenets region are, for all practical purposes, inexhaustible. The price matches what we get from our other supplier Qatar.
In Oil too, India is a significant investor in new oil fields in Northern Russia.

If Russia is out of Dollar denominated trade, it is an opportunity for us to go back to Rupee-Rouble trade, without the misuse that characterised this trade earlier. We can gain significant market share not just in traditional areas like Pharma or tea, but in IT, or textiles.
If wheat prices increase with a global shortage, we can reduce our excess stocks through export.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 23 Feb 2022 09:50

The last thing we should do is base our decisions on what ‘west’ will think if we need to take some aggressive or defensive action on our borders in the future. If anything, this is the time to break free from such ideas which have chained us to a rock in the past. Taking no action and being a mute spectator is Chacha’s NAM policy and we know how that one ended. India should start taking cold calculated decisions to make use of a good crisis.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 23 Feb 2022 10:02

This crisis is of western making.

Only the western power's can solve it by recognising Russian interests and accomodating them in larger European security order.

If West keeps on attacking Russian interests then the consequences are on them, don't blame Russia.

srin · Post by **srin** » 23 Feb 2022 10:11

We do have a dog in this, but there is precious little we can do at this time.

Now, while I'm sure we can handle the tactical fallout - difficulty in CAATSA waivers, etc, this is a strategic setback for us. The threat to us is Russia becoming a Chinese poodle. With access to wealthy European markets cut off and CAATSA ensuring that the military exports are also significantly cut , it has to rely primarily on the Cheen. The price it'll have to pay is to be squeezed dry on military tech, and allow Chinese influence in Central Asia. And maybe pay for a BRI in Siberia, with Chinese labour (and friendly loan interest terms of course).

An erstwhile military superpower that post-conflict needs to rely on an upcoming superpower - this is UK-USA relationship redux. Our strategic interest lies in ensuring that this doesn't happen to Russia-China relationship.

I wish we had done something before it blew up. Reminds me of this Yes Minister segment

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 23 Feb 2022 15:19

John wrote:Before this or even before Putin speech Ukrainians we’re against any US or western forces in Ukraine now there is broad support and Putin is widely despised. Even pro Russian politicians in Ukraine supposedly backed by Putin are switching sides.

Putin single handedly removed any sphere of influence Russia might have had all but guaranteed Ukraine joining Western Europe. He also managed to get US goal of getting Germans to stop the pipeline and also wide Europeans sanctions on rich Russians. It is almost as if Putin is a working for CIA

I must say it is true, looks like Putin has taken a step too far. Crimea people could understand but his actions in Donbass have been stupid. He is loosing friends with the latest moves.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 23 Feb 2022 15:52

Aditya_V wrote:
I must say it is true, looks like Putin has taken a step too far. Crimea people could understand but his actions in Donbass have been stupid. He is loosing friends with the latest moves.

I believe Putin has been around for far too long and my opinion is that his latest move is an unnecessary escalation.
That said, I'm sure Putin/ Lavrov have a better grasp of geopolitics and Russia's options than this forum collectively has. Like China, they play for the long term and are most unlikely to plunge Russia into a war they wont win. Their military intervention worked in Georgia, Crimea, Syria, Mali (where their mercenaries have displaced France as the influential Western power) and the earlier fighting in Donetsk/Luhansk.

What friends has Russia lost with the latest move and what is the impact of that ?
Sanctions have been there since 2014. Paradoxically, sanctions led to the current situation, because there was a belief that sanctions would not get much worse if there was Russian intervention, while existing sanctions would not be lifted for `good behavior'.
Ukraine had been steadily violating the Minsk agreements and the ceasefire violations from the Ukraine army were increasing with a `wink and nod' from NATO. There is a OSCE monitoring mission which monitors the ceasefire and counts literally every shell fired and therefore who fired it. There was no way Russia was going to stay silent while civilians in Donetsk /Luhansk were being attacked. It's similar to India's need to react after Pulwama.
The Ukrainian govt has as much control over its army, as the Pak govt has over PA.

There are no easy options for Russia. What I think its trying to tell Ukraine is that their army will now officially be fighting the Russian army (not rebels with some Russian advisors embedded with them), so they might want to rethink ceasefire violations. Additionally, if Russia makes a push to liberate the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk districts (rebels control about 40% currently) the Ukrainian govt won't survive the loss of territory.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 23 Feb 2022 16:13

Deans,

I have read your post and you are bringing interesting points of discussion on the table.

I am trying to figure out the motivation of the US and Ukraine combination. Because, I have always been confused about US motivations during the coup of 2014. Why was US acting like the way it was. What was it's long term goal.

Was it to destroy remaining pro Russian constituency in Ukraine?

Was it to create a new bear trap for Russia in Ukraine?

Was it to fight a new Yugoslav succession war. But in Russian periphery?

The Georgian conflict of 2008 should have informed the west as to how Russia would respond. Yet, the Americans did what they did.

Given centuries of imperial Russian domination over such nation's. I would imagine that a sizeable pro Russian constituency exists, in both Ukraine and Georgia. Was the whole objective to damage this constituency beyond repair?

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 23 Feb 2022 16:27

Roop wrote: Of course we will fight back militarily if that happens, but the fact remains that we would want the full diplomatic and political backing of "the world" (i.e. the West) if that happens. We will not have that support if we now weasel out and support Russia verbally / diplomatically.

This Russian move has to be at least verbally condemned by India. I'm afraid I see no other way out.

I'm struggling to find a time when west whole heartedly supported India. They support India against China and support Pakistan against India. Russia has consistently veto-ed for us in UN.

So, I want Russia to remain as a strong bulwark against west. A strong Russia is in our interest.

West will support India if it is in their interest. They abandoned the nuclear sanctions against India promptly when it suited them.

Having said that, India has to do a very good balancing act here and not take any sides openly. How much ever west tries to arm twist India, India need to remain steady. I doubt west will push India too much, because they need us against China.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 23 Feb 2022 16:30

Pratyush wrote:Deans,

I have read your post and you are bringing interesting points of discussion on the table.

I am trying to figure out the motivation of the US and Ukraine combination. Because, I have always been confused about US motivations during the coup of 2014. Why was US acting like the way it was. What was it's long term goal.

Was it to destroy remaining pro Russian constituency in Ukraine?

Was it to create a new bear trap for Russia in Ukraine?

Was it to fight a new Yugoslav succession war. But in Russian periphery?

The Georgian conflict of 2008 should have informed the west as to how Russia would respond. Yet, the Americans did what they did.

Given centuries of imperial Russian domination over such nation's. I would imagine that a sizeable pro Russian constituency exists, in both Ukraine and Georgia. Was the whole objective to damage this constituency beyond repair?

US has been trying to sell their gas for a long time and this helps them wean EU from Russia. Also, US needs a familiar common enemy which they can show to their own people.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 23 Feb 2022 18:27

are the germans the only sane guys in this entire ukraine clusterf(uk

there is hardly any downside for the amerikis who are, as usual fighting wars far away from their homelands

why did biden run from afghanistan, if he was just going to get embroiled in another armed conflict so quickly

at the end of the day, body bags are just that, body bags, no matter from where they finally come home

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 23 Feb 2022 18:29

I think the German action will be temporary until this cools off.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 23 Feb 2022 18:37

vinod wrote:I think the German action will be temporary until this cools off.

the germans will not have anything to do with this if it escalates to a shooting match

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 23 Feb 2022 18:42

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 23 Feb 2022 20:23

chetak wrote:
vinod wrote:I think the German action will be temporary until this cools off.
the germans will not have anything to do with this if it escalates to a shooting match

The inflation is creeping up, economy is just recovering from.covid, and China will benefit massively. I doubt they can ignore cheap energy for a long time. Of course, it depends on the level of shooting that happens. Most likely, they will resume it once everything settles down and Russian threat seems not as big as it is made out to be. Russia will have to be calibrated in its action, if it needs to be the supplier again.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 23 Feb 2022 20:59

Russia has the buffer zone it needs, and new items say that Ukraine and Russia did a synchronized evacuation of the newly minted republics -- this shutsdown NS2 but NS1 is still operational. US now has to deliver alternate supplies to Germany in short order, else Germany may have to resume NS2 if such a thing is possible. Germany is the biggest loser economically in all this.

India is on its own, and no need to support any side, as they do not support us, rather the opposite. "I am on no one's side, as no one is on my side" as the wise old tree said.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 23 Feb 2022 21:14

Ukraine crisis: Donald Trump praises ‘genius’ Vladimir Putin, says Russia wouldn’t threaten Kyiv if he was in power
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/ ... putin-says
23 Feb 2022

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 23 Feb 2022 21:15

Take a look at the map embedded in the right margin of Euromaidan occupied regional offices. If this is what the international boundaries eventually look like, there is a long slog ahead.

Revolution of Dignity

srin · Post by **srin** » 23 Feb 2022 21:21

srikandan wrote:Russia has the buffer zone it needs

There is a long direct Russia Ukraine border running diagonally North-west to South-East between South of Belarus and North of Luhansk. So, a future possibly NATO'ized Ukraine still has contiguous border with Russia.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 23 Feb 2022 21:47

https://blogs.uni-bremen.de/impulse/fil ... 0218-1.jpg

There is a long direct Russia Ukraine border running diagonally North-west to South-East between South of Belarus and North of Luhansk. So, a future possibly NATO'ized Ukraine still has contiguous border with Russia.

Which is why military exercises were conducted in Belarus with detergent included, this past week.