Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[Baikul]

Usually in war you’d expect combatants to overstate claims of damage inflicted on the enemy, and understate their own. So why are both Ukraine and Russia doing the opposite in the case of the first time destruction of infrastructure inside Russia (Belgorod)?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60952125

The options are:

1. Ukraine has not carried out the strike. In that case it was (a) an accident at the oil depot as Ukraine claims

or (b) a false flag carried out by Russia. Why would Russia do this? To raise war fever and whip up even more anger/ resolve in its citizens and prepare them for a longer war?

To enable troop mobilisation in greater numbers as some internet theories go (unconfirmed but attack on Russian territory apparently legally enables the government to take more drastic mobilisation measures)? Please to pick your own conspiracy theory

2. Ukraine has carried out the strike and now is denying it. It would do that (a) to send a message to Russia but not escalate by denying it publicly or

(b) someone in Ukraine military acted unilaterally without the permission of the government.

Since it is being claimed as a helicopter strike, I personally find it amazing how a pair of Ukrainian helicopters managed to penetrate Russian airspace for 40 kilometres. And then returned to base (presumably since we haven’t had claims of them being shot down).

So many hypotheses!

….
Ukraine has been able to impose a very high cost on Russia at the expense of almost complete ruin of their own country. How that makes sense to Ukranians, I do not understand.

I’d say this is a popular war for the Ukrainians and in war nothing else seems to matter. How much would we be willing to sacrifice if Chinese troops came boiling down the Himalayas?

[yogeshkumar]

I’d say this is a popular war for the Ukrainians and in war nothing else seems to matter. How much would we be willing to sacrifice if Chinese troops came boiling down the Himalayas?

Better analogy would be if Nepal were to get into a Military alliance with China.. allowing China to place Nukes right inside Nepal on indian border and letting Chinese military take positions in Nepal.. as part of an alliance whose sole purpose is anti-India.

India may assume that Nepalese are our brethren.. and hardcore minority Maoist politicians are the ones selling out to Chinese CCP. Then if India invades Nepal to get rid of this Maoist government, assuming Nepalese would support India's campaign there.

That's whats happening here. Nepal knows that getting into bed with China will not go well with India. And will not go well at all if Nepal does military alliances meant to target India.

In this analogy, Nepal is Ukraine. And China is NATO (basically US/UK).

[Baikul]

I’d say this is a popular war for the Ukrainians and in war nothing else seems to matter. How much would we be willing to sacrifice if Chinese troops came boiling down the Himalayas?

Better analogy would be if Nepal were to get into a Military alliance with China.. allowing China to place Nukes right inside Nepal on indian border and letting Chinese military take positions in Nepal.. as part of an alliance whose sole purpose is anti-India.

India may assume that Nepalese are our brethren.. and hardcore minority Maoist politicians are the ones selling out to Chinese CCP. Then if India invades Nepal to get rid of this Maoist government, assuming Nepalese would support India's campaign there.

That's whats happening here. Nepal knows that getting into bed with China will not go well with India. And will not go well at all if Nepal does military alliances meant to target India.

In this analogy, Nepal is Ukraine. And China is NATO (basically US/UK).

You’re greatly overanalysing this. My comment was a response to the OP who seemed to wonder why Ukrainians were willing to risk the ruin of their country to fight.

My answer was that Ukrainians seems to consider this a popular war and therefore nothing else seems to matter to them but repelling the Russians. Regardless of cost. Just like IMO the cost of victory would matter little to Indians if the Chinese were to invade us in depth.

Geopolitical comparisons about Nepal = Ukraine etc aren’t relevant to my point.

[Baikul]

As expected action is shifting to the east / Donbas

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... re-in-live

At the 4.27 mark in the live commentary it says:

Reuters: The United States will work with allies to transfer Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine to bolster its defences in the Donbas region, the New York Times reported on Friday, citing a US official.

And

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said the military situation in the country’s east remained extremely difficult. He repeated warnings that Russia was preparing for strikes in the Donbas region and Kharkiv. In a video address late on Friday, he said Russian troops in the north of the country were slowly pulling back.

Speculative comment - 9 May (8 May in some places) os an iconic date for Russia (Victory Day, German surrender in WWII). Putin will probably want something concrete by then maybe as a propaganda win?

[yogeshkumar]

My answer was that Ukrainians seems to consider this a popular war and therefore nothing else seems to matter to them but repelling the Russians. Regardless of cost. Just like IMO the cost of victory would matter little to Indians if the Chinese were to invade us in depth.

Who has polled all Ukrainians on this? or is that what Lame Stream media has been parroting? War is not as popular in Ukraine as above point seems to make it. Most in East are still in the middle and want War to end now. Western Ukraine is another story.

[Baikul]

My answer was that Ukrainians seems to consider this a popular war and therefore nothing else seems to matter to them but repelling the Russians. Regardless of cost. Just like IMO the cost of victory would matter little to Indians if the Chinese were to invade us in depth.

Who has polled all Ukrainians on this? or is that what Lame Stream media has been parroting? War is not as popular in Ukraine as your point seems to make it. Most in East are still in the middle and want War to end now. Western Ukraine is another story.

Story that includes a poll.

https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-t ... ave-surged

Link to actual poll itself (Ukrainian language:

https://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine ... _goda.html

Translated:

According to the results of the survey conducted by the Sociological group "Rating", 70% of respondents are convinced that Ukraine will be able to beat off the attacks of the Russian invaders, 16% are not convinced. The level of confidence in the Armed Forces has risen dramatically over the past week. None of the regions shows prevailing pessimistic attitudes. The highest level of confidence in the Armed Forces is in the West and in the Center (75-78%). Relatively lower - in the Pivdniy and Nahodni (64-66%).
- 91% of Ukrainians support the actions of President Zelensky. They do not support his actions - 6%, 3% could not answer. It is important that since December 2021 the support for the actions of the President of Ukraine has increased threefold.

And who the pollsters are in case anyone wants to question their credentials.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rating_(s ... cal_group)

Edit - for some reason clicking on the link only works after you click again on the wiki page. But copying and pasting directly on your browser takes you there as well.

One can always have question and quibbles on anything and question anyone. But data shows some pretty clear trends.

[Cyrano]

The choice for Ukrainians since 3 decades has been getting under the Russian umbrella or that of the west. They emerged well endowed from the debris of USSR, with enough natural resources, industries a favourable geographic position with access to sea, plus a dynamic well educated population to take advantage of all of that and prosper. West promises freedom, access to markets, integration into a globalised world, billions of aid if they start the process of getting into EU etc and of course full immersion into the hyper-marketed western lifestyle. Ukraine could have really transformed in another 10-15 years.

Russian umbrella may eventually get them the same economic result - because Russia itself is more than half way to being a market economy - but would take a generation longer, and will still lack the democratic institutions and social care that make people's lives easier. It would also be fraught with risk because no one knows what will happen during or especially after Putin.

The path Ukranians chose was the right one, the West. The historic blunder they made was equating the west with warmongering US and NATO instead of mercantile EU. To make things worse they stoked ethnic divide in their own country and goaded and funded by the US, weaponised it against Russia. WTF were they thinking? May be they were blinded by the CIA propaganda and slush of funds during 2014 Maidan revolution and completely lost their head. They also ignored the warning shots fired by Russia when they took over Crimea and even when their own eastern republics started breaking away as LPR and DPR.

Europe has much to blame for this, Germany & France were co-signatories of Minsk accords I and II in 2014 and 2015 but then slept on the wheel. EU has effectively made a mess of foreign policy and despite the intent of leaders, the machinery to move to get anything done is so laborious, nothing gets done. And Brexit mess was a major distraction.

EU & UK know they are guilty and they think massive this overreach of sanctions on Russia will somehow compensate. But they now have Ukrainian blood and 4+ million refugees on their hands. EU Parliament (an absurd Institution) president Roberta Metsola (ever heard of her?) is in Kyiv today promising elensky a blank cheque book for Ukrainian reconstruction to European standards, with European people's money, or whatever is left after high energy prices, high inflation and economic slump.

Thats the price Europe must pay for its hypocrisy, spinelessness to keep predatory US out of European affairs, not pulling the plug on a "brain dead" NATO and not overcoming its borrowed Russophobia in the political spheres while never pausing to think why no such phobia exists in economic or cultural spheres. And for not investing enough in bringing Ukraine closer to Europe from the start. And even attempt the same with Russia for that matter, post 1991.

Russia has its share of blame, Putin for maintaining antagonistic postures against US and partly against EU to maintain his grip on the country, its people for getting blinded by bling and not fighting enough for democratic systems, and both for this war against a brother nation Ukraine at tremendous cost to themselves.

The ultimate price is of course paid by the Ukrainians who were greedy and gullible or misled and duped, probably all of that, and have sacrificed 3 decades of toil and their next generation youth at the altar of American Military Industrial complex to feed its insatiable addiction for conflict and strife. Frustratingly they won't back off and try to make peace with their own eastern region citizens or compromise with Russia even now, and insist upon being the gazelle that gets crushed between two fighting elephants.

I won't talk about America's responsibility because they've never shouldered any since the cold war era. Its culpability however merits a post of its own.

[IndraD]

we keep reading reports of more lethal aid on way, Poland commits 500 tanks to Ukr, gears and weapons from US ...limitless supply to Ukr from West.
Why is Russia not worried about them?

[IndraD]

Japan Will Not Exit From Sakhalin-2 LNG Project In Russia As It Essential To Energy Security, PM Kishida says https://swarajyamag.com/infrastructure/ ... shida-says

[IndraD]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15102089 ... _xu-YQM4og
Russian army rapidly leaving North positions , regrouping in Donbass

[rsingh]

we keep reading reports of more lethal aid on way, Poland commits 500 tanks to Ukr, gears and weapons from US ...limitless supply to Ukr from West.
Why is Russia not worried about them?

Legitimate target as these weapon enter Ukraine. These are old Soviet tanks mind you. Germany made noise about Leopard tanks but nothing on the ground. Imagine German H&D once Leopards are destroyed in battlefield. So Germans are being prudent. Closed fist is better than open one.

[chanakyaa]

RSingh beat me..

Logistics?? How does Poland guarantee safe passage of tanks traveling potentially 500-1000 km and availability of fuel? Small equipment, yes it can be shipped in non-mil vehicles. It has been 35+ days, where is fuel, food reliably coming from for armed forces and population?

[IndraD]

these supplies are not coming to the East ukr for sure, not even Kiev cos CNN BBC are constantly reporting severe scarcity of drinking water, food, fuel in Kiev, residents are even eating dogs.

[IndraD]

Food supplies running out in Kyiv with empty shelves and huge queues at shops https://metro.co.uk/2022/03/01/ukraine- ... -16192930/

this was 1st march

[vera_k]

Russian draft

This conflict looks ready to spread with the Russians planning for reinforcements. Non-trivial possibility now that USA gets directly involved at some point (closer to elections) due to domestic political theater.

[IndraD]

these are based on reports/sources/intelligence of west ^^
(most of the news coming from West is fake news anyway)
Do we have any better evidence level?

[Jay]

The path Ukranians chose was the right one, the West. The historic blunder they made was equating the west with warmongering US and NATO instead of mercantile EU. To make things worse they stoked ethnic divide in their own country and goaded and funded by the US, weaponised it against Russia. WTF were they thinking? May be they were blinded by the CIA propaganda and slush of funds during 2014 Maidan revolution and completely lost their head. They also ignored the warning shots fired by Russia when they took over Crimea and even when their own eastern republics started breaking away as LPR and DPR.

Europe has much to blame for this, Germany & France were co-signatories of Minsk accords I and II in 2014 and 2015 but then slept on the wheel. EU has effectively made a mess of foreign policy and despite the intent of leaders, the machinery to move to get anything done is so laborious, nothing gets done. And Brexit mess was a major distraction.

Russia has its share of blame, Putin for maintaining antagonistic postures against US and partly against EU to maintain his grip on the country, its people for getting blinded by bling and not fighting enough for democratic systems, and both for this war against a brother nation Ukraine at tremendous cost to themselves.

Well said

[g.sarkar]

Some random thoughts: EU is boring. NATO is sexy. If you have grown up watching TV coming from the West and movies from Hollywood everyday, you are hypnotized and want to be a part of that lifestyle at any cost. So, no one wants to be a part of Russia. Unfortunately, Ukraine was the bread basket of the USSR. The EU has enough of bread, that is not needed (and there are lakes of wine and mountains of butter, all unsold). The Soviet industry was old and out dated. There is nothing that Ukraine can offer to EU that is needed by them. Poland has shown how much investment is needed to bring up a nation to EU standards. West Europe may not be willing to invest that massively in Ukraine. And this will take a long time for the common people to get a better standard of living. However, EU does need able bodied men to man its industries. Ukraine is able to provide white "guest workers" for that purpose. These are preferred to the "colored" Africans or the peaceful people from Turkey and Arab lands. So, the unrest may actually benefit the EU industry, if the war does not spread. Germany has already shown to better treat refugees from Europe, that look similar to the local folks and cause less disruptions. After the break up of the Soviet Union, it is quite easy for Ukrainian students to get residency in Germany, so that they can work there. Going back to WWII, most able bodied German men were fighting the Soviet Red army. Women managed homes and some worked. That left Germany to import foreign workers to work the concentration camps and in captive industries. We all know about Ukrainian guards running the concentration lagers and forced labor camps. And they were well known for their brutality.
Gautam

[dnivas]

Russian draft

This conflict looks ready to spread with the Russians planning for reinforcements. Non-trivial possibility now that USA gets directly involved at some point (closer to elections) due to domestic political theater.

99% of western news outlets is trash and fake. I am not sure why we are even regurgitating these reports. what will it take for us to wean ourself from this mindset, that I do not know

[dnivas]

I think after Ukr drama is over, Poland will be taught a lesson.

[ks_sachin]

I think after Ukr drama is over, Poland will be taught a lesson.

By who?

[Roop]

I think after Ukr drama is over, Poland will be taught a lesson.

What do you mean? "Taught a lesson" by whom? Don't forget Poland is a NATO country.

[John]

we keep reading reports of more lethal aid on way, Poland commits 500 tanks to Ukr, gears and weapons from US ...limitless supply to Ukr from West.
Why is Russia not worried about them?

Russia needs to be more worried all captured weaponry Ukr forces are getting their hands on than any western weapons. The amount equipment that has been abandoned by the retreating Russian forces is mind blowing.

[Atmavik]

I think after Ukr drama is over, Poland will be taught a lesson.

i hope ur not referring to re militarizing germans ??

[yogeshkumar]

we keep reading reports of more lethal aid on way, Poland commits 500 tanks to Ukr, gears and weapons from US ...limitless supply to Ukr from West.
Why is Russia not worried about them?

Russia needs to be more worried all captured weaponry Ukr forces are getting their hands on than any western weapons. The amount equipment that has been abandoned by the retreating Russian forces is mind blowing.

Goes both ways. Two Ukrainian Helicopters that were shot down in Mariupol (that were trying to escort out the Ukrainian leader ship from Mariupol), were shot down by Stingers missiles that DPR captured from retreating Ukrainian army in Donbass.

[John]

Russia needs to be more worried all captured weaponry Ukr forces are getting their hands on than any western weapons. The amount equipment that has been abandoned by the retreating Russian forces is mind blowing.

Goes both ways. Two Ukrainian Helicopters that were shot down in Mariupol (that were trying to escort out the Ukrainian leader ship from Mariupol), were shot down by Stingers missiles that DPR captured from retreating Ukrainian army in Donbass.

Referring to captured not destroyed. As for destroyed videos we have seen coming from northern offensive of numerous Russian vehicles getting destroyed, it is bad . Shows a rushed poorly planned retreat with no air cover.

Anyway Oryx hasn’t yet updated the list for all equipment captured and destroyed in the north in the past couple days. So this list below should only grow further for Russians.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... t.html?m=1

[bala]

I keep wondering how the Ukies are even capable of command and control, they are dispersed everywhere, elensky mutters something on TV, all the Euros are mighty pissed and bothered especially wrt Gas/Oil, Deep State keeps issuing more dire threats and consequences, Poland is trying to get rid of its ancient Soviet/Rus arms, the pot keeps boiling and someone occasionally shoves a ladle to stir things up. The Azovs and other nut cases are rampant in their torture tactics. Where is it possible for any coordination. The deep state is blowing away billions of US taxpayer's money on Ukies (don't know how they will recoup the loss). Meanwhile Rus is ensconced in war rooms planning their next move, claiming calmly that their objectives are being met (taken with a pinch of salt whether true or not). MSM is having a field day reporting things either made up or some silly side show. Everyone is become Armchair General calling the next analysis with coulda, shoulda, woulda, oughto, etc projections. Rus meanwhile is selling their oil and gas, rouble is back to where it was, some territory of Ukies firmly in their hand, key Ukie places being taken out by hypersonic missiles. I think that sums up my understanding so far.

[yogeshkumar]

Goes both ways. Two Ukrainian Helicopters that were shot down in Mariupol (that were trying to escort out the Ukrainian leader ship from Mariupol), were shot down by Stingers missiles that DPR captured from retreating Ukrainian army in Donbass.

Referring to captured not destroyed. As for destroyed videos we have seen coming from northern offensive of numerous Russian vehicles getting destroyed, it is bad . Shows a rushed poorly planned retreat with no air cover.

That's not what I said. I said " Stingers missiles that DPR captured from retreating Ukrainian army". DPR (allied with Russia) has been capturing lot of Ukrainian armor. And they are using it against Ukraine.

Most of vehicles that Russia left behind is damaged.. what is left in working order .. will need lot of Diesel to run. And Ukraine is fast running out of any diesel. Russia wouldn't be too worried about that.

[John]

Referring to captured not destroyed. As for destroyed videos we have seen coming from northern offensive of numerous Russian vehicles getting destroyed, it is bad . Shows a rushed poorly planned retreat with no air cover.

That's not what I said. I said " Stingers missiles that DPR captured from retreating Ukrainian army". DPR (allied with Russia) has been capturing lot of Ukrainian armor. And they are using it against Ukraine.

Most of vehicles that Russia left behind is damaged.. what is left in working order .. will need lot of Diesel to run. And Ukraine is fast running out of any diesel. Russia wouldn't be too worried about that.

There is no video or any proof of shoot down by a stinger, unless there is a evidence such as shoot down video I wouldn’t take any claims from both sides seriously.

The original comment was regarding supply of armor by Western European countries my point was they are capturing more from Russia which is bigger threat than any old soviet era armor from ex Warsaw Pact countries. If they don’t have fuel to run that they won’t have fuel run former either.

[Zynda]

There have been reports of Russian army shooting civilian men of ages between 16-60 during their retreat from a town called Bucha. Apparently, the killing was done in execution style with hands tied behind their backs.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-04-02/

If its true, totally unprofessional & barbaric acts by Russian army...gradually they are proving that they are not a first class force.

[Kati]

Most likely western propaganda: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPDtFdXkxL4

[John]

Most likely western propaganda: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPDtFdXkxL4

Better off looking at the actual kill video, in this case I confirm it is Starstreak or definitely not a Stinger or Igla. Moves way too fast and explosion is pretty small (tungsten rod). My only question is what happened to the other two rods.

https://youtu.be/W_b64pkeDM4

[Igorr]

Jew Zelensky clearly put on the wrong card
"When the Nazis invaded, the Soviet government evacuated as many Jews as it could, including from southern Ukraine and the Crimea behind Red Army lines to protect them. Those who remained were killed by the Nazis and their Ukrainian nationalist collaborators". https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/i ... possession

[Pratyush]

There have been reports of Russian army shooting civilian men of ages between 16-60 during their retreat from a town called Bucha. Apparently, the killing was done in execution style with hands tied behind their backs.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-04-02/

If its true, totally unprofessional & barbaric acts by Russian army...gradually they are proving that they are not a first class force.

Can we genuinely believe that news. The kind of censorship displayed against the Russians makes it impossible to see the Russians viewpoint in the western news organisations.

[IndraD]

reading across forums, wapp groups one striking find is desi in US are firmly rooting for US & are staunchly opposed to Russia, where as desi based in desh are supporting Russia, few shifters here and there but it seems to be the case near & far. Also desi supporting US doesn't extend to Indians outside India but not in US.

[IndraD]

Can we genuinely believe that news. The kind of censorship displayed against the Russians makes it impossible to see the Russians viewpoint in the western news organisations.

fake news is having a field day (no matter how big or small media house), west media is running imaginary stories citing reports, sources, intelligence

[Cyrano]

Understandable to some extent, it takes lot of effort in US to look for info beyond their MSM. I suspect most Indians in US will be trying to show that they "belong" there for their entire lives, and are quickly faced with "either you are with us or against us" if they try to voice a different opinion.

[IndraD]

fully agree ^
also it would be dealt with severely in US if a desi is found following up news from RT news, Sputnik news etc. Even following Russian handles on twitter in US can land you in trouble under this pretext or other.

[Cyrano]

[Baikul]

…..

Anyway Oryx hasn’t yet updated the list for all equipment captured and destroyed in the north in the past couple days. So this list below should only grow further for Russians.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... t.html?m=1

Oryx is for my money the best open source intelligence site tracking equipment losses in this war. With the usual caveats of their own biases which seem to be pro - western.

Their data can be used as a starting point for multiple types of analyses. For example tracking the impact of the TB2 - in the early days the drone contribution in terms of overall Russian equipment losses seems to be declining. There could be multiple interesting reasons for this. I’m any case what’s clear is that in this war at least the Bayraktar has been used or is most effective against soft skinned vehicles. I can’t see a single tank kill (unlike the Armenian Azerbaijani war where significant numbers of tanks were apparently taken out by this drone)

Another example - the proportion of equipment abandoned to that destroyed seems to also have changed over time - it’s another window into the campaign for those interested.

In terms of updates, I suspect they’re being run ragged these last 2/3 days. We should see some major numbers soon.