Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Mar 2022 01:28

https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2022/ ... oss-russia
Photos: Thousands arrested at anti-war protests across Russia
Monitoring group says 4,366 people arrested in 56 cities at protests against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

uncle sam at work?

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 07 Mar 2022 01:40

Jay wrote:
ldev wrote:
Whatever one might say about Yanukovych, at least in so far as those discussions were concerned, he looked after Ukranian interests.
This is revisionist in so many ways. Yanukovych looked after his and Russian interests, not Ukranian. There is a reason why he was thrown out in a popular protest after an election which was influenced by Russian meddling to an extreme degree.

https://impact.gijn.org/case-studies/ya ... s-ukraine/

https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/viktor-y ... ne-russia/

https://www.rferl.org/a/lawyer-reveals- ... 86363.html

The point is that majority of Ukrainians want a pro EU policy and want to move away from Russian influence and have been supporting politicians who are pro west/EU.

Saying Zelenskyy was the reason for the war is saying that a sheet of glass is responsible because a rock crashed into it.

If he was looking after Russian interests only he would not have called for that party meeting where he argued for the dialogue with the EU as was noted in that December 2013 Reuters article. It was after that when he got into the weeds of the EU negotiations he realized that:

a) The EU was going to give him less than a billion dollars where Ukraine had upcoming debt repayments in the billions in the next 2-3 years.
b) There was no prospect of immediate EU membership, which meant the right to work and travel anywhere in the EU which was the opium the western Ukranians were seduced by was only a distant mirage.
c) The IMF also was insisting on past re-payments before they agreed for further aid and strict and painful re-structuring of the Ukranian economy, which may have been a good thing after all, but difficult for any politician to undertake.

That is when he swung back to Russia which helped him with the immediate billions Ukraine needed. In hindsight one can argue that he should have taken the EU deal and although Russia would have been against it, Russia was in a weaker position then to mount the kind of invasion it has now done.

Zelensky is responsible because he could have offered the guarantee of neutrality that Putin wanted. That would have averted the war at least for now and saved the Ukranian people from their current misery. The foremost duty of a head of state is to keep his people safe and Zelensky has failed in that.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 07 Mar 2022 02:05

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartb ... uagTg4&s=r

This looks a very interesting read on the economic sanctions regime affecting Russia

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 07 Mar 2022 02:10

ldev wrote: Zelensky is responsible because he could have offered the guarantee of neutrality that Putin wanted. That would have averted the war at least for now and saved the Ukranian people from their current misery. The foremost duty of a head of state is to keep his people safe and Zelensky has failed in that.

I have to agree with the above. The primary duty of a leader is to protect his citizens lives and their life savings. Preserve what they already have. The next step is to increase their prosperity. EU comes into the picture in that sense only.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 07 Mar 2022 02:26

vinod wrote:
ldev wrote: Zelensky is responsible because he could have offered the guarantee of neutrality that Putin wanted. That would have averted the war at least for now and saved the Ukranian people from their current misery. The foremost duty of a head of state is to keep his people safe and Zelensky has failed in that.
I have to agree with the above. The primary duty of a leader is to protect his citizens lives and their life savings. Preserve what they already have. The next step is to increase their prosperity. EU comes into the picture in that sense only.

Finland is in EU but not NATO and Turkey is part of NATO but could not get into EU. ukraine could have signed a Finland like treaty to not join NATO but would only join NATO but i guess Protests of 2014 spiralled out of control and some Facists elements joined in spooking the russians.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Mar 2022 03:15

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... ce=twitter

Ukraine open to discussing 'non-NATO models', negotiator tells Fox News

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 07 Mar 2022 04:07

Atmavik wrote:Russian infantry setups an Ambush against a UKR BRDM. the infantry does not have any ATGM or even an RPG. shows how poorly russians are equipped.

From a discord group I am part of (purely technical open source folks), a Russian living in Russia posted saying that 18+ year olds were sent to fight in Ukraine. May be Russia underestimated the resistance they would face. They were hoping that Zelensky would fold in less than a week. But the West egged him on.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 07 Mar 2022 04:12

Y. Kanan wrote:I think in the long run, embracing the west effectively spells the demise of Indian civilization, because it more or less ensures that Muslim culture will displace Hindu culture (for reasons too numerous to list here).

Why only Islamic culture? The chances are that it would be the western Christian culture that would replace all cultures in the world. We may be the last standing civilization against the western WASP-driven cultural dominance.

SoKo is already gone. Japan is a spent force. China is autocratic with no real culture as such after the cultural revolution. Mostly ballet/violin rather than their old art forms.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 07 Mar 2022 04:24

We should get all the shakti processor classes done soon and have at least 65 nm indigenous semi conductor technology in the next 5 years. There are open source OSes. An eco system will develop overnight if we are forced to use our own OS especially for 1.4 billion market. China is stupid and cant be trusted, but there will be several countries including Russia we can partner with, from silicon to semiconductors to chips to OS to ecosystem.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 07 Mar 2022 04:25

HOW CHEAP CHINESE TIRES EXPLAINS RUSSIA'S 'STALLED' 40-MILE-LONG MILITARY CONVOY IN UKRAINE || 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXGyXIROSho

PS: who supplies Tiers for our Military Trucks? i think its MRF for SU 30 .

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 07 Mar 2022 04:31

hanumadu wrote:We should get all the shakti processor classes done soon and have at least 65 nm indigenous semi conductor technology in the next 5 years. There are open source OSes. An eco system will develop overnight if we are forced to use our own OS especially for 1.4 billion market. China is stupid and cant be trusted, but there will be several countries including Russia we can partner with, from silicon to semiconductors to chips to OS to ecosystem.

we are looking for a 45 or even a 28 nm FAB. the challenges are immense but our IT minister gives me Hope. the reason for this 10 Billion investment is Strategic. we should take as much help as possible from the West.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYQkhL2K4y8

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 07 Mar 2022 04:40

Vayutuvan wrote:
Atmavik wrote:Russian infantry setups an Ambush against a UKR BRDM. the infantry does not have any ATGM or even an RPG. shows how poorly russians are equipped.
From a discord group I am part of (purely technical open source folks), a Russian living in Russia posted saying that 18+ year olds were sent to fight in Ukraine. May be Russia underestimated the resistance they would face. They were hoping that Zelensky would fold in less than a week. But the West egged him on.

Eventually Russia will overcome, but at what men and material cost? I don’t believe the nonsense of 15,000 dead Russians, but certainly total civilian and all combatants combined. The Russian army and AF weapon systems are very capable, but logistics are proving to be horrible. We don’t know what’s in the mind of the military planners.

This operation has the hallmarks of the combined Paki offensives of 1965, 1971 and 1999.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 Mar 2022 04:56

Looks like Indian Govt. gave a nudge ... Reporting is more balanced

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 Mar 2022 05:04

Coming from a leading historian this is a great opinion article.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cause-ukra ... 1646413200

The Two Blunders That Caused the Ukraine War
Robert Service, a leading historian of Russia, says Moscow will win the war but will lose the peace and fail to subjugate Ukraine. How Putin could be deposed

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 Mar 2022 05:08

https://time.com/6154189/russia-swift-c ... nce-trade/
Sanctions on Russia Could Drive Moscow Closer to Beijing and Change the Global Financial System

But perhaps the toughest measure is a ban on several Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system. SWIFT connects more than 11,000 financial institutions in more than 200 countries and facilitates the majority of global money transfers. It’s the lubricant of international trade and finance. Without it, moving money is slower and more expensive. “This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally,” the White House said.

Read More: The U.S. and E.U. Are Going After Putin’s Wealth. First They Need To Find It

It could also have an unintended consequence. Some experts say that Western sanctions are likely to bring Russia and China closer together economically—and that they may even pose a threat to the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global financial system.

“For an economy such as Russia that still relies a great deal on export revenues and on international trade more broadly, losing access to global finance is clearly a painful blow,” says Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics and trade policy at Cornell University and the former head of the IMF’s China Division.

There has been some debate on whether Moscow will resort to cryptocurrencies to circumvent sanctions. But for now, Prasad says “The restrictions on Russia’s access from the Western-dominated global financial system will undoubtedly drive it into a deeper economic embrace with China, in terms of both trade and financial dependence.”

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 07 Mar 2022 05:13

Mort Walker wrote:Eventually Russia will overcome, but at what men and material cost?

What I don't understand is why young inexperienced soldiers were sent in? 18+ means they were given a few months of training if not weeks. But then maybe they are the right ones to fight due to having quick reflexes to fight a modern war with modern weapons which have video game-like interface.

John · Post by **John** » 07 Mar 2022 05:19

Vayutuvan wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:Eventually Russia will overcome, but at what men and material cost?
What I don't understand is why young inexperienced soldiers were sent in? 18+ means they were given a few months of training if not weeks. But then maybe they are the right ones to fight due to having quick reflexes to fight a modern war with modern weapons which have video game-like interface.

Low costs and able to deny any casualties. Also some of them are essentially signed on to short term contracts via companies Putin and co own. So they don’t get any military perks or salary.

Top brass did as much possible to skim the money from military so they can pocket it.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 07 Mar 2022 05:23

https://razomforukraine.org/about-us/board/

Mariya Soroko was on Fox News this afternoon. She got almost 15 minutes there. That is a lot of time on one of the major cable news networks of the US.

Div · Post by **Div** » 07 Mar 2022 05:30

First ever combat use of the S-400?
https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/ ... CYodMpAAAA

John · Post by **John** » 07 Mar 2022 05:32

Div wrote:First ever combat use of the S-400?
https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/ ... CYodMpAAAA

Was just about to post it not confirmed though

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 07 Mar 2022 06:00

Vayutuvan wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:Eventually Russia will overcome, but at what men and material cost?
What I don't understand is why young inexperienced soldiers were sent in? 18+ means they were given a few months of training if not weeks. But then maybe they are the right ones to fight due to having quick reflexes to fight a modern war with modern weapons which have video game-like interface.

I have been watching many videos and the Russian weapons are Used are mostly T - 72 , BMP-2, MI 25 and Mi17 and the Ural trucks.

I don’t see many T-90( forget abt T 14) or K-52 except for a few RT videos. More Bmp grad than smerch. And a few TOS-1

Weapons are definitely having issues. Wonder how they pass our stringent summer, winter, monsoon trials ?

For us it’s time to get off this Junk and induct our own. Get the damn krestel, Atags, k 9 and the other kalyani guns

I know it’s not the full picture as it’s mostly ukr uploading videos but I think there gear is showing it’s true colors.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 07 Mar 2022 06:03

So, cheap Chinese tyres got about 3000 vehicles to within 25 miles of Kiev and then all suffered sidewall blow outs. And over three days they have not been able to get spares from Russia. What do ‘analysts’ smoke with the media that report these flights of fancy?

Perhaps these columns are awaiting the phalanx from Mariupol. They plan to do a Berlin 1945 on Kiev. I sincerely hope Ukraine surrenders before they encircle Kiev.

Human lives are at stake.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 07 Mar 2022 06:23

Atmavik wrote:
hanumadu wrote:We should get all the shakti processor classes done soon and have at least 65 nm indigenous semi conductor technology in the next 5 years. There are open source OSes. An eco system will develop overnight if we are forced to use our own OS especially for 1.4 billion market. China is stupid and cant be trusted, but there will be several countries including Russia we can partner with, from silicon to semiconductors to chips to OS to ecosystem.
we are looking for a 45 or even a 28 nm FAB. the challenges are immense but our IT minister gives me Hope. the reason for this 10 Billion investment is Strategic. we should take as much help as possible from the West.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYQkhL2K4y8

That's foreign technology though. We wan't our own lithographic machines.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 07 Mar 2022 06:44

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -look-like
It’s time to ask: what would a Ukraine-Russia peace deal look like?
Anatol Lieven, Fri 4 Mar 2022
There is still the possibility of a diplomatic settlement that would bring an early end to this dreadful war and Russian military withdrawal while safeguarding the vital interests of Ukraine. Indeed, if the Russians are ever to withdraw, a diplomatic agreement on the terms of withdrawal will be necessary.
The first round of Ukrainian-Russian talks has now taken place in Belarus, and a member of the Ukrainian delegation has stated that “The parties identified a number of priority topics in which certain solutions were outlined”.
The West should back a peace agreement and Russian withdrawal by offering Russia the lifting of all new sanctions imposed on it. The offer to Ukraine should be a massive reconstruction package that will also help Ukraine to move towards the West economically and politically rather than militarily – just as Finland and Austria were able to do during the Cold War despite their neutral status.
The demands by the Russian side are that Ukraine should sign a treaty of neutrality; engage in “demilitarisation” and “denazification”; and recognise Russian sovereignty over Crimea, which was seized back by Russia after the Ukrainian Revolution. These demands are a mixed bag of the acceptable, the unacceptable, and the undefined.
The option of neutrality for Ukraine has often been called “Finlandisation”, and perhaps the determined and unified Ukrainian response to Russian aggression over the past week has given a new meaning to that term in the case of Ukraine. For like the Finns in the “winter war” of 1939-40, the Ukrainians have also been abandoned militarily by the West, which has declared publicly and repeatedly that it has no intention of fighting to defend them.
On the other hand, it seems that the extraordinary courage and resolution with which the Finns fought convinced Stalin that to rule Finland would be too much of a challenge. Finland became the only part of the former Russian Empire not to be incorporated in the USSR, and during the cold war, though neutral by treaty, was able to develop as a successful social market democracy. Similarly, we must hope that the courage and determination of the Ukrainians has convinced Putin that it will be impossible to run Ukraine as a Russian client state, and neutrality is the best deal he is going to get.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly hinted that a treaty of neutrality may be on offer; and he is right to do so. For two things have been made absolutely clear by this war: that Russia will fight to prevent Ukraine becoming a military ally of the West, and the West will not fight to defend Ukraine. In view of this, to keep open the possibility of an offer of Nato membership that Nato has no intention of ever honouring, and asking Ukrainians to die for this fiction, is worse than hypocritical.
As to “demilitarisation” and “denazification”, the meaning and terms of these will have to be negotiated. Demilitarisation is obviously unacceptable if it means that Ukraine must unilaterally dissolve its armed forces; but the latest statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has suggested that Russia would accept a ban on missiles based in Ukraine. This could be modelled on a similar guarantee to the US that ended the Cuba Missile Crisis.
......
Gautam
PS A promise of neutrality was perhaps acceptable a month or so ago. Mr. Putin may not accept it at this moment. Crimea and the Russian speaking Eastern parts are now forfeit. Strictly going by just economics, Ukraine has nothing that the EU needs, what it has (agricultural products) is needed by Russia. However, the population wants to be able to work in a rich EU and aspires a similar lifestyle. Drab Russia does not excite the population.

John · Post by **John** » 07 Mar 2022 06:52

I have been watching many videos and the Russian weapons are Used are mostly T - 72 , BMP-2, MI 25 and Mi17 and the Ural trucks.

I don’t see many T-90( forget abt T 14) or K-52 except for a few RT videos. More Bmp grad than smerch. And a few TOS-1

They only have 300 or so T-90s, so far 6 have been taken out and couple captured by Ukr. The newest and supposedly best tank is T-72B3 obr.2016 which also has been spotted .

Shameek · Post by **Shameek** » 07 Mar 2022 07:10

Atmavik wrote: I have been watching many videos and the Russian weapons are Used are mostly T - 72 , BMP-2, MI 25 and Mi17 and the Ural trucks.
......
I know it’s not the full picture as it’s mostly ukr uploading videos but I think there gear is showing it’s true colors.

It is tough to figure out if the videos on SM are real/fake. But there have been videos of KA-52, Mi-28, Su-30SM, Su-34 etc. being used as well as shot down. Also reports of S400 being used.

We also don't know if the losses are due to tactics, equipment superiority, maintenance or training.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 07 Mar 2022 07:57

vijayk wrote:Looks like Indian Govt. gave a nudge ... Reporting is more balanced

I don't know if GoI gave a nudge or not, but AFAIC it's about bloody time Palki and WION started getting a bit more balanced in their reporting. So far it just seems that they (and, frankly, many Indian media houses) are just fighting to get their Nishaan-e-Ukraina awards. It's fine to publish the Ukr POV, but for crying out loud, there is a Russian POV too.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 07 Mar 2022 08:00

g.sarkar wrote: PS A promise of neutrality was perhaps acceptable a month or so ago. Mr. Putin may not accept it at this moment. Crimea and the Russian speaking Eastern parts are now forfeit. Strictly going by just economics, Ukraine has nothing that the EU needs, what it has (agricultural products) is needed by Russia. However, the population wants to be able to work in a rich EU and aspires a similar lifestyle. Drab Russia does not excite the population.

a minimum of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk%E ... t_Republic

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 07 Mar 2022 08:03

kit wrote:... enough reason for India to intervene militarily.. against the Ukranians !!

This is crazy talk; if you are serious you are smoking some funny weed, if you are joking you have a demented sense of humour.

India, which thinks not once, not twice but a hundred times before sending IAF planes into POK -- you think this same India is willing (or even able) to start active military operations half way around the world?

Div · Post by **Div** » 07 Mar 2022 08:17

Looking at the huge amount of armaments that are strewn about in Ukraine, I would say that in the near future, there are likely going to be a lot of small arms, RPGs, Manpads, etc. coming on to the black market.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 07 Mar 2022 09:03

Atmavik wrote: a minimum of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk%E ... t_Republic

You, Atmavik ji, are a tough but fair negotiator. I wouldn't want to be on the other side of the table facing you.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 07 Mar 2022 09:17

Vayutuvan wrote:
Atmavik wrote: a minimum of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk%E ... t_Republic

You, Atmavik ji, are a tough but fair negotiator. I wouldn't want to be on the other side of the table facing you.

This isn't too different from what Gen Bakshi was predicting on Republic TV three days ago.

According to him Russia will conquer the entire Pakraine coast for keeps, and convert it to a landlocked country. It will incorporate the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, and possibly the territory all the way to Kharkov. The rest of Pakraine will be demilitarized and converted to a toothless/puppet state. He thought the siege of Kiev is currently a diversion for the above "real" objectives.

Not sure if Belarus will get to grab some territory too...

If this comes to pass, it will be an object lesson to other countries that are nothing but "crows with borrowed peacock feathers" (as one BRF member put it in another thread a few months ago).

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 07 Mar 2022 09:22

@KL Dubey ji, I love Pakraine coined by you.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 07 Mar 2022 09:28

I find it shocking that despite deep modernization efforts, Russian soldiers are carrying rifles without any optics. Even the newer AK12 rifles. Radio intercept indicate severe lack of SDRs in service.

Div · Post by **Div** » 07 Mar 2022 09:28

Analysis by two American researchers specialising in Russia/military conflicts.
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1vAxRkddrOrKl

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 07 Mar 2022 09:37

Vayutuvan wrote:@KL Dubey ji, I love Pakraine coined by you.

Whaat to do, saar...both coundries went out of their way to inspire this concatenation.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 07 Mar 2022 09:39

Thakur_B wrote:I find it shocking that despite deep modernization efforts, Russian soldiers are carrying rifles without any optics. Even the newer AK12 rifles. Radio intercept indicate severe lack of SDRs in service.

I wonder if the Russian order of battle in this conflict is properly known. Did they start with throwing their best corps/armies into Pakraine, or have they been using lower-grade units all throughout and holding back the best resources for the final knockout punch or to guard against any conflict with NATO?

For example, we have been hearing of a massive armada in the black sea ready to strike the coast, but nothing has happened yet.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 07 Mar 2022 09:42

Pakrain? Alhamdullillah, Pakrain it shall be. Currently, it is already quite easy for Pakrain citizens to come and work/live in Germany. In case of a divided and conquered land, it will be very easy for its citizens to come to Germany and work as guest workers and Azul takers. Germany will prefer to get blond blue eyed people that will assimilate easily.
Gautam

pravula · Post by **pravula** » 07 Mar 2022 09:46

I think Poland is the Pak, Uk is just Afghanistan redux. Poland is gonna be awash with all sort of weapons soon.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 07 Mar 2022 09:51

Div wrote:First ever combat use of the S-400?
https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/ ... CYodMpAAAA

Good to have full tweet here for porki lurkers

:

UKR Air Force Su-27 jet near Kiev was shot down by Russian S400 from Belarus — 150KM away; setting a world record. The pilot was Ukraine’s legendary Colonel Oleksandr Oksanchenko who was well known for his airshow performances.— now dead & awarded title of hero of Ukraine.