Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Div · Post by **Div** » 03 Mar 2022 12:00

Btw IAF has a serious airbridge going between Delhi and Romania/Hungary/Poland with the C-17s. At least 3 round trips already today with another 3 outbound (IFC2622, IFC3822, IFC2822).

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 03 Mar 2022 12:11

Yes today around 15 flights were planned

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Mar 2022 12:17

Thakur_B wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
In roughly a week, nearly 500 personnel dead and 1600 wounded as admitted by Russia. Invariably this leads to considerable material loss too. In 1999, the Kargil War, India had 527 dead and 1363 wounded with 2 fighter aircraft and one helo. Pakistan had over 1200 dead and over 1000 wounded. Kargil was a conflict that has not been forgotten and strengthened the IA capacity in the long run that paid off in Galwan in 2020.
500 KIA in a week surely does indicate very heavy fighting. While Kargil was a slow paced heavy grind inch-by-inch warfare, thus is far more kinetic blitzkrieg ki d of operation. IA was very cautious in avoiding casualties given the heavy odds against them due to terrain, while Russians have adopted a more brash kick the doors down approach.
The end goal of Russian action is still not clear. Is the entire Ukraine going to be overrun or just eastern terriories?

An overall surrender will be beneficial to Russia, but it will come at a heavy cost.

Casualties have to be looked at in the following context:
- What happens from now ?
If the ukr army in the Donbass has become unhinged and is retreating, or if the main Ukr units (they have 13 combined arms brigades) have already been engaged and are retreating, or hit hard, then from now Russian casualties will be reduced and Ukrainian increase.
If the Russians plan to get into urban combat, their casualties will increase. If they use more artillery and air strikes, Ukr casualties go up.

- When will an army break ?
It depends on : When do you know you aren't going to win (or definitely lose) and at when does your unit reach the stage when its incapable of
conducting operations. The Ukraine has 13 brigades. Say 40 battalions, or 32000 men actually in combat. If their casualties are the same as
Russia (2000 a week) and expected to rise, as their situation gets worse, then they would have conservatively 5000 casualties by week 2 (not counting POW and encircled forces). That's 15% of their force in active combat. Enough to break morale (coupled with the thought that `the longer I resist' the higher is the change of my family in Kiev dying from artillery or an air strike).

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Mar 2022 12:19

Div wrote:Btw IAF has a serious airbridge going between Delhi and Romania/Hungary/Poland with the C-17s. At least 3 round trips already today with another 3 outbound (IFC2622, IFC3822, IFC2822).

No other country has even attempted an evacuation on this scale. Not China or US or EU. Something to be proud of.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 Mar 2022 12:20

Sachin wrote:I guess some one else have already noticed this; I am seeing lot of strange advertisements, news reports links all pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia. That too when I have not visited any of those news portals. Looks like this is another media blitz-krieg triggered by liberal (?) countries like US.

The Anti Russian propaganda is all over the place. Even in supposedly "neutral" Indian weekly magazine such as Open the Magazine.

The reactions from US tells me that the US has been preparing for this conflict for some time.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 03 Mar 2022 12:21

Very interesting flights adjoining Ukraine, for instance Global Hawk at 56000 feet well above commercial traffic scanning over Poland https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE10/2afe81cf, ELINT doing the same over Romania https://www.flightradar24.com/HOMER49/2b010fbb KC-135 tanker circling over Romania https://www.flightradar24.com/LAGR220/2b012623. Note the public availability of this data, this is intentional.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 Mar 2022 12:23

Deans wrote:
No other country has even attempted an evacuation on this scale. Not China or US or EU. Something to be proud of.

In the last few years. I think we are averaging one evacuation every 2 years.

Something is very wrong that our people are ending up in so many conflict zones.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 03 Mar 2022 12:28

Our people are everywhere.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 03 Mar 2022 12:31

Pratyush wrote:
Deans wrote:
No other country has even attempted an evacuation on this scale. Not China or US or EU. Something to be proud of.
In the last few years. I think we are averaging one evacuation every 2 years.

Something is very wrong that our people are ending up in so many conflict zones.

True. Fundamental shortcomings of our institutions cannot be wished away and neither can peoples aspirations. People will go wherever there is a better life or a chance of getting one at home. India needs a huge number of doctors, and our colleges simply cannot produce them at a cost that is affordable to people. Hence we have cases such as this our people going for hair dressing course in UK.

An interesting statistic was that only 18% of these people pass the qualifying exam back home which speaks volumes about the education they receive even after shelling out 20L

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 03 Mar 2022 12:44

US recalls cable saying India, UAE in 'Russia’s camp': Report

NEW DELHI: US diplomats were instructed to inform their Indian and UAE counterparts that their position of neutrality on Ukraine put them in 'Russia's camp', according to a report on Axios. The instruction was via a strongly-worded diplomatic cable, which has been recalled.
Rated sensitive but unclassified, the cable suggested that the US diplomats persuade India and the UAE to change their positions on Ukraine, the Axios reported.
The cable mentioned draft points for the United States to refer to for conversations with its Indian and UAE counterparts. According to the report, one of the talking points in the cable said, "Continuing to call for dialogue, as you have been doing in the Security Council, is not a stance of neutrality; it places you in Russia's camp, the aggressor in this conflict".
"We strongly encourage you to take the opportunity to support Ukraine in the Human Rights Council, an opportunity you failed to seize in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)," it mentioned further.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 03 Mar 2022 12:55

The govt should start imposing a 10$ cess on all international tickets and put that in a special fund to be used for such evacuations. While the nation will and must show solidarity, travellers going abroad must be grateful for the efforts govt and airlines have put in and should willingly contribute. Still there will be a debt towards those who risk their lives to get people out in pandemics, war zones etc...

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 03 Mar 2022 13:00

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60597751

War crimes investigation coming.

If same standards are applied, wonder what would happen to US? Oh wait.. they are not subject to its jurisdiction in the first place as US is not a signatory.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Mar 2022 13:49

Tanaji wrote:
Pratyush wrote:
In the last few years. I think we are averaging one evacuation every 2 years.

Something is very wrong that our people are ending up in so many conflict zones.
An interesting statistic was that only 18% of these people pass the qualifying exam back home which speaks volumes about the education they receive even after shelling out 20L

Pass rate is barely 10%

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 Mar 2022 13:50

Ashokk wrote:US recalls cable saying India, UAE in 'Russia’s camp': Report
NEW DELHI: US diplomats were instructed to inform their Indian and UAE counterparts that their position of neutrality on Ukraine put them in 'Russia's camp', according to a report on Axios. The instruction was via a strongly-worded diplomatic cable, which has been recalled.
Rated sensitive but unclassified, the cable suggested that the US diplomats persuade India and the UAE to change their positions on Ukraine, the Axios reported.
The cable mentioned draft points for the United States to refer to for conversations with its Indian and UAE counterparts. According to the report, one of the talking points in the cable said, "Continuing to call for dialogue, as you have been doing in the Security Council, is not a stance of neutrality; it places you in Russia's camp, the aggressor in this conflict".
"We strongly encourage you to take the opportunity to support Ukraine in the Human Rights Council, an opportunity you failed to seize in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)," it mentioned further.

we are only returning the favours owed

India's clarity is rock solid onlee

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 03 Mar 2022 14:02

The ungratefulness and sense of entitlement and total lack of awareness is astounding:

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... r-7798725/

“But my brother is in Kharkiv, which is in the eastern part of Ukraine. The Indian government should have airlifted students out of Kharkiv. Instead, they were given last-minute notices to flee the city and reach the border areas. Why is this promotion being done? We took all the pains to reach the Romanian border. You are giving us free flights, but what about the students who are caught in the war?” asked Vishaka.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 03 Mar 2022 14:23

Tanaji wrote:The ungratefulness and sense of entitlement and total lack of awareness is astounding:

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... r-7798725/

“But my brother is in Kharkiv, which is in the eastern part of Ukraine. The Indian government should have airlifted students out of Kharkiv. Instead, they were given last-minute notices to flee the city and reach the border areas. Why is this promotion being done? We took all the pains to reach the Romanian border. You are giving us free flights, but what about the students who are caught in the war?” asked Vishaka.

I don’t know if this r rona (no prizes for guessing what the first ‘r’ stands for) is an individual issue or whether these are entitled kids who’ve gotten used to paying their way through life, or whether we ourself don’t understand the situation and are victim blaming. But it’s shocking how much our people expect to be spoon fed.

Meh I’m probably becoming curmudgeonly in my dotage.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 03 Mar 2022 14:49

If there’s one thing you do today while online, may I please request you to watch this video? It’s only 12 minutes long but it brilliantly encapsulates (giving examples) how Russia is losing the SM war. And later in the video how in Russia’s own SM was initially taken in.

Compelling viewing. Needs to be shared and reshared.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=98cXig0hOVw

It explodes key Western and Ukranian myths and memes point by point. Kim Iverson/ The Hill.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 Mar 2022 16:03

Russia’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev, slammed the German government & said:

“Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!”

What Medvedev said, came true in less than 10 days.

Price of gas in Europe smashes past $2,200 per 1,000 cubic meters.

What if Biden/NATO/EU pushed Putin to a corner with his sanctions and Russia stops Gas supply to Europe totally?

Where will this price reach?

A lot of US nuclear reactors depend on russian uranium.

A strong lobby is pleading with the Biden WH to also exempt russian uranium from the sanctions, just like what was done for russian oil/gas

It looks like the sanctions regime was not thought through

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 03 Mar 2022 16:04

Tanaji wrote:Ukraine has petitioned ICANN and RIPE to remove all Russian top level domains and reclaim all IPv4 and v6 addresses allocated to Russia.

The second one is far more serious and needs to be watched very closely how these organisations respond as this strikes into the heart of how Internet is supposed to work. Long long time ago the Russians had protested that these organisations are under US control and s should be made more accountable to the fact that they underpin the Internet’s functioning and hence should be neutral. Time has shown how prescient they were.

This has been India's stance as well for a few decades now.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 Mar 2022 16:15

Baikul,

I regularly watch this program. This lady Kim calls it like it is.

But Ryan Grim, is just another establishment tool suffering form the same pathology about India which the Washington think tank circut surfers with.

Acting on those pathology by Washington against Russia over the last 20 years has led to this war.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 03 Mar 2022 16:27

@ Pratyush - this one was particularly good. For mango man who may not be following the war closely but susceptible to western propaganda, it’s an eye opener.

John · Post by **John** » 03 Mar 2022 16:47

Lot of theories floating around on how he died but let’s wait for more evidence.

“Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, former commander of the Guards Airborne Assault Mountain Division, died in action in Ukraine, according to a representative of the All-Russian Airborne Troops Union in the Kirov region, Sergei Chipilev. Sukhovetsky previously commanded the 7th Airborne Division, and most recently was deputy commander of the 41st Army.”

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1499 ... 44773?s=21

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 Mar 2022 16:57

Deans wrote:
Div wrote:Btw IAF has a serious airbridge going between Delhi and Romania/Hungary/Poland with the C-17s. At least 3 round trips already today with another 3 outbound (IFC2622, IFC3822, IFC2822).
No other country has even attempted an evacuation on this scale. Not China or US or EU. Something to be proud of.

Don’t forget that as these C-17s come from India as part of Operation Ganga, they are bringing over 2 tons of humanitarian relief for Ukraine with food, medicine, medical supplies, tents and blankets. This is to help the over 1 million refugees from Ukraine.

chaitanya · Post by **chaitanya** » 03 Mar 2022 18:31

Many forumites are painting a picture where Russia is backed into a corner economically with all these sanctions and new ones being considered like blocking dns servers and whatnot.

However, it seems to me that Putin does have many retaliatory options to severely impact the west Financially without crossing nuclear red lines. For one, Russian hackers have not seemed to attack anything yet, and I wonder what some well-placed asats would do to global shipping and telecommunications. I feel that the west can only push to a limit. Am I missing something?

John · Post by **John** » 03 Mar 2022 18:37

Interesting read on tires it looks like Russians use Chinese tires and don’t maintain them properly (atleast the one used in stuck Pantsir). Since I am not an expert on tires I am not going to chime in on this.

https://twitter.com/karlmuth/status/149 ... 74371?s=21
https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status ... 02944?s=21

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 03 Mar 2022 18:51

Bbc up to usual propaganda. I suppose I should stop posting from this site now:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-60603226

A cursory mention of the racist treatment to coloured people. Not a single mention of the massive airlift arranged by India in the section on what governments are doing to help.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60604206
Most countries are seizing Russian oligarchs assets but not UKstan. They want to keep their reputation intact.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 03 Mar 2022 19:05

Sanctioning a large economy with a broad brush does not work. Thanks to global interdependencies, you end up sanctioning your own azz. Then again, many say that Bhaidanwa barely remembers where his own azz is, anyway....

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Mar 2022 19:23

Y'all mean the sanctions aren't knocking them Iranians down...?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 03 Mar 2022 19:27

Russia has called gobbling of its foreign reserves of $630 billion a theft threatening nuclear war https://inews.co.uk/news/world-war-thre ... 495678/amp

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 03 Mar 2022 19:35

Interesting...yesterday I posted on Ukr = Pak of Europe. Today Shawn Jay is having a discussion on the very topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7jgZlJV9Fs

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 03 Mar 2022 19:40

Deans wrote:
Div wrote:Btw IAF has a serious airbridge going between Delhi and Romania/Hungary/Poland with the C-17s. At least 3 round trips already today with another 3 outbound (IFC2622, IFC3822, IFC2822).
No other country has even attempted an evacuation on this scale. Not China or US or EU. Something to be proud of.

Proud of the GOI.

Here is a clip of a conversation between a Muslim man and a ?BJP worker/GOI worker about rescuing the former's nephew from Ukraine.

Sorry, can't seem to upload it. Would somebody tell me how to attach an audio clip here?

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 03 Mar 2022 19:41

Baikul wrote:If there’s one thing you do today while online, may I please request you to watch this video? It’s only 12 minutes long but it brilliantly encapsulates (giving examples) how Russia is losing the SM war. And later in the video how in Russia’s own SM was initially taken in.

Compelling viewing. Needs to be shared and reshared.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=98cXig0hOVw

It explodes key Western and Ukranian myths and memes point by point. Kim Iverson/ The Hill.

Sorry for a bit OT post.

Not sure Google's "friendly" algorithms at work in pushing videos for us to watch.

Kim iverson moved from her independent podcast to hill once the prior hosts of "rising" left for their own show. In any case several talk show hosts - even the ones we think honest depend on certain sources to articulate. The annoying thing for us is - they talk shit about bbc, nyt and such all the time but when it comes to anything against us - for example the last big thing was "paarmer protests" - they cite the same britshit-bc and nyt to pile on us.

In any case we need to train ourselves similarly to only use these folks' narratives when it suits us. It would be nice to have something like sham sharma show in US, discussing US news from our perspective.

MeshaVishwas · Post by **MeshaVishwas** » 03 Mar 2022 19:48

Very informative discussion
Lt Gen Chauhan was very candid

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 03 Mar 2022 20:17

The John Mearsheimer talk now has 14 million views. Before the Ukraine war, it must have been less than a million. A lot of Americans/EU must have watched it. There is a significant body of both experts and lay men in US/West who think NATO is at fault here. After the dust settles, more people will believe this to be the case just as Gulf War 2 and WMD in Iraq.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 03 Mar 2022 20:27

TN to send team to Ukraine's neighbouring countries to bring home Tamil students

. I don't know what extra can state level ministers from India can do in countries bordering Ukraine. I am waiting to see if Kerala would be the next to send some ministers to these countries in a vain attempt to score some brownie points against Indian Central Govt. The KL commies are also in desperation to prove that they are some kind 'independent' state and not part of Indian Union.

Yugandhar · Post by **Yugandhar** » 03 Mar 2022 20:39

TN to send team to Ukraine's neighbouring countries to bring home Tamil students

They should up the stakes by sending their ministers into the warzone with a torch to look for missing students. That way they will better Modi

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 03 Mar 2022 20:45

vinod wrote:Our people are everywhere.

We have a huge population, messed up policy making and anarchist pillars of democracy.

I am one of those who has left .. maybe govt take out insurance for people in high risk areas ?

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 03 Mar 2022 20:53

Brilliant speech at Bundestag

link
The above statement echoes sentiments of several Indian diplomats as well (of course who condemn brazen Russian aggression) but basically US (probably deep state/Dems) along with NATO were egging Ukraine since 2014...of course the ultimate losers in this latest game is Ukrainian citizens as usual while EU/US sits on the sidelines and cheer by offering useless platitudes.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 03 Mar 2022 21:09

Karan M wrote:Y'all mean the sanctions aren't knocking them Iranians down...?

Much smaller and much less capable country.

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 03 Mar 2022 21:39

What is Putin's end game? I am serious. So you destroy and defang a country. Then what? Form a partnership with India and China versus the rest of the world? Is that it?

Also, for all of you American haters, it seems to me that the C-17s outperform the IL-76s in pretty much everything. That's a real shame isn't it?