Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 03 Apr 2022 14:26

I’m sure I’m not the only one noticing a certain hardening in tone, rising frustration and bitterness even, from
Zelenskyy against his allies in the west? Perhaps the Ukrainian president begins to realise the time or material limits of western help. I’m sure the US and UK intend to fight to the last Ukrainian.

A recent example from a speech Zelenskyy gave.

If someone is afraid to make the necessary decisions, for us to obtain planes, tanks, the necessary artillery and shells, it makes these people co-responsible for the catastrophe created by Russian troops in Ukrainian cities

.

There are other instances as well.

Igorr · Post by **Igorr** » 03 Apr 2022 14:39

IndraD wrote:reading across forums, wapp groups one striking find is desi in US are firmly rooting for US & are staunchly opposed to Russia, where as desi based in desh are supporting Russia, few shifters here and there but it seems to be the case near & far. Also desi supporting US doesn't extend to Indians outside India but not in US.

I am also very surprised that some Indians are able to sympathize with the Ukrainian Nazi regime, which allows mockery of the non-white population of Ukraine. In this case, Ukrainian soldiers and party activists mock young women of Indostan origin (Gypsies).
https://ibb.co/VSW2mCM
https://ibb.co/374RqZ1
https://ibb.co/QKcCdqS
https://ibb.co/hd5KCM9
https://ibb.co/8BFHWQj
https://ibb.co/K5y7DcN
https://ibb.co/5h7J4Mw

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 03 Apr 2022 14:41

Kati wrote:Most likely western propaganda: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPDtFdXkxL4

The first casualty when war comes is truth. I do not believe anything either side is saying without proof.
Gautam

John · Post by **John** » 03 Apr 2022 15:54

I’m any case what’s clear is that in this war at least the Bayraktar has been used or is most effective against soft skinned vehicles. I can’t see a single tank kill (unlike the Armenian Azerbaijani war where significant numbers of tanks were apparently taken out by this drone)

Unlike Azerbaijan, Ukraine drone warfare capabilities aren’t that mature they were just getting TB-2s operational when conflict started and unlike the former they don’t posses the Israeli Searcher/Hermes/Heron either.

As a result they are forced to use TB-2s for recon as well and we seen it be used for artillery spotting. However it’s civilian drones which have emerged for Ukraine as unsung hero and they are being used quite effectively.

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 03 Apr 2022 17:09

PETER HITCHENS: The USA wants this war... so it can drive Russia back to the Stone Age

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... e-Age.html

Abhi_G · Post by **Abhi_G** » 03 Apr 2022 18:24

Igorr wrote: I am also very surprised that some Indians are able to sympathize with the Ukrainian Nazi regime, which allows mockery of the non-white population of Ukraine. In this case, Ukrainian soldiers and party activists mock young women of Indostan origin (Gypsies).
https://ibb.co/VSW2mCM
https://ibb.co/374RqZ1
https://ibb.co/QKcCdqS
https://ibb.co/hd5KCM9
https://ibb.co/8BFHWQj
https://ibb.co/K5y7DcN
https://ibb.co/5h7J4Mw

The Romani question has a totally different dimension. They faced discrimination throughout eastern Europe throughout ages and the 'final solution' under Nazi Germany. Discrimination continues until today; so this was just an opportune moment for pogrom by Azov. So whether it is the Azov now humiliating the Romani ladies and girls (the pictures are dated, at least 2 weeks old) and liquidating Romani camps, the situation is not going to be different in Russia/across east Europe. They are the untermenschen for every side.

John · Post by **John** » 03 Apr 2022 19:15

g.sarkar wrote:
Kati wrote:Most likely western propaganda: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPDtFdXkxL4
The first casualty when war comes is truth. I do not believe anything either side is saying without proof.
Gautam

That’s already confirmed a Starstreak shot down a Mi-28. I replied to his post with that information. Please don’t turn to auto generated news videos for information on this conflict given how they lack much information and just spitting out wiki information.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 03 Apr 2022 22:26

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... e-Age.html

A ‘senior diplomat’ was quoted on Friday, by a commentator with ready access to the great and the good, as saying: ‘If you look at all the options, our strategic interest is probably best served in a long war, a quagmire that drains Putin militarily and economically so he cannot do this again.’

It's likely Russia might have learnt from its and America's experience in Afghanisthan and planned accordingly to avert a long war. The area and population involved are much smaller than Afg and more importantly its bordering Russia and has a sizable Russian population.

yogeshkumar · Post by **yogeshkumar** » 03 Apr 2022 22:44

Igorr wrote:
IndraD wrote:reading across forums, wapp groups one striking find is desi in US are firmly rooting for US & are staunchly opposed to Russia, where as desi based in desh are supporting Russia, few shifters here and there but it seems to be the case near & far. Also desi supporting US doesn't extend to Indians outside India but not in US.
I am also very surprised that some Indians are able to sympathize with the Ukrainian Nazi regime, which allows mockery of the non-white population of Ukraine. In this case, Ukrainian soldiers and party activists mock young women of Indostan origin (Gypsies).
https://ibb.co/VSW2mCM
https://ibb.co/374RqZ1
https://ibb.co/QKcCdqS
https://ibb.co/hd5KCM9
https://ibb.co/8BFHWQj
https://ibb.co/K5y7DcN
https://ibb.co/5h7J4Mw

Not every Indian in US supports US/EU propaganda against Russia. I am here in US.. and I can see how US/EU have been doing regime change through out world for last 30 years. Iraq, Iran, Chile, Libya, Syria, Ukraine...list goes on.

And lo & behold.. they are doing it as we speak.. in Pakistan

We tend to forget that 80% of any population (whether US, India, China, EU, Pakistan).. is just too gullible. They believe what they hear and see on TV. And they have gotten dumber ever since the Social Media came along. Now idiots can reach out and find other idiots much quicker

Its like Stupidity on steroids.

kit · Post by **kit** » 03 Apr 2022 22:48

Haresh wrote:PETER HITCHENS: The USA wants this war... so it can drive Russia back to the Stone Age

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... e-Age.html

Not as simple.,

US wants Europe to rearm, and buy weapons from them., and ..oil and gas as well! ..in short, a huge transfer of wealth from Europe to America. Russia is just a red herring

Europe will impoverish itself and follow the middle east pattern with its endless conflicts and agendas

UK has "insulated" in a way by Brexit but in the process losing its edge economically, militarily, and politically. Wonder why they still have a veto in the UNSC ?

Russia will survive as it always did., but this time more aligned with Asia.

Some time later America will revisit the horrors it had sought to inflict on others , it will be their own doing., as cryptic as it sounds, the signs are already there.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 03 Apr 2022 22:51

There are rumors that General Valerii Zaluzhnyi - Head of Ukrainian armed forces killed during an overnight operation of Russian special forces in Kharkov when he was meeting Ukrainian soldiers for morale boosting

Any truth in it?

kit · Post by **kit** » 03 Apr 2022 22:54

Baikul wrote: A recent example from a speech Zelenskyy gave.

If someone is afraid to make the necessary decisions, for us to obtain planes, tanks, the necessary artillery and shells, it makes these people co-responsible for the catastrophe created by Russian troops in Ukrainian cities
.

There are other instances as well.

Well he is learning what politicians mean the hard way., thats what happens when you elect a comedian for president ., the jokes on them as tragic as it is

The earlier he gets over with this war., there might be some semblance of a country left to govern!!

Battling a gorilla with pea shots egged on by "friends" is likely to have him and his country in ruins

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 03 Apr 2022 23:48

IndraD wrote:reading across forums, wapp groups one striking find is desi in US are firmly rooting for US & are staunchly opposed to Russia, where as desi based in desh are supporting Russia, few shifters here and there but it seems to be the case near & far. Also desi supporting US doesn't extend to Indians outside India but not in US.

yogeshkumar wrote:
Not every Indian in US supports US/EU propaganda against Russia. I am here in US.. and I can see how US/EU have been doing regime change through out world for last 30 years. Iraq, Iran, Chile, Libya, Syria, Ukraine...list goes on.

And lo & behold.. they are doing it as we speak.. in Pakistan

We tend to forget that 80% of any population (whether US, India, China, EU, Pakistan).. is just too gullible. They believe what they hear and see on TV. And they have gotten dumber ever since the Social Media came along. Now idiots can reach out and find other idiots much quicker Its like Stupidity on steroids.

Me neither. A minority of one in my house though. SHQ does not want to listen to anything I say, blindly follows ABC news

For this and many other reasons, any discussion of politics is banned in our house.

In my desi college class WA group (people scattered around the world), the majority opinion initially seemed to be a reflection of the US stance, but that is slowly changing. People still think Putin is the devil though.

yogeshkumar · Post by **yogeshkumar** » 04 Apr 2022 00:52

Primus wrote: Me neither. A minority of one in my house though. SHQ does not want to listen to anything I say, blindly follows ABC news

For this and many other reasons, any discussion of politics is banned in our house.

In my desi college class WA group (people scattered around the world), the majority opinion initially seemed to be a reflection of the US stance, but that is slowly changing. People still think Putin is the devil though.

We don't watch any news on TV in our home. I get my news from multiple (& different POV) sources online.. and my wife from her friends via SM

Couple of weeks back.. she comes to me and asked: "why is Russia bombing and killing people in Ukraine?"

So I asked her "so that is one side of story (Ukraine's).. what is the other side of story?". Every story has two sides. Unless one is aware of both sides, it is very hard to come to any fair & reasonable conclusions. I just provided a brief background around Ukraine's history, US/Nato's involvement and that war really didn't start now, rather it started in 2014.. and has killed 14000+ civilians in eastern Ukraine since 2014". She is wise and once she gets the second side of story.. she goes her own way without getting emotionally attached to that topic anymore. Unlike me... I get attached and try to keep trying to do what little I can.. to spread other side of story to others.

bala · Post by **bala** » 04 Apr 2022 01:15

Stupidity on steroids

The amount of stupidity ruling the world is more than half. The US seems to breed more idiots, everyone takes in MSM as gospel truth. Long ago I met this smart finance desi guy in US and congratulated him on coming on local TV news. "Are Bhai do you want to be on news", and I said no. Then he told me a small contribution was made and voila you are on news channel. Every news item in the US and Western media is paid for by someone who hypes themselves on news, the 60 min on CBS is such nonsense. The default payment comes from the Deep State actors. Also every editor of news/TV has a connection with Deep State, so any news is always tilted towards the Deep State agenda. One team writes the news article and the rest of them copy it verbatim and regurgitate the same, so everyone believes it must be true since NYT/WaPo/BBC/DerSpiegel/ABC/NBC/MSNBC/CNN/Reuter/AP everyone of them are saying the same. Favorite phrases are kept in global catalog (e.g. hindu extremists which is an oxymoron) and copied & pasted in all news article. Some events like presidential debates are controlled for the questions. Trump, got wind of this and he brought in women accusers of Billy Boy Clinton during the Hilary-Trump debate and turned the table so to speak. The Deep State keeps a check on everyone and they have key people in place in MSM and Govt of US. Effectively the common US Aadmi is lulled into the 24 hr news cycle, only the independent thinkers are skeptical of the whole show. I contend that all news in Western media is fake and false at least the way it is slanted for consumption. If you want the truth you have to think independently and ask yourself does it make logical sense. I glance at liberal news media like Yahoo news for example and have a good laugh/comic relief at the nonsense spewed everyday.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 04 Apr 2022 05:50

Russia to bring a motion to UNSC tomorrow with regard to Bucha massacre. Possible pro russian civs killed by AZOV NAZI groups.

Also good points from Kit and Yogesh. it's almost like instant brainwash.
Greenwald just posted a statistic where he compared Civ deaths in iraq during the first months and the compares it against the ukr conflict. The civ deaths are twice but you do not see the same reaction from the world against the americans.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 04 Apr 2022 09:51

Check the latest news from Oirope.....

In Hungary and Serbia voters have handed down crushing defeats to pro-EU, pro-NATO parties, and rewarded massive wins to pro-Moscow regimes.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 04 Apr 2022 13:02

Amateur internet analysts have debunked elensky's Bucha lies. While no one can say for sure if the bodies are real or not, the videos released by Ukr indeed appear to be staged. The most damning detail is that Russians left Bucha on mar 30th, town's mayor announced Bucha is liberated on 31st, no mention of the alleged massacre of 80 people, April 1 & 2, Ukr army and Azov battalions enter the town, April 3 Ukr govt releases these videos.

kit · Post by **kit** » 04 Apr 2022 13:21

dnivas wrote:Russia to bring a motion to UNSC tomorrow with regard to Bucha massacre. Possible pro russian civs killed by AZOV NAZI groups.

Also good points from Kit and Yogesh. it's almost like instant brainwash.
Greenwald just posted a statistic where he compared Civ deaths in iraq during the first months and the compares it against the ukr conflict. The civ deaths are twice but you do not see the same reaction from the world against the americans.

The Ukrainian Azov Nazis are doing their agenda of ethnic cleansing under the cover of Russian conflict. I hope Russia brings out evidence, but then the whole western media is compromised

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 Apr 2022 13:31

I am in US, and not all Indo Americans oppose Russia either. I cannot quantify, though. It is Universal for humans to oppose war these days, and based on the media reports it is likely that Indo-Americans also view Russia as not only the aggressor, but the cause of the human suffering.
No doubt there are some Indo Americans who are star eyed w.r.t America. Inevitable for many immigrants.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 04 Apr 2022 15:44

With Russia vacating all its positions in Northern and Central Ukraine, including the areas around Kyiv, Sunny and Chernihiv (the last two in process apparently), the action shifts to the roughly crescent shape of the North East - East - South East - South.

IMO combatant roles will largely be reversed as Ukraine (assuming it wants to) goes on the offensive and Russia takes a defensive posture to consolidate its recent gains.
along its border. From the Kharkiv region to the coastal strip along Kherson, and of course Crimea (from 2014). Mariupol, continues to resist and here the Russians will keep up the offensive until presumably they prevail.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 04 Apr 2022 16:22

Major powers' invasions of smaller nations are very destructive. In 1991, the US first destroyed Iraq's military and civilian infrastructure through 42 days of nonstop aerial bombings before putting boots on the ground. Libya is still a failed state due to NATO's 2011 deadly war.

Today is just 40th day of Russia's invasion. Is "Putin losing in Ukraine," as some in the West claim? If one goes by the French defense ministry map of Russian advances, Russia has:
◉created a land corridor to Crimea;
◉captured the Azov coast;
◉seized much of Black Sea coast.
See Map:
https://t.co/tpx3OHmK4P

Putin's endgame seems to be to create a strategic buffer against NATO. Will he seek to extend the buffer by seizing the rest of Black Sea coast? In any event, Russia won't vacate its land-grabs. (The only nation that has given up its war gains without any quid pro quo is India.)

https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/15 ... c6qSQ&s=19

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 04 Apr 2022 16:35

The withdrawal from Kyiv and north is to refocus troops in the east to envelop Ukr forces in a cauldron . Any Ukr troops trying to escape westwards will be destroyed with air raids. When the cauldron closes on them it will be a bloody end or surrender.

Then Putin will announce the creation of novorussia with DLR, DPR, southern coastal belt along Azov sea and Black Sea, perhaps grab the coast all the way to Odessa. The Ukr troops currently guarding Odessa will move eastwards to prevent the cauldron closing, they will be decimated too.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 04 Apr 2022 16:52

Request you to put the above in your post quotes Manish ji, as otherwise the material comes across as your original. Whereas when I clicked the link I realised it was Brahma Chellaney.

Also that map may be a bit outdated as Russia troops are said to have left Chernihiv and Sumy regions in the North.

Edit - this map though also delayed may be a bit more current

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... ame=iossmf

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 04 Apr 2022 17:42

Cyrano wrote:The withdrawal from Kyiv and north is to refocus troops in the east to envelop Ukr forces in a cauldron . Any Ukr troops trying to escape westwards will be destroyed with air raids. When the cauldron closes on them it will be a bloody end or surrender.

Then Putin will announce the creation of novorussia with DLR, DPR, southern coastal belt along Azov sea and Black Sea, perhaps grab the coast all the way to Odessa. The Ukr troops currently guarding Odessa will move eastwards to prevent the cauldron closing, they will be decimated too.

Couldn't the Russians have sent more (and fresh) troops to Donbas and rotated out those in the north? If Russians have moved out of the North, it would be much easier and faster for Ukraine forces in Keiv to consolidate towards Donbas than Russians who have to go around North/North East Ukraine to reach Donbas.

John · Post by **John** » 04 Apr 2022 17:56

hanumadu wrote:
Cyrano wrote:The withdrawal from Kyiv and north is to refocus troops in the east to envelop Ukr forces in a cauldron . Any Ukr troops trying to escape westwards will be destroyed with air raids. When the cauldron closes on them it will be a bloody end or surrender.

Then Putin will announce the creation of novorussia with DLR, DPR, southern coastal belt along Azov sea and Black Sea, perhaps grab the coast all the way to Odessa. The Ukr troops currently guarding Odessa will move eastwards to prevent the cauldron closing, they will be decimated too.
Couldn't the Russians have sent more (and fresh) troops to Donbas and rotated out those in the north? If Russians have moved out of the North, it would be much easier and faster for Ukraine forces in Keiv to consolidate towards Donbas than Russians who have to go around North/North East Ukraine to reach Donbas.

I don’t believe the Russians expected North to collapse this fast, The dug in units where supposed to provide cover and slow down Ukr advance. Allowing the rest to regroup and attack the east while Ukr forces are clearing up the north. But looks miscommunication and low morale played a role in lines collapsing and basically everyone retreating. This allowed Ukr forces to inflict heavy casualties on retreating forces as well capture the North pretty quickly.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 04 Apr 2022 18:24

hanumadu wrote:
Cyrano wrote:The withdrawal from Kyiv and north is to refocus troops in the east to envelop Ukr forces in a cauldron . Any Ukr troops trying to escape westwards will be destroyed with air raids. When the cauldron closes on them it will be a bloody end or surrender.

Then Putin will announce the creation of novorussia with DLR, DPR, southern coastal belt along Azov sea and Black Sea, perhaps grab the coast all the way to Odessa. The Ukr troops currently guarding Odessa will move eastwards to prevent the cauldron closing, they will be decimated too.
Couldn't the Russians have sent more (and fresh) troops to Donbas and rotated out those in the north? If Russians have moved out of the North, it would be much easier and faster for Ukraine forces in Keiv to consolidate towards Donbas than Russians who have to go around North/North East Ukraine to reach Donbas.

There are a bunch of numbers out there, but broadly the Russian ground forces are said to have 280,000 active duty personnel.

Of these, conscripts (one year service term) number between 25 to 35 percent (70-100k) depending on your source. In Russia conscripts are not supposed to serve on war zones. Which takes about 70,000- 100,000 from the active war duty pool.

So that leaves about 180,000- 210,000 ‘long term volunteer soldiers’ or contract soldiers (Russian terminology) to wage war in Ukraine. Of course there were allegations that conscript soldiers were being deployed but it was refuted by Russia.

Of these 180,000- 200,000 contract soldiers 150,000 were apparently already employed in the theatre in Ukraine, I’d they are at war.

Which in theory leaves a reserve of fresh 30,000- 50,000 ‘ war ready’ contract soldiers inside Russia. In a country the size of Russia with so many other security needs and deployments, deploying this reserve may become a challenge.

Russo has called up 135,000 new conscripts but training them will take months.

Hence the slower redeployment of the already blooded Kyiv forces to the east. I believe this is what’s happening but it’s conjecture. For all I know the Russians may be doing what you are suggesting.

Edit - the led around use of conscripts is a bit more nuanced but my point on time versus deployment still stands

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 04 Apr 2022 18:44

Couldn't the Russians have sent more (and fresh) troops to Donbas and rotated out those in the north? If Russians have moved out of the North, it would be much easier and faster for Ukraine forces in Keiv to consolidate towards Donbas than Russians who have to go around North/North East Ukraine to reach Donbas.

Thats something I've wondered about as well, but couldn't find any satisfactory explanation. The only thing I can think of speculatively is this: This invasion was planned and prepared for months based on Putin's general's' inputs from the intelligence side and the fighting forces side, that to achieve what he asked of them they need X amount of land, air and sea assets and troops, and Y amount of time and resources, justified by the quick fall of Kyiv, UkrA's capabilities gap wrt RA, surrender of Ukr troops, popular support in Ukr for invading RA and flight of elensky & his govt. Those didn't materialise and Putin was furious, but he couldn't call back or undo the invasion. So he must have set conditions to his generals, I'll give you more time and some more resources, but not more units and not unlimited air support. If you dont get the job done I'll sack you. His generals were cornered and agreed. Its not the best way to go about this war, but thats what it is. Strong autocratic rulers are quite capable of such things.

This could also explain why so many senior officers of the RA were involved in the thick of the operations and several got killed in the process. The consequences for failure were too high, so they took bigger battlefield risks.

As to retreating Russian forces taking huge losses, its possible, but I haven't seen enough evidence of that.

One thing I'm more and more inclined to think is that the way this war is playing out now is very different from how it was originally imagined. Still not a failure for RA, but definitely a lot more difficult and costly than they thought it would be. Putin may very well agree to press more troops if the need becomes stark in the coming weeks, but his generals will have hell to pay to get them.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 04 Apr 2022 19:00

Baikul wrote:Request you to put the above in your post quotes Manish ji, as otherwise the material comes across as your original. Whereas when I clicked the link I realised it was Brahma Chellaney.

Also that map may be a bit outdated as Russia troops are said to have left Chernihiv and Sumy regions in the North.

Edit - this map though also delayed may be a bit more current

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... ame=iossmf

I gave both links, be it map or tweet so people understand where the source is.

I have now put it in quote

John · Post by **John** » 04 Apr 2022 19:16

As to retreating Russian forces taking huge losses, its possible, but I haven't seen enough evidence of that.

There is also a video that showed like 20+ Russian vehicles ambushed trying to find those.

https://twitter.com/arslon_xudosi/statu ... sCcO__JTqw
https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... sCcO__JTqw
https://twitter.com/arslon_xudosi/statu ... sCcO__JTqw
https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... sCcO__JTqw
https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/15 ... Rq0f3oeYTQ

Oryx has been trying to catch up and he noted Russian losses where hard to keep pace
3/4 losses: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... sCcO__JTqw

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 04 Apr 2022 19:36

For those wondering about high Russian general staff losses.

One theory is that the Russian way of war - while attempts have been made to change through a modem NCO system- leaves less scope for tactical initiative at the lower levels. With the result that once something goes wrong it takes higher ranking officers to get things moving again. This goes up to larger formations as well, so that while a NATO commander would be directing battles at a distance, it takes Russian general staff officers’ direct personal intervention to resolve significant mess ups or even logjams. With the result that they put themselves in way of harm much more than counterparts in western armies.

Manish_Sharma wrote:…
I gave both links, be it map or tweet so people understand where the source is.

I have now put it in quote

Thank you saar.

John wrote:…
There is also a video that showed like 20+ Russian vehicles ambushed trying to find those…

Do you have any online sources that can describe in some detail what’s happening around Mariupol, especially Azovstal factory? Problem is that we’re getting very little from the defenders (internet gone?) these past few days, and what we get from the Chechens and Russians is very limited

Pity because this is possibly the greatest battle of this war thus far.

John · Post by **John** » 04 Apr 2022 19:53

Baikul wrote: Do you have any online sources that can describe in some detail what’s happening around Mariupol, especially Azovstal factory? Problem is that we’re getting very little from the defenders (internet gone?) these past few days, and what we get from the Chechens and Russians is very limited

Mariupol appears like a black box not much from Ukraine and videos from Russia simply show patrols or interviews. So I assume Ukranians aren’t doing that well, I think main goal at this point is hold down all Russian forces long enough.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 04 Apr 2022 20:20

John wrote:
Baikul wrote: Do you have any online sources that can describe in some detail what’s happening around Mariupol, especially Azovstal factory? Problem is that we’re getting very little from the defenders (internet gone?) these past few days, and what we get from the Chechens and Russians is very limited
Mariupol appears like a black box not much from Ukraine and videos from Russia simply show patrols or interviews. So I assume Ukranians aren’t doing that well, I think main goal at this point is hold down all Russian forces long enough.

Well I’d say the Ukrainians in Mariupol have done extraordinarily well, having lasted so long. But they’re bound to lose, one just needs to look at the map.

We’re going to get a lot of books and maybe movies out of this particular battle. Leningrad comparisons are exaggerated, but this siege seems particularly unforgiving. Plus we have Azovstal to evoke world war 2 factory fighting memories. Add to that the Nazi Azov Batallion in the Ukrainian mix and it’s a particularly vicious affair. I don’t think they’re taking prisoners on either side, to put it mildly. And those prisoners will be lucky if they’re meeting quick ends.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 04 Apr 2022 20:38

Taking any urban city building by building which are all infested with snipers and traps are going to take a long time. Moreover, they also keep civilian as shields. So, when people say the azov nazis have lasted so long, it is not reflective of the reality how bloody difficult it is.

The only easy way is to get them to surrender but fanatics like nazis and islamists never do that.

The other way is bomb the hell out and destroy everything but Russians want some infrastructure and also save civilians who are Russian friendly.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 04 Apr 2022 21:15

Russians took Kherson in 6 days - a city that’s roughly jald the size of Mariupol in terms of area and population. But the siege of Mariupol has lasted 40 days so far. So urban fighting difficulties aside, there are always local conditions.

Mariupol is extraordinary in the context of this war.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 04 Apr 2022 21:20

I follow Russian channels on a daily basis and post some of my comments on the other (tactics) thread.
The average Russian has a good understanding of Military operations and all TV channels have embedded reporters, so there is a lot of real time combat footage and not much of human interest stories - e.g. grandmother/ pregnant woman/ hospital getting hit.

In summary:
1. There is hard fighting in Mariupol, you can see the tension on the faces of the soldiers fighting for every building. The city seems largely taken (except for 2 pockets about 5 sq km) and they have started redeploying troops, to seal the Donbass pocket. Lot of footage of Azov men with Nazi symbols and POWs being interviewed.
2. The majority of people in the Donbass are Russian, so they have to minimize civilian casualties.
3. Advance in the Donbass is very slow. At the end of a day a division might capture 1 village. The region has perhaps been more heavily fortified than the Russian army realized. Ukrainian militia have been mobilised so Russia does not have a numerical advantage. In a defensive role, a militia man with a Javelin, hiding in a barn can knock out a tank, or APC. Russians do not have enough infantry to clear every ambush site and can't fire indiscriminately.
4. Drones are being used by the Russians for artillery spotting. Lot of footage of drone feed followed by an artillery strike.
5. Russian air force has increased the tempo and is hitting oil storage facilities, armament plants, ammo dumps.
6. People mostly behind the army - even if they don't like Putin, they will support their sons/ brothers at the front.
7. Detailed debunking of the story of civilians being murdered near Kiev.

John · Post by **John** » 04 Apr 2022 21:22

Baikul wrote:Russians took Kherson in 6 days - a city that’s roughly jald the size of Mariupol in terms of area and population. But the siege of Mariupol has lasted 40 days so far. So urban fighting difficulties aside, there are always local conditions.

Mariupol is extraordinary in the context of this war.

There was very little fighting in Kherson city most of it happened in outskirts. Ukranians didn’t have defensive line by Kherson and they were still their bases when Russians crossed and where mins from there base they panicked and abandoned it as per RT. Looks like most of them tried to retreat and rest tried throw up defense outside the city. Lot of Ukranian military losses are from that encounter as Russian planes where able to hit them.

This was all blamed on a general who switched sides and took $$ not sure how credible that is, it is believed that Russians tried to get other Generals/military to do the same but it didn’t work out.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 04 Apr 2022 21:25

Baikul wrote:Russians took Kherson in 6 days - a city that’s roughly jald the size of Mariupol in terms of area and population. But the siege of Mariupol has lasted 40 days so far. So urban fighting difficulties aside, there are always local conditions.

Mariupol is extraordinary in the context of this war.

The Ukrainians have had literally years to fortify Mariupol. There were (by Ukrainian estimates) 7000 soldiers defending the city and many irregulars. They have more Anti tank weapons than an Indian army strike corps.
The Russian infantry attacking the city is no higher than 7000 - that's the number of men in the infantry companies of the 2 divisions involved in the fighting.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 04 Apr 2022 21:29

Baikul wrote: Mariupol is extraordinary in the context of this war.

If an group of well armed people decide to defend from urban area, it is difficult to dislodge them easily.
mariupol was defended by azovs, I think when Russians reached there it was 16000 azovs, now they are about 1000.
This siege in Philippines by about 1000 islamists took almost 6 months to clear
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Marawi

John · Post by **John** » 04 Apr 2022 21:30

Deans wrote:
Baikul wrote:Russians took Kherson in 6 days - a city that’s roughly jald the size of Mariupol in terms of area and population. But the siege of Mariupol has lasted 40 days so far. So urban fighting difficulties aside, there are always local conditions.

Mariupol is extraordinary in the context of this war.
The Ukrainians have had literally years to fortify Mariupol. There are (by Ukrainian estimates) 7000 soldiers defending the city and as many irregulars.
They have more Anti tank weapons than an Indian army strike corps.
The Russian infantry attacking the city is no higher than 7000 - that's the number of men in the infantry companies of the 2 divisions involved in the fighting.

Hmm no please don’t compare things with Indian Army. Our Milan arsenal over 30k and Kornet/Konkurs over 20k. UKR have nothing comparable to it. Our corps have pretty large arsenal of ATGM granted our arsenal of top attack missiles is limited to Spike atm.