Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[vijayk]

Ruble is back

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 631_1.html
Ruble becomes best-performing currency in March; soars to 83 to the dollar
The ruble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on Tuesday against a record low of 139 on March 7.

[John]

I have never heard of Russians claiming to have captured irpin. There was fighting going on but never a confirmation of capturing the city. So, the Russians probably pulled backhand Ukrainians are claiming it as victory. It is a small victory which Ukrainians are invested to hold.
I don't think hostomel will be given up.

VDV where fighting to take it since the start of conflict and finally succeeded on 13th in breaking thru to the center. However a offensive by Ukr forces in 3/21 pushed them out and looks like they retreated. Don’t have much information on losses or fighting

Here is image of VDV in Irpin
https://twitter.com/nigroeneveld/status ... 3elPZM_IIQ

[vinod]

I have never heard of Russians claiming to have captured irpin. There was fighting going on but never a confirmation of capturing the city. So, the Russians probably pulled backhand Ukrainians are claiming it as victory. It is a small victory which Ukrainians are invested to hold.
I don't think hostomel will be given up.

VDV where fighting to take it since the start of conflict and finally succeeded on 13th in breaking thru to the center. However a offensive by Ukr forces in 3/21 pushed them out and looks like they retreated. Don’t have much information on losses or fighting

Here is image of VDV in Irpin
https://twitter.com/nigroeneveld/status ... 3elPZM_IIQ

Russians may have had a presence but never publicised that they captured Irpin. The Ukrainians actually destroyed the bridges which connects to Kiev. No doubt Ukrainians putting up resistance to push back Russians, requiring them to regroup and plan another angle of attack.

[vinod]

Ruble is back

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 631_1.html
Ruble becomes best-performing currency in March; soars to 83 to the dollar
The ruble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on Tuesday against a record low of 139 on March 7.

EU and US are not going to cave in very easily. They may be betting on who can suffer the pain longer - Russia or EU. They are doubling on sanctions to push Russia over the edge sooner. If India and China bails out Russia now, Russia will be unstoppable by EU and US.

[chanakyaa]

Ruble is back
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 631_1.html
Ruble becomes best-performing currency in March; soars to 83 to the dollar
The ruble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on Tuesday against a record low of 139 on March 7.

Makes sense b'cas something radical happened here...Back to Gold Standard??

Time to dust off your old text books and read about Gold Standard and Bretton Woods

Russia sets fixed gold price as it restarts official bullion purchases

Starting this week, the Russian central bank will pay a fixed price of 5,000 roubles ($52) per gram between March 28 and June 30, the bank said on Friday. This is below the current market value of around $68.

5000 roubles == 1 gram of Gold == 5200 Rupees == $62 (today's prices)

That makes $1 == 80 roubles == 83.8 rupees

Did pootinsky just replace tholla with Gold in the Triangular Arbitrage of how FX rates are determined?

[yogeshkumar]

Twitter censoring and deleting ‘pro-Moscow’ Indian accounts

https://www.rt.com/news/553013-twitter- ... n-indians/

[yogeshkumar]

That makes $1 == 80 roubles == 83.8 rupees

Did pootinsky just replace tholla with Gold in the Triangular Arbitrage of how FX rates are determined?

Russia should just make it permanent. Russia is a net exporter (and most resource rich country in the world). If anyone can peg their currency to Gold, it is Russia. And they should do it because it will make their currency a gold standard.

[yensoy]

Ruble is back

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 631_1.html
Ruble becomes best-performing currency in March; soars to 83 to the dollar
The ruble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on Tuesday against a record low of 139 on March 7.

That is incredible. Putin knew exactly what he was doing when he required oil purchasers to pay in ruble. Western media is portraying him as a bumbling idiot. While I do not support violent means of achieving diplomacy, it is clear to me that western media is full of gas. By their predictions, the war should have ended 2 weeks ago and yet here we are.

[sanjaykumar]

As a disinterested party, the Russians are playing chess, the others are playing tiddlywinks.

[nandakumar]

We will know tomorrow whether Europe gets it's natural gas supply from Russia or not. Russia has said they want to be paid in Rubles. EU has said that would be a breach of contract.

[kit]

Twitter censoring and deleting ‘pro-Moscow’ Indian accounts

https://www.rt.com/news/553013-twitter- ... n-indians/

for sure "twit"er should be the first to be gaggled in any place where the next conflict starts.. all these media have shown their cards

[kit]

As a disinterested party, the Russians are playing chess, the others are playing tiddlywinks.

well., to be honest the game had a bad start lots of feints and what not.. but now it somehow "looks like" it got its act together., and its Russia of course i am talking about.,

Germany and Japan have got out of their post-world war straightjackets, and that is an achievement !!

Dollar has lost its pre-eminent position as the worlds reserve currency

Bretton woods system and Swift have become replaceable

We now have a multipolar world

[vinod]

We will know tomorrow whether Europe gets it's natural gas supply from Russia or not. Russia has said they want to be paid in Rubles. EU has said that would be a breach of contract.

Russians bankers are not yet ready for accepting ruble payment. Moreover, I think Germany has agreed to phase it in. So, it might not be the sudden turn of the switch. I suspect Poland might get shock treatment given their land being used by NATO for training Ukrainians.

[nandakumar]

I was looking at june quarter International Investment Position data published by BIS for the USA . The incremental inflow of liabilities to the US is roughly $1 trillion for the quarter. Of this only $200 billion is official flows (central bank deposits into Federal Reserve or purchase of US government bonds. The rest are private flows. As long a significant chunk of global billionaires aren't going to think of US as a safe haven for their incremental wealth or existing ones, dollar status as an international reserve currency is not going to go out anytime soon. All this talk of sanctions post Ukraine war will lead to people shunning dollar as a store of value is exaggerated,

[vinod]

Anyone who is invested in USD, that included all reserve banks as well, can't move away from it quickly without hurting themselves. Would india or China take a write down on their hard earned reserves? So, it will be a gradual process. And if it ever came to pass, US will lash out and everyone will have to brace for that impact.

[Pratyush]

^^^

I am reminded of the US dumping the GBP denominated debt during Operation Musketeer in 1956.

This immediately resulted in devaluation of the Pound by nearly 30%.

Indian or PRC might not have the choice. But if either can prevail on OPEC to sell in Rupees or Yuan. Dollar will come under a great deal of stress.

Especially when Biden is calling for taxation on unrealised gains. Which is essentially a confiscation of private wealth.

The removal of USD as a reserve currency is not that far off in that circumstance.

In 1989, no one imagined that USSR will nor exist on 1st January 1992. Yet it had gone away.

[Cyrano]

US and NATO have been training Ukrainian forces since over a long time. They have done this in plain view to undermine Russia since the fall of USSR, gave US passports to many many Ukrainians, sustained training missions in Ukraine and in the US flying Ukr troops back and forth, and accelerated the whole thing in 2014 with the Maidan revolution with Victoria Nuland leading it on the ground. DIA under pentagon has 60,000 people working for it all over the world, they have put significant resources behind this. But not only them. EU Nato countries have also chipped in all along.

Listen to this investigative journalist, from 1h25 onwards. The next half hour or so is telling. This is now an out and out US/NATO vs Russia war. While there is huge media propaganda by the west, given the years of preparation, training, arming and now the realtime C&C they have put in place to wage this proxy war using Ukrainians, its not so easy for Russians to triumph against such a determined, prepared and involved (except its soldiers) US.

[Manish_Sharma]

The Ruble is back. All post invasion losses erased. Amazing what gold backing can do.

https://t.co/Wu8PH4stz8 https://t.co/PdeMVdHI8L

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/stat ... Ecq7w&s=19

[John]

US and NATO have been training Ukrainian forces since over a long time. They have done this in plain view to undermine Russia since the fall of USSR, gave US passports to many many Ukrainians, sustained training missions in Ukraine and in the US flying Ukr troops back and forth, and accelerated the whole thing in 2014 with the Maidan revolution with Victoria Nuland leading it on the ground.

But this is standard training, Georgians have trained a quite a lot with NATO and Azerbaijan basically has Turkish troops on the ground training their forces.

Before the conflict narrative was Ukrainian forces where rag tag apart from everybody fav Neo Nazi group “Azov” and Special operations forces. We saw TDF running around in sweatshirt and jeans.

It is interesting how narrative has now changed to NATO turning them to elite fighting machines (guess the same didn’t work in Afghanistan). In my opinion Ukraine forces show evidence of proper training and organization which is expected not to the level of NATO but still better than I expected. But we cannot excuse the fact Russian army has clearly underperformed in terms of tactics, organization and logistics.

[Dilbu]

Yes it looks like Russians are not able to produce the shakinaw show everyone was expecting them to do in their neighborhood either because they sent in reserve forces initially as some are suggesting or due to superior resistance from Ukraine forces. But the fact remains that sanctions and other actions initiated by US and EU have failed to stop Russia. Russians are slowly but steadily achieving what they set out to achieve. It does help that Putin is not accountable to anyone for the cost and body count of the campaign. In fact it is only looking bad from body count perspective as Ruble is now steady.

[IndraD]

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/rus ... 05136.html
Russia offers oil to India at $35/bbl discount from pre-war price

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-03-31/
Britain respects India's decision to buy discounted oil from Russia

U.S. warns India, others against sharp rise in Russian oil imports -official https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive ... 022-03-30/

[Tanaji]

From the last link:

U.S. has no objection to India buying Russian oil provided it buys it at discount, without significantly increasing from previous years," said the source who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Some increase is allowed," said the source, who did not offer more detail.

Well thanks heaven saar for the mercy!

[bala]

It is about time the world wakes up and declares that trading is a fundamental right of nations and is not subject to Sanctions. Also all trade based on barter system is the model (no currency of any nation can dictate value), gold standard can be alternate for value. Tis tiring to see politics mixed with economics and day-to-day living of any human on earth.

[yogeshkumar]

Before the conflict narrative was Ukrainian forces where rag tag apart from everybody fav Neo Nazi group “Azov” and Special operations forces. We saw TDF running around in sweatshirt and jeans.

It is interesting how narrative has now changed to NATO turning them to elite fighting machines (guess the same didn’t work in Afghanistan). In my opinion Ukraine forces show evidence of proper training and organization which is expected not to the level of NATO but still better than I expected. But we cannot excuse the fact Russian army has clearly underperformed in terms of tactics, organization and logistics.

Whose narrative? Can you point to any Russian outlet that claimed Ukrainian forces were "rag tag"? I haven't seen any. It was western propaganda that Kiev will fold in 72 hours. That was the testimony that , even US Defense Sec gave in front of US Congress.

Coming back to comparing Russian forces against Ukrainian forces. They are the same stock. Same race. Both are Slav. Same ancestors. Its like comparing Indian army and Pakistani army and saying one army is tactically or racially better than other. Both are same Race (more or less). Only difference is in the weapons they work with, supply lines they work with, and how long they can sustain the fight (extent of internal and external support).

Its also a pathetic propaganda that Russian forces didn't do well in Kiev area. They reached there in 24 hour. But it was like "what do we do now that we are here"? You can't take a big city of that size (where enemy forces are embedded in residential buildings) without literally razing the whole city down. Razing Kiev was not the Russian plan. They thought people will support Russian forces.

But Russia under-estimated the fact that 90% of any population literally believe what they see and hear on TV and social media. And only media that Ukrainians have been watching is western propaganda for last 8 years.

[kit]

From the last link:

U.S. has no objection to India buying Russian oil provided it buys it at discount, without significantly increasing from previous years," said the source who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Some increase is allowed," said the source, who did not offer more detail.

Well thanks heaven saar for the mercy!

so much for "democracy " "independence" "ally". yada yada.. its just the law of the jungle

[Cyrano]

How would the US react if Russia was training and arming (hypothetically) separatist factions in California, Mexico, Quebec etc. I wonder...

Russia has tried some ambitious gambles at the start, which didn't work. I'd be critical if they didn't try such tricks. They got bogged down, reassessed and rectified and made significant gains. They underestimated the progress Ukrainian forces made over the past decade, got shafted in multiple contact points and pulled back, changed tactics. They may be spinning such readjustments as if that was the plan all along, but any sensible army would do the same to keep the morale of its forces and people up, and that of its adversary down. There is enough evidence and more to substantiate their claims of gains on the ground - no doubt made possible precisely because RA was willing and able to change strategy & adapt tactics when faced with inevitable surprises that are the reality of war. Like cede space to Chechen battalions when faced with hard core well trained Azov militias in Mariupol for example. I don't see RA acting on bravado or arrogance, I see that they are actually _prosecuting_ this war like a professional force led by intelligent and competent military leadership, which is not infallible but recognises its mistakes and corrects them quickly.

One top of all this, despite unprecedented and superior info war by Ukraine & Nato, they haven't been able to blame RA for excesses and war crimes, none of their accusations were backed by hard evidence, on the contrary the cases of opera hall, hospital bombings etc in which they accused RA for targeting civilians were debunked as legitimate targets since those places were clearly taken over and used by UkrA forces and militia attracting attacks by RA. Gives lot of credence to Putin and his general's statements that avoiding civilian casualties is high priority for RA, though I'd think numerous mistakes leading to civilian deaths would have happened despite the intent.

In fact, gruesome videos have emerged of Azov battalions etc committing horrible war crimes - knee capping prisoners, torturing and killing them afterwards, torturing civilians and drawing hakenkreuz (dont call its swastika, ever) on their dead bodies, shooting civilians who want to evacuate, using them as human shields while sheltering in and attacking from urban areas...

UkrA despite years of training, significant arming, realtime Intelligence and what I believe is US C&C has never laid out any strong defensive strategy, lost their AF and Navy, failed to create a network of canals/trenches in the plains opposite Donbas to slow expected enemy advances, or force RA columns into specific corridors that could have been mined, or equipped with defensive structures etc. but they keep whining for more arms, tanks, planes and more NNATO soldiers. They haven't won a single tactical battle decisively or made a single incursion into enemy territory, nor captured a significant number of RA POWs so far. What exactly will they have to negotiate with, except a uber victim card and surrender of surviving war criminals?

Despite all the bravado, I wonder how many Ukrainian soldiers prefer winning this war and staying back to rebuild their destroyed country _or_ get a US/EU passport for services rendered. Hard to say.

Many already have sent families into EU and they are being given residence permits pronto (at least in France - my neighbours have recently taken in a Ukr family of a mother & 2 teenage sons, for how long they don't know, I've volunteered to help them learn French twice a week, our kids to play with them etc...) and EU Govt financial support, full medical aid etc. I won't blame them if they prefer to stay here - heck I'd do the same in their place.

I seriously doubt if elenskiy (since Z is to be dropped now) will survive this war irrespective of the outcome. When the full truth comes out he won't be a hero. Ukraine's future is going to be sweat, blood and tears for foreseeable future. Just like so many small countries that got greedy or duped and sided with America.

[John]

Whose narrative? Can you point to any Russian outlet that claimed Ukrainian forces were "rag tag"? I haven't seen any. It was western propaganda that Kiev will fold in 72 hours. That was the testimony that , even US Defense Sec gave in front of US Congress.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10 ... 22.2037427

Since the escalation of Russian aggression in 2014, some positive steps which have been taken to implement best-practices in UAF lessons-learned processes. However, the article uncovers a number of organisational activities, structures and processes which could be improved to weaken the negative impact of bureaucratic politics and organisational culture on learning. It concludes with recommendations for the further development of UAF lessons-learned processes.

[Cyrano]

While comparing 2 military forces, same stock, same race, tall and handsome, SDRE, martial races etc are irrelevant. What matters is how they are equipped, trained, motivated and led. And the intelligence fed to them. Nothing else really matters IMO.

[SwamyG]

War is good business. Even the US stock exchange losses are more like a correction. Except the poor Ukrainians, everyone is going home with their share of the pie.

[Anoop]

https://youtu.be/8hFjQbeWKvQ

Worth watching. I didn't know about the Russian anger at being considered an outsider despite protecting Europe from 3 large conflicts.

[ks_sachin]

Its also a pathetic propaganda that Russian forces didn't do well in Kiev area. They reached there in 24 hour. But it was like "what do we do now that we are here"? You can't take a big city of that size (where enemy forces are embedded in residential buildings) without literally razing the whole city down. Razing Kiev was not the Russian plan. They thought people will support Russian forces.

Goes against 101 of combat tactics.

You dont explose your logistics lines in that manner without securing them and ensuring that they are protected.

If I was Ukranian that is exactly what I would allow the Russians to do - then pick them off and create bottlenecks.

Regarding support for Russian forces - again lack of intelligence leading to a formulation of the wrong tactics..

Afraid the Russian armed forces have shown themselves to be rather poorly led. But that was always going to be the case when you have a supreme leader and merit may not be the only requirement to progress up the ranks. Forget Russia we see that in the Indian armed forces. Generally conformists and people who will not rock the boat will progress up the ranks at the expence of more capable officers.

[Cyrano]

.
Regarding support for Russian forces - again lack of intelligence leading to a formulation of the wrong tactics..

Afraid the Russian armed forces have shown themselves to be rather poorly led.

Substantiation with some facts and examples will help. Else I'd say you're simply trying to pass of your ideas and leanings as battle ground reality. Which its not.

[John]

.
Regarding support for Russian forces - again lack of intelligence leading to a formulation of the wrong tactics..

Afraid the Russian armed forces have shown themselves to be rather poorly led.

Substantiation with some facts and examples will help. Else I'd say you're simply trying to pass of your ideas and leanings as battle ground reality. Which its not.

Well I can point out Russian retreat up north has been done with no air cover allowing Ukr forces to openly attack the retreating Russians. No excuse why no CAS is being provided.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... YN9IUzAQZw

[ks_sachin]

.
Regarding support for Russian forces - again lack of intelligence leading to a formulation of the wrong tactics..

Afraid the Russian armed forces have shown themselves to be rather poorly led.

Substantiation with some facts and examples will help. Else I'd say you're simply trying to pass of your ideas and leanings as battle ground reality. Which its not.

What ever floats your boat Cyrano.

Let me be clear I am not talking about leadership at an engagement level but at a higher level of operational planning. I question if it is good leadership to venture into an operations without really understanding the limitations - which includes how the local population would react or the limitations of 60 or 70 km convoy of vehicles without shoring up your flanks.

Military history is replete with such hubris and if that does not suit, speak to officers in the IA about basic combat tactics and operational strategy.

the evidence speaks for itself and you also have also to extrapolate from other sources on the state of the Russian forces - in the past and today. A leopard does not change its spots not these kind of spots anyway without a total RMA kind of thinking. RMA is not just shiny missiles and fancy fighter planes I hope you agree.

All from me..

[yogeshkumar]

Its also a pathetic propaganda that Russian forces didn't do well in Kiev area. They reached there in 24 hour. But it was like "what do we do now that we are here"? You can't take a big city of that size (where enemy forces are embedded in residential buildings) without literally razing the whole city down. Razing Kiev was not the Russian plan. They thought people will support Russian forces.

Goes against 101 of combat tactics.

You dont explose your logistics lines in that manner without securing them and ensuring that they are protected.

If I was Ukranian that is exactly what I would allow the Russians to do - then pick them off and create bottlenecks.

Regarding support for Russian forces - again lack of intelligence leading to a formulation of the wrong tactics..

Afraid the Russian armed forces have shown themselves to be rather poorly led. But that was always going to be the case when you have a supreme leader and merit may not be the only requirement to progress up the ranks. Forget Russia we see that in the Indian armed forces. Generally conformists and people who will not rock the boat will progress up the ranks at the expence of more capable officers.

Military capability of Russian forces can't be measured by whether Ukrainian population were sympathetic to Russian cause (or lack there of). Yes, Russian leadership assumed that they would find some sympathetic voice in Ukraine once their forces are there, but that speaks to lack of awareness of how people can be fooled by decades of propaganda. Younger generation (one that has been raised by social media) - whether in US, EU, India, Ukraine, Russia etc is very gullible and tend to believe everything they see on TV and SM.

Back to Military, they got the orders to go to Kiev. They did. They camped there for more than a month. If Indian forces reached Islamabad in 24 hrs and camped there for a month.. I wouldn't call it a failure of Indian forces. Can we force Pakistani to like us when we are there? That has more to do with peoples' emotions and that was the misread on Russians' part.

If you think Russia's supreme leader is bad.. then you have no idea about Supreme leader here in US. A mumbling bumbling idiot squandering the USD's reserve currency status.. he thinks solution for fixing inflation is spending more money.. via more deficit.

[John]

Back to Military, they got the orders to go to Kiev. They did. They camped there for more than a month. If Indian forces reached Islamabad in 24 hrs and camped there for a month.. I wouldn't call it a failure of Indian forces. Can we force Pakistani to like us when we are there? That has more to do with peoples' emotions and that was the misread on Russians' part.

But Ukraine didn't really defend the northern or southern border. If they done that and Russian forces had broke thru those lines it would be one thing.

But in the north Russian forces didn't face fighting till they got to Hostomel airport which is where most of the heavy early fighting happened and after that progress slowed down a great deal. As you suggesting there is no "camping" out they been trying to break thru the lines with heavy casualties. I would consider the inability to break thru the defensive lines a failure.

[yogeshkumar]

Back to Military, they got the orders to go to Kiev. They did. They camped there for more than a month. If Indian forces reached Islamabad in 24 hrs and camped there for a month.. I wouldn't call it a failure of Indian forces. Can we force Pakistani to like us when we are there? That has more to do with peoples' emotions and that was the misread on Russians' part.

But Ukraine didn't really defend the northern or southern border. If they done that and Russian forces had broke thru those lines it would be one thing.

But in the north Russian forces didn't face fighting till they got to Hostomel airport which is where most of the heavy early fighting happened and after that progress slowed down a great deal. As you suggesting there is no "camping" out they been trying to break thru the lines with heavy casualties. I would consider the inability to break thru the defensive lines a failure.

With all due respect, I disagree. Where the Russian forces have been for a month (24-30 kms from Kiev city center).. most of the middle ground is suburbs of Kiev. So while we can argue whether Russian forces encountered any resistance until they reached there.. there is no further they could have gone without causing significant civilian causalities. And say what one wants.. Russian forces kept the civilian casualties in Kiev area to very minimal (compared to What US forces had in Baghdad and Falluza). And they did stay on those edges of Kiev for more than a month.

Mariupol is different story, there they had clear orders to take control of city center, no matter what. And that's where best of UKraine's army is (was) deployed. While it was no no walk in park.. Russia did manage to control most of Mariupol.

[John]

With all due respect, I disagree. Where the Russian forces have been for a month (24-30 kms from Kiev city center).. most of the middle ground is suburbs of Kiev. So while we can argue whether Russian forces encountered any resistance until they reached there.. there is no further they could have gone without causing significant civilian causalities. And say what one wants.. Russian forces kept the civilian casualties in Kiev area to very minimal (compared to What US forces had in Baghdad and Falluza). And they did stay on those edges of Kiev for more than a month.

Mariupol is different story, there they had clear orders to take control of city center, no matter what. And that's where best of UKraine's army is (was) deployed. While it was no no walk in park.. Russia did manage to control most of Mariupol.

So you are saying Russians didn't advance since they wanted to keep civilian casualties minimal which makes no sense since they never got to Kyiv. All the fighting happened in Irpin western suburb and Brovary eastern suburb, they needed to take those areas. Irpin has seen some of highest civilian casualties after Mariupol.

[Pratyush]

John,

In a way you are agreeing with what yogesh is saying. You are approaching the matter from the opposite direction.

If Russia has fought in Mariopol and Irpin. With those cities showing highest civilian casualties. Then it stands to reason that the Russians did not enter Kiev because they wanted to avoid civilian casualties.

Remember, that the Russians started this conflict to de nazify Ukraine. With a belief that under 2%of population was holding the rest of the population hostage.

Whether the belief it self was justified or not is open to debate.

[ks_sachin]

And they did stay on those edges of Kiev for more than a month..

What was the objective of this in your opinion?