Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

John · Post by **John** » 05 Mar 2022 16:21

Ukr have shot down a Su-35 (wait confirmation) and Mi-35

Mi-35
https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... 75425?s=21

Plane shoot down
https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... 18497?s=21

ShivS · Post by **ShivS** » 05 Mar 2022 16:22

Deans wrote:From seeing maps of the fighting in the last 2 days (both Russian and Western), I get the impression that the Russian advance has stalled.
This is after considering that they would have to halt for an operational pause (which happened on days 5-7).

In all three areas that represent opportunities for encircling Ukrainian forces, there has been no further `closing of the ring'. These are the
surrounding of Kiev, the encircling of the Ukr forces in Donetsk/Luhansk and an encirclement

Agree - hear mud and smart Ukraine tactics are big issues - vehicles not able to function off road effectively and road network is becoming a death trap.

Looking ugly.

John · Post by **John** » 05 Mar 2022 16:32

Keep in mind mid really becomes a factor in late Mar so there is window for Russia but it is closing fast and it’s going to start to get whole lot of worse to move around.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 05 Mar 2022 16:48

John wrote:Keep in mind mid really becomes a factor in late Mar so there is window for Russia but it is closing fast and it’s going to start to get whole lot of worse to move around.

Rasputitsa.

Ironic that overall and in broad strokes the last 2 major references have been in the opposite direction, going in. In fact a major irony.

ShivS · Post by **ShivS** » 05 Mar 2022 16:55

John wrote:Keep in mind mid really becomes a factor in late Mar so there is window for Russia but it is closing fast and it’s going to start to get whole lot of worse to move around.

Wheeled vehicles can’t go off road without getting stuck. Leaves supply and troop carriers very vulnerable to air attack. Tracked vehicles should be ok for another 2 weeks or so.

John · Post by **John** » 05 Mar 2022 17:32

Baikul wrote:
John wrote:Keep in mind mid really becomes a factor in late Mar so there is window for Russia but it is closing fast and it’s going to start to get whole lot of worse to move around.
Rasputitsa.

Ironic that overall and in broad strokes the last 2 major references have been in the opposite direction, going in. In fact a major irony.

The ground is still frozen (they just had snow yesterday) to allow some travel but doesn’t mean you can’t get stuck, as shiv mentioned wheeled vehicles can get stuck. You need Temp over 40 deg F mixed with rain to create that muddy mess looking at the weather you definitely won’t see it next week.

Added: Last shoot down was a Su-34 not 35. Recovered bombs are unguided not sure the wisdom of equipping a state of art Fighter bomber with unguided FAB-500 bombs.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Mar 2022 18:15

chechens have recovered stash of $$ in millions apparently https://twitter.com/Aryan_warlord/statu ... t_BFlSzneg

speed with which Ru helis & fighter jets are being shot down, missiles and shells look better option

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 05 Mar 2022 18:21

The rate @ which Ruski aircraft & helis are being shot down...damn Stingers I guess! I guess the aircraft/helis are not the newest upgraded ones since I think the newest ones are supposed to have quite sophisticated EW & self-defense suites (MAWS, President-S)...

Been reading conflicting reports about status of Ukrainian skies...West/Ukr says that significant AD assets are active and Ruski sources say that except MANPADS, mostly other ADs are not operating. I guess the latest phase of operations requires more CAS etc. means more riskier flying ops and hence increasing loses. After Afghanistan where the same Stingers caused havoc, one would have hoped that Russians would have come up with newer tactics...

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Mar 2022 18:23

over 20,000 fighters from Eu & mercenaries have entered Ukraine to fight Russia, armed with variety of lethal aid

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Mar 2022 18:33

non stop pumping of Ukrainian ego by West media has resulted in them lining up for rifles to fight Ru forces. Humiliated US UK (who couldn't stop Russian beating their munna) salivating at prospect of turning Ukr into Afghan2.0

ShivS · Post by **ShivS** » 05 Mar 2022 18:55

IndraD wrote:over 20,000 fighters from Eu & mercenaries have entered Ukraine to fight Russia, armed with variety of lethal aid

Unlikely - that’s a division and a bit. Ukrainian military must also be running tight on weapons and reserves. Putin seems in no mood to back down. This is now getting really ugly.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Mar 2022 18:56

one heli shot down today plus a Mi-35. Yesterday, Russia lost 2 Su-24 and one Mi-8. Seems Ukraine has got itself some mean MANPADs

John · Post by **John** » 05 Mar 2022 19:09

IndraD wrote:over 20,000 fighters from Eu & mercenaries have entered Ukraine to fight Russia, armed with variety of lethal aid

Source for that? CNN did a bit and there handful of 5 men in Ukr-Pol border from UK and US all strangers who apparently meet at the border and looking to join.

John · Post by **John** » 05 Mar 2022 19:10

IndraD wrote:one heli shot down today plus a Mi-35. Yesterday, Russia lost 2 Su-24 and one Mi-8. Seems Ukraine has got itself some mean MANPADs

Mi-24, Mi-35 and Su-34 today. Yesterday there was 3 not 2 Su-24 IIRC. May be Mi-35 by Kyiv could be from new Stingers but rest I think is existing equipment I doubt new equipment made it down there that fast.

Usually with experience you get better with ambushes in early footage they missed a lot in manpad attacks. Plus it seems russia has run out of Pgm and cruise missiles and has to resort to attacks with dumb bombs and rocket pods.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 05 Mar 2022 19:10

chanakyaa wrote: Biden administration discussing sanctions on Russia’s internet access, congressman says (this one falls in looney category)
...
To limit Russia’s internet access, the U.S. could order American internet service providers to block traffic to and from Russia, according to the congressman. Other countries such as the U.K. could follow suit.

The move could rely on the more than 400 undersea fiber optic cables that serve as a backbone for the internet.
...

Yesterday Cogent (one of the tier 1 Internet service providers, albeit a low quality one used by a lot of shady operators) disconnected Russia from their backbone.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Mar 2022 19:35

John wrote:
IndraD wrote:over 20,000 fighters from Eu & mercenaries have entered Ukraine to fight Russia, armed with variety of lethal aid
Source for that? CNN did a bit and there handful of 5 men in Ukr-Pol border from UK and US all strangers who apparently meet at the border and looking to join.

https://www.firstpost.com/world/explain ... 28101.html Explained: Who are the ‘16,000 foreign fighters’ in Ukraine joining the resistance against Russia?

Div · Post by **Div** » 05 Mar 2022 19:46

Div wrote:Can you guys watch the 14 second video here and see if you spot something out of place

https://twitter.com/mschwirtz/status/14 ... 2829700101

Baikul wrote:I don’t get it, but then I was always a backbencher, hain ji.

Cyrano wrote:The guy behind the truck? Seems like a blue jacket with a white reflective stripe on the back with some red lettering below it. Not Russian flag.

Pratyush wrote:Person wearing a jacket with what appears to be a Russian Flag.

Cyrano wrote:The guy behind the truck? Seems like a blue jacket with a white reflective stripe on the back with some red lettering below it. Not Russian flag.

I was thinking about the guy at the 9 to 10 second mark with his back the camera, hands in his pockets and not a lick of dirt on him. Looks too well dressed to be a local

https://twitter.com/mschwirtz/status/14 ... 2829700101

John · Post by **John** » 05 Mar 2022 20:03

https://www.firstpost.com/world/explain ... 28101.html Explained: Who are the ‘16,000 foreign fighters’ in Ukraine joining the resistance against Russia?

Thanks will read that.

Russia just lost Su-30sm and another Su-25. No idea what’s going some speculation that FAC shoot down could be due to S-300s being activated by UkAF (some where undergoing maintenance at the start of the conflict).

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 91072?s=21

John · Post by **John** » 05 Mar 2022 20:12

Footage from Kherson base that Russia captured at the start of the conflict, apparently as per Russian reporter most of soldiers were sleeping in barracks when Russian troops were approaching and abandoned it. Shows to how effective initial thrust was and as I had if they focus all their forces on south or East it would have been far more effective.

https://twitter.com/asbmilitary/status/ ... 24422?s=21

kit · Post by **kit** » 05 Mar 2022 20:49

http://a.msn.com/01/en-gb/AAUEkTR?ocid=sw

The Palestinian leaders’ main argument is that the international community is being hypocritical and racist by being more sympathetic towards the Ukrainians because of their color, religion and race.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Mar 2022 20:55

Russian Air Force losses over #Ukraine in the past 26 hours:

- 1x Su-30SM multirole aircraft (pictured)
- 1 Su-34 strike aircraft
- 2 Su-25 close air support aircraft
- 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
- 1 Mi-8 transport helicopter
- 1 Orlan-10 UAV

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... zVSMTxVNGQ

sohamn · Post by **sohamn** » 05 Mar 2022 21:19

IndraD wrote:Russian Air Force losses over #Ukraine in the past 26 hours:

- 1x Su-30SM multirole aircraft (pictured)
- 1 Su-34 strike aircraft
- 2 Su-25 close air support aircraft
- 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
- 1 Mi-8 transport helicopter
- 1 Orlan-10 UAV

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... zVSMTxVNGQ

I fail to understand why Russia AF is flying low and slow and not using precision guided munitions from 45k feet? With the level of manpad proliferation within Ukraine one can’t really adopt this tactic without severe losses.

One explanation could be that Russia doesn’t really have a lot of sophisticated precision munitions, or have run out of them during the initial thrust.

Few other observations- the Mi-25 that got hit by the stinger - didn’t deploy any flares before getting hit, which also means that not only they don’t have an IR suppressor but they also don’t have an missile detection and flare dispenser.

Russia is fighting this war with 90% soviet era weapons and only 10% modern weapons. They might ultimately win the war but I think it was a strategic mistake in trying to consume the whole Ukraine.

John · Post by **John** » 05 Mar 2022 21:30

IndraD wrote:Russian Air Force losses over #Ukraine in the past 26 hours:

- 1x Su-30SM multirole aircraft (pictured)
- 1 Su-34 strike aircraft
- 2 Su-25 close air support aircraft
- 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
- 1 Mi-8 transport helicopter
- 1 Orlan-10 UAV

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... zVSMTxVNGQ

Actually it’s two Su-34 the other shootdown is not a Su-25

https://twitter.com/gvankeulen/status/1 ... 85609?s=21

I fail to understand why Russia AF is flying low and slow and not using precision guided munitions from 45k feet? With the level of manpad proliferation within Ukraine one can’t really adopt this tactic without severe losses.

Lack of PGMs and apparently Su-34 don’t have pods to use it either. The crashed planes have FAB-500 reportedly over two decades old.

Also Russians are flying low to avoid Ukr SAMs which are still active.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 05 Mar 2022 21:47

Sophisticated state of the art weapon systems supplied by NATO, state and non-state mercenaries from all over the world to assist them in fighting, so in a way Russia is fighting a world war all by itself. I think it was a mistake not to use airforce and heavy bombers to flatten resistance first and then move the infantry . It took US 3 weeks to enter Baghdad in 2003 because they spent the first 10 days eliminating manpads, and destroy whatever remained of Iraqi airforce and artillery . Russia, probably to avoid civilian casualties and maybe because of poor intelligence decided to just move the mechanized infantry and took heavy losses. Now that their airforce is finally active, they are flying low and taking more hits. This will be yet another signature Russian campaign, a war of attrition.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 05 Mar 2022 22:09

sohamn wrote:
I fail to understand why Russia AF is flying low and slow and not using precision guided munitions from 45k feet? With the level of manpad proliferation within Ukraine one can’t really adopt this tactic without severe losses.

One explanation could be that Russia doesn’t really have a lot of sophisticated precision munitions, or have run out of them during the initial thrust.

Probably for the same reason that the IAF did not use the SU-30s to strike Balakot i.e. potentially AG modes in Russian radars are not upto the same level as Western radars and also the potential lack of precision munitions. The Russian Air Force does CAS and hence low and slow via the SU-25. The newer SU-34 has now been introduced in Ukraine with better AG mapping but aren't there reports that one has already been shot down?

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 05 Mar 2022 22:14

It seems the Russians used precision munitions a few hours ago to destroy a warehouse distributing foreign-supplied weapons:

https://thepressunited.com/updates/russ ... ons-depot/

Another one from a few days ago. This was a "big box" store..is it possible the Ukranians were using it for storing weapons ? Why target that particular building otherwise.

https://www.space.com/russia-ukraine-wa ... lite-photo

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 05 Mar 2022 22:15

Pretty amazing to see how many Indians live in Ukraine!

Telugu man refuses to abandon two pet Jaguars and flee Donbas

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 05 Mar 2022 22:16

John wrote:
IndraD wrote:Russian Air Force losses over #Ukraine in the past 26 hours:

Just curious - since the Russians have captured most major military installations and airbases, presumably the captured hardware - including fighters etc - could be used ?

ShivS · Post by **ShivS** » 05 Mar 2022 22:19

ldev wrote:
sohamn wrote:
I fail to understand why Russia AF is flying low and slow and not using precision guided munitions from 45k feet? With the level of manpad proliferation within Ukraine one can’t really adopt this tactic without severe losses.

One explanation could be that Russia doesn’t really have a lot of sophisticated precision munitions, or have run out of them during the initial thrust.
Probably for the same reason that the IAF did not use the SU-30s to strike Balakot i.e. potentially AG modes in Russian radars are not upto the same level as Western radars and also the potential lack of precision munitions. The Russian Air Force does CAS and hence low and slow via the SU-25. The newer SU-34 has now been introduced in Ukraine with better AG mapping but aren't there reports that one has already been shot down?

Why would you use radars for Balakot? Stationary target.

I am sure that Russia used PGMs but they are limited to high value targets - lots of lesser value targets need artillery or CAS if your doctrine emphasises that. Only the US will use LGBs vs tanks.

John · Post by **John** » 05 Mar 2022 22:19

KL Dubey wrote:
John wrote:
Just curious - since the Russians have captured most major military installations and airbases, presumably the captured hardware - including fighters etc - could be used ?

Possible but so far the evidence post shoot down of 2 incidents indicate these are not even from Stingers but rather from Igla in Ukr inventory. I think it’s just a case of RusAF flying low and circling over targets with dumb bombs and getting shot down by manpads.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 05 Mar 2022 22:21

This Twitter handle is probably Ukrainian...seems like Ruskies lost another Mi-35M earlier today

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... _5wNEpAAAA

The last 2-3 days have been very expensive for Russian Air Force...they have been forced to use dumb bombs as their stocks of PGMs are running low. Wonder if recent losses will change Russian Armed Forces' tactics...probably they will start levelling cities (officially they have given civilians a chance to escape before it becomes ugly)...given their state of economy, I think they haven't had a chance to equip all of their forces will latest & greatest defensive hardware...

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 05 Mar 2022 22:26

John wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
Just curious - since the Russians have captured most major military installations and airbases, presumably the captured hardware - including fighters etc - could be used ?
Possible but so far the evidence post shoot down of 2 incidents indicate these are not even from Stingers but rather from Igla in Ukr inventory. I think it’s just a case of RusAF flying low and circling over targets with dumb bombs and getting shot down by manpads.

Did RuAF overestimate its capabilities or underestimate Ukraine's? Pretty much whatever Ukraine uses is already present & superseded by better ones in Russian inventory, which means that Russians know about the ins & outs of the systems and hopefully will have developed tactics & technologies to mitigate risks...clearly that option is not working.

Lots of lessons for India here...Pakis have a credible AD system...in the next 20 years (unless we go down hard on sickular path with Aman ki asha types of initiatives), we will have to consider going in to PoK in an offensive mode which means many of the things happening now in Ukraine will be applicable to us. I see IA & IAF purchasing lots of EW, MAWS & DIRCM hardware (if indigenous products are not ready/matured, we might go with Israeli ones) for our helicopters and aircrafts...

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 05 Mar 2022 22:34

ShivS wrote:
Why would you use radars for Balakot? Stationary target.

I am sure that Russia used PGMs but they are limited to high value targets - lots of lesser value targets need artillery or CAS if your doctrine emphasises that. Only the US will use LGBs vs tanks.

Even for stationary targets I would presume the use of SAR for positive identification and then depending on the kind of munition and guidance kit it has, you would need a targeting pod. SAR resolution is definitely better with AESA radars of which the Russians have none.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 Mar 2022 22:38

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 Mar 2022 22:42

Zynda wrote:This Twitter handle is probably Ukrainian...seems like Ruskies lost another Mi-35M earlier today

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... _5wNEpAAAA

The last 2-3 days have been very expensive for Russian Air Force...they have been forced to use dumb bombs as their stocks of PGMs are running low. Wonder if recent losses will change Russian Armed Forces' tactics...probably they will start levelling cities (officially they have given civilians a chance to escape before it becomes ugly)...given their state of economy, I think they haven't had a chance to equip all of their forces will latest & greatest defensive hardware...

surely, there ought to be a balanced coverage giving the happenings as seen by the russki side too.

the russkis are pasting the ukrainains and yet are shown as losing

black lentils onlee

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 05 Mar 2022 22:54

Zynda wrote:probably they will start levelling cities (officially they have given civilians a chance to escape before it becomes ugly)

Ukrainian militias have been murdering civilians trying to evacuate Mariupol. The Ukrainians will resist these "humanitarian corridors" and find ways to delay them, because they want to continue using civilians as human shields. This is the only way they can win.

John · Post by **John** » 05 Mar 2022 23:01

Zynda wrote: Did RuAF overestimate its capabilities or underestimate Ukraine's? Pretty much whatever Ukraine uses is already present & superseded by better ones in Russian inventory, which means that Russians know about the ins & outs of the systems and hopefully will have developed tactics & technologies to mitigate risks...clearly that option is not working.

Lots of lessons for India here...Pakis have a credible AD system...in the next 20 years (unless we go down hard on sickular path with Aman ki asha types of initiatives), we will have to consider going in to PoK in an offensive mode which means many of the things happening now in Ukraine will be applicable to us. I see IA & IAF purchasing lots of EW, MAWS & DIRCM hardware (if indigenous products are not ready/matured, we might go with Israeli ones) for our helicopters and aircrafts...

Putin wanted a quick conflict it was designed to be a Russian shock and awe, the idea is not long prolonged air campaign to soften targets. But rather an air campaign backed by immediate ground invasion to capture the capital to paralyze the military command and control. Also to support this they used saboteurs which they had in place even as far back as last year.

So they never wanted waste their air assets to neutralize air defense system since they hoped the stand off weapons coupled with invasion will get the job done in a week. They knew the vulnerabilities to Ukr Air defense system and their planes/helos don’t have adequate MWS or EO pods for PGM and that’s one of risks they didn’t fly many sorties.

ShivS · Post by **ShivS** » 05 Mar 2022 23:07

ldev wrote:
ShivS wrote:
Why would you use radars for Balakot? Stationary target.

I am sure that Russia used PGMs but they are limited to high value targets - lots of lesser value targets need artillery or CAS if your doctrine emphasises that. Only the US will use LGBs vs tanks.
Even for stationary targets I would presume the use of SAR for positive identification and then depending on the kind of munition and guidance kit it has, you would need a targeting pod. SAR resolution is definitely better with AESA radars of which the Russians have none.

What sort of identification would you need? We had the gps co ordinates - that’s enough - building won’t change location and you can’t see inside the building.

SAR targeting is for mobile targets - started with the F18 against ships.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 Mar 2022 23:25

ShivS wrote:
ldev wrote: Even for stationary targets I would presume the use of SAR for positive identification and then depending on the kind of munition and guidance kit it has, you would need a targeting pod. SAR resolution is definitely better with AESA radars of which the Russians have none.
What sort of identification would you need? We had the gps co ordinates - that’s enough - building won’t change location and you can’t see inside the building.

SAR targeting is for mobile targets - started with the F18 against ships.

precision guidance generally uses MIL grade GPS

The GPS that India has access to is the normal run of the mill GPS with its purposely built in errors

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Mar 2022 23:26

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-bu ... 30283.html 120 ka 28
Eu largest oil company buying Ru oil at record discount