Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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SSridhar
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:Read the speeches by Republic of China intellectual Hu Shih. He puts all those acts in the CoH.
Qing order collapsed due to the indignities heaped on ordinary Chinese.

Specifically COH period is 1839-1949.
ramana, my response was with respect only to your following quote, which talks of geopolitics.
Far from being hobbled by a Sinocentric worldview, Qing China's officials and scholars paid close attention to foreign affairs. To meet the growing British threat, they adapted institutional practices and geopolitical assumptions to coordinate a response across their maritime and inland borderlands. In time, the new and more active response to Western imperialism built on this foundation reshaped not only China's diplomacy but also the internal relationship between Beijing and its frontiers.
The collapse of the Qing is not entirely due to these. All I am saying is that during the terminal phase of the Qing dynasty, they had their plate full when it came to geopolitics not only within China itself but also in the region surrounding them. It was of an order of magnitude severer than what China had ever seen before.

It is no doubt that the sense of humiliation felt by the Han due to the occupation of China by foreigners was a big cause of the Qing's collapse. That was the reason for the Boxers' Revolution which even the Qing Army joined against the 'foreigners'. But, there were several other reasons as well. I will list the following reasons for the collapse of the Qing dynasty, not in any particular order:
  1. The Chinese revolutionaries were influenced by developments in Japan, the Meiji Restoration, the establishment of Democracy, and the phenomenal economic, political and military growth that the 'ancient rival', Japan, began to experience. They thought that the Chinese dynastic rule stood in the way of modernization. Even the Qing recognized that and tried to change. For example, they abolished the 'Examination' System that has been in vogue for nearly 2000 years.
  2. Thinkers like Kang Youwei, Liang Qichao and later Sun Yat-sen & Song Jiaoren appeared on the scene. The 1895 defeat of Qing China at the hands of Japan, the loss of Korea & Ryukyu, and granting of the MFN label to Japan added fuel to these thinkers that unless Imperialism was done away with, China won't see similar progress. The Shimonoseki Treaty was humiliating to the Han and the Qing were blamed for that.
  3. The sentiments behind the Boxers' Revolution and the Beijing siege were exploited. Some of these thinkers escaped from China and even travelled to and stayed in Japan and the US to direct movements in China.
  4. A campaign was started that the Manchus were alien and barbarian Tatars and China must be restored to the Ming
It has always been the attempt of all CPC leaders from Mao to XJP to intertwine domestic narratives with China's foreign policy. They needed a nationalistic fervour to retain themselves in power, justify harsh measures, suffering by common folks etc. For example, the longstanding narrative that China won against 'Fascist Forces in WWII' but was deprived of a place at the high table is CCP's historiography entwining (false) internal and external events. Similarly, XJP's 'Chinese Dream' is a domestic narrative inextricably linked with CPC's worldwide hegemony by c. 2050.

CoH has also been repeatedly invoked from Mao to XJP to serve their needs.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Thanks SS.
Great elaboration.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

70 years of PRC infographic:

https://multimedia.scmp.com/culture/art ... 9A241.html

SCMP has a lot of Infographics on China.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Infographic on Long March:
https://multimedia.scmp.com/culture/art ... 10A66.html

This Mao's retreat to the hills reminds us of Zhuge Liang's advice to Lu Bei to create a mountain retreat base for Wu in the Three Kingdom era.
Mao was said to sleep with a copy of Sam Kok to remind himself of Zhuge Liang's strategy.

This retreat to mountains or "going to the rural" theme dominates Chinese history and even PRC.
Real China is in the rural. The urban are mostly traders, scholars, and artisans of Confucius pyramid.
Since the Yellow Turbans during Han, it's the rural that can bring down the Emperor and thus the dynasty.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

In the midst of the Trump Presidency, PRC made a Make in China 2025 plan.

https://multimedia.scmp.com/culture/art ... 9A197.html
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/barbarindian/status ... 6738800648

Image

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-business
Chinese Developer Shimao Fails to Pay $1 Billion Dollar Bond
Property firms have led record wave of offshore defaults
Shimao says it’s in talks with creditors, hires advisers



Image
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by kit »

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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

China’s Crony Capitalism: The Dynamics of Regime Decay
Minxin Pei

When Deng Xiaoping launched China on the path to economic reform in the late 1970s, he vowed to build “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” More than three decades later, China’s efforts to modernize have yielded something very different from the working people’s paradise Deng envisioned: an incipient kleptocracy, characterized by endemic corruption, soaring income inequality, and growing social tensions. China’s Crony Capitalism traces the origins of China’s present-day troubles to the series of incomplete reforms from the post-Tiananmen era that decentralized the control of public property without clarifying its ownership.

Beginning in the 1990s, changes in the control and ownership rights of state-owned assets allowed well-connected government officials and businessmen to amass huge fortunes through the systematic looting of state-owned property―in particular land, natural resources, and assets in state-run enterprises. Mustering compelling evidence from over two hundred corruption cases involving government and law enforcement officials, private businessmen, and organized crime members, Minxin Pei shows how collusion among elites has spawned an illicit market for power inside the party-state, in which bribes and official appointments are surreptitiously but routinely traded. This system of crony capitalism has created a legacy of criminality and entrenched privilege that will make any movement toward democracy difficult and disorderly.

Rejecting conventional platitudes about the resilience of Chinese Communist Party rule, Pei gathers unambiguous evidence that beneath China’s facade of ever-expanding prosperity and power lies a Leninist state in an advanced stage of decay.
Shows how XJP anti-corruption drive and "Marxism with Sinic characteristics" are a return to Deng's Sixth Revolution.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Anujan »

I listened to this podcast and found it interesting

https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-pod ... hina-wrong
For decades, experts and analysts have written in great detail about the importance of liberalization and its role in promoting democracy and other western values. Specifically, many believed that once a state began this track towards liberalization, open markets and a liberal democracy was inevitable. Yet, the several decades following Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to China has proven differently, as China continues to grow more distant and confrontational with the West.

Lawfare Fellow in Cybersecurity Law, Alvaro Marañon, sat down with Aaron Friedberg, professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University. Aaron is an expert on the relations between China and the West, and has written numerous articles and books assessing the economic, military and political dangers of this rivalry.

They explored his new book, “Getting China Wrong”, and discussed the origins of the West’s engagement with China, how and why the West miscalculated the Chinese Communist Party’s identity and objectives, and how the U.S. and Biden administration can start getting China “right.”
Essentially the argument is that while the west wanted a Sino-Soviet split, China saw the west as an inevitable enemy and itself as the last bastion of socialism.

West thought that economic liberalization will result in political liberalization and democracy, whereas the communist party saw itself as the latest chinese dynasty intent upon self preservation (therefore democracy is a no-no, it is akin to asking a monarchy to implement democracy, no monarchy, unless compelled, is going to do so).

The author also argues that US policy has been short sighted, intent upon defeating the soviets, without considering the possibility that China might be the bigger eventual challenge.


One fascinating observation is that right from the begining, the Chinese wanted basic science and technology to become an industrial and technological power. They were not merely satisfied with foreign investments, and preferential trade treatments.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Anujan wrote:I listened to this podcast and found it interesting

https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-pod ... hina-wrong
For decades, experts and analysts have written in great detail about the importance of liberalization and its role in promoting democracy and other western values. Specifically, many believed that once a state began this track towards liberalization, open markets and a liberal democracy was inevitable. Yet, the several decades following Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to China has proven differently, as China continues to grow more distant and confrontational with the West.

Lawfare Fellow in Cybersecurity Law, Alvaro Marañon, sat down with Aaron Friedberg, professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University. Aaron is an expert on the relations between China and the West, and has written numerous articles and books assessing the economic, military and political dangers of this rivalry.

They explored his new book, “Getting China Wrong”, and discussed the origins of the West’s engagement with China, how and why the West miscalculated the Chinese Communist Party’s identity and objectives, and how the U.S. and Biden administration can start getting China “right.”
Essentially the argument is that while the west wanted a Sino-Soviet split, China saw the west as an inevitable enemy and itself as the last bastion of socialism.

West thought that economic liberalization will result in political liberalization and democracy, whereas the communist party saw itself as the latest chinese dynasty intent upon self preservation (therefore democracy is a no-no, it is akin to asking a monarchy to implement democracy, no monarchy, unless compelled, is going to do so).

The author also argues that US policy has been short sighted, intent upon defeating the soviets, without considering the possibility that China might be the bigger eventual challenge.


One fascinating observation is that right from the beginning, the Chinese wanted basic science and technology to become an industrial and technological power. They were not merely satisfied with foreign investments, and preferential trade treatments.
My conclusion is that the Communists are another dynasty in Authoritarian China.
Happy that all these experts are also saying the same.
I reached my conclusion by looking at Continuity and Dynastic Change in China.
The quest for technology is to undo the Century of Humiliation (COH) that Mao's revolution had a primary goal.
Sadly the US has experts who are deluded with hubris.
They have spent a lifetime misleading the US people who pay their salary.

The misreading started with Sun Yat Sun's role and ideas.
It was to undo the COH.
However, he could not do that and paved the way for Mao Zedong's revolution.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Anujan »

The podcast has something to say about COH as well. It is part of the origin myth of the CCP. The narrative is that "for a century china was humiliated, the Chinese communist party then came around and is committed to making china strong and to avenge this humiliation". Therefore cleverly using nationalism and xenophobia to drive support for the communist party.

On a personal note, I think China-Russia socialism has interesting parallels with Shia-Sunni split. One point of view argues that one of the reasons for Shia sunni split was because the Persians wanted their own stamp on Islam and thought of themselves as civilization and culturally superior to the Arabs. Who somehow invented Islam but were too backward to understand or to practice it well. Hence the Persian brand of Islam is the superior variety.

China has a similar attitude towards socialism. That the Chinese are culturally and civilizationally superior to the Russians and socialism with Chinese characteristics is the superior brand.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opin ... nce-waning
China’s global influence is waning
Lt Gen PR Shankar Retd, July 9, 2022

The Chinese elite capture-debt trap model is crude in comparison to the US-aid based approach.
China’s rise, role in international affairs and the influence it wielded was natural. Geopolitically, it had brought America’s “unipolar” status to an end. A multipolar world with two dominating poles—the US and China emerged. In the new geostrategic era, a rising China had locked horns with a declining US to ensure that the “old order passeth”. However, that theory is now on shaky ground as China’s influence waned. The shift started, with Covid duly exacerbated by the Ukraine war fallout.
Influence comes in many forms. At the apex is political influence based on common ideologies or common interests. Military influence is derived from use of force coercively. Soft power influence enables getting things done willingly. Technological dominance creates its own influence. Social media has emerged as a great influencer. All this is underpinned by economic power, which has an outsize influence on global affairs. Money speaks in all languages. If China’s influence is waning, it leads one to question: how is it so? While there is no single metric which can define the wane, there are cases which indicate the subtle shift. Hence it is first necessary to examine some of these cases.
The Angolan civil war ended in 2002 after 27 years. China waded into fund the wrecked country’s reconstruction. It encouraged Chinese companies to venture into oil rich Angola. The resulting infrastructure boom in housing, roads, dams, railways and power plants was based on the Angola Model in which “oil-backed” loans were used to access Chinese funding. Angola became a star performer in Africa with an average economic growth of 11% annually between 2001 and 2010. This model was tweaked as “resource-backed” loans for other African countries. All was well. Oil prices crashed and Angola went into recession in 2016. The economy contracted for five consecutive years. Covid-19 exacerbated the problem. The country narrowly avoided a debt default recently. The new government seeks to diversify its oil-dependent economy and reduce its excessive reliance on China. Economic diversification is “a matter of life or death”. The end of the Angolan model is underscored by a decrease in Chinese population from over 300,000 to fewer than 20,000 in Angola. Chinese efforts to establish a naval base in Angola has met with resistance and has provoked a stern response from the US. This will have reverberations in the rest of Africa.
Recent surveys in South Korea indicate a trust deficit with China. External factors, international politics, differences in historical and cultural perceptions, nationalistic outlooks and China’s aggressive diplomacy including gobbling up of Hong Kong have sent alarm bells ringing among Koreans who consider it their long term threat. South Korea has pivoted to the United States and Japan to help preserve peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and in the region. It has also indicated that it wants to go nuclear. Recently, the new South Korean President, Yoon Suk-yeol was its first leader to attend a NATO summit. The gap between China and South Korea is clearly widening.
When the US withdrew from Afghanistan it was expected that China will fill the gap, stabilise the country and exploit its mineral resources. Despite being proactive, Chinese ties with the Taliban remain uncertain. Afghanistan remains volatile. China has reservations about a stable and profitable partnership. Chinese companies are reluctant to enter into infrastructure projects due to security concerns. China remains worried about the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which is a “direct threat to China’s national security and territorial integrity”. The Chinese have realised that “the internal situation in Afghanistan is very complex and not everything can be managed by China”. Recent attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan have queered the pitch for extending the CPEC into Afghanistan. Limits of Chinese influence have been clearly exposed.
China was Sri Lanka’s “all-weather friend”. However, it is now displaying an arm’s length fair-weather approach to the island’s economic meltdown. Political influence wielded through the Rajapaksas has evaporated. The Chinese leadership is not planning to get involved in any international plan to bail out Sri Lanka. Their pitch has been fully queered. Also, China’s loan disbursing appetite has flagged down since domestic growth slowdown is causing it to turn inward. As India and IMF are playing an increasing role in the affairs of the nation, Chinese influence is waning.
.....
Gautam
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Both are predatory lending. Nothing elegant or crude.
It is all based on lending to someone who can't repay and then imposing restrictions using rules-based order backed by gunboats.
Chinese don't have gunboats to impose. Hence influence waning.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Here gunboats mean military power that can be projected.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Wronged by Empire: Post-Imperial Ideology and Foreign Policy in India and China
Manjari Miller

Although India and China have very different experiences of colonialism, they respond to that history in a similar way—by treating it as a collective trauma. As a result they have a strong sense of victimization that affects their foreign policy decisions even today.

Wronged by Empire breaks new ground by blending this historical phenomenon, colonialism, with mixed methods—including archival research, newspaper data mining, and a new statistical method of content analysis—to explain the foreign policy choices of India and China: two countries that are continuously discussed but very rarely rigorously compared. By reference to their colonial past, Manjari Chatterjee Miller explains their puzzling behavior today. More broadly, she argues that the transformative historical experience of a large category of actors—ex-colonies, who have previously been neglected in the study of international relations—can be used as a method to categorize states in the international system. In the process Miller offers a more inclusive way to analyze states than do traditional theories of international relations.
China had a Century of Humiliation (COH)
India had a Millenium of Humiliation (MOH)
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/world/house-of- ... te-problem

House Of Cards: China’s Real Estate Problem
To push couples into making the purchase, some were giving away a session with the wedding photographer for free, some were giving a one-plus-one deal on apartments, some offered free furniture and appliances, and some went too far, offering a plot to grow vegetables with every villa. Eventually, the watermelons arrived, eight years later.

In China, the entire real estate market is similar to a ‘House of Cards’, with local banks, local administrations, and the developers being the parts of the pyramid. The fall of one is enough to usher in the collapse of the entire sector, and this is why Evergrande, one of the biggest real estate groups in the world, with liabilities in excess of $330 billion, came into picture.

Around $19 billion of it is owed in dollar bonds alone. In 2022 alone, bond payments in excess of $7 billion were due for the developer.

While the exact details of Evergrande’s restructuring are currently under wraps, the objective would be to protect the Chinese homebuyers before the offshore bond holders. Almost two million in number, the restructuring process will ensure that the existing buyers do not lose out on their homes, most of them unbuilt as of today, and will factor the need to keep the company’s other real estate projects going.

The offshore bond holders, however, will have to prepare for a haircut or a prolonged payment process, and perhaps may have to settle for as much as 20 cents on a dollar.

What complicates their case further is the workaround Chinese companies have been employing for almost a decade now, also known as the Keepwell obligations. Just as is the case with the variable interest entity (VIE) structures with the stock market listings in the United States, the bond market equivalent is the Keepwell obligation, which is nothing but a word of promise from the borrower.
Will this affect Xi Ping's election?
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Rudradev »

This is an article in which the author (an American) reviews recent reports about the Chinese surveillance state and warns that the American response has been to construct a similar surveillance state apparatus at home.

https://www.realclearworld.com/articles ... 41132.html
Earlier this week, The New York Times reported on its year-long deep dive into 100,000 documents connected to technology bids for China’s surveillance technology.

Among its findings, the Times reported that:

*China has more than one-half of the world’s 1 billion surveillance cameras. Many facial recognition cameras now have sound recorders able to catch conversations within a 300-foot radius.
These cameras, long in use in retail, restaurant and traveling spaces, are beginning to invade private spaces like hotels, lounges, and residential buildings.

*China is expanding its reliance on IMSI catchers, a device that mimics cellphone towers to intrude into cellphones and sweep up identifying and location data from many phones in a wide area.

*China is collecting data to integrate voiceprints, faceprints and DNA samples to weave a comprehensive portrait of the individuals who make up its huge population.

Each of these technologies alone constitute a hideous invasion of personal privacy. Woven together by artificial intelligence under the iron-fisted control of the regime, they constitute the first surveillance system to fully match George Orwell’s nightmare vision in 1984. In one bid request, The Times reports, the police candidly admitted they aim at “controlling and managing people.”

If this wasn’t spooky enough, consider another story in The South China Morning Post, which reports China is developing the ability to detect brainwaves while men watch online p0rnography (which is illegal in China). This nascent ability to identify the brain’s reaction to a hot button set of visual images could be just the beginning in the development of technology designed to detect subtler forms of emotional mind-reading (like a hostile thought when presented with the image of the Beloved Leader).

China’s breakout into Orwellian surveillance isn’t just a tragedy for the people of China. It poses two dangers to Americans. The first is that the Chinese Communist Party’s hunger for data is leading it to suck up as much global personal information it can hack or buy. This will only get worse as Chinese-made appliances connect to each other over the Internet of Things. The other danger is that a homegrown Panopticon is emerging in the United States. We already see a network being woven together by the spontaneous emergence of robust and integrated technologies, with American authorities sometimes exhibiting the same hunger toward total surveillance as those in China, with the occasional breach of the law and social norms thrown in.

*In 2018, 16 U.S. federal agencies and 75 state and local agencies, employ IMSI devices, commonly called “stingrays,” to can sweep up personal and location data from Americans’ cellphones.

*A Legal Aid Society lawsuit in New York claims the police have been putting together a “rogue” database of DNA taken from cigarettes, soda bottles and chewing gum. The FBI’s Combined DNA Index System had, as of 2018, 13 million DNA profiles of Americans.

*As many as 3,000 local and state agencies rely on facial recognition technology. One private company has amassed more than 1 billion faceprints, worldwide.

Federal agencies routinely get around the Fourth Amendment requirement to obtain a probable cause warrant to scan our personal information by purchasing it from digital data brokers.

Many elements of China’s surveillance state are falling into place across the United States. This is the natural result of a lack of oversight and governing standards to place guardrails around the uses of these technologies. As these technologies become ubiquitous, they will also become more interoperable – able to work together to follow our every utterance and action.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Its also leading to advances in AI that are needed to sift through the vast data.
Suggest folks watch "How China became Rich" on Amazon Prime.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

vijayk wrote:House Of Cards: China’s Real Estate Problem

Will this affect Xi Ping's election?
This is the subprime crisis of China.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

SS Last year I talked to a Wall Street honcho about the Chinese RE crisis.
He thought Chinese will manage it as they didn't rely on overseas borrowings. And can manage the financial implications as it's under their control.

Overseas borrowings can get recalled by lenders. That's the risk.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by kancha »

vijayk wrote:https://swarajyamag.com/world/house-of- ... te-problem

House Of Cards: China’s Real Estate Problem
The offshore bond holders, however, will have to prepare for a haircut or a prolonged payment process, and perhaps may have to settle for as much as 20 cents on a dollar.
Will this affect Xi Ping's election?
Quite a bunch of pension funds from the USA are substantially invested in Chinese real estate. On paper, their investments are safe since property prices haven't gone down at all, or by much so far. However, their money is firmly entombed in the ghost cities and pretty much unrecoverable atleast in the near future because real estate sales don't seem ready to take off just yet.
And in case a tumble happens in Chinese real-estate, the mango American too will feel the pinch, what with a bulk of their savings vanishing into thin air.
Won't be very good when it happens
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by sanjaykumar »

A white man invested in Chinese real estate? :eek:
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by NRao »

4 days ago:

Joe Biden says Pentagon does not support Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan

2 days ago:

China strengthens warning to US about Nancy Pelosi’s planned Taiwan trip
Beijing alarms White House by privately suggesting possible military response to Speaker’s visit
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

NRao wrote:
Beijing alarms White House by privately suggesting possible military response to Speaker’s visit
Typical Chinese bluster.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by NRao »

SSridhar wrote: Typical Chinese bluster.
TBD

THE problem: You - unfortunately - quoted one of two.

You absolutely need to take the US mil aspect seriously. Absolutely need to.

The UKR "conflict" has changed plenty.

Hope to post in the UKR fallout thread some time
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

NRao Whats the linkage?
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Maj Gen Ashok Kumar writes on Tibet Question?
https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/ ... 17841.html

He suggests getting a treaty signed with govt of Tibet in exile led by Dalai Lama.

While on the surface it looks super idea, it's another waste of effort.
It will be similar to British treaties signed by a weak Qing dynasty.

And doesn't understand the importance of Dalai Lama to China.
While the party leaders are Communists the vast majority are not.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Vadivel wrote:The new normal in India-China relations

Ananth Krishnan



Welcome back to The India China Newsletter! It's been three months since I last sent out this newsletter. I'm happy to be writing to you again, and particularly happy to be coming to you from Beijing - finally. The move here - and the many complications involved - kept me occupied the last couple of months, which explains my silence.

This issue will look at the state of play in India-China relations after the latest 16th round of talks on the still unresolved Line of Actual Control (LAC) situation, and several interesting developments on the economic front between India and China, and try and make sense of what’s happening. I’ll also share my experience of travelling back to Zero-Covid Beijing and what that’s been like.

This issue is slightly longer than the usual at 4,000 words (there’s lots to catch up on!), so you may wish to click on the headline in your email to read in your browser.

Before we get into the India-China situation, a note on what it's been like coming back to the mainland. It’s been quite surreal entering Zero-Covid China, which has, at times, felt like a parallel universe after being in India. I plan to write more about this soon. What's usually been a painless half-hour train ride across the border to Shenzhen - one I've taken innumerable times - is now a day-long ordeal that involved two of the most painful PCR tests I've ever taken - one on each side of the border, barely a few hours apart. The nasal swab on the Hong Kong side was so deep and invasive it left me with a splitting two hour headache. Entering the Shenzhen side, the first big difference from Hong Kong - which has been caught in some purgatory between an ineffective attempt at Zero-Covid and a partial opening up to the world - was that every worker was in full PPE.

https://indiachina.substack.com/p/the-n ... medium=ios
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Basically, the Covid protocol is quite severe in mainland China.
Shows the contagious nature of the variants and the low efficacy of vaccines.
Authorities are not taking any chances.
Wish India does similar measures in hot spots like Kerala.


Maybe India should consider Covaxin supplies to Hong Kong as a gesture in the spirit of Dr. Dwaraknath Kotnis.
For those who don't know Dr. Kotnis went to China during the Imperial Japanese invasion and provided medical care which is highly appreciated by China.
At that time India was under the British, yet an Indian went to help China which was under attack by another Asian country Imperial Japan.
And died in China.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ldev »

Joe Kernen of CNBC's Squawk Box in an irreverent moment last week (I'm paraphrasing):

" Nancy Pelosi wants to go to Taiwan to check up on and review her investments in tech stocks!!"

"Joe Biden does not want her to go to Taiwan because it will result in a kerfuffle with China which will tank Hunter Biden's investments in China" :lol:

On a more serious note, I think this period before the 20th Party Congress is the calm before the storm. Once Xi formally get's his third term and is named "People's Leader" or whatever title he wants so that he is seen as Mao's equal, he will lose all restraint and go all out in trying to achieve his economic and territorial goals.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

I think people have not realized this despite my many mutterings.

He is beyond Mao and belongs with the great Emperors of the past.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by NRao »

ramana wrote:NRao Whats the linkage?

Sorry, missed this.

USN is not ready for a fist fight so close to the Chinese coast, where A2/AD is very formidable.

And, USN has had no time to prep.

======================

Understandably, in Ukraine, artillery has walked away with the spot light. However, IMVVVHO, it is EW that is the guiding factor in the UKR conflict. And, IMO, will be the deciding factor here too, with the PLA.

Let us see. Aug 4th seems to be the day and Clarke in the Philippines the supposed start of the trip.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Thread by Cest Moiz on Pelosi trip.

https://twitter.com/CestMoiz/status/155 ... wC2Ww&s=19
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

The Pelosi visit to Taiwan reminds XJP the challenge was and is the US and in East Asia.
Not waste effort in Himalayas.
Indo China Sea is the other hot spot.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ldev »

Unification of all "Chinese lands" is an emotional goal for the Chinese Communist Party in general and for Xi Jinping in particular. He wants to be remembered as the leader who finally re-united all Chinese lands. Taiwan is a priority but Zangnan which translates as South Tibet in Mandarin or Arunachal Pradesh is also on the cards. IMO the India China border dispute will not be settled until either India hands over Arunachal Pradesh to China or China suffers a resounding military defeat which will put this issue on the back burner for the next 50-60 years.

Image
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

From Lt Gen PR Shankar's blog Gunner shot

https://www.gunnersshot.com/2022/08/a-p ... ri-by.html
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Ldev, Lets see.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:The Pelosi visit to Taiwan reminds XJP the challenge was and is the US and in East Asia.
Not waste effort in Himalayas.
Indo China Sea is the other hot spot.
ramana, the more I think about the May-July, 2020 events of Ladakh, the more it appears to me these days, that it was more an attempt to keep India bottled up without being able to offer any means of support to the rest of the QUAD if things took a turn for the worse in the Indo-China Sea (ICS).

It wanted to expend minimum energy to do so and any incidental gains of territory in the bargain were welcome. As usual, the Chinese tactic has always been to aim for multiple gains. The continued intransigence in the border meetings is a pointer to this approach. At the same time, the May 2020 events lay the foundation for PLA for any contemplated future action too. Wang Yi wants us to 'accept' this as the new normal and get on with China.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by suryag »

PRC announces sanctions on Taiwan? Am curious why Taiwan of all the nations, sorry how can you sanction your own state(which you consider it so)
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

^Also, how do sanctions suddenly become sanctimonious when China has denounced them always and as recently as in the UKR war?
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