Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 06 Apr 2022 18:27

It will be if the Russian economy does not bounce back quickly. This isnt the peasant/agrarian Russian society of the 19th and 20th century that would just suck up the hardships of revolutions and counter-revolutions, wars, mass deaths, destruction, hunger and continue to toil. At the dawn of 21st century Russia was a capitalistic, fast growing economy where millions were moving up to middle class, traveling, buying homes and cars, buying branded european goods etc and now all that has suddenly reversed. Ukraine with billions pouring in will rapidly rebuild , so Putin better have a plan to rebuild his economy too. Then there is the additional headache of holding on the land they have so far captured including DPR and LPR for years. It won't be easy and i am not sure how long he will last, without the oligarchs on his side his time will be up sooner than later, and the oligarchs having lost their fortunes and properties cannot be very pleased.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 06 Apr 2022 18:30

Well if one reads the western press, Putin Is:

Seriously ill and has cancer
Oligarchs are plotting to poison Putin
All his generals are mad at him and they will organise a coup to get rid of him
There are widespread protests against him in Moscow and soon he will be overthrown

All at the same time Of course the western press is the gold standard and can never be wrong so all of it must be true. The only conclusion from this one can draw is his days are numbered.

There you go.

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 06 Apr 2022 20:38

kit wrote:The U.S. is deliberately waging a war of regime change against Russia, and this started many years ago[/color][/b]
This RAND Corp. paper discusses the methods used to enact regime change and destroy Russia. The pathological focus on ruining a country is extremely sick. Consider this in context with the expansion of NATO, and the agenda becomes quite clear. Destroying a country means unrest, civil war, and the collapse of social services. To consider this some kind of game in which we “win” against some other nation is ghoulish. Real people are hurt when this happens.

This is the poisonous neocon mind set and the result of the Wolfowitz doctrine.

I am sure they have some thing similar planned for India and there is a similar report.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Apr 2022 21:39

Haresh, you dont need to quote the entire post to make a 2 line comment. Kindly edit your post. Thanks!

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 06 Apr 2022 21:50

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ ... 022-03-25/

Mexico's president on Friday said he had no information about comments from a U.S. general that Russian intelligence agents are based in Mexico, and reiterated Mexico's non-interventionist stance.

"Mexico is a free, independent, sovereign country ... We're not going to Moscow to spy on anybody, nor to Beijing... nor to Washington," he said.

I can't the find the link now, but I think the Mexico also said that it prefers a multi polar world and of course it did not sanction Russia.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 06 Apr 2022 22:01

The war will end the day Europe starts paying in rubles and other countries take a cue and trade in rubles and their own currencies.

The first time I heard of talks making progress is when Russia announced using union pay and trading with China in yuan.

Next is when Russia asked Europe to pay in rubles. USA will call off this war if there is a danger to dollar.

Maria · Post by **Maria** » 06 Apr 2022 22:08

Tanaji wrote:Well if one reads the western press, Putin Is:

Seriously ill and has cancer
Oligarchs are plotting to poison Putin
All his generals are mad at him and they will organise a coup to get rid of him
There are widespread protests against him in Moscow and soon he will be overthrown

All at the same time Of course the western press is the gold standard and can never be wrong so all of it must be true. The only conclusion from this one can draw is his days are numbered.

There you go.

A couple of things:

1) It does not matter if Putin lives or dies as there are others who collectively think the way the way the Russian gov thinks today, including Medvedev. The war is a result of a collective decision taken by the Russian deep state for whom Putin is just the face.

2) The war is not unpopular in Russia as the Russian populace has been sensitised to the need for this war.

3) The days of uncontrolled oligarchs running wild is over, they wield no power and fear the central powers.

4) The withdrawal is a feint and once the Ukr-orcs come out of the woodwork, Russia will unleash their true might.

I see so many parallels to the coming war here in the subcontinent. Hope our leadership is taking notes about our limitations and the methods of warfighting in relation to our enemy (they too have a smaller airforce and believe in force multipliers such as subs and drones).

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 06 Apr 2022 22:21

Whether Russia is right or wrong or whether Ukrainians are just useful idiots in the hands of US/Europe, one thing this war has clearly demonstrated is how important it is to have demographics on your side. It is no secret that Russia for the last 3 decades has been steadily losing people, very low birth rates, emigration, deaths that exceeds replacement rate have all made it a aging, slowing nation. In the past Russia/USSR has always thrown hundreds of thousands of men and won bloody wars based on attrition, pretty similar to what Iran did with Iraq for 10 yrs. Now Russia no longer has enough fighting age young men to capture part of neighboring Ukraine let alone wage a total war deep into Europe. This will also be the future of Europe where the natives refuse to reproduce and are being replaced by shantidoots from all over the world. Europe is rapidly heading towards a crisis point sometime within the next 25-30 yrs.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Apr 2022 22:29

^^^
Very true, the exact thoughts crossed may mind several times during the past few weeks.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Apr 2022 22:35

Oh wow wow wow...

UNGA to vote on Thursday to suspend Russia from UNHRC over Ukraine crisis

The office of the President of the UN General Assembly said that the Emergency Special Session of the 193-member UN body will resume on Thursday at 10 am and action is expected on the draft resolution to suspend Russia.

https://indianexpress.com/article/world ... s-7856814/

How can they do it without doing an independent UN investigation and debating based on the findings? Will be fun if the resolution fails to pass the vote.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 06 Apr 2022 22:43

Ambar wrote:Whether Russia is right or wrong or whether Ukrainians are just useful idiots in the hands of US/Europe, one thing this war has clearly demonstrated is how important it is to have demographics on your side. It is no secret that Russia for the last 3 decades has been steadily losing people, very low birth rates, emigration, deaths that exceeds replacement rate have all made it a aging, slowing nation. In the past Russia/USSR has always thrown hundreds of thousands of men and won bloody wars based on attrition, pretty similar to what Iran did with Iraq for 10 yrs. Now Russia no longer has enough fighting age young men to capture part of neighboring Ukraine let alone wage a total war deep into Europe. This will also be the future of Europe where the natives refuse to reproduce and are being replaced by shantidoots from all over the world. Europe is rapidly heading towards a crisis point sometime within the next 25-30 yrs.

Try extrapolating that onto India and it's even more precarious. India has the world's largest population of shantidoots and marxists who have in the past and will in the future willingly backstab her interests. Heck our entire system is filled with such folks unlike Russia.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Apr 2022 23:42

Shantidoots and Marxists will not survive if India is under threat. I'd be vigilant but not lose sleep.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 07 Apr 2022 00:00

Cyrano wrote:Oh wow wow wow...

UNGA to vote on Thursday to suspend Russia from UNHRC over Ukraine crisis

The office of the President of the UN General Assembly said that the Emergency Special Session of the 193-member UN body will resume on Thursday at 10 am and action is expected on the draft resolution to suspend Russia.
https://indianexpress.com/article/world ... s-7856814/

How can they do it without doing an independent UN investigation and debating based on the findings? Will be fun if the resolution fails to pass the vote.

THE UN bodies are a joke.
Iraq war - check
Libya war - check
Saudi assault on Yemen - Make Saudi a leader of UNHRC
Paki assault on minorities - check
Syria Invasion - check
Fake Bucha deaths- Sure let's kick Russia out.

It's just funny and puke inducing at the same time. I wish we could make fun of them on their face while casting a vote

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 07 Apr 2022 00:08

Haresh wrote:
kit wrote: This is the poisonous neocon mind set and the result of the Wolfowitz doctrine.

I am sure they have some thing similar planned for India and there is a similar report.

This is not new for US and Wolfowitz is one in a long line of neocons who preferred to meddle in global politics via regime changes to suit US needs.

kit · Post by **kit** » 07 Apr 2022 01:14

kit · Post by **kit** » 07 Apr 2022 01:16

Cyrano wrote:Shantidoots and Marxists will not survive if India is under threat. I'd be vigilant but not lose sleep.

India is sitting on a time bomb tbh

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 07 Apr 2022 01:45

Sitting on a time bomb while smoking a cigarette. One can literally see the change in demographics in every town, every neighborhood, every restaurant/supermarket. We also have no conscription, combine falling population with growing incomes, extremely slow modernization of military and weapons system and violent, radical neighbors and we end up with similar problems as Russia x 10 . Russia does not have many internal enemies, where as India will have to fight both a large internal and two and a half (an aggressive Bangladesh is only a matter of time) powerful external enemies with declining man power. Europe i feel has already reached a point of no return, in 25 to 30 yrs we may see many parts of europe become as violent and volatile as some African/Latin American countries.

kit · Post by **kit** » 07 Apr 2022 02:24

Ambar wrote: India will have to fight both a large internal and two and a half (an aggressive Bangladesh is only a matter of time) powerful external enemies with declining man power.

Europe probably deserves whats coming to them.. I hope Bharat gets a Modi XX when the time comes

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Apr 2022 02:53

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/06 ... e-executed

A video posted online on Monday and verified by The New York Times appears to show a group of Ukrainian soldiers killing captured Russian troops outside a village west of Kyiv.

how obvious & glaring war crimes by Ukr army must be to get fact checked by NYT

Maria · Post by **Maria** » 07 Apr 2022 10:32

IndraD wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/06 ... e-executed

A video posted online on Monday and verified by The New York Times appears to show a group of Ukrainian soldiers killing captured Russian troops outside a village west of Kyiv.

how obvious & glaring war crimes by Ukr army must be to get fact checked by NYT

This will harden the resolve of the Russian conscripts fighting.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 07 Apr 2022 10:41

Ambar wrote:Sitting on a time bomb while smoking a cigarette. One can literally see the change in demographics in every town, every neighborhood, every restaurant/supermarket. We also have no conscription, combine falling population with growing incomes, extremely slow modernization of military and weapons system and violent, radical neighbors and we end up with similar problems as Russia x 10 . Russia does not have many internal enemies, where as India will have to fight both a large internal and two and a half (an aggressive Bangladesh is only a matter of time) powerful external enemies with declining man power. Europe i feel has already reached a point of no return, in 25 to 30 yrs we may see many parts of europe become as violent and volatile as some African/Latin American countries.

Russia also has plenty of internal enemies. Shantidoots constitute anywhere between 10 and 15% of Russia. Just go to the Volga or southern Urals. Their Shantidoots are doing exactly what is happening here - taking over one block, one village, one town at a time, driving out the Russians. In fact, their situation is worse than ours, given that our overall TFR is still at roughly replacement rates, while theirs is below replacement. Europe is also hopelessly compromised ... The fall of parts of Europe is barely a couple of decades away.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Apr 2022 12:20

But somehow Putin can get Chechen militias to fight for them, and has their leader Ramzan Khadirov in his pocket.

This "peace fools will become an unmanageable threat" argument lies on the assumption of a perpetually dormant hindu society. The moment the majority draws clear lines around them and doesn't hesitate to use unrestricted force when they overstep, they fold tails and fall in line. Russia has shown how its done, France to a moderate extent - you just need to see the presidential election debates to realise how openly they are anti-peaceful. With none of the reaction that large parts of Indians scare themselves with.

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 07 Apr 2022 15:45

Cyrano wrote:Haresh, you dont need to quote the entire post to make a 2 line comment. Kindly edit your post. Thanks!

Done

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 07 Apr 2022 17:25

Wrong post

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 07 Apr 2022 17:25

My kafir phone is playing tricks.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 07 Apr 2022 19:03

Click on this link below and read this thread. Its a long one. WOW!

https://twitter.com/camilapress/status/ ... fvuuYclFMw ---> Three U.S. officials tell NBC News that U.S. claims based on “intelligence” on Russia were made up simply to “preempt the Russians”.

One U.S. official: “It doesn’t have to be solid intelligence when we talk about it..”

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 07 Apr 2022 19:19

Shanmukh wrote:
Ambar wrote:Sitting on a time bomb while smoking a cigarette. One can literally see the change in demographics in every town, every neighborhood, every restaurant/supermarket. We also have no conscription, combine falling population with growing incomes, extremely slow modernization of military and weapons system and violent, radical neighbors and we end up with similar problems as Russia x 10 . Russia does not have many internal enemies, where as India will have to fight both a large internal and two and a half (an aggressive Bangladesh is only a matter of time) powerful external enemies with declining man power. Europe i feel has already reached a point of no return, in 25 to 30 yrs we may see many parts of europe become as violent and volatile as some African/Latin American countries.
Russia also has plenty of internal enemies. Shantidoots constitute anywhere between 10 and 15% of Russia. Just go to the Volga or southern Urals. Their Shantidoots are doing exactly what is happening here - taking over one block, one village, one town at a time, driving out the Russians. In fact, their situation is worse than ours, given that our overall TFR is still at roughly replacement rates, while theirs is below replacement. Europe is also hopelessly compromised ... The fall of parts of Europe is barely a couple of decades away.

Along these lines, I had read one russ analyst 4-5 years ago talk about alarming rise in % growth of shantidoot pop, projected to reach 25-30% of pop in few decades. I had posted this several pages back. Russ pop rose by meager 2-3 million in 10 years. Reliable numbers aren’t available but one of the unusual prize of Winning Ukie waar could be winning eastern territory and few million white-russ-friendly-Christians-of-acceptable-denomination (so far less than 5 lakh moved to russ according to UN estimate, compared to 20 lakh in Poland and 7 lakh in Romania). All these people could end up in western EU. Plus acquisition of productive eastern territory, oil/gas, mining, pushing back Natho would be a bonus from their pov?

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 07 Apr 2022 19:35

Arnab Goswami of Republic TV conducting a 45 minute interview of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Apr 2022 20:23

Basically lies, fabrication and propaganda. The US is so ultra convinced its doing the right thing, it thinks it has the right to do anything. It used to be a bit sophisticated before, its just blatant in your face pig headed arrogance now.

skumar · Post by **skumar** » 07 Apr 2022 21:38

A side point that this war has proven was that all that talk about Russian influence on US elections through Social Media was all bs.

If Russia cannot defend itself on SM when it is threatened, how could it possibly influence US elections?

Incidents of Russians / affliated orgs posting on SM does not result in anything as we have seen.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 07 Apr 2022 22:12

You want arrogance, here's some arrogance.

Skirt-chasing Billu emerges from obscurity to tell us all why he expanded NATO during the 1990s (despite promises made to Gorbachev) and why, in fact, the current Ukraine war shows that he was doing the world a favour.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ne/629499/

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 07 Apr 2022 22:17

I know reading this thread that people tend to "choose sides" and cheer on their own participant in this war. But I did some reading to try and go back to the origin of this dispute and this is what I have found. It may not be entirely accurate but it is my take on it.

The Berlin Wall came down in November 1989, East Germany withdrew from the Warsaw Pact in October 1990 when East and West Germany were united and the remaining members of the Warsaw Pact dissolved the Pact in March 1991. However the former USSR was still a united entity as of March 1991. However there was a power struggle on between Gorbachev as General Secretary of the USSR and the institutions of the Supreme Soviet on the one hand and Boris Yeltsin representing the Russian Federation which was trying to take over Soviet state institutions primarily in the Russian Federation.

At the same time Gorbachev had the dialogue going on with the US about NATO expansion into the former East Bloc which would have been done under difficult circumstances given the chaos in the East Bloc as well as the battle for control of State institutions that Gorbachev was having with Yeltsin.

A vote was held among the Soviet republics at some time in 1991 where all Republics (other than Ukraine) voted to remain in a looser Federation where the foreign policy, the military and financial institutions/currency would remain common but the Republics would have a lot of leeway in other matters. However, my understanding is that Ukraine would consider joining such a Federation.

The turning point which spooked not only Ukraine but also the Baltic republics into declaring independence was the failed coup against Gorbachev by the hardliners in the CPSU who wanted the USSR to remain unchanged with the CPSU being the supreme authority. Clearly, having tasted the first whiff of freedom, some of the republics did not want to go back to an all controlling Soviet system. The attempted coup against Gorbachev when he was in his dacha in Crimea happened in mid August 1991 and in less than 10 days after that Ukraine declared independence in late August 1991. The Baltic republics declared independence at about the same time. Some say it was Yeltsin's inability to take control of Soviet State institutions in short order that also spooked the Republics. My reading is that Ukraine and the Baltic republics would have consented to remain as part of a liberalized Federation such as one led by Yeltsin but were totally opposed to a return to the former Soviet model. After the departure of Ukraine and the Baltic republics, the Asian republics were still willing to remain part of a larger Federation but my understanding is that the Russian Federation felt that without Ukraine the ethnic mix of the remaining Federation would not be overwhelmingly Slavic but would be a mixture of Slavic and Asian and hence did not want it and so the Asian republics were left free to go their own way but bound by CSTO etc.

The first formal diplomatic recognition of Ukraine happened on December 2, 1991. The first countries to recognize Ukraine were Poland, Canada and incredibly Russia. Russia recognized Ukraine more than 3 weeks ahead of the US!!

In that chaos Gorbachev did not take the elementary precaution of codifying the understanding with the US about non expansion of NATO into a formal treaty. Such a treaty if signed would have ensured that the Russian Federation as the successor State to the USSR would have been the inheritor of that treaty. Just as happened with START, INF and all the other treaties signed by the former USSR. Gorbachev's lack of follow up for such a treaty is one of the reasons that Putin blames him. But in fairness Putin is Yeltsin's hand picked successor and it was under Yeltsin that Russia was among the first 3 countries that recognized Ukraine. So for Putin to now claim that Ukraine is not a real country goes against Russia's own recognition of Ukraine as a sovereign country.

So did Putin have legitimate security concerns about NATO expansion specially into Ukraine. IMO he did. And he attempted to redress those security concerns via this invasion. But it has backfired and Russia is paying the economic price and isolation as a result. Legally what Russia is doing is wrong. It is invading a country more than 30 years after that country was formed and recognized by Russia itself.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Apr 2022 22:33

ldev wrote:Arnab Goswami of Republic TV conducting a 45 minute interview of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

this seems to be his India outreach campaign where he continues to be unpopular. Arnab is not saint he used to be after MVA hounded him over coal and can be taken to side for a price.
More i views of him on Indian channels for sure in pipeline.

kit · Post by **kit** » 07 Apr 2022 22:40

Did legalities matter when the reigning superpowah went about destroying nearly 10 different countries over the past decade, at least one conflict per president chasing illusory wmds and what not ?

The short answer is a resounding NO.

Geopolitics has returned to the basic cave man mode, might is right. The solution to news and situational awareness is now narratives..and enforced one's.

Is there any scope for justice or human values or let's just say basic human decency in such a system ?

No

Is there a solution? .. maybe not in the short term. Smaller countries need big brothers to look after them even for basic sustenance for their population. We can all discuss till Kingdom come for all the nuances but there is no escaping the truth. Just realism. Keep your cards close.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Apr 2022 22:47

Rudradev wrote:You want arrogance, here's some arrogance.

Skirt-chasing Billu emerges from obscurity to tell us all why he expanded NATO during the 1990s (despite promises made to Gorbachev) and why, in fact, the current Ukraine war shows that he was doing the world a favour.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ne/629499/

thanks for the link sir! Bill says Baltic states wanted the freedom from Russia, and it was not otherwise. Clearly a rebuttal on this from Russian side would be nice!

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 07 Apr 2022 22:57

It looks like with the war dragging out and Russia withdrawing from Kiev, NATO and Ukraine have been bolstered even further to double up.

Latest peace deal offered by Ukraine doesn't contain the security guarantees for crimea which were there before.

Also, Blinken telling that Ukraine will win the war
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... t8Tyg&s=19

US will make sure Ukraine doesn't agree for a peace deal.

Russia will have to really up the ante on violence, if they need to have a chance for a peace deal with Ukraine.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Apr 2022 22:59

Russia removed from UN HR council. Red voted in favour of Russia, green against.
India, Africa, mostly, Gulf abstained

skumar · Post by **skumar** » 07 Apr 2022 23:06

ldev wrote:...
So for Putin to now claim that Ukraine is not a real country goes against Russia's own recognition of Ukraine as a sovereign country.

So did Putin have legitimate security concerns about NATO expansion specially into Ukraine. IMO he did. And he attempted to redress those security concerns via this invasion. But it has backfired and Russia is paying the economic price and isolation as a result. Legally what Russia is doing is wrong. It is invading a country more than 30 years after that country was formed and recognized by Russia itself.

+1 There is a lot that happened between 2000 and now as well.

Of course what Putin is saying is rubbish. Ukraine has been a country for decades now. No one can claim otherwise.

Putin has seen Yeltsin begging with the West (https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.u ... how/101778) and he is determined not to go down that path.

Legally, no one gives a damn. What is "legally"? International law as defined by bilateral / multilateral treaties and some articles of UN? IR, esp Article 51 of UN, has been used like toilet paper so often that no one takes it seriously. Might is right allows you to write the law and it is the only "law" that works.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 07 Apr 2022 23:08

China voted against. India abstained. GOI has made the strategic decision.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 08 Apr 2022 00:04

Raja wrote:China voted against. India abstained. GOI has made the strategic decision.

Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia & Indonesia abstained too.