MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 15 Jun 2022 19:41

Mort Walker wrote:I’ll bet some variation of this thread will exist in 2027, the 30th year of BRF, and we’ll still be talking about foreign combat aircraft acquisition.

The production of Tejas MK1A would have ended. The Mk2 production would not be started because the IAF would ask it to be equipped with 2 engine's and an internal weapons bay.

They will in turn cancel the AMCA for having 2 engine's and an internal weapons bay.

This will waste another 20 years and we will have reached 2047. At which point the PLAF would be a 2500 strong fighter force with 120 to 150 strategic stealth bombers, and 300 inflight tankers.

While the IAF will still be insisting on 2 squadrons of aircraft designed in the 1990s as the game changer.

Cybaru · Post by **Cybaru** » 18 Jun 2022 04:12

Cain Marko wrote:
Cybaru wrote:
What value does ToT add man? Nothing new.. Own parts / components for the line.. that is more valuable than anything else.
Cyji, not at all supporting such ToT based boondoggles - just thinking out loud about the possible order numbers where OEM might actually agree to set up lines. IMVHO - off the shelf purchases would save desh huge amounts of time and money. But gobermand is always thinking of tot and Make in India (or should it be Screw in India?)

screw in India sounds like great manufacturing process!

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 22 Jun 2022 22:13

In case anyone has any doubt that the F-15EX will be cheaper than the Rafale F3R, read this article below. I thought the unit cost would have been cheaper than the Rafale. Read the entire piece, it is an eye opener. So not only is the unit cost high, the OPEX is also high. Also this is Boeing's price for their home customer. A phoren customer will likely only be higher. Yikes, stay away from this bird.

The second article only has a catchy title (perhaps the author wants maximum viewership), but yes the F-15EX has been scaled back (albeit temporarily) from the 144 planned for the USAF to around 80 airframes.

Air Force’s math on the F-15EX and F-35 doesn’t add up
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/04/air ... nt-add-up/
19 April 2022

By Jon Venable - A retired USAF commander and combat fighter pilot, John “JV” Venable is a senior research fellow for The Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense.

F-15EX: Headed For A Crash Landing (As In Being Canceled)?
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/f-1 ... -canceled/
18 May 2022

By Harrison Kass - a Senior Defense Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison has degrees from Lake Forest College, the University of Oregon School of Law, and New York University’s Graduate School of Arts & Science.

wig · Post by **wig** » 23 Jun 2022 08:50

https://www.businessworld.in/article/IA ... 22-433640/

IAF Splits $20 Bn Fighter Jet Procurement Into Two Programmes
extracts

the first part or phase of MRFA will involve the procurement of 54 foreign jets under the Buy Global (Manufacture in India) category of the Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP), with the contract being awarded to a foreign OEM. Of these, 18 will be procured in a flyaway condition from the OEM while 36 will be manufactured in India by a local partner selected by the OEM. This partner will be from the private sector.

The IAF is pushing for an early Acceptance of Necessity (AON) for Phase-I from the Defence Acquisition Council, and aims at issuing an RFP by the end of 2022.

Part-II of MRFA is not yet a programme but a concept, sources disclosed. It involves procurement of 60 jets from the Indian production partner selected by the OEM for Part-I. The Part-II procurement model will be Buy Indian, with the Indian production agency being the prime for the issuance of contract.

“Part-II is a concept which may translate into a programme after seven-or-eight years,” official sources said, acknowledging the uncertainty and ambiguity which such a time lag could impose on the project.

The IAF has bounced the revised plan off global OEMs interested in the acquisition. Boeing and Lockheed Martin of the US, Dassault of France, the Eurofighter consortium of Europe, Saab of Sweden and Sukhoi and MiG of Russia are in the IAF’s selection pool which involves eight fighter aircraft types.

OEMs which BW Businessworld spoke with have taken a dim view. “There’s no certainty of Phase-II. Which means that costs of setting up an assembly line in India will have to be amortized over just 54 aircraft (instead of 114), only 36 of which will be manufactured in India. This will push up costs significantly and make the MRFA very expensive for India,” said a senior executive of an OEM. “Business assurance is only from Phase-I, and we need to rework our business case for 54 fighters instead of 114,” he elaborated.

The other significant shift in the MRFA programme is the rejection of the Strategic Partnership (SP) Model by the IAF. “This is mainly on account of the unsatisfactory experience in the abortive Naval Utility Helicopter (NUH) programme, and the Project 75 (I) submarine project under the SP Model,” official sources explained.

NUH crashed after prolonged indecision by the Government on whether or not to allow the public sector in a model intended to create an alternate private sector complex in end-to-end manufacturing of a military platform. In Project 75(I), deep reservations were expressed by OEMs on fulfilling deep Transfer of Technology requirements to the Indian Strategic Partner and their relegation as junior associates in the programme.

basant · Post by **basant** » 25 Jun 2022 14:20

ramana wrote:basant 83 Mk1A will be built
And the 40 Mk1 will get upgraded eventually to Mk1A standard.
MK2 is needed to bring in design improvements. It will be an M2k class plane.
These will be about 200 to replace the Jaguars etc.
about 270 Su-30MKI also will be upgraded.
And along with the AMCA is coming up.
I don't see any role for MRFA except to line the pockets of the few.
Who we don't know?

Ramana garu, sorry I didn't reply in a while. Been upset with many things in the Defense spectrum.

I am not denying that Mk2 is much better than Mk1A. Had we been practically any other country, even Turkey, we would have already committed to Mk2. But we are not. We have solutions that the IAF leadership does not (want to) see. And political leadership that's not pushy enough in these affairs. That's been clear for a long time. Mk2 is a new airframe, notwithstanding its similarities with Mk1s. Going by similar timelines of Gripens, we can expect it to be ready for production only after 7-10 years -- more so given that IAF would want only FOC versions that can do all and will go for very few IOCs if forced. Remember that Gripen E was rolled out in 2016 with expected IOC in 2023 and FOC 2026. (FOC for Brazilian variant is 2024, but these are expected deadlines that were already extended.)

We need numbers to face Pak and numbers + quality to face the Chinese. Mk1As can easily match PAF, or at least most of the threats 1-1 with PAF fighters. But unfortunately, to dominate that front we don't have as many AWACS that we need that PAF has in large numbers. The numbers are in favour or PAF at 9 vs 6! Not every time and everywhere can one sneak up behind mountains like Mig-21 did during post Balakot. It can be argued that we can keep Tejas in air longer through mid-air refueling but we only have 6 (against 4 of PAF!)!

Sukhois need upgrade but there was no plan that was implemented whose fruits can be borne in next 2-3 years. God knows how long IAF will take to frame the (revised) ASQRs given the current constraints on the Russian front. I probably missed the details, of the 270 odd Sukhois that we have, how many new features were added during production over so many years? I am not talking of the Sukhoi 30Ks that were replaced. If nothing was done there, why did the IAF kept upgrading the specs for Tejas? Heck, even the canopy thickness was also changed from 16 to 20mm for Tejas during transition from IOC to FOC!

The threats we face are real and we almost went to war with Pak and China simultaneously! We need more capable fighters as of yesterday, at least some, so Rafales may be a good choice. If we are serious about such a threat, Mk2 may be too late, while Mk1A or improvements can be realized very quickly. TEDBF would be late too, but I'd rather have IAF's version to supplement Rafales the naval version with minimal modification for IAF too. Too many programs is not what we can sustain, and it is not because we don't have the economy or necessity. Pragmatism may be the way to go.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 28 Jun 2022 05:42

Challenging Rafale – IAF’s “Top Officials” Shortlist Only Aircraft That Can Outflank Dassault Jets To Win India’s MRFA Deal
https://eurasiantimes.com/challenging-r ... raft-mrfa/
27 June 2022

A question arises about which type of fighter jet the Indian Air Force requires, whether a multi-role fighter-bomber or an air-superiority fighter. The answer to this question is that India wants to acquire 114 medium-sized multi-role fighters under the MMRCA 2.0, which typically eliminates F-15EX and Su-35 fighter jets, both of which are air-superiority fighters. Now, four fighters remain in contention, Rafale, Gripen, F-21, and Eurofighter.

Air Vice Marshal Suryakant Chafekar (Retd) opined that the best choice for India is Rafale as the country has undergone an in-depth selection process and already has 36 Rafale jets. Maintaining the same type of jets in inventory is better for maintenance and spares. This typically rules out Eurofighter Typhoons. In my earlier analysis, we ruled out Saab Gripens. Despite being fantastic jets, there is no place for them in the Indian Air force as the country is acquiring indigenous LCA Tejas which are similar (even better in many aspects) to Gripens.

The Indian Air Force has been offered a new fighter aircraft, the F21, by Lockheed Martin. The F21’s development place stands in the form of a new Indian plant built by the local Tata Advanced Systems in conjunction with Lockheed Martin. These are the contenders for the deal led by Dassault Rafale, but things could go the other way very quickly if India is offered participation in the F- 35 program by the United States.

However, the US has never offered F-35s to India. An ex-fighter pilot, who wished to remain anonymous, told The EurAsian Times that India shouldn’t pick the former if given a choice between F-21 and F-35. “The F-21 and F-35 are two different generations and incomparable. The F-21 is an upgrade of the F-16. India should not opt for a glorified F-16 by another name. We shot one down from a MiG-21 ,” he noted.

Lt Colonet JS Sodhi (Retd) told The EurAsian Times that the US had not offered its F-35 fighter jets to India. He added, “However, given the aggressive stance being taken by China in expanding its footprints in the Indo-Pacific region lately and the applause India got in the recently concluded Quad summit in Tokyo on May 24, the US, you never know, might change its decision.

Anil Khosla, Former Vice Chief, IAF, told The EurAsian Times, "Why will any country part (on being asked about F-35) with its latest technology and if they do, there has to be a hidden agenda – maybe join the western camp. Going by history and past record – would it be prudent to rely on one camp? India could go for it if offered at an affordable cost, with no strings attached and considerable transfer of technology, Khosla said. Despite criticism, the final battle could be between F-21 and Rafale given that the US is unlikely to share its F-35 technology with India. Dassault should be the clear winner, unless the US manages to pull another trick from its bag, as it did in the case of Australia with the AUKUS deal.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 28 Jun 2022 08:16

Would India be susceptible to the US tricks. Given it's experience with the past US perfidy. Along with general tendency to wave it's stick. I don't believe that Indian government will in any shape or form would place it's testimonials in US arms.

Apache not withstanding.

Besides the F35 will kill AMCA for all intended purposes.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 29 Jun 2022 05:41

Click on the link below. The article is from Pages 10 to 11.

Buy and Make MRFA - A Win Win Situation
https://www.sps-aviation.com/e-magazine ... &year=2022
By Air Vice Marshal Sanjay Bhatnagar (Retd)

https://twitter.com/hvtiaf/status/15418 ... uHOHP8ZJhA ---> Below is a screenshot from the article above

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 30 Jun 2022 00:00

Selected OEM for multi-role fighter aircraft programme will have to ensure tech transfer: Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 491639.cms
27 June 2022

bala · Post by **bala** » 30 Jun 2022 00:23

The delusion level with "Tech Transfer" is very high. Besides screwdrivergiri, no OEM is willing to part with tech know-how-why. Even the most valuable partners did not provide such "tech transfer". Jigs, procedures, parts, training are the "transfer". Tis similar watching how cars are made by say Mercs/BMW/Wolkswagen on YT. Parts are in huge bins, sub-assemblies are worked upon by smaller teams, they are coordinated to final assembly with people fitting things/screwdriver etc, a quick test with special equipment and voila the plane appears at the end for test/qualification flights. What did anyone learn so far, besides the process - pretty useless other than some employment of folks. This is a mockery of the term "Make in India".

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 04 Jul 2022 07:07

Mihir is too funny! I full endorse this....

https://twitter.com/elmihiro/status/153 ... milsR21zJQ ---> We need a Tour of Duty for MMRCAs. Each aircraft serves for three years in the IAF and returns to its home country.

RCase · Post by **RCase** » 04 Jul 2022 09:21

Rakesh wrote:Selected OEM for multi-role fighter aircraft programme will have to ensure tech transfer: Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 491639.cms
27 June 2022

The only transfer these guys are craving for is monetary and having their kids taken care off in foreign countries. What the hell were they doing all these years when they kept procuring so many foreign platforms - Russian, British, French etc.? Can this chief elaborate on what specific technologies he wants transferred?

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 12 Jul 2022 15:26

Going to make a wild guess or a Suggestion on this this MRFA, MMRCA, MRCA drama and Naval MCA and going to do it before the 15th of August.
I am going to guess that one of these scenarios is not too far from what may happen.

Scenario A
1. Indian Navy will select the F-18 as the fighters for both of its Air Craft Carriers in a G2G Deal.
2. Indian Navy will transfer its entire MiG-29 wing to the Indian Air Force
3. Indian Air Force will select 60 or 54 Rafales as the MMRCA in a G2G deal and close the matter out finally.

Scenario B
1. Indian Navy will select the Rafale as the fighters for both of its Air Craft Carriers
2. Indian Navy will transfer its entire MiG-29 wing to the Indian Air Force
3. Indian Air Force will select 114 F-18s as the MMRCA in a G2G deal and close the matter out finally.

OR
Scenario C
I am totally wrong about the transfer to the Air Force thing.

But something is telling me that both the Navy and the Air Force will not be allowed to go for the same air craft. We will strategically balance this out between US & France. And yes the additional Su-30s will come but the additional MiG-29s will be\ might be supplied by the Indian Navy.

Anyway I wanted to submit my wild theory before any announcements or interviews begin about the air wing of the INS Vikrant

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 12 Jul 2022 18:33

Khalsa wrote:Going to make a wild guess or a Suggestion on this this MRFA...

I am going to remove the exact post in the Indian Naval Aviation thread because same discussions will happen in multiple threads. Please do not assume that I have purposely deleted your post. It still exists in this thread

Reply to your post;

1) It looks like the 114 MRFA deal is going to France. If you follow the recent events between India and France, it looks that way. A number of the weapons on the Rafale are ending up (or will) on the Tejas (Hammer, Meteor, etc). The recent Safran investments in India also point to that. The IAF also prefers the Rafale and that is not a secret. The IAF will not induct the F-18SH.

2) The Navy contest is a dark hole. The Navy is keeping its cards very close to its chest and is not going to reveal it, until required. Technically, it should be the F-18SH. Geopolitically, it should be the Rafale. The only way the F-18SH loses the technical round, is the Americans are not willing to do what the Indian Navy requires from their MRCBF. I am seeing BrahMos integration as one of them. There are other requirements as well.

3) The MiG-29K/KUB will continue to serve with the Indian Navy and on the Vikramaditya till the early 2030s, when she will be retired. They will not transfer the fleet to the IAF. I don't believe the IAF wants it. They want 114 MRFA.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 13 Jul 2022 18:27

Since the MRFA thread in various avatars has been making the rounds on BRF for more than a decade I thought it's time to evaluate the planes by a different metric....musical, film based and artistic based on the country of origin and the draw that it holds. Watch/listen to all of them and then decide.

(Mods can delete this freely at their discretion!!)

The Navy is receptive to all things US and in that spirit will be happy with this rendition of American Pie, one of the great American classics:

The Airforce has traditionally loved all things Russian and in that spirit of nostalgia, there is nothing that better captures the ethos of Russian romance than Lara's theme in Doctor Zhivago:

And not to be left behind, French patriotism has never been captured better than in this performance of La Marseillaise (the French National Anthem) by Mireille Mathieu with the Eiffel Tower in the background:

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 13 Jul 2022 19:57

Rakesh wrote:
Khalsa wrote:Going to make a wild guess or a Suggestion on this this MRFA...
Reply to your post;

Khalsa-ji, as a follow up to both our posts...see below. This reporter is the same one who stated that the 114 MRFA is still on track, despite all the flurry of media reports that the MRFA deal was cut in half. Those media reports were only partially correct.

IAF to vault Multi Role Fighter Aircraft Program under Buy Global, Make India; 114 Aircraft in the pipeline intact

If what Manish Jha is claiming below turns out to be true, it will be the ultimate coup that Safran (and France) will have pulled off. I still believe the technical contest will be won by the F-18SH in the MRCBF contest, unless there is some requirement that Boeing is just unable to fulfill.

The logic of what Manish says does make sense, but nothing logical works with India's defence procurement. The MRO announcement is for the LEAP turbofans. There was also another announcement for helicopter engines for the IMRH program. In addition, the GTRE-Safran JV for the AMCA turbofan is also coming. The MRO for the M88 turbofan will happen if Dassault wins the 114 MRFA contest and the 26+ MRCBF contest. They cannot announce the M88 MRO now, because that would bring the cat out of the bag. That will be announced when GOI indicates that it is Dassault who is the winner in the MRFA and MRCBF contests.

The tea leaves indicate a big win for Dassault, but lets see how this pan out.

https://twitter.com/Manish_K_Jha1/statu ... qHoGxHa6Cw ---> Safran trounce competition by announcing a $150 million MRO facility in India? It spills over 3 mega defense deals: MRFA 114 jets for IAF; Navy’s choice between Rafale & F/A-18 Super Hornet for IAC Vikrant; @SAFRAN offer to co-develop a 125 KN engine for AMCA. @rajnathsingh

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 13 Jul 2022 21:02

Khalsa-ji, also check this piece that just came out...

Outflanking Boeing, French Safran Helps Rafale ‘Score A Goal’ Over Super Hornet For Indian Navy, Air Force Deal?
https://eurasiantimes.com/safran-help-r ... rce-deals/
10 July 2022

With CFM engines expected to go up to 1,500 in the next few decades, Indian airlines will find it easier to fix them locally instead of sending them to MRO facilities in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Colombo. Global aircraft and engine makers have been reluctant to set up repair shops in India because of high taxes.

“We have clearly explained to the central government that the tax regime was a problem. We couldn’t establish any MRO activity in India because we were taxed twice in the previous tax regime. We told the government we would come if you changed this tax regime. And that’s what happened,” said Andriès. The slashing of the GST on MROs to 5% from 18% seems to have resulted from the engine maker’s demands on the government.

With the IAF’s Rafale and the Rafale Marine flying on Safran’s M-88 engine, it is unclear if the maintenance and upkeep of the powerplant will be undertaken there. But the expected deal between Safran and the Defence Research Development Organization (DRDO) to develop a 125 KN engine for the AMCA is eagerly expected to fruition.

Former IAF fighter pilot, Squadron Leader Vijainder Thakur said the Safran investment is part of ‘France turning on its full charm to ensure that Boeing doesn’t usurp the Rafale offer with lower lifecycle costs’.

“Rafale has an advantage since it is already in IAF inventory. But it’s likely that Rafale acquisition and lifecycle costs will be substantially greater than those of the Super Hornet. The IAF is already invested in F-404/F-414 engines and it would be easy for Boeing to set up an MRO for the engine in India,” Thakur added.

KSingh · Post by **KSingh** » 14 Jul 2022 21:34

Rakesh wrote:Khalsa-ji, also check this piece that just came out...

Outflanking Boeing, French Safran Helps Rafale ‘Score A Goal’ Over Super Hornet For Indian Navy, Air Force Deal?
https://eurasiantimes.com/safran-help-r ... rce-deals/
10 July 2022

“Rafale has an advantage since it is already in IAF inventory. But it’s likely that Rafale acquisition and lifecycle costs will be substantially greater than those of the Super Hornet. The IAF is already invested in F-404/F-414 engines and it would be easy for Boeing to set up an MRO for the engine in India,” Thakur added.

There’s no evidence that LCC of SH will be lower for IAF than Rafale especially when you add on fixed costs of ISE and infrastructure creation which have already been amortised with Rafale. Fixed costs of SH will thus be $4-5BN more than follow on Rafale to begin with.

Any fair assessment would only lead to more Rafales, but God knows what the real agenda is here, it certainly isn’t getting the IAF’s declining strength addressed.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 14 Jul 2022 21:45

KSingh wrote:There’s no evidence that LCC of SH will be lower for IAF than Rafale especially when you add on fixed costs of ISE and infrastructure creation which have already been amortised with Rafale. Fixed costs of SH will thus be $4-5BN more than follow on Rafale to begin with.

Any fair assessment would only lead to more Rafales, but God knows what the real agenda is here, it certainly isn’t getting the IAF’s declining strength addressed.

Sirjee, please do not speak negatively about Boeing or the Super Hornet. You will hurt the sentiments and the feelings

The pang and angst is too much to bear. A win for Dassault in the MRCBF contest would immediately raise their BP. For their sake, let's hope it is Boeing that wins.

Humour aside, is there anything logical with India's defence procurement? Everything is ad-hoc. If the IN feels it is justified to spend $4-5 billion more on the ISE and infrastructure for the F-18SH, then that is what will occur. If the Rafale M cannot make the cut, it does not matter at that stage. Then F-18SH it is.

KSingh · Post by **KSingh** » 14 Jul 2022 21:54

Rakesh wrote:
KSingh wrote:There’s no evidence that LCC of SH will be lower for IAF than Rafale especially when you add on fixed costs of ISE and infrastructure creation which have already been amortised with Rafale. Fixed costs of SH will thus be $4-5BN more than follow on Rafale to begin with.

Any fair assessment would only lead to more Rafales, but God knows what the real agenda is here, it certainly isn’t getting the IAF’s declining strength addressed.
Sirjee, please do not speak negatively about Boeing or the Super Hornet. You will hurt the sentiments and the feelings The pang and angst is too much to bear. A win for Dassault in the MRCBF contest would immediately raise their BP. For their sake, let's hope it is Boeing that wins.

Humour aside, is there anything logical with India's defence procurement? Everything is ad-hoc. If the IN feels it is justified to spend $4-5 billion more on the ISE and infrastructure for the F-18SH, then that is what will occur. If the Rafale M cannot make the cut, it does not matter at that stage. Then F-18SH it is.

Weren’t the IN forced to take cuts to their third P8I (10 became 6 units) before it was seemingly put on ice for good? So where is the $7-8+ billion the IN would need for 26 SH?

The chances of MRCBF leading to any orders is less than 5% in my entirely amateur opinion anyway but if it’s going to happen Rafale is the only logical choice on the table- yes logic and Indian procurement are pretty unrelated to one another but there has to be some sense of the sense of this within the MoD/GoI/PMO especially with the kinds of strategic investments india and France are signing/discussing. SH feels like it’s there just to avoid a single vendor situation, what sense is there in re-inventing the entire wheel for just 26 units?

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 14 Jul 2022 21:58

KSingh, one would be surprised at the number of times we reinvent the wheel. The well known MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 acquisitions of the 80s come to mind. What a sad & tragic story that was. How many fighter pilots' lives could have been saved by just following through on Dassault's offer of the 150 Mirage 2000H build program to the then Indira Gandhi Government. But no, we had to go in for the MiG-29. And we never even got a sizeable number of them either. As a result, the IAF continued with the MiG-21.

I really hope we do not repeat it this time around with the 114 MRFA and (even) the MRCBF contest. In fact, the IAF would not even have to purchase the Rafale had the Mirage 2000 production proposal gone through. No MMRCA, no MRFA, nothing.

KSingh · Post by **KSingh** » 14 Jul 2022 22:03

Rakesh wrote:KSingh, one would be surprised at the number of times we reinvent the wheel. The well known MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 acquisitions of the 80s come to mind. What a sad & tragic story that was. How many fighter pilots' lives could have been saved by just following through on the 150 Mirage 2000H build program that Dassault offered to the then Indira Gandhi Government. But no, we had to go in for the MiG-29. And we never even got a sizeable number of them either. As a result, the IAF continued with the MiG-21.

I really hope we do not repeat it this time around with the 114 MRFA and (even) the MRCBF contest. In fact, the IAF would not even have to purchase the Rafale had the Mirage 2000 production proposal gone through. No MMRCA, no MRFA, nothing.

Without going too deep into history I’m pretty sure the MiG-29 purchase was almost entirely because of the pressure Moscow exerted on india at the time. I’d like to imagine that Washington doesn’t have the same hold on Delhi in 2022

But my disappointment levels never seem to be exhausted when it comes to Indian defence decision making so who knows?

Either way MRCBF seems doomed to fail so I haven’t invested too much emotional baggage into it

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 14 Jul 2022 22:07

KSingh wrote:Without going too deep into history I’m pretty sure the MiG-29 purchase was almost entirely because of the pressure Moscow exerted on india at the time. I’d like to imagine that Washington doesn’t have the same hold on Delhi in 2022

But my disappointment levels never seem to be exhausted when it comes to Indian defence decision making so who knows?

Either way MRCBF seems doomed to fail so I haven’t invested too much emotional baggage into it

Unless my memory fails me KSingh, it was then Defence Minister R Venkataraman who went to Moscow and the Russians offered the MiG-29, knowing fully well that Dassault had offered the Mirage 2000 production line to India. He subsequently went in for the MiG-29 because it was cheaper. We paid for that cheaper cost through our nose in the long run.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 15 Jul 2022 10:48

KSingh wrote: There’s no evidence that LCC of SH will be lower for IAF than Rafale especially when you add on fixed costs of ISE and infrastructure creation which have already been amortised with Rafale. Fixed costs of SH will thus be $4-5BN more than follow on Rafale to begin with.

Any fair assessment would only lead to more Rafales, but God knows what the real agenda is here, it certainly isn’t getting the IAF’s declining strength addressed.

The lesser the types, easier the logistics. Thats a simple grad school gyaan - anyone who says otherwise has an agenda. A new type like F18 will bring in a plethora of new logistics challenges. If Navy uses rafale/ many low probability replacement items can share the same inventory bw AF and IN.

VishnuS · Post by **VishnuS** » 15 Jul 2022 11:05

YashG wrote: The lesser the types, easier the logistics. Thats a simple grad school gyaan - anyone who says otherwise has an agenda. A new type like F18 will bring in a plethora of new logistics challenges. If Navy uses rafale/ many low probability replacement items can share the same inventory bw AF and IN.

Yash bhai, the problem is Rafale can't fit on our aircraft carriers.

Unless IN wants to modify its carrier lifts, buying Rafale is pointless

KSingh · Post by **KSingh** » 15 Jul 2022 16:31

VishnuS wrote:
YashG wrote: The lesser the types, easier the logistics. Thats a simple grad school gyaan - anyone who says otherwise has an agenda. A new type like F18 will bring in a plethora of new logistics challenges. If Navy uses rafale/ many low probability replacement items can share the same inventory bw AF and IN.
Yash bhai, the problem is Rafale can't fit on our aircraft carriers.

Unless IN wants to modify its carrier lifts, buying Rafale is pointless

If this was true Dassualt wouldn’t have spent millions sending their Fighters to test at SBTF along with all the simulations done internally.

+ let’s not forget the SH cannot fit either carrier’s launch system (RGS) either. So in any case compromises will have to be made or the carriers modified, the IN has got themselves into quite the mess with their myopia

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 15 Jul 2022 18:10

KSingh wrote:
VishnuS wrote: Yash bhai, the problem is Rafale can't fit on our aircraft carriers.

Unless IN wants to modify its carrier lifts, buying Rafale is pointless
If this was true Dassualt wouldn’t have spent millions sending their Fighters to test at SBTF along with all the simulations done internally.;

+ let’s not forget the SH cannot fit either carrier’s launch system (RGS) either. So in any case compromises will have to be made or the carriers modified, the IN has got themselves into quite the mess with their myopia

In relation to the sentences I have bolded, the reports that I read were that neither aircraft would fit in the elevators as is. However the SH with folded wing tips would be canted at a slight angle in the elevator by having a permanent sloping floor and thereby fit in the elevator. In comparison the solution for Rafale was to detach the outer part of the wing every time the plane had to use the elevator. I would assume that Dassault feel that their existing relationship with the Indian Air Force plus the recent Safran initiative on the engine MRO side will overcome the steeper hurdle that the Rafale shipborne variant has to overcome in ease of handling via the aircraft carrier elevator. Let us see whether the Indian Navy feel the same way.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 15 Jul 2022 18:41

Just a curious and maybe a naive question, how much of an effort will it be to modify the lift at this stage or during its first maintenance period and by doing so will it be worth in the long term. Also, I may have missed it, will the TEDBF, when it comes, will it fit in the lifts. I believe when the IAC was designed it was to have MIG-29 or N-LCA.

KSingh · Post by **KSingh** » 15 Jul 2022 18:42

ldev wrote:
KSingh wrote: If this was true Dassualt wouldn’t have spent millions sending their Fighters to test at SBTF along with all the simulations done internally.;

+ let’s not forget the SH cannot fit either carrier’s launch system (RGS) either. So in any case compromises will have to be made or the carriers modified, the IN has got themselves into quite the mess with their myopia
In relation to the sentences I have bolded, the reports that I read were that neither aircraft would fit in the elevators as is. However the SH with folded wing tips would be canted at a slight angle in the elevator by having a permanent sloping floor and thereby fit in the elevator. In comparison the solution for Rafale was to detach the outer part of the wing every time the plane had to use the elevator. I would assume that Dassault feel that their existing relationship with the Indian Air Force plus the recent Safran initiative on the engine MRO side will overcome the steeper hurdle that the Rafale shipborne variant has to overcome in ease of handling via the aircraft carrier elevator. Let us see whether the Indian Navy feel the same way.

This is the closest I’ve seen to what the reality of the situation is. Like I said no solution is perfect or without integration issues, all those saying the SH is a plug and play solution whilst the Rafale is incompatible are flat out wrong. It’s a case of which package at a macro level represents is in the best interest not just of the IN but india as a whole. Unless there is some grand bargain with the US I’m not aware of there’s no way you can do the maths and not come to the conclusion that the Rafale is simply the best option on the table BY FAR from an economic and strategic perspective.

I’m yet to be convinced that the wingtip issue is enough to offset the gargantuan downside that comes with SH buy

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 16 Jul 2022 11:13

Rakesh wrote:
Khalsa wrote:Going to make a wild guess or a Suggestion on this this MRFA...
I am going to remove the exact post in the Indian Naval Aviation thread because same discussions will happen in multiple threads. Please do not assume that I have purposely deleted your post. It still exists in this thread

Reply to your post;

1) It looks like the 114 MRFA deal is going to France. If you follow the recent events between India and France, it looks that way. A number of the weapons on the Rafale are ending up (or will) on the Tejas (Hammer, Meteor, etc). The recent Safran investments in India also point to that. The IAF also prefers the Rafale and that is not a secret. The IAF will not induct the F-18SH.

2) The Navy contest is a dark hole. The Navy is keeping its cards very close to its chest and is not going to reveal it, until required. Technically, it should be the F-18SH. Geopolitically, it should be the Rafale. The only way the F-18SH loses the technical round, is the Americans are not willing to do what the Indian Navy requires from their MRCBF. I am seeing BrahMos integration as one of them. There are other requirements as well.

3) The MiG-29K/KUB will continue to serve with the Indian Navy and on the Vikramaditya till the early 2030s, when she will be retired. They will not transfer the fleet to the IAF. I don't believe the IAF wants it. They want 114 MRFA.

dear Admiral Sir. Totally with you (removing my dup post). All good sir and please don't ever explain yourself again, I am already embarassed about the last goof up I made in the JF-17 thread.

With Regards to the response and some lite moving events of yesterday and today. I am going to go with a little bit more solidly with my
scenario A.
- IN - F18 for both A/C
- IAF - Rafale (& I agree it is likely to exceed the 54 number if the Engine manufacturing is a go)
- Migs will go the Air Force. The reason I am talking about this will be to cover the attrition replacements + the old Algerian Stock we were once thinking of purchasing. It also provides buffer before the Tejas Mk2 arrives.

One thing I am beginning to see in your posts and arguments that Rafale will not only be a better outcome for the Air Force but also the Safran angle is more of a proof of where things are headed strategically. + the IAF just loves it French A/C.

On the other hand the IN has squarely and surely gone to bed with an American ecosystem through and through. Boeing Fits.

Anyhow I don't think its too long before the final chess piece moves are revealed or are visible.

KSingh · Post by **KSingh** » 16 Jul 2022 15:39

Khalsa wrote:Going to make a wild guess or a Suggestion on this this MRFA, MMRCA, MRCA drama and Naval MCA and going to do it before the 15th of August.
I am going to guess that one of these scenarios is not too far from what may happen.

Scenario A
1. Indian Navy will select the F-18 as the fighters for both of its Air Craft Carriers in a G2G Deal.
2. Indian Navy will transfer its entire MiG-29 wing to the Indian Air Force
3. Indian Air Force will select 60 or 54 Rafales as the MMRCA in a G2G deal and close the matter out finally.

Scenario B
1. Indian Navy will select the Rafale as the fighters for both of its Air Craft Carriers
2. Indian Navy will transfer its entire MiG-29 wing to the Indian Air Force
3. Indian Air Force will select 114 F-18s as the MMRCA in a G2G deal and close the matter out finally.

OR
Scenario C
I am totally wrong about the transfer to the Air Force thing.

But something is telling me that both the Navy and the Air Force will not be allowed to go for the same air craft. We will strategically balance this out between US & France. And yes the additional Su-30s will come but the additional MiG-29s will be\ might be supplied by the Indian Navy.

Anyway I wanted to submit my wild theory before any announcements or interviews begin about the air wing of the INS Vikrant

The American fixation for IN doesn’t mean automatic win for Boeing here. P8 and MH-60 were the best of their respective categories, SH is up against stiff competition with Rafale and it’s not like operating the Romeo and Poseidon offer ANY commonality for the SH whereas the Rafale already being present in india along with Safran and French strategic investments in general make for a huge advantage for them.

On top of this the the standard is the standard, you don’t actually get points for exceeding it under Indian procurement methodology (remember Parrikar wanted to implement T1/T2 bias). So if both meet the requirements (NSQR) both will be down selected and it will be purely up to cost (L1/L2).

Given that Boeing will always have to price in $3-5bn in additional fixed costs that Dassualt has already amortised in india (ISE, training, basing, infrastructure, support etc etc) it’s hard to see how Boeing wins on L1 especially as we already know the export price is quite eye watering for the SH (RAAF) and that’s without carrier integration costs

The IN already has little money, I can’t see how they can eat up huge upfront costs just because they apparently like American, which again I don’t see as something they are actively pursuing just happens to be some of the best stuff out there for them.

+ the 29Ks aren’t going to the IAF that’s for sure. They have to serve for at least another 12-15 years until TEDBF is ready and by then their shortened service lives will have long since been depleted

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 19 Jul 2022 16:08

KSingh wrote:
The American fixation for IN doesn’t mean automatic win for Boeing here.

Dear KSingh Sir.

Bit of a light read on what some seniors at navy may be taking it more seriously than me.
https://www.ajaishukla.com/2022/07/boei ... e-off.html

On the matter of amortisation of costs, you completely cut through butter like a hot knife. No point in debating this.
On the matter of MiG-29 to IAF. I will stand on my wild theory. They might go in 5 years or 7 but likely to go. Again its a wild guess of this poster on BRF. Please feel free to ignore me.

Overall, I believe the IN is fixated on the US ecosystem and see little value on being a secondary partner with the relationship with Safran and Rafale. They will see the F18 as a generational stop gap before the TEDBF arrives with American engine or Safran engines. Again this is my trying to read the tea leaves with CAATSA, STOBAR trial news (as much as I can get my hands on), analysis on BRF of everything that we disect ....

I believe Navy goes for F-18SH with two squadrons with the first squadron for the INS Vikrant off the manufacturing line.

KSingh · Post by **KSingh** » 19 Jul 2022 17:19

Khalsa wrote:
KSingh wrote:
The American fixation for IN doesn’t mean automatic win for Boeing here.
Dear KSingh Sir.

Bit of a light read on what some seniors at navy may be taking it more seriously than me.
https://www.ajaishukla.com/2022/07/boei ... e-off.html

On the matter of amortisation of costs, you completely cut through butter like a hot knife. No point in debating this.
On the matter of MiG-29 to IAF. I will stand on my wild theory. They might go in 5 years or 7 but likely to go. Again its a wild guess of this poster on BRF. Please feel free to ignore me.

Overall, I believe the IN is fixated on the US ecosystem and see little value on being a secondary partner with the relationship with Safran and Rafale. They will see the F18 as a generational stop gap before the TEDBF arrives with American engine or Safran engines. Again this is my trying to read the tea leaves with CAATSA, STOBAR trial news (as much as I can get my hands on), analysis on BRF of everything that we disect ....

I believe Navy goes for F-18SH with two squadrons with the first squadron for the INS Vikrant off the manufacturing line.

You’re entitled to your opinion but I just can’t make the dots connect in my own mind. SH’s STOBAR performance is not unique- Rafale M was at SBTF a few weeks before and demonstrated their ability to do the mission

I just can’t see how costs can be anything but the elephant in the room, $3-5bn added to total LCC is a huge weight around Boeing’s neck. No amount of IN preference if it exists can overcome this. The L1/L2 system (rightly or wrongly) still exists as the way these deals progress.

On the 29K front; the more I think about it the more I’m certain it’s not feasible in the slightest, they will have to serve for the next 15 years easily from Vikky (maybe Vikrant also if/when MRCBF fails to deliver anything to IN). And these will be 15 hard years from carriers and at coastal bases, they are still relatively new and struggling deeply. Another 15+ years of battering won’t leave them in any position to be handed over to another force. This is before we factor in inevitable airframe losses

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Jul 2022 17:28

Rakesh wrote:
KSingh wrote:There’s no evidence that LCC of SH will be lower for IAF than Rafale especially when you add on fixed costs of ISE and infrastructure creation which have already been amortised with Rafale. Fixed costs of SH will thus be $4-5BN more than follow on Rafale to begin with.

Any fair assessment would only lead to more Rafales, but God knows what the real agenda is here, it certainly isn’t getting the IAF’s declining strength addressed.
If the IN feels it is justified to spend $4-5 billion more on the ISE and infrastructure for the F-18SH, then that is what will occur. If the Rafale M cannot make the cut, it does not matter at that stage. Then F-18SH it is.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Jul 2022 19:14

KSingh wrote: SH’s STOBAR performance is not unique- Rafale M was at SBTF a few weeks before and demonstrated their ability to do the mission

All reports that I have read say that the Rafale could not fit into the Vikrant elevator. Dassault's solution was to redesign the wing and make part of it detachable!! If you were in carrier operations in the Indian Navy, how happy will you be to detach a portion of each wing every time the aircraft has to taken up or down in the elevator. What happens if in a time of high tempo operations, the maintenance staff forget to tighten one of the attachment points? It is the air worthiness of the plane which will be impacted, could even result in a crash. Even without such a dire outcome, attaching and detaching part of the wing adds one more item to be completed which will affect high tempo operations. Also there are only 46 Rafale Marine in operation in the entire world currently and then 26 more of them will have a bespoke detachable wing. What will that means in terms of ongoing maintenance cost over the years. How durable will these detachable wings and their attachment points be when exposed on a continous basis to salinity on an aircraft carrier. And finally the Indian Navy wants some two seaters, not available in the Rafale. How on earth will anyone expect the Indian Navy to accept all these handicaps in a ship borne fighter, it would have been the Mig 29K saga all over again, just with a different aircraft and will definitely handicap the mission.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 19 Jul 2022 19:33

KSingh wrote:
Khalsa wrote: On the matter of MiG-29 to IAF. I will stand on my wild theory. They might go in 5 years or 7 but likely to go. Again its a wild guess of this poster on BRF. Please feel free to ignore me.
On the 29K front; the more I think about it the more I’m certain it’s not feasible in the slightest, they will have to serve for the next 15 years easily from Vikky (maybe Vikrant also if/when MRCBF fails to deliver anything to IN). And these will be 15 hard years from carriers and at coastal bases, they are still relatively new and struggling deeply. Another 15+ years of battering won’t leave them in any position to be handed over to another force. This is before we factor in inevitable airframe losses

Khalsa-ji, the MiG-29K will not go to the IAF. It will stay with the IN and will continue to serve on the Vikramaditya.

The new airwing (Rafale-M or F-18SH) will serve on the Vikrant. The MiG-29K/KUB fleet will be retired in the early 2030s.

KSingh is correct.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 19 Jul 2022 19:38

kit wrote:
Rakesh wrote: If the IN feels it is justified to spend $4-5 billion more on the ISE and infrastructure for the F-18SH, then that is what will occur. If the Rafale M cannot make the cut, it does not matter at that stage. Then F-18SH it is.

Et Tu Brutus?

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 19 Jul 2022 20:20

kit wrote:
Rakesh wrote: If the IN feels it is justified to spend $4-5 billion more on the ISE and infrastructure for the F-18SH, then that is what will occur. If the Rafale M cannot make the cut, it does not matter at that stage. Then F-18SH it is.

@ kit....look below.

Indian Navy to go for govt-to-govt deal with US or France for fighter planes
https://theprint.in/defence/indian-navy ... s/1025631/
05 July 2022

The sources, however, refused to divulge how Rafale and Super Hornets have performed and only said that both aircraft are “decent”. The final report is likely to give more details of both aircraft.

https://twitter.com/DefenceDecode/statu ... sdxe97AQ4Q ---> Indian Navy has completed trials for deck-based fighters F/A-18SH of Boeing and Rafale-M of Dassault Aviation. "Trials of Rafale & Boeing F-18 have been done to prove their capability of operating from aircraft carriers. Our aim is indigenisation. We have a twin-engine deck-based fighter aircraft plan, but it will take some time," Vice Admiral SN Ghormade. A report is awaited, after which the case will be taken up. It will be an inter-governmental agreement.

===========================================

After reading the above, compare it to what Boeing is saying....

F/A-18 demonstrates ability to launch from Indian carriers with ‘upsized' loadout
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/nava ... ed-loadout
14 July 2022

^^^ Boeing states in the above article that the F-18SH was able to exceed the RFI by carrying more than one anti-ship missile. Also the Harpoon is more potent and up-to-date than the Exocet.

Boeing looks to India for Super Hornet success after European setbacks
https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/air- ... t-success/
17 July 2022

^^^ Boeing - in the above article - lists all the advantages that the F-18SH brings to the table. Also see the bit about the industrial package.

===========================================

Kit ---> Connect the dots

Read between the lines

Parse what the good Vice Admiral is saying

BTW, Dassault is eerily silent. They can see the writing on the wall. What do they know?

KSingh · Post by **KSingh** » 19 Jul 2022 21:12

ldev wrote:
KSingh wrote: SH’s STOBAR performance is not unique- Rafale M was at SBTF a few weeks before and demonstrated their ability to do the mission
All reports that I have read say that the Rafale could not fit into the Vikrant elevator. Dassault's solution was to redesign the wing and make part of it detachable!! If you were in carrier operations in the Indian Navy, how happy will you be to detach a portion of each wing every time the aircraft has to taken up or down in the elevator. What happens if in a time of high tempo operations, the maintenance staff forget to tighten one of the attachment points? It is the air worthiness of the plane which will be impacted, could even result in a crash. Even without such a dire outcome, attaching and detaching part of the wing adds one more item to be completed which will affect high tempo operations. Also there are only 46 Rafale Marine in operation in the entire world currently and then 26 more of them will have a bespoke detachable wing. What will that means in terms of ongoing maintenance cost over the years. How durable will these detachable wings and their attachment points be when exposed on a continous basis to salinity on an aircraft carrier. And finally the Indian Navy wants some two seaters, not available in the Rafale. How on earth will anyone expect the Indian Navy to accept all these handicaps in a ship borne fighter, it would have been the Mig 29K saga all over again, just with a different aircraft and will definitely handicap the mission.

Firstly we have NO idea about the solution(s) Dassualt has offered to be compatible with Vikrant, we know they have offered something as they are sending their birds to SBTF and responded to the RFI. It’s up to the IN whether they accept their solutions, with the correct precautions and SOPs I don’t see why the proposals we have heard about can’t be made viable. There’s always bespoke treatment needed for every new type.

Secondly let’s accept that neither Rafale nor SH will be optimised for the Vikrant or without operational compromises as the IN in their wisdom designed (with Russian help) the entire aviation complex around the 29K.

The SH has to (according to public reports) utilise a specialised jig that angles the airframe, to fit on the Vikrant’s lifts. Furthermore it won’t be compatible with the restriaining gear system (RGS) onboard either carrier so it’ll have to rely entirely on toe brakes as it powers up to make the STOBAR launch. I shudder to think what will happen when/if the brakes in either wheel fail- that will send the jet either into the water or into the island/parked aircraft/deck personnel.

This is why they’ve sanctioned TEDBF as it’ll be a clean sheet design that will fit perfectly within the 29K’s footprint. Ironically the only other fighter in existence today that can use the 2 carriers’ RGS is the NLCA.

Of course all of the above could be addressed by installing new lifts, and a redesigned aviation complex if the IN wanted to spend a few billion (and years in dock) to refit their brand new carrier and the one that already spend most of her life in port effectively rendering them carrier-less again for the foreseeable future. But the IN seems to be doing everything they can to avoid that hence this mess.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 19 Jul 2022 21:35

Meanwhile the KF21 has just made its first flight.