Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Deans]

Sorry, what has this got to do with his military analysis. Even BillyBoyKlangton was one but he did his job.

He has kinda gone off in deep end and is mostly now going for alt right demographic since that is only group that will ignore his convictions, his analysis are mostly targeted to support that demo with outlandish statements like Ukraine has no artillery, Russia has already won (in Apr), Javelins are useless etc.

I agree his views are at one end of the spectrum. For e.g. I don't believe (nor do any friends in Russia I know) that Kiev was masterful deception. It was probably a bad Eff up - combination of zero intel, poor execution and no preparation. It was like saying The Germans reaching the gates of Moscow in 1941 was masterful deception. That said, some of what he says is logical and his current views reflect the actual situation more accurately than Western MSM. I think his views give some useful inputs for me to reach my own conclusion.

[ks_sachin]

He says---she says...You trust him. I will trust some of our senior officers and their analysis.

You are entitled to your opinion. However what Scott says and what is reality on the ground are matching, so, I prefer my conclusion to override yours. Thanks.

Good luck to you my friend. To each his own.

[ldev]

Bottom line is that after 95 days of fighting Russia has captured only about an incremental 15% of Ukranian territory in addition to the 5% that consists of Crimea that they have had in their possession since 2014. In the process, according to the US DOD, they have lost (destroyed or rendered inoperable) about 1000 tanks, 350 artillery pieces and 30 aircraft and have deployed 110 BTGs of the operational 140 BTGs in the entire Russian ground forces (80% of their ground forces are deployed in Ukraine). They are running short of manpower and have increased the age for service in the Russian army from 40 to 50 and I could be wrong here but for specialists the age limit has been totally scrapped. Maybe Deans that confirm that change applicable for specialists. I have also not seen reports in the last few days of long range missile strikes into western Ukraine.

With Ukraine getting Harpoon anti ship missiles in a coastal defence role, any Russian attack from the sea into Odessa will be difficult. So I would hazard a guess that once the areas(oblasts) of Donbass and Luhansk are totally under their control, Russia could declare a ceasefire, pause and regroup for several months and then assess whether to launch fresh attacks to try and capture Odessa.

[NRao]

Bottom line is that after 95 days of fighting Russia has captured only about an incremental 15% of Ukranian territory in addition to the 5% that consists of Crimea that they have had in their possession since 2014. In the process, according to the US DOD, they have lost (destroyed or rendered inoperable) about 1000 tanks, 350 artillery pieces and 30 aircraft and have deployed 110 BTGs of the operational 140 BTGs in the entire Russian ground forces (80% of their ground forces are deployed in Ukraine). .........
.

So, all that news about Kissinger, NY Times, French, German, Italian, etc suggesting peace talks is a big fat hoax? Am I to believe that lousy English neocon wrote a page full of crap to distract all of us? Successfully?

Where is Nina when we really need her? Need to have USDOD investigated.

BTW, do you have a URL?

Thanks

[NRao]

Ukraine receives Harpoon missiles and howitzers, says defence minister

Self-propelled howitzers.

[ks_sachin]

NRao who is Nina?
Have heard of Natasha and Svetlana but no Nina.

Deans - Now that the Russians have refined their tactics and general sanity seems to be prevailing at a tactical level any insight into whether then have modified tactics to cater to the ATGM proliferation. Are we seeing a reduction in tank casualties from the Russian side?

Thanks for your response in advance.

[Maria]

That Scott Ritter article is a keeper.....[/i]

Eta Russiye Maskirovka, tavarisch drugye!

[Deans]

NRao who is Nina?
Have heard of Natasha and Svetlana but no Nina.

Deans - Now that the Russians have refined their tactics and general sanity seems to be prevailing at a tactical level any insight into whether then have modified tactics to cater to the ATGM proliferation. Are we seeing a reduction in tank casualties from the Russian side?

Thanks for your response in advance.

Yes, there's a significant reduction in tank casualties. I believe HALF of all Russian tank losses were in the first 2 weeks, when they advanced with
little regard for recon, flank protection or support elements.

There was a report of T-64 tanks being moved from Russian warehouses into the front. However, there was an explanation that they were being
used to guard supply routes (as mobile bunkers) - like it was proposed to use T-55s along our LOC and to resupply rebels in the DPR & LPR who were more used to the T-64.

[Deans]

Bottom line is that after 95 days of fighting Russia has captured only about an incremental 15% of Ukranian territory in addition to the 5% that consists of Crimea that they have had in their possession since 2014. In the process, according to the US DOD, they have lost (destroyed or rendered inoperable) about 1000 tanks, 350 artillery pieces and 30 aircraft and have deployed 110 BTGs of the operational 140 BTGs in the entire Russian ground forces (80% of their ground forces are deployed in Ukraine). .........
.

So, all that news about Kissinger, NY Times, French, German, Italian, etc suggesting peace talks is a big fat hoax? Am I to believe that lousy English neocon wrote a page full of crap to distract all of us? Successfully?

Where is Nina when we really need her? Need to have USDOD investigated.

BTW, do you have a URL?

Thanks

30 aircraft lost is low. RuAF fighter aircraft have flown between 20 & 25,000 sorties so far. Their rate of production can replace these
losses. IAF losses against Pak were approx 10 per 1000 sorties.

Assuming 1000 tanks were lost, that would be acceptable, Russian first line reserves (tanks ready for action with minor servicing) can probably replace those losses. Also many damaged tanks can be repaired and many captured Ukraine tanks are being used by DPR.LPR militia.

The figure of 110 BTG's seems to be correct. Russia has about 190 in their ORBAT ( not 140). But a lot of other formations are at brigade level.

[ShivS]

At the end of the day the key is that in a war of attrition, the Russians can replace their equipment losses far more effectively than Ukraine. Compounding that is the fact that bottling up the Black Sea locks up a large amount of Ukraine exports and lastly the war is being fought in Ukraine so the civilian losses are Ukrainian.

Horrific situation if it continues for much more time.

[John]

30 aircraft lost is low. RuAF fighter aircraft have flown between 20 & 25,000 sorties so far. Their rate of production can replace these
losses. IAF losses against Pak were approx 1.5 per 1000 sorties.

Assuming 1000 tanks were lost, that would be acceptable, Russian first line reserves (tanks ready for action with minor servicing) can probably replace those losses. Also many damaged tanks can be repaired and many captured Ukraine tanks are being used by DPR.LPR militia.

The figure of 110 BTG's seems to be correct. Russia has about 190 in their ORBAT ( not 140). But a lot of other formations are at brigade level.

For AC losses: You cannot compare with IAF sorties most of RusAF sorties are stand-off attacks, very few patrols to intercept to Ukr AF and even CAS attacks are done by lobbing rockets in ballistic path while flying low. Even from Russian propaganda vids only time they have done true bombing run in last month or two is in Mariupol. If IAF had done that our losses will be non existent.

In fact If you go look at vids recorded from folks in Ukraine, Donetsk, Crimea etc right now Ukraine AF and Russian AF AC vids are almost even (latter has dropped off significantly) which indicates something is seriously going wrong RusAF or they are using plasma stealth and avoiding camera jk.

For Vehicle losses: we are at around 738 tanks lost, 411 AFV, 813 IFV. Those are bad losses russia might be withstand it for now but I can’t see them absorbing this is long run and not having to resort to sending outdated equipment like T-62 and BMP-1 from reserve to front line.

But I think the biggest loss is lives lost which is main reason for strat changes by Putin IMO. Current figures which I believe is around 40k+ (dead and seriously injured) which in 3 month span is quite heavy and we are looking at heavy militia losses from separatists as well. Given Russia declining/aging population and western exodus among millennial crowd it will have huge demo impact, forcing Russia to turn to older 40+ yr old.

[Baikul]

Article in The Atlantic on military lessons from this war.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ar/638423/

Bottom line:

What is clear, though, is that investing in large World War II–era materiel such as the heavy tank, enormous aircraft carrier, and super-expensive fixed-wing aircraft has never been riskier. As far less expensive but still lethal systems continue to improve, the investment that will be required to protect larger, more expensive weapons systems will be financially crippling, even for the American military. Instead, political and military leaders will need to start conceiving of an entirely different battlefield, full of lighter, smaller, more mobile, and in many cases autonomous or remotely operated weapons. In essence, they will need to prepare for the first wars of the 21st century.

[ldev]

Bottom line is that after 95 days of fighting Russia has captured only about an incremental 15% of Ukranian territory in addition to the 5% that consists of Crimea that they have had in their possession since 2014. In the process, according to the US DOD, they have lost (destroyed or rendered inoperable) about 1000 tanks, 350 artillery pieces and 30 aircraft and have deployed 110 BTGs of the operational 140 BTGs in the entire Russian ground forces (80% of their ground forces are deployed in Ukraine). .........
.

So, all that news about Kissinger, NY Times, French, German, Italian, etc suggesting peace talks is a big fat hoax? Am I to believe that lousy English neocon wrote a page full of crap to distract all of us? Successfully?

Where is Nina when we really need her? Need to have USDOD investigated.

BTW, do you have a URL?

Thanks

NRao, people like Kissinger and others are concerned about this conflict spiraling out of control and escalating to the point that it is a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia if increasingly lethal weapons are supplied to Ukraine and that is the reason that they are calling for negotiations. Ukraine wants this now and it could be approved/may already have been approved to be supplied:

Senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have pleaded in recent weeks for the US and its allies to provide the Multiple Launch Rocket System, or MLRS. The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometers — much farther than any of the systems Ukraine already has — which the Ukrainians argue could be a gamechanger in their war against Russia.

The Russians predictably are angry about this

On Friday, after CNN first reported the news, Russians warned that the United States will "cross a red line" if it supplies the systems to Ukraine.
"The US intends to discuss the issue of supplying Ukraine with these weapons as soon as next week," Olga Skabeeva, a prominent Russian TV host, said on her high-profile show on the state network Rossiya-1. "At the present moment, the issue is being addressed by the US presidential administration. So now, we are not even talking about tactical weapons anymore, but about the operational-tactical weapons."
She continued: "The US MLRS can launch shells over 500 kilometers. And if the Americans do this, they will clearly cross a red line, and we will record an attempt to provoke a very harsh response from Russia."
While Skabeeva does not speak for the Kremlin, her views frequently reflect official thinking.

The US concern about this supply has been that it will allow Ukraine to attack targets in Russia, disrupting Russian supply lines inside Russia. The question is how will Russia view the war being brought into it's territory.

One major hang-up, the sources said, had been the rocket systems' extensive range. The MLRS and its lighter-weight version, the HIMARS, can launch as far as 300km, or 186 miles, depending on the type of munition. They are fired from a mobile vehicle at land-based targets, which would allow the Ukrainians to more easily strike targets inside Russia.

US preparing to approve advanced long-range rocket system for Ukraine as Russian TV host warns of crossing a 'red line'

Link for the US DOD mAY 26 background briefing:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcript ... -briefing/

[ldev]

...

Deans, the shortage of manpower seems to be biting. The Duma has increased the age limit for service in the Russian forces from 40 to 65!!

[NRao]

NRao who is Nina?
Have heard of Natasha and Svetlana but no Nina.

Starts around the Clinton-Trump election era: Sussmann Trial: Mook outs Clinton as 'Russiagate' shot-caller, when some info was attributed to Russian disinformation.

Jump 4 yrs to Biden-Trump elections. A story pops out that Hunter Biden's laptop reveals something about Bidens and Ukraine. And Hunter Biden story is Russian disinfo, dozens of former intel officials say, 50 US intel officers falsely vouch that it is Russian disinformation.

April, 2022, Barack comes out of retirement to help his deputy. ‘Regulation has to be part of the answer’ to combating online disinformation, Barack Obama said at Stanford event.

And, the duty bound deputy, current President, obliges, with establishing a Disinformation Governance Board under DHS! And, appoints Nina Jankowicz as the Director. She had the authority to essentially cancel anyone on this earth - with basically CAATSA like powers.

Well, the project does not go to plan. And, How an expert on online disinformation and harassment became the target of both

Yes, "and expert on online disinformation" - she interned for none other than Oldimir Olenskyy in the holy city of Kiev, resigns within days, ....... because of "disinformation" - about her of course.

Google her YT presence - she used to be an actress and has some very funny vids - some actually making fun of Republicans (who predictably torched her appointment in the Senate).

Sorry for the long narrative, but we are going through the same cycle with UKR at the short end of the stick. There are guys like Kamil Galeev (a think tanker in DC) that have 40 tweet threads on how Russia is running out of men. When actually it is Ukraine that has run out of men. Lira has been saying how UKR men are absconding and how there are 5/6/7 notices, pasted on doors, from the gov, of draft notices.

[Deans]

For AC losses: You cannot compare with IAF sorties most of RusAF sorties are stand-off attacks, very few patrols to intercept to Ukr AF and even CAS attacks are done by lobbing rockets in ballistic path while flying low. Even from Russian propaganda vids only time they have done true bombing run in last month or two is in Mariupol. If IAF had done that our losses will be non existent.

In fact If you go look at vids recorded from folks in Ukraine, Donetsk, Crimea etc right now Ukraine AF and Russian AF AC vids are almost even (latter has dropped off significantly) which indicates something is seriously going wrong RusAF or they are using plasma stealth and avoiding camera jk.

For Vehicle losses: we are at around 738 tanks lost, 411 AFV, 813 IFV. Those are bad losses russia might be withstand it for now but I can’t see them absorbing this is long run and not having to resort to sending outdated equipment like T-62 and BMP-1 from reserve to front line.

But I think the biggest loss is lives lost which is main reason for strat changes by Putin IMO. Current figures which I believe is around 40k+ (dead and seriously injured) which in 3 month span is quite heavy and we are looking at heavy militia losses from separatists as well. Given Russia declining/aging population and western exodus among millennial crowd it will have huge demo impact, forcing Russia to turn to older 40+ yr old.

I think we agree on the broad figures. I know aircraft losses across conflicts are not comparable, but I would have expected higher losses from
the RuAF, given their sortie rate, purely from SAM's and pilot error / maintenance related losses. They have maintained roughly the same rate of
sorties since mid May.

738 tanks sounds realistic. It is a high percentage of the tank strength that started the operation, but a small percentage of the roughly 8000 modern tanks (72 upgrades+) they have. I'm discounting the official figure of 13,000 tanks. After the first month, their monthly losses probably equal production capacity.

40k losses is also realistic, because Pentagon estimates of Ukrainian losses were around 30k, 2 weeks ago (they exclude POW from Azov and in ther current operations) and I would expect Russia, as the attacking side to have higher losses, so it comes down to who can last longer.

[NRao]

NRao, people like Kissinger and others are concerned about this conflict spiraling out of control and escalating to the point that it is a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia if increasingly lethal weapons are supplied to Ukraine and that is the reason that they are calling for negotiations. Ukraine wants this now and it could be approved/may already have been approved to be supplied:

Senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have pleaded in recent weeks for the US and its allies to provide the Multiple Launch Rocket System, or MLRS. The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometers — much farther than any of the systems Ukraine already has — which the Ukrainians argue could be a gamechanger in their war against Russia.

Thanks for the response.

But, it just does not add up, on two counts.

How does UKR winning streak force NATO to enter the picture. I get the part that Russia escalates to tactical nukes - but IF they are used, it will be within UKR. Not NATO territory.

Secondly, you have left out my other points, NYT, Tisdall, France + Germany + Italy, etc. Are they all concerned about nukes? (I did not see that in the NYT/Tisdall articles)(nor in the 4 head's of state)

CNN or IWS are not sources. Or very biased sources. Not data points for me.

The US concern about this supply has been that it will allow Ukraine to attack targets in Russia, disrupting Russian supply lines inside Russia. The question is how will Russia view the war being brought into it's territory.

A couple of points here:

* NATO/US have been creeping up the escalation ladder themselves
* There is NO question on how Russia will view the war being brought to its territory - IF it is because of American supplied weapons - Biden has assurances that UKR will not use it for that purpose

This - along with the nukes - is fear mongering. Heck Putin placed his nuclear command on high alert in FEBRUARY. So, why is CNN not reporting it and Biden sending more lethal arms? Silly.

Will check that DoD briefing, but DoD parrots State Dept - the better do (IF the DoD wants to replenish their stock)

I have no problem calling Russia an invader - they did invade, there is no doubt about that - AND it is WRONG (to put it very mildly)

However, this war has been predicted for at least a decade now. Let me know and I can provide URLs if desired. Cohen/Mearsheimer/and one more guy at Harvard have been warning at least since 2015. As much as Russia invaded, it is a rational war that the West or anyone else cannot deny. Just cannot.

The escalations started in 1990. This conflict is nothing new and I have posted at least two sources on this matter

And, please listen to Jaishankar's speeches at least in the past two years - he clearly warns the West.

[NRao]

A quick word on old-tanks and old-men. Both Russian.

The plan is to deploy both in areas already liberated. And, not in conflict zones.

The old tanks would help with maintaining peace, assist law enforcement if needed.

And, the older people in admin and rebuilding efforts.

[Baikul]

.. ……

But I think the biggest loss is lives lost which is main reason for strat changes by Putin IMO. Current figures which I believe is around 40k+ (dead and seriously injured) which in 3 month span is quite heavy and we are looking at heavy militia losses from separatists as well. …..

….

40k losses is also realistic, because Pentagon estimates of Ukrainian losses were around 30k, 2 weeks ago (they exclude POW from Azov and in ther current operations) and I would expect Russia, as the attacking side to have higher losses, so it comes down to who can last longer.

I want to explore this 40k casualty figure.

Let’s do the math on this.

I assume a BTG has 800 soldiers in all. 600-800 is the generally accepted range.

If there are Russian 110 BTGs fighting in Ukraine, that means that casualties have accounted for 40,000/(110*800) is approx 45 percent casualty rate

Assume 140 BTGs and the casualty rate is close to 36 percent.

These are both insane numbers. The generally accepted figure is that a casualty rate of 20-30 percent implies that a military unit is combat ineffective.

I mean even if you assume that all 190,000 Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine that still gives a casualty rate of 21 percent!

I’d think there are many possibilities here, starting from questioning the data, all the way to accepting that Russia has simply shrugged off these casualty numbers for now by just rotating their BTGs.

A quick word on old-tanks and old-men. Both Russian.
….

I always believed that these older tanks would be used in very specific ways, and not as a primary offensive platform. A hull down tank in a defensive position is still a very dangerous thing.

[John]

A quick word on old-tanks and old-men. Both Russian.

The plan is to deploy both in areas already liberated. And, not in conflict zones.

The old tanks would help with maintaining peace, assist law enforcement if needed.

And, the older people in admin and rebuilding efforts.

IMO You don’t use old tanks for anything other than sheer desperation or you want to throw some expendable units with those separatists. Name one country that did that (even Russia doesn’t do it in Syria) Why?

Tanks are only to be used as offensive spearheads not for peace keeping missions that’s why you have MRAPs why? Because tanks are not easy to maneuver in cities, take up lot of resources (especially old tank), cannot transport troop, not effective at urban fighting, venerable to ambushes (we already saw partisan blow up T-72 in live broadcast in Mariupol outskirts) and their presence typically antagonizes locals.

We already few base T-72 and T-64 in combat so not sure where there is any proof that old tanks are for peacekeeping.

https://twitter.com/heritora/status/153 ... SpGNsMelkw

I think we agree on the broad figures. I know aircraft losses across conflicts are not comparable, but I would have expected higher losses from
the RuAF, given their sortie rate, purely from SAM's and pilot error / maintenance related losses. They have maintained roughly the same rate of
sorties since mid May.

I think problem is RusAF unlike IAF doesn’t release any losses from accidents/friendly fire, so it’s really hard to know how many they are losing. Russia hasn’t even acknowledged the friendly shoot down in Belarus that happened in early March and we only know that due to Belarus first responders putting in social media.

[Deans]

….

40k losses is also realistic, because Pentagon estimates of Ukrainian losses were around 30k, 2 weeks ago (they exclude POW from Azov and in ther current operations) and I would expect Russia, as the attacking side to have higher losses, so it comes down to who can last longer.

I want to explore this 40k casualty figure.
Let’s do the math on this.
I assume a BTG has 800 soldiers in all. 600-800 is the generally accepted range.

If there are Russian 110 BTGs fighting in Ukraine, that means that casualties have accounted for 40,000/(110*800) is approx 45 percent casualty rate

Assume 140 BTGs and the casualty rate is close to 36 percent.

These are both insane numbers. The generally accepted figure is that a casualty rate of 20-30 percent implies that a military unit is combat ineffective.

I mean even if you assume that all 190,000 Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine that still gives a casualty rate of 21 percent!

I’d think there are many possibilities here, starting from questioning the data, all the way to accepting that Russia has simply shrugged off these casualty numbers for now by just rotating their BTGs.

I've tried to look at this too.

In a high intensity mechanized war, between 2 roughly equal sides, the Yom Kippur war of 1973 is the closest equivalent. It had 11500 Israeli casualties in 20 days. I'm listing Israel, as its doctrine, more than any other country, is to minimize casualties and it had roughly the same force as the Russians in Ukraine. In the Kargil war, our units in combat took about 10% casualties in a month of fighting.
So 40k casualties (mostly wounded) in 90 days is not unrealistic.

Some of the wounded will return to combat.
Some of the BTG' have had replacements of men and material (during a 2 week lull in fighting). A Russian brigade of 3 battalions has sent
2 BTG's to the war, so there is the equivalent of 1 BTG in reserve.

The Russian army strength of 190,000 does not include:
1. Donetsk and Luhansk militia - 7 rifle brigades of roughly 25,000 men.
2. Wagner group and Chechen fighters - approx 15,000 men.

There are around 10,000 skilled reserves from among contact soldiers (national guard equivalent) who have probably been called up.
There are approx 1 million conscripts who have served in the last 4 years. Assuming half have the relevant skills and 10% of those volunteer
to serve in Russian territory (which will be defined to include Donbass), that is another 50,000 men. Or former conscripts can replace combat ready brigades now based in the Crimea, Armenia (peacekeeping force) and Central Asia.
All this can be done without changing the law to allow general mobilization.

As I have suggested in previous posts, it comes down to which side's units will become combat ineffective first and who has the greater will to fight.

[NRao]

A YT source pointed out that the day the RU got a Theater Commander, things changed. Prior to that he claims, there were multiple area commanders - implying they did not work in unison (which is very strange)




The WashPost URL says it all "Ukraine war tide turns"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ide-turns/

Seventy people from my battalion were injured in the last week,” said a soldier and ambulance driver just outside the hospital gates who identified himself only as Vlad, 29. “I lost too many friends; it’s hard for me. I don’t know how many. … It’s getting worse every day.”

The night before, he said, the shelling was so loud he hardly got any sleep. “It’s all artillery bombing down,” he said. “All the wounded are coming from shrapnel. Most guys in the trenches haven’t even seen the enemy face-to-face

Long-range artillery. Rest used as mops.

NY Times:

Shrapnel in the forests and shells from the sky: ‘I’ve never seen such hell.’

Under the fire of Russia’s long-range arsenal and facing a desperate need for ammunition and weapons, Ukrainian forces remain outgunned on the long and pockmarked eastern front, according to military analysts, Ukrainian officials and soldiers on the ground.

Just one engagement on Thursday and Friday on a small swath of the line, in a forest north of the town of Sloviansk, sent about a dozen Ukrainian soldiers to a military hospital with harrowing shrapnel wounds.

“You ask how the fighting is going,” said Oleksandr Kolesnikov, the commander of a company of soldiers fighting in the forest, interviewed on an ambulance gurney outside a military hospital in Kramatorsk. “There was a commander of the company. He was killed. There was another commander. He was killed. A third commander was wounded. I am the fourth.”

[NRao]

In addition to the two above:

Time :: Ukraine Is in Worse Shape than You Think
WashPost :: Ukraine suffers on battlefield while pleading for U.S. arms
Bloomburg :: Russian Wins in Eastern Ukraine Spark Debate Over Course of War
Guardian :: Russia’s ‘cauldron’ tactic may be tipping Donbas battle in its favour
Daily Mail :: Boris Johnson warns Russia is 'chewing through ground' in eastern Ukraine as he urges more support for Kyiv forces

[Baikul]

…..
For AC losses: You cannot compare with IAF sorties most of RusAF sorties are stand-off attacks, very few patrols to intercept to Ukr AF and even CAS attacks are done by lobbing rockets in ballistic path while flying low.

In fact If you go look at vids recorded from folks in Ukraine, Donetsk, Crimea etc right now Ukraine AF and Russian AF AC vids are almost even (latter has dropped off significantly) which indicates something is seriously going wrong RusAF or they are using plasma stealth and avoiding camera jk.
…...

I’d have thought that too about RuAFexcept that a few of the soldiers quoted in the story linked by NRao ji above

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ide-turns/

Specifically ask for antiaircraft systems as a priority. I wonder why that is. Quoting

“Help us with weapons. The most important is antiaircraft. Close the sky — it’s the civilians who are suffering the most.”

And

In an Instagram post on Friday, Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, said Ukrainian forces needed the weaponry “yesterday,” as well as other systems that have been requested, such as air defense systems and tanks.

It’s only two people I know, but maybe there’s something going on.

[Roop]

Re. Scott Ritter:

He has kinda gone off in deep end and is mostly now going for alt right demographic since that is only group that will ignore his convictions ...

"Alt-right demographic" ??? That is the kind of irrelevant platitude / talking-point that comes from Foggy Bottom and the Neocons. It has zero relevance to the war.

...his ... outlandish statements like ... Javelins are useless etc. ...

You are just misquoting/distorting what he said. He never said Javelins were useless, he said they would be useless in determining the outcome of the war. And he was right -- Javelins/NLAWS/whatever entered Ukr, some were used, many were destroyed by the Russians before use. So Russia has achieved its strategic aims of this SMO, Javelins or no Javeleins, NLAWS or no NLAWS, FH77 ULH or no FH77 ULH.

(Added later) And Scott Ritter was not the only one to predict this, there was another retired US ARmy officer to predicted pretty much the same -- Lt Col Dan MacGregor.

[sanjaykumar]

What’s the legal position on weapons transfer?

Are nlaws outlaws?

[John]

Re. Scott Ritter:

He has kinda gone off in deep end and is mostly now going for alt right demographic since that is only group that will ignore his convictions ...

"Alt-right demographic" ??? That is the kind of irrelevant platitude / talking-point that comes from Foggy Bottom and the Neocons. It has zero relevance to the war.

...his ... outlandish statements like ... Javelins are useless etc. ...

You are just misquoting/distorting what he said. He never said Javelins were useless, he said they would be useless in determining the outcome of the war. And he was right -- Javelins/NLAWS/whatever entered Ukr, some were used, many were destroyed by the Russians before use. So Russia has achieved its strategic aims of this SMO, Javelins or no Javeleins, NLAWS or no NLAWS, FH77 ULH or no FH77 ULH.

(Added later) And Scott Ritter was not the only one to predict this, there was another retired US ARmy officer to predicted pretty much the same -- Lt Col Dan MacGregor.

Please watch the video he claims he has heard from Russian source that missile are ineffective because they are older variants and how they have been struck 5-6 times. But no one has made such a claim and there is no proof either of such a claim. His argument itself make no sense lethality didn’t increase with newer variants the strike % did and it is not easy to repair damage from top down attack vs rpg attack on frontal ERA.

https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/15 ... 7aKMxxcXtg

I’d have thought that too about RuAFexcept that a few of the soldiers quoted in the story linked by NRao ji above

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ide-turns/

Specifically ask for antiaircraft systems as a priority. I wonder why that is. Quoting

You still need a supply anti aircraft missiles for deterrence and if Russia gets wind that supply is running low I am pretty sure they will start their air campaign to levels we saw at the start of conflict. So where are the supplies going? Currently Manpads are being used to shoot down drones and longer range missile like Buk and S-300 are being used against cruise missiles

Anyway looks like Russian forces capture up to center of Severodonetsk while Ukranian are trying to ramp up attacks in Kherson and have made some progress would be interesting who can finish their objective earlier.

Russian in center of city

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/153 ... 7aKMxxcXtg

Ukraine offensive
https://twitter.com/jimmysecuk/status/1 ... 7aKMxxcXtg

[banrjeer]

...

Deans, the shortage of manpower seems to be biting. The Duma has increased the age limit for service in the Russian forces from 40 to 65!!

A huge number of Ukrainian prisoners you see are quite old. quite a lot of grey haired people. They are scraping the barrel too. I see some people harping about 15% onlee... etc

And that's quite a large land grab by any standard. They have started paying pensions in roubles and schools are back in session in some parts.
The Indian state machinery has nowhere close to any such a capability in capturing and holding territory. It cant even manage garden variety dissent within its own borders.

[Deans]

A YT source pointed out that the day the RU got a Theater Commander, things changed. Prior to that he claims, there were multiple area commanders - implying they did not work in unison (which is very strange)

Not having a theatre commander was no different from how India might fight a war with Pak /China. Pak for e.g. would be handled by the Northern, Western, Central, South West and Southern commands of IA.
Similarly, the Ukraine operation involved men from 3 of Russia's 5 military districts, but each had its own zone of operations. Once phase 1 ended and the focus shifted almost entirely to the Donbass, it made sense to have 1 commander in charge. The Southern military district commander - who was responsible for the Donbass and the Kherson operation and had made most progress (also the senior most), was natural choice to lead.

[Deans]

Deans, the shortage of manpower seems to be biting. The Duma has increased the age limit for service in the Russian forces from 40 to 65!!

A huge number of Ukrainian prisoners you see are quite old. quite a lot of grey haired people. They are scraping the barrel too. I see some people harping about 15% onlee... etc

The age limit may have increased, but there is no significant recruitment in the older age group for Russia. They have a large pool of former conscriptsto choose from. It is more to enable some specialists to re-enlist. For e.g. doctors or maintenance technicians for T-64 tanks.

[Cyrano]

From many Ukr PoWs interviewed on the Russian side, it does seem that they are conscripts of at least 40+ age. Many of them surrendered in groups of a dozen to up to 50. Experienced Ukr regular troops and militias are sending these older conscripts to the front line trenches with inadequate equipment, no training and no orders as cannon fodder. When they get overwhelmed, the troops behind retreat without facing the enemy or trying to save these conscripts. They dont even bother to rescue their wounded or recover their dead. Similar to what Pakis did to their irregulars in J&K in 47 or in Kargil.

Regular AFU are totally under Azov and SBU control - they have no credibility or voice left within the Kiev regime since they haven't shown any success, and they don't decide much but are expected to win in suicidal missions like snake island and recent Kherson counter offensive - which serve no purpose except to generate media footage - but they have failed.

[Cyrano]

Article in The Atlantic on military lessons from this war.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ar/638423/

Bottom line:

What is clear, though, is that investing in large World War II–era materiel such as the heavy tank, enormous aircraft carrier, and super-expensive fixed-wing aircraft has never been riskier. As far less expensive but still lethal systems continue to improve, the investment that will be required to protect larger, more expensive weapons systems will be financially crippling, even for the American military. Instead, political and military leaders will need to start conceiving of an entirely different battlefield, full of lighter, smaller, more mobile, and in many cases autonomous or remotely operated weapons. In essence, they will need to prepare for the first wars of the 21st century.

Funny that the Mreekan thinksters while claiming "Russia will lose onree" they are also dhoti shivering!

[Anoop]

https://youtu.be/o5JOXXD3hBw

Lt. Gen.. Raj Shukla (R) discusses some lessons for India from the conflict.

[kit]

The Russians have now more money than when they started off with., they have all the raw materials they need to build all sorts of weapons and their factories are humming along nicely, the population is galvanised into action, they WILL grind the Uke s to dust by the looks of it

Idiotsky would leave whatever is left to someone and live off his wealth in US

Europe will be left holding the baby by the looks of it.. and its not the baby anyone want but a jihadi one., all those mercenaries and co with their weapons will be looking for jobs

[Cyrano]

And some 5.5 million Ukr refugees who will spice up the Eu society !

[NRao]

Inside Ukraine’s Daring Helicopter Missions Into Russian-Occupied Mariupol (to resupply Azovstal)

Interesting. Pictures and some videos. This tweet has a nice vid on the topic

________________________________

Calls for UAVs as a supply vehicle.

[Deans]

The Russians have now more money than when they started off with., they have all the raw materials they need to build all sorts of weapons and their factories are humming along nicely, the population is galvanised into action, they WILL grind the Uke s to dust by the looks of it

US /NATO made a series of assumptions about Russia and most look being completely wrong.
- Anti War protests will lead to pressure on Putin for a ceasefire and restoring the status quo, or even an internal coup. This is because:
- Russian casualties will be so high, that Russia will have to order total mobilization (as Ukraine did) leading to anti war protests.... &
- Sanctions will destroy the Russian economy, leading to widespread protests (like those that caused the 1917 revolution).

- Russia will run out of missiles / PGMs by end March.
- Large scale defection /desertion of Russian soldiers.
- Russians will bleed attacking the Donbass line (left bank of the Seversky-Donets river) which was prepared over the last 7 years.
- Ditto for fighting in cities.

Larger point for India to consider is weather we can sustain a war for 3 months and maintain national morale.

[NRao]

Larger point for India to consider is weather we can sustain a war for 3 months and maintain national morale.

Without a MIC support?

[John]

The Russians have now more money than when they started off with., they have all the raw materials they need to build all sorts of weapons and their factories are humming along nicely, the population is galvanised into action, they WILL grind the Uke s to dust by the looks of it

US /NATO made a series of assumptions about Russia and most look being completely wrong.
- Anti War protests will lead to pressure on Putin for a ceasefire and restoring the status quo, or even an internal coup. This is because:
- Russian casualties will be so high, that Russia will have to order total mobilization (as Ukraine did) leading to anti war protests.... &
- Sanctions will destroy the Russian economy, leading to widespread protests (like those that caused the 1917 revolution).

- Russia will run out of missiles / PGMs by end March.
- Large scale defection /desertion of Russian soldiers.
- Russians will bleed attacking the Donbass line (left bank of the Seversky-Donets river) which was prepared over the last 7 years.
- Ditto for fighting in cities.

Larger point for India to consider is weather we can sustain a war for 3 months and maintain national morale.

Sticking to military not politics/economy all those assumptions are right.

Russia did run out of missiles to some extent they been forced to use expensive and inaccurate AshM to help extend it and we haven’t seen any bombing runs since March let alone with LGB. Even supposed Kalbir missiles being fired now are reportedly Klub Ashm.

All indications are casualties in Donbas are quite high, Igor discussed that in great extent a week ago how they need full mobilizations in Russian side as Seperatists cannot sustain this level of fighting themselves.

US Intel predicted in Feb, Russia would overrun the east in two weeks with heavy casualties hence Russia went with Kyiv and complex encirclement approach in the beginning as Russia believe they could do that quicker and US Intel predicted they do that in a week. So they were wrong in that.

[ldev]

Larger point for India to consider is weather we can sustain a war for 3 months and maintain national morale.

When the war is not fought on your territory it is much easier to maintain national morale. NATO and the US have gone to great lengths not to supply heavy weaponry to Ukraine which will enable attacks into Russia proper such as the decision in the last 24 hours not to supply MLRS with a range of ~300 km which would have brought Russian urban areas in the cross hairs. In the case of India vs Pakistan or India vs China it is almost certain that the next war will not be like the last war fought with either country. The change in weaponry will ensure that missile strikes happen deep into India and vice versa which will have a bearing on national morale.