Russian / Ukranian Combat Tactics

[Cain Marko]

How long do you think the Bangladesh war would've lasted if NATO was allowed a free hand to interfere without Russian counter movements? Ukraine is much bigger, has a well prepped and dug in defensive position and the Russians are trying their darndest not to destroy civilian infra.

Precisely my point. If Russia had indeed achieved it's military objective within 7 days NATO would not have had a chance to intervene and launch it's support operations. The fact that it could not amplify's my point about the inept Russian conduct of the war. That speed was a pre-requisite to conclude the operation before outside interference could happen was a lesson that India was very aware off and hence the speed with which East Pakistan was put down.

Speed was a factor, no doubt. But hardly the crucial one IMHO. The other was the FSU. still another was the muktibahini. The latter two the Russians don't have... Local support + the might of the ussr. As such Russia showed plenty of speed in it's initial moves, but can do precious little vs outside interference.

[bala]

If you think that having NATO nukes on your territory is the "point of joining NATO" then perhaps there's a problem with your understanding of NATO, and its strategic deterrent and how it is exercised. There are more NATO members that don't house nukes than those that do (about five nations at this time).
NATO has no land based nuclear delivery systems.

Saar I am reminded by the phrase "Clever by Half" in all such maneuvers. The underlying causes are greed, ambition, power projection. Does not matter the nuance. There is a thin line between defence and offence doctrines and one can transition easily from one to another. Nato creeping up progressively is why Russia is at war with Ukraine. Very simple, know? The reaction time is a worry for both sides and they will do whatever it takes. No amount of theory is going to explain that away.

[ldev]

Speed was a factor, no doubt. But hardly the crucial one IMHO. The other was the FSU. still another was the muktibahini. The latter two the Russians don't have... Local support + the might of the ussr. As such Russia showed plenty of speed in it's initial moves, but can do precious little vs outside interference.

Russian failings in this war are numerous and detailed in the prior pages of this thread. The Russians did have local support in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas (ala Mukti Bahini), if they had stuck to a modest plan of creating a land bridge from Crimea to the border and capturing what is being called the Donetsk People's Republic, they would have probably achieved their objective in 2 weeks or less, long before NATO mobilized it's support operations. Instead they launched a multi pronged invasion with inadequate forces all over Ukraine. As they say the eye is greedier than the stomach.

After the Moskva sinking I was reading up on the Neptune anti ship missile. As early as January 2021 there were reports of the missile being under production for the first division and that it has a range of ~300 km, that it could actually target ships in Sevastopol harbor from near Odessa. The Ukranians had developed a new domestic radar homing seeker for the missile with a FOV of 120 degrees and a range of 50 km. The missile flew most of it's trajectory at "several meters" above sea level, only popping up briefly to a "couple of hundred meters" when it's seeker was within range and then back down to the deck. Even without a data link, accurate information on the location of the Moskva was enough to target the ship. What were the Russians thinking? That they were invincible? The only saving grace for the Russians is that very few production examples of the missile were produced before the war started and most likely the factory has since been destroyed by Russia.

[brar_w]

Neither Finland, nor Sweden would have been discussing NATO membership, or been weeks from putting in their official papers, even 3 months ago. Something must have happened that triggered this.

Maybe some intelligence chatter about Russian contingency plans for an invasion of Finland.....Norway cannot be protected if Finland and Sweden are occupied by Russia. But Finland and Sweden joining NATO will put Russia on a nuclear hair trigger alert. St. Petersberg, Russia's 2nd city is just 150 km from the Finnish border and Severomorsk near Murmansk where Russia's Northern Fleet is based is barely 100 km from the Swedish border

Maybe. Or perhaps it was the scene of BTG's rolling in towards Kyiv from Belarus that made a 5 million population of Finland reconsider its stance on neutrality and its wishful thinking that bi-lateral cooperation and mil-mil relations with other NATO and non NATO democracies can alone ensure its security (and that a mutual pact was the next step that it needed). We're just guessing at this point.

You may have a point. Let's hope Russia is no more than a Pakistan that keeps going on and on about it's nukes.

Setting aside the rhetoric from SM, and those who may not have any role in the nuclear decision making, Russia has and continues to be a responsible nuclear power. That probably won't change anytime soon despite of whatever ego is bruised within the political apparatus there. This means that nukes will be a matter of last response used against NATO in case of an all out war and a direct threat of NATO taking over Russian territory. This is why the threat of hightened nuclear posture due to Sweden/Finland joining NATO is going to largely be ignored by those nations and NATO when deciding to join or accept.

[brar_w]

Saar I am reminded by the phrase..

My point was entirely about the claim that was made that the entire point of joining NATO would be to have its nukes based there. As can be clearly seen based on NATO's current posture, only about five of the dozens of European member states actually house NATO nukes (not originating from those countries) so we can dispel with that notion. It is a defensive security alliance and the point of joining or remaining in it is to seek the security that this provides not some ambition to house nukes. In fact Finland is likely to pursue the model adopted by Denmark in that they will not seek out, or have permanent NATO troop presence on their soil. Again, it is about the broader security and not just one thing about nukes etc.

[bala]

^^ Yes all those are great. But we are at War because of it, this does not escape anyone, certainly not me. Joining NATO is not going to help in defensive security or deterrent, tis a myth and the quicker nations in Euro realize the better. Russia is going to have its way with Ukraine no matter what.

[brar_w]

tis a myth and the quicker nations in Euro realize the better.

They seem to have experts and make their own calculations so I suppose they've made the determination that it does provide them security. So your point of view is definitely being completely ignored by those with any sort of decision making authority in Finland, Sweden and a whole host of other countries now beefing up their contribution towards NATO's preparedness. Neither the SU, and nor the post Soviet Union collapse Russia that emerged from its ashes, has attacked NATO despite your claim here. So unless this happens the folks making the security argument seem to have a point which seems to be grounded in reality.

[bala]

completely ignored by those with any sort of decision making authority in Finland, Sweden

Yes, that is why we have wars to decide. And as corollary south american nations will be housing nukes, the asymmetrical factor.

[brar_w]

completely ignored by those with any sort of decision making authority in Finland, Sweden

Yes, that is why we have wars to decide.

NATO and Russia have never gone to war, and the same was true for any FSU and NATO conflict. Let's get back to your reasoning once that status changes.

[bala]

NATO and Russia have never gone to war, and the same was true for any FSU and NATO conflict. Let's get back to your reasoning once that status changes.

Are not NATO nations supplying weapons and stealth people in this war? Tis breaking all your reasoning so far.

[brar_w]

NATO and Russia have never gone to war, and the same was true for any FSU and NATO conflict. Let's get back to your reasoning once that status changes.

Are not NATO nations supplying weapons and stealth people in this war? Tis breaking all your reasoning so far.

The sides have never ever been in direct conflict despite there being plenty of proxy involvement and weapon supplies going back decades. So your theory has never been put to test. The principles involved here (in Helsinki, Stockholm, Berlin, DC, Paris, London, Warsaw etc) don’t subscribe to your theory either hence the rush in Finland and Sweden to enhance their security though a NATO alliance (as opposed to their non-NATO status that has been the case for decades including through the cold-war) and for established NATO nations investing more to make the alliance stronger through increasing armament, readiness, troop deployment and training. In any event, if NATO lacks teeth and doesn't have any intention of ever using A5 commitments then what difference does it make if it adds Finland or Sweden to an already toothless alliance that supposedly can't even defend itself from attack or is at the mercy of Russia for its territorial integrity and sovereignty?

[bala]

The principles and decision makers involved here don’t subscribe to your theory

No one cares about the principles part. The decision would have consequences and will unfold once put in place. Neither you nor I can predict what they will be. But status quo after decision will be different.

[brar_w]

No one cares about the principles part. The decision would have consequences and will unfold once put in place

Typo as I meant principals involved here as in the decision makers.

Neither you nor I can predict what they will be. But status quo after decision will be different.

True. Which is why we'll see soon enough once Finland or Sweden put in their papers (if they do) and if Russia can wrap up its invasion of Ukraine, and then invade/attack them or pick a fight with another NATO member to make a point.

[dnivas]

Video of a Ukr unit ambushed with some grenade launchers.This was not too many nights ago. some of the video is gruesome. Thw actual engagement just lasted a few moments. Commander of the 36'th brigade was killed. His was one of the units, that had a mass surrender a few days ago
https://www.bitchute.com/video/eK5EQuhbc029/

[John]

Video of a Ukr unit ambushed with some grenade launchers.This was not too many nights ago. some of the video is gruesome. Thw actual engagement just lasted a few moments. Commander of the 36'th brigade was killed. His was one of the units, that had a mass surrender a few days ago
https://www.bitchute.com/video/eK5EQuhbc029/

It’s fake video looks like they put together a video from Kazakhstan because if you look up those cords in the video that’s where the event took place (5215972.617 7397504.727),unless they are fighting Ukrainians there. There is some discussion in Twitter and Telegram on it, I am now more interested in what this original op in Kazakhstan was.

[brar_w]

Please use some basic filters and checks before posting unverified information being posted on social media by supporters of either side as there is plenty of unverified crap flying around. Just on last page we had a fake Duma page claiming that Russia will begin shooting down Space X and declare war on its star link constellation.

[John]

Here is supposed pic of Moskva coming from a civilian vessel attempting a rescue?

Not confirmed yet.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... cJ4nkFd6og

[brar_w]

Read somewhere that a Turkish commercial vessel was close and could have rescued some of the crew as they abandoned ship. Perhaps this is an image from that (still waiting to see credible technical analysis to establish authenticity) given the missing rafts in the photo. If that is the case, we would probably also see a video..

[Amber G.]

Here is supposed pic of Moskva coming from a civilian vessel attempting a rescue?

Not confirmed yet.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... cJ4nkFd6og

Also from https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1 ... b-OByO-kvQ
(eg from: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 4oTvyK-Bg
This is the Russian Flagship #Moskva before she sank.

The red line on this photo shows the approximate location of the new waterline


"Depending on the side you choose to believe, the ship was either hit by 2x R-360 "Neptun" ASMs, or suffered a catastrophic ammunition fire. "
Another image: (To rule out fake)



The inflatable liferaft containers abeam the radar unit (white canisters) are missing, presumably used in evacuation of the ship. Fire nozzles running unattended. Comparison image from 2012.

"Pierced hull"

[John]

^ Thanks for adding it looks like two missiles hit right below Am-630, penetrated and the resulting fire quickly spread inside.

Those in bridge and hanger probably got out with everyone else not so lucky especially those who where by the engine room. Doesn’t look like ammo explosion from P-1000 but rather a straight up fire below deck coupled likely poor damage control that likely allowed it to spread quickly.

[Pratyush]

It looks like poor material condition of water tight doors and bulkheads. Coupled with poor damage control practice.

Given the endemic courruption of Russia. The top brass lied to MOD about ready Ness of the ship and crew for combat.

It is bad. But every such setback has the potential of improving the ready ness of the Russian military.

[Amber G.]

^ Thanks for adding it looks like two missiles hit right below Am-630, penetrated and the resulting fire quickly spread inside.

Those in bridge and hanger probably got out with everyone else not so lucky especially those who where by the engine room. Doesn’t look like ammo explosion from P-1000 but rather a straight up fire below deck coupled likely poor damage control that likely allowed it to spread quickly.

Yes..that's what many in the thread were saying too ..Salvage tug can be seen alongside in photo .. the water stream pointing aft is likely coming from that.. tug

Anyway ..Vladimir Soloviev, launched a scathing tirade against the MoD this morning, demanding answers about what happened to the Moskva and how it could possibly have been destroyed as easily was it was..Reports (in that thread ) say something like 70 (out of 510) survived ..

[ks_sachin]

It looks like poor material condition of water tight doors and bulkheads. Coupled with poor damage control practice.

Given the endemic courruption of Russia. The top brass lied to MOD about ready Ness of the ship and crew for combat.

It is bad. But every such setback has the potential of improving the ready ness of the Russian military.

Pratyush the culture of corruption ingrained into the system from Soviet times leaves me quite sceptical. For that to happen you need a system that rewards merit. The Russian society has not seen a meritocracy ever I think.

[Cyrano]

Corrupt system is a handicap to some extent, but given the decades of threat perception, Russian Army is still a potent fighting force. China would be equally corrupt and even less potent given lack of combat experience, no? But do we take Chinese threat lightly? No.

[Cyrano]

Russian Defense Ministry update from a couple of days ago. Some interesting numbers are provided:

Source: https://t.me/rian_ru/158998

52nd day of Russia's special operation in Ukraine. The main thing:

The urban area of ​​Mariupol has been cleared of Ukrainian troops, the remnants of the group are blocked at Azovstal, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

The irretrievable losses of the Ukrainian army, the National Guard and mercenaries amount to 23,367 people, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Of these, in Mariupol - more than 4 thousand people.

The Russian military reported the destruction of the production buildings of the armored plant in Kyiv and the workshops for the repair of military equipment in Nikolaev.

Russian air defense systems shot down a Ukrainian aircraft near Odessa, which was delivering a large batch of Western weapons.

Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy met with the crew of the cruiser Moskva in Sevastopol.

Zelensky said that Kyiv would not negotiate with Moscow in the event of the destruction of the Ukrainian military in Mariupol.

[Deans]

Corrupt system is a handicap to some extent, but given the decades of threat perception, Russian Army is still a potent fighting force. China would be equally corrupt and even less potent given lack of combat experience, no? But do we take Chinese threat lightly? No.

Against an equally inefficient and corrupt Ukrainian army of 2014, Russia would have done far better. The difference is that Ukraine has bee armed and has trained for 7 years for just this kind of war. Also, you can hide deficiencies in the army when a small unit is involved, or you are not fighting a peer, but not when the bulk of your army has to do serious fighting.

Russian ordnance factories make Indian ones look efficient. There is a 10 year delay in inducting the T-14 Armata tanks (but they are still shown in every Red square parade). As a result the elite 1st Guards tank army, which was to use the T-14, is now using Soviet eta T-72's.
The air force was supposed to have 2 squadrons of stealth SU-57 fighters by now. None are inducted.
Their aircraft carrier started its refit in 2018. Just as it was being completed, a crane fell on its flight deck, breaking it and taking the completion date to 2023. Its another matter as to why the carrier air wing was not operating from land.

[Cyrano]

Another update from the same source:

Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

At the request of Erdogan, during the offensive to liberate Mariupol, a special operation was carried out in the Primorsky district to free the hostages held by the Nazis in a Turkish mosque.

The mosque was released, 29 militants were killed, including foreign mercenaries.

The hostages, citizens of one of the CIS countries, were released and taken to a safe place.

Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

The Kyiv nationalist regime forbade negotiations on surrender, ordering the Azov Nazis to shoot on the spot anyone who wanted to lay down their arms among Ukrainian military personnel and foreign mercenaries.

In total, up to 400 foreign mercenaries are now surrounded on the territory of the Azovstal enterprise as part of the Ukrainian group.

Most of them are citizens of European countries, as well as Canada. In case of further resistance, all of them will be destroyed.

[Cyrano]

Since the beginning of the special operation, Kyiv has attracted 6,824 foreign mercenaries from 63 states, the RF Ministry of Defense reported.

The most numerous group arrived from Poland - 1717 people. About one and a half thousand mercenaries arrived from the USA, Canada, and also Romania. From the UK and Georgia - up to 300 people.

193 people arrived from the Turkish-controlled areas of the SAR.

As a result of hostilities, the number of mercenaries is steadily declining and today is 4877 people.

The Russian military destroyed 1035 foreign mercenaries in Ukraine, another 912 mercenaries refused to participate in the battles and fled, the Russian Defense Ministry reported

[Deans]

Anyway ..Vladimir Soloviev, launched a scathing tirade against the MoD this morning, demanding answers about what happened to the Moskva and how it could possibly have been destroyed as easily was it was..Reports (in that thread ) say something like 70 (out of 510) survived ..

An equivalent sinking, was the sinking of the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano in the Falklands war. It was a WW-2 era ship in poor shape with many of the crew conscripts. The ship was not at action stations, or even prepared for prepared for submarine attack. It was unexpectedly torpedoed and the ships communication failed. Crew jumping overboard would have died from the cold in minutes. Yet, most of the crew were saved. No matter what the other failings of the ship and crew were, a modern warship is not expected to lose so many of its crew.

[ks_sachin]

Monsieur Cyrano I am not saying that they will not be reasonably potent and am not advocating taking them lightly but I think the Russians have a problem won’t you say - a problem that goes to the core of their lived experience. That lived experience is what makes me believe that bringing about systemic change in the Russian armed forces will be a challenging exercise.
If you look at the Indian armed forces despite the endemic chaos in society the lived experience of our youngsters and Jawans by and large is one of process, discipline, honour, integrity. That is reflected in the esprit de corps and the pride in the uniform that still exists. Different matter that as they grow things change…

[Pratyush]

How hard is it to produce PGM? By now they should have started producing such munitions and becoming more effective on the battlefield.

[ks_sachin]

How hard is it to produce PGM? By now they should have started producing such munitions and becoming more effective on the battlefield.

Unless someone told Uncle Putin some porkies that there was enough PGMs

[brar_w]

How hard is it to produce PGM? By now they should have started producing such munitions and becoming more effective on the battlefield.

Depends on the PGM and what production systems you designed for them and their various efficient and maximum production rates. Depending on these rates, you then bake in a similar supply chain of critical components and electronics so that they aren't a bottleneck to achieving your desired or even maximum production rates. It also depends on how many of these smaller components you have to import or source from a third party not directly under your control. In short, there is relatively small wiggle room for you to ramp up within weeks or even single digit months but then Russia was the invader here so they should have turned up the dials on them well ahead of executing a full fledged multi-front invasion of a country of that size.

Unless someone told Uncle Putin some porkies that there was enough PGMs

Which is the part that is difficult to gauge. Endemic corruption encapsulates every level of decision making and execution, so its not just what someone wrongly projected to leadership, but those misleading projections right across the chain of command because at every level you have someone running their own grift.

--

Here's a short video of the tug fighting the fire on the Moskva -

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 9705478152

[Cyrano]

Monsieur Cyrano I am not saying that they will not be reasonably potent and am not advocating taking them lightly but I think the Russians have a problem won’t you say - a problem that goes to the core of their lived experience. That lived experience is what makes me believe that bringing about systemic change in the Russian armed forces will be a challenging exercise.
If you look at the Indian armed forces despite the endemic chaos in society the lived experience of our youngsters and Jawans by and large is one of process, discipline, honour, integrity. That is reflected in the esprit de corps and the pride in the uniform that still exists. Different matter that as they grow things change…

Agree, we took different routes to reach the same conclusion.

[John]

Russian pacing of eastern offensive is slow I am surprised to why they are committing so many forces to defense in spite of Ukr fighting defensively only thing I can think is Russian forces are being asked to execute other tasks in the cities they capture rather than primary objectives .

[Atmavik]

^^^ also the worst season for an armored battle. Spring will bring Mud making tank movement difficult.

[Cyrano]

Seems so, the number of people who fled westwards to Eastern European countries as refugees is much lesser from east and south Ukraine where Russian forces are in control. RuA has started running bread factories, hospitals, hoping to restart schools where possible etc. Pro-Russian people have been appointed as city mayors and given the massive destruction that has happened, RuA is at least in part mobilised in helping the population. Good to see them doing that, shows they consider a country as people, not just territory.

RuA might also be taking this time to interrogate and collect information from PoWS to better organise the next wave of offensive operations while at the same time, give a breather to frontline troops, keep softening UkrA positions using Arty & air raids, hit supply lines coming from the west - all of which they continued to do, even as fuel, ammo, rations and water run out for Ukr troops in the east.

As I see it, this slowing down is a sign that RuA is in control of this war, and have earned the luxury to launch further operations at places and times of their choosing.

Once Azovstahl is completely cleaned out or cratered, I suspect the wind to go out of NATO and whoever is elensly's puppeteers in Ukraine. What exactly to continue fighting for will become a question that must be answered. At its own pace, Russia will take most of what is east of Dneipr river, west of it will be a buffer state with a figurehead under Russian control and may not even be called Ukraine - too much neo-nazi and defeat evoked by that name.

From European NATO countries perspective, ruling leaders will justify "but for our collective action things could have turned far worse" and start bickering over cost of 4 million refugees, battling inflation, energy crisis and of course about replenishing their dwindled military stocks.
And US be like "t'was fun while it lasted, let a battered Russia lick its wounds and bankrupt itself rebuilding what used to be Ukraine, its no longer a worthy opponent. Lets quickly get our MIC to hard sell all kinds of equipment to these naiwoke EU buggers and sign B$$$ of contracts before they realise their economy is down the drain. Burp! Ayy craumba ! Howdy Taiwan, here I come to save you from the evil Panda ..."

[ks_sachin]

Russian pacing of eastern offensive is slow I am surprised to why they are committing so many forces to defense in spite of Ukr fighting defensively only thing I can think is Russian forces are being asked to execute other tasks in the cities they capture rather than primary objectives .

Or the BTGs have been so badly mauled that it is taking time to organise cohesive fighting formations. Are there enough professional Noncoms or half decent conscripts?

[ldev]

Back in 2014 during the Crimea takeover, Putin had declared that Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Mariupol, Donetsk and Luhansk were all part of Novorossiya (The New Russia). As of date, after 55 days of war, what has Russia achieved in terms of this stated objective?

[John]

Back in 2014 during the Crimea takeover, Putin had declared that Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Mariupol, Donetsk and Luhansk were all part of Novorossiya (The New Russia). As of date, after 55 days of war, what has Russia achieved in terms of this stated objective?

Odessa and Mykolaiv are in Ukraine control.

Kherson city under Russian control but Kherson region is contested with Ukrainian control most of outskirts.

Mariupol is contested but mostly under Russian control.

Donetsk and Luhansk not much changed since initial advance. Kreminna was captured by Russians yesterday.

Kharkiv (which I believe is in Putin list) not much changed since initial advance other than Izyum under Russian control. Reports of Ukranian counter offensive to trap Russians in Izyum but not fully confirmed.

Russian pacing of eastern offensive is slow I am surprised to why they are committing so many forces to defense in spite of Ukr fighting defensively only thing I can think is Russian forces are being asked to execute other tasks in the cities they capture rather than primary objectives .

Or the BTGs have been so badly mauled that it is taking time to organise cohesive fighting formations. Are there enough professional Noncoms or half decent conscripts?

Some of BTG look to have been badly hit likely worsened during hasty retreat and it does like some of BTGs are purposely spending more time in Russia outfitting rather than returning to battle.