Russian / Ukranian Combat Tactics

[mody]

Reportedly 2 Neptune missiles struck the ship caused the fire that cooked off some ammo. Still reflects very badly on Russia and a major success for Ukraine.

[ShivS]

The Neptune is basically a modernized version of the Harpoon.

Neptune is an Ukrainian moderinzation of Kh-35 Uran...not Harpoon...and it entered service only around May 2021

For what it’s worth the Uran is called the Harpoonski

It was based on the Harpoon’s performance but that’s not the point. All these babies, Harpoon, Uran, Neptune, Exocet have some common features:

1. Large - 5 mts plus in length, and 40-50 cm in diameter with large fins.

2. Subsonic with an approach speed of 8 -10 km per minute.

3. Active radar terminal guidance

4. No data linking for course correction

All these vessels were designed to counter these missiles - their sensors, ECM and weapons were built with this class of ASM in mind - how could 2 such missiles defeat all those measures?

A pair of missiles launched 150 km away anticipate the course of the Moskva perfectly and land up where it was steaming - then they acquire it with their active radars (some distance away) and home in with no detection by the close quarters radar systems or the ECM (which should have detected the active radar) and kill the ship. Incredible.

The missiles should have struggled to track the path of the ship unless it was on a non manouvering course, been detected by radar (rain can degrade performance but these are massive chunks of metal with large fins) and in the terminal phase the ECM should have caught the active radar.

The missiles are non manouvering so even if detected 10/15 kms away the SAM and CIWS should have knocked them out of the sky fairly easily. These are the precise class of threats these defensive systems were designed to defeat.

It can’t be true, because it can’t be true, but did we just see the first use of a AGM 158 C LRSAM? The explosive content would also be 2.5-3X times a Neptune. The Moskva would have stood no chance.

[Pratyush]

It can’t be true, because it can’t be true, but did we just see the first use of a AGM 158 C LRSAM? The explosive content would also be 2.5-3X times a Neptune. The Moskva would have stood no chance.

Why will it not be Neptune?

Why does it have to be AGM 158?

Why are you discounting training of crew?

Why are you discounting ammunition cook off?

Why are you discounting servicability of the on board equipment?

Why do you believe that Ukrainian military could not have found a weaknesses of the system. Because after all Ukrainian military inherited and still operate the S300 missiles?

[John]

John,

The S300 is designed to deal with a saturation 360 attack.

You are the first one to have discribed it's navalised application as a 180 system. Regardless of the fact it being a land based system being adapted to sea based application. It's not going to lose half of the direction it can protect it self against. The radar and the fire direction system can rotate and they will provide 360 capacity.

Please provide source which states that it is a system that only provides protection in one quadrant.

S-300 wasn’t designed for saturation attacks it was designed to provide long range air defense and is part of layered air defense. There later variant that added newer components and missile to better deal with saturation attacks (RIF is based on earlier variant of S-300F).

In fact I believe S-350 which was codeveloped by Korea was designed from ground up to deal with saturation attacks without the need for other air defense systems. Anyway Auspower has very good write up on S-300P which is actually newer than S-300F:

In US terminology, the double digit S-300P series and S-300V systems represent anti-access capabilities - designed to make it unusually difficult if not impossible to project air power into defended airspace. The B-2A and F-22A were both developed with these threat systems in mind, and are still considered to be the only US systems capable of robustly defeating these weapons. The technique for defeating them is a combination of wideband all aspect stealth and highly sensitive radio-frequency ESM receivers, combined with offboard sources of near-realtime Intelligence Surveillance Reconaissance (ISR) data on system locations.

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Grumble-Gargoyle.html

This article talks about same thing, I know we all want Soviet weaponry to be super duper but everything has its limits and this 40+ year old ship. Ironically I remember discussing this point over a decade ago back during Philip we should all this buy this Russian Cruiser arguments.

https://www.navylookout.com/russian-cru ... lications/

The distinctive dome-shaped 3R41 Volna fire control radar for the S-300F has only a 180º field of view and is antiquated when compared with Western equivalents.

Tweet on this as well https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... Bu5mDidzuA

[Pratyush]

Nothing about what you have posted suggest that the antenna it self cannot rotate 360.

[John]

Nothing about what you have posted suggest that the antenna it self cannot rotate 360.

It says right there it has only 180 degree field of vision because the super structure is blocking the front field of vision. If you want 360 degree field of vision like Mr-800 has you need to place it on top of the mast.

[brar_w]

Still makes no sense.

1) Why will Russians design and install a radar without any 360 rotation capacity. Not even TSP is so stupid to build something that is so deliberately limited to just one hemisphere.

2) Kirov having 2 just means that it has more fire control channels available as compared to a Slava. That's logical in larger scheme of things as Slava was designed to be a cheaper counter part to Kirov. But limiting it's anti air to aft 180 of the ship is a misleading conclusion.

The US Navy equivalent was the Tico and early Burke. Ticos had 4 designators as compared to 3 for Burke's. While using the same basic radar sets.

What John is getting at is that the 3P41 has a field of view limitation. Because the radar also serves as the illuminator, any ship structure caused obstruction will practically limit its ability to guide missiles 360 degrees even though it may be physically capable of operating in rotator mode or rotate to orient to a particular sector. Since there isn't another volna on this ship, when the sole radar could have been oriented towards a sector (which it most likely was given where the threat was likely to come from given it was possibly providing an air-defense bubble over land), it loses the ability to detect and fire control due to this blind spot.

This is different from the US AEGIS ships, where the SPY-1 radars act as search and tracking radar and has a radar face oriented towards each sector, and with the semi-active SM-2 missile, also provides the midcourse update to the missile before handing it off to the CW illuminators (X-band AN/SPG-62/MK99 system) for the brief terminal phase of the missile engagement. On the cruisers, each radar face essentially has its own CW illuminator while three such terminal illuminators exist on the destroyers. Of course with the arrival of the SM-6, (and now the ESSM II, and even the SM-2 - active), there is more flexibility in engagements since there you have option to use or not use the illuminators (preserves older semi-active hardware but also adds active seeker) at all.

Notice where the radar is and how it would need to illuminate in sectors that are obstructed by ship structure. If you look at stock videos from its various exercises over the years, you'll see that the Volna is often oriented to a particular sector, while the search radar is the one constantly rotating and scanning all sectors.



So why was it incapable of overcoming a maximum of 2 (even the Ukranians aren't claiming more than 2) subsonic cruise missiles ? There are lots of reasons including the one theory doing the rounds on social media of the TB-2 acting as a decoy (though this is unsubstantiated like most TB-2 stories) or basic crew ineptitude. How often does the Russian Navy put its crews through live fire exercises? Using real world targets? Not sure but this could have been one reason (Note the number of MSLEX's US Navy crews go through with carrier deployments).

Another factor is readiness and sustainment challenges. The S-300F is only one of several ship systems on board that include a Fire Control radar, search radars, 3D radars, short range CIWS and associated combat system and sensors. Given a 40-day war, and assuming a 90% availability (10% down-time) for some of these older systems you are looking at 4 days worth of time when such systems may be down for maintaince. So how many systems were 100% at the moment would be one consideration as with older ships, and particularly the dated tech on these there would most definitely be availability and sustainment challenges given that Russian Navy rarely deploys on long duration cruises.

[John]

Thanks Brar it was better stated than my explanation.

A Ukranian Su-24 was shot down by Izyum as I suspected earlier UAF has been conducting bombing runs on Russian convoy in north east shows the threat latter still posses on Russian land forces.

[Pratyush]

Brar, I have gone through the numbers of radars available on the ship.

The fire control radar might have some limitations because of the front super structure. But that is not 180 degree. That blind spot is going to under 10 degree at the most and not 180 degree. Which is what was implied and was the point of contention.

Having said that, the 3d search radar on the ship MR 800 should be able to see the threat and a 5 degree course change will compensate for any blind spot in the fire control radar.

Rest of your points, I have been saying pretty much the same thing since early morning.

[brar_w]

Brar, I have gone through the numbers of radars available on the ship.

The fire control radar might have some limitations because of the front super structure. But that is not 180 degree. That blind spot is going to under 10 degree at the most and not 180 degree. Which is what was implied and was the point of contention.

Having said that, the 3d search radar on the ship MR 800 should be able to see the threat and a 5 degree course change will compensate for any blind spot in the fire control radar.

Rest of your points, I have been saying pretty much the same thing since early morning.

The FCR has a field of view. Even if it is rotating (which may not be the case), it has a blind spot as is clearly visible using eyes. How much that is remains up for debate (they’ve clearly added another radar in subsequent iterations to compensate for this) but by simply looking, one can clearly see how it would struggle to generate beams on a low flying / sea skimming cruise missile that transits its blind spot that is obstructed by massive ship structures. The 3D radar is mounted higher and rotates and thus has unobstructed view. But it cannot illuminate so the combat system still needs the FCR to guide interceptors to target by using its illumination feature. Detecting and tracking sea skimming subsonic cruise missiles is a challenging task especially at close range and the search radar might find that challenging to put it mildly. Notice that the USN augments its SPY-1 and even the upcoming SPY-6 radars with a dedicated X band radar that is just scanning the horizon for low flying sea skimming threats and is optimized for low flying threats and clutter. This is a serious threat that has grown to a point that it demands dedicated sensor tasking even if you have such powerful AESA radars like the SPY-6.



To state it in simple terms, all those other radars they you’ve gone through don’t appear to have the ability to illluminate incoming targets for the long range missiles that the FCR guides so having them serves the purpose of providing LR surveillance for the CS, or air other short range systems but the FCR is what provides the guidance if you want to engage using the S-300 missiles. Comparing it to the US systems which you brought up is also difficult because legacy AEGIS employs a fundamentally different architecture, one which has a dedicated SPY-1 array for each sector that can handle detection, tracking and even mid course updates for SM-2 missile with terminal illumination provided by multiple stand alone X band CW illuminators (each SPY-1 array getting its own illuminators on a cruise with four SPY-1 arrays sharing three illuminators on the destroyers).

[John]

I question the Russian decision not to upgrade the air defense system of the ship I remember reading about upgrade plans in 00s. Which updated Rif to Rif-M which replaces 3R41 Top Dome with Tombstone, replaces Osa with Kinzhal (which would provide better coverage for its blind spot and interception of Ashm ) and also fits Kashtan-M1 in place of Ak-630.

[ldev]

I question the Russian decision not to upgrade the air defense system of the ship I remember reading about upgrade plans in 00s. Which updated Rif to Rif-M which replaces 3R41 Top Dome with Tombstone, replaces Osa with Kinzhal (which would provide better coverage for its blind spot and interception of Ashm ) and also fits Kashtan-M1 in place of Ak-630.

For the Russians the tragedy is that they sold 2 Rif-M units to China way back in 2002 but were unable/unwilling to upgrade their own ships. China has iteratively improved them for 2 successive generations.

[ldev]

The FCR has a field of view. Even if it is rotating (which may not be the case), it has a blind spot as is clearly visible using eyes.

Social media posts indicate that the radar cannot rotate and the ship has to be re-positioned for the radar to get a different FOV. So it's 180 degrees at any one time. Don't know how accurate this information is.

[brar_w]

The FCR has a field of view. Even if it is rotating (which may not be the case), it has a blind spot as is clearly visible using eyes.

Social media posts indicate that the radar cannot rotate and the ship has to be re-positioned for the radar to get a different FOV. So it's 180 degrees at any one time. Don't know how accurate this information is.

That may very well be the case. Most stock videos of the ship launching missiles etc has the radar fixed and oriented towards a particular threat sector with the search radar in rotator mode.

[ldev]

It can’t be true, because it can’t be true, but did we just see the first use of a AGM 158 C LRSAM? The explosive content would also be 2.5-3X times a Neptune. The Moskva would have stood no chance.

Harry S Truman in the Adriatic sea with Superhornets which are capable of carrying LRASMs. Launch over the Aegean, Greek airspace, Bulgarian airspace, Romanian airspace and come in SW/SSW with ship radar pointing the wrong direction but unlikely to engage even if pointed in the right direction with stealth features, sea skimming approach, ECCM etc. Tom Clancy stuff!!

[Cyrano]

Pentagon briefing said they can't be sure Moskva was hit by cruise missiles...

[John]

Pentagon briefing said they can't be sure Moskva was hit by cruise missiles...

That was yesterday they confirmed today it was hit by 2 Ukranian missile.

https://twitter.com/afp/status/15150021 ... iF-RLtZlfw

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... gon-2022-4

[brar_w]

Pentagon briefing said they can't be sure Moskva was hit by cruise missiles...

That was yesterday they confirmed today it was hit by 2 Ukranian missile.

https://twitter.com/afp/status/15150021 ... iF-RLtZlfw

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... gon-2022-4

Also worth noting that a Global Hawk (usual orbit) was seen in the Black Sea immediately following reports of the Moskva under fire so they would have been able to get a good track on the efforts to save and possibly tug her back.

https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1514588821819588610

It was based on the Harpoon’s performance but that’s not the point. All these babies, Harpoon, Uran, Neptune, Exocet have some common features:

1. Large - 5 mts plus in length, and 40-50 cm in diameter with large fins.

2. Subsonic with an approach speed of 8 -10 km per minute.

3. Active radar terminal guidance

4. No data linking for course correction

Harpoon Block II+ has a data-link (plus GPS upgrades). The USN has upgraded a couple of hundred of older Harpoons to the block II+ configuration.

[brar_w]

Satellite Image Pinpoints Russian Cruiser Moskva As She Burned

Analysis of radar satellite imagery of the northern Black Sea on April 13, appears to pinpoint the stricken ship. Other vessels are seen in attendance. The location of the event can now, for the first time, be given coordinates.

A ship matching Moskva’s size and situation is seen at 45°10’43.39″N, 30°55’30.54″E. This position is east of Snake Island, 80 nautical miles from Odesa and 50 nautical miles from the Ukrainian coast. The satellite passed at 6.52pm local time. Based on analysis by multiple people, we are confident that this shows Moskva’s final hours..

Because of the nature of the low-resolution radar satellite imagery we cannot be certain of the identification. But it matches and, following second opinions, we now have confidence that this is it.
The location is also very close to where the ship was sighted on April 12 in satellite imagery..

[ManuJ]

BTW, the Pentagon spokesman in an interview to PBS a few days ago said very clearly that some European countries are quietly supplying aircrafts to Ukraine, and Ukraine has more aircraft today than it did at the start of war.

[ShivS]

Tom Clancy indeed

The Moskva was preventing the evacuation of the NATO senior command trapped at Mariupol and had to go! No doubt about it...

Jokes apart, if the Ukrainians took it out using a Neptune then they ran a superb operation and are to be complimented on it. An accident should not be discounted either.

[Manish_Sharma]

It seems like repeat of JDAM attack on chinese embassy in Belgrade 1999 which humiliated china and showed them their place that "we can hit your embassy at will but you can't hit ours for the fear of what we will do to you; so suck it up."
Americans have hit Moskva and sunk it while jeering to Russkies "look we sunk your premier Missile Cruiser and there is nothing that you can do about it. Now bring out those nukes if you have guts because in conventional war you are panting against Ukraine so you have no chance against us."

[Cyrano]

That the Russians will do nothing about it is a big assumption. They can, and will. Suits NATO with wants to climb the escalatory ladder and increase the stakes in this poker game, and bring in more chips than Ukraine and its people.

[Manish_Sharma]

Eager to see what tactics / retaliation Russkies have up their sleeve.

[John]

Russia still hasn’t acknowledged the losses from Saratov was a result of hostile action and total toll and likely won’t do the same with Moskva as well.

[Deans]

Tom Clancy indeed

The Moskva was preventing the evacuation of the NATO senior command trapped at Mariupol and had to go! No doubt about it...

Jokes apart, if the Ukrainians took it out using a Neptune then they ran a superb operation and are to be complimented on it. An accident should not be discounted either.

It was hit about 80km off Odessa (reasonably credible satellite images of the location) and around 50km from the nearest coast. It could not have been in the Mariupol area because any ship leaving the sea of Azov has to cross the Kerch Strait (between Crimea and Russia) where both sides are Russia dominated. It would be simpler for Russia to place warships at the strait (which they probably have).

[Deans]

Coverage from Russian channels in the past 2 days:
1. Air & missile strikes on Kiev & Kharkiv along with oil refineries and armaments plants. Lot of fires raging & explosions in real time.
2. Flag planted in the centre of Mariupol. RA says the city is taken barring the last holdouts at the Azov Steel plant. More footage of prisoners taken(few dozens at a time).
3. Russia also says NATO is providing ex Soviet era aircraft, which explains the 3 they claimed to have shot down in the last 2 days.
4. First use of US supplied suicide drones reported.
5. TU-22M strategic bombers seen (TV footage) for the first time.
6. Long convoys in Russia, going to the front (both road and train). Lot of talk of the impending Donbass offensive. Artillery is softening up positions before that.

[Atmavik]

The Turks are using the conflict to promote there arms industry, social media is flooded by Turks of Russian losses

[John]

The Turks are using the conflict to promote there arms industry, social media is flooded by Turks of Russian losses

Given most of Ukr vids showcase Artillery/mrl hits and Stugna kills or aftermath selfies what does Turks gain from that? You can make case it’s show case of Ukrainian arms industry (seen their in house UAVs, guided MRLs, artillery, BTR-4 and ATGM )

I agree that Turkish arms was showcase of Azerbaijan-Armenian conflict but definitely not here. In fact TB2 footage is all but absent even Russians have noted TB2 being used but Ukr hasn’t released any vids.

[brar_w]

Interesting US Government contract award to Aerovironment (maker of loitering munitions and small drones). Puma drones with a contract completion date of late May 2022 (so basically delivering on a $19 Million small UAV contract in one month). I suspect these will be used in conjunction with the 155 mm artillery that has been also included in the latest arms transfer to Ukraine which could possibly feature some PGK kits as well.

[ShivS]

Deans - it was a joke. I don’t believe NATO senior command is trapped in Mariupol.

Brar - this is the combination that will see more employment- tactical drones and long range artillery interdiction.

We used to work with a effective horizon of 4-5 km. Even if that grows to 10-15 km the role of heavy guns combined with precision strike ammunition expands significantly, especially against armour. Long range SPG, drones and precision strike - very powerful.

[Deans]

Brar - this is the combination that will see more employment- tactical drones and long range artillery interdiction.

We used to work with a effective horizon of 4-5 km. Even if that grows to 10-15 km the role of heavy guns combined with precision strike ammunition expands significantly, especially against armour. Long range SPG, drones and precision strike - very powerful.

There's a lot of Russian video coverage of their drones facilitating artillery strikes.

[Cyrano]

From a pro Russian SM channel:
"Putin has ordered the destruction of the Starlink satellite constellation

Dmitry Medvedev - said that in order to ensure the security of all units participating in the special military operation, the Supreme Commander was ordered to destroy the Starlink satellite installation located above the territory of the Russian Federation, the military operation zone and the Black Sea basin.

[brar_w]

We will see when they actually start blowing up dozens of satellites in space and out pace SX’s ability to put them up because if they do something as boneheaded as that SX will begin to get government funding to put up replacement satellites thus accelerating the entire constellation.

Meanwhile, Russian media is claiming that they’ve lost Maj. Gen. Vladimir Frolov at the hands of Ukrainian army.

https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1 ... X3o7-Ik3eQ

[Cyrano]

Russia may not be looking that far ahead, immediate threat reduction is their priority now.

Wonder what international conventions govern space usage in peace time and during conflicts.

Russia may not care either way to take out space assets of a private company of a hostile nation actively helping its enemy and putting its soldiers under increased risk.

[Cyrano]

Briefing by Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov as of 7 p.m. on April 16, 2022 on the progress of the special operation in Ukraine

During the day, high-precision airborne missiles hit 15 enemy targets.

Among them: six places of concentration of Ukrainian military equipment and seven strongpoints of Ukrainian troops were destroyed in the areas of BARVENKOVO, RUBEZHNOYE, POPASNAYA, NOVOZVANOVKA, KRASNOARMEYSK, SELIDOVO and NOVOBAKHMUTOVKA settlements.

As a result of the strikes, more than 320 Ukrainian servicemen were killed and wounded, 23 armored vehicles and seven vehicles of various purposes were destroyed.

Operational-tactical aviation destroyed 67 areas of concentration of personnel and Ukrainian military equipment during the day.

Missile forces hit 317 military facilities, including: 274 strongholds and areas of concentration of enemy manpower, 24 command posts and two field fuel storage facilities of Ukrainian troops.

Russian air defenses near ODESSA shot down a Ukrainian military transport aircraft delivering a large shipment of weapons supplied to Ukraine by Western countries.

Two Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down over the settlements of LOZOVA and VESELAYA.

A total of 134 aircraft, 460 unmanned aerial vehicles, 246 surface-to-air missile systems, 2,269 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 252 multiple rocket launchers, 987 field artillery guns and mortars, and 2,158 special military vehicles have been destroyed since the start of the special military operation.

The entire city territory of MARIUPOL has been completely cleared of fighters of the Nazi formation Azov, foreign mercenaries and Ukrainian troops.

The remnants of the Ukrainian group are now completely blocked on the territory of the Azovstal metallurgical plant. Their only chance to save their lives is to voluntarily lay down their arms and surrender.

Let me remind you that at the time of its encirclement on March 11, Ukrainian forces in Mariupol: the 36th Independent Marines Brigade, the 109th Territorial Defense Brigade, the 503rd Independent Marines Battalion, a company of the 53rd Independent Mechanized Brigade, units of the 17th Antitank Brigade, the Nazi Azov, Aidar and Right Sector groups, police and state border guard units, as well as foreign mercenaries.

The total number of this grouping was about 8,100 people.

During the liberation of Mariupol, 1,464 Ukrainian servicemen already surrendered. The number of those surrendering is increasing daily. This includes those who escaped from the territory of Azovstal. According to their accounts, the total number of Ukrainian servicemen, Nazis and foreign mercenaries who took refuge at Azovstal does not exceed 2,500.

Thereby, as of April 16, the losses of the Ukrainian grouping in MARIUPOL alone amounted to more than 4,000 people.

Therefore, Zelensky's recent statements to the Western media that the irrecoverable losses of the Ukrainian military during the operation allegedly amount to 2.5-3 thousand is a common lie for him.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has reliable data on the true losses of the Ukrainian army, National Guard and arriving foreign mercenaries, which Zelensky is afraid to tell the people of Ukraine.

As of today, Ukrainian irretrievable losses amount to 23,367.

We will soon publish separate data from Ukrainian documents about their losses, revealing the place of death and burial sites of the dead.

Source: https://t.me/rian_ru/158998

It's a telegram channel, direct access is blocked by most others and MSM is maintaining a total black out since many weeks now.

[brar_w]

Russia may not be looking that far ahead, immediate threat reduction is their priority now.

Wonder what international conventions govern space usage in peace time and during conflicts.

Russia may not care either way to take out space assets of a private company of a hostile nation actively helping its enemy and putting its soldiers under increased risk.

As I said, let’s see if they can and actually do ( SX now had the capacity to do a launch a week and can put up nearly four dozen SL per launch) something about it and bring heat upon their commercial space efforts (if they have any). Some may even recall the threat to the ISS that came out of their space boss a month or so ago. Still waiting on that .

https://futurism.com/dmitry-rogozin-space-debris/amp

[Megh]

From a pro Russian SM channel:
"Putin has ordered the destruction of the Starlink satellite constellation

Dmitry Medvedev - said that in order to ensure the security of all units participating in the special military operation, the Supreme Commander was ordered to destroy the Starlink satellite installation located above the territory of the Russian Federation, the military operation zone and the Black Sea basin.

News was published on fake site https://www.er-duma.ru/
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admin-contact: https://active.domains/whoisfb/er-duma.ru
created: 2022-03-22T16:21:11Z
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Info war in action

[Amber G.]

Sharing an interesting thread From Mark Hertling ( Retired General - served ~40 years in US Army) about the strategic & operational details of the Moskva sinking. Some details and view points..

Link https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status ... DYHtt8uMrA

very big deal for a variety of reasons:--- MORE than a simple matter of a couple of missiles hitting a ship that was a great distance away.
- strategically important.
- Apart from flagship of the Black Sea Fleet - ship was also the flagship during the 2008 invasion in Georgia - Here was tasked to provide overall Fleet C2 (command and control), Air Defense (it is filled with different ADA systems), and it would have discharged Naval Infantry (Marines) during a planned amphib assault on the shores near Odesa.
As Putin revised his plan for "eastern & southern attacks" after failing to take Kyiv, the seizure of the Black Sea coast (& perhaps the continued attack toward Transnistria in Moldova) was likely part of the "new" plan.

(Some other points:

Russia/Putin should NOT take this sinking as a singular event.

Let's add the Moskva sinking to other failures:
-The destruction of the Russian Parachute Regiment (the famed "palace guard" VDV/Spetznaz) north of Kyiv during the first week of the war.
-The loss of at least 7 generals & an unlimited number of Colonel Commanders of key Combined Arms Armies and Tank/Motorized Rifle Units.
-The increasing number of Russian soldiers (mostly conscripts) killed in action (Ukraines count is now 20,000...and that's likely conservative).
-The destruction of over 700 tanks and literally hundreds of other armored vehicles during the first 50 days
-The inability of the Russian Air Force to provide close air support to Russian ground troops or deep strikes against Ukrainian forces due to fear of UA air defense
-Russians communicating using unencrypted devices that leads to intelligence leaks
-Ukraine Army helicopters conducting a cross-border operations into Belgorod to destroy multiple fuel tanks
-UA special operations striking behind Russian lines against key logistics targets.
-RU failure to resupply/medically evacuate their troops

[Megh]

https://youtu.be/uyrDHE3ZyzM
Surviving crew members "Moskva" cruiser.