Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 25 Feb 2022 03:53

Rudradev wrote:The Ukrainian leadership began to believe that they were in the "inner circle" of the bear-baiting club (even despite not being in NATO). They allowed themselves to become the frontline instrument of bear baiting. And now the Ukrainian people are paying the price.

I don't believe India's (current) leadership is stupid enough to be the Ukraine of the QUAD. But I am grateful that once again, the US & NATO have given us a preview of how they treat their "less than equal" allies as condoms.

You’re correct; the Indian leadership isn’t that stupid, but plenty of people on this forum are. These are the same kind of people who were clamoring for India to join the Americans’ Iraqi adventure back in 2003, saying we need to send troops and prove ourselves a worthy ally. I’m glad the naive crowd didn’t get their way then, and I hope they don’t get their way now…

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Feb 2022 04:14

chanakyaa wrote:if it is true, closer to Chernihiv means Kyiv could feel the heat within 24 hours. Will Dnieper river be the new LOC?

https://southfront.org/ukraine-results- ... on-videos/

Donbas is too small region. However Coal and Steel profits are key in that region.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 25 Feb 2022 04:41

This is brilliant talk on why this is a west's mess. Very old video from 2015. Must watch for anyone who wants to understand the Ukraine crisis

achy · Post by **achy** » 25 Feb 2022 04:43

[quote="srikandan"] G2 is all about China being the biggest dog and US ally in Asia, so pushing Russia into the arms of China would take the US one step towards that goal. Regardless, China will now be emboldened to take on India, as everyone here has already pointed out. [/quote]

G2 is day dream of sino paid lifafa think tanks in USA. It is a fundamentally flawed concept. What does US get if it leaves asia to China? All it will do is to facilitate China's unabated rise albeit at faster pace. And they will become the top dog much before current projection implies. Seems like a stupid bargain for the US.

US basic containment strategy is to slow china's growth and push it towards demographic cliff before it attains capability to shape new world order. how does G2 strategy fit in this or in any other scheme ?

G2 is DOA...

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 25 Feb 2022 04:46

anupmisra wrote:
hanumadu wrote:I see parallels between Ukraine/NATO and SriLanka/China.

Interesting comparison. By extension, would India invade Sri Lanka (and Bangladesh) to prevent them from falling into the Chini-trap?

Sri Lanka already let China have a large presence in their country but India did not invade them. India will eventually get as big as or bigger than China and Sri Lanka will found India more beneficial. Bangladesh, I think would eventually become another Pakistan even without China. At some point of time we will have to deal with Pakistan and Bangladesh much more harshly than we are doing now.

In Russia's case, it is a declining power. The pressure on them will continue to grow from USA only balanced by USA's relative loss power with the rest of the world. Russia will just have to hold out long enough till the west and by extension NATO becomes irrelevant.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Feb 2022 04:58

-what advantage does Chernobyl give to Ru?
-claims & counter claims of some attack repelled
(however Ru not using even 10% of amassed troops)
-videos of fighter jets and helis shot down

however other claims that Ru has a plan in place and avoiding direct confrontation.
Whats the endpoint in Putin's mind? regime change? dividing Ukr? Is it worth the heavy crippling sanction?

-again claims and counter claims that sanctions will hit Europe also.
-US wants SWIFT sanction, Germany, Italy not ready.
-India being contacted by Ukr, US & Russia (pivotal role or just formality?)
https://twitter.com/DrSJaishankar/statu ... 9SwxAX1oxg
https://twitter.com/DrSJaishankar/statu ... 9SwxAX1oxg

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Feb 2022 05:03

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... 9SwxAX1oxg

this video doing rounds however Ukr claims attack repelled and Antonov airport back in their control

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 25 Feb 2022 05:07

Vlad has been gaming this for a long time. Roos has $630B in foreign reserve while GDP of 1.5T. He knows west doesn't have an appetite for a hard sanctions because of 2 years of pandemic and Western economy still in recovery.

John · Post by **John** » 25 Feb 2022 05:08

Russians have taken snake island per BBC

Russian attempt to take the Airport went terribly wrong lost 2 Ka-52 along with many other helos and dozens of special forces.

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/14 ... cHmqhxwDwQ

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Feb 2022 05:10

woke anti war crowd allegedely in Moscow (and we are told any voice of dissent is cyanided instantly in Ru)

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 25 Feb 2022 05:10

Tweet

Paul McLeary
@paulmcleary
New Pentagon assessment is that Russia has fired around 160 ballistic missiles into Ukraine since the invasion kicked off
3:31 PM · Feb 24, 2022·Twitter Web App

Plus numerous air launched KH-101 and KH-55 cruise missiles.

That is 160 ballistic missiles plus additional number of cruise missiles in the first 24 hours or less targeting all major Ukrainian cities. This is a lesson for India in the event of a large scale India China war. China's inventory of ballistic missiles is at least as large as Russia. That Indian Rocket Force better be accelerated asap.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Feb 2022 05:12

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... side-kyiv/ Russian troops capture Antonov airport outside Kyiv

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 25 Feb 2022 05:14

anupmisra: Why does this invasion sound more like it is preapproved/staged and the west is willing to live with the consequence of the post-invasion?

Tulsi Gabbard seems to agree.

Tulsi Gabbard TulsiGabbard
Warmongers have got what they wanted: firmly establish new Cold War, guaranteed trillion$ for the Power Elite (including military industrial security complex and mainstream media).

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 25 Feb 2022 05:31

The simple way to avoid this was for the US to agree to the Russian request that Ukraine be declared a neutral country so that neither side would draw it into a security alliance nor place offensive weapons on it's soil. That was the exact status that Finland and Austria had during the Cold War. The US refused to give such an undertaking and hence this invasion.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 25 Feb 2022 05:33

IndraD wrote:https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... side-kyiv/ Russian troops capture Antonov airport outside Kyiv

It has been recaptured back by Ukrainian forces

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Feb 2022 05:44

chernobyl taken over by Ru forces. Remove sacrophagus and radiation will destroy Europe for 100s of yrs

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 25 Feb 2022 05:57

Anant wrote:https://news.rediff.com/commentary/2022 ... 32efb7026a

Some reporter asked Biden whether he had spoken to the Indian govt. He said that they'd reach out today.

That was a stupid question.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 25 Feb 2022 06:02

SwamyG wrote: Donbas is too small region. However Coal and Steel profits are key in that region.

Kharkiv is the factory of Ukraine.

AkshaySG · Post by **AkshaySG** » 25 Feb 2022 06:03

ldev wrote:The simple way to avoid this was for the US to agree to the Russian request that Ukraine be declared a neutral country so that neither side would draw it into a security alliance nor place offensive weapons on it's soil. That was the exact status that Finland and Austria had during the Cold War. The US refused to give such an undertaking and hence this invasion.

Based on the last reports before things escalated Russia/Putin were asking for a lot more than simply letting Ukraine be neutral.

Russia knew they were asking for a lot more than NATO/US would agree to and they knew that it would lead to this, They had gamed this perfectly.

One of the more widely reported demands was that countries that signed onto NATO post 1998 like Bulgaria, Romania be considered neutral which was never going to happen.

In the immediate term there was no real way the US/NATO could have simply agreed to all of Russia's demands without destroying whatever shred of credibility they still had.

Biden Admin and the US State Dept. would much rather Russia carry out the invasion which allows them to paint Putin as the source of all evil, supply arms to Europe and carry on imposing sanctions with mostly partisan approval than be seen backing down to all of Putin's demands.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 25 Feb 2022 06:06

Vayutuvan wrote:
SwamyG wrote: Donbas is too small region. However Coal and Steel profits are key in that region.
Kharkiv is the factory of Ukraine.

The goal would be to draw a line from kharkiv to Dnipro and take everything east of the Dniper river. This will secure crimea and get a strangle hold on what remains of Ukraine

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 25 Feb 2022 06:30

Atmavik wrote: The goal would be to draw a line from kharkiv to Dnipro and take everything east of the Dniper river. This will secure crimea and get a strangle hold on what remains of Ukraine

true. But that is a large area to hold. even for russians (?)

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 25 Feb 2022 06:33

AkshaySG wrote:One of the more widely reported demands was that countries that signed onto NATO post 1998 like Bulgaria, Romania be considered neutral which was never going to happen.

Was it Bulgaria and Romania or more like the three baltic countries? They are at a strategic location as far as NS 1 and 2 are concerned.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 25 Feb 2022 06:37

vinod wrote:
IndraD wrote:https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... side-kyiv/ Russian troops capture Antonov airport outside Kyiv
It has been recaptured back by Ukrainian forces

https://www.businessinsider.in/internat ... 811934.cms

An advisor to the Ukrainian president, after initially declaring that Ukraine had repelled the Russians prematurely, announced on Facebook that "Hostomel Airport is ours" and that the "Russian paratroopers have been destroyed." The exact status of the airfield has not been independently confirmed.

According to many outlets, fighting is ongoing at the airport.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 25 Feb 2022 06:54

A wild thought on the Part of End Game: Thinking on a completely different line about population numbers. Russian population is approximately 145 million, and population of Russian speaking Ukrainians is approx. 14 million? If the numbers are anywhere close, it is approx. 9%-10% of Russian pop. What if mass numbers of people (I mean millions) in the east become Russ citizens. That would increase the population, which Russ need desperately compared to its land mass. It took 10 years to grow Russ pop by approx. 2 million (2010-2020) and current growth rate is negative. What if you could add 5 million? think Russ speaking pop would take the offer, while staying in the separatist region (technically not leaving Ukie land)?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 25 Feb 2022 07:08

Cain Marko wrote:The only way the US comes out on top in this fracas is if it lures the Chinese away with a G2 settlement. India better watch it's back.

That has been the implied assumption since 2014 and the fingering of Russia.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 25 Feb 2022 07:08

IndraD wrote: woke anti war crowd allegedely in Moscow (and we are told any voice of dissent is cyanided instantly in Ru)

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 839ef77b9f

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 25 Feb 2022 07:14

Thakur_B wrote:
vinod wrote: It has been recaptured back by Ukrainian forces
https://www.businessinsider.in/internat ... 811934.cms

An advisor to the Ukrainian president, after initially declaring that Ukraine had repelled the Russians prematurely, announced on Facebook that "Hostomel Airport is ours" and that the "Russian paratroopers have been destroyed." The exact status of the airfield has not been independently confirmed.
According to many outlets, fighting is ongoing at the airport.

Sorry to say missing some of the BRF members whose day to day to analysis and "ground reporting " solely missed here , instead copious volume of thesis and anti thesis . Yes Thakur Saab the situation is very fluid , controlling a logistic airport have its own merits but some of the attacks were diversionary as they were from multiple fronts , capture of Chernobylis more strategic , shortest route to keiv from Belarus and also bargaining chip with risk of radioactive fallouts .

pravula · Post by **pravula** » 25 Feb 2022 07:25

Jay wrote:
IndraD wrote: woke anti war crowd allegedely in Moscow (and we are told any voice of dissent is cyanided instantly in Ru)
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 839ef77b9f

from above ^^^ lol...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Feb 2022 07:31

Russia legalizes crypto-currency per NYT

So the US will be forced to attack it.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 25 Feb 2022 07:58

Well that's a half decent way to circumvent SWIFT. Russians seem to have wargamed all sanctions scenario well in advance.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 25 Feb 2022 08:13

chanakyaa wrote:What if mass numbers of people (I mean millions) in the east become Russ citizens. That would increase the population, which Russ need desperately compared to its land mass. It took 10 years to grow Russ pop by approx. 2 million (2010-2020) and current growth rate is negative. What if you could add 5 million? think Russ speaking pop would take the offer, while staying in the separatist region (technically not leaving Ukie land)?

This is already the case. Most of them are de-facto Russian citizens.
Why some Ukranians accept Russian citizenship

Might be a model for India if the CAA is shelved.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 25 Feb 2022 08:22

Any reason why the RT.com can't be accessed?
Is bharat sarkar under unkil's influence?

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Feb 2022 08:26

Kati wrote:Any reason why the RT.com can't be accessed?
Is bharat sarkar under unkil's influence?

I can access it just fine from India.

John · Post by **John** » 25 Feb 2022 08:26

Looks like a bomber got taken out supposedly this too big to be Su-34 and some speculation it is Tu-160 (or may be a Tu-95 )

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1 ... EYAa2j6ZBw

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/sta ... AhrnJqP-Xg

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 25 Feb 2022 08:31

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Anant wrote:
And we'll just sit here and eat their warheads. Tots.
Yes you will, your THAAD isn't capable of intercepting maneuvering MIRVs.

That's why despite much superior bigger navy you aren't able to declare war on Russia.

You only attack weak small nations like iraq when they invade Kuwait, like a coward bully you pick on small and weak. Now Putin's Russia has invaded Ukraine so come on attack Russia just like you attacked Iraq!

Show some spine!

Mods, what happened to the B in BRF? What nonsense is this?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 25 Feb 2022 08:32

John wrote:Looks like a bomber got taken out supposedly this too big to be Su-34 and some speculation it is Tu-160 (or may be a Tu-95 )

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1 ... EYAa2j6ZBw

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/sta ... AhrnJqP-Xg

Why do those planes have to penetrate Ukrainian airspace so deep.

The transport fleet trying to move following forces is a separate issue.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 25 Feb 2022 08:34

chanakyaa wrote:A wild thought on the Part of End Game: Thinking on a completely different line about population numbers. Russian population is approximately 145 million, and population of Russian speaking Ukrainians is approx. 14 million? If the numbers are anywhere close, it is approx. 9%-10% of Russian pop. What if mass numbers of people (I mean millions) in the east become Russ citizens. That would increase the population, which Russ need desperately compared to its land mass. It took 10 years to grow Russ pop by approx. 2 million (2010-2020) and current growth rate is negative. What if you could add 5 million? think Russ speaking pop would take the offer, while staying in the separatist region (technically not leaving Ukie land)?

Not all native Russian speaking people in Ukraine are Russians. According to wikipedia, 29.6% are native Russian speakers but only 17.3% are ethnic Russians. Still a large number though.

John · Post by **John** » 25 Feb 2022 08:37

Apparently it was just single AC flying so not sure may be it was Tu-95 or Tu-160 doing a bombing run? Explosion definitely indicates it had a payload.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Feb 2022 08:37

John wrote:Looks like a bomber got taken out supposedly this too big to be Su-34 and some speculation it is Tu-160 (or may be a Tu-95 )

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1 ... EYAa2j6ZBw

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/sta ... AhrnJqP-Xg

Seriously? One must at least use the sniff test before posting such articles. Why would Russia use a strategic supersonic bomber that they literally have around 16 in number for operations where there is no strategic need? I understand your sympathy is with Ukraine but let’s not post Paki level of propaganda

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Feb 2022 08:41

Tanaji wrote:
John wrote:Looks like a bomber got taken out supposedly this too big to be Su-34 and some speculation it is Tu-160 (or may be a Tu-95 )

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1 ... EYAa2j6ZBw

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/sta ... AhrnJqP-Xg

Seriously? One must at least use the sniff test before posting such articles. Why would Russia use a strategic supersonic bomber that they literally have around 16 in number for operations where there is no strategic need? I understand your sympathy is with Ukraine but let’s not post Paki level of propaganda

Probably a low flying fencer would be my guess...