Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 11 Mar 2022 16:01

I think like in March 2019 PAF should shutdown its airspace for 4 months following the J10C crash at Mian Channu, unless they are saying an IAF missile from Sirsa took out thier new J10C near Mian Channu

This will make sure the PKR goes to relevant 1:3 against INR and in the 215-230 level against the USD.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 11 Mar 2022 20:28

Dimmy should demand compensation for the mijjile crash that caused irreparable damage to the Mian Channu economy in general and the reputation of the paki fizzleyas in particular.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 11 Mar 2022 21:35

I'm excited that Immydimmy will soon go 'ballistic' about it

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 17 Mar 2022 09:54

Jihadistan Post - less 'Daak', more 'Daaku' (dacoit)

yawn - Pakistan Post unable to clear Rs40bn electricity bills

The power secretary has called an emergency meeting on Thursday of electricity distribution companies, representatives of the ministries of finance and communications, the Pakistan Post director general and others to address the challenge, given the fact that power companies had to resort to expensive bank borrowing despite government guarantees to clear liabilities of fuel suppliers and power producers.

In its notice to the relevant stakeholders, the Power Division said Discos had claimed that “post officers have been illegally retaining their electricity bill collection since July 2021 and not transferring the collected amount to them, resulting in huge cash shortfalls”. perks of being a riyasat-e-kabila

It is worth noting that Pakistan Post works under the Ministry of Communications, headed by Murad Saeed, which topped the list of 10 best performing ministries issued last month.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 17 Mar 2022 11:54

Riyasat e Medina is 7th century Arabia with each tribe attacking each other on Camels, let Im the dim wish come true.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 18 Mar 2022 00:28

AoA! Islamophobia everywhere!

US court denies relief to Pakistan in Reko Diq case

District court tells Pakistan to comply with the $6bn award

Washington DC’s District Court has dismissed Pakistan’s motions for stay enforcement of $6 billion award against the country in Reko Diq case by the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) in July 2019.

The ICSID imposed a $6 billion fine on Pakistan on July 12, 2019 for revoking a contract for mining at Reko Diq in Balochistan. A British Virgin Islands (BVI) court also ruled on the matter, attaching Pakistan International Airlines’ (PIA) assets in New York and Central Paris to enforce the award.

Pakistan argued that it had not waived its sovereign immunity under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA) since no valid arbitration agreement existed.

Pakistan’s motion to dismiss was rejected.

the court closed its order by emphasising that the award was final

Wait till the fit hits the shan in baki newspapers.

Jihadi link: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2348337/us ... o-diq-case

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Mar 2022 08:10

Fiscal 2021 year was a good year for world trade in general . Many countries achieved all time high trade volumes . China crossed $4 trillion exports. India made it back into the top 10 overtaking several major trading countries (Singapore, HK, Canada, Italy, Belgium and more), likely to finish with $660B .

Even Bangladesh managed a splendid $48 billion. Pakistan on the other hand, is at just over $27 billion. Their nearest subcontinental comparison is no longer Bangladesh, who export $20 billion more, but Sri Lanka, who themselves had a terrible year. Fascinating for a country that was once far richer than South Korea. India meanwhile overtook South Korea for the first time in half a century, and is on the verge of overtaking the UK in merchandise exports for the first time in almost 175 years.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 24 Mar 2022 09:24

Great going. The game’s afoot. The inflection point has been reached.

mody · Post by **mody** » 25 Mar 2022 15:08

The pakis seem to have reached an out of court settlement for Reko Diq project. A lot of underhand dealings seem to have taken place, for the project to be back on track. The pakis managed to avoid a very big $6.5 billion bullet, though it could be that they have allowed the company to keep robbing them for a long time in the future.

https://mmnews.tv/reko-diq-deal-a-sigh-of-relief/

"Indeed, the new agreement seems to be an improvement from the past when international investors held 75pc of the project. But questions remain. For instance, the details made public so far don’t inform us if the investor plans to set up a refinery at Reko Diq for exporting precious metals or intends to take minerals out of the country in their raw form.

In case the company decides to export the metals in their raw form, do we have the capacity for determining the quantity extracted and moved out of the country, and to verify the exact revenue? The government owes it to the people of Balochistan as well as the rest of Pakistan to make all the details public for the purpose of transparency."

One more report.

https://magazine.cim.org/en/news/2022/b ... rnment-en/

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 25 Mar 2022 17:47

Mark my words - Pakis being Porkis will renage on this agreement too. This is classic Taqiyya.

Was the State/People of Balochistan consulted on this agreement and arrangement?

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 25 Mar 2022 18:05

AoDoubleA

1 US Dollar (USD) = 183 Pakistan Rupee (PKR)

Har'mi link: https://www.forex.pk/currency-usd-to-pk ... dollar.php

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 25 Mar 2022 18:10

Let's wish them alla speed to double century!

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 25 Mar 2022 18:10

Forex reserves hit lowest level since mid-March 2021

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves declined by $844 million during the week ended March 18, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said. The country’s foreign reserve assets dropped to $21.439 billion, lowest since mid-March last year, from $22.283 billion a week earlier.

The rapid rise in the country's import bill has also put a strain on its foreign exchange reserves.

Pakistan's imports grew over 65 percent year-on-year in the first half of this fiscal year, while exports rose 25 percent. Over the same period, the trade deficit has more than doubled.

Analysts said a depleting foreign exchange pile heightens risks the country may have difficulties meeting its forthcoming overseas debt repayment.

As per the international benchmark forex reserves should be sufficient to cover three months of imports, but at present our reserves probably cover 2.2 months of imports,” said another analyst.

How much of that reserve is capital temporarily parked as a result of begging tours by dimmy and his entourage of advisors and annual loans?

Haramiyon ka link: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/944420 ... march-2021

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 25 Mar 2022 18:33

Cyrano wrote:Let's wish them alla speed to double century!

Sri Lankan rupee went from around 200 to 290 (per USD) within 3 weeks. It is indeed surprising how PKR has been so resilient. Maybe the nukes do help make the beggar's case.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 25 Mar 2022 18:35

anupmisra wrote:..
As per the international benchmark forex reserves should be sufficient to cover three months of imports, but at present our reserves probably cover 2.2 months of imports,” said another analyst.
...

Anup Misra ji, why for are you applying kufr standards to al bakistan hain? Al Bakistan follows pure jumma to jumma begging.. err Accounting systems.

Now 2.2 months means about 12 weeks... ergo AL bakistan is rich

At least rich enough for bious Abduls to offer to give Halima baji clothes to wear over her inner wear..

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 25 Mar 2022 19:11

They still get oil from Gulf shiekhdoms on favorable terms without which the worthless PKR would have long crossed Rs200/USD and their so called reserves would have gone dry years ago. And yet this motheaten country which lives on alms has embassies all over the world including in latin america !

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 25 Mar 2022 20:38

Ambar wrote:They still get oil from Gulf shiekhdoms on favorable terms without which the worthless PKR would have long crossed Rs200/USD

Kufr, your Yindu heart and mind will always think "small steps". Think big! Bigger than big! Hope for 300. Because pakis believe in triple centuries. AoTripleA

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 26 Mar 2022 11:16

Cooking oil, ghee prices close to Rs500

KARACHI: As Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin on Friday approved a 10 per cent tax cut on the import of edible oil for April and May, the prices of ghee and cooking oil have already reached close to Rs500 per kg/litre ahead of Ramazan due to soaring palm oil rates and rupee devaluation against the dollar.

The prices of branded ghee and cooking oil are in the range of Rs440-490 per kg/litre in the market, Karachi Retail Grocers Group (KRGG) general secretary Farid Qureishi said, adding that people are compromising on the quality owing to a steep rise in prices.

He said this is the first time in my 40 years of experience that sales of ghee and cooking oil have been showing depressed trend due to high prices and squeezing purchasing power of people.

He said palm oil stocks had also never fallen to 150,000 tonnes at the port from the normal stocks of 250,000 tonnes ahead of Ramazan due to reluctance of industry and traders towards import of palm oil because of persistent rupee fall against the dollar and soaring palm oil rates in the world market.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 26 Mar 2022 20:22

^By 'Ghee' they mean dalda/vanaspati type hydrogenated oil, actual Ghee is called 'desi ghee' in Pakistan (and apparently in our Punjab as well).

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 26 Mar 2022 21:26

Correct. Desi Ghee is already over Rs 500 per kilo in India, so in Paki land it is bound to be triple that number in their currency. Surprised that cooking oil is just Rs 500 pkr/litre which is around Rs208 inr/litre, same as what some big brand oils cost in India, but i bet the Rs 500/litre in pakistan is for some highly adulterated , reused, repackaged oil like material.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 26 Mar 2022 23:30

Ambar wrote:Correct. Desi Ghee is already over Rs 500 per kilo in India, so in Paki land it is bound to be triple that number in their currency. Surprised that cooking oil is just Rs 500 pkr/litre which is around Rs208 inr/litre, same as what some big brand oils cost in India, but i bet the Rs 500/litre in pakistan is for some highly adulterated , reused, repackaged oil like material.

I have noticed several times that when I come across videos of Pakis complaining about extreme inflation and price hikes and actually look up the cited high prices in INR and compare with the cost of the same commodity in India, their prices are actually way cheaper than in India (where hardly anybody complains about them).

I think that it is due to a combination of the following reasons:
1> They are used to artificially low pricing, subsidized by the aid money that they have received from the west for 70-odd years. So even when they were richer than India, I think their prices were still lower. The elites of course steal most of the money but they probably use this and Islam to keep the underclasses from revolting.
2> Their standard of living is even lower than their low per-capita GDP would indicate, perhaps because their population is way higher than accepted (they haven't done any census in over a decade and for some reason their official population numbers that are mostly static are taken at face value by the IMF/WB type economists). So this level of price hike (added to point 1) really pinches them even if their pricing actually seems good by other countries standards.
3> Extreme income disparity, even compared with other developing countries like India. They have a super-wealthy feudal class that probably accounts for most of the GDP and wealth, a relatively small middle class and very large lower middle and poor class. Combine with 1 and 2 and you get a low per-capita of $1200 translating to way less than that in terms of actual income and buying power for the average person in the bazaar.

It is interesting to see the videos on Pakistan in the below youtube channel (by some European sounding tourist lady). She seems to take an interest in walking through 'well known' bazaars in various Pakistani cities and recording her walks. This gives you a good idea of their state of development, I haven't seen those kinds of places in mainstream areas of major Indian cities since probably a couple of decades, the only exceptions being in Muslim ghetto areas like old Delhi etc. Also, they seem to be just a couple of steps behind Taliban run Afghanistan with hardly any lady seen on the street without a burkha.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KwgqjcX0XE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kHpxvVxCNc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq1EtXTL7ZE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CkdM1mYNzk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_lnCgT8cDI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ci-j989H9U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ct7FVZ08A4

She also takes a car ride to Baharia (Navy) town in Lahore and you get an idea of how the elites live, by contrast (nothing special though, would be on par with most upper middle-class neighbourhoods in India). Apart from the absurdity of there being a Navy Town in landlocked Lahore, it also illustrates the income disparity in comparison with the above videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUgOTNdNxYo
Interestingly at the end of the ride she asks the driver if that was the poshest area in Lahore and he replies that DHA would be similar and adds that only mafia (maybe he was referring to the Baharia and Defence uniformed mafia indirectly) could afford to live there.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 26 Mar 2022 23:41

It is #3, they have a very negligible middle class, so you are either rich or you are very poor. I mentioned in another post in this thread that the menu prices even in their fancy restaurants in nicer neighborhoods is around 1/3rd or 1/4th of what you would pay in a similar restaurant in India. And yet when the masses constantly protest and complain about struggle for subsistence goes to show how much they have trailed India economically the last 25 yrs or so.

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 28 Mar 2022 04:09

#3 is also the hope of Khangress & co and might well be a plan in the future. with that the durbaris with some help from strategists like Chidu of the N S E and N P A fame would have moolah at Baki level and the rest would starve and be forced to salute the famiglia. Fortunately we have a decent middle class that values and validates aspiration and also keeps Khangress at bay

Nick_S · Post by **Nick_S** » 28 Mar 2022 13:41

"Bangladesh went ahead of us", Pakistan PM Imran Khan at a rally in Islamabad.

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1508 ... lbpUoxq08Q

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 28 Mar 2022 14:31

Behind the rupee’s humiliation

In the last two weeks, (between March 11 and March 25), the rupee lost more than 1.8 per cent value against the US dollar in the interbank market. During these two weeks, the local currency crossed the psychological barriers of 180 and 181 to a dollar for the first time. It finally settled closed at 181.78 per US unit on March 25 from 178.51 on March 11.

The central bank watched the rapid decline in the rupee’s value from the sidelines. It did not intervene to stop the slide. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) left the exchange rates to remain market-driven not only as a matter of principle amidst the ongoing International Monetary Fund’s review of Pakistan as part of the process before releasing a new tranche of the loan. It also had not enough forex reserves to quell the dollar’s growing demand pressure originating from external debt servicing, import payments and forex outflows on account of divestment of portfolio funds— from both the debt and equity markets.

Nearly $15bn worth of the central bank’s forex reserves is hardly enough to cover one and a half months of merchandise imports, leaving no option for it except to refrain from intervening in the market at times when the rupee begins a new round of slide.

But a disturbing aspect of Pakistan’s C/A deficit and consequent decline in the rupee value is that, unlike other countries that have been on this path Pakistan is taking a much longer time in the natural correction of this cyclical exchange rate depreciation.

Sadly, the country is also progressing far slower than other nations in correcting structural issues of its foreign trade, in particular, and lingering issues of its C/A and balance of payments, in general.

Unless export of workforce rises again to half a million a year, constantly high growth in remittances cannot be guaranteed. But is that possible? Only time will tell.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 28 Mar 2022 18:20

PKR freefall when?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 28 Mar 2022 18:24

Time PKR=SLR and similair Diesel Petrol Situation as in SL

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 28 Mar 2022 19:12

and yet diesel and petrol is around 25% cheaper compared to India ! I don't know if its just the broke paki govt trying to pacify the awam through subsidies or if its our govt which is tax hungry, probably both.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 28 Mar 2022 19:12

Thakur_B wrote:PKR freefall when?

As we speak...
1 US Dollar (USD) = 183.3 Pakistan Rupee (PKR)

Harami link: https://www.forex.pk/currency-usd-to-pk ... dollar.php

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 29 Mar 2022 11:11

No respite for falling rupee

KARACHI: Pakistani rupee on Monday maintained its record-breaking downward streak, as it depreciated beyond Rs182 against the US dollar for the first time in history owing to strengthening of the greenback globally and elevated international oil prices.

The rupee freshly depreciated 0.23% and hit a new all-time low at Rs182.19 against the US dollar in the inter-bank market, according to Pakistan’s central bank data. The rupee has maintained its record-breaking downward movement for the 10th consecutive working day, except Thursday (March 24) when it closed flat on a day-on-day basis. The currency has cumulatively lost 2% (or Rs3.68) in the past 10 days from Rs178.51 on March 11.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 29 Mar 2022 11:12

Dilbu ji need ur reverse blessing for 200

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 29 Mar 2022 12:20

Dilbu ji blessings also needed for Im-the-Dim to remain as the puppet... to accelerate Bakistan on its way to beat Somalia

Well it doesn't really matter who is the face.. As long as it is the inept Uniformed jihadis running the circus, the downward spiral of Bakistan, towards eventual implosion, is assured.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 29 Mar 2022 12:33

Ambar wrote:and yet diesel and petrol is around 25% cheaper compared to India ! I don't know if its just the broke paki govt trying to pacify the awam through subsidies or if its our govt which is tax hungry, probably both.

Are they still getting cheap/free diesel and petrol from Saudi and other Gulf countries? This will dry up on the long run.
Another factor of Pak survival is due to foreign remittances from the Middle East. But I understand Modiji is working on this.
Gautam

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 29 Mar 2022 12:46

India may have petrol 25% more expensive, but it also has vaccinated over a billion people for free, given free ration for 100s of millions for months, has roads and railways Pakis can only dream of, gives billions to the needy through DBT schemes, flies diaspora back at huge expense and effort... I can go on for a while like this. Yes, high petrol prices hurt the middle class disproportionately, but how many will forego all the benefits they get in India and move to Pakistan for cheaper petrol but without jobs to go to, no two or 4 wheelers to pour it into, and live in that medieval jihadi cesspool?

This petrol arguments are getting tedious saar...especially by comparing it to Pak.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 29 Mar 2022 18:16

g.sarkar wrote:
Ambar wrote:and yet diesel and petrol is around 25% cheaper compared to India ! I don't know if its just the broke paki govt trying to pacify the awam through subsidies or if its our govt which is tax hungry, probably both.
Are they still getting cheap/free diesel and petrol from Saudi and other Gulf countries? This will dry up on the long run.
Another factor of Pak survival is due to foreign remittances from the Middle East. But I understand Modiji is working on this.
Gautam

Around 6 months back KSA agreed to vendor finance Pakistan's oil purchase from Aramco upto $1.2 billion/year in addition to the $3 billion they deposited with the Pakistani central bank which can potentially be used for imports. Similarly UAE has extended the term of $2 billion dollar loan and has allowed Pakistani energy consortium exploration and drilling rights (where Pakistan will find capital to do any exploration in UAE is unclear). Other than its larger-than-the-country military, Pakistani government has little to no expenses, so i guess that's one reason why they can continue to sell petroleum products at the current prices.

OT : As for GoI, the high taxation on fuel is nothing new but the story of our abysmal infrastructure is rather old. Roads , atleast national highways, started to improve only from around 2007 onwards but with it came an exponential increase in the number of tolls and increase in sales tax and registration fees on autos (GST and cess alone is over 40% not counting the other RTO fees) . Vande Bharat flights and trains are not free and never were. By repeatedly restricting international carriers for 2 yrs, GoI gave the cash strapped Air India a much needed boost before handing it over to its new owners. While Govt.of India certainly has a lot more expenses compared to a feudal Pakistan, it is preposterous to believe our tax levels are justified given the quality of life aam junta gets in return.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 30 Mar 2022 10:27

Is it irony if it comes from Iron brother ?

Yawn - Islamabad needs to curtail imports, says Chinese envoy

China’s Consul General Li Bijian said on Tuesday Pakistan should reduce imports from the largest Asian economy as the bilateral trade is highly skewed against Islamabad.

At a ceremony to mark the beginning of the local assembling of Chinese home appliances brand Midea, Mr Li said the “heavy imbalance” in the bilateral trade is a “problem” that Islamabad should resolve through import substitution.

“You import more and export less, even though my government in collaboration with your government is trying to narrow down the trade deficit. We want to see balanced trade,” he said.

According to import payments data issued by the central bank, almost one-fourth of the total import bill in 2020-21 originated from China alone. In contrast, China’s share in Pakistan’s export receipts was less than 8pc in the same year.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 30 Mar 2022 10:59

Manish_P wrote:Is it irony if it comes from Iron brother ?

Yawn - Islamabad needs to curtail imports, says Chinese envoy

China’s Consul General Li Bijian said on Tuesday Pakistan should reduce imports from the largest Asian economy as the bilateral trade is highly skewed against Islamabad.

At a ceremony to mark the beginning of the local assembling of Chinese home appliances brand Midea, Mr Li said the “heavy imbalance” in the bilateral trade is a “problem” that Islamabad should resolve through import substitution.

“You import more and export less, even though my government in collaboration with your government is trying to narrow down the trade deficit. We want to see balanced trade,” he said.

According to import payments data issued by the central bank, almost one-fourth of the total import bill in 2020-21 originated from China alone. In contrast, China’s share in Pakistan’s export receipts was less than 8pc in the same year.

Let bakistan reduce trade imbalance by exporting highly trained IT experts.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 30 Mar 2022 11:53

Looks like they dont like donkey meat, what else is left?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 30 Mar 2022 13:27

Rupee hits fresh low

In the interbank market, the US dollar appreciated 15 paisas against Pakistani currency to close at Rs182.34, against Rs182.19 of the previous session. The dollar closed even higher at Rs183.50 in the open market.

Dealers said prevailing political uncertainty in the country was diverting the government’s attention to focus on the dollar and rupee parity in the country.

They said no outcome of negotiations between Pakistan and International Monetary Fund (IMF) was also putting pressure on the local unit.

The rollover of Chinese loan was seen as another factor that’s putting pressure on the rupee in the local market.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 30 Mar 2022 18:19

Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio highest in region at 86 percent

ISLAMABAD: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Monday said Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio was the highest in the region at 86 percent in 2019, which further increased to 88 percent in 2020.

An ADB Institute report titled “COVID-19 and Economic Recovery Potential in the CAREC Region” stated that Pakistan has the third highest debt service that was, $15 billion or nearly 7 percent of the total for the CAREC (Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation) region in 2020.

All other countries except Mongolia had debt service of less than $5 billion in 2020. For Pakistan in the baseline scenario related to accumulation of debt, the ADB assumes that the primary balance was close to zero and the historical real interest rate was 2.7 percent.