Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

syam · Post by **syam** » 25 Feb 2022 21:25

Some saying Russia didn't achieve anything strategic in last 1.5/2 days. Are they serious?

It took coalition 18 days to capture a major city in Iraq War. Another 3 days to capture Baghdad. World No. 1 armed forces and superior hardware, still took 18+ days.

i am not saying Russians having it good. But i don't know what other perfect outcome anyone can achieve here.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 25 Feb 2022 21:25

Rudradev wrote:I cannot believe the hubris of that Richard Haass-hole trying to psych us into loud condemnation of Russia by saying we're not "behaving like a great power". What's his definition of a "great power" then? Ukraine?

As always Rudradev-ji, spot on. Great post.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 25 Feb 2022 21:28

syam wrote:Some saying Russia didn't achieve anything strategic in last 1.5/2 days. Are they serious?

It took coalition 18 days to capture a major city in Iraq War. Another 3 days to capture Baghdad. World No. 1 armed forces and superior hardware, still took 18+ days.

I am not saying Russians having it good. But i don't know what other perfect outcome anyone can achieve here.

If this *SOME* is America, then that is laughable.

America could never capture Afghanistan. They ran with their tail between their legs. 2001 - 2021. 20 Years.

Iraq, another mess from 2003 onwards! Vietnam, another mess. But Russia did not achieve anything strategic in 1.5 - 2 days.

Okay

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 25 Feb 2022 21:31

Atmavik wrote:One of the theories till last week was that “Putin can take a part of Ukraine but then what ever remains would de facto join NATO which he did not want”

Putin has effectively called out this bluff , Europe has no appetite for a hot war.

Ukraine is now learning a lesson we learned in 62 that ‘no one will help’

I feel really sorry for Taiwan right now.

John · Post by **John** » 25 Feb 2022 21:37

NYT reports: Bruno Le Maire, France’s finance minister, said France was in favor of severing Russia from SWIFT, a platform used to carry out global financial transactions,. [sic] The E.U. has so far refrained from taking. Mr. Le Maire said some E.U. member states “have expressed reservations” but that “France is not one of them.”

Still a lot of back and forth on SWIFT.

John · Post by **John** » 25 Feb 2022 21:40

syam wrote:Some saying Russia didn't achieve anything strategic in last 1.5/2 days. Are they serious?

It took coalition 18 days to capture a major city in Iraq War. Another 3 days to capture Baghdad. World No. 1 armed forces and superior hardware, still took 18+ days.

i am not saying Russians having it good. But i don't know what other perfect outcome anyone can achieve here.

It’s all about terrain and distance, Belarus is just 60 km from Kyiv. I been in that region it’s crazy how quickly you can get to another country just in a car. I think originally British Intel expected Kyiv to fall in 48 hrs.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 25 Feb 2022 21:42

John wrote:
syam wrote:Some saying Russia didn't achieve anything strategic in last 1.5/2 days. Are they serious?

It took coalition 18 days to capture a major city in Iraq War. Another 3 days to capture Baghdad. World No. 1 armed forces and superior hardware, still took 18+ days.

i am not saying Russians having it good. But i don't know what other perfect outcome anyone can achieve here.
It’s all about terrain and distance, Belarus is just 60 km from Kyiv. I been in that region it’s crazy how quickly you can get to another country just in a car. I think originally British Intel expected Kyiv to fall in 48 hrs.

And no news of them sharing this intel with UKR?

Or any news of them wanting to see this happen?

John · Post by **John** » 25 Feb 2022 21:46

GShankar wrote:
John wrote: It’s all about terrain and distance, Belarus is just 60 km from Kyiv. I been in that region it’s crazy how quickly you can get to another country just in a car. I think originally British Intel expected Kyiv to fall in 48 hrs.
And no news of them sharing this intel with UKR?

Or any news of them wanting to see this happen?

It’s been shared. This from yesterday and I believe they also warned Ukrainian president immediately after Russian troops crossed, asked him to leave the capital.

Bloomberg: Western Allies See Kyiz falling to Russian army within hours

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... thin-hours

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 25 Feb 2022 21:50

John wrote:
GShankar wrote:
And no news of them sharing this intel with UKR?

Or any news of them wanting to see this happen?
It’s been shared. This from yesterday and I believe they also warned Ukrainian president immediately after Russian troops crossed to leave the capital.

Bloomberg: Western Allies See Kyiz falling to Russian army within hours

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... thin-hours

This don't seem like Intel.

This seem to my untrained eyes, a preliminary analysis after the start of war.

Many in our forum also deduced this. So, I guess no props to uq

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 25 Feb 2022 21:52

Ex-Afghan Home Minister Amrullah Saleh joins in on this topic of US and its global leadership:

https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/stat ... 9123057665

When certain powers speak of rules based order or internatinal law one wonders where does Doha agreement fit in ? A brutal terorist group was legitimized & constitutional order in Afg was sacrificed, Pak wasn't sanctioned & now NGOs are feeding them to survive & opress the pple

Richard Haass and his ilk can bugger off and stare at their own faces in the mirror. mada****ds.

syam · Post by **syam** » 25 Feb 2022 21:54

John wrote: It’s all about terrain and distance, Belarus is just 60 km from Kyiv. I been in that region it’s crazy how quickly you can get to another country just in a car. I think originally British Intel expected Kyiv to fall in 48 hrs.

Are you saying US forces had to travel from America to Iraq for days and do war the next day? I guess 18+ days are great feat for coalition.

If this is how Brit Intel works, I am worried about their future.

John · Post by **John** » 25 Feb 2022 21:58

syam wrote:
John wrote: It’s all about terrain and distance, Belarus is just 60 km from Kyiv. I been in that region it’s crazy how quickly you can get to another country just in a car. I think originally British Intel expected Kyiv to fall in 48 hrs.
Are you saying US forces had to travel from America to Iraq for days and do war the next day? I guess 18+ days are great feat for coalition.

If this is how Brit Intel works, I am worried about their future.

I am saying based on the terrain, the distance and the opposition and what other calculation they using it base that decision on (May be from intercepted Russian intel) they expected it to fall in 48 hrs.

This seem to my untrained eyes, a preliminary analysis after the start of war.

It says in first line western intelligence but yea since you know more sure if you say so.

syam · Post by **syam** » 25 Feb 2022 22:00

Rakesh wrote: If this *SOME* is America, then that is laughable.

America could never capture Afghanistan. They ran with their tail between their legs. 2001 - 2021. 20 Years.

Iraq, another mess from 2003 onwards! Vietnam, another mess. But Russia did not achieve anything strategic in 1.5 - 2 days.

Okay

Unreasonable expectations became norm these days, sirji. Also these expectations apply only to the enemies and non-western countries. The allies can take their own sweet time and empty the coffers.

Russians did great in Syria. America was fighting for months there without achieving anything. Have to wonder what's their objective was.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 25 Feb 2022 22:02

John wrote:
syam wrote: Are you saying US forces had to travel from America to Iraq for days and do war the next day? I guess 18+ days are great feat for coalition.

If this is how Brit Intel works, I am worried about their future.
I am saying based on the terrain, the distance and the opposition and what other calculation they using it base that decision on (May be from intercepted Russian intel) they expected it to fall in 48 hrs.

This seem to my untrained eyes, a preliminary analysis after the start of war.
It says in first line western intelligence but yea since you know more sure if you say so.

If it says in the first line, then it must be

And it says "according to a western intelligence officer"

So, not british, but western

And

Not intel, but according to "sources"

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Feb 2022 22:04

Baikul wrote:Overall, my personal opinion is that Putin is in seriously trouble in terms of a decisive early victory.

Rudradev wrote:That's my assessment too, Baikul ji.

Not so sure about this. It's too early to tell. But TBH Russia/Putin looks anything but bogged down. The pace of their advance has been frenetic if not astounding. It makes one wonder if there is any resistance at all, and indirectly corroborates what the russkis have been saying... Little resistance by ukr army, some by nationalist militia.

There is hardly any proof whatsoever wrt Ukrainian resistance. We just see occasional visuals of rag tag militia types posing or running around. Optics of Pres in fatigue type tee shirt and former pres with some gun in hand. Pics of grandmas with weapons. No real columns, no armor, no air force, nothing! Looks like western media baazi.

Otoh, we see russki tanks and apcs strolling leisurely, column after column, in Ukrainian cities. Their missiles blowing up shit all over the place.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 25 Feb 2022 22:09

Lots of imponderables for India in this. The more punishing the financial sanctions against Russia, the closer Russia will be forced to integrate it's finances with China and the fallout will impact India. If it was not for the 70%-75% dependency that India has on Russian weaponry, India would truly not have a dog in this fight. And that Russian weaponry is what is needed to face off against China. I think which way India is going to lean will start becoming clearer if "China makes an offer India cannot refuse" to use the much hackneyed phrase from the Godfather..... Tashkent 2 but with Russia acting as a mediator between China and India and peace on Chinese terms.

China is capable of backstopping Russian FX dealings by even going to the extent of extending a $500 billion swap line. That lifeline is what Russia will need if financial sanctions are prolonged or if it is cut off from SWIFT. Under such a scenario, India will be in a tough situation.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 25 Feb 2022 22:12

yensoy wrote: 2. When we vote at UNSC I hope we remember Russia is not USSR and we carry any emotional baggage from the past. Our vote should be purely based on humanitarian values and national interest (and hopefully they don't conflict). But even before the vote, I am sure Shri Tirumurthy is busy getting the draft reworded to be acceptable to us.

At the time of abrogation of article 370 + article 35A. Putin supported us thoroughly calling it our internal affair. While usa and west were demonizing us.

As for Ukraine:

@KanchanGupta:

You take consistent anti-India position at UN.
You vote for UNSC sanctions against India after 1998 nuclear tests.
You push for UN intervention on Kashmir after abrogation of Article 370.
You sell military equipment to Pakistan to use against India.
Yet you want India’s help.
https://twitter.com/KanchanGupta/status ... BpgRw&s=19

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 25 Feb 2022 22:12

Russia has the lowest cost of extracting oil so India can stabilize its internal oil prices with Russia as a supplier in addition to friendly Gelf states for diversification. This is probably already in action -- if it is obvious to average amitabh like me, it is for the GoI too.

syam · Post by **syam** » 25 Feb 2022 22:12

John wrote:
I am saying based on the terrain, the distance and the opposition and what other calculation they using it base that decision on (May be from intercepted Russian intel) they expected it to fall in 48 hrs.

Shortest distance b/w Belarus and Kyiv is 90 km. From seashore to Basra is 100km. Make your own calculations.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Feb 2022 22:18

ldev wrote:. I think which way India is going to lean will start becoming clearer if "China makes an offer India cannot refuse" to use the much hackneyed phrase from the Godfather..... Tashkent 2 but with Russia acting as a mediator between China and India and peace on Chinese terms.

China is capable of backstopping Russian FX dealings by even going to the extent of extending a $500 billion swap line. That lifeline is what Russia will need if financial sanctions are prolonged or if it is cut off from SWIFT.

Interesting. Is there enough time for such an offer to be made and pondered over?

India will probably just abstain. There is literally zero reason to kowtow to NATO demands. Possibly even use this as an opportunity to pontificate to the west about how poorly it reflects on them when they have routinely buried principles over interests in the not so distant past. FM came very close to this in Munich.

I mean let's face it, western media has been anything but helpful to the current Indian govt with routine references to fascist, Hindu govt and horrible coverage during COVID.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Feb 2022 22:19

srikandan wrote:Russia has the lowest cost of extracting oil so India can stabilize its internal oil prices with Russia as a supplier in addition to friendly Gelf states for diversification. This is probably already in action -- if it is obvious to average amitabh like me, it is for the GoI too.

Point. But I give average Amitabh more credit than mandarins in goi.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 25 Feb 2022 22:20

srikandan wrote:Russia has the lowest cost of extracting oil so India can stabilize its internal oil prices with Russia as a supplier in addition to friendly Gelf states for diversification. This is probably already in action -- if it is obvious to average amitabh like me, it is for the GoI too.

And how would we transport this Oil? The best that can be done is a swap with the gulf states but the screws will be tightened on them. This is not good for us

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 25 Feb 2022 22:25

yensoy wrote:[ No need to support the Russians openly and piss off all the others (3 NATO members in P5, please don't forget, including our new friend France).

Our so called friend France is fighting tooth and nail to lift the ban on exporting arms to china.

Germans allowed Submarine's MAN engine to be ToT and manufacturing inside China.

These people were totally quiet on Galwan against lizard.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 25 Feb 2022 22:27

Cain Marko wrote:
Baikul wrote:Overall, my personal opinion is that Putin is in seriously trouble in terms of a decisive early victory.
….
Not so sure about this. It's too early to tell. But TBH Russia/Putin looks anything but bogged down. The pace of their advance has been astounding. It makes one wonder if there is any resistance at all, and indirectly corroborates what the russkis have been saying... Little resistance by ukr army, some by nationalist militia.

There is hardly any proof whatsoever wrt Ukrainian resistance. We just see occasional visuals of rag tag militia types posing or running around. No real columns, no armor, no air force, nothing!

Otoh, we see russki tanks and apcs strolling leisurely, column after column, in Ukrainian cities. Their missiles blowing up shit all over the place.

I don’t think that the Russian army has it that easy as you put it, it isn’t a stroll in the park IMO, but yes, I also am not getting the feeling of any ‘big wins’ from the Ukrainian pov. You may well be right and I may have erred. Let’s see.

It will be clearer once Russian forces start to enter the larger cities in earnest (Kyiv, Kharkiv). In Kyiv, maybe today will be decisive.

Edit: I forgot to add the initial reports from Kharkiv (second largest city) are of considerable local resistance.

Meanwhile Putin has called on Ukrainian army to rebel and replace the current government. And there is social media chatter that Russia is going to seriously up air and ground capabilities beyond what it already has deployed.

Russia certainly knows it has to end the war quickly.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 25 Feb 2022 22:28

https://youtu.be/dSCYjnwJtfk

CNN report on the battle of Kherson in the south. The bridge over Dnniper is still standing?

Looks like the Russians expect the UKR forces to fold like the Afghans and are not destroying critical infra

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 25 Feb 2022 22:28

atmavik: And how would we transport this Oil? The best that can be done is a swap with the gulf states but the screws will be tightened on them. This is not good for us

As long as the Indian and Pacific oceans are global commons, given that India has already sold a lot of oil blocks to Gazprom. In case of war, this would be a problem, but china and the US have as much,if not more reason to keep these shipping lanes open. so we should be okay, as long as we make it clear that interference with our oil supply will be considered an act of war.

As a long-term backup plan and also just as a way to engage nearer powers geographically, i.e., Russia and China, India work on a pipeline with Russia via Afghanisthan -- if Pakis get to be Russia's next pet slug, the Russia pakistan pipeline could server other purposes.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 25 Feb 2022 22:29

ldev wrote:Lots of imponderables for India in this. The more punishing the financial sanctions against Russia, the closer Russia will be forced to integrate it's finances with China and the fallout will impact India. If it was not for the 70%-75% dependency that India has on Russian weaponry, India would truly not have a dog in this fight. And that Russian weaponry is what is needed to face off against China. I think which way India is going to lean will start becoming clearer if "China makes an offer India cannot refuse" to use the much hackneyed phrase from the Godfather..... Tashkent 2 but with Russia acting as a mediator between China and India and peace on Chinese terms.

China is capable of backstopping Russian FX dealings by even going to the extent of extending a $500 billion swap line. That lifeline is what Russia will need if financial sanctions are prolonged or if it is cut off from SWIFT. Under such a scenario, India will be in a tough situation.

Don't know why peace on chinese terms will be the offer india can't refuse? Moreover I heard that during talks between putin and bing-bing, russia said they can't agree to any terms with china that is contradicting their existing treaties/commitments to india. It was on a video interview with one Elmer in the pgurus channel. May be it is not entirely true but some of it could be since India has a treaty with russia.

And per current situation, if the meeting were to happen in the next few days, it needs to happen in delhi or rather in thiruvananthapuram.

achy · Post by **achy** » 25 Feb 2022 22:43

[quote="GShankar"] …..Whichever way we vote, we need something in return.

So far, there is no articulation on either tactical or strategic objectives for this vote.[/quote]
I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. The government may be well aware of its goals, but here in the public space I see a lack of clarity. In this I include commentators, journalists, and mango men. FWIW, I include myself amongst the mango men (on BR and elsewhere) struggling to answer a basic - what are our interests so that we should accordingly?

It’s all very well to say we should vote as per our goals. But what are these goals and are they achievable given the current geopolitical reality? Should we take an aggressive yea or no stance? Or stick to the middle path, abstain? really pleasing no one and offending no one?[/quote]

We may not know but I think everyone knows their goals. India's short term goal is to maintain co-operation of Russia for our military needs and long term goal is to not let China emerge as unipolar entity. This goal is at variance due to current circumstances and that is why we have no choice but to be neutral. Russian short term goal is to not let a "pakistan" in their backyard and long term goal is to expand till Baltic sea. US goal is to create a "pakistan" for Russia and keep Russia hemmed in and then contain china to not emerge as a contender. Chinese goal is to ensure russians on their side for energy supplies and access to CAR at the same time they will secretly hope that Russia does not get a clean victory. China's Long term goal is to dismantle western order. As you see there are lot of overlapping and conflicting aims of everyone involved.

In such a scenario, ideally we dont care where Russia wins in Ukraine or gets bogged down. But for long term, russia getting bogged down may be little more favorable scenario for us as it will weaken Russia and keep west focused on China. Because if Russia wins ukraine easily then West will expend all its energy on Russia as it will be more immediate and mortal threat. A bogged down russia can also suit us as we can use our strategic autonomy to support russia on case by case basis for continued cooperation and not letting fall in China's lap all together. Having said that they are too many vectors as far as short term goals are concerned.

As far as voting in UN is concerned, it will depend on the language. if language specifically targets Russia as aggressor and recommend UN sanctioned sanctions then we have to stay out even risking displeasure from both Russia and US/West. But if language is more to just denounce aggression without names and continue diplomatic means for resolution then we vote yes. Our only principle is our self interest and only thing we have to remember is that we are always alone.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 25 Feb 2022 22:55

GShankar wrote: Don't know why peace on chinese terms will be the offer india can't refuse? Moreover I heard that during talks between putin and bing-bing, russia said they can't agree to any terms with china that is contradicting their existing treaties/commitments to india. It was on a video interview with one Elmer in the pgurus channel. May be it is not entirely true but some of it could be since India has a treaty with russia.

And per current situation, if the meeting were to happen in the next few days, it needs to happen in delhi or rather in thiruvananthapuram.

Apologies if I implied that a meeting needs to happen in the next few days. I don't think anything will happen till Ukraine settles down, but after that the direction will become clear. The heavy dependency on Russian weapons makes India vulnerable to such offers. Refusing such peace offers that favor China will require a lot of spine. The easy way out for India will be to accept such an offer, after some due negotiations, to try and make it less one sided. The difficult choice, given the Russian dependence, and the difficulties that Russia will be in with financial sanctions and the consequent hurdles in procuring more Russian weapons, will be to refuse to compromise with China and make peace on terms that India sees as fair.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 25 Feb 2022 22:58

achy wrote:
….As you see there are lot of overlapping and conflicting aims of everyone involved.

...Our only principle is our self interest and only thing we have to remember is that we are always alone.

+1

Good post

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Feb 2022 23:03

Baikul wrote:Russia certainly knows it has to end the war quickly.

Agreed on this point. All I was trying to say is that it's too early to make a call on russki move so far.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Feb 2022 23:03

I am very sure that there is a connection to the ukraine situation and some misguided ameriki babooze's idea of pressuring India.

no matter what the "official" reason given, India has definitely come under pressure and this is likely the first casualty.

this is a $3Billion deal onlee

Feb 23, 2022

India won't buy predator drones from United States; $3 bn deal put on hold

Here's why India cancelled plans to buy 30 Predator drones from the US

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 25 Feb 2022 23:04

achy wrote:We may not know but I think everyone knows their goals.

Agreed. Like I said, there is no articulation of our goals in public sphere.

achy wrote:India's short term goal is to maintain co-operation of Russia for our military needs and long term goal is to not let China emerge as unipolar entity.

Let's say we have several goals and the above two are among them. Are these our top priority at the moment?

Why I say this?

Russia:

We have treaty with Russia, so by default everyone expects us to stand with russia.
West is trying to wean us away from russia - we need to be clearly communicate on what it would take (say F-22 and F-35 tech for example or something like that)
We have several projects running with russia in spite of several mis-steps. Not sure this one vote even if against russia will weaken that

China:

There are other countries including russia who do not want china to be numero uno
Russia knows we have issues with China - there is a cost for russia to ignore us (we don't seem to have mai-baap mentality anymore. I could be wrong though)
China won't be numero uno tomorrow. There is lot of time for that

Overall, imo when these kind of situations happen, we need to extract something. And not just do something for free (to others) due to fear of losing something which we technically don't have in case we really loose it.

achy wrote:This goal is at variance....

Agreed.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 25 Feb 2022 23:11

GShankar: Please put the poster's name in every quote when replying.

Also, please do not quote entire paragraphs, to post one word.

Your co-operation in this matter is appreciated. I have edited your post.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 25 Feb 2022 23:12

Thanks. Will do

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 25 Feb 2022 23:14

Thank You Sir.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 25 Feb 2022 23:18

ldev wrote: Apologies if I implied that a meeting needs to happen in the next few days. I don't think anything will happen till Ukraine settles down, but after that the direction will become clear...

Please, no need for apologies.

I believe our PM has a great spine and a brilliant mind.

Going back a several years, when russian economy collapsed, we could have written off so much if not all our debt. We stood by russia though we were at a loss. And no body does that including russia. Going forward, don't think we are interested in this.

If russia could have been a mediator between india and china, they could have done that already while they had more leverage. Now, when they need us a bit more, they have lost a bit less leverage. That is why I am in favour of thiruvananthapuram or kanyakumari. We don't need Tashkent-2 given that even Tashkent-1 was a mistake.

syam · Post by **syam** » 25 Feb 2022 23:23

If Nato doesn't do something in next 24 hours, they can kiss good bye to Ukraine.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 25 Feb 2022 23:28

I think by refusing to put boots on the ground in Ukraine and keeping Zelensky in liquid oxygen regarding membership, they may have changed the mind of Ukrainian leadership, which is probably seeing no upside in the current situation, but then again, hope springs eternal.

AkshaySG · Post by **AkshaySG** » 25 Feb 2022 23:30

chetak wrote:I am very sure that there is a connection to the ukraine situation and some misguided ameriki babooze's idea of pressuring India.

no matter what the "official" reason given, India has definitely come under pressure and this is likely the first casualty.

this is a $3Billion deal onlee

Feb 23, 2022

India won't buy predator drones from United States; $3 bn deal put on hold

Here's why India cancelled plans to buy 30 Predator drones from the US

A flurry of deals with Russia were canceled in the last couple of months too.. Including the Kamov chopper deals and the extra Migs etc
It is all under the banner of promoting Atmanirbharta but the PM and MOD must have seen the writing on the wall as well.