Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 07 Mar 2022 21:17

Zynda wrote:Don't know if there is a method to the madness of Russian Air Force's tactics, but their aircrafts have been falling out of Ukr skies like flies. Clearly some to many of the Ukr AD/SAM units are active...I am thinking that most of these AD Radars will be on Switch-OFF or Standby mode and NATO feeds info about ATM to Ukr forces which will at opportune time switch ON the radar...else I don't know why the Kh-31P, Kh-58 family of missiles are missing in action (or perhaps they aren't that effective) and if Russian Aircrafts are carrying EW pods on them and if them pods are not being that effective. Anyways, as of now Russian Elint & SEAD capabilities don't look effective...

We can't evaluate the performance of the RuAF unless we know:

- Losses per 100 sorties
- Ukrainian losses.
- Losses per SAM fired
- Availability of aircraft.

In Syria (where every RuAf squadron was rotated) aircraft availability was very high. Negligible losses due to maintenance failure or pilot error.
Until the data tells me otherwise, `falling like flies' is not a description I'd use.
To give a reference point. US in Iraq during and after GW-2 lost 29 aircraft and 129 helicopters.
Afghanistan losses for NATO were 33 aircraft and 118 helicopters. Another 27 transport aircraft were lost.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 Mar 2022 21:17

SwamyG wrote:Republic TV reported about a talk between Putin-Modi-Zelensky. True?

Modi-Zelensky were supposed to talk
Putin-Modi talked.

Not sure if all three talked. Would be great if true.

John · Post by **John** » 07 Mar 2022 21:26

Kherson Airport was attached by Ukr forces up to 30 helos were destroyed supposedly. I find it hard to believe but lot of chatter on it.

There was visual sat images confirmation from couple days ago shows there were 45 Russian helos in that helicopter staging area. We might have to wait for Sat images to prove or disprove this, explosions where recorded from Kherson during the night so something was happening.

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status ... 62337?s=21

Also an Mi-35 or 24 was shot down and looks like only one not two Su-34 were shot down last night, it broke apart in two adding to the confusion.

https://twitter.com/babaktaghvaee/statu ... 16617?s=21

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 Mar 2022 21:38

Thakur_B wrote:
IndraD wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-60637980
Indian medical student stuck in Ukraine with jaguar, panther

Patil has bought 23kg of sheep, turkey and chicken meat from neighbouring villages at prices 4 times higher than normal. "My big cats have been spending nights in the basement with me. They are scared. They are eating less. I can't leave them"
How long before the cats turn on him?

I like this guy. While he has “Nawabi/ Raja big cat owner” vibes going on, at least he isn’t deserting them. And so far not demanding that he be brought home in government privilege, as if that’s his birthright.

Sachin wrote:
Thakur_B wrote:How long before the cats turn on him?
What kind of country is Ukraine? Do they allow wild animals to be reared as pets? At this rate if all these Indian 'students' are flown back along with their pets, our national parks and zoos will also get a good number of animals .

Many countries allow private ownership of such animals, provided you can prove that you have the infrastructure for it. This includes Russia, South Africa and USA.

Of course interpretation of ‘infrastructure’ may vary as per nation. This some countries you may need an actual min zoo, others not so much.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 Mar 2022 21:48

Deans wrote: …
….
To give a reference point. US in Iraq during and after GW-2 lost 29 aircraft and 129 helicopters.
Afghanistan losses for NATO were 33 aircraft and 118 helicopters. Another 27 transport aircraft were lost.

Interesting data. But over what time period?

MeshaVishwas · Post by **MeshaVishwas** » 07 Mar 2022 21:50

Great perspective from Ex NSA Shiv Shankar Menon

sajaym · Post by **sajaym** » 07 Mar 2022 21:57

What the media and the aam janta don't realise is that
wars are about the end objectives, and not about the optics and the numbers...Eg. There are a lot of film clippings of IAF fighters going down during the Bangladesh ops and pakis claimed IAF lost more aircraft than the PAF. Anyone around the globe seeing those videos and reading those figures at that time would've thought that 'the Indians are getting hammered'...and yet one fine day...POOF! went East Pakistan. Not on Putin's side but, whether he and his forces have failed cant be said until it is clear whether he has achieved his end objectives. Picture abhi baaki hai...

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 07 Mar 2022 21:58

Baikul wrote:
Deans wrote: …
….
To give a reference point. US in Iraq during and after GW-2 lost 29 aircraft and 129 helicopters.
Afghanistan losses for NATO were 33 aircraft and 118 helicopters. Another 27 transport aircraft were lost.
Interesting data. But over what time period?

Iraq 2003-9
Afghanistan 2003-20

While the time period is long, there was negligible enemy activity. Sortie rate of RuAF over the past week would probably equal US sorties in a year in either Iraq or Afghanistan.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 Mar 2022 22:06

Deans wrote:
Baikul wrote:
Interesting data. But over what time period?
Iraq 2003-9
Afghanistan 2003-20

While the time period is long, there was negligible enemy activity. Sortie rate of RuAF over the past week would probably equal US sorties in a year in either Iraq or Afghanistan.

And hence my opinion that casualty rates of RuAF would be significantly higher because they’re in a more intense combat environment.

I think that to get a better sense of how significant and these losses are to the Russians, we would need to understand what percentage of Russian aircraft capacity is being attrited. More than raw numbers this would also tell us how long they can continue.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 07 Mar 2022 22:08

sajaym wrote:What the media and the aam janta don't realise is that
wars are about the end objectives, and not about the optics and the numbers...Eg. There are a lot of film clippings of IAF fighters going down during the Bangladesh ops and pakis claimed IAF lost more aircraft than the PAF. Anyone around the globe seeing those videos and reading those figures at that time would've thought that 'the Indians are getting hammered'...and yet one fine day...POOF! went East Pakistan. Not on Putin's side but, whether he and his forces have failed cant be said until it is clear whether he has achieved his end objectives. Picture abhi baaki hai...

True. There is no word of Ukrainian losses. Notwithstanding what NATO is saying, Ukr losses cannot be replaced. Russian losses can.
If the Ukrainians have lost 50 aircraft (which Ukr claims Russia lost) than that is half the Ukie air force's inventory of modern fighters.
While Ukraine had about 100 aircraft pre-war, availability (even if its on the higher side) would be 2/3rd, so its air force has almost ceased to
exist. The same could be said for its SAMs & drones - apart from MANPADS.
Losses admitted by each side (fighter aircraft only) are 12 Ukrainian and 9 Russian losses. If that means the Ukr air force is largely intact, the problem is they are rapidly running out of airfields.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Mar 2022 22:11

Guess which country has the maximum number of big cats as pets?

Ukraine is perhaps somewhere half way between western Europe's openness and Russia's insularity. They're desperately trying to break away from the bleak future offered by the Putin umbrella. At the very best, they'll do as well as common Russians, which is a pathetic life under a dictator. Can't fault them for trying can we?

Much as Indian interests in the near-medium term are served by a strong Russia, my patience is running out of this ill conceived and ill executed Special Military Operation. They will probably bomb the place to hell now. It's got disaster written all over it. That both sides are now said to be employing mercenaries doesn't fundamentally alter the picture.

Ukrainians are stepping up in the fight. They're getting covert western support in the form of intelligence and weaponry - but that doesn't take away credit of facing a seemingly overwhelming Russian Army and holding ground risking their lives while their cities and homes are destroyed, women and children are dispersed as refugees. Thats what the world sees, they have won the perception war already.

Once we get our remaining people out, India should re-evaluate the risks of tying its strategic imperatives to an unpopular, unreliable dictator and his regime. We dont want to be dealing with Putin's master strokes as well. Don't forget he signed a "limitless cooperation agreement" with Panda.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Mar 2022 22:19

rsingh wrote: Well people loose Visa, chreap Spain holiday, youtube, Iphonwa, Mac books, Amazone, backoffice job etc are protesting. Quite normal

You're describing us poor IT/VT folks saar...

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 07 Mar 2022 22:22

There was a joke during the Cold War. Russian general surveying Brussels, “That was fast, too bad we lost the air war”.

John · Post by **John** » 07 Mar 2022 22:35

True. There is no word of Ukrainian losses. Notwithstanding what NATO is saying, Ukr losses cannot be replaced. Russian losses can.
If the Ukrainians have lost 50 aircraft (which Ukr claims Russia lost) than that is half the Ukie air force's inventory of modern fighters.

Ukraine only had only 50-60 operation jets at the start of the conflict and some of them got taken out when their airfields got hit FYI. So they have no more than dozen or two hidden and avoiding Russian fighters not enough to be a threat but enough to be a nuisance. They did lose two Su-25 couple days ago but few more are still seen flying one of them was spotted today. They really needed Poland or another nation to supply with additional planes but looks like the plan feel thru.

Lot is made of NATO Intel but Ukr seems to have an army of cheap drones to provide surveillance in fact both sides seem to be using cheap commercial drones for real time Intel.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... 29413?s=21

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 Mar 2022 22:39

sanjaykumar wrote:….

When Ukrainians settled on the prairies in Canada, the English considered them subhuman. Literally not white. It is to Canada’s credit that society has moved on.
…..

Older perceptions aren’t relevant because the world changes. You have yourself said it about Canada. Same holds for Irish and Italian immigrants to the US- initially treated with contempt, now equals and more. Jews have their own story. Why would it be different for Ukrainians?

sanjaykumar wrote:…. I was a ship’s surgeon once on a Russian owned expedition ship. It had Europeans on board from Cardiff to Vladivostok..

Just this sounds like a great story saar. It’s almost like some of the books one read a long time ago. Ship’s surgeon on a long voyage….. drama … mystery ..maybe Agatha Christie steps in

. But seriously, care to share it somewhere on this forum?

John · Post by **John** » 07 Mar 2022 22:57

Ukraine claims to have taken out Vasily Bykov, looking at this video I can’t make that call. Could be another merchant ship but does look it is partially sunk either way it’s bad.

https://youtu.be/pMQ6v-6wIEc

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian ... sily_Bykov

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Mar 2022 23:49

apparently this was involved in attack on Snake Island

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 08 Mar 2022 00:18

Im the Dim wants a role in the Yukraine-Roos peace negotiations.

Imran Khan @ImranKhanPTI

Earlier today I spoke with EU Council President @CharlesMichel about the Ukraine situation. Shared concern over continued military conflict, highlighted its adverse economic impact on developing countries, stressed urgent need for ceasefire & de-escalation.

I emphasized the importance of humanitarian relief & reiterated call for a solution through dialogue & diplomacy. We agreed that countries like Pakistan could play a facilitating role in this endeavour. I look forward to close engagement to promote shared objectives.

EU Council Prez, after the call..." who the heck put a call through from this guy?"

https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status ... 2681043973

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 08 Mar 2022 00:32

Next: Imran demands Pakistan should be made part of EU to fight human trafficking.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 08 Mar 2022 01:04

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 08 Mar 2022 01:20

Prime Minister speaks with His Excellency President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine

Prime Minister speaks with His Excellency President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine
March 07, 2022

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi spoke earlier today with His Excellency President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine.

President Zelenskyy briefed the Prime Minister in detail about the conflict situation and the ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Prime Minister expressed deep concern about the ongoing conflict and resultant humanitarian crisis. Prime Minister reiterated his call for immediate cessation of violence and noted that India has always stood for peaceful resolution of issues and direct dialogue between the two parties.

Prime Minister thanked Ukrainian authorities for their facilitation in evacuating more than 20000 Indian citizens from Ukraine. He expressed deep concern for safety and security of Indian students still remaining in Ukraine and emphasized the need for their quick and safe evacuation.

New Delhi
March 07, 2022

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 08 Mar 2022 01:26

The commodity markets are going crazy:

Nickel was up 82% on the LME in a single day

Oil hit $130 briefly on news about a potential embargo on Russian oil exports before the German Chancellor announced that Germany will continue to import Russian oil and gas.

The US sent a delegation to Venezuela of all places to ask them to increase oil production, after years of sanctions.

The US has requested Saudi Arabia to increase oil production but the Saudis have so far refused. And the Saudi Oil Minister cancelled his appearance at CERAweek, the big oil and gas conference in Houston at the last minute. The White House is mulling a trip to Saudi by Biden to repair US relations with Saudi Arabia, but I wonder whether it will do any good given MBS's current mood vs the US.

Mohammad bin Salman had this to say about Biden understanding/misunderstanding him:

The US is furiously trying to conclude the Iran nuke deal, so that Iranian oil can flow to the market and take the pressure of prices, but Russia now wants written guarantees from the US that Russian trade with Iran will fall outside the purview of the current sanctions imposed because of Ukraine. And that is because the Iran nuke deal specifies that all signatories to the accord will have un-impeded trade with Iran after the deal is signed. And Russia is a very important part of the Iran nuke deal because excess Iranian enriched uranium has been sequestered in Russia.

And the Biden administration said that they were the grown ups who had assumed power in the US after the tumultuous Trump years. Makes one nostalgic for those "tumultuous" years of cheap crude oil and normal inflation when the most excitement on a given day was a mean spirited Trump tweet vs today when we are standing at the edge of a global thermonuclear exchange with the so called adults in charge.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Mar 2022 01:30

vijayk wrote:
SwamyG wrote:Republic TV reported about a talk between Putin-Modi-Zelensky. True?
Modi-Zelensky were supposed to talk
Putin-Modi talked.

Not sure if all three talked. Would be great if true.

Modi spoke to Putin on Feb 24th/25th March 2nd and March 7th. Such high level talks cannot be just for evacuation. Modi spoke to Zelensky twice (Feb 26th & March 7th).

Putin-Zelensky have a war going on, they are too preoccupied to worry about some logistics over evacuation. Putin spoke to Modi for 50mns recently, Zelensky spoke to Modi for 35 mns.

My speculation is that Modi is playing an arbiter or interlocutor role, along with others. Macron has spoken to Putin 4 times since war started, 11 times in the last month. France never tows the line of Unkil blindly. Putin has spoken to Chinese, Turkish and Israeli leaders.

India is just an onlooker. I see these talks under such a context. Also by abataining India has forced the World to accept it is a power in its own light. India abstaining from something in 2022 is different from say what it did several decades ago.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 08 Mar 2022 01:30

Per India Today PM suggested direct Volodmyr Vladimir talks
Now that the election is done and won NaMo aka Vishwaguru is back
I still stand by my earlier post NaMo will try for a Reverse Tashkent and get both to New Delhi for a mega summit

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Mar 2022 01:34

Considering the flurry of talks in Turkey etc, in terms of political objective, the chess game is entering the late middle game. Probably a short endgame.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 08 Mar 2022 01:38

Prime Minister speaks with His Excellency Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation

Prime Minister speaks with His Excellency Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation
March 07, 2022

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi spoke on phone today with His Excellency Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation.The two leaders discussed the evolving situation in Ukraine. President Putin briefed Prime Minister Modi on the status of negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian teams. Prime Minister Modi welcomed the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and expressed hope that they would lead to cessation of the conflict. He suggested that a direct conversation between President Putin and President Zelenskyy may greatly assist the ongoing peace efforts.

Prime Minister Modi conveyed his deep concern for the safety and security of the Indian students still remaining in Sumy. President Putin briefed Prime Minister about the ongoing measures related to humanitarian corridors for facilitating evacuation of civilians including Indian students.

New Delhi
March 07, 2022

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Mar 2022 01:54

Russia had last year tested its internet security by disconnecting from the internet, as per Reuters. It is like they gamed everything.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/russ ... 021-07-22/

John · Post by **John** » 08 Mar 2022 02:10

Lot is made about NLAW and Javelin but these are apparently responsible for good chunk of kills. It completely remote so operator can fire and control the missile which is in diff location. It is not even top down attack missile but that’s doesn’t stop
It from taken out T-72 series turret in one hit.

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/ ... 88674?s=21

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skif_(ATGM)

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 08 Mar 2022 02:39

Talking too often with no significant results is Macron style. Modi should not get into that mode.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 08 Mar 2022 02:43

The only results here for India in the short term are return of the Indian students, which has nothing to do with the US-Russia conflict.

Keeping this on the forefront with Russia makes it clear that the russians will not be bombing foreign nationals who are being used as human shields by the Ukrainian Nazis and their EU/US buddies. Not making it clear that Russia is working to help the students just keeps the water muddy enough for Ukrainian nazis to use non-whites as human shields.

kit · Post by **kit** » 08 Mar 2022 03:02

https://www.newsbharati.com/Encyc/2022/ ... ports.html

Amid all this there are reports that India might get a discounted oil directly from Russia if India chooses to trade with Russian companies. Some sources are suggesting the discount could be as high as 27%. In its latest tender issued this week, the state-owned refiner, Indian Oil, said it would accept Russian and Black Sea loading grades on a delivered at place (DAP) basis or cost-inclusive freight (CIF) basis.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 08 Mar 2022 03:44

kit wrote: ... on a delivered at place (DAP) basis or cost-inclusive freight (CIF) basis.

That means if the tankers are sunk or blockaded, Russians don't get paid. Good enough. That will spur our other suppliers to give discounts and even possibly increase oil production to service India. Now is the time to bargain hard with oil cartels.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 08 Mar 2022 04:02

Rsatchi wrote:Per India Today PM suggested direct Volodmyr Vladimir talks
Now that the election is done and won NaMo aka Vishwaguru is back
I still stand by my earlier post NaMo will try for a Reverse Tashkent and get both to New Delhi for a mega summit

So a few more Russians and Ukrainians in Goa ?

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 08 Mar 2022 04:03

SwamyG wrote:Considering the flurry of talks in Turkey etc, in terms of political objective, the chess game is entering the late middle game. Probably a short endgame.

The biggest obstacle to a settlement will be a ‘Zelensky doing a kejriwal’

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 08 Mar 2022 04:11

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... mbergdaily

“No matter how precarious and challenging the international situation may be, China and Russia will maintain a strategic focus and steadily advance our comprehensive strategic partnership and coordination,” he said.

Russia heading the way of Pakistan and N Korea.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 08 Mar 2022 04:59

Rsatchi wrote:I still stand by my earlier post-NaMo will try for a Reverse Tashkent and get both to New Delhi for a mega summit

Hold the peace talks in Madras and call it Camp Dravid.

yogeshkumar · Post by **yogeshkumar** » 08 Mar 2022 05:14

I think India should assert the use of INR on global stage. This is the perfect timing. We don't have to enslave ourselves for USD/Euro (they e-print those out of thin air here in US/EU).

We should trade Oil/Gas from Russia via Rupee/Ruble exchange (and barter when possible). As we have seen, over accumulating foreign reserve (USD/EUR) can be a bottleneck if we run foul of US bureaucrats. They simply seized (stole) most of Russia's foreign reserves with couple of mouse clicks.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 08 Mar 2022 05:31

eklavya wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... mbergdaily

“No matter how precarious and challenging the international situation may be, China and Russia will maintain a strategic focus and steadily advance our comprehensive strategic partnership and coordination,” he said.
Russia heading the way of Pakistan and N Korea.

That's what the chinese guy in the article said. Not a russian. Don't read too much into it...nothing new that we don't know already. Russia and China are neighbors, and there is no way to prevent them from cooperating...just like India and Russia have been doing for decades.

The only panacea is to develop national strength and independence. Tolerate no BS but work with all..."A no bhadraah kratavo yantu vishvatah".

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 08 Mar 2022 05:58

anupmisra wrote:
Rsatchi wrote:I still stand by my earlier post-NaMo will try for a Reverse Tashkent and get both to New Delhi for a mega summit
Hold the peace talks in Madras and call it Camp Dravid.

They will be greeted at the airport by Stalin himself

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 08 Mar 2022 06:03

eklavya wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... mbergdaily

“No matter how precarious and challenging the international situation may be, China and Russia will maintain a strategic focus and steadily advance our comprehensive strategic partnership and coordination,” he said.
Russia heading the way of Pakistan and N Korea.

and India is heading the way of?

Germany? Japan?

US lapdog?

Indians had better get their heads out of their asses - years of Anglo brainwashing has had its impact. Macaulay was a Whig, the forerunner of the modern Anglo American empire.

We are dealing with an American empire that respects no boundaries, no limits, and no partners. They have only submissive slaves. This country, the USA, directly intervened in *our* country in 2020 with the farmers riots. They intervene *today* with the hijab riots. These are opening salvos.

There is no peace with the hegemon.

As for Ukraine, they became the Pakistan for America. The tool, the catspaw, the "divide-and-rule". Sow the wind, and you will reap the whirlwind.