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Cyrano wrote:
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I seriously doubt if elenskiy (since Z is to be dropped now) will survive this war irrespective of the outcome. When the full truth comes out he won't be a hero.
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elenskiy
I agree with most of the points except above. US has too much invested in elenskyy to dump him. He is ganja for the masses, gets standing ovations from cultivated idiots. The Russians have a use for him as well - someone legit has to sign on the agreements after getting their b**** squeezed.
elenskyy will continue in the periphery giving talks, making money as he has.
Russian sources have confirmed the strike. Its the 2nd attack on Belgorod (an ammo dump was hit on Wed).
They also attempted an evacuation by helicopter, of people trapped in the Mariupol pocket. 4 helis were involved. Its not clear if more than
1 was shot down (shot down on the return leg). Russia has publicized the wreckage of 1 Mi-8 with 2 survivors.
For helicopters to fly a long distance, across hostile airspace, to hit a target / evacuate high value people, suggests an amazing level of ineptitude by Russian air defenses. They have AWACs, fighters flying combat air patrols and their regular army units have good AA capability.
Russian sources have confirmed the strike. Its the 2nd attack on Belgorod (an ammo dump was hit on Wed).
They also attempted an evacuation by helicopter, of people trapped in the Mariupol pocket. 4 helis were involved. Its not clear if more than
1 was shot down (shot down on the return leg). Russia has publicized the wreckage of 1 Mi-8 with 2 survivors.
For helicopters to fly a long distance, across hostile airspace, to hit a target / evacuate high value people, suggests an amazing level of ineptitude by Russian air defenses. They have AWACs, fighters flying combat air patrols and their regular army units have good AA capability.
Ukraine has moved into some kind of Russian trap here. In my view it will help Putin justify legitimacy of the war within Russia. Thats all that he needs. Some national motivation. I think Russians might have engineered this probably.
Apart from these 2 helicopter missions, there are various indicators that the Russians have displayed a lack of competence in the conduct of operations.
- The loss of several Generals.
- High level of tank breakdowns / tanks being abandoned.
- Kherson airport was hit thrice. Russians suffered in all 3 strikes (the last apparently killing a general).
- Even when the Russians break through Ukie defenses, they are not able to exploit.
I think their apparent success in Syria and to some extent in Donbass / Crimea earlier, made them complacent and they assumed the army in general will display the same level of ability as the forces handpicked for Syria/ Donbass.
YashG wrote:
Ukraine has moved into some kind of Russian trap here. In my view it will help Putin justify legitimacy of the war within Russia. Thats all that he needs. Some national motivation. I think Russians might have engineered this probably.
I don't know if its a Russian trap, but I would certainly expect to see a higher level of Russian air attacks across Ukraine. That can only be a bad
outcome for Ukraine.
Also, paradoxically, the longer the war continues, the more the average Russian believes they are fighting NATO by proxy and they haven't effed up a `simple military operation against Ukraine'. I'm going by comments by Russians on Youtube videos of popular channels.
Last edited by Deans on 01 Apr 2022 18:26, edited 1 time in total.
Russian sources have confirmed the strike. Its the 2nd attack on Belgorod (an ammo dump was hit on Wed).
It seems that first attack on ammo dump was also done by Ukr airstrike now per Russia. Originally Russia said it was due to improper ammo handling.
Ukr is claiming the ammo dump attack also took out the large temp base where Russian forces where gathering. Older SAT images do show large base by ammo dump. Not able to get any recent Sat image to confirm that.
Here is video of Ukr helos in most recent attack on oil tanks. Overall not a big loss the tanks hold about 2000 cubic meter in 2x8 tanks.
YashG wrote:
Ukraine has moved into some kind of Russian trap here. In my view it will help Putin justify legitimacy of the war within Russia. Thats all that he needs. Some national motivation. I think Russians might have engineered this probably.
I don't know if its a Russian trap, but I would certainly expect to see a higher level of Russian air attacks across Ukraine. That can only be a bad
outcome for Ukraine.
Also, paradoxically, the longer the war continues, the more the average Russian believes they are fighting NATO by proxy and they haven't effed up a `simple military operation against Ukraine'. I'm going by comments by Russians on youtube video's of popular channels.
If Russia can fix the internal narrative inside their country, they will be in a good place. Since Russia is a next exporter, its means thr economy is relatively insulated. I think time is against Ukraine because the emotional support outpour for Ukraine will also get normalised. Zelensky cant run this as a television & marketing show.
Wars take time... using daily events to conclude a side is winning or losing is fraught with error. While a single event can change the course of a war, its also an extremely rare event often identified as game changing much later, with hindsight.
From what I've seen as "evidence" posted as images and videos on SM, there are numerous NATO operatives from US, UK, FR involved in combat areas in Ukraine as advisors/experts/SF fighters. During the attempt to evacuate these NATO operatives, 2 helis were shot down near Mariupol leading to over a dozen deaths. Includes a few French DGSE Sr operatives. This is based on uniform patches etc collected from crash sites. Some bodies were recovered as well.
French "Direction des renseignements militaires" head Gen Éric Vidaud was sacked by Macron yesterday. One can look up if similar sackings happened in UK/US.
Todays counter attacks could be a frustrated NATO riposte for such losses since doing anything in Mariupol is now impossible.
Deans wrote:
Also, paradoxically, the longer the war continues, the more the average Russian believes they are fighting NATO by proxy and they haven't effed up a `simple military operation against Ukraine'.
Deans ji, is there anymore doubt on that ? This is clearly a Russia-NATO war in Ukraine.
Deans wrote:
Also, paradoxically, the longer the war continues, the more the average Russian believes they are fighting NATO by proxy and they haven't effed up a `simple military operation against Ukraine'.
Deans ji, is there anymore doubt on that ? This is clearly a Russia-NATO war in Ukraine.
We know that. Unlike China however, the average Russian is a lot more exposed to Western media and does not trust State run media. The 2 most
popular independent analysts in Russia have a larger following on Youtube than the combined subscription of the Russian TV channels.
^ It was discussed earlier and is 2nd attack on Belgorod, they hit an ammo depot (and a base?) 48 hrs ago. Belarus air base was targeted by Tochka few times.
John wrote:^ It was discussed earlier and is 2nd attack on Belgorod, they hit an ammo depot (and a base?) 48 hrs ago. Belarus air base was targeted by Tochka few times.
Also the scenes of damage (there was a video) at Millerovo (Rostov) that was alleged to have been caused by Tochka’s as well back a few weeks ago. This was in no way a first strike at such Russian targets (airfields , ammo, fuel etc)
Attack helicopters fly too low for medium or long range air defense systems to shoot them down. This is the job of point defenses and MANPADS protecting ammo or fuel stores.
The Ukrainians have indeed scored a spectacular hit. How much does it matter in the overall picture ? Far less than the huge media coverage its getting.
brar_w wrote:Attack helicopters fly too low for medium or long range air defense systems to shoot them down. This is the job of point defenses and MANPADS protecting ammo or fuel stores.
Trying to get some data on Tochka shot down by S-400 but really hard to serperate fact from fiction.
One thing I learned from this conflict is artillery when used with drones for spotting is deadly combination hitting units in urban areas with little collateral.
Russian sites also show that the Russian army has given up ground East and West of Kiev. I can understand some units moving to another sector of the front (not easy in practice) or moving back to refit and regroup. However, it does not mean hard won ground should be given up. There may not have been enough combat power to go on the offensive, but there should have been enough to hold a defensive position, when you have overwhelming artillery and air superiority. The Ukrainians have shorter lines of communication and can transfer forces to the Donbass, since the current positions of the Russian army represent less of a threat to Kiev.
The units around Kiev need Belorussian support. No longer sure that such support is as unequivocal and in the quantity needed. They may need to reduce the footprint.
Looking increasingly that the Russian ability to wage a long drawn war is in doubt.
Karan M wrote:Yeah looks like the High command just told them to withdraw and all the units withdrew post haste. Seems very rushed.
The vehicles that seem to have made thru to Belarus look to be in terrible shape looks like a good chunk got ambushed on the way out based on videos that are emerging. One video shows Ukrainian fighters in SUV chasing a Russian tank/apc convoy and setting up ambushes using their Stugna ATGM and they are helplessly picked off. There is no excuse for lack of air support or even troops dismounting to protect the convoy.
Lot is said about Javelin and NLAW but only one kill video of the former have emerged and NLAW has some videos as well but good portion of kills seem to be coming from RPG (rpg-29) and Stugna (Ukranian Anti tank missile).
ShivS wrote:The units around Kiev need Belorussian support. No longer sure that such support is as unequivocal and in the quantity needed..
How well trained and motivated is the Belorussian military? That might play into the calculus. Last thing you want is to flood a combat zone with thousands of troops and kit that can't pull its weight and just ends up being a drag on logistics, and other resources that they need for basic survival.
The FSB supposedly stole the funds meant to bribe the Ukranians, and so the rumors of senior FSB officials being arrested.
This ties in with a total Russian force of ~160,000 spread over multiple fronts. It seems to be clear that Russia was counting on the Ukranian forces laying down their arms and not fighting because of the bribe operation. Otherwise from a comparative perspective, why would they expect to takeover a country of 600,000 sq km and 44 million people with ~160,000 troops when even way back in 1968 the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact sent in 200,000 troops to subdue Czechoslovakia, a country which then had a population of <10 million and an area of ~125,000 sq km and was already part of the Soviet sphere. Not taking into account that Ukraine has been trained by NATO forces for the last 10 years. Even if the internal Russian objective was to capture only the eastern half of Ukraine, east of the Dneiper river, the total Russian force is far too small. It only makes sense if the bribe operation was a pivotal part of the total exercise. And when that did not materalize, Russian actions on the battlefield subsequently have been an improvisation.
Even if the internal Russian objective was to capture only the eastern half of Ukraine, east of the Dneiper river, the total Russian force is far too small. It only makes sense if the bribe operation was a pivotal part of the total exercise. And when that did not materalize, Russian actions on the battlefield subsequently have been an improvisation.
Russian forces could have pulled it off if they focused all that in east to start out with and had Belarus forces, amphibious forces and small amount held in north and south to hold Ukranian forces at bay. Now especially given the spring weather an eastern attack will be very expensive to pull well even if they can succeed. Already tons of images of tanks getting stuck in the mud in past 24 hrs in Donetsk.
Even if the internal Russian objective was to capture only the eastern half of Ukraine, east of the Dneiper river, the total Russian force is far too small. It only makes sense if the bribe operation was a pivotal part of the total exercise. And when that did not materalize, Russian actions on the battlefield subsequently have been an improvisation.
Russian forces could have pulled it off if they focused all that in east to start out with and had Belarus forces, amphibious forces and small amount held in north and south to hold Ukranian forces at bay. Now especially given the spring weather an eastern attack will be very expensive to pull well even if they can succeed. Already tons of images of tanks getting stuck in the mud in past 24 hrs in Donetsk.
Agree, if right from the very start, all the 120 + BTGs had concentrated on creating that land bridge between Crimea and the Donbass and an amphibious landing on Odessa, they probably would have succeeded. Kyiv should have been subject only to aerial attacks and the threat of a ground offensive by Belarussian and a small number of Russian special forces.
Ukr weaponised drone lab ... bunch of uni kids making them now but how soon before the biggies mass produce them... i suspect they are the next evolution of RPGs and hand grenades ideal for troublemakers https://youtu.be/mT5FKNQ2Fg8
Confusing tactics from Russia, why redeploy from kviy to east instead of adding fresh forces to increase punch? Retreat is never pretty and leads to losses. Mewnwhile it seems elensky fired 2 generals for treason. If this war drags on, he will lose TRPs as well!
The Russians see no further need to threaten Kiev.
They are almost done in Donetsk Luhansk Mariupol.
It’s difficult to believe that Russians are occupiers there. They are treated more like liberators by the local population. Apparently the Russians’ aim was to also destroy the Ukraine military. For all the destruction, the civilian death toll seems to be low.
The Pakistanis probably killed more people in an afternoon in Dhaka.
The horrendous dislocation internal displacement and refugee problem will likely be responsible for many more deaths than military ordinance.
^^^The BBC is not a reliable source. Ukr forces, particularly the Azov battalions have used ambulances, hospitals, schools and other public areas as staging, retreat and ammo/weapons storage areas. Mariupol residents were given ample time to evacuate.
