Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10069
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Mort Walker »

Jay wrote:
Mort Walker wrote: Who cares what Elon does? It’s the woke crowd telling him what to do and the stupid woke corporations like Coke-a-Cola, McDs, Netflix and so on that are sanctioning Russia.

These same wokes will come after India when the time comes. It may be on the slightest social media provocation after CAA and UCC are implemented.
In what world is Coca Cola woke but not Tesla, hain? Everybody will come after India when the time comes. Do you think the British and southern Baptist evangelicals will spare India when the time comes? This is a strange logic to call everything woke or woke has lost its meaning with some people.
It is one thing for a western company that produces dual use items or a financial services company to stops sales in Russia. Tesla has not self-sanctioned Russia unlike US based food, drink and entertainment companies. So these food, drink and entertainment companies can be correctly called woke. You can't seem to comprehend that Southern Baptist Evangelicals don't do business in India or Russia for that matter. Their influence is equivalent to the woke Seattle City Council.

The current US government is trying to wage a social media war using social media influence where SJW will be the new soldiers for regime change in Russia. White House is briefing social media creators on Russia and Ukraine
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10069
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Mort Walker »

vinod wrote:There is no doubt that the Russian probably underestimated the Ukrainian resistance and sent in a force almost casually and got taken out early. This gave a renewed confidence to Ukrainians. The first blows should have been hard, but went for a soft approach.
Now, they are having rethink their strategy.
I don't think zelensky is doing what is right for Ukraine but for US. Then, it all makes sense.
Whatever victory Ukraine get is hollow. If they do get victory and Russia is cut down to size. Then, there is no need for them any more and they will be promptly let go. So, a state of perpetual war is what is going to happen.

However it goes, this is bad for India.
Russia wins - it will be relying heavily on China
Russia stale mate/loses - it becomes China's slave.

No more veto votes in UN SC for us.
India has never vetoed any vote regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It has always and will always remain neutral. Let the Europeans fight it out. This is a lesson for India not to become dependent on foreign arms or get financially/strategically close to any large power.

There are conflicting reports of Israel's PM Bennett telling Zelensky to accept Russian conditions to end the war, but Zelensky is going along with staying power as long as he can.
vinod
BRFite
Posts: 980
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by vinod »

One of the main things in this war is the real time intelligence provided to Ukraine. Do we have anything that can disable or blind satellites like lasers, Direct energy weapons?
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by kit »

x post

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-03-10/

Agencies including Interfax quoted Valery Kudinov, a Rosaviatsia official responsible for maintaining airplane airworthiness, as saying that Russia would look for opportunities to source parts from countries including Turkey and India after a failed attempt to obtain them from China.

India can certainly supply Sukhoi components !!
vinod
BRFite
Posts: 980
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by vinod »

Mort Walker wrote:
vinod wrote: .

However it goes, this is bad for India.
Russia wins - it will be relying heavily on China
Russia stale mate/loses - it becomes China's slave.

No more veto votes in UN SC for us.
India has never vetoed any vote regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It has always and will always remain neutral. Let the Europeans fight it out. This is a lesson for India not to become dependent on foreign arms or get financially/strategically close to any large power.

There are conflicting reports of Israel's PM Bennett telling Zelensky to accept Russian conditions to end the war, but Zelensky is going along with staying power as long as he can.
I was referring to continued veto by Russia whenever there is vote in UN SC against us like kashmir.
Now, they will come under pressure from Chinese. West may do tactical voting for us but not at all reliable.
Baikul
BRFite
Posts: 1462
Joined: 20 Sep 2010 06:47

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Baikul »

Deans wrote:….
Yes. I speak enough Russian to get what Russian analysts are saying. The average Russian understands military ops better than a Westerner.
….

The view from battlefield updates, of the most followed Russian analyst - …….
This seems to paint, if not a bleak picture, then a lot of shades of grey. If I have this right, Russian forces don’t have enough manpower to take the capital because the expected attrition will be unsustainable. Even if they encircle Kyiv at some point.

They not succeeded in dealing a body blow to the main Ukrainian Army which continues to avoid encirclement/ destruction.

They’ve resorted to WW2 tactics in that they’re sending poorly trained troops first as frontline fodder. They’ve have suffered another disastrous para landing (what’s the life expectancy or Russian para troops these days?).

The, if true, is looking like the opening notes of some Russian campaigns of the past. Large initial material
losses, significant tactical errors leading to high troop casualties, ending with an all out assault on enemy assets leading to destruction of entire cities. I guess the question is who folds first - the Russian Army or Ukrainian resistance.

What are you reading, if anything, from
the Russians on the alleged death of three of their general officers, which surely is a significant number for such a short period. As a matter of interest these are:

Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander, 41st Combined Army, ⁠Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, Chief of Staff , 41st Combined Army, and Major General Andrei Kolesnikov, commander of the 29th Combined Arms Army.
rsingh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4451
Joined: 19 Jan 2005 01:05
Location: Pindi
Contact:

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by rsingh »

Russian are master of strategy. They will survive. And not worry about India. India is their only free world friend that can do things. Slow start is characteristics of Russia. Same happened in WWII . But when this campaign will get momentum , Russia is unforgiving. They exel during crisis. None of the NaTiO or European countries have gut to put troops on ground. As far as manpower....why not send Bihari bhais and give them 100 hec each :!:
ldev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2616
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by ldev »

https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shortur ... ZR9-WTBd-V

Very interesting research note from Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse and formerly of the US Federal Reserve and Treasury.

Highlights:

The global commodity market has been broken into Russian and non Russian sources.

Non Russian commodity prices are going up and will go up further leading to inflation in the West.

Since it is the G7 countries that have launched these sanctions against Russia, the only other central bank with the firepower to buy and hold Russian commodities is the Peoples Bank of China.

They can do this either by selling their vast holdings of US Treasury Bonds or printing more Yuan or a combination of both.

Either will increase US Treasury yields and drive inflation further up.

And both will see the emergence of the Yuan as a potential commodity backed global currency.

The Bretton Woods system of inside money, established in 1943 and modified by Nixon in 1971 (fx reserves primarily denominated in US dollars) has been broken by the seizure of Russia's foreign exchange reserves. When this transformation is complete the US dollar will be lower in value. How quickly this happens depends on the pace with which China decides to internationalize the yuan.

China is the big winner.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10069
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Mort Walker »

vinod wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
India has never vetoed any vote regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It has always and will always remain neutral. Let the Europeans fight it out. This is a lesson for India not to become dependent on foreign arms or get financially/strategically close to any large power.

There are conflicting reports of Israel's PM Bennett telling Zelensky to accept Russian conditions to end the war, but Zelensky is going along with staying power as long as he can.
I was referring to continued veto by Russia whenever there is vote in UN SC against us like kashmir.
Now, they will come under pressure from Chinese. West may do tactical voting for us but not at all reliable.
Thanks for clarifying. The day Russia quits vetoing on UN SC regarding India, is the day India-Russia relations end. How many UN SC resolutions have there been regarding India in the last 30 years? Not many or any, I think?

Russia may be under the influence of China, but the US will most likely be under Chinese influence due to corporate and political corruption. That is for another thread.
sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6139
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by sanjaykumar »

No doubt major economies are going to dump the US dollar. This includes petrostates, China, India. Likely Brazil, South Africa. Possibly Indonesia. Gold will soar. The US economy will suffer a blow back. Hope Ukraine is worth it.
rsingh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4451
Joined: 19 Jan 2005 01:05
Location: Pindi
Contact:

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by rsingh »

Mort Walker wrote:
vinod wrote: I was referring to continued veto by Russia whenever there is vote in UN SC against us like kashmir.
Now, they will come under pressure from Chinese. West may do tactical voting for us but not at all reliable.
Thanks for clarifying. The day Russia quits vetoing on UN SC regarding India, is the day India-Russia relations end. How many UN SC resolutions have there been regarding India in the last 30 years? Not many or any, I think?

Russia may be under the influence of China, but the US will most likely be under Chinese influence due to corporate and political corruption. That is for another thread.
Sir ji chill. Listen to this youthful exuberant music. Do not read much in lyrics....jut music.
Putin knows what he into.
https://youtu.be/runtBx7Rmdk
ldev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2616
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by ldev »

A comparison of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 vs the Russian invasion of Ukraine:

Land area of Iraq 438,000 sq km
Land area of Ukraine 604,000 sq km

Population of Iraq in 2003 25 million
Population of Ukraine 44 million

Total ground forces deployed by US and allies ~300,000
Total ground forces deployed by Russia ~ 160,000-190,000

US forces captured Baghdad about 3 weeks after the start of the war having driven ~700 km from the Kuwait border.
Russian forces have been unable to capture Kyiv after almost 3 weeks inspite of Kyiv being 100 km from the Belarus border.

US forces faced an Iraqi Army that was considerably weakened by sanctions placed on Iraq as a result of the 1991 war.....12 years of sanctions
Ukrainian forces have substantial material and real time intelligence backing of NATO and the US.

Conclusion: I doubt that the Russians will be able to occupy all of Ukraine with the forces they have currently deployed. All of Western Ukraine remains outside their control currently and holding on to territory presently under their control will be subject to an insurgency in the future. This must be pretty clear to the Russians themselves. So what really are their military and political objectives at this stage?
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10069
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Mort Walker »

It makes sense for Russia to control eastern Ukraine upto the Dnieper river and the riverway itself being an outlet into the Black Sea. Also control the southern coast all the way to Romania. The idea is to make Ukraine a landlocked country entirely dependent on western Europe.
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3868
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Kakkaji »

ldev wrote:Conclusion: I doubt that the Russians will be able to occupy all of Ukraine with the forces they have currently deployed. All of Western Ukraine remains outside their control currently and holding on to territory presently under their control will be subject to an insurgency in the future. This must be pretty clear to the Russians themselves. So what really are their military and political objectives at this stage?
I don't know what the Russian leadership is thinking, but I think that if they just focus on clearing out the Ukrainian Army from all of Luhansk and Donetsk districts (including Mariopol), and also a 100km deep land corridor linking Crimea to Donetsk, they would be in a good position to call a cease-fire and end hostilities. Sort of what Turkey did in attacking and occupying Turkish-speaking areas of Cyprus, thus dividing that island forever.

Forget about occupying Kyiv, Kharkiv and other Ukrainian-majority areas and trying to topple the Ukrainian Government. It is costing Russia a whole lot more than it is worth. Just grab and secure the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and call it quits.
ParGha
BRFite
Posts: 1004
Joined: 20 Jul 2006 06:01

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by ParGha »

<self-delete>
Last edited by ParGha on 12 Mar 2022 21:03, edited 1 time in total.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5528
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Putin's stated objectives are:
No NATO membership for Ukraine
De militarisation of Ukr
De Nazification of Ukr

He is on record recently that he doesn't want territorial expansion, doesn't intend to occupy Ukr or change its leadership.

The first objective may still be achieved if the terms of a compromise are worked out.
The second not sure. Azov battalion etc may be disbanded and it's members absorbed across other Ukr army units, actually spreading Nazist tendencies all over.
The third is impossible since Ukr army seems better equipped, trained, coordinated and intelligence fed than Russian forces they are currently fighting. Plus external support will continue and is very hard to cutoff. Unless Putin somehow kills everyone of fighting age and blockades Ukr's western borders this objective is unachievable.

At this point in time what Putin can get out of continued war is at best Obj 1 and keep eastern territories , Crimea and southern coast under Russian control. And that too because NATO is unwilling to take on Ukr and Zelinsky is starting to sulk at the West and realised Putin will not hesitate to wreck the whole of Ukr whatever be the cost for Russia.
Such a compromise is not a bad move for Zelinsky because Putin has to face domestic forces next and I would think not many will hail this war as a victory at home. There is a good chance he is overthrown in the next couple of years and then Ukr can do whatever she wants openly. One thing Zelinsky can be sure of is that there will be no more Pro Russian groups in whatever remains of Ukr.
John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3447
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by John »

At this point Vasily Bykov looks to have actually been sunk by the Grad attack, it's sister ship Dmitriy Rogachev has arrived back in Sebastopol. No idea who signed off moving two patrol ships with no air defense capability 20 miles from Ukraine.

They are very luck Ukr posses little to no AsuW capability if they operationalized their Neptune Ashm they would have likely lost both boats.

https://twitter.com/strato_bear/status/ ... 31264?s=21
Deans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2571
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Deans »

Baikul wrote:
Deans wrote:….
Yes. I speak enough Russian to get what Russian analysts are saying. The average Russian understands military ops better than a Westerner.
….

The view from battlefield updates, of the most followed Russian analyst - …….
This seems to paint, if not a bleak picture, then a lot of shades of grey. If I have this right, Russian forces don’t have enough manpower to take the capital because the expected attrition will be unsustainable. Even if they encircle Kyiv at some point.

They not succeeded in dealing a body blow to the main Ukrainian Army which continues to avoid encirclement/ destruction.

What are you reading, if anything, from
the Russians on the alleged death of three of their general officers, which surely is a significant number for such a short period.
I have former Russian colleagues who were, or have family in the army. They believe they did lose 2 generals (death of CO of 29th CAA
is too recent to confirm). Because the Russian army is still largely conscript based, officers do any work that needs technical skills and suffer a
high portion of casualties. Junior officers do lead from the front like IA. My sense is senior officers were targeted from signals intercepts and drones.
Also every adult male in the Ukraine has a cellphone and can recognise a field HQ and a general when he sees one.
Deans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2571
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote:Putin's stated objectives are:
No NATO membership for Ukraine
De militarisation of Ukr
De Nazification of Ukr
I think those are intentionally maximal demands. He will settle for:
- No NATO membership for Ukraine (and Georgia).
- Implement the Minsk-2 agreement, which all parties signed up for in 2015.
- Recognise Crimea as Russian (or if Ukraine insists its a disputed territory) remove sanctions.

In return for that, all sanctions go and Russian troops withdraw.
John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3447
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by John »

I remember reading in some pro Russian channels days after invasion that few Generals have moved closer to front lines since they wanted better coordinate the invasion, other media reported Putin was unhappy and demanded them to move closer to take charge. Whatever the case given dynamic nature and high casualties happening in front lines looks like they are taking a hit.
Deans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2571
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Deans »

John wrote:At this point Vasily Bykov looks to have actually been sunk by the Grad attack, it's sister ship Dmitriy Rogachev has arrived back in Sebastopol. No idea who signed off moving two patrol ships with no air defense capability 20 miles from Ukraine.

They are very luck Ukr posses little to no AsuW capability if they operationalized their Neptune Ashm they would have likely lost both boats.

https://twitter.com/strato_bear/status/ ... 31264?s=21
At some point there is likely to be an amphibious landing around Odessa. It would happen once the Ukrainians do not have any significant
naval and air assets in the area (which is probably true). The patrol boats would be required to support marines who have landed ashore and
prior to any landing probe coastal defences. That's when the ship must have been hit by a grad strike. Not sure if it actually sank, though it was
most likely hit.
Atmavik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2004
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Atmavik »

Deans wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Putin's stated objectives are:
No NATO membership for Ukraine
De militarisation of Ukr
De Nazification of Ukr
I think those are intentionally maximal demands. He will settle for:
- No NATO membership for Ukraine (and Georgia).
- Implement the Minsk-2 agreement, which all parties signed up for in 2015.
- Recognise Crimea as Russian (or if Ukraine insists its a disputed territory) remove sanctions.

In return for that, all sanctions go and Russian troops withdraw.

He better achieve these objectives quickly or there might be a color revolution in Russia itself , there might be another Yeltsin if this drags on
John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3447
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by John »

Deans wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Putin's stated objectives are:
No NATO membership for Ukraine
De militarisation of Ukr
De Nazification of Ukr
I think those are intentionally maximal demands. He will settle for:
- No NATO membership for Ukraine (and Georgia).
- Implement the Minsk-2 agreement, which all parties signed up for in 2015.
- Recognise Crimea as Russian (or if Ukraine insists its a disputed territory) remove sanctions.

In return for that, all sanctions go and Russian troops withdraw.
That's actually worse than pre invasion deal that Macron was negotiating it included all that and even got Ukr to go along with it, it also included some recog for two eastern provinces as well.
Last edited by John on 12 Mar 2022 22:15, edited 1 time in total.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5528
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

What incentive does the west have to remove sanctions? US is not feeling the effects directly, and can print $$$, EU is nervous about affordable oil & gas supply but by next winter they will cut dependency on Russia by at least 50% by striking expensive deals elsewhere and woke Europeans will be happy higher energy prices will help accelerate their Green agenda. What Putin is wrecking is not US or EU territory. US is anyway not getting any Ukr refugees and will throw money to EU border states like Poland, Romania to keep them there. Western Europe will prefer these blonde blue eyed refugees to unwashed from ME and Africa and close doors to them stating they can't take anymore.

EU leaders are done with Putin and want to see him go, they think sanctions will create internal pressure to overthrow Putin. The west will set impossible and humiliating terms for Russia including say sorry, pay reparations, face war crime trials, send Russian soldiers as labour to rebuild Ukr, impose DMZ along Ukr border with Belarus and Russia with UN observer troops on the Russian side of the border etc. Putin will accept none of that and we're back to square one.
This is going to turn into one ugly mess.
Baikul
BRFite
Posts: 1462
Joined: 20 Sep 2010 06:47

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Baikul »

Deans wrote:
What are you reading, if anything, from
the Russians on the alleged death of three of their general officers, which surely is a significant number for such a short period.
I have former Russian colleagues who were, or have family in the army. They believe they did lose 2 generals (death of CO of 29th CAA
is too recent to confirm). Because the Russian army is still largely conscript based, officers do any work that needs technical skills and suffer a
high portion of casualties. Junior officers do lead from the front like IA. My sense is senior officers were targeted from signals intercepts and drones.
Also every adult male in the Ukraine has a cellphone and can recognise a field HQ and a general when he sees one.
I agree they could have been tracked by ELINT of some sort. However, there’s precious few descriptions of how they were killed killed (drone strike, arty, targeted versus just plain bad luck). I’ve just come across one (forget where, possibly an unsubstantiated claim) that a sniper got one general from a distance of 1.5 kilometres.
Deans wrote:
At some point there is likely to be an amphibious landing around Odessa. …..
Haven’t read of a marine force landing in a while. (Wikipedia gives an interesting write up, just google the term).

Even with total Russian Air Force cover it could be a bloody battle because Ukrainian artillery would probably have pre sighted every inch of the beach. It would be interesting to see if the Russians try the conventional beach landing, or send in paratroopers on helicopters as elsewhere, or just blockade the port, preferring a ground campaign from the North and East along the coastline.

Odessa apparently has a lot of emotional resonance with Russians. We’ll probably see soon enough if they try and raze it to the ground also a la Kharkiv.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5528
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Look at it from Europe's PoV:
It got ageing demographics, energy dependency, cant compete globally against US and Asia on innovation or manufacturing, tourism is an important revenue stream. Its future depends on niche innovation, heritage marketing, mercantilism ie trade. Its held together by an unwieldy EU structure with no credible structure or military force to defend all its member countries. Macron was saying just a year ago that NATO is brain dead. It can't afford war and is shit scared of war spilling on to its territory. So a non aggressive Putin was OK no matter what he did in his own country. A war waging Putin is seen as an existential threat to all of Europe.

A world sans Putin will make it possible for Europe to feel safe and strike deals with whoever comes next to assure energy supply for the next decade or two, open up Russian markets for business, and above all free itself from the domineering grip of US. And perhaps walk blindly into the arms of China you may say, but Europe has once again realised that being friends with a dictatorial regime is a ticking time bomb, besides they don't have a border with China. They will think the China risk can be managed, and trade with it like before. Europe will try to establish a better equilibrium with US since NATOs raison d'être is gone if Putin goes, and will go back to what they can do best, and on which their future depends. However, they will invest more in creating joint military structures and forces that train together, it will take a decade or two to make it an effective force.

I think Macron has sensed this, he doesn't want Europe to disunite ever, on the contrary address concretely its 2 major external dependencies Energy and Defense to function better as a united bloc when facing external threats. France has got strengths in both Energy and Defense. Thats why he urgently united all EU heads of state at Versailles for 2 days this week. Brexit UKstan is left to fend for AUKUS type crumbs under Massa's chair.

As you can see, Putin and Putin's Russia have no place in this future tableau. And EU will try its best to have a non threatening Russia going forward.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5528
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

The impossible conditions I suspect the West, actually Europe, will set for Russia in case of a compromise in this dead-end war are not driven by some blind Putin hatred à la America, but to serve as strong dissuasion to any neighbour or member from instigating war with(in) Europe.
bala
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2044
Joined: 02 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Office Lounge

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

We have to be clear about one thing: the Deep State of Murica. It is this creature which needs to be watched over time. Their agenda is total domination of the world, enriching themselves in the bargain, casualties are par for the course, it is even dangerous to the common folks for Murica. Muricans currently don't know what is enveloping them. Trump tried to battle them but was removed. This monster needs to be checked at all costs. Russia is taking a stand now. China is half in the pockets of the Deep State from a economic viewpoint. India better watch out, it is redux of the old British Imperialism and it is coming soon. The Brits BTW were at the center of Drug (opium) trade in the world when they dominated. Even Murica was at the receiving end of Brit grown opium in India, the Boston Tea party was not about tea but about taxing drug supply which local drug agents staged a mutiny, "No taxation without representation". Yes, drug the rest, make them subservient and milk the profits and dictate terms. This is the paradigm the Deep State wants.
Last edited by bala on 13 Mar 2022 01:55, edited 2 times in total.
John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3447
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by John »

Ka-52 was shot down, Ukrainians are reporting two but only one seen in pics RF-13409.


https://twitter.com/defenseexpress/stat ... 75236?s=21

Russia also posted video of Hostomel airport attack at start of invasion

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1502 ... 14849?s=21
yogeshkumar
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 65
Joined: 06 Mar 2022 07:44

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by yogeshkumar »

In regards to comparison of Iraq war with current Ukraine situation:

1) Most of Ukrainian army is hiding in cities and population centers: Russia can't afford to target civilian locations in big cities. That would turn most of the population against Russia. In case of Iraq, Bush and Blair had no issues bombing Iraqi resistance.. no matter where it came from. They literally bombed the whole city of Fallujah to rubble.

2) Russian plan should have been to just cut off the supply lines to big cities in Ukraine and then just wait.

3) Really perplexing - why Russia has allowed shipment of new lethal weapons into Ukraine.. even today it is coming in non-stop. Russia's focus should have been to bomb all the Roads coming from Poland border into Ukraine. Bomb the bridges so that NATO military supplies couldn't come in. Including Railway lines. You never know - US/UK might be shipping weapons via Railway lines.

4) Until all MANPADS/ATGM are taken out.. just bomb the hell out of all military installations, communication centers, TV stations in Ukraine - Via Missiles. Ukrainian side of war is controlled by NATO (specifically US/UK and Poland). Cut all the communication means. All cell phone towers, internet cables, satellite communication stations.

5) Russia can produce these guided missiles at home. Run the factories 24/7.. make as many missiles as possible to replenish the stock. Don't stop firing missiles until all NATO supply routes are fully destroyed.

Now I understand - It is all easier said than done (and to be an Armchair general).. but not sure why Russia isn't doing this. Russia maybe doing some of this.. but not at scale it is needed.
yogeshkumar
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 65
Joined: 06 Mar 2022 07:44

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by yogeshkumar »

https://www.rt.com/russia/551765-wester ... ne-target/

Wonder why Russia is still hesitating to target the lethal military supply convoys n Ukraine. In the news link above.. they are just warning they may target these convoys in Ukraine. Helloo..these supplies are coming in to kill your soldiers!! Russia needs to take them out as soon as they enter Ukraine. Should have been doing since day 1 of war.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10069
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Mort Walker »

yogeshkumar wrote:In regards to comparison of Iraq war with current Ukraine situation:

1) Most of Ukrainian army is hiding in cities and population centers: Russia can't afford to target civilian locations in big cities. That would turn most of the population against Russia. In case of Iraq, Bush and Blair had no issues bombing Iraqi resistance.. no matter where it came from. They literally bombed the whole city of Fallujah to rubble.

2) Russian plan should have been to just cut off the supply lines to big cities in Ukraine and then just wait.

3) Really perplexing - why Russia has allowed shipment of new lethal weapons into Ukraine.. even today it is coming in non-stop. Russia's focus should have been to bomb all the Roads coming from Poland border into Ukraine. Bomb the bridges so that NATO military supplies couldn't come in. Including Railway lines. You never know - US/UK might be shipping weapons via Railway lines.

4) Until all MANPADS/ATGM are taken out.. just bomb the hell out of all military installations, communication centers, TV stations in Ukraine - Via Missiles. Ukrainian side of war is controlled by NATO (specifically US/UK and Poland). Cut all the communication means. All cell phone towers, internet cables, satellite communication stations.

5) Russia can produce these guided missiles at home. Run the factories 24/7.. make as many missiles as possible to replenish the stock. Don't stop firing missiles until all NATO supply routes are fully destroyed.

Now I understand - It is all easier said than done (and to be an Armchair general).. but not sure why Russia isn't doing this. Russia maybe doing some of this.. but not at scale it is needed.
Agree. From day 1 it should have been cutting off all comms, power, water, road and rail lines. At least to the largest cities and key points in the west where resupply can come in.
bala
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2044
Joined: 02 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Office Lounge

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

Mort Walker wrote: Agree. From day 1 it should have been cutting off all comms, power, water, road and rail lines. At least to the largest cities and key points in the west where resupply can come in.
There is a saying in the South, "After you decide, don't question your decision", and in wars when decided upfront, there is no point wavering. Russia is wavering in the fight and needs to re-evaluate their resolve. This is the same lesson Lord Krishna gave to Arjuna when Arjuna faces a dilemma on the battlefield, rooted in the feeling of svajanatva - one’s own-ness. "You are the general of the Pandavas, you need to fight, it is your duty", says Krishna to Arjuna. Being the Supreme, he also says I have already killed the kauravas mentally, go ahead and fight, you will be victorious.
John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3447
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by John »

yogeshkumar wrote:https://www.rt.com/russia/551765-wester ... ne-target/

Wonder why Russia is still hesitating to target the lethal military supply convoys n Ukraine. In the news link above.. they are just warning they may target these convoys in Ukraine. Helloo..these supplies are coming in to kill your soldiers!! Russia needs to take them out as soon as they enter Ukraine. Should have been doing since day 1 of war.
Russians can’t target even if they want to without losing large # of ACs, those convoys are to the west where is large amount of Ukr SAM and ACs stationed. Most of the strikes to the west are using Kalibr cruise missile.
ManuJ
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 442
Joined: 20 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by ManuJ »

Cyrano wrote:[Zelinsky] He seems to be fighting from the shadows with a shadow army... very clever, but at tremendous cost to common Ukr people.
The cost, to both the Russians and the Ukrainians, has been imposed by Putin.

Zelinksky is doing what any good wartime leader whose country is being attacked by a superior country would do - he is uniting his countrymen in a desperate fight for survival, while at the same time pressurizing the rest of the world (at least the western world) to support the underdog.
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9341
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by IndraD »

Zelensky tone and tenor is that of confrontation, he is being controlled, he wants to challenge Putin for peace, given inflammatory bytes like Putin talk to me I don't bite. He posts videos everyday asking people to fight, daring NATO to impose no fly zone but has no reality check on where will this all end when US & Eu are refusing to get sucked in the war.
m_saini
BRFite
Posts: 769
Joined: 23 May 2020 20:25

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by m_saini »

ManuJ wrote:Zelinksky is doing what any good wartime leader whose country is being attacked by a superior country would do - he is uniting his countrymen in a desperate fight for survival, while at the same time pressurizing the rest of the world (at least the western world) to support the underdog.
Pressurizing the world how exactly? Zelensky has no influence over anyone or anything.

Uniting his countrymen? No offense, but the dude comes off as extremely cheesy getting his picture taken in camo, wearing a vest and going off on how he is going to fight till the end. I hope Ukrainians aren't stupid enough to believe the brouhaha.

Also hope the good wartime leader realizes it's the western media and governments that are holding his country together. Real life is no comedy sketch.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5528
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Just listened to ex Indian ambassador to Russia Kanwal Sibal on Jaipur Dialogs, he mentioned something interesting: 50% of Ukranian parliament members are of dual nationality - Ukraine and US. That's why most speak such decent English. Coming from him, I'd consider it as fairly reliable info.

Now in the light of that, please reevaluate what you think of Zelinsky and Ukraine's actions and attitude since say 2014.
Atmavik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2004
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Atmavik »

Ukraine War - Ukrainian Soldiers Knock Out Russian Tank With NLAW In Point Blank Ambush

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfRcmJTAouM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icSJPqkzupI


This is a strange war where armoured vehicals are sticking to Roads. in every Russian(or Indian) exercise we see armour columns dashing thru fields but reality looks different. they are lucky that UKR is lightly armed and does not have much airpower. when Iraqi's tried to retreat thru highways they were decimated. dont tell me that the Russians dont have GPS?? they only seem to move to the fields when hit. the

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death

looks like with urbanisation mass armour movement will be restricted unless it is in deserts. we also need to look at this in our scenario with Paki population being dense in the punjab plains. and if we have to fight Armoured battles in the Desert then Arjun is King.
bala
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2044
Joined: 02 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Office Lounge

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

ManuJ wrote: Zelinksky is doing what any good wartime leader whose country is being attacked by a superior country would do
So far Zelinsky has been an idiot. Being a comedian does not help. You don't want a nothing country like Ukraine in the middle of a fight between Deep State Nato and Russia - there are nuclear weapons involved. This is basic. Now he finds himself with no help from either sides. As a leader he has failed. Russia is going to get its way (i.e. no NATO with nuke missiles pointing towards Russia) no matter what. Zelinsky is presiding over the destruction of Ukraine. The Deep State does not care one bit about the destruction, in fact, they want it, pesky Nazi tendency will get decimated.
Post Reply