Reminds me of analytical posts in Levant thread during Syria campaign, so educative :
https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/statu ... UE6Vg&s=19
other than vdv and spetsnaz units, rest of russi army seem vehicle bound & not highly capable as dismounted infantry, esp for complex urban fighting with politically mandated NO artillery & gunships to blast the way. in that scenario all will fail not just russi 1/n
our J&K police and CRPF seem much more capable and equipped for that role. Russis want to fight a war of movement on open fields, Ukr has abandoned all thoughts of that and will fight _only_ from cities, parking their gear among houses and daring russi to come in and fight 2/n
with pre-sited c3i teams provided by nato in deeply buried bunkers or under civil structures like apts/malls & satphone gear to use for psyops videos - so even cutting wired & 4g is not going to block leak of psywar videos albeit slow it down. 'police action' narrative fails 3/n
Ukr plan to sit in cities, fight back probes & let the world reaction and effects on russian economy grow more & more adverse. fan civil unrest in russia..new revolution. they know 'police action' narrative means cities are unlikely to be shelled or even gas/power/4g cut off
4/n
glaring weakness in russi air surveillance and airbase denial showing up as Ukr able to stage their remaining fighters and drones from near moldova and western side using isolated airstrips and roads(for bayraktars)...this must have been gamed & trained for earlier 5/n
Ukr at present will not concede to any russi demand and dare them to fight on since russi has shown no willingness or ability to go after western ukr and destroy the new strongholds there via belarus .... 6/n
attack on supply train is a ancient thing. every book on ww3 has such teams attacking supply chains and stores in west europe. 7/n
chechnya has been at peace and the militias lack battle exp unlike the retired lot. bushy hipster beard, skinny pants, tacticool gear, high cut helmets .. have to see how good they are ... not yet exposed to any serious fight 8/n
russia can certainly carve up all the east bank of the dneipr and make it a defacto border but may need to leave kiev and not demand regime change...instead just annex upto odessa and east of dneipr and call the novorossiya project done 9/n
non-linear soln is they need lots and lots of good infantry and caucasus muslim leftover areas are their only source with uzbekistan gone away (rest of CAR are space pop)...10/n
would suggest Pakistan could provide solution(!) - long tradition of hard fighting baloch, pathan, jutt, rajput musalman regts w/ plenty of battle experience & no lack of manpower or line infantry skills.
pakistan can provide rus with good dismount infantry it badly lacks n/n
IAF has better tools for precision strike now with saaw and rudram going in, I dare say we would have done better than the mostly minimal help ruaf has offered barring the frogfoots. a week into the war they are still having to use precious iskanders and kalibr for airbases
saaw with derated warheads permits going in among populated areas to strike artillery and tanks parked near houses with minimal collateral damaged using a vertical shaped dive profile to focus cone of explosion downwards.
we need say 50,000 saaw on a emergency basis.
the time to experiment and prove such concepts, how to deal with similar strategies in our context is now. nobody can just 'derate' a SAAW on the fly without good amt of test on adding small warheads and ballast for such urban CAS PGM role or maybe laser guided rockets from helis
needless to say LCH in huge nos is a urgent need .... the days of waving around a couple iphones and having the natives in awe of the mirrors & beads is LONG over.
hope our top brass has woken up after this fracture of the world system...
days of sending a high level team to russia in a emergency and arranging for a few C17 loads of essential gear are over. russia is going to be under huge pressure on all fronts and will need to rebuild its military to face expanding nato forces.
germany for eg has both the money and tech to build big. they had conscription of 2 yrs and a huge high tech army upto the end of cold war.
India and China are now the only 2 large nations with a foot in both camps. Turkey is a marginal third case.
China is insulated due to being the worlds factory and a host of other reasons.
after russia, the next 'usual suspect' to be beaten & punished is surely India.
hybrid combined arms lashkars of wokes, murican deep state, global left, anarchists, jihadists all have a common agenda - get Mudi ji out, bring back the good old days...
they are already on the march globally.
time is running out...