Russian / Ukranian Combat Tactics

[bala]

On Moskva: The sinking of the Moskva is a sign that such a lesson might also extend to other Navies of the world and the general state of Naval ships in Navies needs to be re-examined. The threat of advanced missiles is another area for deeper study. There are reports about US Navy old ships in bad shape and parts cannibalized from other ships. We need to look into our own Indian Navy ships and take cognizance of the state of things. An honest appraisal from the ground level would help.

BTW: The head of Ukraine’s Navy has received a promotion following the sinking of Russia's Moskva warship last week in what officials are hailing as a "brilliant operation". Rear Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa has been elevated to the rank of Vice Admiral, according to a statement from Ukrainian President Volodymyr elenskyy’s office.

[Deans]

Russian pacing of eastern offensive is slow I am surprised to why they are committing so many forces to defense in spite of Ukr fighting defensively only thing I can think is Russian forces are being asked to execute other tasks in the cities they capture rather than primary objectives .

There has been rain in the Donbass for the past week, the ground is too damp for armored vehicles. This week would be better and the ground is ideal tank country.

The northern prong of the planned offensive seems to be in place (1st Guards tank army is in the Izyum bridgehead). However, at least one of its units has been badly hit - large proportion of tanks abandoned. Russian TV clips show replacement armored vehicles moving by train towards the Izyum/ Kharkov area. The Southern prong is not yet in place - they have to move north from Mariupol. In the meantime Russian AF and arty seem to be softening up Ukrainian positions and their fuel and C&C locations in the rear.

[Deans]

Russian pacing of eastern offensive is slow I am surprised to why they are committing so many forces to defense in spite of Ukr fighting defensively only thing I can think is Russian forces are being asked to execute other tasks in the cities they capture rather than primary objectives .

Or the BTGs have been so badly mauled that it is taking time to organise cohesive fighting formations. Are there enough professional Noncoms or half decent conscripts?

There are very few professional Non coms. Almost all are probably fighting in the Ukraine. A Noncom is usually just a year older to the conscript he has been hazing. Its often said in RA that a conscript is as likely to kill his Sergeant as he is the enemy. The problem is not just quality of conscripts, or NCO's. A tank crew goes into battle with a tank they believe is probably defective (but lack the skills to fix it). Their CO knows it too. The crew does not know their commander and cannot rely on his judgement.

[sohamn]

Looks like another ship had been sunk by Ukrainian missiles- Saratov, the captain of the ship is also dead. I don't know if this was posted in this forum.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia ... fILbxVbmrn

https://www.maritime-executive.com/arti ... t-the-pier


If this is true, then I can't fathom the incompetence of the Russian Navy. There is no threat awareness, low morale or lack of decisive leadership from the local commanders. The question is - Was Putin aware of the incompetence of his military forces, was he aware of the corruption and lack of leadership? or was he overconfident from his Syria operation?

[ldev]

Back in 2014 during the Crimea takeover, Putin had declared that Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Mariupol, Donetsk and Luhansk were all part of Novorossiya (The New Russia). As of date, after 55 days of war, what has Russia achieved in terms of this stated objective?

Odessa and Mykolaiv are in Ukraine control.

Kherson city under Russian control but Kherson region is contested with Ukrainian control most of outskirts.

Mariupol is contested but mostly under Russian control.

Donetsk and Luhansk not much changed since initial advance. Kreminna was captured by Russians yesterday.

Kharkiv (which I believe is in Putin list) not much changed since initial advance other than Izyum under Russian control. Reports of Ukranian counter offensive to trap Russians in Izyum but not fully confirmed.

Thanks. I think that's a pretty accurate summary. And you are correct, Kharkov/Kharkiv was on Putin's list. With the war having lasted as long as it has and with Putin telling the visiting Austrian Chancellor last week that he would prefer that the war ends sooner rather than later I think it is almost certain that Russia will give up on Odessa and Mykolaiv. Also, given the difficulty in getting total control of Mariupol, I wonder if they will also give up on Kharkiv a much larger city.

[gpurewal]

So Google just did this: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/ ... tes-a77397

On my spare time, I like surfing on Google Maps and I'm usually looking at the volcanoes in Kamchatka, so I tend to browse into Petropavlovsk. I can clearly make out the submarines docked at Vilkovo now. Before the images were very grainy and I couldn't verify if the submarines were Akulas or Oscars, now I can.

In my eyes, this is very serious, since Google can flex its muscles and do the same for other countries as well.

*Mods please move this post if this is not the correct thread to post under.*

[Cyrano]

Lessons for India if anyone is listening....

[ks_sachin]

Lessons for India if anyone is listening....

Always have submarines submerged as Google chacha Is watching..

[brar_w]

So Google just did this: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/ ... tes-a77397

On my spare time, I like surfing on Google Maps and I'm usually looking at the volcanoes in Kamchatka, so I tend to browse into Petropavlovsk. I can clearly make out the submarines docked at Vilkovo now. Before the images were very grainy and I couldn't verify if the submarines were Akulas or Oscars, now I can.

In my eyes, this is very serious, since Google can flex its muscles and do the same for other countries as well.

*Mods please move this post if this is not the correct thread to post under.*

Google has issued a statement that they've done no such thing as they did not have any active measures in place to blur out any military installation in Russia, like they do with some other countries. Plenty of OSINT followers on SM have verified that they did not blur many of the facilities cited in recent Ukrainian claims and that newer imagery is simply a refresh of older material.

https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1516035414150234112

[Deans]

Looks like another ship had been sunk by Ukrainian missiles- Saratov, the captain of the ship is also dead. I don't know if this was posted in this forum.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia ... fILbxVbmrn

https://www.maritime-executive.com/arti ... t-the-pier


If this is true, then I can't fathom the incompetence of the Russian Navy. There is no threat awareness, low morale or lack of decisive leadership from the local commanders. The question is - Was Putin aware of the incompetence of his military forces, was he aware of the corruption and lack of leadership? or was he overconfident from his Syria operation?

The Saratov was built in 1964, scrapped in 1994 and refitted to serve in the Black sea fleet. Notwithstanding the likely low competence of its crew, almost anything could sink a vessel in its condition. I think the real problem with the Navy was a lack of any planning for the Ukraine operation. They sent a task force of some of their best ships to the Syrian coast, just before the war - which were then barred from crossing Turkish straits to enter the Black sea.

[ldev]

Lessons for India if anyone is listening....

Always have submarines submerged as Google chacha Is watching..

Why on earth would anyone be interested in Google Earth images that are many months old or even years old, when the cost of commercial satellite imagery tasking has become so competitive? You can task a satellite to get tomorrow's image of the location that is of interest to you and repeated multiple times a day if you need it. Even the Chinese have entered this market and as per their practice are trying to undercut Western vendors. And Maxar now advertises resolution of down to 15 cm vs Google Earth's highest resolution of 50 cm. Nobody who wants to cause you harm is interested in free, dated Google Earth images. They have the money to buy commercial satellite imagery.

[ks_sachin]

Always have submarines submerged as Google chacha Is watching..

Why on earth would anyone be interested in Google Earth images that are many months old or even years old, when the cost of commercial satellite imagery tasking has become so competitive? You can task a satellite to get tomorrow's image of the location that is of interest to you and repeated multiple times a day if you need it. Even the Chinese have entered this market and as per their practice are trying to undercut Western vendors. And Maxar now advertises resolution of down to 15 cm vs Google Earth's highest resolution of 50 cm. Nobody who wants to cause you harm is interested in free, dated Google Earth images. They have the money to buy commercial satellite imagery.

Comrade Idev,

I originally wanted to say that the moral of the story is "do not have submarines".

I was trying to be jestful if that is a term.

Regards

Sachin

[ldev]

Why on earth would anyone be interested in Google Earth images that are many months old or even years old, when the cost of commercial satellite imagery tasking has become so competitive? You can task a satellite to get tomorrow's image of the location that is of interest to you and repeated multiple times a day if you need it. Even the Chinese have entered this market and as per their practice are trying to undercut Western vendors. And Maxar now advertises resolution of down to 15 cm vs Google Earth's highest resolution of 50 cm. Nobody who wants to cause you harm is interested in free, dated Google Earth images. They have the money to buy commercial satellite imagery.

Comrade Idev,

I originally wanted to say that the moral of the story is "do not have submarines".

I was trying to be jestful if that is a term.

Regards

Sachin

My apologies. It wasn't directed at you but at the original poster...I should not have quoted your post.

And by the way, I look forward to your posts.

[John]

Looks like another ship had been sunk by Ukrainian missiles- Saratov, the captain of the ship is also dead. I don't know if this was posted in this forum.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia ... fILbxVbmrn

https://www.maritime-executive.com/arti ... t-the-pier


If this is true, then I can't fathom the incompetence of the Russian Navy. There is no threat awareness, low morale or lack of decisive leadership from the local commanders. The question is - Was Putin aware of the incompetence of his military forces, was he aware of the corruption and lack of leadership? or was he overconfident from his Syria operation?

To make matters worse landing ship captain of Ceasar Kunikov is also dead, it was on fire when it left port on the same attack. Russians claimed it returned and is fine but doesn’t look that way.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1516 ... TKTIMnGYOg

It is the first ship in this picture fyi
https://twitter.com/srbija_eu/status/15 ... TKTIMnGYOg

[Manish_Sharma]

@daeroplate_v2:

Production capacity & magazine depth is the one true god. Day55 of war and russi are getting warmed up pounding donbass maginot line 24x7, missiles they are supposed to have run out of weeks ago continue to pound hvt all of ukr … leaving bestern analysts to change story weekly

Day55 we would long have run out of shells, OFB union with oppn backing sitting on dharna demanding better wages and single shifts and people fighting with desi kattas and muzzle loaders …

All the ceasers, atmos, spice2000, gbu, apache game changers exhausted or lying derelict for lack of munitions or vital consumables

Sooner our big bosses smell the coffee safer for the rest of us plebians… a complete strategic review is needed what it takes to deal with the big lizard over a 100 day fight

https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/statu ... qrx1A&s=19

[ks_sachin]

@daeroplate_v2:

Production capacity & magazine depth is the one true god. Day55 of war and russi are getting warmed up pounding donbass maginot line 24x7, missiles they are supposed to have run out of weeks ago continue to pound hvt all of ukr … leaving bestern analysts to change story weekly

Day55 we would long have run out of shells, OFB union with oppn backing sitting on dharna demanding better wages and single shifts and people fighting with desi kattas and muzzle loaders …

All the ceasers, atmos, spice2000, gbu, apache game changers exhausted or lying derelict for lack of munitions or vital consumables

Sooner our big bosses smell the coffee safer for the rest of us plebians… a complete strategic review is needed what it takes to deal with the big lizard over a 100 day fight

https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/statu ... qrx1A&s=19

Guy is talking through his hat perhaps. Pounding a 200 to 300 K front non stop for a week. Do the math and see what kind of arty ammo is required. I have no doubt they have the guns but that much of ammo?

And how effective has all that pounding been.. Lets see based on this guys tweets The Russians should saunter into Donbass.

[Tanaji]

I think his point is that OFB will be unable to sustain production that will allow us to prosecute a 100 day war against China. Even if at the levels the Russians are expending which is not 24 x 7 ( he implies they are pounding 24x7)

Given OFB track record on quality of shell charges, it will be a brave man that will bank on OFB supplying for 100 days.

[dipak]

https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/statu ... qrx1A&s=19

Guy is talking through his hat perhaps. Pounding a 200 to 300 K front non stop for a week. Do the math and see what kind of arty ammo is required. I have no doubt they have the guns but that much of ammo?

And how effective has all that pounding been.. Lets see based on this guys tweets The Russians should saunter into Donbass.

He is Singha saar ...a BRF oldie. We miss him here nowadays.

[Manish_Sharma]

Guy is talking through his hat perhaps.

I can recognize chandigarh LOBBY agenda. Why it has lit up fire. He is right our 36 Rafale, our Platinum spice would run out and Maoists infiltrated unions of psu will hinder production.

But I can see why it disturbs you....

You support dissing of Arjun, Tejas and other indigenous and support imported stuff.

[ks_sachin]

I think his point is that OFB will be unable to sustain production that will allow us to prosecute a 100 day war against China. Even if at the levels the Russians are expending which is not 24 x 7 ( he implies they are pounding 24x7)

Given OFB track record on quality of shell charges, it will be a brave man that will bank on OFB supplying for 100 days.

Sir,
The IA’s war wastage reserve calcs are based on Certain assumptions . So when the balloon pops we have a buffer. Obviously if we r initiating the engagement we would factor in the worst case scenario and plan accordingly. This includes reserves of all kinds.

Yes OFB is a weak link but we deserve the systems and environment we create as we have not had the mettle to fight it.

But even the best ordinance factory in the world and even it it just a humble bulltet needs time to crank up. So yes we have a problem with the OFB but 100 days is a furphy that detracts from a good argument/observation.

[ks_sachin]

Guy is talking through his hat perhaps.

I can recognize chandigarh LOBBY agenda. Why it has lit up fire. He is right our 36 Rafale, our Platinum spice would run out and Maoists infiltrated unions of psu will hinder production.

But I can see why it disturbs you....

You support dissing of Arjun, Tejas and other indigenous and support imported stuff.

I have never been to Chandigarh, my friend. I am a Bangalore boy with links to the Dogra and Infantry lobby. I hope you have heard of them. Being part of this lobby gives you access to some insights and contacts that any amount of book learning will not help with.

I support dissing of Arjun etc….good god but you r entitled to your opinion But back up your opinions with facts or I shall report you.

BTW I was probably following the Arjun, INSAS, LCA, ALH probably before you - in the interest of being polite - had even heard of them.

[ks_sachin]

Guy is talking through his hat perhaps. Pounding a 200 to 300 K front non stop for a week. Do the math and see what kind of arty ammo is required. I have no doubt they have the guns but that much of ammo?

And how effective has all that pounding been.. Lets see based on this guys tweets The Russians should saunter into Donbass.

He is Singha saar ...a BRF oldie. We miss him here nowadays.

I did not notice he had left. So there I dont’t seem to be part of the we.
His argument is right but the way he twits could be better I think.

[Rakesh]

A Key Reason for Russia’s Colossal Electronic Warfare Failure in Ukraine
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/04/ ... e-ukraine/
13 April 2022

By Jeffrey H. Fischer - 30-year Military Aviator, Electronic Warfare Officer with seven combat tours in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Balkans.

[Pratyush]

The best equipment in the world is not going to solve the shortcomings of training.

[ks_sachin]

That is one thing that we do quite consistently despite CI mill stone. YOs and Jawans have the basics drilled into them. However need to find out more about full spectrum combined arms training.

[ldev]

A nice RUSI article.
Russia Likely has Local Air Superiority in Donbas, but it May Not Matter

Justin Bronk
19 April 2022

Compared to its initial operations around Kyiv and in the southwest of Ukraine, Russia likely has a measure of localised air superiority in Donbas. However, this is unlikely to produce decisive results on the battlefield.

Relatively low number of PGMs in the overall mix relative to Western Airforces where low cost PGM kits such as JDAMs proliferate

The Russian Air Force has several critical limitations which stand in the way of it being able to provide effective close air support and battlefield interdiction against Ukrainian forces during the new Donbas offensive. The first of these is a shortage of modern air-dropped precision-guided munitions (PGMs) for battlefield use. Although the Russian Air Force has access to laser- and GLONASS/GPS- guided bombs and missiles, they are expensive and have been produced in very limited numbers compared to Western equivalents, such as the JDAM and Paveway series bomb kits or Maverick and Hellfire missiles. Furthermore, most Russian fast jet pilots do not have significant experience using precision-guided munitions. The specialised Su-34 ‘frontal bomber’ fleet is an exception, but even these specialist strike aircraft (and the similarly ground attack-focused Su-25s) have so far conducted the vast majority of their sorties over Ukraine with unguided bombs and rockets due to limited stocks of PGMs.

Lack of targeting pods which is a hangover from Soviet era doctrine where overwhelming Soviet armored columns were capable of punching through enemy lines without close air support and Soviet SAMs kept enemy aircraft at bay.

The second key limitation which prevents Russian fast jets from being effective in close air support over Donbas is that they lack targeting pods comparable to the Litening or Sniper pods routinely carried by Western multirole fighter aircraft. Targeting pods allow fighter aircraft to orbit above the effective range of MANPADS and anti-aircraft fire, using powerful optics to search for, identify and then designate battlefield targets for precision-guided weapons deliveries by day or by night. The Russian Air Force lacks these pods, and instead relies upon retractable forward-looking sensors with limited zoom and resolution in specialised ground attack aircraft only. This further reduces their ability to effectively identify and hit Ukrainian vehicles and fighting positions without placing themselves at unacceptable risk.

Low training hours for Russian pilots with even lower preparation for close air support functions

The third key limitation for most Russian fighters in a close air support role is very limited flying training hours for aircrew. Russian fast jet pilots were receiving between 80 and 100 flying hours per year before the invasion of Ukraine. This is significantly fewer than their Western counterparts, and Russian fighter pilots also lack access to modern high-fidelity simulators to train in realistic virtual environments when not live-flying. As such, Russian pilots are only likely to be combat ready in their primary mission set, which is usually the pure fighter role. Close air support is a highly complex and technically demanding mission set which requires regular practice and deep familiarity with ground-to-air integration practices, weapon and targeting switchology, delivery profiles and deconfliction procedures. It is not something which can be done well without significant training beforehand, even with access to modern PGMs and targeting pods. Therefore, the majority of Russian fighter pilots are unlikely to be currently capable of conducting close air support in a complex and highly contested environment such as Donbas with unguided munitions. This is especially true given the composite and degraded nature of many Russian units in the area of operations at this stage, meaning joint terminal attack controller (JTAC) integration and distribution is likely to be uneven at best. Without large numbers of well-integrated JTACs on the Russian frontlines, coordinating close air support with ground forces will be even more challenging.

[ramana]

One lesson for IA to take from the destruction of Russian armor is the vulnerability to drones and anti-tank missiles of various types; guided (Javelin) and unguided (NLAW.

It defeats the PLA combat battalions formation even without a fight.
PLA combat battalions are heavy in armor and APCs for mobility.
These are not invincible provided IA stops the nonsense and adopts the Nag etc. in quantity.
None of the modest qtys from British heritage.

[John]

One lesson for IA to take from the destruction of Russian armor is the vulnerability to drones and anti-tank missiles of various types; guided (Javelin) and unguided (NLAW.

It defeats the PLA combat battalions formation even without a fight.
PLA combat battalions are heavy in armor and APCs for mobility.
These are not invincible provided IA stops the nonsense and adopts the Nag etc. in quantity.
None of the modest qtys from British heritage.

NLAW is actually guided here are the weapons we seen so far in order most of appearance in videos IMO

Stuga: Laser-command guided using remote weapon system
NLAW: Fire and forget
Panzerfaust 3: unguided
Javelin: Fire and forget top down attack
AT-4: unguided Swedish
RK-3: Ukranian version similar to Konkurs wire-command guided
Rpg-xx: rpg unguided

[vinod]

There is a counter offensive by Ukraine happening on the kharkiv front which if succeeds could spoil the whole donbass attack. The izyum front will be very vulnerable and Russia will have to withdraw.

On the Donetsk front also, there is a counter offensive.

Mariupol steel plant is going to be real bloody. No easy way there. The structure is meant to withstand these kind of attacks!

Russians must be really frustrated by now how they lost the initiative early on. May 9 victory parade is going to look more like stalemate on many fronts unless Russians can really engineer a massive turnaround on how they do things.

[Deans]

Ukrainian counterattacks do not appear to be working. They have the same problems the Russians faced - attacking with less than a 2:1 superiority. The Russians also have a big advantage in artillery and air support. Moreover its more difficult to get Ukrainian reservists to attack, rather than hide and fire off AGTW's, in a defensive role. What they have been doing in the last 2 days is shelling villages across the border in Russia, hoping to provoke Russia into hitting civilian targets, or divert forces to protect the Belgorad region.

The expanding Russian bridgehead at Izyum is the most critical threat for Ukraine. The Ukrainians are attacking it with what is left of their air force but have not succeeded. The key Donbass town of Severodonetsk is being threatened from 2 directions. If that town is lost, the Donbass is liberated (if not, a large force may be lost trying to defend it). If Severodonetsk falls, the bigger city to the West, Slavyansk, gets threatened from 3 directions and defending it becomes unviable. Russia is possibly looking to achieve both by 8th May.

In Mairupol. Russia realises that storming the Azov Steel plant will be like the Stalingrad tractor factory ver 2.0 and they are in no hurry to do it.
There are underground bunkers there which are immune to air attack. What the Russians seem to be doing is tightening the ring around it and letting the Ukrainians run out of ammunition. They have already diverted a lot of the Mariupol force for the battle of the Donbass.

[John]

Ukrainian counterattacks do not appear to be working. They have the same problems the Russians faced - attacking with less than a 2:1 superiority. The Russians also have a big advantage in artillery and air support. Moreover its more difficult to get Ukrainian reservists to attack, rather than hide and fire off AGTW's, in a defensive role. What they have been doing in the last 2 days is shelling villages across the border in Russia, hoping to provoke Russia into hitting civilian targets, or divert forces to protect the Belgorad region.
.

So far Ukrainian counterattacks have been minimal and where they have they have captured few territories, we haven’t seen any large Ukr counter attacks. It seems like Ukr are holding back waiting for Russians to make their move, also Ukraine has capable soldiers I don’t believe they have an army that has experience launching large offensive operations.

[ShivS]

On the Moskva

1. General shock at the fact that 2 subsonic ASMs could hit and sink the ship. Regard for the ship’s sensors and ECM capabilities is reasonable.

Possible reasons are that the ship sailed with some sensors out of order (seems common in the Russian navy), CIWS was on standby, tunnel vision by captain and that weapons systems need captains clearance to engage. Still general view is that this should not have happened purely based on the ship’s capabilities.

2. Less surprise on failure of damage control. Lots of Russian ships have poor fire and blast damage doors and watertight compartments. Most have specific crew members trained on damage control as opposed to western philosophy of every crew member being trained on damage control so ability to respond quickly is lower.

[Cyrano]

Been looking at a lot of battlefield videos from both sides, and analysis on the day to day confrontations between both forces which some internet enthusiasts have been diligently plotting on google maps based on OSInt.

Few observations:

The battlefield is roughly a 300km by 200 km oval EW to NS.

There seem to be about thirty to fifty contact points along the eastern half periphery of the oval. AFU defending inside out. RA is pushing outside in with incursions trying to create multiple fingers of 5-10 kms from which they reconnect right or left and lock AFU troops and positions into islands, to force surrender or destroy them.

So lots of mini battles gnawing away methodically towards the centre of the oval. Each such finger of incursion may pit something like 50 infantry troops, a dozen tanks and a dozen IFVs/APCs, mortars etc and supply vehicles not too far behind but at a safe distance, against a similar sized or bigger (but surely not 3x) AFU defensive group which is armed with lot less armoured vehicles but arty, mortars and NLAWs etc.

RA's towed arty or missile batteries hang far behind and shoot targets over the heads of RA troops and beyond on enemy positions before they move in to mop up and secure the territory and connect with adjacent incursion group and secure the island between them and secure a larger piece of land by thorough combing.

Of course the troop and vehicle numbers for each incursion will vary depending on the intelligence, recon and sat images, terrain estimated enemy size etc but this seems to be the general modus operandi in the Donbass cauldron. Has the merit of not extending too far ahead of supply lines.

RA troops further back will take control of the villages and towns thus secured and set up forward bases and move the entire war machine forward like a patch of carpet unfolded towards the oval's center, sq km by sq km. Very tough for AFU to make counter incursions because that will mean risk of getting cut off from behind by a nearby RA finger.

So this is indeed a slow grinding and progressive squeeze from north, east and south by RA, if AFU runs west, they will lose territory into which RA will move in eventually boxing them against Dneipr river.

Russians seem to have worked this one out beautifully. Grab a big bag of popcorn for the slow show that is unfolding, unless AFU troops surrender en masses going against the orders of Kyiv and braving a headshot from behind by an Azov buddy.

[ks_sachin]

Cyrano I think what you have described is how BTGs are meant to be employed. ESP the use of arty etc. However Deans is the expert I suppose.

[ldev]

As Ukraine runs short on ammunition the US is hunting all over the world for Soviet standard ammunition to supply Ukraine. Including India.

The U.S. Races to Arm Ukraine With Heavier, More Advanced Weaponry

The Western effort is both sprawling and expensive, with as many as 30 countries, not all of them members of NATO. The push now is to get countries with Soviet-era tanks, artillery and perhaps even fighter planes to provide them to Ukraine, with the promise that the United States will replenish them with more modern, Western-made arms in return. There is an especially acute need for Soviet-bloc standard 152-millimeter howitzer shells, since NATO uses a different, 155-millimeter shell.

The United States has also agreed to provide some 155-millimeter howitzers, along with 40,000 matching rounds, while trying to buy Soviet-standard ammunition from countries that use it, including nations outside of Europe, like Afghanistan and even India, a longstanding buyer of Russian arms.

But that is not enough, General Hodges argued. “We are still not thinking big,” he said. “We are still not thinking in terms of Ukraine winning.”

[ldev]

No less a person than Igor Girkin aka Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, (the first 4 lines from his Wikipedia entry are given below) thinks that the renewed Russian offensive in the East will not be entirely successful. And the longer the war goes on the stronger the Ukranians will become. Perhaps Deans can opine?

Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin (Russian: И́горь Все́володович Ги́ркин, IPA: [ˈiɡərʲ ˈfsʲevələdəvʲɪtɕ ˈɡʲirkʲɪn],; 17 December 1970),[2] also known by the alias Igor Ivanovich Strelkov (Russian: И́горь Ива́нович Стрелко́в, IPA: [ˈiɡərʲ ɪˈvanəvʲɪtɕ strʲɪlˈkof]), is a Russian army veteran and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer who played a key role in the Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, and later the War in Donbas as an organizer of militant groups of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic's.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

A 3 page translation of a recent post on his Telegram channel:







https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/15 ... 4816832512

[Deans]

Cyrano I think what you have described is how BTGs are meant to be employed. ESP the use of arty etc. However Deans is the expert I suppose.

No expert, but my understanding is similar to Cyrano's.
It looks like being a slow grinding advance, not hundreds of tanks sweeping blitzkrieg style - which the Red army actually did in 1942 and 1943 when they burst out of the same Izyum bridgehead that they are advancing from now.
The Russian intent seems to be crush a substantial part of the Ukrainian army that is now in the Donbass, not capture a lot of territory fast.

Specifically in the south Donbass, the Russians have punched a 15km wide hole in the Zaporizhye line (East of Zelene Pole and West of Velyka Novosilka. Through it, they advanced 15km yesterday, threatening to cut off the main Ukrainian force defending East of Velyka Novisilka. Another hole has been punched just North of Donetsk. If both prongs (advancing North and West) meet around the town of Mezhova, it forms a ring around a third of the Ukrainian force in the Donbass. The BTG's doing the advancing are being backed by heavy artillery and air strikes, but the problem is weather they have the strength to close the pocket. The BTG's do not have the infantry to prevent Ukrainian units slipping out of the encirclement, or the tanks to prevent a determined Ukrainian counterattack.

In the North Donbass, the strongest Ukrainian force defending the twin towns of Severo-Donetsk and Lysychansk, is threatened with encirclement,
since the Russians captured Rubizne to its north and Toshkivka to its south and look like cutting off the the road to Slavyansk. If they take Slavyansk-Lysychansk, the Donbass is liberated.
The only Ukrainian force that can intervene is at Slavyansk /Kramatorsk, but they are threatened by 2 Russian thrusts that have captured Lyman ( 20 km north East of Slavyansk) and Krasnopilaya (18 km to the North West). Again, this double envelopment is being done in BTG sized forces, so their ability to pull off these encirclements is questionable.
All the locations visible on google maps.

The Russians are also gambling on the fact that while there are questions about the ability and morale of the Russian forces, the Ukrainians are in worse shape. They are also sending conscripts and reservists to the front. The Russians are stepping up artillery barrages and air strikes, while the Ukrainians appear to be facing shortages of fuel and ammo.

[Deans]

It looks like being a slow grinding advance, not hundreds of tanks sweeping blitzkrieg style - which the Red army actually did in 1942 and 1943 when they burst out of the same Izyum bridgehead that they are advancing from now.

In both 1942 (2nd battle of Kharkov) and 1943 (3rd battle of Kharkov), the Red army, bursting out of Izyum, advanced to far, too fast and just when things looked promising, suffered a catastrophic defeat, when they neglected to ensure enough supplies, protect their supply routes, or defend their flanks. I'm sure that's something the Russians are aware of.

[Deans]

No less a person than Igor Girkin aka Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, (the first 4 lines from his Wikipedia entry are given below) thinks that the renewed Russian offensive in the East will not be entirely successful. And the longer the war goes on the stronger the Ukranians will become. Perhaps Deans can opine?

I broadly agree. To put it simply, Russia does not even have a 2:1 superiority at any sector of the Donbass front.
They are assuming superior air power and artillery will compensate for it.
They are also assuming their replacement men and equipment will be superior to the Ukrainians AND that fresh supplies of armaments will be more than what NATO is supplying.
If the Donbass offensive does not work, it becomes a battle of attrition that Russia will lose. (Ukraine will lose more, but that is irrelevant as Russia is fighting NATO equipment).

[ks_sachin]

No less a person than Igor Girkin aka Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, (the first 4 lines from his Wikipedia entry are given below) thinks that the renewed Russian offensive in the East will not be entirely successful. And the longer the war goes on the stronger the Ukranians will become. Perhaps Deans can opine?

I broadly agree. To put it simply, Russia does not even have a 2:1 superiority at any sector of the Donbass front.
They are assuming superior air power and artillery will compensate for it.
They are also assuming their replacement men and equipment will be superior to the Ukrainians AND that fresh supplies of armaments will be more than what NATO is supplying.
If the Donbass offensive does not work, it becomes a battle of attrition that Russia will lose. (Ukraine will lose more, but that is irrelevant as Russia is fighting NATO equipment).

Uncle Putin has achieved the exact opposite of what he set out to do.....