Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

alok_m · Post by **alok_m** » 14 Mar 2022 10:27

US has shown almost all the cards to the rest of the world. Apart from their military iron fist that most countries saw in various countries last few years, they have shown how ruthlessly they can ruin a country as large and militarily powerful as Russia. For me, the biggest revelation has been their complete control over all social media, anyone who shows pro Russia slant on twitter etc are being banned on flimsy grounds.
I really believed that a country like US would never nullify the USD reserves of a major country without serious repercussions to their own economy. Since this has happened every country would plan how to get rid of the western currency reserves. Otherwise its a situation of modern slavery of western system.

bala · Post by **bala** » 14 Mar 2022 10:34

Nuclear weapons changes the equation radically. Russia and USA will not engage 1-on-1, they will use other nations to instigate them towards war/fighting. Anytime anyone of them is directly involved the other feigns and demurs. The US - China tussle is similar. All posturing is for media consumption. Once China invades Taiwan the US will not want direct confrontation. I am sure the US is making doubly sure that the invasion does not occur in the first place.

What I am not sure of is about the US - India engagement, an overt tussle will never happen. The US will try to undermine India using devious methods (borrowed liberally from the Brits) but as India grows economically it would place India similar to China. That is a problem for the US to deal with.

kit · Post by **kit** » 14 Mar 2022 10:55

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/boris-johnson ... 40638.html

Boris Johnson to visit Saudi Arabia for oil talks as 81 people executed in kingdom

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 14 Mar 2022 11:01

It is amusing that this thread is dominated by pro-Russian slant (as one would expect), yet there are nuggets like "I never thought that there would be so many people falling for Western propaganda." Here is a counterpoint. The only reason US is getting away with cancellation of Russia is maybe because Putin's Russia has given more than enough justification to do so. Ukraine is NOT Syria. It is at the doorstep of Nato boundaries and there was always going to be a much stronger reaction.

In my opinion: It is not in India's interests that the "western cabal" is taken down by Russia. Russia is never going to be able to do this without the help of China and if China is successfully able to help Russia take down the "western cabal" then Putin will willing sell his own mother, forget about defending India's interests. Unless, ofcourse, India decides to join Russia and China. But can we really trust China more than the "western cabal"?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 14 Mar 2022 11:29

West does not need any actual justification to do what it wants to do anyway. The sanctions on Russia were there for many years. Now only went further live never before. As far as China benefiting from the conflict between Russia and the West, the West is bent upon creating a war with Russia instead of trying to win over Russia to its side. Same with Bharat. Western Deep State and its actors are involved in almost every significant "agitation" in Bharat. Many divisive forces in Bharat are actively funded and supported by the West ( and China also).

If anything, the last few weeks have shown to us how we need to take care of ourselves not just in defence but also in financial and economic areas. We need to be independent in most fields, and even a tiny amount of dependency will be fatal to us. Let us not forget the US banned exports of much-needed inputs for our vaccine manufacturing efforts when COVID's first wave was at its peak. They, like China, will be utterly ruthless when we give them a chance.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 14 Mar 2022 11:32

Simply put, its not our fight but an important lesson learned.
India needs to get atam-nirbhar else face consequences even worse than Russia with our dependence on so may countries.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 14 Mar 2022 11:50

PRC is a clear enemy, no doubt. But PRC is a known enemy.

The globalist western order is an unknown enemy. They have shown that they don't care about innocents they will use any population immature enough to be used. In order to get what they want.

That makes them much more dangerous when compared with PRC. PRC are a bunch of brutes. They don't wear the mask or universal values, fooling the gullible masses.

As compared to the west.

Besides the western order has to be smashed to bits in order for a peaceful multi polar world to emerge.

Raja, we are looking at the threat presented by the way the west has provoked this conflict with Russia over the last 30 years.

PRC are a bunch of amatures compared to that.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 14 Mar 2022 11:54

Tentacles of west in India are deeper and much more invasive than what China has. If real damage needs to be done, the means are with west. While China is a threat, its no where near as what US has just demonstrated using the tools they have.
Like they say, look at the capabilities than intent. The intent can come later.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 14 Mar 2022 11:58

However, India is much more suspicious of Western entities due to both colonial and post WW2 history. If any Western entity is able to gain influence in India, it is only due to internal divisions within India. Creating domestic competitors is one thing, but there's no reason to live as an island like before the 90s.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Mar 2022 12:02

An alliance with Russia addresses China's biggest weakness - access to energy & Raw material which do not have to be imported through sea route that can be interdicted or sanctioned. That is not a good thing for us.

Russia's biggest weaknesses are:
1. A declining population &
2. Lack of productivity due to inability to access technology.
GDP Growth = Popl growth * Productivity growth.

Expect a growing alliance with China to bring hi-tech to Russia and possibly vast infrastructure projects with millions of Chinese workers.
It might be 10X of the CPEC investments, with a lower risk of losing money in the bottomless pit that is Pakistan.

kit · Post by **kit** » 14 Mar 2022 12:09

Raja wrote:It is amusing that this thread is dominated by pro-Russian slant (as one would expect), yet there are nuggets like "I never thought that there would be so many people falling for Western propaganda." Here is a counterpoint. The only reason US is getting away with cancellation of Russia is maybe because Putin's Russia has given more than enough justification to do so. Ukraine is NOT Syria. It is at the doorstep of Nato boundaries and there was always going to be a much stronger reaction.

In my opinion: It is not in India's interests that the "western cabal" is taken down by Russia. Russia is never going to be able to do this without the help of China and if China is successfully able to help Russia take down the "western cabal" then Putin will willing sell his own mother, forget about defending India's interests. Unless, ofcourse, India decides to join Russia and China. But can we really trust China more than the "western cabal"?

kit · Post by **kit** » 14 Mar 2022 12:23

Understanding the Bear

so was it all NATO expansion ?..maybe not.. read on

Excluding Russia’s gas reserves in Asia, Ukraine today holds the second biggest known gas reserves in Europe.
An estimated 58.6 billion cubic metres of natural gas, millions of tons of natural-gas condensate, and 2.53 million tons of crude oil are concentrated around the Crimean peninsula and its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)… which the Russians control.

When Putin seized Crimea, got the audience back home all pumped up and patriotic, got control of the Crimean EEZ with all the gas, and most importantly secured the warm water port of Sevastopol, he missed out on — the North Crimean Canal, the waterway bringing irrigation to the arid steppe !

This water shortage was only accentuated by the effects of climate change and this coupled with surging food prices and international isolation because of western sanctions threatened to undermine Putin’s promise of a better life for Crimeans under Russian rule.

One of their first actions after invading Ukraine was unblocking the canal

kit · Post by **kit** » 14 Mar 2022 12:30

Raja wrote:It is amusing that this thread is dominated by pro-Russian slant (as one would expect), yet there are nuggets like "I never thought that there would be so many people falling for Western propaganda." Here is a counterpoint. The only reason US is getting away with cancellation of Russia is maybe because Putin's Russia has given more than enough justification to do so. Ukraine is NOT Syria. It is at the doorstep of Nato boundaries and there was always going to be a much stronger reaction.

In my opinion: It is not in India's interests that the "western cabal" is taken down by Russia. Russia is never going to be able to do this without the help of China and if China is successfully able to help Russia take down the "western cabal" then Putin will willing sell his own mother, forget about defending India's interests. Unless, ofcourse, India decides to join Russia and China. But can we really trust China more than the "western cabal"?

Guess you are too young to understand what would have happened if the US seventh fleet and the British armada were not stopped by the Russian Navy in 1971. the India you know now would not be there intact!

This war is not just about China s rise but Indias as well

kit · Post by **kit** » 14 Mar 2022 12:36

bala wrote: Once China invades Taiwan the US will not want direct confrontation. I am sure the US is making doubly sure that the invasion does not occur in the first place.

That will happen eventually., the "west is already preparing for it by taking away the latest semiconductor foundries in their own lands !! ( read where the 5nm fabs are coming up)

For all the drama , the west has already given up Taiwan., all the lip speech is for public consumption. They care only for their interests. I hope India follows suit in setting a whole semiconductor manufacturing chain

alok_m · Post by **alok_m** » 14 Mar 2022 12:51

Raja wrote:The only reason US is getting away with cancellation of Russia is maybe because Putin's Russia has given more than enough justification to do so. Ukraine is NOT Syria. It is at the doorstep of Nato boundaries and there was always going to be a much stronger reaction.

Nato boundary has nothing to do with this so called cancellation because the boundary was pushed towards Russia in the first place. Anyways the US does not need any reason to bomb a country to oblivion as has happened many times in recent years. US lost the war in Afghanistan and now have to do something to show the world and specially their populace.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 14 Mar 2022 14:13

Isn't it amazing that a country that has not won a single war out side of former Yugoslavia thinks that it can fight a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine and win.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 14 Mar 2022 15:57

An Antonov factory and a marine turbine engine factory in Ukraine have been struck by Russian air raids/missiles/artillery. This will have some serious impact for Indian AN32 fleet and naval ships on order from Ukraine.

mody · Post by **mody** » 14 Mar 2022 16:24

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ru ... d=msedgntp

Surprising Russian military failures in Russia.
Has important lessons for India. Secure SDR based communication, large stockpile of precision guided weapons and co-ordination and synergy between the three services is an absolute must.

The Russian tactics in this war have been fairly surprising. Maybe once the war is over the strategy followed and how the whole invasion was conducted can be analyzed in detail. During the initial few days, it seemed the war would be over within a week. Russian helicopters could be seen flying fairly low and large number of Ukrainian radar sites etc. were shown to have been completely destroyed. The moral of the troops and what was the task and objectives given to the mid and lower ranking officers seem to be a problem. Some reports also suggested that some officers of the Russian FSB actually leaked the info about some Chechen forces that were sent in, leading the complete annihilation of the Chechen force.

The market for Russian military hardware is sure to take a beating, first due to the sanctions and also due to lack of performance in this war. After the Syrian campaign, the trajectory seemed to be opposite.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 14 Mar 2022 17:06

Russian tactics have been surprising because their initial strategy was to take the cities without much damage and force a deal with Ukraine. Also, they didn't send their whole force in the first few days to see the reaction of NATO and see if they really came to Ukraine's aid. So, they mainly sent in recon force full of soviet junk and conscripts.
After a few days it became clear, NATO would not involve itself, they started committing full force allocated for this invasion. Since the NATO spy planes are still around, they never used their hi tech equipments. This is no reflection of what their real wares can do.
Russia thinks they can capture Ukraine without using those and probably saving it all up to use against NATO of a need arises.

Added later:
They have used their fire power very carefully and can be seen in the panic in foreign mercenaries who are abandoning from the uneven fight.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 14 Mar 2022 17:08

The Russians may not have wanted to turn this war into a humanitarian disaster and wanted to ensure at least a part of the Ukraine population stays on their side. That is why they have not employed the usual shock and awe tactics seen in Iraq and Syria.

They may not also have deployed their first line troops here. Theie frontline formations may be staying in their positions.....similar to our deployments in Kargil conflict or with the Rashtriya Rifles

bala · Post by **bala** » 14 Mar 2022 19:00

Deans wrote: Both the Western and China camp are competing for influence with the `Middle countries'.
I see the West and Middle group of countries facing two long term strategic threats:
- The aggressive rise of China &
- Islamic fundamentalism

The West cannot win an economic or military confrontation with China, or take on Islamists without aligning with the Middle group. India is their most important ally simply because its the 3rd largest economy in the world (in PPP terms) and growing faster than the 2nd biggest economy and a nuclear power. It's also the only country actually on the front line of both Chinese expansionism and Islamist terror.

Well put. I have for a long time said that the biggest immanent threat that the world faces is China and Islamic fundamentalism. India is simultaneously fighting both. Donald Trump is the only US President who realized this and took on both. India and US briefly were on the same side. The rest in the world are tolerant of both the threats. These threats are not to be brushed aside. Only when the rest of the world understand the threats there would be clarity of purpose otherwise the world is going to fumble over many pitfalls. Russia is now inevitably with China since it faces NATO.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 14 Mar 2022 19:06

India is actively working with UAE, Israel, and KSA after the abrahamic accords, while the USA refuses to recognize those accords, and this is when the KSA and UAE govts.. are trying to moderate their populace. USA is on the wrong side of the islamist fight, as it backs the likes of the worst regressive elements of islamism like the muslim brotherhood, white helmets (ISIS) and closer to home, the bangladeshi Jamaat-e-islami, MBr member Ilhan Omar is now a congresswoman, and driving USA's anti-India narrative along with Indian-american losers like Ro Khanna. So USA and India are not on the same side of what's coming, whether it is facing china or islamism. Time to stop looking at the US with rose-tinted spectacles.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Mar 2022 19:16

srikandan wrote:India is actively working with UAE, Israel, and KSA after the abrahamic accords, while the USA refuses to recognize those accords, and this is when the KSA and UAE govts.. are trying to moderate their populace. USA is on the wrong side of the islamist fight, as it backs the likes of the worst regressive elements of islamism like the muslim brotherhood, white helmets (ISIS) and closer to home, the bangladeshi Jamaat-e-islami, MBr member Ilhan Omar is now a congresswoman, and driving USA's anti-India narrative along with Indian-american losers like Ro Khanna. So USA and India are not on the same side of what's coming, whether it is facing china or islamism. Time to stop looking at the US with rose-tinted spectacles.

The Arab world and Iran are now closer to China than they are to the US.
I believe the reason is simply that China is their biggest customer. The US imports barely 8% of its Oil from the Middle east (or 5% of its consumption). China's share will only grow. while US will decline.
China will also start replacing the US as a source of import into the Middle East.
In this context, I believe the countries of the Middle East will come to some understanding on extremists. As long as their regime is not threatened
they won't crack down just because the US says so.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Mar 2022 19:28

I deleted my previous post by mistake, Reposting.

I would look at the forum's `pro-Russia' views (as you put it), differently.

There are no principles in foreign policy, only interests.
The only country's interests I'm concerned about is mine (India's).
In an ideal situation our interests would have best been served if there was no war and Russian and NATO came to an agreement that addressed
each others security concerns. Now that there is a war, its in our interest that it ends soon. It can end faster with a Russian victory, than a Russian
defeat, which is why I'd rather see a Russian victory (I define it as Ukraine/NATO agreeing to what Russia asked for pre-war).

In global geo-political terms, I see the world as simplistically divided into 3 groups i.e.
- Western democracies (North America, EU, Japan, Aus etc.)
- The China camp (Autocracies whose economy & policies are heavily influenced by China )
- The Middle (India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia are the prominent countries here)

Both the Western and China camp are competing for influence with the `Middle countries'.
I see the West and Middle group of countries facing two long term strategic threats:
- The aggressive rise of China &
- Islamic fundamentalism

The West cannot win an economic or military confrontation with China, or take on Islamists without aligning with the Middle group.
India is their most important ally simply because its the 3rd largest economy in the world (in PPP terms) and growing faster than the 2nd
biggest economy and a nuclear power. It's also the only country actually on the front line of both Chinese expansionism and Islamist terror.

Russia is the next most significant ally for the Western bloc. Irrespective of the outcome of this war, it will push Russia irreversibly into the
China camp. An alliance with Russia addresses China's biggest weakness - access to energy & Raw material which do not have to be imported through sea route that can be interdicted or sanctioned. That is not a good thing for us.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Mar 2022 19:33

If Russia wants to reduce NATO's influence on this conflict they could:
- Offer to work with Iran on nuclear technology (all Iran's enriched Uranium they gave up under the nuclear deal, is in Russia).
- Announce that they will sell seized weapons like MAPADS and AGTMs to whoever pays (i.e. ISIS. Al-Q etc).

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 14 Mar 2022 19:36

Deans: Announce that they will sell seized weapons like MAPADS and AGTMs to whoever pays (i.e. ISIS. Al-Q etc).

Never a good idea to handle lethal weapons to wackjobs -- may as well hand it to a chimp since the target selection will be just as arbitrary. Next thing you know some civilian target will pay the price.

Russia will stop once I has defined boundaries that are easy to maintain, while ensuring that Anti-russian part of Ukraine is land-locked and cannot be armed via the black sea route. As long as the anti-russian crowd cannot acquire lethal weapons, no reason for Russia to even attempt to govern them.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 14 Mar 2022 19:48

https://twitter.com/OpIndia_com/status/ ... TI9twpAAAA

Urgent regime change in Russia required to "solve" Russia, is the latest bit of gas from the anglo-saxons. Should be easy given how swimmingly well their ukraine project has gone so far.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 14 Mar 2022 20:04

Deans wrote:I deleted my previous post by mistake, Reposting.

I would look at the forum's `pro-Russia' views (as you put it), differently.

I am posting below a PEW research survey done on Indian attitudes towards the US, Russia, China, Pakistan. Caveat, this survey was done way back in 2017 and I have also not done any reading on the survey methodology but it shows that the US and Russia were roughly equal for favorable as well as unfavorable views back then. If anything has definitely changed, I would hazard that the unfavorable views on China have increased dramatically since 2017. There has always been a dichotomy between average Indian public opinion towards the US and Russia and the forum's generally favorable view towards Russia.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 14 Mar 2022 21:01

I am seeing lots of angst among muslims on LinkedIn, of all places! They are comparing Ukraine to Palestine and questioning the double standards.

Also, seeing many Indians in US liking/sharing posts on Ukraine and being very pro-Ukraine. Not wrong and I don't have any issues. But looks like the one-sided propaganda is having its effects. No one seems to question how Iraq was demonized as having WMD and justifying war, by these very same media which is now saying Russia is a terror-machine.

As Kargil, Desert Storm etc has shown, efficient media management is the key. and western media are ever true to their governments on foreign policy, irrespective of ideology. Something our media unfortunately lacks, and will go against interest of our own country for few pennies!

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 14 Mar 2022 21:05

putnanja:Also, seeing many Indians in US liking/sharing posts on Ukraine and being very pro-Ukraine. Not wrong and I don't have any issues. But looks like the one-sided propaganda is having its effects. No one seems to question how Iraq was demonized as having WMD and justifying war, by these very same media which is now saying Russia is a terror-machine.

The PEW global survey that says 79% Indians surveyed had a high likelyhood of swallowing US propaganda, actively working against this govt. in power. So none of the above should be surprising, since the PEW survey suggests Indians will believe anything from US media without questions for the most part. Russia seems to have failed on that psychological warfare against Indians, comparatively.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 14 Mar 2022 21:10

Reading some of the news tidbits over the last few days, it seems to me that the following scenario is starting to get traction.

Code: Select all

US and West against Russia, China (and Middle east)

The middle east part I am not really sure about, yet. If the west( especially germany

) has or develops the strength - militarily and economically, they would be able to pull it off.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 14 Mar 2022 21:12

srikandan wrote: The PEW global survey that says 79% Indians surveyed had a high likelyhood of swallowing US propaganda, actively working against this govt.

Could not find a screenshot of this in the PEW survey that I looked at. Was it a different survey? Will appreciate if you can post a screenshot or link. Thanks.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 14 Mar 2022 21:19

ldev: Could not find a screenshot of this in the PEW survey that I looked at. Was it a different survey? Will appreciate if you can post a screenshot or link. Thanks.

ldev ji: Just quoting the numbers from the survey you posted.

A "favorable view of the USA" is equivalent to "is a friendly state with respect to India" -- this level of trust easily translates to belief in the US viewpoint. One look at the print and TV media in India, and it is obvious that they just regurgitate reports from Reuters, AFP, or AP, and this is being fed to Indians on a daily basis, and we see the secondary effects on the points of view in this thread. QED.

We are all very programmable, once we choose to decide something is "trustworthy" -- it drops the filter to skeptically look at information from that source, unless we realize otherwise. The Indian govt. seems to think allowing foreign countries to manipulate news in India is a great idea, going by them allowing foreign media ownership in India without any constraints -- BBC and US channel spread fake news about India with impunity and we have the I&B ministry sitting nearby watching with avid interest and doing nothing.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 14 Mar 2022 21:28

Something’s cooking. Zelenskyy has cancelled his address to the Council Of Europe citing urgent and unforeseen circumstances.

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... unforeseen

kit · Post by **kit** » 14 Mar 2022 21:38

Baikul wrote:Something’s cooking. Zelenskyy has cancelled his address to the Council Of Europe citing urgent and unforeseen circumstances.

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... unforeseen

Need to get out of ukie

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 14 Mar 2022 21:50

Just as a matter of interest, the port city of Mariupol is becoming an absolute meat grinder, possibly the nastiest we will have seen in this war. Not the least because it’s the base for the right wing/ Nazi Azov Battalion who are quite the nasty bunch.

On the other side, for the Russians, the Azovs probably are the poster boys for the Ukrainian Nazis that Putin keeps talking about.

One can’t possibly overstate the hatred both sides have for each other.

Mariupol is surrounded on all sides by Russian forces, with an ever shrinking perimeter, and only the sea behind the Azovs.

This is old style WWII USSR versus Nazi Germany vicious urban battle being played out here. I don’t think we’re going to see many POWs this time.

Edit: Damn, Wikipedia’s already got something about it,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Mariupol

calling it similar to the siege of Leningrad

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 14 Mar 2022 23:07

the exodus of surviving foreign legion to poland, all western ex mil types with tours of duty, after just one dark night of terror without their air support and cover, makes me thinks the specced up/tactical image of western socom fanned by hollywood is a bit bloated.

here too the para SF are glamourized and expected to do impossible things without suffering any casualty.

the only thing that always works to kept oiled and ready under the pillow is 155mm tubes...lots of it.

having a trijicon/acog sight for every soldier is a great thing. but may not be the war-winning game changer its projected as...in absense of heavy support from a overall system.

https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/statu ... xP7hg&s=19

John · Post by **John** » 14 Mar 2022 23:26

Just as a matter of interest, the port city of Mariupol is becoming an absolute meat grinder, possibly the nastiest we will have seen in this war. Not the least because it’s the base for the right wing/ Nazi Azov Battalion who are quite the nasty bunch.

This seems to be Ukraine plan to slow down Russians and focus on hitting the supply lines, Kherson falling showed how if Russians had kept initial momentum they could have captured the cities before they dug in. Momentum was lost when forces got stuck up north and supply issues.

Hence my initial assessment was quite accurate, real test would come as ground starts thawing (late Mar) and it will be even harder to traverse the terrain.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 14 Mar 2022 23:41

Once the eastern front if mopped up the cream of Ukr soldiers are hung out to fertilize, I do not expect the war to carry on much. Easy to just sit outside the cities and get civs to get exfiltrate. then wipe the slate clean.

Let's check in a month where Ukr stands.

kit · Post by **kit** » 15 Mar 2022 00:03