India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/indi ... 220401.htm
India, Russia hold talks in Delhi day after US warning
PTI-Edited By: Hemant Waje, April 01, 2022
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Friday held talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, a day after the United States warned of consequences for countries attempting to "circumvent" American sanctions against Moscow.
The high-level talks took place in the backdrop of indications that India could buy greater volumes of discounted Russian oil and both sides were keen on having a rouble-rupee arrangement for bilateral trade.After holding a series of meetings with Indian interlocutors, he also said that Washington would not like to see a "rapid" acceleration in India's import of energy and other commodities from Russia.
The proposed rupee-rouble payment system, if finalised, is likely to help the two long-standing strategic partners carry on with bilateral trade while avoiding the purview of Western sanctions on Russia.
People familiar with Lavrov's visit said earlier that the Indian side is likely to press for timely delivery of various military hardware as well as components of the S-400 missile systems by Russia.
Lavrov arrived in New Delhi on Thursday evening after concluding a two-day visit to China.
The Russian foreign minister is scheduled to call on Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his talks with Jaishankar.
Hours before the Russian foreign minister landed in India, US Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh cautioned that there will be consequences for countries actively attempting to "circumvent or backfill" American sanctions against Moscow.
.....
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/31/in ... s-ukraine/
India Makes the Most of the Great-Power Bidding War
India’s neutral stance on Ukraine means Washington, Moscow, and Beijing are all courting New Delhi.
Colm Quinn, MARCH 31, 2022
Lavrov Visits New Delhi
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov begins a two-day visit to New Delhi today as he seeks to keep India close amid a Western blockade of Russia’s economy. Lavrov’s visit comes the day after he met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in the Chinese city of Tunxi. Today’s trip is just the third outside the country for Lavrov since Russia launched its war in Ukraine.
Lavrov’s visit comes amid a flurry of diplomatic courtship for New Delhi: British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss arrives the same day as Lavrov, while in the last seven days, the country has played host to representatives from Mexico, Germany, and Greece—as well as a surprise visit from China’s Wang.
India’s neutral position on Ukraine has helped undermine the Biden administration’s efforts to unite the world in condemnation of Russia’s invasion, and it means that economic sanctions have largely come from only Western countries and U.S. allies Japan and South Korea. (FP’s Colum Lynch explored why the rest of the world has largely stayed on the sidelines in an in-depth report on Wednesday).
The United States has kept up its persuasion campaign, dispatching Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland to India last week, and following up by sending Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics Daleep Singh this week. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar over the phone on Wednesday.
If the Indian media’s reaction is any indication, there’s little domestic pressure for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to change its current tack. As Gerry Shih explores in the Washington Post, India’s popular talk shows and magazines have been mostly filled with “fire and fury directed toward the United States, portrayed as the culprit and instigator of yet another international conflagration.”
Michael Kugelman, an Asia expert at the Wilson Center and author of FP’s South Asia Brief, told me that even though it’s not surprising that India has taken this neutral stance, its considerably more of a gamble today considering the increased ties India has forged with Western nations.
And although historical ties with Russia dating back to the Soviet era go a long way in explaining India’s position, Kugelman said more pragmatic concerns are behind its current stance. “It really comes down to the issue of arms,” Kugelman said. “Up to 85 percent of its arms come from Russia, and that’s important not just because of the disproportionate level of dependence, but also the fact that India perceives immediate security threats emanating from both of its rivals, China and Pakistan, and Russian arms are used to help strengthen India’s capacity to deter those threats.”
India also knows that it can continue a neutral position on Russia because it’s such a key part of U.S. strategy on China. “Washington views India as one of its biggest strategic bets in Asia when it comes to countering the China threat,” Kugelman said. “That gives India leverage.”
..........
Gautam

[vijayk]

Can we bargain for Security council Permanent membership?

[Jay]

Can we bargain for Security council Permanent membership?

Second that. Let's not waste a crisis.

[Mort Walker]

Can we bargain for Security council Permanent membership?

It's not going to happen. Not by the US, Russia, China, and UQ. Maybe France will support, but most likely the US & UQ won't allow them to.

[Vips]

Even if US and UK agree about SC membership what about China vetoing the proposal for a P6? How is anybody going to overcome that challenge??

[Cyrano]

Need odd number, for India to get in, someone must go out or one more must come in.

[Cain Marko]

WA gyan and right on the button

US deputy NSA Daleep Singh is a bigger Indian than Kamala Harris.

Singh cunningly reminded India today that “Russia won’t defend India if China were to violate the Line of Actual Control.”

But sir, neither will the USA!

I think the larger point that's being made, and missed, is that... "The Russians won't help, and neither will we when the time comes"

[Pratyush]

I think that India strategic community is clear about what happens in case of PRC attack on India.

The solution is to be independent at least in terms of the munitions being employed. If not platforms.

The US not coming to Indian aid is an empty threat. Because Indian defense capacity is not compatible with US defence capacity.

What India needs to develop and integrate quickly is Indian ATGM with Apache. Denial of Hellfire is where the Americans have the greatest ability to harm Indian defense capacity.

Same is the case of development of Indian sonar boue for the P8 along with light anti ship missile on Romeo.

Once such capacity exists. The US threat becomes meaningless.

[Karan M]

I dont see any seriousness in the GOI towards an all out conflict with Pak or China, despite the multiple warnings from well intentioned supoorters. The funding shortfalls make it clear that Delhi feels a conflict can be managed with talky talk and Galwan level clashes. Clearly the stuff being fed to the top guys is divorced from reality and of things go south, latter (and we) will pay the price in termscof a nationalist Govt getting humiliated (and countless lives lost). The unelected babus will disappear into the woodwork.
Focus is on electoral victories and managing the internal discourse. Meanwhile, IAF, IA, IN all have huge glaring gaps in force preparedness and Delhi is busy making token announcements for PR. They just cancelled a bunch of AONs for buy Global, what was left unsaid is the AONs were mere approvals and not budgeted for anyhow. Makes for good social media hype though for tye MOD babus to show off.

And in the meantime, data on orders, preparedness (the generic kind which didnt affect operational cqpacity) is also being scrubbed from all GOI portals so a hostile media doesnt ask inconvenient questions.

Managing perception seems to be more important then actually expanding the budget and investing in technology or defence or any of the key growth areas that would impact local industry and Indias actual profile as a technology importer.

Sadly we've become a govt owned by and led by bureaucrats and they are doing what they've done best all this while. Which is to ensure we trundle along with no focus or speed while patting ourselves on our back about efficiency and what not.

[chetak]

WA gyan and right on the button

I think the larger point that's being made, and missed, is that... "The Russians won't help, and neither will we when the time comes"

daleep singh is brown and uncultured

junior and if need be, can be chastised publicly

age old good cop, bad cop routine

hard to believe that any diplomat could be this crass and abrasive on purpose

[rsingh]

Can we bargain for Security council Permanent membership?

Second that. Let's not waste a crisis.

Nobody is going to allow that. There has to be some other structure that replaces SC. Let's wait for the outcome of current war.

[Vidur]

I dont see any seriousness in the GOI towards an all out conflict with Pak or China, despite the multiple warnings from well intentioned supoorters. The funding shortfalls make it clear that Delhi feels a conflict can be managed with talky talk and Galwan level clashes. Clearly the stuff being fed to the top guys is divorced from reality and of things go south, latter (and we) will pay the price in termscof a nationalist Govt getting humiliated (and countless lives lost). The unelected babus will disappear into the woodwork.
Focus is on electoral victories and managing the internal discourse. Meanwhile, IAF, IA, IN all have huge glaring gaps in force preparedness and Delhi is busy making token announcements for PR. They just cancelled a bunch of AONs for buy Global, what was left unsaid is the AONs were mere approvals and not budgeted for anyhow. Makes for good social media hype though for tye MOD babus to show off.

And in the meantime, data on orders, preparedness (the generic kind which didnt affect operational cqpacity) is also being scrubbed from all GOI portals so a hostile media doesnt ask inconvenient questions.

Managing perception seems to be more important then actually expanding the budget and investing in technology or defence or any of the key growth areas that would impact local industry and Indias actual profile as a technology importer.

Sadly we've become a govt owned by and led by bureaucrats and they are doing what they've done best all this while. Which is to ensure we trundle along with no focus or speed while patting ourselves on our back about efficiency and what not.

Don't disagree with what you say but will point out that military advice on operational stance and feasibility of war is given by military to the political leadership. NSA also has a big role to play. But the decision is always political. Government is empowered with a strong mandate. Even weak governments can dismiss advice and take decisions. There is defensiveness, risk aversion all around - political, military, bureaucratic.

[Cyrano]

Vidur ji,
Is our's a case of "the more you have, the more you fear losing" ?

Would we dare to be as decisive as Indira Gandhi in 1971 situation happened now?

[Vidur]

I would not like to comment on the ''why'' as it would become political but yes I don't expect any decisiveness. Response to internal security events from 2019 December are a clear pointer.

[Zynda]

Vidur, if needed, the discussion can be moved to political thread but it would be nice to get your view point on the why part especially if the indecisiveness started in 2nd term of this administration.

[Karan M]

I would not like to comment on the ''why'' as it would become political but yes I don't expect any decisiveness. Response to internal security events from 2019 December are a clear pointer.

Yes sir, the buck stops at the top, blaming bureaucracy alone is not the whole picture, I have to admit that. We (including I) voted for a decisive administration which could and would invest in a strong India, technologically and industrially, but it's not an administrative priority, looks like.

[vera_k]

Need odd number, for India to get in, someone must go out or one more must come in.

Obviously both India and Pakistan should get in. If there are 3 European countries, makes sense there should be 3 Asian countries. The Security Council won't be any more or less effective than it is.

[Mort Walker]

I think the larger point that's being made, and missed, is that... "The Russians won't help, and neither will we when the time comes"

daleep singh is brown and uncultured

junior and if need be, can be chastised publicly

age old good cop, bad cop routine

hard to believe that any diplomat could be this crass and abrasive on purpose

The dude is brainwashed by the Democratic Party. Even Uncle Tom characters like Nikki Haley and Booby Jindal would have been more diplomatic.

[g.sarkar]

WA gyan and right on the button

I think the larger point that's being made, and missed, is that... "The Russians won't help, and neither will we when the time comes"

The US may help, if requested, with arms and equipment. That will have to be then paid for. No free ka maal. Even in WWII, Amreeka helped by sending arms to Europe/USSR. It sent in soldiers only after victory was certain. Even in case of Taiwan, I can not imagine US boots on the ground fighting the Chinese.
Gautam

[Mort Walker]

The US will not help. This is the same US government only one year back in Feb. 2021 invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) to deny India critical vaccine making materials. I think Suraj here can document that as well as others.

[Cyrano]

Any video link to where Daleep made those statements?

[kit]

I think the larger point that's being made, and missed, is that... "The Russians won't help, and neither will we when the time comes"

The US may help, if requested, with arms and equipment.

I think the word is opportunistic. You dont need a "treaty" or "ally" for that matter

Isnt that whats happening in Uke anyway ?

[Mort Walker]

Any video link to where Daleep made those statements?

Another link see at 5:25:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/health/watch/ ... vp-AAVIwCP

He comes across as quite arrogant. I can't wait to vote these arseholes out of office.

[bala]

The US has a fair share of idiots who think they are super duper smart, but my experience has shown how shallow they are and how idiotic they really are. These Johnny come lately types have a chip on their shoulder and have to show how super duper they are at their current job. It is no wonder these types who are loudest get propped up in the media. Make no mistake the Deep State is in charge of the US and they are a ruthless scheming bunch, but they love the useful idiot barking loudly, so that their deep moves are all camouflaged and covered up adequately. A bunch of Brown Sahibs want to be MUTU and bark loudly in the media, Daleep boy is one of them. I have also noticed that the MSM encourages a disrespectful attitude towards India, just look at liberal media, there are always an another abusive write up on India or article showing India in bad light, the deep state is mostly behind this outlook. China would have none of it and at the earliest they tell them to buzz of or shut the F' up. India is more sanguine and timid.

[rsingh]

Again, being deputy NSA he had access to confidential material on GOI, MoD , MEA and different mattress. According to that report Indians will be tamed by mentioning of LAC and China. No wonder they were routed in Afgsnistan. CIA jindabad.NSA is so much buried in ground ( to maintain secrecy) that it is out of touch of ground realty.oops I just hammered out a quotable quote..

[Vidur]

I have a fairly good idea of our capabilities, preparedness and also those of our adversaries. And most importantly the terrain. As of today we can hold our own just fine in any operational situation with China either alone or in collusion with Pakistan. Our supply chains are such that as munitions, spares etc get expended in combat they will naturally need to be replinished. If all our contractual commitments on equipment and component contracts with Russia, Israel, France and US are met and those channels remain open then there is absolutely no problem. Even if US reneges on its contractual commitments we can manage without any troubles.

If the US wants to sanction Bharat, they are welcome to go ahead. It will make us stronger and help us mentally decolonise.

[Rudradev]

What if US sanctions Bharat, China attacks, and then Russia (under Beijing's pressure) refuses to honour its contractual commitments on supplying equipment & components to India?

I see this as very much possible, considering how hopelessly dependent Russia is becoming on China, especially given international sanctions and Moscow's apparent inability to bring the Ukraine war to a timely & favourable conclusion.

How long will we able to hold out against China in that situation? With no meaningful MIC of our own, we'll be completely reliant on Israel and France as suppliers (IF they decide to defy US sanctions on India, which they may not).

Remember also that a brutal, decisive, humiliating defeat of India by China (or worse yet, China + Pakistan) would pose a grave threat to continued popular support of Modi sarkar.

Which is one outcome that China, the US, Canada, the UK, and much of the EU would all like to see.

[Karan M]

I have a fairly good idea of our capabilities, preparedness and also those of our adversaries. And most importantly the terrain. As of today we can hold our own just fine in any operational situation with China either alone or in collusion with Pakistan. Our supply chains are such that as munitions, spares etc get expended in combat they will naturally need to be replinished. If all our contractual commitments on equipment and component contracts with Russia, Israel, France and US are met and those channels remain open then there is absolutely no problem. Even if US reneges on its contractual commitments we can manage without any troubles.

If the US wants to sanction Bharat, they are welcome to go ahead. It will make us stronger and help us mentally decolonise.

Sir if you are basing your assessment in part off of what's been posted on that twitter thread postulating an Indo Pak matchup all I will say is it was very optimistic and things, would likely not work out that way in a, real conflict. I have the deepest respect for the author and his professional assessment but things have moved pretty rapidly in the past few years.

Plus please do a neutral assessment of where China is today and the trend and you will quickly see we are already way behind and falling further behind every day.

Let me just bring the IAF to the table. We are at around 30 squadrons today. Assuming even a 70% sustained serviceability, a very high number, we can barely bring 21 squadrons to the fight against Pak or China. Let alone both. Add attrition thanks to our relative paucity of high end munitions unlike the Western AF and that means low level attacks will occur as will dumb bomb ones, and our vulnerability to high end SAM systems will rise by a huge amount. The sheer disinterest in arming the IAF is also evident from the fact we have a, mere 5 AEW&CS to face a two front threat. Around double that number are present with Pak alone, more than that with China. We lack IFR beyond 6 over stressed assets. In short the number of either us not enough to run sustained ops over two sectors let alone entire borders. For instance it takes three AEW&CS to maintain constant coverage over one sector without even considering mechanical failure or attrition. Now consider what a joke a five strong fleet is for our requirements and the follow on DRDO program for 6 platforms is also limited and further away given the program was launched so late. We don't show any seriousness in either imports or domestic replacement either. Our 6 IFR fleet is barely enough to run a few sector level ops. Now add serviceability to the mix.

The sheer nonchalance with which the budget shortfall has been taken is visible by the fact that years after induction, the DRDO EW suite for the MiG-29s was just ordered. We couldn't afford it despite the fact it was ready a couple of years back itself and the manufacturer was awaiting orders. No country would send its premier AD fighters up without EW. We did so, for years on end because we couldn't ge bothered to find 1400 Cr for saving assets and lives far more valuable.

Even now the Su-30 upgrade hasn't been progressed. The bulk of our fleet is at best parity with PRC gear and in the conservative case, has fallen behind their newer inductions (easily a hundred plus). Neither the GOI nor the IAF saw it fit to progress the indigenous radar upgrade with any seriousness. Uttam, an AESA radar developed on a shoestring budget by DRDO, which is then mocked for delays, is yet to be developed further for the Su30, IAF says they may think of it. In any other country such a shambolic treatment of its own R&D capability would be grounds for a thorough overhaul. Here, we are still talky talk with no firm road map or orders placed.

Plus, sadly, this Govt doesn't seem to want to spend a dime extra on hitech of any sort beyond re-juggling already scarce budgets between public and pvt sectors. Where is the jet engine program to reaplace the GE engines on the Tejas? Till they aren't reached, the IAF will remain wary of dependence on a fighter that can be grounded at Washingtons diktat.

The mere 36 Rafales are literally a drop in the bucket vs the PLAAF and PAF fighter fleet and highly vulnerable to decapitation strikes given only 2 AFB can handle them. If we miraculously save the airframes, precision CM/BM attacks will devastate the support infra. We neither funded the DRDO BMD system in time to accelerate it, nor did we purchase enough S400s. A mere 5 cannot protect us against both air and missile attacks.

Add to this the delay in placing Tejas orders, again budgetary indicating GOI disinterest. The line will be idle, IAF will receive trickle feed inductions till ramp up. No clear orders for Mk2 either.

And we are relying on five squadrons of Jaguars for which we are already running behind countries to get already hard to find spares.

This is the state of affairs after electing a nationalist Govt.

Limited interest in hard power beyond doing the basics like filling ammo reserves and streamlining processes. Our top talent has been put in the social justice programs whereas the programs that accelerate national growth like technology development are ignored. Without the latter, there will be no former. One can't run on services, taxing the middle class or the PLI type schemes alone. We are critically dependent on tech from abroad and wont even back the winners like DRDO's missile, sensor complex or fix the gaps (propulsion, metallurgy) or semiconductors (IISCs mere Rs 2.5K GaN proposal has been kicked down the road to the new ISEM plan). We seem to think the Govt only exists for facilitating trade/business/dhandho and running social service. More pragmatic Govts like France/Israel fund their MIC and derive industry/society wide benefits from exporting denied items like thermal imaging detectors (state funded R&D available to domestic suppliers alone).

Since we are already in plain speaking mode, let me bring in the Army - most Indian tanks lack the ammunition to face off against higher end PRC gear. Its to our limited advantage the terrain prevents them from bringing their armor superiority to bear vs the bulk of our fleet, the obsolete T-72s. Their armor is weak, their guns obsolete.

Even against Pakistan they'd struggle against the T-80U, Al Khalid and the new MBT they just imported. Yes Chinese gear is usually of lower reliability etc but to count on that to always be the case is unwise (from our perspective).

We've fallen behind in loitering ammunition and advanced ATGMs too while the IA wasted everyone's time forcing the Nag through hoop after hoop ignoring its potential in the NE sector where ambient temperatures wouldn't stress its advanced seeker.

When it comes to AD, we've been desperate to even import VSHORADS and thanks to our broken processes were only willing to import the obsolete Igla S which the Russians are dropping. Merely because otherwise we'd have to retender.

Our procurement process mitigating against single vendor deals is totally broken. Nor are the services able to stipulate truly functional or modern requirements. The Ukrainians fighting the Russians today have better anti tank, anti aircraft gear in several cases, than we do. What's hilarious is domestic gear is stuck in endless trials whole we spend all our budget on emergency imports and GOI moves those amounts to the next fiscal, limiting Capex even more.

In artillery, the Pakistanis actually outmatch us in SPHs after picking up hand me down Italian units. We as usual penny pinched and bought a, mere 100 K9s and have acted as if we've arrived. The less said about the rest the better. In tube artillery, the ATAGS saga needs no elaboration.

The services have become adept at setting PSQRs which set off DRDO and its partners on a wild goose chase then to set GSQRs which were different enough to add years to the program and then ask for imports as stop gap measure. Now it's supposedly being changed but even so the legacy programs continue to be moneyed around with. No pvt firm would put up with the abuse DRDO has suffered and the DPSUs bar BEL, HAL don't even have significant R&D budgets or leeway to spend on it, focused as they are on returning dividends to the GOI.

I'll put just one last number here because its food for thought. In 2019, PLAAF had 600 4th gen fighters (IAF today has around 420). By 2021, US Intel estimated the number was 800-1100. Let's just think on that a minute. These are advanced fighters alone. Not IFR, nor sensors, nor EW. If we don't want to bankrupt ourselves and merely wish to deter, we have to wake up and fix our gaps. Now please consider how ridiculous our tom tomming about 36 Rafales appeared to such an adversary. And the only saving grace is China's focus on SCS. But they are now creating the infra to reposition their assets double quick. Here, thanks to budget shortfalls, IAF was struggling to build HAS.

Either ways we've fallen significantly behind the combined firepower of our adversaries and sooner or later, they may well choose to risk a conflict despite the damage they'd take from us in the process.

We have a long list there which I spent considerable time figuring out. The answers are also there but GOI seems to have no interest in pursuing straightforward answers.

We need to accelerate our domestic programs (would cost relative peanuts) and order existing gear on a priority basis. But it seems tokenism is the order of the day especially at the forces procurement level itself (buy a few hundred fancy items and consider it enough). Whereas it isn't.

I could go into more detail about our vulnerabilities but would prefer not to, on an open forum. I could mail you the details offline if you prefer. Either ways, IMHO, the situation has long become one of the gravest urgency.

[rsingh]

Basics are:
Even after war Russia needs India.
India cN trust Russia.
Russia will try to pacify China
We can take on China ( economy and military
UsS and West needs Indi East Asia and IOR.
Japan need India for future investments for Japanese companies.Arabic world need India
African countries will make beeline behind China and India.
India is a hated by many countries but most of these countries need India.
I cN give point by point explanation. Salam

[chetak]

What if US sanctions Bharat, China attacks, and then Russia (under Beijing's pressure) refuses to honour its contractual commitments on supplying equipment & components to India?

I see this as very much possible, considering how hopelessly dependent Russia is becoming on China, especially given international sanctions and Moscow's apparent inability to bring the Ukraine war to a timely & favourable conclusion.

How long will we able to hold out against China in that situation? With no meaningful MIC of our own, we'll be completely reliant on Israel and France as suppliers (IF they decide to defy US sanctions on India, which they may not).

Remember also that a brutal, decisive, humiliating defeat of India by China (or worse yet, China + Pakistan) would pose a grave threat to continued popular support of Modi sarkar.

Which is one outcome that China, the US, Canada, the UK, and much of the EU would all like to see.

AGNI

it's what scares the piss out of xi and the CCP.

When dealing with a nuclear armed rival, ukraine has shown the reality of what all these sabre rattlers fear the most and that fear has been cruelly exposed by the tucked tail response of NATO and the US.

The battle hardened IA of today is not going to be a pushover as the cheeni well know, no matter what the global times military experts' think. The inevitable Indian blockade of the malacca straits by the IN will be a humiliating slap to the cheeni "face". The IAF dimension which was, inexplicably and also spinelessly, not brought into play in 1962 will now be a major fulcrum and an integral part of the response. The CDS structures now in place have added to the cheeni list of major headaches

The entire stalemate situation on the LAC that is now staring the PLA in the face has split the cheeni establishment vertically with one side of the cheeni fearing the AGNI response if red lines are crossed.

The repeat of the 1962 option was never again open to the cheeni. At the time, India was led by a cabal of traitorous scum and commie degenerates, both in and out of uniform.

where the cheeni still hold the decisive upper hand is in the vital media and cyber warfare space

[Najunamar]

US establishment might want to impose sanctions but I still believe the general populace will be very much behind India (similar to the Nixon days when the best efforts of Kissinger were to be to nought because of the US people support)

[Vidur]

Karan, I am basing my assessment on my knowledge gained from direct experience of some these matters not on one individual's assessment. I agree with you that China vs us gap is widening every few months. Situation in April 2022 is worse than April 2020 but today we can still manage if we are bold in tactics, aggressive and innoavtive. In a couple of years the gap will be too high. Equipment is important but much more important is the political and military will to fight as per military logic. Even if you equip fully the enemy can still mentally paralyse you and ensure you don't use your strength. I am more concerned about that. Thats why I indicated internal security handling to show indecisiveness. Sab ka vishwas. I leave it at that.

[Cyrano]

Thanks for the links, the second one worked for me.
At 5:30 he clearly says:

[b]"the sanctions we are doing with 30 other countries across the world are meant to degrade and disable Russia's military capability not just in Ukraine but to export defensive assistance to other countries"[/b]

He comes and says this in India which has 1000s of Russian tanks, 100s of planes, various missile systems, munitions, radars, S400s, boats, subs..., and the whole generations of soldiers and officers trained on them and experienced in using them effectively in combat.... impossible to replace even in a decade or two, and for which different levels of spares and munitions and upgrades will be required every year to maintain and effective military force.

[b][color=#FF0000]Daleep Singh has effectively made the US regime and it's allies the N°1 security risk for India.
[/color][/b]
Add to this, total lack of understanding and empathy but lots of woke entitled attitude comes out when he speaks about the impact of sanctions on Russian and every other people. His career as diplomat is toast.

[Pratyush]

Daleep Singh, is not a diplomat. His mission should not be seen from the diplomatic prism.

The US deep state is determined to crush Russia and have be determined to do so for the last several decades.

They actually don care, if, a defeated Russia becomes a PRC puppet. They seem to be discounting this reality.

The psychotic nature of US establishment is already manifesting it self in various movements in India holding back our industrial development and growth.

This is a state that only responds to overwhelming might like shown by PRC.

The moment we slip we will be devoured by the predatory western system.

I am coming round to the conclusion that once the US is done and dusted with Russia. India will be offered as a sacrificial lamb to the PRC for the upcoming G2.

[Pratyush]

Has Eric Garceti actually been confirmed as an ambassador to India?

[Rudradev]

What if US sanctions Bharat, China attacks, and then Russia (under Beijing's pressure) refuses to honour its contractual commitments on supplying equipment & components to India?

I see this as very much possible, considering how hopelessly dependent Russia is becoming on China, especially given international sanctions and Moscow's apparent inability to bring the Ukraine war to a timely & favourable conclusion.

How long will we able to hold out against China in that situation? With no meaningful MIC of our own, we'll be completely reliant on Israel and France as suppliers (IF they decide to defy US sanctions on India, which they may not).

Remember also that a brutal, decisive, humiliating defeat of India by China (or worse yet, China + Pakistan) would pose a grave threat to continued popular support of Modi sarkar.

Which is one outcome that China, the US, Canada, the UK, and much of the EU would all like to see.

AGNI

it's what scares the piss out of xi and the CCP.

When dealing with a nuclear armed rival, ukraine has shown the reality of what all these sabre rattlers fear the most and that fear has been cruelly exposed by the tucked tail response of NATO and the US.

The battle hardened IA of today is not going to be a pushover as the cheeni well know, no matter what the global times military experts' think. The inevitable Indian blockade of the malacca straits by the IN will be a humiliating slap to the cheeni "face". The IAF dimension which was, inexplicably and also spinelessly, not brought into play in 1962 will now be a major fulcrum and an integral part of the response. The CDS structures now in place have added to the cheeni list of major headaches

The entire stalemate situation on the LAC that is now staring the PLA in the face has split the cheeni establishment vertically with one side of the cheeni fearing the AGNI response if red lines are crossed.

The repeat of the 1962 option was never again open to the cheeni. At the time, India was led by a cabal of traitorous scum and commie degenerates, both in and out of uniform.

where the cheeni still hold the decisive upper hand is in the vital media and cyber warfare space

In other words, your answer is escalation. India should escalate against a Chinese attack on LAC by retaliating in the Indian Ocean and as a last resort, nuclear posturing with Agni.

But how well would such an escalation go when we are under sanctions from the US bloc and the Kremlin isn't returning SJS's calls, let alone sending us spares or ammunition, because Xi has a gun to their head. (That is the scenario outlined in my post).

Not even the best trained and motivated armed forces can fight for long when equipment is stripped away by attrition, ammunition is exhausted, fuel is hard to secure, and nothing is being replaced by our suppliers. Add in the fact that in this scenario, our broader economy will also be reeling from multilateral sanctions by the West (unlike Putin, we won't have Xi to bail us out).

So yes, perhaps India's nuclear arsenal will be the first AND last deterrent against China if US sanctions India. But how effective a deterrent have India's nukes been against China's border actions since 2020? The Chinese seem to have calculated that we will never allow any response against border incursions to rise past the nuclear threshold.

[Cyrano]

Diploat or not his mission was to get India to do something its unwilling to do. Thats called diplomacy and he failed miserably at that and riled Indian people against his country.

[Pratyush]

I had stated earlier that at minimum India needs to be self sufficient in terms of munitions. If not the platforms with which to deploy them.

Karan and Vidur have had an educational back and forth to thrash out the issues and arrive at a consensus about the present capacity and future requirements.

Having said all that, we need to start thinking in terms of building the following capacity in terms of munitions.

1) ATGM( full family, short range, medium range, long range and NLOS) 15 to 20 k per annum.
2) LGB, GPS Guided, glide bombs. start producing these divices annual production of 15 to 20 k per annum.
3) Integrate the indigenous SAMs in an IADS. With seamless target hand off to different SAM types.
4) Air to air missiles WVR.
5) Develop industrial capacity to build a 1500 strong fighter force by 2045 to 50.
6) 200 major combat ship navy by the same time frame( 8 aircraft carriers, 16 heavy destroyers/ cruisers, 48 medium destroyers ( Delhi sized), 60 multi role frigates, 60 nuclear and conventional attack submarines , 8 fleet ballestic missile submarines, plus the assorted OPV, Corvettes, missile boats, etc.

What I am asking for is quite doable.

[Karan M]

Karan, I am basing my assessment on my knowledge gained from direct experience of some these matters not on one individual's assessment. I agree with you that China vs us gap is widening every few months. Situation in April 2022 is worse than April 2020 but today we can still manage if we are bold in tactics, aggressive and innoavtive. In a couple of years the gap will be too high. Equipment is important but much more important is the political and military will to fight as per military logic. Even if you equip fully the enemy can still mentally paralyse you and ensure you don't use your strength. I am more concerned about that. Thats why I indicated internal security handling to show indecisiveness. Sab ka vishwas. I leave it at that.

Sir, thanks I get your point and fair enough. I focused on the equipment bit to point out that no matter how brave the IA soldier is, the swing force will be our IAF as it can range far and deep. And today its at its weakest in decades in numbers of available platforms. As one AF officer mentioned when some unknown analyst mentioned a Su-30 was carrying more than several MiG-21s, that a single aircraft can only be in one place at one time. My point was we have got to the point that crippling missile strikes can force us on the defensive and also give the enemy a huge propaganda victory by attacking civilian, dual use infra with the likes of NDTV playing it up, giving the Govt a defeat on paper even if we on BR manage to discern we didn't lose vital territory or suffer crippling military reverses. In short we are totally unable to wage let alone win information Warfare. It's been seven years and this Govt seems to have had no interest in fixing this issue let alone making the AF a decisive force the kind that would make the Pakistanis and Chinese think twice before trying any stunt. Yet, we have ministers brag about taking back Pok, Aksai Chin. Where does that belief come from? How can they not understand that conflicts are serious.

The other aspects were to point out that thanks to our AFs HQs tendency to go for the best and shiniest, which are unaffordable and their lack of a product development mindset. We are seeing that with Tejas Mk2, current CAS wants to axe it and wants to go directly for AMCA without understanding the cost structure and supplier ecosystem for AMCA only comes via MK2. The end result is we end up with nothing or end up with tiny amounts of gold plated systems neither of which are enough for our massive needs. The whole mess has resulted in R&D/ DRDO having a very limited budget despite producing a ton of stuff, yet their/their partners in the pvt and MSME industries, progress is hampered by limited funds. From the industrial perspective, we have been falling further and further behind while we spend many times the entire Tejas program cost on a mere 36 Rafales. The GOI too seems not to understand that hard power comes from owning own tech which requires it to spend not just make policy changes, or reallocate limited funds amongst players.

The way we are falling behind across sectors, due to these systemic dysfunctions, is worrisome as 70% of our tank fleet is obsolete and there is no clear answer in place to fix it. Stuff like this is moving us towards how Iraq was vs the US, substantial numbers but its rounds were bouncing off of Abrams at close range while the latter were knocking off Republican Guard tanks at extreme range. Our token procurements of gold plated gear aren't enough to reverse the trend. Forget defense. The same issue is extant in almost all industrial and pharma sectors. No /limited focus on the future or to make India into a knowledge powerhouse. We seem to be only focused on transferring tax money to the public as sops for social justice etc.

Add to that the other issues in natsec you mentioned, I agree completely with you on that. I have been one of the rare few supporters who was very upset at what happened in Delhi during the Jan riots or even the CAA events and still am. The state was shown to be neutered. If the state can't defend itself what hope do I, an ordinary citizen have? We too can be sacrificed as the karyakartas in WB were, stating strategic reasons. If experienced hands like you are similarly dismayed, then I guess I shouldn't beat myself up over my angst either.

[Pratyush]

Diploat or not his mission was to get India to do something its unwilling to do. Thats called diplomacy and he failed miserably at that and riled Indian people against his country.

In the ultimate analysis, what he accomplished or how Indian public responded to him is meaningless.

What matters is what is India going to do about it. Because, if the western led economic order is allowed to continue as is. Then it has an absolute capacity to crush our strategic options.

I am disappointed that the finance minister has not taken this opportunity to come up with a plan to replace the western owned payment gateways in India in a time-bound manner.

I am disappointed that the petroleum minister has not taken any opportunity to open negotiations with OPEC to try and buy oil in Indian rupees. Start with 25 %, but make the start.

Unless India decides to stand for itself, it can kiss it's political and strategic independence goodbye. This is the bottom line.