Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 12 Mar 2022 03:26

Russian strategy has been fairly obvious.

it started with a show of force to prompt a Ukrainian
capitulation, secondary cities were attacked to demonstrate they were serious. Now Kiev is being encircled. Of course that’s what the 60 km column was about. To demonstrate the response to “dare me”.

Russians lost 30 million the last time Europeans felt their oats. They will have no compunction pulverising Kiev.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 12 Mar 2022 03:38

Poland has said they can't take any more refugees.

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 12 Mar 2022 03:41

That is because Poland and Hungary got sanctioned by the EU, lol.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 Mar 2022 04:07

Elon Musk has been asked by the Wokes to turn off all Tesla vehicles in Russia

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 12 Mar 2022 04:10

There are now reports of Syrians fighting in UKR, soon Pakis will also make there way to UKR

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 12 Mar 2022 04:19

I have been waiting for Khalsa Aid to fight the Russians.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 12 Mar 2022 04:30

sanjaykumar wrote:I have been waiting for Khalsa Aid to fight the Russians.

Savage

Expected those chaps to land up with their cauldrons and stir sticks to open a kitchen for 100, while their social media/PR goes crazy on the love they being to the dark corners of the world etc with “never forget poor Bindu” posters right below. Had opportunity to watch them closely in a disaster zone and thought it was a cynical PR exercise like thurnberg-on-sidewalk

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 12 Mar 2022 04:31

Biggest fear is this is going to be great opportunity for ISIS to infiltrate in large numbers into Europe.

surinder · Post by **surinder** » 12 Mar 2022 04:50

bala wrote:Prior to world war II the Indian Exchequer and Britain Exchequer were separate. After World War II, the US asked Britain to pay for expenses. Britain deducted the costs from the Indian Exchequer, leaving India as pauper/poor nation.

Interesting. Can you give me some more details or links to citations for me to understand this better.
Thanks.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 Mar 2022 04:55

surinder wrote:
bala wrote:Prior to world war II the Indian Exchequer and Britain Exchequer were separate. After World War II, the US asked Britain to pay for expenses. Britain deducted the costs from the Indian Exchequer, leaving India as pauper/poor nation.
Interesting. Can you give me some more details or links to citations for me to understand this better.
Thanks.

At the start of the war, the British Exchequer began drawing 1 million Pound Sterling EVERY DAY from the India Exchequer until the end of the war.

There are records in the UK which show that.

surinder · Post by **surinder** » 12 Mar 2022 04:56

The anti-Sikh sentiment is alive and well it appears.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 12 Mar 2022 05:15

No surinder. Unless you believe Khalsa Aid speaks for all Sikhs.

Often a tamasha is only best answered with derision.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 12 Mar 2022 05:57

Ukrainian official: Bennett told Zelensky he should take Putin's proposal to end war

https://www.axios.com/russia-war-israel ... 2f5a1.html

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 12 Mar 2022 07:08

^^ as far as I’m concerned, Sikhs have proven something by not voting SGPC/ Akali Dal.

Aam Admi Party is, to me, just strange. However Sikhs have demonstrated something significant. As far as I’m concerned the khalistani qissa is over.

Welcome back.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 12 Mar 2022 08:10

hgupta wrote:That is because Poland and Hungary got sanctioned by the EU, lol.

The Hungarians are relatively sensible from what I can see. But most of these countries are slowly realizing they have been duped by EU and NATO.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 12 Mar 2022 08:16

Mort Walker wrote:Elon Musk has been asked by the Wokes to turn off all Tesla vehicles in Russia

Oh, maybe you missed the news. The “woke” Elon Musk has been donating STARLINK dishes and supercharging for free to all in Ukraine and Poland. Woke…lol

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 Mar 2022 09:18

Jay wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:Elon Musk has been asked by the Wokes to turn off all Tesla vehicles in Russia
Oh, maybe you missed the news. The “woke” Elon Musk has been donating STARLINK dishes and supercharging for free to all in Ukraine and Poland. Woke…lol

Who cares what Elon does? It’s the woke crowd telling him what to do and the stupid woke corporations like Coke-a-Cola, McDs, Netflix and so on that are sanctioning Russia.

These same wokes will come after India when the time comes. It may be on the slightest social media provocation after CAA and UCC are implemented.

yogeshkumar · Post by **yogeshkumar** » 12 Mar 2022 09:22

All this US/EU nonsense "Freedom of Speech", "Democracy", "Freedom" etc has proven to be completely False. US/EU never cared about speech unless the speech favored their agenda.

Right now US Government is in bed with Google (Youtube), FakeBook (& Fakistagram and WhatsFakeApp), Twitter, DuckDuckGo etc. Only narrative that is allowed on these platform is the one that is approved by DC cabal.

I hope India gets a dose of reality. Bring foreign reserves home. If needed, convert those to physical Gold and bring physical Gold home. Remember.. UK confiscated Venezuela's Gold just few years ago. So its not a one time or new pattern.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 Mar 2022 09:38

^^^Yes. The Xiden administration is giving social media companies and influencers Ukraine briefings. Thank god India banned Tik Tok. Time to ban Facebook too.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 12 Mar 2022 09:42

Missed logging in for about a week and see another 25 pages almost.

A few points of observation to discuss :

a. Russian AF is nowhere to be found. Just unsure why that is and if someone did post anything on it, will be interested to understand whats happening. Ukraine had about 6-15 planes and their AA and runways and support nodes should have been cratered on the first day. Why didnt Russia do it and why is it still not having air superiority. Multiple ppl have multiple views but nothing which is convincing.

b. 3/4 generals have got killed on Russian side. High number when compared to normal base rate. I think US lost 2 during WW II. Unsure if its due to intelligence taking them out or a direct hit to a Russian command centre. I hope it's not due to them being in a forward location and being killed in a battle instead of being the backend and directions operations and taking command decisions. Regardless, numbers purported are high. Staggering losses, IMHO.

c. Where is Russian info war? Uk seems to be winning it currently and has been doing it steadily ever since war started.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 12 Mar 2022 10:01

^^There has been almost complete blackout of any info from Russia on Western MSM/SM in the name of not spreading or culling propaganda while the same outlets have no qualms about spreading ludicrous propaganda from Ukraine saying that its a morale booster (even if its absurd). Since most of the world depends on Western MSM/SM for info dissemination...

Russian AF have been using mostly Su-25, Su-34s for CAS. There is no need to use air superiority platforms or newer multi-role ones (Su-30, 35s, etc.) since there are very little Ukrainian Air assets that can take off. BTW, it seems like RuAF have run out of PGMs or saving whatever stock it has for more important stages of conflict (say if the war escalates involving NATO) because they have using dumb bombs lately in CAS & strike roles and have paid some penalty by having quite a few number of their birds being shot down.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 12 Mar 2022 10:06

Mort Walker wrote: Who cares what Elon does? It’s the woke crowd telling him what to do and the stupid woke corporations like Coke-a-Cola, McDs, Netflix and so on that are sanctioning Russia.

These same wokes will come after India when the time comes. It may be on the slightest social media provocation after CAA and UCC are implemented.

In what world is Coca Cola woke but not Tesla, hain? Everybody will come after India when the time comes. Do you think the British and southern Baptist evangelicals will spare India when the time comes? This is a strange logic to call everything woke or woke has lost its meaning with some people.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 12 Mar 2022 10:23

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Yes. The Xiden administration is giving social media companies and influencers Ukraine briefings. Thank god India banned Tik Tok. Time to ban Facebook too.

Time for a blanket ban all US owned social media platforms.

Facebook is okay with praise of Neo Nazis in Ukraine. They are ok with calls to kill President Putin.

How soon before they are okay with killing of Indian political figures.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 12 Mar 2022 11:00

This war is probably a good template for Indo Pak conflict and needs to be studied in the same context.

The broad disparity between India Pak strength is similar to Russia Ukraine strength.

However the following points should be considered:

From the Pakistani perspective:
- Pakistan has a way more capable airforce than Ukraine.
- Pakistani air defences are comparable in capability to the air defence Ukraine got from Russia when they were still buddies. Russia still has not achieved SEAD/DEAD objectives and rather hasn't even earnestly attempted to do so which has bewildered friends and foes alike.
- Pakistan has been preparing for Indian invasion since the day it was born.
- Far more feral populace with enough combatants for guerrilla war fueled by decades of insurgency.
- India lacks the cruise missile and tactical ballistic missile numbers that Russia has.
- Global pressure will mount too heavily against India to avoid nuclear conflict even with a valid causus belli.
- Even if India takes over POJK swiftly, the Pakjabi populace will ensure decades of insurgency till POJK is brought down to normative standards of present day Valley.

From Indian perspective:
- Far heavier integration of smart weapons than what Russia has including PGMs and stand off munitions.
- Indian operation would be limited in objective to quickly cut off POJK followed by long period of grid by grid CASO to sanitise POJK.
- Pakistan will be unable to get ISTAR and satellite intelligence on the level NATO has provided Ukraine.
- Invasion into Pakistan has been wargamed probably a gazillion times.
- Lack of strategic depth for Pakistan will likely help India attain air superiority much earlier.
- Far more modern Air Defence that will force PAF to fight mostly on home turf except a few incursions here and there.
- India will not hesitate to bring whatever is left of Pakistani infrastructure to rubble, unlike what Russia has so far avoided in Ukraine.

Just my 2 paise.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Mar 2022 11:50

vinod wrote:Russians are getting desperate. So the destruction level will go up.
It seems Russian state tv has said this invasion is more embarrassing than Afghanistan. If putin doesn't pull something out of his hat soon, he is going to be in serious trouble.

Yes. I speak enough Russian to get what Russian analysts are saying. The average Russian understands military ops better than a Westerner.
Typical comment from a civilian would be `why hasn't XYZ brigade advanced only 2 km since yesterday... ?

The view from battlefield updates, of the most followed Russian analyst :
- All Russian thrusts have come to a halt. There is no chance of a big encirclement anywhere. Kiev has not yet been cut off. No progress has been
made for 2 weeks.
- The biggest Ukie grouping in Donetsk/ Luhansk, has not been encircled, except for a brigade in Maruipol. The are retreating slowly towards the
Dnieper.
- Paradrop south of Pervomaisk (north of Odessa), to take a bridge on the Bug (opening the path to Odessa), seems to have been a disaster, as
ground forces did not link up fast enough. Russian news has gone quiet on that.
- Purge of Russian generals. FSB general arrested also repeated in Russian circles. (the last time this happened was with Stalin in 1941).
- Russians have still not committed the bulk of their air force and modern equipment. Tanks are T-72s, T90 regiments have not been committed.
- Russians have a manpower problem. Not enough infantry to take cities. the Russians know enough about urban warfare to know that you can't send mechanised forces into cities.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 12 Mar 2022 12:06

Basically Russians need to cut off Ukrainian cities from Power fuel, food ,weapons and International Aid getting through and then negotiate from a position of strength.,

Ukraine needs to stop these cities from getting cut off and keep the International Aid flowing so they can negotiate from a position of strength.

US and Britain hoping this can turn into an 80's Afghanistan totally knocking out Russia. Lets see what happens

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Mar 2022 12:09

vinod wrote:Biggest fear is this is going to be great opportunity for ISIS to infiltrate in large numbers into Europe.

ISIS with MANPADS and ATGMs.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Mar 2022 12:12

How do I post screenshots of situation maps here ?

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 12 Mar 2022 14:03

https://arstechnica.com/information-tec ... comments=1

There hasnt been much impact of a couple of backbone ISPs cutting Russia off from the Internet. Backbone ISPs dropping a customer as huge as a country is highly unusual, but these are woke times.

Another thing to consider what may happen with India. If it does it will kill the service industry for good and will have a bigger impact than oil stoppage

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 12 Mar 2022 14:04

Deans wrote:How do I post screenshots of situation maps here ?

If the maps are already hosted and visible on a website, just post a link thst you can find by right clicking on the map image.

If its from your desktop you need to upload it somewhere like imgur and the post a link

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 12 Mar 2022 14:11

FT:

‘A serious failure’: scale of Russia’s military blunders becomes clear

Three weeks into its invasion of Ukraine, the scale of Russia’s military blunders is becoming clear.

The outcome of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s war is still far from certain: little information exists on Ukrainian forces’ rates of attrition, while Russia’s military still outmans and outguns that of its neighbour. The chances of escalation have meanwhile increased as the Russian leadership looks to regain the front foot.

But in the first phase of its offensive, the Kremlin’s military story is one of failure.

Western defence officials have estimated Russian casualties at between 2,000 and 6,000. Based on ratios in similar conflicts, that implies three to four times as many captured and wounded. At its midpoint, such an estimate is more, in three weeks, than the losses of US and UK servicemen combined during 20 years in Afghanistan.

Russia’s losses in materiel are also significant. The Oryx blog has recorded 1,034 Russian vehicles, artillery pieces and aircraft destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured. These include 173 tanks, 261 armoured and infantry fighting vehicles, and 28 surface-to-air missile systems.

Justin Bronk, research fellow at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, who co-wrote a book on Russia’s military modernisation under Putin, said the losses “are massively more than in any other recent conflict” including Georgia, Chechnya or Afghanistan in the 1980s.

Analysts and western military officials agree on the primary cause of the flaws in Russia’s military offensive: a failure of intelligence that skewed military planning.

Flowing from this were failures linked to rash decision-making, logistical unpreparedness, poor maintenance of equipment and the use of young, inexperienced troops that together have culminated in a collapse of front-line Russian morale.

General Sir Richard Barrons, former head of the UK’s Joint Forces Command, said: “There is something here that is systemically wrong . . . somewhere in the Russian intelligence architecture, facts on the ground are being converted into an analysis, but that analysis is actually a narrative to support the preconceptions of the senior [Kremlin] leadership.”

The Russians are very good at military parades. They spend weeks getting everything shiny. But it’s a facade

European defence official
As a result, Russia’s intended campaign — an assault strike predicated on speed and Ukrainian political weakness — has tipped into a joint combat operation requiring logistical and communications planning that does not seem to have been in place, say analysts.

Russia’s first failures occurred within the opening 24 hours of the war, when pre-positioned covert spetsnaz troops, whose job it was to cripple the Ukrainian political leadership, were stopped. Airborne forces of the elite VDV, known for their sky-blue berets, that were supposed to secure key sites such as Hostomel airport just north of the capital, were, after initial success, repelled by strong Ukrainian resistance. Two transport aircraft were downed above Hostomel by Ukrainian forces.

“The Ukrainian military as a whole have been expecting this kind of invasion to come since 2014,” said Barrons. “And then they were handed the gift of these light forces coming in piecemeal, underestimating them, which they were able to pick off.”

The second component of the initial assault — the rapid advance of Russian forces, avoiding cities and intended to quickly encircle regional Ukrainian military units they believed would be paralysed because of a leaderless central government — further extended Russian vulnerability.

“It is as if they were treating this as a military policing mission, not an actual invasion against a modern military,” said one western military official. Videos on social media even show troops from Rosguardia, Russia’s domestic militia, advancing into towns, unsupported, as the frontline force.

When, several days in, Russian commanders realised they needed to pivot to using more serious firepower, they did so chaotically: huge columns of tanks and artillery moved forward, but the Ukrainians blew up bridges, causing advances to stall. Russian planners appear to have failed to anticipate this basic response, another western military official said, pointing out that engineering units and bridge builders were not even near the front of the advance in some columns.

“What we have seen on the ground is an extremely bad plan coupled with absolutely no warning to operational commanders they were about to throw their troops into operational combat which has created an enormous number of problems for them,” said Rusi’s Bronk. It is, he added, a “serious failure” of “TTPs” — tactics, techniques and procedures.

Even Russia’s feared anti-aircraft systems were left vulnerable to cheap Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones operated by the Ukrainians. Footage on Twitter, for example, shows Ukrainian TB2’s picking off Buk launchers, the same missile system used to shoot down the MH17 commercial aircraft in 2014.

On the ground, meanwhile, the thousands of anti-tank missiles western powers have been supplying to Ukraine for weeks have proved effective, with mobile foot soldiers able to ambush and attack isolated advanced clusters of Russian light vehicles and stationary heavy units stuck in columns with unprotected flanks.

Photo released by Ukraine armed forces shows a Russian Ka-52 helicopter shot down in Hostomel on February 24.
Photo released by Ukraine armed forces shows a Russian Ka-52 helicopter shot down in Hostomel on February 24. © AP
Open-source intelligence suggests that Russia’s military communications infrastructure has performed poorly: the cutting-edge encrypted Azart and Akveduk radios that supposedly began to be rolled out to Russian units in 2017 appear to be in short supply or have inadequate range, noted a Rusi report.

On social media, pictures have been posted of Russians using cheap, unencrypted Chinese radios, and their own mobile phones to contact commanders. As a result even amateur radio enthusiasts hundreds of miles away have been able to tune into real-time Russian military communications, as Twitter threads with dozens of recorded Russian messages show.

Inadequate equipment has been the cause of other failings: images have been shared by Ukrainians of Russian vehicles with shredded tires stuck in mud. Experts say the tires are almost certainly cheap, civilian-grade versions of those the Russian military need, suggesting, as in the case of the radios, endemic corruption in Russia’s defence procurement.

“The Russians are very good at military parades. They spend weeks getting everything shiny. But it’s a facade,” said one European defence official.

The biggest question that continues to perplex analysts, though, is why Russia has still not made use of its vastly superior air power to better protect its forces, and reverse the debacle on the ground.

A senior US defence official said that Ukraine had been “very creative” in how it used its air defences, making highly effective use of cheap drones, and the country’s forces were staging a much fiercer resistance than Russian intelligence expected. “They are putting resources where they’re most needed [and] they’re doing it quickly. They are being adaptive and nimble . . . in almost a sort of a hit-and-run kind of style,” he said.

Russia’s military has no experience fighting such an extensive joint ground-and-air war, the official said. “This is an operation that they have never conducted before, never meaning since world war two.”

The official said Russia was also having trouble integrating its ground and air forces into a “joint” force. He said that while the Russia had upgraded its military and acquired sophisticated systems, “it doesn’t appear . . . that they have developed the proper operational concepts to use these modern capabilities”.

The failures have resulted in a widespread, if perhaps temporary, collapse in morale, according to the Pentagon and British defence intelligence. There is even evidence of Russian soldiers sabotaging their own equipment, officials have said.

The average age of Russian soldiers in Ukraine is 20-25 years old, according to one western military official, compared with 30-35 for the Ukrainians, who are better-supplied and have a cause on their side.

Many of the young Russian soldiers deployed meanwhile did not even know they were being sent into Ukraine, let alone that they would have to fire on fellow Russian-speakers.

“It has become clear that a lot of Russian infantry are simply not willing to go into the attack,” said Chris Donnelly, an adviser on the Soviet military to four Nato secretaries-general. “Once morale really starts to collapse like this, you don’t have an army any more.”

The Russians have used conscripts and poorly trained junior troops, Donnelly said, in an apparently knee-jerk reversion by operational commanders to the textbook Soviet tactic of sending in expendable forces first to “soak up firepower”.

The question is how Russia will adapt. In recent days, Russian forces have stepped up the use of long-range fire, and have launched more than 800 missiles in total. There were also signs that columns of forces to the north and east of Kyiv were preparing to try a new approach.

Some of the tanks and other vehicles in a long convoy that at its closest point is 15km from Kyiv have also gone off the main road. It is unclear whether they are being sent in a different direction or taking cover under trees.

Elsewhere, Russia’s objectives seem to be to surround and besiege a sufficient number of Ukrainian cities, seize Kyiv and oust the Zelensky government. While Russian forces have struggled in the north, in the south they have had far more success, and can still apply considerable force.

Questions remain about Ukrainian forces’ ability to continue to fight and how much in anti-aircraft munitions they have remaining.

Within the Ukrainian military there is also growing dismay over western flip-flopping over additional military support, such as gifting MiG jets or heavier, vehicle-mounted long-range anti-aircraft weaponry.

Russia’s use of crude artillery and dumb bombs is meanwhile wreaking a heavy civilian toll. And most signs point towards a further escalation by the Kremlin.

The danger, said one retired senior British intelligence officer, is that in seeking to extricate itself from its tactical disasters in Ukraine, Moscow “blunders into a strategic dead-end with even worse consequences” — for Ukraine, and possibly the world.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 12 Mar 2022 14:31

Believing all what has been put out, Putin should have been overthrown, I am seeing Western Propaganda get very desperate over the last 3 days with very little video evidence and Israeli Prime Minister Bennet askign Zelensky to make peace. The truth see far from this narrative.

Lets see how this pans out.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 12 Mar 2022 14:47

There is no doubt that the Russian probably underestimated the Ukrainian resistance and sent in a force almost casually and got taken out early. This gave a renewed confidence to Ukrainians. The first blows should have been hard, but went for a soft approach.
Now, they are having rethink their strategy.
I don't think zelensky is doing what is right for Ukraine but for US. Then, it all makes sense.
Whatever victory Ukraine get is hollow. If they do get victory and Russia is cut down to size. Then, there is no need for them any more and they will be promptly let go. So, a state of perpetual war is what is going to happen.

However it goes, this is bad for India.
Russia wins - it will be relying heavily on China
Russia stale mate/loses - it becomes China's slave.

No more veto votes in UN SC for us.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Mar 2022 15:33

Russian bungling is confronted by a Ukrainian army thats surely getting excellent real time intelligence, C4I support and inexhaustible supply of small arms, ATGMs and munitions from US/NATO. I would be surprised if Pentagon isn't directing this war on the Ukrainian side from some fancy command bunker in the US.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Mar 2022 16:21

Cyrano wrote:Russian bungling is confronted by a Ukrainian army thats surely getting excellent real time intelligence, C4I support and inexhaustible supply of small arms, ATGMs and munitions from US/NATO. I would be surprised if Pentagon isn't directing this war on the Ukrainian side from some fancy command bunker in the US.

The restructuring and rearming of Ukraine started in 2015, once NATO saw their sub-standard performance against Donetsk/Luhansk.
The process speeded up from 2019, when Zelenski got elected and then Ukraine signed an enhanced partnership agreement with NATO. Ukraine was armed for exactly the war they are now fighting. One view in Russia is that if Putin had waited longer, Ukraine invasion might have been costlier, given the pace of rearmament. Ukraine has more modern ATGMs than the Indian army ! NATO also has AWACS outside Ukie airspace and probably several satellites.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Mar 2022 16:25

Agree, they even have more bio warfare labs than many countries in the world !

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Mar 2022 16:36

Situation around Kiev, 11th Mar 2000h.
In both the East and West, Russians have not been able to reach the Dnieper (which will encircle the city).
the Ukrainian logistics/ transport hub is at Fastov, South West of Kiev, where the 2 red (Russian) arrows are headed (its the blue arc to the south of the blue arc defending against these 2 red arrows. The front has remained almost unchanged for a week.
In the East, the transport route for the Russians passes through Sumy which has not been taken.
In the West, the area around the single road is marshy and snow is starting to melt, so convoys are vulnerable to artillery and drones.
However, both East and West of the city, Russian artillery is within range.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Mar 2022 16:46

Situation in the sector North of Crimea. 11th Mar 2000. Ideally see this with Google maps in English.

The town of Mikoleyev (blue circle near the bottom) has not been taken - probably recaptured by Ukrainians.
Last Sat, the Russians did a paradrop across the Bug river, just south of Voznesensk - its the blue curve to the left of the map and to the
right of the town of Voznesenek (spelt BO3... in Russian). The ground forces (which were earlier shown as almost linking up with the paras, failed
and were thrown back. The front is now some distance away from the para drop, so it was probably a bad failure (unless helicopters got them out).

To the East, a Russian thrust is heading for Krivyi Rih). There are also Russian forces on the right back of the Dnieper, so the intent is to take Ukrainian forces, retreating across the Dnieper (East to West) at Zaporizhia & Dnipro, in the rear. However, each Russian thrust (red circle) is at battalion strength only and not moving fast enough

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Mar 2022 16:47

I'm hearing on France24 channel that the huge front amassed near Kiev has started dispersing to better defend itself and supply lines from Ukr small group attacks armed with ATGMs and drones. They are still not far from Kiev but the earlier sense of threat is not the same.

Perhaps Zelinsky's repeated bleating on TV imploring NATO to intervene directly is a ploy. They are managing media well, showing destruction and deaths caused by Russia while keeping their own ops and status totally out of media reports. Heck no Ukr army's top general has ever come on TV to make a statement until now AFAI seen. He seems to be fighting from the shadows with a shadow army... very clever, but at tremendous cost to common Ukr people.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Mar 2022 19:01

Situation East of Kharkiv (Kharkiv is at the top of the map where the airport is.
The city hasn't fallen yet. The sense I had earlier is that the city is bypassed and Ukie army defending it, cut-off. If that was the case, I
expected (in an earlier post of mine) a big Russian thrust moving South from Kharkiv, to cut off the Ukies on Donetsk & Luhansk (who were
originally occupying the right half of this map).

Instead, Ukies appear to have made a fighting withdrawal and have retained an unbroken front. They are gaps in the Blue Ukraine lines, because
the area is large. They move to counter Russian advances. A week ago there was fierce fighting in the town of Izyum (blue circle). that town has
now been bypassed, but Russian forces have barely advanced 20 km West from there. There is the possibility of Russians encircling or destroying a
Brigade equivalent (blue circle in the East under attack), but that's about it.