Cyrano wrote:Bad timing actually... with the heightened threat perception due to Russian invasion, all kinds of arms, including platforms like Rafale and it's bombs and missiles will be in high demand for some years to come.
India will have to pay through its nose, and wait until other EU countries get preferential delivery.
Idiotic thinking and procurement policy by India. To think that we spend a lot more each year in all kinds of subsidies and most of that money disappears like water poured on sand.
India will certainly pay through her nose, but that will result in a second Rafale line in India. The first line at Merignac will continue to build Rafales as well, for France and international clients. Dassault just received the first down payment from UAE last week and therefore their orders are now slotted in the order logbook at Merignac.
RAFALE CONTRACT FOR THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES ENTERS INTO THE ORDER BACKLOG
https://www.dassault-aviation.com/en/gr ... r-backlog/
19 April 2022
The concern for India is not in delivery schedule, but whether a repeat order will actually come. RaGa will come out with guns blazing and conduct voodoo dances with a NaMo doll, if a repeat Rafale order comes through.
However, a new Rafale deal could end up looking something like this;
* Rafale assembly line for IAF and Navy (but this will have to translate into an order of 100+ aircraft). My assumption is 74 for IAF and 26 for Navy, at minimum. That is 100 aircraft and is the bare minimum that Dassault will need to setup a second line.
* Assembly line will produce around 12 aircraft a year, so around 8+ years to complete 100 aircraft. Please don't remind the IAF about squadron shortage. When there are imports coming, there is no squadron shortage.
* Post assembly, the line will convert into a MROU facility for Indian and international Rafale customers (Indonesia, UAE and Egypt). From nose to tail (including turbofan), a full fledged MROU facility.
* As part of the offsets, the GTRE-Safran venture for a 110kn turbofan for AMCA will be formalized. Remember, the current Air Chief wants the tech from the 114 MRFA deal to flow into the AMCA program. This turbofan program is a viable and visible option for all parties involved.
* When the line at Merignac winds down Rafale production in the 2030s, it will (slowly) scale up for FCAS - France's VLO aircraft program. Like Rafale, FCAS will be delayed. But the Rafale line in India, will continue well into the 2030s. Dassault will make a financial killing operating two Rafale lines and will be laughing all the way to the bank.
* MoD will have the wonderful honour of publishing in their annual achievement brochure that Rafale is 100% indigenous and All Izz Well
But just like the Sukhoi Saga, an Indian assembled Rafale will cost more than when built in France. But MoD will say there is ToT and the nation will believe it. And RaGa - to his dying day - will continue to beat the drum that NaMo stole jobs from HAL and gave it to Anil Ambani.
Cost of this magnum opus? $20 billion, at minimum. I am being conservative. But ToT is there...