Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

[NRao]

Switzerland slams the brakes on Denmark’s shipment of military vehicles to Ukraine

[Cyrano]

Saint elensly himself speaking at GlobSec yesterday: from 20:00 onwards



Then follows von der Lying : Her generosity with EU citizen's current and future generations' money is unbelievable! I think she must be exemplary and send at least her entire €364,000/year salary straight to Ukraine, since the considerable perks she enjoys can't be sent. No one seems to mind that she is running democratic EU like a fief

[NRao]

Biden says Ukraine might have to give Russia land in ‘negotiated settlement’

President Biden on Friday declined to rule out Ukraine having to cede part of its territory to Russia in order to end Moscow’s more than three-month-old invasion.

“Does Ukraine have to cede territory to achieve peace?” a reporter asked Biden after his remarks on the May jobs report.

“From the beginning, I’ve said and I’ve been — not everyone’s agreed with me — nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” Biden began his answer. “It’s their territory. I’m not going to tell them what they should and shouldn’t do.

...............................

[Cyrano]

A slightly different perspective on the war and what may happen next : (twitter thread)

https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/ ... 93410?s=20

Oh, Valina T. Mindboggling repository of regurgitated info. : ) (Sorry, could not resist it. Apologies)



Wonder how she missed tagging Walt. She should have got a lot more hits than *just* Mearsheimer. And, if per chance she had tagged Fareed Bhai (yeah, same bloodline. Amazingly), twitter servers would have crashed.

Women have broken the glass ceiling in the world of global politics and global commentary in a big way since the dawn of 21st century and growing strongly. Especially in Europe. For ex: French Govt is led by Madame la premiere ministre and is 50/50 M/F . Not sure if the other 136 genders are represented.

It will make for very interesting and turbulent times ahead.

[Dilbu]

Even if they offer territory at this stage, they will have to wait for Putin to accept the offer. He knows it is only a matter of time before UKR is on the mat and will take his sweet time until all his objectives are achieved. This is egg on the face of NATO and it remains to be seen if they will recover from this debacle.

[Jay]

This is egg on the face of NATO and it remains to be seen if they will recover from this debacle.

Not quite, Dilbu ji. On D-Day 100 days ago, there was no one on this planet who believed that UKR would offer any meaningful resistance and this entire "special operation" would be a repeat of the 2014 RUS campaign of Crimea. UKR accepting the ceasefire is immaterial as it's only a matter of time before it has to accept the inevitable but what's of significance is that Russia lost all meaningful gains it made since the end of cold war. NATO/US will happily wait it out until wilting starts into decay. If this manifests into reality, we will be in deep shit. At this point, once UKR commits to not being part of NATO, RUS must do everything in its influence to get out of sanctions regime else game over for them for another generation.

[Cyrano]

Sanctions have effect only because the economies of the sanctioning countries dominate, and their markets are sought after, their currencies hold value. Suppose these are taken away or significantly eroded, who cares for their sanctions ? The west thought their sanctions will be "crippling" but after many weeks, Russia and the Rouble are doing fine, its the west thats looking at a precipice.

Thats a meaningful gain for Russia, at least as much as the 20+% of Ukrainian territory (= England) it occupies is.

Jay saab, Putin is pushing for a fundamental shift in the power equations and right now, it looks like he is succeeding....

[NRao]

A realist IMO: June 2, 2022:

[Tanaji]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61691816

Macaron trying to broker a ceasefire. Ukraine living up to its Pakraine moniker, increasingly the statements from this country appear full of sense of entitlement.

[NRao]

Women have broken the glass ceiling in the world of global politics and global commentary in a big way since the dawn of 21st century and growing strongly. ........

And, that is great. My beef is with VT and VT alone. Have found her to be a cut-paste "analyst" - crossed paths. One can see it in her thread - starting with the very first one: Mearsheimer was never a Russia-Ukraine guy, he has always been a Russia-NATO/US, not-an-inch-East (of 1990 NATO borders) guy. Not only does she portray Mearsheimer as RU-UKR guy, but squarely places herself - an unknown - as a player in the neocon/realist-nationalist narrative.

Rest of her tweets, in that thread, are cards to build her house.

_____________________________________

............ At this point, once UKR commits to not being part of NATO, RUS must do everything in its influence to get out of sanctions regime else game over for them for another generation.

The script is different, but the plot is the same as 1998. When the Russian banks defaulted and crashed. Yeltsin lost his crown and out of the year long mess arose ............ Mr. Putin. This time with Biden at the helm, the West dusted that plot: Ruble will be rubble (West expected Russian banks to crash this time too). Except that Putin actually was a major actor in the original play (1998).

Italy, Switzerland, and The world is grappling with gravity-defying energy price spikes on everything from gasoline and natural gas to coal. Some fear this may just be the beginning.

ALL that is in the West. Russia WRT food, or energy, or even arms (mil budget is $65 billion) is a very safe island.

[NRao]

^^^^^

I think that Russia, China, and India, among other nations have come to the conclusion that the only way to break the current Western designed systems - financial in particular - is to come up with robust alternatives that anyone can switch to at a moments notice.

.......................

Seems like BIF brigade and ISI has begun their work on behalf of the west cabal., targeted killings in Kashmir and Kejri boy crying for the pandits all on cue

My sense is that Blinken is struggling to build an Azov Battalion in India, and the best response he has come up with is what you have posted. (Aside: There is a window here where the world is justifiably distracted and Blinken has lost his hallo - that he never had. GoI could very easily - much like Putin - turn this against the US/EU. For another thread.)

However, while the neocons are regrouping in Europe, I think the script has worked fairly well in Pakistan. I would take IK's observations a lot more seriously, especially the de-nuclearization of Pakistan. IMO, that template, very, very broadly speaking will be applied to India too. Granted it will not be as easy. However, the US will have the backing of China for sure, and India *maybe* backed by Russia. With Israel and Japan tilting the balance.

Meanwhile, the more I think about it, as far as "multipolar" is concerned there just has to be a lot of convergence between India and Russia, at this point.

Fun times

[S_Madhukar]

What EU does not understand is Russia will always be their neighbour. And unlike last century no yank will be willing to sacrifice again, if any all the Euros will prefer absconding to US, plenty of land and money there! Dr. JS was right that there will be a time when the conflict is over and you have to negotiate with the survivors. Macron seems to get it, the new Eastern Europeans just seem to have a deathwish hoping Sam Unkil will bail out their shenanigans.

[kit]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61691816

Macaron trying to broker a ceasefire. Ukraine living up to its Pakraine moniker, increasingly the statements from this country appear full of sense of entitlement.

Cant say it better , didnt they want India for "rebuilding" efforts , for free of course ! Pakiban or Pakraine , all of same ilk., entitled ones

" i am being "persecuted" .. so you owe me big time ., yellinsky needs to stop his weed and smell the coffee

[kit]

Biden says Ukraine might have to give Russia land in ‘negotiated settlement’

President Biden on Friday declined to rule out Ukraine having to cede part of its territory to Russia in order to end Moscow’s more than three-month-old invasion.

“Does Ukraine have to cede territory to achieve peace?” a reporter asked Biden after his remarks on the May jobs report.

“From the beginning, I’ve said and I’ve been — not everyone’s agreed with me — nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” Biden began his answer. “It’s their territory. I’m not going to tell them what they should and shouldn’t do.

...............................

yes he did say there might be a small incursion., nothing much mind you., just before the full blown Russian invasion

[ldev]

What EU does not understand is Russia will always be their neighbour. And unlike last century no yank will be willing to sacrifice again, if any all the Euros will prefer absconding to US, plenty of land and money there! Dr. JS was right that there will be a time when the conflict is over and you have to negotiate with the survivors. Macron seems to get it, the new Eastern Europeans just seem to have a deathwish hoping Sam Unkil will bail out their shenanigans.

Fair point. However you also need to talk to some Eastern Europeans who lived under the USSR when it existed and realize that they have a total phobia of again living in a totalitarian society. Rational??? Not entirely but understandable, given their experience of living in the Iron Curtain. And Putin does not help matters when he talks of the fact that the dissolution of the USSR was the greatest tragedy that happened to his country. Eastern Europeans take that rightly or wrongly to mean that Putin wants to recreate that via an expansionist Russia. Something like how the Janata Government was a breath of fresh air after the excesses of IG's emergency.

[Pratyush]

Do those nations even understand that Russians were a victim as much as they were?


They seem determined to avenge the excesses of communism from the Russians.

[ldev]

Do those nations even understand that Russians were a victim as much as they were?


They seem determined to avenge the excesses of communism from the Russians.

I think they do. I was reading about a poll in which a very high percentage (overwhelming percentage) of Ukranians had a positive opinion of Russia and Russians even during the middle of last year. After 3 months of war that figure is now down to the teens I think. If you can find a link to that poll please post it. I will try and find it also.

The Baltics, Poland, what was Czechoslovakia and even Hungary never had a positive opinion of Russia or Russians although Hungary under Orban is surprisingly independent but I think that is more for economic reasons.

[ldev]

On the economic fallout of the conflict specifically the oil market, the green and anti carbon policies of the Biden administration, Germany prematurely shutting down it's nuclear reactors, and Canada are causing this huge disruption. In the middle of probably the greatest supply shock to the global oil market these Governments are still pursuing a green anti oil agenda. Mind boggling how dogmatism triumphs over pragmatism. Consider the following:

Venezuela the greatest oil reserves on the planet at 300 billion barrels with production reduced to a relative trickle of ~1 million barrels because of the US boycott and years of under investment and mismanagement by PDVSA, the national oil company.

Canada with reserves of 170 billion barrels, 3rd largest in the world, but cannot get more of it's oil to the US and global markets because the Biden administration refuses to approve additional pipelines. Canadian oil production of 4 million barrels per day can double.

Iran under shackles because of the frozen deal on it's nuclear status with oil production that can increase by leaps and bounds with proper investment and a nuclear deal in place.

Libya in shambles via the civil war with oil production at a fraction of what it was under Gadaffi.

So a lot of the global economic pain and inflation because of oil is perfectly manageable and can be addressed, even if 100% of Russian oil is taken off the market. But the quality of leadership on this issue by the Biden administration is pathetic. As is the dogma on green policies.

[NRao]

I had heard chatter about Elensky-and-nuclear-material-to-make-devices. Did not take it very seriously, until I came across during a session at Davos, on nuclear issues related to the conflict in UKR, IAEA Director General Mariano Grossi claims (@7:05 or so) that Ukraine had 30,000 kgs of plutonium and 40,000 kgs of enriched uranium on site at the Zaporizhian nuclear complex. Currently under the Russian Army, he calims he has no direct access to the site and worries what if "a few 100 kgs of nuclear grade material going missing".

So, Elensky did have nuclear grade material - granted under IAEA - to make a large arsenal.

Interesting data point. Spilling out - intentionally or not , not sure.

[ldev]

I had heard chatter about Elensky-and-nuclear-material-to-make-devices. Did not take it very seriously, until I came across during a session at Davos, on nuclear issues related to the conflict in UKR, IAEA Director General Mariano Grossi claims (@7:05 or so) that Ukraine had 30,000 kgs of plutonium and 40,000 kgs of enriched uranium on site at the Zaporizhian nuclear complex. Currently under the Russian Army, he calims he has no direct access to the site and worries what if "a few 100 kgs of nuclear grade material going missing".

So, Elensky did have nuclear grade material - granted under IAEA - to make a large arsenal.

Interesting data point. Spilling out - intentionally or not , not sure.

I think some clarifications are in order:

Ukraine is a signatory to the NPT.

The Russian VVER is a PWR which uses Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) (<5%). AFAIK, Ukraine buys this nuclear fuel from Westinghouse via long term contracts.

Uranium is considered enriched at >20% going all the way up to >90%. Ukraine does not have any means for enriching uranium, no centrifuges, it gave up all that in return for signing the NPT.

Spent fuel from it's reactors does have the potential via re-processing to be used as weapons grade plutonium or uranium but Ukraine does not possess any re-processing facilities nor any enrichment facilities as stated above to make weapons grade uranium.

Zaporizhian was/is under Russian control. So if any fuel/spent fuel is missing, the Russians are also responsible.

[NRao]

I had heard chatter about Elensky-and-nuclear-material-to-make-devices. Did not take it very seriously, until I came across during a session at Davos, on nuclear issues related to the conflict in UKR, IAEA Director General Mariano Grossi claims (@7:05 or so) that Ukraine had 30,000 kgs of plutonium and 40,000 kgs of enriched uranium on site at the Zaporizhian nuclear complex. Currently under the Russian Army, he calims he has no direct access to the site and worries what if "a few 100 kgs of nuclear grade material going missing".

So, Elensky did have nuclear grade material - granted under IAEA - to make a large arsenal.

Interesting data point. Spilling out - intentionally or not , not sure.

I think some clarifications are in order:

Ukraine is a signatory to the NPT.

.............

All that you mention is known and clear to everyone, needs no further discussion - and yet it has become a topic in some circles.

That Zelensky made a ref to "nuclear" is undisputed.

What follows is - as far as I can tell - is conjecture at best, but a serious one.

The arg goes something like this: Z mentions "nuclear" (that UKR was 3rd largest and gave up because of 3 nuclear powers who gave assurances that are not being kept), he has N material, in the speech he calls for immediate consultations (on Feb 19, 2022)(for the last time), and the West does not react. Russia attacked on the 22nd.

Some argue that concluded that Z would go nuclear. Right/wrong, true/false, do not know and I have no interest in that. My interest is that this data point slipped by me.

[ldev]

[

All that you mention is known and clear to everyone, needs no further discussion - and yet it has become a topic in some circles.

That Zelensky made a ref to "nuclear" is undisputed.

What follows is - as far as I can tell - is conjecture at best, but a serious one.

The arg goes something like this: Z mentions "nuclear" (that UKR was 3rd largest and gave up because of 3 nuclear powers who gave assurances that are not being kept), he has N material, in the speech he calls for immediate consultations (on Feb 19, 2022)(for the last time), and the West does not react. Russia attacked on the 22nd.

Some argue that concluded that Z would go nuclear. Right/wrong, true/false, do not know and I have no interest in that. My interest is that this data point slipped by me.

Think about how this sounds: Russia which had massed troops on the Ukraine border since exercises conducted in April 2021 and left equipment in place even after some troops returned from their exercises, re-upped troop strength again from November 2021, with speculation running rampant as to when Russia would attack. More speculation occurred that Putin would not want to rain on Xi's parade with the Beijing winter Olympics starting in early February and so the attack would happen after the winter Olympics ended. And yet after all these months of forces being built up along the border, a mere statement by Zelinsky on February 19 about Ukraine's nuclear status caused Putin to invade 72 hours later!! And this is a statement by Zelinsky with Ukraine having no equipment or nuclear labs to enrich or fabricate weapon grade fissile material!! All of those erstwhile Soviet era labs having been destroyed as part of Ukraine's entry into the NPT regime. Even Japan which is considered to have all of the fissile material, technical expertise, labs etc. to build nuclear weapons will take about a year to build a warhead from the time it decides to go ahead, it is estimated. And yet somehow this mere statement from Zelinski with nothing to back it up caused Putin to invade within 72 hours!!

[Cyrano]

Its not necessary to have a thermonuclear device, Ukr has the means, and has the required madness to make and use a dirty bomb. They have several N plants in the central and western Ukraine and probably enough stored materials and enough expertise to make a dirty bomb warhead and tack it on a missile in the past 100 days. May be they have one - who knows for sure ?

Its not just that aspect which could have (among a lot of other things) triggered Russia. elensly is believed to have indicated to the US that he is OK to have American N missiles on Ukrainian soil to keep Russia in check and to get a faster entry into NATO, and also fast track into EU. Seeing how he behaves now, I dont find that completely impossible. While it cant be ascertained how close US was to act on that offer, for Russia's won security calculations that was a red line crossed.

Russia always had and has sufficient intelligence operatives in Ukr, including in its Intelligence and military - many who are very senior or retired now are Putin's contemporaries, therefore have the same soviet lineage and thinking, and not swayed so easily by EU & NATO bling.

Putin's invasion decided in 72 hours sounds as ridiculous as Putin's price hike. There is a whole Russian establishment and senior leaders of various specialities involved in something like this. Putin doesn't act alone and on a whim though western propaganda hammers this image on us all the time. He does have the final GO/NO GO based on a series of advices and recommendations, options etc but I don't think he has more personal leeway to do as he pleases than do the leaders of any other major world powers.

[dnivas]

[

All that you mention is known and clear to everyone, needs no further discussion - and yet it has become a topic in some circles.

That Zelensky made a ref to "nuclear" is undisputed.

What follows is - as far as I can tell - is conjecture at best, but a serious one.

The arg goes something like this: Z mentions "nuclear" (that UKR was 3rd largest and gave up because of 3 nuclear powers who gave assurances that are not being kept), he has N material, in the speech he calls for immediate consultations (on Feb 19, 2022)(for the last time), and the West does not react. Russia attacked on the 22nd.

Some argue that concluded that Z would go nuclear. Right/wrong, true/false, do not know and I have no interest in that. My interest is that this data point slipped by me.

Think about how this sounds: Russia which had massed troops on the Ukraine border since exercises conducted in April 2021 and left equipment in place even after some troops returned from their exercises, re-upped troop strength again from November 2021, with speculation running rampant as to when Russia would attack. More speculation occurred that Putin would not want to rain on Xi's parade with the Beijing winter Olympics starting in early February and so the attack would happen after the winter Olympics ended. And yet after all these months of forces being built up along the border, a mere statement by Zelinsky on February 19 about Ukraine's nuclear status caused Putin to invade 72 hours later!! And this is a statement by Zelinsky with Ukraine having no equipment or nuclear labs to enrich or fabricate weapon grade fissile material!! All of those erstwhile Soviet era labs having been destroyed as part of Ukraine's entry into the NPT regime. Even Japan which is considered to have all of the fissile material, technical expertise, labs etc. to build nuclear weapons will take about a year to build a warhead from the time it decides to go ahead, it is estimated. And yet somehow this mere statement from Zelinski with nothing to back it up caused Putin to invade within 72 hours!!

I can literally flip Russia to NATO and 2021 to 2014 and we have a cassus beli for Russian involvement. The worst actor in the whole situation is NATO and the US/UK warmongers. It needs a lesson taught or the same will be implemented in Sooth Asia very soon.

[NRao]

How do you spell "racket": How do you legalize an illegal activity.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1533421732626944000

The US could allow Eni and Repsol to ship Venezuelan oil to Europe as soon as July to make up for Russian crude, Reuters reported

US to Let Eni, Repsol Ship Venezuela Oil to Europe, Reuters Says

So, Venezuelan oil that was going to India is now going to Europe.

And, Russian oil that was going to Europe is going to India.

Ustad Pedro logic for you.

European shipping firms ‘making a mockery’ of Russia sanctions as oil cargos double

[NRao]

https://twitter.com/AngieSkys/status/15 ... 5813819393

Authorities in Warsaw have allowed citizens to forage for firewood in the forest to keep their homes heated amid spiraling energy costs. Poland is in the midst of a coal shortage after banning Russian imports. The UK has told some of their citizens the same. Going green?

[Cyrano]

Yes, when you see the clout a group like Extinction Rebellion has among European greens, you realise they are all closet anarchists waiting for the opportunity to smash the planet killing capitalists and unleash the dictatorship of the greenetariat on the mindless-consumer masses and move the world towards a degrowth and decarbonated utopia.

[Lisa]

https://twitter.com/AngieSkys/status/15 ... 5813819393

Authorities in Warsaw have allowed citizens to forage for firewood in the forest to keep their homes heated amid spiraling energy costs. Poland is in the midst of a coal shortage after banning Russian imports. The UK has told some of their citizens the same. Going green?

Not so quick!

Wood burners: Most polluting fuels to be banned in the home

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51581817

I give it till the coming winter and firewood will be back on the menu. It will be burned with all of COP26's promises.

[NRao]

Germany hesitant to supply tanks to Ukraine over fears it might invade Russia – Bild

[Rakesh]

'India is not sitting on the fence', says External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar

[ldev]

China’s new vassal: Vladimir Putin

China can now enjoy turning the tables.

When Chairman Mao Zedong visited Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin in the winter of 1949, he was very much the junior supplicant. Stalin packed him off to wait for weeks in his snow-bound No. 2 dacha, 27 kilometers outside Moscow, where the humiliated and constipated Chinese leader grumbled about everything from the quality of the fish to his uncomfortable mattress.

When the two Communist leaders did get to business, Stalin bullied his way to a very favorable deal that put Mao on the hook to buy Russian arms and heavy machinery with a loan on which Beijing would have to pay interest.

Seven decades later, the power dynamics reveal a radical reset. Shortly before invading Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to the Winter Olympics in Beijing to proclaim the “no limits” friendship with China’s Xi Jinping, but there’s no doubting who the real superpower is in that duo these days. China’s $18-trillion economy is now 10 times mightier than Russia’s. Beijing will hold nearly all the good cards in setting the terms of any financial lifelines from big brother.

As Russia faces a sharply contracting economy under sanctions and an impending oil embargo from Europe, China is the obvious potential benefactor for Putin to turn toward.

Xi shares Putin’s hostility to the West and NATO, but that doesn’t mean he will be offering unalloyed charity. Xi’s overriding strategic concern is China’s prosperity and security, not saving Russia. Beijing is likely to buy at least some oil diverted from Europe, but only at a hefty discount from global benchmarks. China will only help Russia to the extent that it doesn’t attract sanctions and imperil its own ability to sell goods to rich countries in North America and the EU.

There are very serious limits to these “no limits” relations, however. For now, at least, China is stressing to Western nations that it is not selling weapons or plane parts to Russia. Beijing doesn’t want to fall victim to sanctions itself, so it sets boundaries to the relationship. Even more worryingly for Putin, China is also out to set a high price for support. Beijing, for example, wants to restrict Russia’s highly lucrative arms sales to India, China’s arch-foe across the Himalayas.

“In a reverse from the Cold War pattern, Russia will be the junior partner to a more powerful China. That will irritate Putin,” said Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

That second-fiddle role is not a scenario Putin would have envisioned when the Russian president decided to invade Ukraine in February, propelled by a desire to rebuild a bygone glory for his nation.

But all in all, he should have seen it coming. China is a country obsessed by correcting historical humiliations and regaining its position of global leadership. The time when the Soviet Union was ideologically — and economically — superior to Communist China is long gone. Huawei Technologies builds Russia’s 5G networks, while Russia requires Chinese cooperation on everything from aircraft parts to currency swaps. Importantly, it’s also not just the U.S. and Europe imposing sanctions on Moscow, but also three other major Asian economies: Japan, South Korea and Singapore.

[Tanaji]

. China is also out to set a high price for support. Beijing, for example, wants to restrict Russia’s highly lucrative arms sales to India, China’s arch-foe across the Himalayas.

Did Xi personally ring the author up to tell him the above or is the author gifted with the ability of remote clairvoyance?

[ldev]

. China is also out to set a high price for support. Beijing, for example, wants to restrict Russia’s highly lucrative arms sales to India, China’s arch-foe across the Himalayas.

Did Xi personally ring the author up to tell him the above or is the author gifted with the ability of remote clairvoyance?

While we don't know if Xi personally called up the author Stuart Lau, the author for Politico in this case, born in Hong Kong, speaks Mandarin and Cantonese and formerly worked for the South China Morning Post, a newspaper with fairly pro China views. So there is the possibility that he has sources in the Chinese Government.

[NRao]

. China is also out to set a high price for support. Beijing, for example, wants to restrict Russia’s highly lucrative arms sales to India, China’s arch-foe across the Himalayas.

Did Xi personally ring the author up to tell him the above or is the author gifted with the ability of remote clairvoyance?

Neither.

Anyone who had been paying attention - granted a very rare commodity - would have come to a similar conclusion, just based on what India has been saying in the past 3/4 years.

Stuart Lau has written a report - one of many out there - and this particular one is at the lower end of the spectrum - to cover the failures of the Ukrainian adventure and is helping the Biden admin pivot towards China. And, we should expect a lot more such articles that are designed to take our attention away from Ukraine and to something else - and one of them is "China" (another: "global food security")

What he has not mentioned is that the 2020 PLA's Ladakh decision - and by extension Xi's - has actually harmed Beijing more than anything else. Both in terms of accelerated development (such as roads along the border - a major peeve of Beijing) and self sufficiency. And, my sense is that the Ukraine debacle will force India into speeding up. I am fairly confident that ND has gamed this scenario.

[NRao]

Above I had mention: "and this particular one is at the lower end of the spectrum "

Here is an examples of the "higher end":

Extending Russia : Competing from Advantageous Ground a Rand report (the shortest version) that was published in 2019 - funded by the GOTUS. A much larger version, and the the full 350 page PDF

So:

This report examines a range of possible means to extend Russia. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy recognized, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage

and, the kicker:

Key Findings

Russia's weaknesses lie in the economic domains
* Russia's greatest vulnerability, in any competition with the United States, is its economy, which is comparatively small and highly dependent on energy exports.
* The Russian leadership's greatest anxiety stems from the stability and durability of the regime.

The most promising measures to stress Russia are in the realms of energy production and international pressure
* Continuing to expand U.S. energy production in all forms, including renewables, and encouraging other countries to do the same would maximize pressure on Russia's export receipts and thus on its national and defense budgets. Alone among the many measures looked at in this report, this one comes with the least cost or risk.
* Sanctions can also limit Russia's economic potential. To be effective, however, these need to be multilateral, involving (at a minimum) the European Union, which is Russia's largest customer and greatest source of technology and capital, larger in all these respects than the United States.

Energy. Sanctions. Durability of the regime. Where have we seen this in 2022 - recall this report was written in and published (on-line) in 2019.

That the above did not work in Ukraine is evident in the follow-up article by one of the major authors of the above, to shore up his original thesis:

June 3, 2022 ::The Return of 'Don’t Poke the Bear'

Check out the twists and turns

Don't poke the bear. This idiom summed up an American strategy that argued, essentially, that the West should avoid antagonizing Russia, lest it enrage the beast. After the invasion of Ukraine, the approach fell out of favor. But as Ukraine has pushed Russian forces back from Kyiv, the school has witnessed an unexpected resurgence. A chorus of former officials, academics and journalists are suddenly arguing that it would be prudent for Ukraine to settle, when recently many in this same camp were calling for exactly the opposite.

Perhaps the best example of this about-face comes from the editorial board of the New York Times. In March, the board wrote that American policy must be willing to engage in the fight for Ukraine “no matter how long it takes… [until] Ukraine will be free.” Two months later, the same board is now arguing that the West must seek a negotiated peace even if that “may require Ukraine to make some hard decisions,” because the risks of clear victory are too great.

..........

[Pratyush]

Ultimately, if Russia becomes a PRC vassal. The net loser is the US. I think that Russians at this point in time will be happy to pay the price.

If the US can be brought down a peg or 2.

[NRao]

And, if you want a potential guide for the future:

2020 :: China's Grand Strategy : Trends, Trajectories, and Long-Term Competition, that is the short version. The full 150 page PDF

[Nihat]

Ultimately, if Russia becomes a PRC vassal. The net loser is the US. I think that Russians at this point in time will be happy to pay the price.

If the US can be brought down a peg or 2.

Eventually China will demand that Russia cut arms supply to India, cut delivery of spare and increase lead time. That's where the trouble lies for us.

[Pratyush]

That's a price India will have to pay in terms of thinking that buying military equipment from others buys security.

India is moving in the right direction in terms of attempting to build our own MIC. I just hope that it will not be too late.

[bala]

Aren't the entire motley crew of weapons of China based on f-USSR maal. Except for their prowess in rockets, China is still dependent on Russia for its weapons tech. They tried to steal stuff from the US but I don't know how effectively they translated the copy & paste. Besides the pivot to Russia, China and US are tied at the hip in terms of economics. I see opportunities for India to snatch away the economic clout from China and also tie up with Russia for more weapons tech. The Indian talent base needs to get into higher gear and create things for India. India needs to get into an investment phase across the board - military and economic.