Russian / Ukranian Combat Tactics

John · Post by **John** » 23 Apr 2022 20:19

Ukrainian Intel is claiming they launched strike on Russian command & control in Kherson outskirts (a explosion was seen yesterday night) and Russian top brass where present. So far they are claiming 2 Generals were killed, not confirmed so take it with a grain of salt. But previous strikes on Kherson air base turned out to be true.

https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status ... EXqarJPsrw

Video of strike

https://twitter.com/osinttv/status/1517 ... EXqarJPsrw

Russia has acknowledged losses from Moskva, 1 dead and 27 missing. Will see if these figures change in time.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 23 Apr 2022 23:01

Well, Kherson will soon have a referendum to become an independent republic like the others. This strike seems like petty vengeance by Kyiv. Expect more such on Kharkiv as well who also want to go away from Ukr.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 24 Apr 2022 16:07

A glimpse of the underground tunnel network of Azovstal. Hope it helps understand why Putin prefers to seal it off than send his soldiers into it to face 100s, perhaps 1000s of enemy fighters and possibly many civilians as well.

https://twitter.com/OsintTv/status/1517 ... 89728?s=20

John · Post by **John** » 25 Apr 2022 06:22

Massive fire in Bryansk Russia in oil storage facilities in two locations, refinery and military base. Could be accidental or Tochka attack.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518 ... 9xx_wf1lPA

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 25 Apr 2022 10:59

"The missile and artillery troops performed 423 fire tasks during the night", Konashenkov said, adding that particularly, 26 command posts, 367 strongpoints and places of the amassment of manpower and military equipment, as well as 25 gun lines were hit.

https://tass.com/defense/1442187

Sounds like a massive amount of hits. If numbers are correct (if!), and this level can be half sustained for next 20 days = 4000 hits, no enemy will survive as a fighting force. It will wipe out/wound nearly 10K - 20K troops.

@Deans or someone should ofcourse make sense of this. This for face value looks too good to be true.

--------------
As an aside, there are noises from West that say russia has already lost the war - sounds more like a realistic assessment from West that this war might be unwinnable by Ukraine. Btw the $800 million equipment hasnt yet reached ukraine in full. If it wins no votes, it will never reach in full.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Apr 2022 11:37

YashG wrote:"The missile and artillery troops performed 423 fire tasks during the night", Konashenkov said, adding that particularly, 26 command posts, 367 strongpoints and places of the amassment of manpower and military equipment, as well as 25 gun lines were hit.

Sounds like a massive amount of hits. If numbers are correct (if!), and this level can be half sustained for next 20 days = 4000 hits, no enemy will survive as a fighting force. It will wipe out/wound nearly 10K - 20K troops.

@Deans or someone should ofcourse make sense of this. This for face value looks too good to be true.

The problem is Russian press releases have not moved beyond Soviet era propaganda (Ukraine is not much better).
The total number of aircraft/ tanks/drones/artillery/SAMs Russia claims to have destroyed, exceed Ukraine's pre war total (e.g. 141 aircraft, 101 helicopters and 2496 tanks). I doubt any Russian believes that. Moreover, while Russia is able to give the exact no of Ukrainians killed in air strikes, there's little info on Russian casualties. In Russian speak, fierce fighting = we have taken high casualties. Heavy resistance = Casualties heavier than expected, or `we failed to take the objective' . What I thought was relevant is that Russia says its started hitting shipments of NATO supplies (2 transport aircraft shot down near Odessa) and bridges across the Dnieper are being destroyed.

What is useful is the villages where Min of Def says fighting is going on (that gives a rough indication where the front line is).
Also, some of the non war related announcements are relevant. Looks like Russia is going to stay in occupied territory. For e.g. ATM's are being filled with rubles, street signs in Russian, schools have restarted Russian and Russian prosecutors have arrived to investigate war crimes.
There are news stories not seen since WW2 - School kids sending letters to the front, Widows saying how they are proud their husbands died fighting fascism etc.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Apr 2022 11:47

John wrote:Massive fire in Bryansk Russia in oil storage facilities in two locations, refinery and military base. Could be accidental or Tochka attack.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518 ... 9xx_wf1lPA

Russia confirmed 2 fires/explosions.
One was at an army ammunition depot and vehicle storage facility. The other, a short distance away seems to be oil storage tanks - there is also a military base there. The fires are huge.

Its 100 km from the Ukrainian border, so maybe 150-200 km from any Tochka unit. That's the extreme range of an advanced Tochka missile and surprisingly accurate given the CEP of a Tochka.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 25 Apr 2022 13:18

John wrote:Massive fire in Bryansk Russia in oil storage facilities in two locations, refinery and military base. Could be accidental or Tochka attack.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518 ... 9xx_wf1lPA

For every 100 blows which Russia gives, I guess it get back 1 once in a while.

siddhu · Post by **siddhu** » 25 Apr 2022 13:59

Deans wrote:
John wrote:Massive fire in Bryansk Russia in oil storage facilities in two locations, refinery and military base. Could be accidental or Tochka attack.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518 ... 9xx_wf1lPA
Russia confirmed 2 fires/explosions.
One was at an army ammunition depot and vehicle storage facility. The other, a short distance away seems to be oil storage tanks - there is also a military base there. The fires are huge.

Its 100 km from the Ukrainian border, so maybe 150-200 km from any Tochka unit. That's the extreme range of an advanced Tochka missile and surprisingly accurate given the CEP of a Tochka.

They might be using cluster warhead. Explodes at 7000 feet with 50 sub-mutations covering large area.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 25 Apr 2022 15:16

Deans wrote:What I thought was relevant is that Russia says its started hitting shipments of NATO supplies (2 transport aircraft shot down near Odessa) and bridges across the Dnieper are being destroyed.

Russia is more likely to find and hit small deliveries coming towards the east. As civilian traffic towards west to east must be more sparse - it will be thick east to west. Smaller deliveries through small roads moving at night, camouflaged under tree cover during the day. but in an area with still more russian intel on ground.

Do you think 367 strikes on amassment nodes reported above is doing this?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Apr 2022 16:03

YashG wrote:
Deans wrote:What I thought was relevant is that Russia says its started hitting shipments of NATO supplies (2 transport aircraft shot down near Odessa) and bridges across the Dnieper are being destroyed.
Russia is more likely to find and hit small deliveries coming towards the east. As civilian traffic towards west to east must be more sparse - it will be thick east to west. Smaller deliveries through small roads moving at night, camouflaged under tree cover during the day. but in an area with still more russian intel on ground.

Do you think 367 strikes on amassment nodes reported above is doing this?

RuAF has hit very few targets West of the Dnieper. They do not seem to be using Belarus airspace. When Kiev or Odessa are hit, the flying time over Ukrainian controlled airspace is minimal (Odessa is hit by aircraft flying out of Crimea over the sea). Mobile SAMs seem to be a real threat for the RuAF, especially when the seem to have a shortage of smart bombs or missiles with a high stand off range. NATO AWACs give enough warning of incoming aircraft, in Western Ukraine. The strikes they have conducted are on railway yards and bridges.
On the positive side for Russia is that aircraft losses have fallen. Only 2 reported since April 3.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 25 Apr 2022 16:24

Deans wrote:
YashG wrote:
Russia is more likely to find and hit small deliveries coming towards the east. As civilian traffic towards west to east must be more sparse - it will be thick east to west. Smaller deliveries through small roads moving at night, camouflaged under tree cover during the day. but in an area with still more russian intel on ground.

Do you think 367 strikes on amassment nodes reported above is doing this?
RuAF has hit very few targets West of the Dnieper. They do not seem to be using Belarus airspace. When Kiev or Odessa are hit, the flying time over Ukrainian controlled airspace is minimal (Odessa is hit by aircraft flying out of Crimea over the sea). Mobile SAMs seem to be a real threat for the RuAF, especially when the seem to have a shortage of smart bombs or missiles with a high stand off range. NATO AWACs give enough warning of incoming aircraft, in Western Ukraine. The strikes they have conducted are on railway yards and bridges.
On the positive side for Russia is that aircraft losses have fallen. Only 2 reported since April 3.

That explains reason why east of dnieper, russia has little air superiority. Though blowing bridges on dnieper would mean, new heavy weapons will have a tough time moving east, unless transported dismantled.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 25 Apr 2022 18:04

Looks like a Su-34 went down in Kharkiv Oblast (video and photos of crash site in link below).

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518540895058120704

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 25 Apr 2022 18:07

brar_w wrote:Looks like a Su-34 went down in Kharkiv Oblast (video and photos of crash site in link below).

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518540895058120704

Mid air engine failure ?
Given the high number of sorties being flown - some engine failures are inevitable.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 25 Apr 2022 18:11

Deans wrote:
John wrote:Massive fire in Bryansk Russia in oil storage facilities in two locations, refinery and military base. Could be accidental or Tochka attack.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518 ... 9xx_wf1lPA
Russia confirmed 2 fires/explosions.

Even though it was 100-150 km or so away from the border, one would have expected a military base that close to have some sort of protection against tactical ballistic missiles (SRBMs). It appears that the fire at the fuel depot is still active ..

@RALee85
The fire at the oil depot in Bryansk has been going for more than 12 hours.
https://t.me/shot_shot/38598

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518554912992505856

YashG wrote:
brar_w wrote:Looks like a Su-34 went down in Kharkiv Oblast (video and photos of crash site in link below).

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518540895058120704
Mid air engine failure ?
Given the high number of sorties being flown - some engine failures are inevitable.

Based on the video, anything is possible and you can't rule anything out in particular other than that it was serious enough for the two to bail out so likely some sort of engine failure either with or without a surface to air intervention. Not sure how many sorties these a/c are flying each day to know exactly what the burden is on the 2-seat flanker (Su-34/30) fleet.

A new video of the spin/crash - https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518576613063069699

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Apr 2022 18:53

YashG wrote:
brar_w wrote:Looks like a Su-34 went down in Kharkiv Oblast (video and photos of crash site in link below).

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518540895058120704
Mid air engine failure ?
Given the high number of sorties being flown - some engine failures are inevitable.

SU-25s are doing very low level attacks. There are clips of SU-25 attacking at low level and aircraft returning to base with a damage from small arms fire, or MANPADS. I doubt they would be able to take part in more missions.

RuAF has started hitting the railway traction stations. That will affect the movement of electric trains.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Apr 2022 18:55

brar_w wrote: Even though it was 100-150 km or so away from the border, one would have expected a military base that close to have some sort of protection against tactical ballistic missiles (SRBMs). It appears that the fire at the fuel depot is still active ..

Russians say they shot down a Tochka fired into Russia in a separate incident.

John · Post by **John** » 25 Apr 2022 19:02

Deans wrote:
brar_w wrote: Even though it was 100-150 km or so away from the border, one would have expected a military base that close to have some sort of protection against tactical ballistic missiles (SRBMs). It appears that the fire at the fuel depot is still active ..
Russians say they shot down a Tochka fired into Russia in a separate incident.

I believe there was Tochka hit on Russian air base as well a week into the war, they claimed to have shot down Tochka in Berdyansk couple days before 2nd attack that sunk Saratov .
They showed the Tochka wreckage but you can clearly see it just separated from warhead and there was no visible direct hit from a SAM (May be it knocked it off the path but vids from first attack do show cluster munitions being released but missing the yard).

One has to wonder what is happening with S-300 PMU and S-400, Tochka are no means hard to shoot down compared to even the Scud.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 25 Apr 2022 20:16

An insightful conversation

John · Post by **John** » 25 Apr 2022 21:00

Supposedly the attacks are done by TB.2 but Russians claim to have shot down multiple TB.2 that took part but only one wreckage was shown. Fact that multiple drones can fly into and out of Russian territory is impressive.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... eiJT8uBRSA

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 25 Apr 2022 21:07

Indian Air Force And Army Induct Advanced Israeli Anti-Tank Guided Missiles | Defence News

sohamn · Post by **sohamn** » 26 Apr 2022 00:16

YashG wrote:
brar_w wrote:Looks like a Su-34 went down in Kharkiv Oblast (video and photos of crash site in link below).

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518540895058120704
Mid air engine failure ?
Given the high number of sorties being flown - some engine failures are inevitable.

The aircraft is in flat spin, which is indicative of a stall. so yes, engine failure is possible especially if the stall happened during a turn or a climb. The plane looks intact though.

John · Post by **John** » 26 Apr 2022 01:43

sohamn wrote:
YashG wrote:
Mid air engine failure ?
Given the high number of sorties being flown - some engine failures are inevitable.

The aircraft is in flat spin, which is indicative of a stall. so yes, engine failure is possible especially if the stall happened during a turn or a climb. The plane looks intact though.

A Su-34 was seen flying releasing flares and firing off Kh-29 some speculation it is same one that got shot down just moments later so it likely could be manpad or Starstreak as it was in visible range.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... QmR8xMOoHg

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 26 Apr 2022 09:59

[Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/TusiPpI.png)

Both Russian analysts I follow (5 mil followers in Russia) are now blocked in youtube and telegram. The most credible info I can put together is this:
Overall situation in the Donbass.

There are 3 Ukrainian troop concentrations in the Donbass (
1. Severo-Donetsk - Lichansk
2. Slavyansk- Kramatorsk &
3. Southern Donbass (area in blue fortifications)

The Russians have broken through South of Izyum (west of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk) and have 2 options as shown by the 2 blue lines, depending on
weather they want a large (and loose) or smaller encirclement.
They have taken parts of Severo-donetsk by frontal assault and also outflanked it from the North and South. The Ukrainians may find that their
retreat is cut off.
There are BTG sized breakthroughs in the South (blue line) that threaten to encircle the southern grouping of Ukrainians. However, the Russians have made very little progress here in the last week. This breakthrough happened 5 days ago (my earlier post). After a 15 km advance on day 1, the Russian have barely advanced 8 km in the last 4 days. They have also punched a hole in the Ukrainian line at Horlivka. That thrust can either link up with the Russian breakthrough in the south, or it can move North and meet the Russian group advancing South from Izyum. Again, the Russians seem to weak to advance fast, but the Ukrainians don't have the strength to counter attack.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 26 Apr 2022 10:26

This is a more detailed look at yesterday's Russian advance from Izyum.

In the Eastern part of the map, you can see that Severo-donetsk is partly occupied by the Russians.
The Ukrainian withdrawal route to Slavyansk (not clear on map but just north of Kramatorsk) and Kramatorsk, are in danger of being cut off.
The Russians have a choice of a tight encirclement around Severodonetsk-Lichansk, or a bigger one, meeting at Bakhmut, or a super encirclement
to the West.

The Ukrainians at Slavyansk-Kramatorsk were defending against Russians advancing down the roads which are a Y junction North of Kramatorsk
(meeting at Slavyansk). They succeeded in stalling the Russians, 10 km from Slavyansk, but have now been outflanked to
the West. Rather than get into urban fighting in the heavily fortified Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, they are in a position to cut the road to Kramatorsk,
which is the main supply route for the Ukrainians.

All the above possibilities, depend on the Russian BTGs being big enough to hold the ring around the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians have so far preferred to stay and fight rather than withdraw.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 26 Apr 2022 14:51

For Russia's current slow burn strategy to work, 2 things need to happen within the next month or so :
1. Ukraine fighting strength needs to deplete sufficiently to make the remaining give up and surrender
2. The west needs to find some other hot topic to chase after and take focus away from Ukraine.

The fact that Russia is being very careful to avoid further troop losses indicates that have lost a significant number already, perhaps mostly conscripts and juniors. Those remaining are experienced soldiers and losing them will hurt operations a lot more, especially since their force structure is not infantry heavy to begin with.

We aren't getting any good insight into Ukrainian force strength now, plus the several hundred highly experienced NATO teams supporting or managing them. Ukr social media sharing ban is working as intended. But its inconceivable that they haven't suffered major troop losses to non stop Russian bombardment. Are they barely holding on and will fold suddenly remains to be seen. It seems the Russians are expecting that to happen.

Russians have finally started hitting rail infra running west to east, making resupply to Ukr troops in Donbass harder. Especially for heavy equipment like tanks, arty etc. At this point, I see both sides grappling with the situation, trying to figure out what to do next. Playing for time works in some aspects for both, and doesn't work in other aspects for both.

Russia needs to find a tipping point. If it can't find one in the coming days, NATO will create their own tipping point by escalating the conflict wider on some pretext or the other. Transnistria for example.

Defense ministers from 40 countries are meeting currently at the Ramstein base in Germany to make a collective effort to wing it for Ukranie. If only they put a fraction of that effort to broker peace...

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 26 Apr 2022 16:05

What Russians need to do is to have a full scale industrial mobilisation to fight this war.

If they have any troop reserves left in the barn. Train them had with men having current experience in the field. Start sending them to the field to put this to bed.

Win the damm thing.

Russia however strong it is. It's not strong enough to win a long term proxy fight with NATO.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 26 Apr 2022 16:45

Pratyush wrote:What Russians need to do is to have a full scale industrial mobilisation to fight this war.

If they have any troop reserves left in the barn. Train them had with men having current experience in the field. Start sending them to the field to put this to bed.

Win the damm thing.

Russia however strong it is. It's not strong enough to win a long term proxy fight with NATO.

The Russians should have started that mobilisation a year ago, if they needed reserves now. (as Ukraine seems to have done).
Russia had a target of a 100,000 man national guard by the end of 2021, with each district having a recruitment target. It's doubtful if they have even 20,000. These are former conscripts, given a stipend, 60 days training a year and on call for a 3 year period in case there's war.
They have also not mobilized former conscripts who have the skills Russia needs in Ukraine - Tank crew or experienced infantry (who fought in the Donbass in 2014-5). Similarly, if Russian tank and aircraft factories had worked an extra shift during the last 18 months, their extra production would probably have replaced current losses.
There do not even seem to be experienced maintenance crews to repair damaged tanks closer to the front.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 26 Apr 2022 17:10

Eventually with the capacity being developed in Ukraine by NATO.

Russia will lose the fight. The decision of this war will not be made on the battlefield. It will be made by the scale of the MIC mobilisation between NATO and Russia. USA is already salivating with the prospect of another endless war.

NATO can resupply Ukraine relatively cheaply. With munitions that are cheap and disproportionately effective relative to the cost.

Western Ukrainian supply chains have to be destroyed completely.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 26 Apr 2022 17:23

Pratyush wrote:Eventually with the capacity being developed in Ukraine by NATO.

Russia will lose the fight. The decision of this war will not be made on the battlefield. It will be made by the scale of the MIC mobilisation between NATO and Russia. USA is already salivating with the prospect of another endless war.

NATO can resupply Ukraine relatively cheaply. With munitions that are cheap and disproportionately effective relative to the cost.

Western Ukrainian supply chains have to be destroyed completely.

Russia has got into a war of attrition it cannot win. Both the military losses and losses to the economy will be catastrophic.
Ukraine will lose more, but that is irrelevant. Russia is now fighting NATO, who does not have to incur any casualties and can outproduce Russia 10X.The only options for Russia are to win the Battle of the Donbass in the next 2 weeks and get an acceptable deal from Ukraine.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 26 Apr 2022 19:25

^^^ Zelensky knows the Russian compulsion and will not compromise, he is ready to sacrifice a lot

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 26 Apr 2022 19:42

Atmavik wrote:^^^ Zelensky knows the Russian compulsion and will not compromise, he is ready to sacrifice a lot

So the only way to win is to break Ukraine beyond repair.

Poor Ukraine.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 26 Apr 2022 19:43

But NATO has won

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 26 Apr 2022 20:07

ks_sachin wrote:But NATO has won

Not yet, but unless Russia gets serious. NATO will win.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 26 Apr 2022 20:30

Pratyush wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:But NATO has won
Not yet, but unless Russia gets serious. NATO will win.

Serious how?
Blow all of Ukraine to the Neolithic ages?
From a pure military capacity I.e is e of inf and armr I don’t think they have the required wherewithal.
Othwerwise what is Putin waiting for and sacrificing men and material by getting into a grind. Stupidity is it not.
This has been a most amateurish prosecution of a campaign!!
NATO has achieved its objective of degrading Russian conventional armed forces which at any rate were not crash hot before this.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 26 Apr 2022 20:31

I have no idea how Russians can salvage this war at this moment in time.

The only way it can be made to work is to have a full scale industrial and human mobilisation.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 26 Apr 2022 21:23

There is the risk of over estimating the wiggle room that they have when it comes to mobilization. You have to balance doing that and the public perception side of it with the hard reality that throwing poorly trained mobilized forces will likely lead to greater losses and there’s no real exit or going back on that while you have more flexibility in modifying your military and political objectives around a “special military operations”. Regardless, no industrial or force mobilization is going to impact the next 6-8 weeks even if the decision is taken today. Which gets us to the short term operational objectives in the east and south in terms of taking and holding cities currently under Ukrainian control or contested and not losing controls on the ones already being held.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 26 Apr 2022 21:29

Pratyush wrote:I have no idea how Russians can salvage this war at this moment in time.

The only way it can be made to work is to have a full scale industrial and human mobilisation.

Either that, or inflict so much economic and human damage on Ukraine, that soldiers wonder what will be left of the country they are defending
and the leadership feels that maybe they should concede what they had agreed in Minsk-2 anyway. One reason the Ukraine leadership does not want to negotiate seriously is that most of the cabinet have dual citizenship. They can simply leave the country. There is an outside chance that EU will put some pressure for talks, once the refugee numbers get close to 10 million.

kit · Post by **kit** » 26 Apr 2022 21:38

Atmavik wrote:^^^ Zelensky knows the Russian compulsion and will not compromise, he is ready to sacrifice a lot

cocaine helps

bala · Post by **bala** » 26 Apr 2022 23:00

We are concluding too many things without the perspective of long term strategy. So far Russia has kept the regions which it invaded - Abkhazia, Ossetia and Crimea. The portions of Luhansk, Donetz are as good as gone. Odesa, Mykolaiv and Transnistria are remaining to be taken out and eventually Ukr will be land locked. We can quibble about pace and loss of combat forces but these are things unique to each engagement. Those remaining areas of Ukr are another blah land of Europe whose strategic importance has diminished considerably. Europe is going to face untold problems in the coming years. Russia will take a loss in terms of the current engagement. However like a burnt forest always rejuvenates itself with better growth, Russia will bounce back. They have the resources and talent to make it happen and wars always re-energize people to do more.

Now consider the lands invaded by US Deep state - Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, etc. What has been the end result so far?