Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 19 Mar 2022 19:39

Russian sources are talking about a “new phase of war”- focusing on use of stand-off weapons - including hypersonic and cruise missiles, to reduce ground force casualties.

Take that as you will. I believe they’re acknowledging that the campaign is more difficult than they perceived, and the need to reduce their casualties.

Quoting from a pro Russia channel:

https://t.me/intelslava/22820

The second phase of the military operation has begun. ……..unlike the first stage, the conduct of hostilities is built not on the classical concept of a large-scale offensive, but on the principles of “new generation” armed conflicts, when, instead of a ground offensive, priority is given to the use of long-range precision weapons and mobile special-purpose sabotage groups. Such an approach, although it will require more time …..will significantly reduce the possible losses of regular ground formations of the RF Armed Forces.

Thus, the military operation is increasingly beginning to look like a tough modern war by all the rules….

Also here’s an unverified video of the hypersonic missile in Ukrainian space:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hblpZvCLLfQ

While this is believed to be the actual strike

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... ame=iossmf

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 19 Mar 2022 22:31

The western part of UKie (Lviv), which was left quiet since the beginning of the conflict is no longer quiet. This is where most of the international press/media is reporting from. There are reports of airport area getting hit.

Russian cruise missiles target Lviv airport in pre-dawn strike

..cruise missiles, fired from the Black Sea several hundred kilometers away, hit the area...

As far as news/status reporting of Ukie waar, there is no such thing as "neutral" or "unbiased" reporting. Probably the best thing to do is read both ends of the spectrum and connect the dauts

One pro-russ source is https://readovka.news/. It is in Russian but can be opened in Google Chrome, which will automatically translate to English.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 19 Mar 2022 22:46

eklavya wrote:^^^
Let’s hope the Chinese deliver some useless weapons and that the US/EU do impose sanctions on China. Good for India!

Even without this war the US, Japan, EU and Korea restricted sale of complex chips and has now included Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam. The Chinese are slated to deliver the semiconductor devices needed for Russian weapon systems. It isn't that China produces these chips directly, but can source them a lot easier given the heft of their industries and economy. The US will restrict the sale of semiconductor materials and manufacturing tools to China and other countries. They will do the same for India as well if it starts making chips for its own use or under license for commercial/consumer devices (like Vietnam). “Should companies take steps to evade these controls, they run the real risk of being cut off from access to U.S. technologies,” a spokesperson for the Commerce Department said.

In other words, India will be forced to follow sanctions on Russia by other means. It hasn't happened yet, but is a real possibility. This is the reason why Russia should finish this war by early May at the latest.

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Mar 2022 22:47

a video has appeared where a woman turns on voice messages from a Ukrainian woman who now lives in Rome. The content of the message is reminiscent of yesterday's speech by Fakhrudin Sharafmal, the host of Channel 24 of Ukraine's television, who called for the slaughter of Russians and their children.

"Do you understand that now you are a Russian khan? You will now be caught one at a time in Rome. I'm going to go to jail, but I'm going to destroy them even here. I will even cut their pregnant women. I want their women and children to die, "the Ukrainian woman says in a voice message to the Russians, and also openly asks to transfer this information to everyone "in Moscow".

According to the author of the video, she shot this video for those who are "ashamed to be Russians."

"And I am ashamed that there is still this fascist scum on earth - this was said by a banderka, I still have such videos," the woman commented.

https://vk.com/video-163061027_456260301

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 19 Mar 2022 22:53

chanakyaa wrote:The western part of UKie (Lviv), which was left quiet since the beginning of the conflict is no longer quiet. This is where most of the international press/media is reporting from. There are reports of airport area getting hit.

Russian cruise missiles target Lviv airport in pre-dawn strike
..cruise missiles, fired from the Black Sea several hundred kilometers away, hit the area...
As far as news/status reporting of Ukie waar, there is no such thing as "neutral" or "unbiased" reporting. Probably the best thing to do is read both ends of the spectrum and connect the dauts One pro-russ source is https://readovka.news/. It is in Russian but can be opened in Google Chrome, which will automatically translate to English.

It wasn't the airport directly, but a Ukrainian military overhaul facility for aircraft. Supposedly, there were MiGs of unknown models destroyed in the strike and most likely other assets such as drones. I'll bet they get hit again. The runways are shared between military and civilian aircraft which is common around the world.

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 00:12

The History of Sanctions
https://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_ ... obal-en-GB

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 00:43

As a chinese guy has been saying ... verbatim.. " Russia and Ukraine war is birthing new geopolitical allies, countries are now aware that at any moment they could be "cancelled" like Russia if they don't create meaningful friendship based on similar interests.. if asia and middle east resolve their conflicts and prioritize peace they could counter America's aggression in the near future."

This was for Assads visit to the UAE

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 00:49

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 00:59

American Volunteer Soldiers Used As “Cannon Fodder” In Ukraine

Ukranian military has literally Nazis in them !!

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 20 Mar 2022 01:02

Certainly Russia is being cancelled but only for those with a virtual (pun intended) image of the country.

The image of India in MSM, social media is not positive. Cancellation here would mean negation of India for those whose image of India is virtual. That may include the English speaking classes. Something similar should be the case for Russia and certainly giant societies such as China, Indonesia and of course India.

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 01:09

sanjaykumar wrote:Certainly Russia is being cancelled but only for those with a virtual (pun intended) image of the country.

The image of India in MSM, social media is not positive. Cancellation here would mean negation of India for those whose image of India is virtual. That may include the English speaking classes. Something similar should be the case for Russia and certainly giant societies such as China, Indonesia and of course India.

And here is another quote from same source

Can you help me fight your friend so that I can concentrate on fighting you later?

and this regarding byedens call to Xi

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 01:15

How important is Russia to China ?

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 01:32

"test the proposition as to whether or how much China would support Russia " ..the answer the collective west is looking for at this point

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 01:48

no comments., how the "west" perceives the rest of the world !!

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 02:32

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 02:34

PRC Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian (03/10/2022):

“Never forget that there are three fingers pointing back to you when you point fingers at others. Those who accused China of standing on the sidelines on the Ukraine issue should ask themselves these questions: What roles have they played in this crisis? Who pushed for NATO’s expansion eastward for five times? Who have fueled the situation in Ukraine and hyped up and escalated the tension for months and allowed it to spiral out of control?”

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_6 ... 50654.html

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 02:34

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 20 Mar 2022 02:38

Russians have turned to Total war. they are turning cities to rubble. CM are causing massive damage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_FbbZVSygE

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 20 Mar 2022 02:57

Zelensky talks as if the Ukrainian forces are about to liberate Moscow.

Putin should be very afraid.

But yes it is never too late to talk. End the war.

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 03:45

Why half the world is silently cheering the Russians !!

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 20 Mar 2022 03:55

kit wrote: At least india and China are on same page here wrt Russia., true geopolitics, maybe it is possible to work with them ! ( not a precedent though. Both have similar views on climate change for example)

RICs having each others back will change geopolitics on its head. But maybe wishful thinking

Agreed. I keep thinking that with Russia and China becoming firm allies, and with Pakistan trying to cozy up to Russia while remaining a loyal Chinese vassal, and with China and Russia trying to keep a lid on Islamic uprisings in Central Asia and Xinjiang, it actually makes sense for Pakistan to abandon jihadism.

This is significant: up until recently, China encouraged Pakistan to behave as a terrorist state because it huts India. But now, China wants Pakistan to stop being a terror hub, because they don't want trouble in Xinjiang. Russia also wants Pakistan to abandon jihadism because they don't want trouble in Central Asia. Meanwhile, India wants Pakistan to give up terrorism because we don't want trouble in Kashmir. So we (India + Russia + China) all now agree on this point: Pakistan needs to clean up its act.

Meanwhile Pakistan, for its part, wants to cozy up with Russia while still remaining a Chinese ally, giving it a good reason to reign in the jihadism.

We have a convergence of interests here. Could the big three (Russia/India/China) build on this to become, if not allies, at least in a state of peaceful coexistence? The bargain would be: In exchange for India not drifting into America's arms, Russia convinces China to give up its longstanding hostility towards India, while both Russia and China pressure Pakistan to stop supporting terrorists.

This is the only arrangement that allows India to keep its strategic autonomy and avoid becoming a vassal of the west.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Mar 2022 07:30

I closed the report of kit's posts as it's the message and not the messenger we should listen to.
West is flooded with CNN type news reports.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 20 Mar 2022 08:04

kit wrote:

This is perhaps the most pithy and accurate depiction of what's happening.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 20 Mar 2022 08:52

Belarus diplomatic staff has left Ukraine. That’s one of the precursor to declaration of war.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-701765

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 12:35

Was listening to a German expert as commenting if they saw Chinese manufacturerd weapons in Ukraine it would cross some "threshold "; they don't really know do they

..Chinese are experts in labelling stuff..

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 20 Mar 2022 14:12

kit wrote:

no comments., how the "west" perceives the rest of the world !!

Sir, could you please explain this in few lines. Thanks

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 15:55

rsingh wrote:
kit wrote:
no comments., how the "west" perceives the rest of the world !!
Sir, could you please explain this in few lines. Thanks

no Sir please. The above picture is of social data analytics from a company tracking current activities in across all social media through out the world., trying to find how the western narrative has been effective in influencing opinion throughout the world.

They are gaming the human populace for their benefit using tech

It is high time India controls social narratives

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 16:40

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 16:43

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 16:45

It's quite telling that when you think not siding with you, means siding against you.
Only around 30~40 countries and regions around the world have actually sanctioned Russia.

There are 195 countries on earth today, which means that Russia is being sanctioned by only around one-fifth of the world at most. If you take population size into consideration, it’s even less than that - India and China combined have around 3 billion people, on a planet of 8 billion.

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Mar 2022 17:31

Humanity has been divided

Something has changed forever

Global divisions on Racism

Liberalism is skin deep

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 20 Mar 2022 19:20

kit wrote:Why half the world is silently cheering the Russians !!

One of the best interviews I've seen so far on Ukr-Rus issue...such an eloquent & well researched individual..."International division of humanity"...apt description. Thanks for sharing this gem.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 20 Mar 2022 19:24

Ukraine claims 15000 Russian dead, which is promptly reported by the BBC without fact checking.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 20 Mar 2022 20:29

kit wrote:

It's quite telling that when you think not siding with you, means siding against you.
Only around 30~40 countries and regions around the world have actually sanctioned Russia.

There are 195 countries on earth today, which means that Russia is being sanctioned by only around one-fifth of the world at most. If you take population size into consideration, it’s even less than that - India and China combined have around 3 billion people, on a planet of 8 billion.

Kit ji, those are just the countries that have sanctioned Roos.

There are several other countries that have criticised them (a huge chunk of Latin America and Africa)

Besides, these 40 nations combined are a economic behemoth. Other than Cheen, Roos doesn't have any major economic friend who can alleviate the pain of Sanctions.

Bharat isn't strong enough yet to support an old friend economically other than some spare change. Cheen on the other hand is a large enough market to buy whatever Roos can manufacture and supply whatever Roos needs.

skumar · Post by **skumar** » 20 Mar 2022 20:52

One interesting aside is the Russian tolerance of weapons being supplied to the Ukrainians; they have not raised any noise about it.

It is telling - the Russians probably believe it will not make a difference to the situation on the ground.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 20 Mar 2022 21:16

The funny thing about this conflict is that nearly all western sources are showing that Russia is loosing. The advance is stalled. That the Russian army men are demoralised.

But Ukrainian cities are bypassed and army is fixed in place.

Every other day some or the other Ukrainian city is isolated.

Based on the above i think that Russia is achieving its military objectives. Once most of military objectives are met. They can pull back and declare victory.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 20 Mar 2022 21:17

skumar wrote:One interesting aside is the Russian tolerance of weapons being supplied to the Ukrainians; they have not raised any noise about it.

It is telling - the Russians probably believe it will not make a difference to the situation on the ground.

That’s the thing. It is actually making a significant difference on the ground. ATGMs such as Javelin and NLAW, the Bayraktar drone, and the surface to air Stinger are believed to be among key reasons the Ukrainians have disrupted the Russian assault for so long. And taken out so much of their armour and other equipment. In fact the Javelin missile is referred to as Saint Javelin, and there’s a song about the Bayraktar drone- such is the confidence of the Ukrainians in these two weapon platforms.

This has been repeatedly cited, some examples:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business ... ore-brutal

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60774098

I think there’s a line between providing offensive and defensive weapons that the west is treading (and yes one can argue on definitions of offensive / defensive).

As opposed to these arguably defensive weapons, Russians reacted more strongly to possible supply of fighter aircraft to Ukraine, while the west has backed off.

This brings to mind a similar question - why did the erstwhile Soviets not respond more vehemently to the supply of Stingers in Afghanistan, if they were so successful.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 20 Mar 2022 21:24

Baikul wrote:.

This brings to mind a similar question - why did the erstwhile Soviets not respond more vehemently to the supply of Stingers in Afghanistan, if they were so successful.

Possibly ot for the topic.

Stinger was a factor only from 86-87. By which time the USSR had decided to exit Afghanistan. So the Soviet objective beyond that time was only to exit in a safe and organised fashion. Which was completed by early 89.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 20 Mar 2022 21:34

Tanaji wrote:Ukraine claims 15000 Russian dead, which is promptly reported by the BBC without fact checking.

15000 dead should mean 60,000 wounded badly enough to be combat ineffective. Another 15,000 POW, since the Ukies are offering large amounts
of NATOs unlimited money for conscripts to defect.

The Russian attacking force has been roughly 100,000 men (120 battalions of approx 800 men each), with roughly the same amount in rear areas.
So 90% casualties (or 50% if you tweak the numbers). At this rate, the Ukrainian army should occupy Moscow next week, when the Russian army
ceases to exist.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 20 Mar 2022 21:39

I am very sceptical of a side that announces enemy casualties, but not its own. Any country has far more visibility of its own losses than the enemy.
Recall that in Kargil or Galwan, we announced our casualties (correct to the last man) but not the enemy, since we could not be certain of that.

I would expect both sides casualties to be roughly in the same range (Russia's more since they are attacking, but not 10x more).