Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Jul 2022 00:51

Lavrov walks out of G20 talks as West presses Moscow on Ukraine

Suicide vortex ............

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 09 Jul 2022 04:00

Germany dims the lights to cope with Russia gas supply crunch
https://www.ft.com/content/d0c5815f-f0a ... b0fbbd2c94

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 09 Jul 2022 08:18

Conspiracy theory alert.

The western world will trigger a multi year recession to collapse oil prices in order to defeat Russia. That will have the additional benefit of reducing the European and North American population by 25 to 30% because of large scale hunger and starvation.

That will take care of the climate change crisis.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 09 Jul 2022 09:41

Pratyush wrote:Conspiracy theory alert.

The western world will trigger a multi year recession to collapse oil prices in order to defeat Russia. That will have the additional benefit of reducing the European and North American population by 25 to 30% because of large scale hunger and starvation.

That will take care of the climate change crisis.

So the Chinese, African, Indian and other populations will be immune to this large scale hunger and starvation

which is going to happen because of a collapse in oil prices??

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 09 Jul 2022 10:13

Hey it's a conspiracy theory. All parts don't have to add up.

Besides the western world's leadership is acting suicidal in terms of how they are acting in terms of destroying small businesses.

With India acting in terms of protecting it's own interests. I don't see Indians being effected by this.

The Americans are doing everything in their power to further PRC interests. So Russians and PRC acting in concert would be able to handle the situation quite easily.

The sub Saharan Africans are inconsequential to global warming. So reducing that population is not going to help. Is therefore not going to be targeted by the western world.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Jul 2022 10:50

Pratyush wrote:Conspiracy theory alert.

The western world will trigger a multi year recession to collapse oil prices in order to defeat Russia. That will have the additional benefit of reducing the European and North American population by 25 to 30% because of large scale hunger and starvation.

That will take care of the climate change crisis.

If they really try to do that, we will go back to the times of `Ça ira! Ça ira! Ça ira! Les gauchistes â la lanterne! Les gauchistes on les pendra!'.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 09 Jul 2022 14:17

It has indeed crossed my radar that some sections of European green lobbies are secretly happy about the way things are going.

Assuming for a second anthropomorphic CO2, Nitrogen are indeed as dangerous as they claim, and given alternate energy sources are what they are (insufficient and unreliable) then how can the greens achieve the "ecological transition" they cry hoarse for? Transition towards what future state? They will immediately answer 'one without fossil fuels'. Which means, per capita affordable energy even for Europe will drop to preindustrial era levels. Economic activity will terribly shrink. And so will man's ability to impact the planet.

The greens don't hide this fact, they are actively preparing for such an energy deficient future and are calling the govt's and the society to get ready for it by "de-growth".

They are seeing the current crisis as an opportunistic experiment to evaluate and analyse how European economies and societies will react, respond and adapt to "degrowth". 2 years of Covid has already shown how societies and economies adapt. This is the next chapter.

That's why the green lobbies are not really against this war. Those who stop construction of roads and dams because a few toads and critters will die in a few sq km haven't piped a word when millions of shells explode spreading toxic residues all over rivers, fields, forests and urban zones. They are wilfully ignoring the ecological impact of the war because it offers an unexpected Degrowth experience.

The radical greens have more potential to become genocidal maniacs than any other leftist movement of the past or present. If they could have their way they will be the first to nuclear bomb all of Asia to reduce the population burden on the planet. I'm not joking. Not one bit.

So conspiracy theory above - yes. But is it totally baseless? The hell not !!

kit · Post by **kit** » 09 Jul 2022 14:29

Pratyush wrote:Conspiracy theory alert.

The western world will trigger a multi year recession to collapse oil prices in order to defeat Russia. That will have the additional benefit of reducing the European and North American population by 25 to 30% because of large scale hunger and starvation.

That will take care of the climate change crisis.

Burning the house down to kill a rat

wonders will never cease

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 09 Jul 2022 19:33

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... uUjdchoY1g ---> Report: US Consulate General in Mumbai writes letter to Mumbai Port Authority to not allow Russian vessels to call at the port because of US sanctions against Russia. Shipping ministry has forwarded the letter to MEA.

SinghS · Post by **SinghS** » 09 Jul 2022 20:06

Rakesh wrote:

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... uUjdchoY1g ---> Report: US Consulate General in Mumbai writes letter to Mumbai Port Authority to not allow Russian vessels to call at the port because of US sanctions against Russia. Shipping ministry has forwarded the letter to MEA.

This is a serious matter. US Consulate General has no authority writing anything to any Indian business entity. They should talk to the MEA. This is tantamount to interfering in India's internal affairs. They deserve serious reprimand.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 09 Jul 2022 20:12

SinghS wrote:This is a serious matter. US Consulate General has no authority writing anything to any Indian business entity. They should talk to the MEA. This is tantamount to interfering in India's internal affairs. They deserve serious reprimand.

The Ministry of Shipping forwarded the letter to the Ministry of External Affairs. It will be given its due attention

This reeks of desperation. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is giving the Khan takleef. They are trying, but will come up short. Could also be the work of some over zealous "woke" at the US Consulate General in Mumbai. He/She probably needs to prove his/her credentials & loyalty to the Biden Administration.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 09 Jul 2022 20:22

Rakesh wrote:

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... uUjdchoY1g ---> Report: US Consulate General in Mumbai writes letter to Mumbai Port Authority to not allow Russian vessels to call at the port because of US sanctions against Russia. Shipping ministry has forwarded the letter to MEA.

This is doing something for the sake of doing it. With a hope that some weakling Babu will follow the instructions.

The US embassy officials are prone to doing this. In different parts of the country.

I remember a chaiwala telling me that some US embassy officials approaching the concerned chaiwala belonging to ministry of women and child development in early 2000s . Only to be smacked in the face by the said chaiwala that they should be speaking to External affairs ministry.

bala · Post by **bala** » 09 Jul 2022 21:15

U.S., China top diplomats hold 'constructive' first talks in months

https://www.thehindu.com/news/internati ... 619739.ece

The meeting focused on preventing competition spilling over into conflict and Washington's opposition to Beijing on a range of issues including Taiwan and human rights.

The United States and China held ‘constructive’ talks Saturday, the two sides said, after an unusually long meeting aimed at preventing bilateral tensions from spiralling out of control.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held their first talks since October on the Indonesian island of Bali as the two powers stepped up interaction at a time when the West is focused on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "Despite the complexities of our relationship, I can say with some confidence that our delegations found today's discussions useful, candid and constructive," Mr. Blinken said after five hours of talks. "The relationship between the United States and China is highly consequential for our countries but also for the world. We are committed to managing this relationship — this competition — responsibly," he said, promising to keep open channels of diplomacy with Beijing.

All the Kabuki Theater nonsense of USA and China at odds is really rubbish for the rest of the world to consume. Notice how quickly things are patched up between the two, despite China openly siding with Russia in the war with Ukr. India should have no illusions about the two nations as G2.

What is the point of the QUAD.. india is being used as doormat by the US.

kit · Post by **kit** » 09 Jul 2022 21:47

Rakesh wrote:
SinghS wrote:This is a serious matter. US Consulate General has no authority writing anything to any Indian business entity. They should talk to the MEA. This is tantamount to interfering in India's internal affairs. They deserve serious reprimand.
The Ministry of Shipping forwarded the letter to the Ministry of External Affairs. It will be given its due attention

This reeks of desperation. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is giving the Khan takleef. They are trying, but will come up short. Could also be the work of some over zealous "woke" at the US Consulate General in Mumbai. He/She probably needs to prove his/her credentials & loyalty to the Biden Administration.

is there an Indian among them ?..lol

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 09 Jul 2022 23:05

kit wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Could also be the work of some over zealous "woke" at the US Consulate General in Mumbai. He/She probably needs to prove his/her credentials & loyalty to the Biden Administration.
is there an Indian among them ?..lol

Could very well have a MUTU (More Unkil Than Unkil) on staff there. MUTUs are hilarious.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Jul 2022 23:06

Filing it in this thread:

https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/ ... 5567502338

- Macron loses his majority in France

- Johnson resigns in the UK

- Draghi under extreme pressure in Italy

- Rutte facing farmer uprising in the Netherlands

- Trudeau embroiled in scandals

- Biden imploding in the US

The globalists leadership is taking it on the chin.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Jul 2022 23:08

Very good question:

https://twitter.com/jaccocharite/status ... 3360228354

From a fellow Dutchie in Russia:
My 13-year-old grandson just asked me, "Grandma how come the "Russian aggression" hinders the export of grain from Ukraine, but not the import of weapons from the West to Ukraine?" Even kids get it...

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 10 Jul 2022 01:18

Rakesh wrote:

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... uUjdchoY1g ---> Report: US Consulate General in Mumbai writes letter to Mumbai Port Authority to not allow Russian vessels to call at the port because of US sanctions against Russia. Shipping ministry has forwarded the letter to MEA.

The American Consulate In Mumbai Mustn’t Behave Like A Viceroy
https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-amer ... -in-mumbai
09 July 2022

The American Consulate in Mumbai has no place whatsoever at all in demanding that India ban Russian vessels, and it’s only as a result of Delhi’s goodwill that there hasn’t (yet?) been an official condemnation of this.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 10 Jul 2022 03:52

https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/drive ... 87831.html
Driven by hubris and moral certitude, West harms itself, triggers economic crisis and hands Putin a ’win’

Russian economy is more resilient than was perceived and Putin, instead of being paralysed by Western sanctions, is inflicting pain on the West in return

The German economy minister, Robert Habeck, is sounding outraged. “The curbing of gas supplies is an economic attack on us by Putin,” said Habeck, who is also the vice chancellor. “It is obviously Putin’s strategy to try to fuel insecurity, drive up prices and divide us as a society.” It is perplexing indeed. Why would Putin seek to harm German interests?

These are astonishing statements. Europe, along with the United States, has launched a proxy war against Russia. It is giving financial aid, exporting massive amounts of lethal weapons to Ukrainians, providing tactical intelligence, and has collectively imposed some of the toughest economic sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. The motivation to do so is understandable, though realists might point out that NATO enlargement has played a part in the crisis.

Having taken some of the strongest, coordinated steps to degrade the Russian economy, sever it from the global financial network, pulling the plug on Nord Stream 2, imposing a rash of taxes and bans to prevent Russia from finding buyers for its commodities, cutting off (or attempting to) its oil exports, targeting its banks, financial institutions, individuals, businesses, and state-owned enterprises — Europeans now seem bewildered that Putin is taking countermeasures and appear unprepared for the repercussions.

ndia and China were singled out at Cop26 in Glasgow last year for replacing the word “phasing out” coal with “phasing down” in the final pact. They were accused of “diluting” the climate commitment, a charge that was morally specious and factually dubious.

It now turns out that faced with dwindling gas flows, Germany is now firing up coal-based power plants, Austria is restarting existing coal plants and the Netherlands has lifted production caps. Italy is also following suit. And in a stunning sleight of hand the European Parliament on Wednesday, in a landmark vote, “endorsed labeling some gas and nuclear energy projects as ‘green,’ allowing them access to hundreds of billions of euros in cheap loans and even state subsidies”, reports New York Times.

As Georgetown University professor Charles Kupchan writes in Foreign Affairs, “continuing the war may well mean more loss of life and territory, not battlefield gains for Kyiv. And the longer the war goes on, the higher the risk of escalation, whether by design or by accident, and the more prolonged and severe its disruptions to the global economy and food supply.”

At some point, the West must set aside its hubris, arrogance and moral certitude to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, if only to cut its own losses from the war’s economic spillover that will sooner than later drive a wedge through NATO unity. Helping Ukraine beat marauding Russia is not the only morality at play. Condemning the rest of the world to economic, food and energy crisis over a war in which they have no stake, with some emerging economies such as Sri Lanka gasping for breath, is equally immoral.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 10 Jul 2022 03:55

heard from family in Germany on train cancellations in Frankfurt [which rarely happens] and unheard of utility price increase.

It's shocking that the views by Germans are , we want to cause economic and military pain but when Putin responds with 1% of the pain he can cause, they cant surprised and frankly not expecting it. Shows in a way how haughty they are to not even expect retribution. How the good times end.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 10 Jul 2022 03:59

Forgot to report another Towel thrown by Germania.

The turbines from Canada, seems an agreement has been reached to indirectly breach their own sanctions to send the turbine back to Gazprom.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-07-08/

bala · Post by **bala** » 10 Jul 2022 04:19

Here is picture of Siemens turbine which is necessary for the resumption of full operation of the Russian Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany.

// so Canada is the culprit for no gas to Europe including Germany.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 10 Jul 2022 04:50

Those turbines are for Nord Stream 1. They are the turbines that were scheduled for regular maintenance - planned. They belong to Nord Stream. The supplier, Siemens, had to send them to Canada, because that is THE only place that can maintain them. Once they came to Siemans Canada, the Canadian government impounded them because Canada has sanctioned everything "Russian".

So, the Canadian government told Siemans Canada not to return the turbines to Siemans Germany, turbines belonging to Nord Stream Germany!! Because the turbines were used to import Russian gas

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 10 Jul 2022 09:34

https://news.rediff.com/commentary/2022 ... 2232b12955

The cost of diplomatic failures in pushing Ukrainian narrative.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 10 Jul 2022 12:56

vijayk wrote:https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/drive ... 87831.html
Driven by hubris and moral certitude, West harms itself, triggers economic crisis and hands Putin a ’win’

Russian economy is more resilient than was perceived and Putin, instead of being paralysed by Western sanctions, is inflicting pain on the West in return

I really like this article; But I believe good news when it comes from devil's advocate. Then I'm at peace that I'm not making my my judgement.
Even before u posted this article, I was guessing this would be written by Sreemoy Talukdar - very opinionated writer who passes on opinions without substantial data just anecdotes. Good for making ursef feel good but not useful for objective understanding of a situation.

I want to believe this but just waiting for a more sensible voice to say this.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 10 Jul 2022 13:24

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/01/us/p ... aties.html

Once Russia gets donetsk, and war goes into less russian speaking regions - tactical nuclear weapons will become an option for Putin. So if Russian offensive stalls post donetsk, russia could use tactical nuclear weapons. Not a bad idea; US/Europe will get what they bargained for.

Stamina wise, Russia will last lot longer in absorbing pain than West cz this is much more core to their interests. West picked up a bad fight here it seems, if nothing else - its beginning of the end of the 'West' as we know it. In 20 years form now, just like last 5000 years, the locus of the humanity will shift to Asia again, pretty well. Sorry Uncle Sam - it was a good ride, till it lasted.

kit · Post by **kit** » 10 Jul 2022 13:34

NRao wrote:Those turbines are for Nord Stream 1. They are the turbines that were scheduled for regular maintenance - planned. They belong to Nord Stream. The supplier, Siemens, had to send them to Canada, because that is THE only place that can maintain them. Once they came to Siemans Canada, the Canadian government impounded them because Canada has sanctioned everything "Russian".

So, the Canadian government told Siemans Canada not to return the turbines to Siemans Germany, turbines belonging to Nord Stream Germany!! Because the turbines were used to import Russian gas

the west has wrapped themselves very nicely in sanctions and now struggling to get up

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 10 Jul 2022 13:51

YashG wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/01/us/p ... aties.html

Once Russia gets donetsk, and war goes into less russian speaking regions - tactical nuclear weapons will become an option for Putin. So if Russian offensive stalls post donetsk, russia could use tactical nuclear weapons. Not a bad idea; US/Europe will get what they bargained for.

Stamina wise, Russia will last lot longer in absorbing pain than West cz this is much more core to their interests. West picked up a bad fight here it seems, if nothing else - its beginning of the end of the 'West' as we know it. In 20 years form now, just like last 5000 years, the locus of the humanity will shift to Asia again, pretty well. Sorry Uncle Sam - it was a good ride, till it lasted.

Another point to add in addition to non russian speaking areas is that now the Ukr soldiers are fighting for their mothers and wives. I am hoping we wont be seeing any more azovtals after this. I dont think we will see Ukr soldiers herd non fighting women and children into underground shelters.

So far Ukr for all the talk about war has remained almost unscathed in the Non Russian speaking parts. Internet is working, Mobile and cell towers are working, electricity is working, public services are working. if this has been a true war and Russia intended to actually pursue war, the western ukraine would have been shell shocked by now.

I am interested in seeing what is going to happen in Winter. I wonder how much the west will force Ukrainians to escalate. What other weapon systems will be sent.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Jul 2022 14:53

Ukraine has sacked his ambassadors to 5 countries including India.

Apart from India, Germany, Norway, Czech Republic and Hungary are included.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 19750.html

skumar · Post by **skumar** » 10 Jul 2022 19:00

YashG wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/01/us/p ... aties.html

Once Russia gets donetsk, and war goes into less russian speaking regions - tactical nuclear weapons will become an option for Putin. So if Russian offensive stalls post donetsk, russia could use tactical nuclear weapons. .......

The West may want to project Putin as some sort of despotical psycho maniac to brainwash their own populations.

The use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia cannot be ruled out but not because battles will be fought in non-Russian speaking areas.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 11 Jul 2022 05:11

NRao wrote:Those turbines are for Nord Stream 1. They are the turbines that were scheduled for regular maintenance - planned. They belong to Nord Stream. The supplier, Siemens, had to send them to Canada, because that is THE only place that can maintain them. Once they came to Siemans Canada, the Canadian government impounded them because Canada has sanctioned everything "Russian".

So, the Canadian government told Siemans Canada not to return the turbines to Siemans Germany, turbines belonging to Nord Stream Germany!! Because the turbines were used to import Russian gas

NordStream is 51% Gazprom owned. Hence it is Russian. The rest of the stakeholders are German and Dutch companies.

If it were 49.99% Russian owned, then the problem would not have occurred ( like the Latvia blend)

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 11 Jul 2022 05:27

Here is a question for you all you stupid folks. How do you make overnight transitions with adoption of green energy in EU without spending any money on R&D and infra investment. Dont know? Sit down in the EU parliament , label Gas, Nuclear as "Green" and voila - the world is a greener place.
Oh this also has nothing to do with Ukraine war implications

Christophe Hansen, a conservative EU parliamentarian from Luxembourg, said Wednesday's result will make the taxonomy "obsolete."

"We are sacrificing the future to the present by including gas and nuclear in the taxonomy. This short-sightedness undermines the credibility and durability of the taxonomy as a long-term compass for investors," Hansen wrote on Twitter.

EU green stance credibility is like a chic haute couture perforated underwear in tatters . And what will the rest of the world do next time they raise the topic ? Yass...show them the mfinger.

All in all , good news for India ....this will drive prices of equipment down .

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Jul 2022 23:09

Neela wrote: NordStream is 51% Gazprom owned. Hence it is Russian. The rest of the stakeholders are German and Dutch companies.

If it were 49.99% Russian owned, then the problem would not have occurred ( like the Latvia blend)

Actually, the Canadian gov was pressured by Ukraine to impound the turbines, because the German stakeholder (at 15% or so) refused to shut down Nord Stream 1. Recall Ukraine wanted to shut down all gas flow from Russia. In all honesty Canada was caught between Ukraine and Germany. Hey, but such is life now a days. Amit Shah would be most comfortable here.

However, by the time the gas hits those turbines, in Germany, the gas is already paid for!!!!! Russian or not it **really** does not matter.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Jul 2022 23:13

IMO, unrelated directly to Ukraine, for BR more of entertainment value. But, provides some inkling of which direction this whole Ukraine-Russia conflict is going from a Western angle:

Knives Out: WaPo, NYT Go For Biden Blood In Scathing Moment Of Honesty

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Jul 2022 00:25

Jul 9, 2022 :: "Social Peace Is In Great Danger": Germany Is Quietly Shutting Down As Energy Crunch Paralyzes Economy

Jul 9, 2022 :: Britain is falling apart - and it could finish the Tories

Josep Borrell Says EU Is 'not Winning Global Battle Of Narratives' On Ukraine

kit · Post by **kit** » 12 Jul 2022 01:45

NRao wrote:Jul 9, 2022 :: "Social Peace Is In Great Danger": Germany Is Quietly Shutting Down As Energy Crunch Paralyzes Economy

Jul 9, 2022 :: Britain is falling apart - and it could finish the Tories

Josep Borrell Says EU Is 'not Winning Global Battle Of Narratives' On Ukraine

When will they try get off their self induced paralysis ? Waiting for Godot !!

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 12 Jul 2022 03:08

kit wrote:When will they try get off their self induced paralysis ? Waiting for Godot !!

They never will. This is what happens when decades of self induced hubris clouds one's judgment.

The West truly believes they are in the moral right in this conflict. But neither side are really saints in this conflict.

Russia = Among the worst of Evil in Humanity.
West = The Cynosure and Utopia of Humanity.

Repeat that like a mantra and you will get it

P.S. The MUTUs are the best though. They invest all their energies in aping the West, but are never really treated as equals by the West. As Russell Peters once remarked about MUTUs, "Oi **** Coolie...Move It...." But they are a whole other level of messed up and not germane to this thread.

When you see the takleef that some on BRF have taken over this war, I remember what Ramana-ji always says, "This is not even India's war!"

Oh well...let the circus continue....

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 12 Jul 2022 03:12

NRao wrote: Josep Borrell Says EU Is 'not Winning Global Battle Of Narratives' On Ukraine

I read through that article and his blog post that was linked in it, and he seems to be a completely delusional, entitled moron. Which is his right, but the fact that he rose to that kind of position in the EU says a lot about the prevailing mindset, at least among the political and think-tank types.

bala · Post by **bala** » 12 Jul 2022 03:36

Rakesh wrote:...decades of self induced hubris clouds one's judgment

I want to expand a little bit on this topic. The West has over a period of time produced people who do not think one bit, they cling onto their bias and reinforce that at every juncture. There are cheer squads set up to reinforce the one-sided viewpoint. Critical thinkers hardly exist including think tanks. In fact, there is a progressive degradation of intelligence happening across the board. Behind the scenes are the hidden hand of deep state operatives who try to thrust their ruthless one-sided vision of where things need to be. They use all possible means to advance their cause. Herein rational thought or pause for consequences is totally damned. It is blind rage that consumes them, similar to what we see in Pakland.