Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 23 Feb 2022 22:04

What happens if the rebel regions now expand their borders into Ukraine?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 24 Feb 2022 00:26

‘Independent and balanced’: Russia welcomes Indian stand on Ukraine crisis

NEW DELHI: Russia welcomes India’s “independent and balanced” approach to global affairs, including the situation in Ukraine, and the fallout of the crisis won’t impact bilateral cooperation in areas such as defence, Russian chargé d’affaires Roman Babushkin said on Wednesday.

Babushkin, the senior-most Russian diplomat in New Delhi as the new envoy is yet to present his credentials, told a virtual briefing on the Ukraine crisis that the India-Russia strategic partnership is based on mutual trust and respect and both sides take each other’s concerns “very seriously”. Both countries also don’t “interfere in domestic affairs”.
“We welcome the independent position India has taken in the UN Security Council twice already [and] which was expressed openly by the Indian external affairs minister and other officials,” Babushkin said, referring to statements made by the Indian side at two Security Council meetings on the Ukraine crisis.
India, as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, is playing the “vital role of a responsible global power”, and has adopted an “independent and balanced approach to global affairs”, he said.

achy · Post by **achy** » 24 Feb 2022 00:52

Why US/West is so interested in Ukraine? What is it trying to do long term? I think US/West goal is to create a permanent nuisance to Russia. Like "Pakistan or Taiwan". This will permanently keep Russia hemmed in by trying to flare up tension time to time. Russia, otoh, perhaps wants to stretch its boundary till Baltic Sea which probably forms a natural border. Also historically this is where the borders stabilized between Western and Eastern church. It will also aim to keep key states of west like Germany dependent on it for vital inputs like energy to safeguard itself from any possible western aggression.. Baltic Sea access is important for Russia as the black sea route will always be contested and unstable route. All this will only happen if the current western order will collapse. Looking into crystal ball, Russia has luxury to wait out in this game as its primary energy consumer will be in Asia i.e. China and India. It can supply China thru land/sea and India thru sea. West, otoh, has to act quickly to contain China while keeping Russia hemmed in. Russia is security problem but China is even more grave "leadership of the world problem".

If we see the issue through this lens then I think India's options will be little bit more clearer. While America can take care of Pacific for foreseeable future, It has no other viable partner other then India to contain china in Indian Ocean. But this will be only viable if India comes up to the strength as expected. In such case India can not jeopardize its relations with Russia and west will have to grin and bear if they want their primary objective to be fulfilled. Also, Russia will not want China to be unquestioned numero uno as that will not serve its long term goal as well. They would rather prefer a multi polar world where they will be one of the equals. Hence, we may see tactical alliance of Russia and China now and then but it is never going to be strategic enough to last. In such a scenario, India's only response can be : " to ask the ukraine crisis to be resolved thru diplomatic means"... India knows this medicine very well and perhaps by now it has learnt to administer it as well.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Feb 2022 01:11

Watch out. BIF are starting their skewed reporting on India's reaction.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Feb 2022 01:36

Achy good post.

Try to do a simple matrix.
First row: Country: Economic :Military: Political :Comment
US
RUSSIA
CHINA
EU
INDIA

Put a + or - in each column for the countries and rationale in comments.
You can give ++ or -- based on your assessment of that column.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 24 Feb 2022 01:42

Achy, I echo Ramana-ji...Good Post Indeed.

achy · Post by **achy** » 24 Feb 2022 02:02

Thanks Ramana. Will try to do.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 24 Feb 2022 05:00

Pratyush, Karan M, Deans and Vinod:

Thank you all for your replies to my post. For India now to stay neutral/non-committal and not take sides would be great if we are allowed to get away with it, I just don't know how long we can do that without facing huge pressure from the West. We shall see.

In any case, I must stress that I feel zero sympathy for the Ukies -- they seem to be almost like the Pakis of Eastern Europe, troublemakers from the word "Go". I do almost feel sympathy for Russia, but I don't know how much this neutral stance will cost us. Again, we shall see.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Feb 2022 05:17

US MSM has gone apoplectic and saying it is just a matter of a day or so before full scale invasion of all of Ukraine. What is happening now is that a peace keeping force is moving in to keep the Uknazis with US support from killing more civilians.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 24 Feb 2022 05:34

srikandan wrote: Which is why military exercises were conducted in Belarus with detergent included, this past week.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kali ... Europe.svg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_Oblast#/map/0

Another interesting geographic feature to look at is the Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia.

In July 2007, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov declared that if US-controlled missile defense systems were deployed in Poland, then nuclear weapons might be deployed in Kaliningrad. On November 5, 2008, Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev said that installing missiles in Kaliningrad was almost a certainty.[41] These plans were suspended in January 2009,[42] but implemented in October 2016.[43] In 2011, a long range Voronezh radar was commissioned to monitor missile launches within about 6,000 km (3,700 mi). It is situated in the settlement of Pionersky (formerly German Neukuhren) in Kaliningrad Oblast.[44]

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Feb 2022 06:02

Kaliningrad was historically part of the Prussian Republic dating back to pre 1870. It eventually became part of the German empire from 1871 to the end of WWI. The Soviets took over after 1945 after they pushed out and exterminated the Germans. Ethnically it almost entirely Russian now.

In 1939, when Poland was invaded both Germany and the USSR invaded simultaneously. The British were dishonest in going to war with just Germany and should have declared war on the USSR too. They won't admit it in their documentaries, just like the genocide the Brits committed in Bengal from 1941-1945.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 24 Feb 2022 06:05

Dantzig was a bone of contention. IIRC.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 24 Feb 2022 07:41

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1 ... 3359356932

Clearly, China totally understands the concept of territorial integrity, as it demonstrates to all its neighbours on a regular basis. What a genius, this antony blinken.

I spoke with People's Republic of China State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. I underscored the need to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 24 Feb 2022 08:06

The Russian Armed Forces have declared a “No-Fly Zone” for all civil aviation encompassing the airspace along the northeastern border with Ukraine.

https://safeairspace.net/

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 24 Feb 2022 08:14

^^^ The apoplexy is always carefully calibrated.

The finest apoplexy is distilled in The Economist. If I cared to to, I would take a glance. But really, it’s the same dog and pony show.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 24 Feb 2022 08:22

I really hope India's leaders can withstand the political pressure from our naive young generation so enamored of the US and raised on a diet of western liberal news and social engineering. We need to stay firmly neutral and must not let ourselves be pressured into backing the US bloc.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 24 Feb 2022 08:25

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 Feb 2022 08:46

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1496682574189838337

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... E0BYQ&s=19

Looks Russia declared 'Military Operation'

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 24 Feb 2022 09:03

So it begins…

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 09:04

SwamyG wrote:https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1496682574189838337

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... E0BYQ&s=19

Looks Russia declared 'Military Operation'

I know people here who were claiming west was making up whole invasion angle was proved wrong, truth is Putin was hoping for quick attack using false flag attack as excuse but leaked Intel basically threw him in back foot. He can still go ahead or back off and look weak.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 24 Feb 2022 09:10

putin adressing

srin · Post by **srin** » 24 Feb 2022 09:24

The words matter. They have declared military operation in Ukraine, not in new "republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk.
This is war on Ukraine mainland.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 24 Feb 2022 09:37

regime change? What is end goal. Very confusing. Just going after E Ukraine wont help them. But going after regime wont help them either. Just not sure what Putin is trying to do or what is end goal or what the trigger is or why now and why in Ukraine. Its not going to be easy either if it moves to urban land and becomes an urban war.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 24 Feb 2022 09:38

Wion LIVE : Russia Ukraine Conflict Live Updates | Latest Updates | Russia Ukraine Tensions Live

Extremely better coverage than RT. Didn't think it was going to happen but mad guy Putin really did it

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 24 Feb 2022 09:42

It is amusing to see all the pro-american crowd pretend that the US did not start this fire -- if USA did not push NATO to Russia's borders, this invasion would not have occurred. The warmongering Americans are responsible for this, even if they and their buddies pretend otherwise.

Putin's russia is supposed to roll over and die when the US/NATO moves nukes to Ukraine down the line is it? very droll. This very thread shows that USA deliberately raising the temperature over the past two weeks, when Russian tanks have been on the border for 6 months. A bunch of warmongring mofos who left a billion $ worth of war weapons in the hands of the taliban, perhaps deliberately, have now arrived to save the planet from the clutches of Putin, apparently.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 24 Feb 2022 09:44

It’s on. Twitter is going bonkers over purported Russian actions - airport attacks and seizures* and the like. We’re in the fog of war now, but it does at least seem like full scale war.

* - of the capital city, no less. So it doesn’t seem restricted to only the Russian controlled areas in eastern Ukraine.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 09:45

vijaykarthik wrote:regime change? What is end goal. Very confusing. Just going after E Ukraine wont help them. But going after regime wont help them either. Just not sure what Putin is trying to do or what is end goal or what the trigger is or why now and why in Ukraine. Its not going to be easy either if it moves to urban land and becomes an urban war.

He got out played badly there is some speculation his inner circle leaked Intel to the west so set him up for a fall (notice how some of his inner circle weren’t sanctioned). Original plan was I suspect launch false flag attack in regions and then use that as basis for an invasion. With US leaking that Intel coupled with separatists were so amateurs that those false attacks were ridiculed because they were obviously can see they were poorly PSed. That delayed his invasion plans by couple weeks and he cannot back down and look weak.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 24 Feb 2022 09:45

How can Russia really expect to pull off such a wide-ranging offensive? Unless they’re capabilities have gotten dramatically better than what we’ve seen up to this point in Syria and elsewhere, they’re overextending themselves.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 09:46

srikandan wrote:It is amusing to see all the pro-american crowd pretend that the US did not start this fire -- if USA did not push NATO to Russia's borders, this invasion would not have occurred. The warmongering Americans are responsible for this, even if they and their buddies pretend otherwise.

Putin's russia is supposed to roll over and die when the US/NATO moves nukes to Ukraine down the line is it? very droll.

It has nothing to do with NATO but rather masking his economic failures he needs Russians to band around something.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 24 Feb 2022 09:46

Mort Walker wrote:US MSM has gone apoplectic and saying it is just a matter of a day or so before full scale invasion of all of Ukraine.

Well, the "apopelepcy" has turned into a true prophecy now. Only the "not news" Fox and other white Christian nationalist, anti Hindu, outlets are still drinking the kool aid that Russia means no harm.

Mort Walker wrote: What is happening now is that a peace keeping force is moving in to keep the Uknazis with US support from killing more civilians.

Comon, Mort Ji. Peace keeping force?

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 24 Feb 2022 09:48

António Guterres, meanwhile says, "This war will have consequences for Europe not seen since the volcanic eruptions"

OTOH Ukraine ambassador to UN was almost about to cry on live TV. Have to say it's all fun and games until the war actually starts.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 24 Feb 2022 09:52

John: It has nothing to do with NATO but rather masking his economic failures he needs Russians to band around something.

Whatever you say. One could make the same argument about the US president playing "wag the dog" to distract from his poor ratings and 40-year high inflation. Anyone can make such claims that do not need data or critical thinking.

Russia was on track to get more economically engaged with Europe, and US officials have gone on record stating that is not acceptable.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 24 Feb 2022 09:52

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 24 Feb 2022 09:54

Jay wrote: Only the "not news" Fox and other white Christian nationalist, anti Hindu, outlets are still drinking the kool aid that Russia means no harm.

You mean,

there are "pro hindu" outlets?
and they are saying russia means harm?

Are there any references?

If not, why drag hindus here?

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 24 Feb 2022 09:55

Very emotional and touching, especially how Joe and Jill are praying very hard for the people of Ukraine after pushing them into war with Russia. They should make a hollywood movie out of this.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 09:55

srikandan wrote:
John: It has nothing to do with NATO but rather masking his economic failures he needs Russians to band around something.
Whatever you say. One could make the same argument about the US president playing "wag the dog" to distract from his poor ratings and 40-year high inflation.

Russia was on track to get more economically engaged with Europe, and US officials have gone on record stating that is not acceptable.

Not really Biden was weak on Russia before (allowed pipeline to go ahead inspite of heavy criticism) and opened the door for weakening of sanctions. I pointed out before that will backfire and here we are. I believe those moves gave Putin some confidence thinking he can get away.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 24 Feb 2022 09:57

I feel this is not good for India. Russia is our biggest arms supplier and now they will be decisively blockaded from supplying spares to us.

What is Putin trying to achieve here with Operation Reverse Barbarossa anyway?

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 24 Feb 2022 09:59

John: Not really Biden was weak on Russia before (allowed pipeline to go ahead inspite of heavy criticism) and opened the door for weakening of sanctions. I believe that gave Putin some confidence thinking he can get away.

"get away" with doing business with EU? So Biden was weak for not allowing Russia to sell gas to Germany? And you say the USA is not the warmonger here?

Russia has as much right to do business in its neighbourhood as the USA does, and here you are claiming that a gas pipeline to heat EU homes in winter is something to be stopped? why?

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 24 Feb 2022 09:59

Twitter feed:

Conflict News
@Conflicts
BREAKING: Russian President Putin - "We decided to launch a special military action [...] aimed at demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine."

True definition of strategic autonomy given below:

PUTIN: "To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me."
10:01 PM · Feb 23, 2022·TweetDeck

Conflict News
@Conflicts
·
55m
RUSSIAN STRIKES:

Cities so far targeted include
- Kyiv
- Odesa
- Kharkiv
- Mykolai
- Mariupol

Conflict News
@Conflicts
·
28m
UKRAINE: Interior Ministry confirms that Kyiv is under attack from cruise and ballistic missiles. -
@KevinRothrock

BREAKING: Russian troops have landed in Odesa and are crossing the border into Kharkiv, according to Anton Herashchenko, advisor to Ukraine’s Ministry of Interior. -
@MattMcBradley

Conflict News
@Conflicts
·
1m
BREAKING: Ukraine announces the imposition of martial law following the beginning of Russian invasion.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 09:59

Shaktimaan wrote:I feel this is not good for India. Russia is our biggest arms supplier and now they will be decisively blockaded from supplying spares to us.

What is Putin trying to achieve here with Operation Reverse Barbarossa anyway?

Sadly we are looking at 2 bill write off on Tushil and Tamala Frigates one of dumbest move we could have possibly have made and we did. See my post in naval discussion thread.