ramana wrote:We need some tight analysis of Wang Yi's visit.
Ramana, this is what I felt and I had written passionately about this in our think-tank circle too.
Reason for the visit:
China is nimble-footed in assessing and grabbing any opening. Its top-most priority is not Ladakh which it feels it can manage in spite of such severe setbacks. We would not go into reasons for that here. Its main worry is the Indo-China Sea and the ganging up of the QUAD. It wants to weaken the unity of the QUAD. In its opinion, and in the opinion of many others too, the weakest link of the QUAD is India because of its strong posture of 'strategic autonomy' and the still-lingering trust-deficit with the US that shows up now and then in spite of the extremely remarkable closeness in the relationship. It wants to chip away at every opportunity to remove that one pillar (the strongest pillar, India, of the QUAD after the US) that would unravel the QUAD. The UKR war has cemented the EU/US/NATO relationship. China is worried about this unexpected fallout which it looks at negatively. It viewed India's stance in the issue as the thin end of a wedge into the QUAD and the trip was a gambit therefore. The visit was to look for openings in this front. The Chinese readout after the meeting was a complete giveaway of this approach as it hinted at the impression of unanimity between India & China on these developments. India & China may only superficially appear to have a similar goal whereas the fundamental reasons are like cheese & chalk.
China is also in a difficult situation in supporting Russia openly as that country is economically more dispensable than say the US or EU. It also knows that Russia is malleable and would be more so in the coming months and years. China needs partners to fight sanctions and the Indian position offers it some hope of being able to work with India.
Of course, the Chinese work on multiple opportunities simultaneously so that even only two or three out of ten click, it would still be a good bargain in the end. China wants the BRICS & RIC meetings later this year to go through smoothly in Beijing especially with the National Congress meeting likely in October. The Xi-boat should not be rocked. In the RIC meeting that preceded the Beijing Winter Olympics by a few months, China is supposed to have brought to bear pressure on India through Russia to support the event and then it stabbed us yet again by deputing its Galwan officer to carry the Olympic torch. So, China would want to play it very safe.
China also wants to give the appearance of the border issue being at the consideration of the highest levels within China so that India does not do any surprise Kailash on them before October. Hence the invitation to SR Ajit Doval for the next round of SR-level meeting, which of course has been rejected by Doval.
Itinerary significance:
I do not read too much significance into the itinerary except for one thing.
Wang Yi wouldn't have given up the opportunity of addressing the OIC and commiserating with them on J&K because such a narrative serves China's deep interests. China fancies itself as a stakeholder in J&K now. Besides, it needs to divert attention from its own handling of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. He knew that a statement at the OIC can always be explained away to the Indians who are reasonable. He felt perhaps that a chance to meet him and discuss the border issue face-to-face wouldn't be let go of by India in spite of some 'carefully' provocative statement at the OIC. Cancellation of Wang Yi's trip would have been more appropriate.
Interactions in India:
I am sure that the EAM Jaishankar gave Wang Yi a mouthful. Wang Yi's body language when he briefly appeared for the photo-op appeared nervous to me. But, China needs to be admonished openly and paid back in the same coin. That's what they appreciate. Doval saw through the game and refused accept the invitation unless the status-quo ante of April 2020 was re-established. EAM Jaishankar also made it very clear that it is no 'business as usual', a position from which we have not resiled.
Aftermath in the neighborhood:
Don't see much of an impact in the Indian subcontinent.
What does this all mean to India:
It means to India that we have reached a dead-end in Ladakh, at least until the end of 2022. The reason I view it this way is that the Wang Yi trip was
*not* about the pressing border issue at Ladakh. At this point in time, Ladakh may not have any priority within the Chinese hierarchy and soon enough, they will all be busy with the 20th Congress. The emphasis on the talks appear to have been distinctly opposite between the two countries. Wang Yi, therefore delivered a subtle message there.